Great job to get out of it before things could really turn, but that’s still such a costly error by IKF. Give up a run that shouldn’t have happened, make Bieber throw a dozen extra pitches, give the Yankees some hope. Not cool.
Very true, Gerry. Likewise with Clement’s hit, if McMahon had shifted a step to his left instead of his right, possible double play ball.
That said, the Jays baserunning has been brilliant/insane and daring the entire series. Force the Yankees to make plays and so far they’re just not doing so.
True — but the move paid off. Every multiple-runners-on situation is huge right now, especially with a 6-3 lead. Time to go all out to win this one, worry about tomorrow tomorrow.
Already forced McMahon out of the game for a PH. McMahon has been one of the Yankees best hitters recently, and he’s one of their better defenders. Another slight advantage accruing to the Blue Jays in this game.
If the Blue Jays can apply some pressure with the bats in the next couple of innings, they could break this thing open. New York doesn’t have a lot of great options remaining in the bullpen, unless they want to “break glass in case of emergency” and use Schlittler.
Overall I think the Jays ability to put the ball in play combined with the atrocious Yankees defense will have us pull us ahead. The grand equalizer = Vladdy right now.
Schneider arguably got greedy pinch-hitting Barger for IKF with a solid lead after the Yankees brought in Cruz. He maybe should have stayed with the status quo for defensive reasons and because IKF is an experienced veteran in a key ballgame.
The problem when you PH early is that the player can get exposed later on — as Barger was there, striking out against the lefty Tim Hill with the go-ahead runner on second base.
personally, i think schneider made all the right calls but the players are not delivering. normally, barger is good defensively at third base and I think the switch made sense for many reasons but some are IKF was not doing great on either side of the ball and barger is a better hitter against righties.
As for the beiber hook -- it just wasn't a good night for him and the bullpen i think was more likely than beibs to keep the yanks in check. didn't happen but ...
I started the game 45 minutes late. I really disliked the the Shane Bieber pull. I would have let him go until another batter reached. He made good pitches to Chisholm.
The Barger pinch hit I also didn't like. Fluharty call from pen was also not a move I liked. All of this happened in the first 3 innings...up 5 runs. It's like he's managing scared or paranoid. Now instead of Bieber giving up the lead and only one pitcher used (worse case) the Jays head into the 5th using 3 pitchers and given up the lead. I just think it's wishful to think you can close out the Yankees for 6 innings with your starter and two top BP arms now out of the game.
I know I'm late on this, but I don't understand how Varland didn't waste a pitch or two outside the zone with Judge -- How can you give him anything to possibly turn on with an 0-2 count? Devastating.
I'm not trying to go negative, I've just seen the Yankees beat us so many times in the Bronx. Here's hoping they've stemmed the bleeding and will find a few more runs to win this thing!
4th pitcher after 4.1 innings. It's possible to over manage. I'm not going to say this manager made the wrong calls. I just would have preferred a bit of confidence in the SP.
blu-j: I completely agree. 0-2 to Judge and Varland has a great knuckle-curve. Have to throw one low and away there I think, similar to the one he just struck out Stanton on. Then maybe a fastball away or high and away, etc.
More context... when I saw Bieber struggling I didn't think "he's off tonight so bring someone else in." I thought "it's going to be tough to hold this offense, minimize the damage and get me 5 IP before I go to the BP."
The Jays have run with aggressive pulls throughout the postseason under Atkins/Schneider. We should probably just expect it to be a regular part of their philosophy.
Pulling Bieber seemed a little premature. That being said, Gausman looked like he was very close to getting out of his inning when he was pulled.
They can still win this game but why the ultra aggressive pitching changes when in the lead? Now that they are behind we will probably see the same pitcher for a few innings.
Bad defense and bad pitching makes it hard to win games. Problem with Varland remains, no command. It was a helluva swing by Judge, but Varland also threw 3 pitches and didn’t change Judge’s eye level once. Still lots of time left for their own comeback now.
If the Jays lose this game, then what do they do tomorrow? They have to run the same relievers out there again and hope they shut the Yankees down. I think they should have at least tried to get Bieber to get to the 5th inning. Now it's essentially 2 bullpen games in a row if they can't make a comeback here. What a potential disaster.
Just one of the worst defensive games I remember this season. Two errors, Vlad missing a grounded he should have had and now Santander just missing a routine fly out. Cost them a bunch of runs.
Santander might have injured his wrist or hand on the diving attempted catch.
The question for Schneider is whether to go with Gausman game 4 and Yesavage in game 5, or a bullpen game (and likely loss against Cam) in game 4, placing all bets on a Gausman/Trey game 5 in Toronto.
If you wanted to make the case for Gausman in game 4, you could focus on the fact that he didn’t throw a ton of pitches in game 1. Not sure what I would do in that situation.
If you’re saving him for game 5, does Yesavage also pitch in game 5? What is the realistic plan to win this series if the Blue Jays lose game 3 tonight?
Madison Shipman and Joe Siddall on the broadcast agreeing that pulling Bieber was the right call, pointing out that he didn’t look good and was leaving a lot of pitches middle-middle.
Yeah that doesn't convince me. You don't have a starter for game 4 so...
Also, Bieber is a mix and match pitcher m. He can get away with middle pitches even though it's not ideal. Hitters can't really sit on his pitches like they can Varland.
Bieber looked awful. If they had left him in, it would have been to maybe on or two more batters and then he'd be out for top of lineup. There was no way he was going to face them again. Ernie doing his part but rest of offense has checked out since relievers came in.
Pulling Bieber was probably the right move because Flu promptly escaped the jam. Everything comes back to the Barger error, which opened the door to the Yankees comeback. Sometimes you only get one shot.
Bieber did not look good. I had no issues with pulling him. The Jays were leading and needed the pen to lock things down. Unfortunately the defense let them down and Varland was giving up home runs (which I'm sure pleased at least one poster here).
The biggest issue is that Bieber not giving them length combined with the team blowing the lead means that Game 4 is going to be tough to win. They really needed him to pitch at least 5. I would have tried to see if Bieber could have gotten out of the 3rd, so you can nitpick on when exactly to pull him, but otherwise, I think it was smart to pull him before he blew the lead. He didn't look like he had much in the tank tonight.
The thing about Gausman is that he has already been dependant on extra rest in recent weeks. Reducing his rest to less-than-normal seems risky.
Having Gausman-Yesavage-Seranthony-Hoffman available in game 5 might be the most important thing right now. Because right now it feels like that’s where we’re headed.
Madison, explaining why she agreed that pulling Bieber was the right call, noted that of the 12 balls put in play against him, 8 of them came off the bat at 100+ MPH. He was getting hit hard.
Team just looked shell shocked after the Barger error/Judge homer. All is not lost but they have to play way more competent defensively than what we saw tonight (with this level of brilliant insight it’s a wonder I don’t work as an MLB analyst somewhere). That was flat out weird and so irritating.
Jays have been really good at grinding starters to dust. Continuing to do so against Schlittler would help things a ton.
Even if it’s advantage Yankees tomorrow (playing at home with Schlittler starting), wins are not guaranteed in baseball. Play hard, execute well, deploy the bullpen arms well, and the Blue Jays could win tomorrow. Show up and compete and good things can happen. Worst case, you’re playing a game 5 with some really good arms available on the mound.
Glevin - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 12:07 AM EDT
(#469893) #
If Jays had had even just one of Bieber not sucking/bullpen not sucking/defense not sucking/offense after third inning not sucking, they still might have won the game. Just an all-around terrible performance except for a few hitters.
For lineup tomorrow, it's funny because I would have gone IKF in this game because he hits RH velocity.
Probably 35-40% chance of a win tomorrow, give it your best shot and maybe you pull it out. If not, push all the chips to the middle of the table and play game 5 at the RC behind Gausman, Yesavage and the best leverage bullpen arms on the team.
Michael - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 04:45 AM EDT
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I wonder if you start bullpen like an opener and then assess do you put one of Yesavage or Gausman in the 3rd inning or something if the Jays do well in the first few innings, but go full bullpen if the game isn't close.
Gerry - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 05:30 AM EDT
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When Barger pinch hit for IKF so early it reminded me of the Bobby Cox days. Cox would do that too and that exposed hitters to wrong side matchups late in the game.
scottt - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 05:38 AM EDT
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When Schlitter had his historical Red Sox erasing outing the ump was calling strikes several inches over the zone. Yesterday the ump's zone was the opposite, visibly lower than the actual zone.
This can matter a lot for some pitchers. Fluharty and Fisher struggled with high balls that should have been strikes.
Katie - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 07:01 AM EDT
(#469898) #
I'm not sure the what the difference is between the yellow and white boxes, but in either case, that chart illustrates how helpful it was for the Yankees to have Warren eat up all the garbage innings in Game 2 and how it may hurt us today that Schneider had to/decided to use Varland and Dominguez on Sunday.
Schneider has done a good job this year, but his Achilles Heel as a manager is getting overanxious and making too many moves to try to lock down a particular result.
The momentum has shifted and now it's up to the Blue Jays to get it back. It will be important for the hitters to stay within themselves as they try to do this. The temptation will be to press and that is not going to work.
Glevin - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 08:53 AM EDT
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What I think is very odd is knowing you're going to throw a bullpen game and still choosing Bruihl over Bassit/Scherzer. There is no ghost runner in the playoffs either so any extra inning game means you need someone to go for bulk innings. To me, the scenarios where you are using Bruihl are really limited but scenarios you need a long-man are not.
Gerry - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 08:54 AM EDT
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A lot of todays prospects rests on Eric Lauer. If he can handle the lefty Yankee hitters for 3-4 innings the Jays should be in decent shape. If he cant then it could be game five.
Another question is whether the Blue Jays will be able to put some disruptive pressure on Schlittler early and score some runs, or will he be able to settle into a rhythm, get comfortable, and put up a bunch of zeros?
dalimon5 - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 10:33 AM EDT
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I heard a podcaster mention that Chris Bassitt can be in play. Is it possible he can be added to the roster some how? I thought it was a closed case that he is not eligible. Podcaster isn't run of the mill "Joe Blow."
Bassitt could theoretically be activated to replace an injured pitcher. It’s not clear how legit the injury needs to be. Here’s what MLB says on the matter:
A club may request permission from the Commissioner's Office to replace a player who is injured during the course of a series, but that player is then ineligible for the rest of that round and the subsequent round, if there is one. A pitcher may be replaced only by another pitcher, and a position player only by another position player.
IMO the biggest killer is the obsession with using Santander when he clearly isn't hitting or fielding yet. His bat seems close but this isn't horseshoes or hand grenades. Having him start vs a LHP really was weird. Given how they've played Lukes was a far better choice and would've been able to make that play Santander screwed up.
If he had wanted to make a really bold move, the manager could have replaced Santander with Straw right after the two-run single. In other words, take the found money of the two-run hit and immediately pivot to a defensive upgrade to protect the 6-1 lead.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 11:54 AM EDT
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I like Santander using this round to try to round into form. It could pay big dividends if facing the Dodgers in the WS. There's some easy moves that could be done to mitigate his defense:
Move him to DH and let Springer play RF
Replace him with Straw or Lukes after a lead
I think it's important to try to get him to full form which looks to be happening soon. Especially with the likelihood of Bichette missing another round or two.
IKF made some key errors right after he was acquired by the Blue Jays late this season. What is his defense like at the moment (that is, in October 2025, not at some earlier point in his career)? Something to consider. It’s not necessarily helpful to assume he’s a “Gold Glove” defender as the Sportsnet broadcasters sometimes do.
man it sucks that fricken IKF could plausibly be the reason the season unravelled, given there's actually never been a good reason to even have him on the team.
Wouldn’t it be wonderful if we all found the sort of unconditional love Varland and IKF have found in John Schneider.
Oh well, no point dwelling on the past - on to the next. Still have two chances to knock the Yankees out, one of them at home. Definitely the underdogs tonight but overall chances remain in their favour.
Apart from yesterday’s game, Varland has been good lately, and he had that great opener performance (2 IP) late in the regular season.
What that all adds up to at this point, I’m not sure. Guessing he’ll be mixing in a number of breaking balls and maybe a changeup or two in tonight’s stint. Let’s hope he can throw strikes and not give up any long balls. When he isn’t on, he can be vulnerable on both FBs and hanging breaking balls.
man it sucks that fricken IKF could plausibly be the reason the season unravelled, given there's actually never been a good reason to even have him on the team."
They were up 6-1 when IKF left the game. Pretty hard to blame it unraveling on him. In fact, in retrospect, they'd have been better leaving him in because Barger's error was so much more consequential.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 01:03 PM EDT
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I feel like there is a significant delta between how good the FO thinks Varland is and how good he actually is. Much like with IKF. You would hope that they would not let bias creep into their decision making but that's clearly what has happened here. I don't know how you know days in advance that you are going with an opener in Game 4, very likely to be Varland based on what happened against Boston, but then proceeding to use him for the first 3 games anyway (one of which being a lopsided win for the Jays). Now he's starting the most important game of the season with his 4th appearance in 5 days, after giving up 2 home runs (and lost the team the game) less than 24 hours ago.
I don't have an issue with using Varland as an opener in general, but then don't use him in Game 2 when the Jays were leading by 123 runs. I don't see this ending well for the Jays tonight.
oh to be clear I also love Varland. I wasn't trying to insinuate that they were wrong for loving him - I think they're right to view him as their best reliever. And I'm not surprised at all that a guy like Hoffman has been nowhere to be seen in any of the big matchups so far.
though I think using Varland for a 4th time in 5 days tonight might be pushing it.
It's fairly obvious that Hoffman is being held back for high leverage situations late in the game, as they have been wont to do all season unless he needs work.
If Hoffman is throwing 97 with command of the fastball, as he was in his last outing, I think he'll be good when called upon.
I wonder if a club has ever used two openers in a playoff game. If they are going to start Varland, it won't be for more than an inning. You might want to have another right-hander go another inning, and then bring on Lauer for 3-4 innings.
I'm hoping to see an outfield of Schneider, Varsho and Lukes, and an infield of Barger, Gimenez, Clement and VGJ, against the right-hander today.
and by "fairly obvious" you mean the fact that Hoffman has been used only once so far this series, in a low leverage situation, and not once in the many high leverage situations we've faced so far.
You must have missed the "late in the game" part, uglyone. That's what managers save their closers for. Such a situation did not arise in Game 2 or Game 3.
well whatever rationale is being used, it kept Hoffman out of the biggest game of the year, which was within 3 runs either way from the 3rd to the 9th, even though Hoffman was the most rested pitcher on the team.
There was no chance Schneider was going to use his closer in the 5th inning last night. You can continue to believe it's because they've lost faith in Hoffman though if you'd like...it will be disproven in a few hours, for better or worse.