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I did a similar piece recently on the White Sox - Mariners trade, and will be doing the same for some of the more high-impact deadline deals we've seen. First stop, Tampa Bay.


To the Devil Rays - Scott Kazmir and Joselo Diaz
To the Mets - Victor Zambrano and Batolome Fortunato


The Devil Rays will get six (plus) years of Scott Kazmir and six-plus of Diaz before they hit free agency. The Mets will get six-plus of Fortunato (though Fortunato is, I'm told, actually thirty or so instead of his baseball age of 24. I've no idea whether this is credible) and three years of Victor Zambrano at arbitration.

PECOTA Projections

Mets - Victor Zambrano

2004 1.0 * 35% = 0.4 wins
2005 0.7 wins
2006 0.7 wins
2007 0.8 wins

Total 2.6 wins

Why so low? Easy. Zambrano's not really a very good starter, and his likelihood to collapse is very high because of his horrible control problems. Last year he completed the wildness Triple Crown, leading the league in walks, wild pitches, and hit batsmen. This has not changed; in fact, he's more wild than ever, with many more HBP and walks this year than last.

Mets - Bartolome Fortunato

Total 0.1 WARP over six years. BPro labels Fortunato, like a lot of minor league relievers, as very unlikely to ever do anything.

Mets Total - 2.7 wins

Devil Rays - Joselo Diaz

Nothing to report. Diaz's WARP projections are underwater (he's projected at a total of -0.8 WARP) mostly because he had very little pitching experiencecoming into this year.

Devil Rays - Scott Kazmir

2005 - 0.7 wins
2006 - 0.9 wins
2007 - 2.1 wins
2008 - 2.7 wins
2009 - 2.6 wins (interpolated)
2010 - 2.6 wins (interpolated)

A total of 11.6 wins. Meaning that the Devil Rays came out nine wins ahead. I think that's a conservative estimate, but appropriately so given the discount you need for the uncertainty over Kazmir's future.

Anyway, call it ten to fifteen million dollars that the Mets gave the Devil Rays.

Let's look at this another way, though. Who are Scott Kazmir's best comparisons as a player, according to PECOTA? Eight players were reasonably close. They were:

Mike McQueen, 1971
Don Gullett, 1971
Curt Simmons, 1949
Johnny Antonelli, 1950
Jim Palmer, 1966
Jose Rijo, 1985
Ray Sadecki, 1961
Sam McDowell, 1963

McQueen, a reliever, blew out his arm and disappeared. Over the next six years, here's what the other seven did:

Don Gullett went 84-40, started ten postseason games, twice finished in the Top 1o of the Cy Young balloting. He also had hurt his arm quite badly during this time.

Curt Simmons went 69-52, missing a year in the services. Was top 10 in wins and ERA four times, strikeouts twice. ERA+es of 120, 130, 130 and 143. Was picked to two all-star teams.

Johnny Antonelli missed two years in the services, then went 67-48 the next four years, including two 20-win seasons. Led the league in ERA once, win percentage once, ERA+ once. Third in MVP voting in '54, three All-Star selections. ERA+es of 124, 176, 121, 132.

Jim Palmer hurt his arm, missed almost all of two years, then went 77-33 the next four years, 80-34 overall. Finished in the top 3 in ERA three times, fourth the other year. Three twenty-win seasons. ERA+es of 152, 134, 125, 149.

Jose Rijo battled inconsistency, but went 60-46. Fourth in Cy Young voting once, a World Series MVP award, three top-5 finishes in ERA. ERA+es of 150, 127, 146, 151.

Ray Sadecki went 59-58, again battling some inconsistency. Lots of bad ERA+ numbers, only two good years - one of which was a 20-win season where he finished 10th in ERA.

Sam McDowell went 83-68, was an All-Star four times, led the league in strikeouts four times and was second once, came third in Cy Young balloting. ERA+es of 133, 161, 120, 163, 128.

I'm not saying that just because Kazmir is more comparable to these players than anyone else, that he's therefore going to be a star. I just think it's extraordinarily likely - no matter what Rick Peterson's opinion on the matter is - that Kazmir is going to be a better pitcher in real life, than Victor Zambrano is in his dreams. Ray Sadecki was the worst pitcher in this list (other than McQueen, who got hurt) and Sadecki was basically Zambrano's equal. The Devil Rays seem to have gotten a good deal; we won't know until probably 2007 at the earliest.
Dissecting the Deal : Mets - Devil Rays | 15 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_Nigel - Tuesday, August 03 2004 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#44418) #
Craig, I basically agree with all of your comments on this trade. The one (and only) redeeming feature of this trade is that Zambrano is in the here and now and Kazmir is in the possibly future world. What I think this trade speaks volumes for is a growing management philosophy of the top teams (from a revenue perspective) to "get rid" of their prospects because by the time a prospect develops they will have had time to go and get a major league ready player instead through free agency or trade that could not be afforded by that player's existing team. Call it the Yankees philosophy (of the last 5 years) of player management. I don't have a problem with the philosophy if done right. The problem with this trade is that they acquired someone who just isn't that good. Essentially, Zambrano is Ted Lilly Light (and that's charitable to Zambrano). For a contending team that makes him a 4th or 5th starter at best. When I saw the trade it did make me wonder what JP could have acquired had he put Lilly up for auction (given his pricetag I wasn't advocating that but it does make you wonder).
_Tassle - Tuesday, August 03 2004 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#44419) #
I just feel so sorry for all the Mets fans when I think about what Duquette threw away for an outside chance at the playoffs this year. Barring injuries and TINSTAAPP, we have a above average starter, possible ace, a future starting catcher, a present average starting third baseman and some prospects. And I don't buy the argument that they are playing for the now: the fact is, they aren't making the playoffs this year without a miracle. If they had waited until the winter, they could sign Benson and, I don't know, Kevin Millwood or Matt Clement or any number of other average starting pitchers readily available on the market this offseason. Then, starting next year, they'd still have Kazmir, Wigginton, Huber, and the other prospects in addition to the 2 average starting pitchers. It just blows my mind.
_dp - Tuesday, August 03 2004 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#44420) #
Incidently, as a Jays and Mets fan, I'd have been happy with either the Benson or Zambrano packages for Lilly or Bautista. Hubner is rumored to be moving to 1B and looks like a fine hitter, good eye and young enough to develop more power. Wigg has come on this year and become very valuable. I wonder if Duke even called JP...I don't think JP would've dealt Bautista, but I can't see him turning down Lilly for Kazmir.
_Paul D - Tuesday, August 03 2004 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#44421) #
I really like this analysis Craig. I can't wait to see your take on the Florida-LA trade. I just heard Dan Shulman on the fan say that the Dodgers made a poor trade, and I just don't see it.
_A - Tuesday, August 03 2004 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#44422) #
Kazmir apparently had a tender elbow to begin the year. Anyone know what the status on that is?
_miVulgar - Tuesday, August 03 2004 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#44423) #
I really like this analysis Craig. I can't wait to see your take on the Florida-LA trade. I just heard Dan Shulman on the fan say that the Dodgers made a poor trade, and I just don't see it.

Agreed. Nice job Craig...

You can add me to the group that thinks Penny(!) and Choi outweigh what the Dodgers gave up...
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 03 2004 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#44424) #
Curiously, Zambrano's comparables according to BR include Steve Karsay, Octavio Dotel and Jason Isringhausen. Is his future as a closer?

Gullett might be the best comp for Kazmir. Young lefty with elbow problems. His ERA+ in his first with 3 seasons were 127, 82 and 97. His ratios were OK to good, but not outstanding. His won-loss record with the Big Red Machine was indeed great.

At first glance, Kazmir can indeed be projected objectively to be more valuable than Gullett. However, Zambrano's major advantage over Kazmir is that he is healthy and 28. This is no small thing.

What Peterson did in Oakland and what he's doing in New York (with Glavine and Trachsel) has persuaded me that there is no one in the game today who understands pitching better than he does. If he believes that Kazmir will be unable to stay healthy and that Zambrano will be an above-average starter in the context of Shea Stadium and Mike Cameron, I will withhold judgment.
_Jim - Tuesday, August 03 2004 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#44425) #
I don't see why you burn Kazmir on Zambrano when it's 50/50 that Zambrano gets non-tendered and then he's yours at a monetary price, but you still own Kazmir.
_Daryn - Wednesday, August 04 2004 @ 08:22 AM EDT (#44426) #
I don't see why you burn Kazmir on Zambrano when it's 50/50 that Zambrano gets non-tendered and then he's yours at a monetary price, but you still own Kazmir.

Some of these GM's think they should do ANYTHING to win now, on the basis that they are so smart they can steal a Kazmir equivalent back from someone else within the next 2 years.
_tangotiger - Thursday, August 05 2004 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#44427) #
http://www.tangotiger.net
When looking at prospects, especially pitchers, you should try to concentrate on risk levels, since that's how management thinks.

Also, there's no guarantee that Kaz will start pitching in 2005.

So, you have a certainly possibility of injury prior to reaching MLB, and then chance of injury as he's getting better. With pitchers especially, the value has to be heavily discounted.

That said, it's hard to believe that no other team was offering more for Kazmir.

On the other hand, Peterson believes he holds the key to turning Zambrano around. That said, it's hard to believe that Tampa got an offer this good from any other team.

In the end, you probably have a 20% chance that this deal is good for the Mets (if Kaz gets injured before reaching the bigs), 40% that this is good for Tampa, and 40% is even.

However, because of the way the marketplace values Kazmir, and the way they value Zambrano, I would guess that the Mets could have done a deal where it was 40-40-20 instead.

In short, the Mets did not exploit the inefficiencies of the marketplace.
_Mick - Thursday, August 05 2004 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#44428) #
I don't see why you burn Kazmir on Zambrano

Because the Mets were scared to death that the Yankees would get Randy Johnson and hog the back pages of the Post, News and Newsday for the rest of the year.

If Jim Duquette does nothing there and Brian Cashman gets, say, Johnson and Alomar, the Mets get killed in the papers when they don't win the pennant. Which they won't, anway -- so essentially Duquette paid the difference between Kazmir and Zambrano as the cost of avoiding bad PR.
Craig B - Thursday, August 05 2004 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#44429) #
With pitchers especially, the value has to be heavily discounted

The PECOTA system does this already. The risk discount is built-in; that's why good pitchers in their early 20s see their projections go down for 4-5 years out when they would be in their prime.
_Mick - Thursday, August 05 2004 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#44430) #
Well, if Peterson really meant it when he told Duquette he could "fix Zambrano in 10 minutes," let's assume they haven't actually had that discussion yet.

Although VZ got the win today, he needed 110 pitches (62 strikes) to get through 5.1 innings -- 8H, 6R, 4ER, 3BB, 7K. He gave up three in the first and three in the sixth before leaving. But hey, he was GREAT in the second, third and fourth innings!

And I admit, there's something nice and resonant about the box score when the Metsies win a game using four pitchers: Zambrano, Feliciano, Bottalico and Franco.
Craig B - Monday, August 09 2004 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#44431) #
Incidentally, I spoke with Nate Silver who invented the PECOTA system, and yes, the risk discounting for injuries is built into the system already.

Watch for my LA-Florida trade analysis coming up tomorrow.
_tangotiger - Monday, August 09 2004 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#44432) #
Craig,

It may not have been clear, but I meant the injury risk for Kazmir while still in the minors. Whatever comps Kazmir has must also include players NOT in MLB at his age.

That is, say Kaz is 21, and his best comps historically are 30 pitchers, of which 10 of them made the majors at 22, 10 at 23, and 5 were injured and never made it, and 5 were never called up. It's not clear to me that Nate's system takes this into account.

It's more likely that Nate'll look at guys already in the majors at 21 or 22, and find his comps that way.

Once Kazmir is in the majors, then he'd be beset by the same discount injury rate as Zambrano (more or less), and in comparing pitcher-to-pitcher, I wouldn't consider it much.

This issue goes to the heart of my issues with MLEs and comps, as it's really a product of multiple endpoints, when it comes to players that are one or more levels below MLB.

Tom
Dissecting the Deal : Mets - Devil Rays | 15 comments | Create New Account
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