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The Jays had a day off yesterday due to rain and it did wonders for their bullpen. The price to be paid for that rest will come due in August but for this Astros series the bullpen is rested. The starters too get an extra day of rest. The Jays had a big comeback win on Saturday which should have given them a boost going into Sunday. Will it carry over into Monday?

SCHEDULE

Monday: Brown vs Cease

Tuesday: Lambert vs Bieber

Wednesday: Burrows vs Yesavage


This week sees the return of Shane Bieber. His results during his rehab were not great but can he deliver on Tuesday?

This series schedule has an unusual 4pm start on Tuesday due to World Cup conflicts. How much of an overlap is there between Jays fans and Panama or Croatia fans?

Astros at Jays: June 22-24; The Quest for 500 | 88 comments | Create New Account
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mendocino - Monday, June 22 2026 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#479353) #
should have posted here

Blue Jays selected the contract of SS Luis Urías from Buffalo
optioned LF Yohendrick Piñango to Buffalo
mendocino - Monday, June 22 2026 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#479354) #
Mitch Bannon@MitchBannon

The hope, if all goes well, is Addison Barger gets into rehab games Thursday. Will need about a week before he joins the #BlueJays


Keegan Matheson@KeeganMatheson

Yimi García had some soreness after his last rehab outing, so he’s meeting with the #BlueJays’ doctors now.

Long, slow rehab process is on pause for now.
scottt - Monday, June 22 2026 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#479355) #
Brown had just started one game since coming back from a strained shoulder.
He threw 92 pitches.
This is where the Jays need to go back to grinding ABs.

The Astros don't have a lefty starter, so there might not be much to do for Urias.
TamRa - Monday, June 22 2026 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#479356) #
I think I've said before but I think the rational thing for fans to do is just assume you're not getting anything helpful out of Garcia this year. Anything at all seems like it would be gravy.
Nigel - Monday, June 22 2026 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#479357) #
Phew - that was close to getting out of hand. Thankfully the pen is rested - that was a lot of pitches for the first inning.
Nigel - Monday, June 22 2026 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#479358) #
A really great inning of ABs by the Jays, notwithstanding the lack of runs.
92-93 - Monday, June 22 2026 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#479359) #
Very nice 4-6-3 DP there.

Eric Smith is so painful to listen to on the radio, it's embarrassing for a communications company. I thought it was because he was calling away games from the studio, but he's no better at the Dome. It would be nice if they let Jamie Campbell call the games, or really just anybody else. Find some Canadian college baseball broadcaster and give the kid a chance.
dalimon5 - Monday, June 22 2026 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#479360) #
You know he's just filling in temporarily, right? Like a supply teacher...
dalimon5 - Monday, June 22 2026 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#479362) #
That's weird, I now see your full message rather than one line. Please disregard my response. Changing my crappy iPhone
Nigel - Monday, June 22 2026 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#479363) #
Really solid win even without any hitting with RISP. They made Brown throw over 80 pitches in the first three innings. In one of his recent starts against the Jays, Brown almost threw a Maddux so they really worked at it tonight. Just a very solid effort.
BlueJayWay - Monday, June 22 2026 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#479365) #
Eric Smith is so painful to listen to on the radio

He's always been like that. I hate when he fills in because it's impossible to tell what's going on when you can't see.
He'll start calling a play but often doesn't tell you what actually ended up happening. You have to try to piece it together from crowd reactions or clues he drops in the next at bat or two. It's like a mystery novel.
June Northey - Monday, June 22 2026 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#479366) #
These Jays are fun to watch again - feel like they have a shot most games and rarely do blowouts thus every pitch matters. If only they'd learn how/when to use the ABS challenges (never in the first 4 innings unless a really, really, really bad call).
scottt - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 04:34 AM EDT (#479367) #
I thought that having Ernie lead the league in All-star voting and batting 8th was hilarious.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#479369) #
Eric Lauer threw 6 innings of no-hit ball yesterday. He has a 2.54era and 5.22fip in 28.1 innings for the World Champs and they've won all 5 of his "starts" (he was bulky yesterday). I still don't really understand what happened between him and the Jays.

How does Springer have an OPS+ of 92 and a positive WAR without playing any defense?
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#479370) #
Personally, I think that Yogi's aphorism that pitching is 45% mental is accurate.  I think Lauer was severely irritated with the organization, rightly or wrongly, and it affected his performance with them in 2026. The organization had him pretty down low on the chart during the 2025 post-season and we've talked before about the arbitration issue.  It is possible to win the battle and lose the war.  

Moving forward, I'm very happy with a front 4 of Cease, Gausman, Yesavage and Bieber, and a back-end of the bullpen that features Varland, Rogers and Hoffman.  The club will need to play .723 ball the rest of the way for them to reach the 100 wins that I projected for them at the start of the season.  That seems unlikely, but I do know that if they stay reasonably healthy the rest of the way, they have a very good chance of making the playoffs and an honest shot at winning the division and a first-round bye.  No club is going to relish the prospect of facing them in the playoffs because of the increased importance of one's top 6 or 7 pitchers.  
Cracka - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#479371) #
I still don't really understand what happened between him and the Jays.

Arbitration. On Feb. 3rd, he sat in a meeting and watched the FO devalue his 2025 season because ~30% of his innings were as a long reliever, a role that pays much less than a starter. It cost him $1.35 million, he resented it, and the relationship between club and player was permanently harmed. He's only the 2nd Jay to lose an arbitration case in the last 30 years (Ryan Tepera).
electric carrot - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#479372) #
Like Mike I feel optimistic about the front four moving forward -- but don't feel especially optimistic about Bieber this afternoon. Can't help being concerned that he is being rushed to the majors.
June Northey - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#479373) #
With Lauer take note of that 5.22 FIP - far more indicative of future success/failure than his ERA of 2.54 based on past history of FIP vs ERA. Last year his 3.18 ERA was matched with a 3.85 FIP (his best in the majors/overseas). 4.04 was his next best - still OK but not anything to write home about - he had that in 2021 and had a 3.19 ERA. His fastball with the Dodgers went up to 91.3 vs 90.5 here (lowest in his career). Is he a good pitcher? Yes, he can be - a decent swing man/back of pen guy. But right now he'd have no slot on the Jays, well, maybe the rotation spot Corbin is using. That's it. In the pen there isn't anyone I'd cut for him - maybe Lazaro Estrada but that's it. Sadly that ERA will get some fans going bananas but by seasons end it'll have grown and he might not even be on the Dodgers post season roster (depends who is healthy).

Springer is weird on FG - 0.2 fWAR despite negative scores for offense, defense, and baserunning. There is nothing there that suggests he should have a positive WAR. Weird.
Glevin - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#479374) #
Lauer had the worst stuff+ of any starter in baseball I believe so I don't think it was only mental. He's had great results in L.A. but also its been extremely fluky. He has a 2.55 ERA and a 5.22 FIP. He isn't striking out anyone and is walking plenty and has a .165 BABIP (.283 career) and 95% LOB (75% career). Those numbers will normalize and his ERA will go way up. He isn't a good pitcher.
scottt - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#479375) #
WAR is over replacement which is worse than average.
June Northey - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#479376) #
Sounds similar to what we saw here with Bowden Francis in the 2nd half of 2024. August/September he had a 1.52 ERA and gave up just 25 hits in 59 1/3 IP (131 BABIP) - a rate that is impossible to sustain. But we all figured even with some regression he'd be good in '25. He wasn't. 72 ERA+ in 64 IP on a 286 BABIP (still good for BABIP but not otherworldly and he needed otherworldly to be successful).

It happens. Guys have everything go right for them at times, others have everything go wrong (Stieb with 2 outs in the 9th of a no-no is a good example of that).
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#479377) #
We'll see.  Lauer has a 4.19 ERA for his major league career which predominantly has been in a starting role.  That's good for a 99 ERA+ which is very good performance for a 5th starter.  His FIP for his career is 4.61.  Over time, ERA is more predictive than FIP, and it appears that Lauer is one of those pitchers whose career FIP understates his value.  In his case, opposition baserunners over his 766 innings are 29-14 stealing bases.  He's essentially entirely negated the running game (for perspective, Blue Jay pitchers this year have thrown 690 innings so far and opposition baserunners are 76-24).  

One more piece.  The average starting pitcher has an ERA+ of about 95, because starting is more difficult than relieving.  I'd much rather have my 5th man in the rotation be Miles for an inning or two and then Lauer, rather than starting with Corbin or Scherzer.  
dalimon5 - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#479378) #
Bieber is probably being a bit rushed and he was probably also rushed last year, but he's probably motivated to rush things along as much as the Jays are since it's a contract year for him.

He's a "control" pitcher and can give you 5-6 innings of 3 run ball out of the gate. The Cy Young version of Bieber also has "Command" and can put all pitches on the corners rather than just in the zone. That Bieber racks up strikeouts. Both versions give up home runs.

If he can work up to "great Bieber" after a month or two it would be really big. If he can't and he's just a high end control pitcher who eats 6+ innings with sub 4 ERA ball well that's great too.
scottt - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#479379) #
Bieber is a lot like SWR. Low velo. Breaking stuff.
If he cannot go deep, Miles is probably a better follow up.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#479380) #
That makes sense, scottt. Thanks. It's hard to imagine that replacement level isn't equal to (or better than) .228/.318/.391, but I guess that's just a reflection of how good pitching has become with modern pitching staffs.

Springer is hitting .265/.359/.478 since his low point on May 16th with 6 doubles, 6 homers, and a 15:24 BB:K in 133PA.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#479381) #
So I thought I'd check out Lauer's batted-ball performance in 2026 vs. 2025.  The average exit velocity is down in 2026.  For ground balls, he's doing better in 2026 than in 2025: .201/.201/.217 vs. .247/.247/.282.  For fly balls, he's doing worse: .198/.194/.667 vs. .186/.185/.597.  For line drives, he's doing worse; .585/.585/.824 vs. .551/.551/.744.  Has he been lucky to arrive at a 4.87 ERA so far?  Maybe, he's given up a lot of balls in the air and the fly balls that have not left the yard (and there have been many of those) have been mostly caughtt.  The higher the HR/FB, the lower the BABIP on flyballs will be.  

The key metric for me is his W/K rate.  It was 16/26 for Toronto this year (and he won't be successful with that rate) and 8/16 in Los Angeles so far (which isn't as good as Toronto 2025 but getting into the better place for him).  

Lauer is not a stuff pitcher.  Neither was Tommy John.  But he'll strike out some, not walk too many, hold on runners and be quite effective with runners on first because of the DP risk.  
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#479382) #
In 1985 when the Blue Jays won their first pennant, the average hitter in the AL went .257/.323/.391.  But that was over 40 years ago, and since then, we went through the PED era which skewed our idea of what a typical hitter could put up. By 2014, the average hitter in the AL went .253/.316/.390 or not quite as good as Springer's 2026 season so far.  

It might be the quality of the pitching- velocities are undoubtedly higher, particularly for relievers.  But it also could be the passing of the PED era, or a combination of these things.
pooks137 - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#479383) #
Arbitration

Lauer's arbitration case was also unique since his service time wasn't continuous with his brief time in the KBO & the minors after flaming out as a starter in Milwaukee after 4+ years of service time.

There was some uncertainty how the arbitrators would handle the interruption - whether his final year of arbitration would reflect the higher salary grid of a walk-year 5-year SP. Or if it would be more reflective of a reclamation project SP who made a low 1.5 mil base salary on a minor league deal who would go on to have a spectacular 3/4 of a swingman season to finish the year.

I always think the hard feelings narratives after contentious arb hearings - Marcus Stroman, Vlad, now Lauer - are always overstated after the fact.

It seems to me that Lauer was simply a prickly personality who managed to wear out his welcome at least with the FO & coaching staff in under a year after a career rebirth, a locker room with apparently great chemistry & an unexpected Cinderella run to the WS.

Nigel - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#479384) #
In addition to the improved hitting approach over the last little while (even if that hasn't always translated into runs due to poor hitting with RISP), the other subtle thing going on is an improvement in team defence. After leading the league last year in defensive runs saved, the team was in the bottom third of the league for the first two months of the year. They have moved up to essentially league average with a significantly better last month. There are many drivers but I would say Lukes return from injury, Clement pulling out of his early season defensive funk and Okamoto slowly improving at 3B are some of the drivers for this. They need good team defense for this whole reliance on run prevention schtick to work.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#479385) #
Low velocity is 90 MPH or lower. Shane Bieber and SWR average 92 - 94 MPH which is basically right around average for a starting pitcher.
Gerry - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#479386) #
Bieber activated, Estrada sent down, Juenger DFA'd.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#479387) #
Interesting lineup today. Lambert has remarkably even splits over his career (though he's been much better vs. LHB this year), so the Jays are rolling with Urias and Straw against the righty while still starting Sanchez and Gimenez. It's probably more just a function of getting some rest for Clement and Lukes. Presumably Valenzuela will still bat from the left side, but we shall see.

The bullpen is in good shape again today; everyone should be available. The hook will likely be quick on Bieber, because SWR, Miles, Nance, and Fluharty are all in the "Need Work" category.
scottt - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#479389) #
92.7mph. 23 percentile for SWR. Average is around 94.
Maybe lower for a starter but maybe not for a right handed pitcher.
Katie - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#479390) #
Pools, I don't really agree with your comment, but I also don't agree with your classification, either.

You called Vlad's arbitration hearing contentious, but I think that was more people speculating about how it could potentially damage the relationship. Vlad said after the hearing that he had no hard feelings and it was part of the business of baseball.

Maybe that was influenced by the fact he won his case, but that's very different than Lauer coming out of his hearing and complaining that how the Jays used him cost him his case.

One of those cases seems a lot more contentious than the other to me. And, that is probably due as much to the personalities involved as anything, but if one player leaves the hearing and starts criticizing the team, I find it hard to say that people are overstating it after-the-fact.

As Mike said, Lauer was dumped way down the pecking order in the playoffs, tightly or wrongly, after being praised as the Team's MVP, or one of them, by many people in September. I think he felt that his ability to contribute was ignored then and that frustration, combined with the arbitration loss, created this spiral the relationship was never going to recover from.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#479391) #
Does it matter at all how things went down for Lauer? If he mistreated before the season started...if he was treated fairly before the season started...bottom line is that he displayed defiance openly to his manager and the management. It shouldn't matter what happened before hand off the field. Here is what you shouldn't do under any circumstance if you're a professional athlete who wants to be respected by teammates and lead by example, which unsurprisingly, the majority of all baseball players do:

Do not do anything on the mound to show defiance when your manager is pulling you from the mound.

Do not question the in game strategy of your coaching staff to the media and imply you should be starting over other players on the team.

Do not make a start with neck massage sticking pads on your neck without consulting the team doctors or coaching staff.

It was clear at least to me that for Eric Lauer it was Eric Lauer's World and everybody else was living in it.

Even Jose Berrios with his insanely superior pedigree and history as a starting pitcher compared to Eric Lauer, walked back his steps after simply not showing up for the full World Series run. Like the expression says, check your ego at the door.

How high is this guy's FIP again???
dalimon5 - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#479392) #
On a team where Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, Davis Schneider and Nathan Lukes all had to fight for roster spots through the season or post season I don't think there was much understanding or sympathy for Mr Lauer from fans or teammates.

I could be wrong. The Blue Jays could be wishing that they had Lauer starting today. His teammates might be missing him. I guess some people will find sympathy for a guy who got a 100% salary increase from 2025 to 2026 even though it isn't the almost tripling of his salary that he wanted in arbitration after a successful season where the Blue Jays stepped up and signed him.
lexomatic - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#479393) #
June WAR calxulation includes playing time
dalimon5 - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#479394) #
Caleb Joseph isn't as bad as I thought he would be as a colour commentator. I like how he calls out the players.
Nigel - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#479395) #
Apparently they used up all of their hits with RISP last season:(
scottt - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#479396) #
Astros hit 3 solo homers, so no better.
Nigel - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#479397) #
They've had another great day at the plate today. 14 baserunners in 6 innings. Some really grinding ABs.
scottt - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#479398) #
Springer only needed a flyball to walk it off and took a half swing. Sigh. Another chance at .500 tomorrow.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#479399) #
The last two times they could have got over .500 they took a multi-run lead to the 9th, Varland wasn't available, and they lost.
Waveburner - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#479400) #
Was thinking the same thing, BlueJayWay. The Hoffman nightmare was on May 30, and it took them 23 days to recover back to .500 again. Here's hoping it doesn't take that long this time.
Michael - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#479401) #
I think Lauer's arbitration is harder than many due to the fact that the Jays control his role, and the context, and that drastically effects value. Someone like Vlad has a small amount of that in terms of 3B vs 1B vs DH, but for a pitcher the difference between starting pitcher, closer, and long reliever is huge in terms of $ value and Lauer's results in 2025 were good enough to easily be a SP but due to the context of the Jays bumping him to the bullpen (where his results were also excellent) his arbitration value was lower. That said, as others have noted his underlying numbers were not anywhere near as good as his results and his track record was spotty, so no guarantees he'd perform as well again.

But it did seem things soured faster than would be desirable given you can never have too much pitching. And it is always a little suspicious if your cast offs are being picked up by the richest/most stacked team in baseball.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#479402) #
Meh, I give it 6 months before he follows Espinal via DFA. He's never going to crack a full time starters role if he keeps playing on teams with 5 better pitchers than him. When LA is healthy there is no room for him. He's eating innings for them for June, July and August before they start to get their real rotation optimized for the playoffs. Same thing he did last year for the Jays.
June Northey - Tuesday, June 23 2026 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#479405) #
Given the Jays are looking for starting pitching I wonder if the Giants, given the disaster their year is, might trade Logan Webb (not one of the 4 anti-LGBT guys) - he is signed for 2 more years at just $23/$24 mil those 2 years ($23 mil this year). A 4+ fWAR guy for 5 straight years and just shy of that pace this year. His 0.54 HR/9 would be a nice change of pace around here. But at 29 with 2 1/2 years of control at a good price I figure he'll be very hard to get. I could see SF demanding the Jays eat Devers contract but that would be a bridge too far I'd think.
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, June 24 2026 @ 01:10 AM EDT (#479406) #
When thinking about contentious arbitrations, I don't really think of Vlad - i think of Bo who made it known he was unhappy with the process and the feeling was that he was leaving on the first train out of town as soon as he was an FA - and thus it came to pass.

Too bad about George not getting a sac fly to end it.. OTOH, Varsho, Okamoto and Urias had some great swings.
scottt - Wednesday, June 24 2026 @ 05:05 AM EDT (#479407) #
Lauer signed a minor league deal with the Jays that paid him 2.2M in MLB. 4.4M is basically a 100% raise.

What clouds the figure is the 5M he made in 2023.

He will be a free agent so his role doesn't impact his future pay. The Jays kept him in the pen because he pitched poorly.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, June 24 2026 @ 07:58 AM EDT (#479408) #
Buxton and Webb were both confirmed unavailable for trade by their GMs this week.
pooks137 - Wednesday, June 24 2026 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#479409) #
When thinking about contentious arbitrations, I don't really think of Vlad - i think of Bo

I may have been confusing Vlad & Bo.

As fans, we have very incomplete information about what happens in the locker room, relationships between players & players, players & coaches, players & executives. Player happiness outside of the occasional quote that slips out in the media, etc.

In the absence of in-depth info on morale & motivations, I think we tend to overemphasize the weight of the few concrete or circumstantial data points that we are privy to. Such as players would actually had their contracts decided by an arb hearing. Or the resulting quotes afterwards that the player was taken aback by the business side of contract negotiations about value.

Bo's walk year last year was a tangential example. Everyone knew that Bichette was headed to free agency all season, particularly after Vlad's megadeal was signed in May.

But the vibes about Bo leaving town were more about what wasn't said vs what actually was. Bo was treated all year by the media as a dead man walking, with one foot already out the door. But he was also treated by the media with kid gloves, with his departure treated as a given, but still treated with deference as to why instead of being harassed & hounded daily as to updates & motivations.

dalimon5 - Wednesday, June 24 2026 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#479410) #
Kevin Barker mentioned a few weeks ago that Bo Bichette and John Schneider didn't talk for months after Bo was moved down in the line up. It was in relation to the topic of John Schneider being soft on his players wherein Kevin (former roommate and still friends with the manager) said that John yells and makes the players uncomfortable sometimes...he just does it only in private.

Other interesting I heard in case nobody else here did, on another podcast of former college players with ties to current team members... they said they couldn't disclose but George Springer was dealing with some issues in the first two months of the season, off the field issues which sounded like personal stuff. Might help explain his performance.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, June 24 2026 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#479411) #
I'm feeling a lot less optimistic after seeing Bieber pitch yesterday. I did in fact look like a low velo guy after all.
scottt - Wednesday, June 24 2026 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#479412) #
93mph is actually good for Bieber.
The command was good but the breaking stuff was hanging.
That can be fixed.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, June 24 2026 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#479413) #
I don't know Scott...I saw a lot of 91's and after 3IP he looked gassed. His change up was nasty but slider wasn't great. Most surprising to me is that he wasn't going after guys, especially 2nd time through it looked like he was pitching around the better hitters.

Last year when Bieber started against the Marlins he dominated by attacking the hitters and his stuff just looked unhittable and it reminded of me of Halladay in a way. Yesterday looked a far way off from that. I ask myself what the 6 months off was for if there was no structural damage. I had hopes Bieber would fit somewhere between Gausman and Cease and resign here to be a solid #2 option ahead of Yesavage as a 3. After yesterday it makes me think this FO will try to trade for Skubal or Alcantara which will be an overpay and not address the missing bat or extra elite arm the bullpen can benefit from.
Gerry - Wednesday, June 24 2026 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#479414) #
Catching up on a couple of points....

I think Caleb Joseph is great. He is passionate about the game and the team and he will always tell you whats on his mind.

Bo was a closed book. Every interview with him saw him answer in short sentences that were usually cliches. I said last year that it was a waste of time interviewing him, he reveals nothing about his motivations or thoughts. I don't think that has changed in New York.
92-93 - Wednesday, June 24 2026 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#479415) #
It was a beautiful day at the ballpark yesterday and a thoroughly entertaining game. It's a pleasure being able to walk over after work to catch a few innings.

Sanchez cost the team yesterday by dogging it down the line. When you provide as little value as he does, you best be running on contact.

Schneider got a bad jump and slipped in the 9th inning on a catchable ball. He's not exactly what you think of as a defensive replacement, but so it goes with their roster.
pooks137 - Wednesday, June 24 2026 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#479416) #
During the broadcast yesterday, I believe it was Caleb who commented that Bieber USED TO BE a guy with elite stuff and more notably, elite command. But intimated that Shane wasn't that guy anymore (and that the Jays weren't asking him to be). But that's okay because the expectations for Bieber are more to be a 3-4 innings-eater, reliable 4.50 ERA guy instead.

It's well understood that velo & stuff can be permanently diminished through age, wear-&-tear & injury. But I found it notable that it was conceded by Joseph that Bieber had permanently lost the "elite command" that Shane once possessed as Cleveland's ace.

Obviously this was simply a single return start after a long injury layoff for Bieber. But Caleb seemed to be acknowledging that command is a skill that similarly diminishes alongside velo & stuff for ageing starters. And that Bieber had chronically lost some of the elite command that had made him a #1.

It also makes me think of Max Scherzer's plight. There's no doubt that Max has lost velo & stuff (though he does seem to retain more velo than Bieber at even a decade older).

But for Scherzer, it really does seem to be the concurrent loss of command with ageing that ultimately betrays him. Obviously the reduced velo & stuff leads to less margin for error & a tightrope to walk as a 42 y/o starter.

But it's really the cookies that Max is leaving in the middle of the plate & the league-high HR rate that is the reason why Max looks so cooked. If he maintained elite command even with much diminished stuff, he could likely hang around to his heart's content as a Carlos Carrasco-type crafty righty until his velo & stuff bottomed out even further until uncompetitive.

I wonder what the state of the SABR science is for ageing curves & pitch command.

dalimon5 - Wednesday, June 24 2026 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#479417) #
pooks I'm surprised and was not expecting this from Bieber at age 31 with limited innings pitched at ages 29 and 30. For a pitcher that isn't throwing close to triple digits I would expect the fall off to happen closer to mid 30s. Bieber is more like Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Kluber, etc. Shouldn't be falling off this soon. He didn't come into succesfull seasons and then fade out...he's been reliably a top notch starter for a long time and then got injured and now (based on 1 starts and a soft half season last year) looks like he might be over-baked.
scottt - Wednesday, June 24 2026 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#479418) #
Balls hit at you are the hardest to judge in the outfield.
Schneider is not bad in left, but Straw is great there.
Katie - Wednesday, June 24 2026 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#479419) #
I agree in Joseph. He's a little less polished than some ex-ballplayers are, but I really enjoy his segments. He gets into the catcher's perspective more than some former players do.
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, June 24 2026 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#479420) #
I like Caleb - he's like a younger version of Buck (in a good way).


I like Sanchez's enthusiasm, but yeah, he has to be a bit more "professional" to keep his job, IMHO.
June Northey - Wednesday, June 24 2026 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#479426) #
Biebers main issue is that he has had some injuries - those can screw with every aspect of a pitchers craft - power, control, spin you name it.

Zero question the Jays will be chasing whatever top starters are on the market. Safe to say they are doing negotiations now for the best starters out there.
Gerry - Wednesday, June 24 2026 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#479427) #
That's a couple of bad plays in the eighth inning. The Hoofman error looks like someone missed a sign. I wonder if Okamoto's lack of English played a role.
Glevin - Wednesday, June 24 2026 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#479428) #
In the end, it's the offense being useless again that killed them. Burrows one of the worst starters in the game and Jays got 4 hits all game. Vladdy does look like he's hitting now line drives but Jays need results and offense just looks pathetic.
scottt - Wednesday, June 24 2026 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#479429) #
Still a game lost on lack of offense.
With Valenzuela on the bench, it wasn't a great idea to sit Sanchez. Varsho and Lukes got 3 hits, the right bats got one.
TamRa - Wednesday, June 24 2026 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#479430) #
They need to pick a spot here and give Fluharty an IL stint to rest his "arm fatigue" before the break and let Macko step in. You can really tell (from the results) that he needs to recover a bit. But it would sure be easier if it were 10 days instead of 15. Start it on July 2 and get him back after the break.

As for Hoffman, I've never seen someone unintentionally (I'm sure) appear to be TRYING to make fans hate him. It ended up not being the crucial run but damn, man.
TamRa - Wednesday, June 24 2026 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#479431) #
and yes, not pounding Burrows is the real failure tonight.
Eephus - Wednesday, June 24 2026 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#479432) #
This has to be the most purely annoying season in quite some time, all the more amplified by how middling-to-terrible most of the rest of the American League has been. It’s right there for them! Just a couple weeks of kick-ass baseball probably gets it done. And yet…..
TamRa - Thursday, June 25 2026 @ 12:28 AM EDT (#479433) #
I posted this three days ago:

So now they're 20-15 (a pace for 93 wins over 162) from May 13, so I figured I'd see how the offense (where most of the problem earlier had been) has done over those 35 games.
(some samples could start earlier or later but this is specific to the winning)
Springer - .233/.331/.433/.764*
Lukes - .341/.393/.463/.857**
Vlad - .252/.344/.351/.695
Varsho - .267/.349/.480/.829
Okamoto -.212/.291/.415/.706***
Valenzuela - .289/.368/.474/.842
Sanchez - .333/.360/.519/.879
Clement - .288/.308/.480/.788
Gimenez - .214/.281/.320/.601
Kirk - .250/.318/.300/.618(6 games)
Schneider - .206/.250/.441/.691 (7 before, 7 after)
Pinango - .253 .304 .432 .736
Straw - .173/.246/.212/.457
*Springer came alive on 5/18. Since then he's hitting .257/.349/.477/.826
**Lukes came back on 5/25, 23 games and 90 PA since
***Kaz was in the midst of a slump. Since 5/27 he's hit .263/.345/.553/.897
Plug in the more recent sample for Springer and Kaz, and accept that Gimenez just can't be expected to hit, and the one sub-par sample here is Vlad. He's hit well over the last 4 games but that's a nonsensical sample. I mean, that's a fine offensive group overall. If Schneider is genuinely fixed, so much the better.



I'm not going to update all that for the Houston series but I don't think the values will change enough to make this different.





Consider, over the last 38 games (roughly corresponding to the sample I used above) when almost everyone in the lineup was hitting better than they were before (except Vlad) they've scored on average 3.97 runs a game.

In the 42 games before they seemingly turned around...they averaged 4.21 runs per game.

That's insane.
June Northey - Thursday, June 25 2026 @ 01:12 AM EDT (#479434) #
Agreed it is nuts - In that May 13-now stretch the staff ERA is 4.06 (#12 overall), starters 4.72 (ranked #20), pen 3.43 (ranked #6). Before that 4.13 (#17), starters 4.07 (#15), pen 4.20 (#18).

So really, the staff has been better but not by a ton. And not the rotation (all those bullpen games). The pen though has been and it has felt that way for the most part. Probably even better if you remove the sub 10 IP guys (7 have 10+ IP, worst ERA is 4.60 for Fisher, then 4.41 for Hoffman, the rest are 1.21 to 2.70) The sub 10's have 46 2/3 IP 31 ER allowed = 5.98 ERA as a group (14 pitchers, Heineman & Straw had a 0 ERA over their 1 2/3 IP so that wasn't their fault, remove them and that ERA goes to 6.20).
June Northey - Thursday, June 25 2026 @ 01:16 AM EDT (#479435) #
FYI: starters May 13-yesterday. ERA's: Corbin 5.64, Yesavage 4.75 ERA, Gausman 4.30, Cease 2.97. Then comes the guys who are sub 5 IP as starters: Fisher-Bieber-Scherzer-Miles-Fluharty-Macko = 19 IP 15 ER = ERA 7.11 - nice if you want a slushie, not nice if you want to win. Zero question finding another top starter is #1.
dalimon5 - Thursday, June 25 2026 @ 07:25 AM EDT (#479436) #
Regular posters have been dropping off this season as well, anyone see Ugly anywhere?
scottt - Thursday, June 25 2026 @ 07:32 AM EDT (#479437) #
Guerrero is a mess.
Springer is not seeing the ball, swinging at balls, taking strikes and challenging obvious ones.
Davis is not covering the outside corner. He needs to move in and dare them to throw inside.
Kirk is just starting to get going.
pooks137 - Thursday, June 25 2026 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#479438) #
Very observant dalimon5. uglyone last posted on Sunday in the Cubs thread.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 25 2026 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#479440) #
You Be The Manager/GM, Kickstarting the offence version.  What changes could be made to kickstart the offence?

It might be time for some new blood.  Here's what I would do.  Bring up Sean Keys and send down Davis Schneider.  Change George Springer's role to OF/DH. Semi-Platoon Sanchez and Springer in RF (Springer gets some PAs against RHP and plays in the field every other game) and platoon Lukes and Straw in LF.  Straw gets occasional work for Varsho in CF, maybe once in 2 weeks.  Keys gets  4-5 games of every 7  to start, 3-4 at DH and 1 substituting for Guerrero Jr or Okamoto who get a day off every 2 weeks.  Springer plays some DH and sits about 1 a week, Urias DHs when a left-hander starts and Springer is in RF.  Others.


vw_fan17 - Thursday, June 25 2026 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#479442) #
Pick the batting order out of a hat. If you do well with a given order, stick with it until it stops doing well.May be a way to move George and Vlad lower in the order without bruising egos.cm
Glevin - Thursday, June 25 2026 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#479443) #
"As for Hoffman, I've never seen someone unintentionally (I'm sure) appear to be TRYING to make fans hate him. It ended up not being the crucial run but damn, man."

It was Okamoto's mistake. He was supposed to be looking at Hoffman instead of the plate. I find the booing and general hatred of Hoffman a little baffling. I have seen a number of people with the "he cost us the World Series" as if there aren't like 10 other players and coaches who are just as or even more responsible. RE24 is roughly like WAR for a game (without positional adjustments). In Game 7, Jays had 6 players at -0.5 or more. Hoffman was 7th worst. (Worst were Varsho at -2 and Lukes at -1.4.) And that was Hoffman's only run in the World Series.

He was terrible as a closer early in the year and was rightly replaced but he hasn't given up an earned run in 15 his last 17 appearances and has a 2.88 FIP on the year. He's #39 in all relievers in baseball in WAR. He's OK. He's paid too much for a 7th inning guy but not insanely. He hasn't ducked responsibility or said anything bad about the team or city. I don't get it.
Nigel - Thursday, June 25 2026 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#479444) #
Its tough to know exactly what to do with this team offensively. Bringing up Keys and sending down Schneider (now that Urias is on the team) seems the most obvious. The second thing I would do is acknowledge that Kirk may struggle with the bat for a while (having broken my thumb in a not dissimilar way to Kirk I think that the likelihood of him having full strength in that hand this soon after the injury is remote) so get Valenzuela in the lineup a bit more often against LH pitchers. Gimenez shouldn't hit against a LH starter. I agree on getting Springer into the OF occasionally makes sense in order to get Keys some ABs (Springer can't be much worse than Sanchez). Finally, move Springer out of the leadoff spot.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 25 2026 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#479445) #
I agree about Hoffman.  The closer role is subject to some heavy build-up (the music, the "save" statistic) and when a player fails at it, the criticism can be unrelenting.  It's very hard for the player as a human being.  Kudos to Hoffman for accepting and thriving in his new role.
Petey Baseball - Thursday, June 25 2026 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#479446) #
Eric Hinske was a 4.0 WAR player in his rookie year, injured his hand/wrist and never even cracked 1.5 in WAR in the remaining 10 years of his career. Hard to see that the two weren't related. Hopefully Kirk's offense does not drop off as much.
Nigel - Thursday, June 25 2026 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#479447) #
Not all thumb/wrist injuries are the same so who knows. What I will say is that for me, full functional mobility with no pain returned significantly ahead of a return to normal strength.
TamRa - Thursday, June 25 2026 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#479450) #
"It was Okamoto's mistake."

Yeah, I saw John's explanation after I posted that. Not his choice. But it surely sucks for him because more casual fans will blame him still.
TamRa - Thursday, June 25 2026 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#479451) #
really puzzled why they haven't already started getting Keys some reps in left field.
Nigel - Thursday, June 25 2026 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#479452) #
I don't think its that puzzling. I don't think he's athletic enough to play the OF. I think he's a 1B/DH positionally.
92-93 - Thursday, June 25 2026 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#479453) #
I'm surprised Clement is starting at SS tonight. He did not look healthy yesterday.

hypobole - Thursday, June 25 2026 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#479454) #
"Not only are Blue Jays decision makers watching Keys’ progress with interest, but they’re also looking to build up his defensive versatility. Behind the scenes, there’s talk of trying Keys in left or right field as a way to create more pathways to big-league playing time for a bat that may already be MLB-ready."

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/as-prospect-sean-keys-breaks-out-blue-jays-look-to-build-versatility/
Astros at Jays: June 22-24; The Quest for 500 | 88 comments | Create New Account
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