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One more, if you please

Matchup

Bieber (4-2, 3.57) vs Rodon (18-9, 3.09)
ALDS Game 3 - Toronto at New York | 169 comments | Create New Account
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electric carrot - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#469762) #
earlier in the season ned flanders would have got called out on ball 3 of that at bat.
Gerry - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#469763) #
That's incredible. There's hot and then there is whatever Vlad is.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#469764) #
half a billion, baby
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#469765) #
in for defense you say.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#469766) #
thanks IKF.
Eephus - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#469767) #
Not what you want from a “defensive specialist”
electric carrot - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#469768) #
i just realized they're batting clement ahead of santander.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#469769) #
Rice ain't a first baseman.
Eephus - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#469770) #
Great job to get out of it before things could really turn, but that’s still such a costly error by IKF. Give up a run that shouldn’t have happened, make Bieber throw a dozen extra pitches, give the Yankees some hope. Not cool.
Katie - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#469771) #
As was said in the other thread, if you wanted to put a defensive specialist in there, you could have had Davis at 2B and Straw in the outfield.

Right now, that looks like it would have been the far better choice, as it's cost them one run and 12 pitches for Bieber.
Glevin - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#469772) #
IKF never made sense here. What's with all these high popups off Rodon?
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#469773) #
still can't believe we don't play schneider every day.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#469774) #

Arden Zwelling
@ArdenZwelling

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s bat speed on his first-inning homer was 85.1-mph — just shy of his season-high 86-mph set in May.

So far this postseason, Guerrero's average bat speed (78.9-mph) is MLB's highest and two mph faster than it was during the regular season (76.7-mph)
James W - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#469775) #
There's that vaunted Yankees defense!
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#469776) #
attaboy Davis that's some heads up shit right there.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#469777) #
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#469778) #
we like our team gary.
92-93 - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#469779) #
Ernie!!!

Naturally Vlad shouldn’t have gone because they were risking injury with Bellinger throwing.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#469780) #
Ernie rules btw
92-93 - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#469781) #
Using your best infield defense made plenty of sense with Bieber on the mound tbh
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#469782) #
SANTANDER BABY!!!
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#469783) #
smart of us to bring our Man in White on the road with us this time.
92-93 - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#469784) #
Who is Gary?
Glevin - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#469785) #
Great ab by Santander. Jays are relentless.
electric carrot - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#469786) #
nice timing on the hook aaron.
jjdynomite - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#469787) #
Wow Rodon doesn't even make it through the 3rd.
Michael - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#469788) #
Yeah, the jays sure play different at home... or something.

I like that stat that the Yankee starters in the first 3 games have no outs in the 4th inning.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#469789) #
don't be a smart mouth 92-93
Gerry - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#469790) #
Game of inches. If Bellinger caught that ball, Davis Schneider could have been doubled off.
92-93 - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#469791) #
Huh? I don’t get the joke.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#469793) #
barry. not gary. my bad.
Eephus - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#469794) #
Very true, Gerry. Likewise with Clement’s hit, if McMahon had shifted a step to his left instead of his right, possible double play ball.

That said, the Jays baserunning has been brilliant/insane and daring the entire series. Force the Yankees to make plays and so far they’re just not doing so.
Glevin - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#469795) #
Get someone up. Bieber not looking sharp.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#469796) #
they've been on Bieber tonight, especially the big righties.
electric carrot - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#469797) #
i'm inclined to give bieber one more line drive then pull him.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#469798) #
Just tuning in now…did I miss anything exciting?
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#469799) #
they're not giving up unfortunately.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#469800) #
Where was that 3-1 pitch to Chisholm?!?
electric carrot - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#469801) #
good call schneider
blu-j - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#469802) #
"Wow Rodon doesn't even make it through the 3rd."
Unfortunately, neither does Shane.
92-93 - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#469803) #
I don’t like this pull. John is asking for a lot here from his bullpen.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#469804) #
True — but the move paid off. Every multiple-runners-on situation is huge right now, especially with a 6-3 lead. Time to go all out to win this one, worry about tomorrow tomorrow.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#469806) #
"Where was that 3-1 pitch to Chisholm?!?"

he called that pitch for us the other way at least once maybe twice. can't be mad.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#469807) #
yeah i think bieber had to be pulled unfortunately.

not that i'm happy with trying to go 6 innings with the pen of course.
electric carrot - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#469808) #
regular seaon i think the hook was too quick. but in a game where you can eliminate the yanks -- i say just on time.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#469809) #
Already forced McMahon out of the game for a PH. McMahon has been one of the Yankees best hitters recently, and he’s one of their better defenders. Another slight advantage accruing to the Blue Jays in this game.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#469810) #
....and McMahon's missing defense immediately pays dividends...
Gerry - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#469811) #
The Jays are carrying 11 relievers so they can afford to pull Bieber and have a bullpen game tomorrow.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#469812) #
18 outs. Start the counter.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#469813) #
If the Blue Jays can apply some pressure with the bats in the next couple of innings, they could break this thing open. New York doesn’t have a lot of great options remaining in the bullpen, unless they want to “break glass in case of emergency” and use Schlittler.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#469814) #
that's 1
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#469815) #
why did barger call for that Schneider could have easily got there. dammit.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#469816) #
now fluharty is rattled. dammit.

some costly costly errors tonight.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#469817) #
Brutal error, but just have to keep getting outs.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#469818) #
Hate the Bieber call, and the Fluharty call.

Overall can’t complain, but somebody from further than Nova Scotia wants Schneider “wants to murder him”, (not really).
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#469820) #
please don't give judge this moment. please.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#469821) #
not ideal.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#469822) #
Barger error…devastating

Varland 0-2 pitch to Judge…devastating
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#469823) #
I did not trust Varland in that moment, but they’ll get it back.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#469824) #
​not gonna lie that was actually a cool moment.

now we can beat them and they can't blame it on judge who has actually been awesome this series.
James W - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#469825) #
I'm curious how many parks that isn't a homer in.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#469826) #
I still think the Blue Jays have a great shot to win. The Yankees bullpen is not good.
Glevin - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#469828) #
Need the defense to tighten up.
Katie - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#469829) #
If the Jays have Schneider at 2B, Straw in RF and Clement at 3B, they might have not allowed four of these runs.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#469830) #
Overall I think the Jays ability to put the ball in play combined with the atrocious Yankees defense will have us pull us ahead. The grand equalizer = Vladdy right now.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#469831) #
Schneider arguably got greedy pinch-hitting Barger for IKF with a solid lead after the Yankees brought in Cruz. He maybe should have stayed with the status quo for defensive reasons and because IKF is an experienced veteran in a key ballgame.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#469832) #
I think we forget that Ernie played through a broken hand for a while there.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#469833) #
tough luck but santander taking some good hacks is very good news.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#469834) #
Admittedly I liked the Barger for IKF swap.

How could anybody not love Ernie Clement right now.

Honestly Santander has been swinging it pretty good, even if Judge made made a good grab there.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#469835) #
The problem when you PH early is that the player can get exposed later on — as Barger was there, striking out against the lefty Tim Hill with the go-ahead runner on second base.
electric carrot - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#469836) #
personally, i think schneider made all the right calls but the players are not delivering. normally, barger is good defensively at third base and I think the switch made sense for many reasons but some are IKF was not doing great on either side of the ball and barger is a better hitter against righties.

As for the beiber hook -- it just wasn't a good night for him and the bullpen i think was more likely than beibs to keep the yanks in check. didn't happen but ...
dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#469837) #
I started the game 45 minutes late. I really disliked the the Shane Bieber pull. I would have let him go until another batter reached. He made good pitches to Chisholm.

The Barger pinch hit I also didn't like. Fluharty call from pen was also not a move I liked. All of this happened in the first 3 innings...up 5 runs. It's like he's managing scared or paranoid. Now instead of Bieber giving up the lead and only one pitcher used (worse case) the Jays head into the 5th using 3 pitchers and given up the lead. I just think it's wishful to think you can close out the Yankees for 6 innings with your starter and two top BP arms now out of the game.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#469838) #
a clean inning here would do wonders for them and us.
blu-j - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#469839) #
I know I'm late on this, but I don't understand how Varland didn't waste a pitch or two outside the zone with Judge -- How can you give him anything to possibly turn on with an 0-2 count?  Devastating.

I'm not trying to go negative, I've just seen the Yankees beat us so many times in the Bronx.
Here's hoping they've stemmed the bleeding and will find a few more runs to win this thing!
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#469840) #
nails
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#469841) #
Varland is back to being bad Varland…at the worst possible time. Gah.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#469842) #
uh oh
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#469843) #
Varland will ultimately be the move we shouldn’t have made at the deadline and the move we shouldn’t have made tonight.
blu-j - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#469844) #
"a clean inning here would do wonders for them and us."

Alas....
Glevin - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#469845) #
Bad versions of every pitcher so far tonight.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#469846) #
4th pitcher after 4.1 innings. It's possible to over manage. I'm not going to say this manager made the wrong calls. I just would have preferred a bit of confidence in the SP.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#469847) #
blu-j: I completely agree. 0-2 to Judge and Varland has a great knuckle-curve. Have to throw one low and away there I think, similar to the one he just struck out Stanton on. Then maybe a fastball away or high and away, etc.
Michael - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#469848) #
I don't know that Varland gets much blame, it seemed like he made good pitches, the Yankees just hit them.

The Yankees are a top flight offense.
blu-j - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#469849) #
If they can't come back and win this, what will the pen availability look like tomorrow?  We still have at least 3+ innings to get through.

Can't give up on this one, of course, but tomorrow could be challenging, even with so many pitchers on the roster.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#469850) #
More context... when I saw Bieber struggling I didn't think "he's off tonight so bring someone else in." I thought "it's going to be tough to hold this offense, minimize the damage and get me 5 IP before I go to the BP."
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#469851) #
Also: I didn’t mind going inside to Judge with the 100 MPH FB, but at 0-2 you have to go up and in, not just in.
Katie - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#469852) #
The Jays have run with aggressive pulls throughout the postseason under Atkins/Schneider. We should probably just expect it to be a regular part of their philosophy.

Pulling Bieber seemed a little premature. That being said, Gausman looked like he was very close to getting out of his inning when he was pulled.

However, that was the sixth and not the third.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#469853) #
i think he's safe on 2nd.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#469854) #
I am curious to see who is going to pitch the 6, 7, 8 and 9th. And then tomorrow...
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#469855) #
Wheels coming off. The Barger error was the pivot point. No margin for error against the Yankees in their ballpark.

Comeback still possible, of course.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#469856) #
vladdy makes the 3rd bad defensive miscue of the game.

nerves.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#469857) #
They can still win this game but why the ultra aggressive pitching changes when in the lead? Now that they are behind we will probably see the same pitcher for a few innings.
electric carrot - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#469858) #
at this point i am expecting both teams will be in double digits when the game is over. i think the result is completely up for grabs.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#469859) #
​bloop and a blast let's go.
Hodgie - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#469860) #
Bad defense and bad pitching makes it hard to win games. Problem with Varland remains, no command. It was a helluva swing by Judge, but Varland also threw 3 pitches and didn’t change Judge’s eye level once. Still lots of time left for their own comeback now.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#469861) #
ok so now a clean inning is kind of a necessity.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#469862) #
If the Jays lose this game, then what do they do tomorrow? They have to run the same relievers out there again and hope they shut the Yankees down. I think they should have at least tried to get Bieber to get to the 5th inning. Now it's essentially 2 bullpen games in a row if they can't make a comeback here. What a potential disaster.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#469863) #
Anyone else worried we're going to see Gausman tomorrow on short rest because of today's managerial decisions?
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#469864) #
so in the statcast era no hitter has ever hit a homer off a pitch as fast and as off the plate as Judge just did off varland.


he's good.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#469865) #
good time for a defensive disasterclass
dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#469866) #
How the hell can you expect to bullpen your way in Yankee stadium for 15 innings???? This is madness.
Glevin - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#469867) #
Just one of the worst defensive games I remember this season. Two errors, Vlad missing a grounded he should have had and now Santander just missing a routine fly out. Cost them a bunch of runs.
Katie - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#469868) #
To repeat myself, Straw over IKF (probably) solves at least two of these miscues, and several runs. Maybe a third.
Eephus - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#469869) #
Whichever team scores 10 first wins this game.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#469870) #
Probably the ballgame.

Santander might have injured his wrist or hand on the diving attempted catch.

The question for Schneider is whether to go with Gausman game 4 and Yesavage in game 5, or a bullpen game (and likely loss against Cam) in game 4, placing all bets on a Gausman/Trey game 5 in Toronto.

If you wanted to make the case for Gausman in game 4, you could focus on the fact that he didn’t throw a ton of pitches in game 1. Not sure what I would do in that situation.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#469871) #
Not exactly. If the Jays score 10 then they will go to Hoffman.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#469872) #
In summary, not a well-played game by the Blue Jays.
scottt - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#469873) #
The ump hasn't called the high strikes.
It's kinda important to take note and adjust.

Also, George isn't having a great series.
Eephus - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#469874) #
Needless to say, this stinks.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#469875) #
Gausman threw 75 pitches in game 1.

If you’re saving him for game 5, does Yesavage also pitch in game 5? What is the realistic plan to win this series if the Blue Jays lose game 3 tonight?
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#469876) #
Madison Shipman and Joe Siddall on the broadcast agreeing that pulling Bieber was the right call, pointing out that he didn’t look good and was leaving a lot of pitches middle-middle.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#469877) #
Yeah that doesn't convince me. You don't have a starter for game 4 so...

Also, Bieber is a mix and match pitcher m. He can get away with middle pitches even though it's not ideal. Hitters can't really sit on his pitches like they can Varland.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#469878) #
seems smart to let both gausman and yesavage start again.

so gausman on short rest (but only 75 pitches in the past 9 days), and Yesavage on regular rest.

and the only reliever who seems to be burnt at all tommorrow would be Varland.

Glevin - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 11:15 PM EDT (#469879) #
Bieber looked awful. If they had left him in, it would have been to maybe on or two more batters and then he'd be out for top of lineup. There was no way he was going to face them again. Ernie doing his part but rest of offense has checked out since relievers came in.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#469880) #
Pulling Bieber was probably the right move because Flu promptly escaped the jam. Everything comes back to the Barger error, which opened the door to the Yankees comeback. Sometimes you only get one shot.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#469881) #
Bieber did not look good. I had no issues with pulling him. The Jays were leading and needed the pen to lock things down. Unfortunately the defense let them down and Varland was giving up home runs (which I'm sure pleased at least one poster here).
SK in NJ - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#469882) #
The biggest issue is that Bieber not giving them length combined with the team blowing the lead means that Game 4 is going to be tough to win. They really needed him to pitch at least 5. I would have tried to see if Bieber could have gotten out of the 3rd, so you can nitpick on when exactly to pull him, but otherwise, I think it was smart to pull him before he blew the lead. He didn't look like he had much in the tank tonight.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#469883) #
The thing about Gausman is that he has already been dependant on extra rest in recent weeks. Reducing his rest to less-than-normal seems risky.

Having Gausman-Yesavage-Seranthony-Hoffman available in game 5 might be the most important thing right now. Because right now it feels like that’s where we’re headed.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#469884) #
ok, top of the order, let's break their fricken hearts.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#469885) #
ach take that one for the team Lukes!
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 11:36 PM EDT (#469886) #
Now the ump calls that pitch a strike?
uglyone - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#469887) #

Series Pitch Chart:

greenfrog - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#469888) #
Madison, explaining why she agreed that pulling Bieber was the right call, noted that of the 12 balls put in play against him, 8 of them came off the bat at 100+ MPH. He was getting hit hard.
electric carrot - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 11:54 PM EDT (#469889) #
Maybe Gausman/Laurer Game 4 Yesavich Game 5
Eephus - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 11:55 PM EDT (#469890) #
Team just looked shell shocked after the Barger error/Judge homer. All is not lost but they have to play way more competent defensively than what we saw tonight (with this level of brilliant insight it’s a wonder I don’t work as an MLB analyst somewhere). That was flat out weird and so irritating.

Jays have been really good at grinding starters to dust. Continuing to do so against Schlittler would help things a ton.
electric carrot - Tuesday, October 07 2025 @ 11:55 PM EDT (#469891) #
Yesavage
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 12:02 AM EDT (#469892) #
Even if it’s advantage Yankees tomorrow (playing at home with Schlittler starting), wins are not guaranteed in baseball. Play hard, execute well, deploy the bullpen arms well, and the Blue Jays could win tomorrow. Show up and compete and good things can happen. Worst case, you’re playing a game 5 with some really good arms available on the mound.
Glevin - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 12:07 AM EDT (#469893) #
If Jays had had even just one of Bieber not sucking/bullpen not sucking/defense not sucking/offense after third inning not sucking, they still might have won the game. Just an all-around terrible performance except for a few hitters.

For lineup tomorrow, it's funny because I would have gone IKF in this game because he hits RH velocity.
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 12:16 AM EDT (#469894) #
Probably 35-40% chance of a win tomorrow, give it your best shot and maybe you pull it out. If not, push all the chips to the middle of the table and play game 5 at the RC behind Gausman, Yesavage and the best leverage bullpen arms on the team.

Not ideal, but that is now the situation at hand.
Michael - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 04:45 AM EDT (#469895) #
I wonder if you start bullpen like an opener and then assess do you put one of Yesavage or Gausman in the 3rd inning or something if the Jays do well in the first few innings, but go full bullpen if the game isn't close.
Gerry - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 05:30 AM EDT (#469896) #
When Barger pinch hit for IKF so early it reminded me of the Bobby Cox days. Cox would do that too and that exposed hitters to wrong side matchups late in the game.
scottt - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 05:38 AM EDT (#469897) #
When Schlitter had his historical Red Sox erasing outing the ump was calling strikes several inches over the zone. Yesterday the ump's zone was the opposite, visibly lower than the actual zone.

This can matter a lot for some pitchers. Fluharty and Fisher struggled with high balls that should have been strikes.

A lot could hang on today's ump.
Katie - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 07:01 AM EDT (#469898) #
I'm not sure the what the difference is between the yellow and white boxes, but in either case, that chart illustrates how helpful it was for the Yankees to have Warren eat up all the garbage innings in Game 2 and how it may hurt us today that Schneider had to/decided to use Varland and Dominguez on Sunday.
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 07:14 AM EDT (#469899) #
Schneider has done a good job this year, but his Achilles Heel as a manager is getting overanxious and making too many moves to try to lock down a particular result.

The momentum has shifted and now it's up to the Blue Jays to get it back. It will be important for the hitters to stay within themselves as they try to do this. The temptation will be to press and that is not going to work.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 07:20 AM EDT (#469900) #
I'm not so sure about Gausman on short rest. I'm not sure about Yesavage facing the NYY second time in a week.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 08:10 AM EDT (#469901) #
Recap after sleeping on it and listening to the feeds:

John Schneider got too cute especially with his defense

Shane Bieber was plain bad

Stop pitching to Aaron Judge
Glevin - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#469902) #
What I think is very odd is knowing you're going to throw a bullpen game and still choosing Bruihl over Bassit/Scherzer. There is no ghost runner in the playoffs either so any extra inning game means you need someone to go for bulk innings. To me, the scenarios where you are using Bruihl are really limited but scenarios you need a long-man are not.
Gerry - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#469903) #
A lot of todays prospects rests on Eric Lauer. If he can handle the lefty Yankee hitters for 3-4 innings the Jays should be in decent shape. If he cant then it could be game five.
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#469904) #
Another question is whether the Blue Jays will be able to put some disruptive pressure on Schlittler early and score some runs, or will he be able to settle into a rhythm, get comfortable, and put up a bunch of zeros?
SK in NJ - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#469905) #
Put Davis Schneider at 2B and Straw in LF, and the Jays may have won last night. The obsession with IKF hurt them.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#469906) #
I heard a podcaster mention that Chris Bassitt can be in play. Is it possible he can be added to the roster some how? I thought it was a closed case that he is not eligible. Podcaster isn't run of the mill "Joe Blow."
Jonny German - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#469908) #
Bassitt could theoretically be activated to replace an injured pitcher. It’s not clear how legit the injury needs to be. Here’s what MLB says on the matter:

A club may request permission from the Commissioner's Office to replace a player who is injured during the course of a series, but that player is then ineligible for the rest of that round and the subsequent round, if there is one. A pitcher may be replaced only by another pitcher, and a position player only by another position player.
John Northey - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#469909) #
IMO the biggest killer is the obsession with using Santander when he clearly isn't hitting or fielding yet. His bat seems close but this isn't horseshoes or hand grenades. Having him start vs a LHP really was weird. Given how they've played Lukes was a far better choice and would've been able to make that play Santander screwed up.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#469910) #
Well, Santander did have that 2 run single that made it 6-1. With decent pitching and defense it might have been enough to win.
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#469911) #
If he had wanted to make a really bold move, the manager could have replaced Santander with Straw right after the two-run single. In other words, take the found money of the two-run hit and immediately pivot to a defensive upgrade to protect the 6-1 lead.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#469912) #
I like Santander using this round to try to round into form. It could pay big dividends if facing the Dodgers in the WS. There's some easy moves that could be done to mitigate his defense:

Move him to DH and let Springer play RF
Replace him with Straw or Lukes after a lead

I think it's important to try to get him to full form which looks to be happening soon. Especially with the likelihood of Bichette missing another round or two.
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#469913) #
IKF made some key errors right after he was acquired by the Blue Jays late this season. What is his defense like at the moment (that is, in October 2025, not at some earlier point in his career)? Something to consider. It’s not necessarily helpful to assume he’s a “Gold Glove” defender as the Sportsnet broadcasters sometimes do.
Michael - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#469914) #
Yeah, if Bruihl comes down with a sore arm so they can activate a starter, that could have been the call.
scottt - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#469915) #
IKF was replaced early and Barger made the next costly error. Ranging for pop up in a loud stadium can be dangerous as we saw in 2022.

I am not crazy about Varland starting today.
The high velo doesn't work against these guys if it's predictable.
uglyone - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#469916) #
man it sucks that fricken IKF could plausibly be the reason the season unravelled, given there's actually never been a good reason to even have him on the team.
uglyone - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#469917) #
Katie the yellow boxes just meant to indicate their current streak of games off. Maybe the colour was unnecessary tho.


uglyone - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#469918) #
Clearly they love Varland.

He's the only pitcher to throw in all 3 games so far, and now he's starting game 4 in his 4th game in 5 nights.

Four Seamer - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#469919) #
Wouldn’t it be wonderful if we all found the sort of unconditional love Varland and IKF have found in John Schneider.

Oh well, no point dwelling on the past - on to the next. Still have two chances to knock the Yankees out, one of them at home. Definitely the underdogs tonight but overall chances remain in their favour.
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#469920) #
Apart from yesterday’s game, Varland has been good lately, and he had that great opener performance (2 IP) late in the regular season.

What that all adds up to at this point, I’m not sure. Guessing he’ll be mixing in a number of breaking balls and maybe a changeup or two in tonight’s stint. Let’s hope he can throw strikes and not give up any long balls. When he isn’t on, he can be vulnerable on both FBs and hanging breaking balls.
Glevin - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#469921) #
man it sucks that fricken IKF could plausibly be the reason the season unravelled, given there's actually never been a good reason to even have him on the team."

They were up 6-1 when IKF left the game. Pretty hard to blame it unraveling on him. In fact, in retrospect, they'd have been better leaving him in because Barger's error was so much more consequential.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#469922) #
I feel like there is a significant delta between how good the FO thinks Varland is and how good he actually is. Much like with IKF. You would hope that they would not let bias creep into their decision making but that's clearly what has happened here. I don't know how you know days in advance that you are going with an opener in Game 4, very likely to be Varland based on what happened against Boston, but then proceeding to use him for the first 3 games anyway (one of which being a lopsided win for the Jays). Now he's starting the most important game of the season with his 4th appearance in 5 days, after giving up 2 home runs (and lost the team the game) less than 24 hours ago.

I don't have an issue with using Varland as an opener in general, but then don't use him in Game 2 when the Jays were leading by 123 runs. I don't see this ending well for the Jays tonight.
uglyone - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#469923) #
oh to be clear I also love Varland. I wasn't trying to insinuate that they were wrong for loving him - I think they're right to view him as their best reliever. And I'm not surprised at all that a guy like Hoffman has been nowhere to be seen in any of the big matchups so far.

though I think using Varland for a 4th time in 5 days tonight might be pushing it.
92-93 - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#469924) #
It's fairly obvious that Hoffman is being held back for high leverage situations late in the game, as they have been wont to do all season unless he needs work. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#469925) #
If Hoffman is throwing 97 with command of the fastball, as he was in his last outing, I think he'll be good when called upon.  

I wonder if a club has ever used two openers in a playoff game.  If they are going to start Varland, it won't be for more than an inning.  You might want to have another right-hander go another inning, and then bring on Lauer for 3-4 innings.  

I'm hoping to see an outfield of Schneider, Varsho and Lukes, and an infield of Barger, Gimenez, Clement and VGJ, against the right-hander today.   
uglyone - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#469926) #
and by "fairly obvious" you mean the fact that Hoffman has been used only once so far this series, in a low leverage situation, and not once in the many high leverage situations we've faced so far.

that kind of "fairly obvious".
uglyone - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#469927) #
don't think we'll see Davis Schneider in the starting lineup tonight unfortunately.

92-93 - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#469929) #
You must have missed the "late in the game" part, uglyone. That's what managers save their closers for. Such a situation did not arise in Game 2 or Game 3. 
uglyone - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#469930) #
well whatever rationale is being used, it kept Hoffman out of the biggest game of the year, which was within 3 runs either way from the 3rd to the 9th, even though Hoffman was the most rested pitcher on the team.

92-93 - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#469931) #
There was no chance Schneider was going to use his closer in the 5th inning last night. You can continue to believe it's because they've lost faith in Hoffman though if you'd like...it will be disproven in a few hours, for better or worse. 
uglyone - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#469933) #
yep it was much more important for him to close out that 9 run lead in game 1. that's when you need your ace closer.
92-93 - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#469935) #
While I didn't agree with that usage, that was clearly because he hadn't pitched in over a week. 
dalimon5 - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#469941) #
uglyone ... maybe take your own advice to me and "disagree with the content of his posts. but enough with the personal sludge."
uglyone - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#469943) #
wat
scottt - Wednesday, October 08 2025 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#469944) #
Varland was still reaching 3 digits so that part is fine but I don't know why he would have more success with Judge today than yesterday.
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