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Over the past two days we’ve presented our assessments of the men paid to throw, catch, and hit baseballs down at the SkyDome in 2004. What of those designated to collect and guide the on-field talent? We graded them too, and here’s what we thought of the job they did.




Carlos Tosca: C
(GPA 1.93, High B-, Low D)

Mike D: As a preliminary matter, it's worth bearing this in mind: If Tosca was really bestowed with responsibility to implement organizational strategy from above -- as implied by several pre-season J.P. interviews -- then the front office bears at least partial responsibility for his strategic failings.

But make no mistake, there were failings. First and foremost, there was the almost defiantly unsettled nature of the bullpen coming out of spring training, as Tosca decided not to assign define roles to either the bullpen incumbents or the offseason acquisitions. Rather than creating a versatile, hungry stable of relievers, the bullpen instead was a repository of stressed, uneasy ballplayers. On the offensive side of the ball, the club played a plodding station-to-station style, even when it was clear that the power production required to make that strategy work was simply not forthcoming in the '04 season. Then, when Tosca began sending runners and bunting guys over, it was done haphazardly.

Most importantly, for whatever reason, the team just played flat baseball under Tosca. April was one of the most important months in recent franchise history, and the Jays' record lurched from 0-3, 3-11 and 8-18. Toronto fans weren't expecting a championship, but they expected to see a team that would win its share of games and fight like hell in the games they didn't win. The Jays' shockingly desultory performance in the season's opening series against the Tigers played a large part in this season's being over before it really started. If Toronto played gutsy ball during its April struggles, players and fans alike would have viewed the rest of the season through a different lens. But the club just didn't seem to be playing hard, and esprit de corps, rightly or wrongly, is the manager's bailiwick. Good luck, Carlos.

Jordan: There was some debate over whether Tosca deserved to be fired. Well, he'd led his team to another self-burying .350 April, the club was in or near the basement, and Dave Berg was getting semi-regular playing time. Managers must either win games or develop young talent: Tosca was doing neither. If it wasn't all his fault, it was still his responsibility.

Moffatt: Overall did a pretty credible job, but needs to handle his bullpen better. Needed to establish roles for players in the bullpen and have them stick. Despite what the mainstream media says he wasn't a scapegoat for the season. At worst he was only a small part of the problem.

Craig B: I fully expect Carlos Tosca, despite his low profile, to be given another chance by another organization, and be extremely successful. The most disappointing event to me this season, other than Josh Phelps falling into oblivion, was Tosca's firing. Not that I deny it needed to be done; just that it became necessary. Tosca is a fine leader and has all the potential to be a very good manager; any team that makes him their AAA manager with an eye to making him their heir-apparent at the major league level will do well. It was a shame that his weaknesses (such as bullpen management) served to magnify the team's weaknesses, while his best strength - as a teacher and encourager of young players and a fine manager of the offense - were obscured by dozens of injuries.



John Gibbons: B
(GPA 2.91, High A, Low C)

Jonny: What do I like about John Gibbons? He stabilized the bullpen; he gave Woodward the regular playing time needed to establish if Chris has a future with the club; his batting lineups made sense; he didn’t play Dave Berg; he talked straight in the media; he gave all of the September call-ups some playing time, and they all showed some positive signs. Unlike the man he replaced, I saw no systemic flaws in how Gibbons deployed the resources available to him. I look forward to a full season with Gibby calling the shots.

Craig: The jury is still out on John Gibbons. A "C" is not a bad grade, but it would have been better if Gibby hadn't overseen a long, crippling cold streak immediately after his hiring, including a stretch where the Jays' pitching was consistently battered for a week. I have great confidence in him for 2005.



J.P. Ricciardi: B-
(GPA 2.60, High B, Low C)

Jonny: In the past year, the brains of the operation signed Hentgen, Ligtenberg, Batista, Terry Adams, Gomez, and Zaun; traded Kielty for Lilly, Hendrickson for Speier, Werth for Frasor, Adams for Hattig, Phelps for Crozier, and a bag of beans for Mighty Mouse; called up just about everybody from the farm to the majors; said so long to Escobar, Politte, Trever Miller, and Lidle; drafted some really big pitchers and signed the organization’s first two Asian hurlers; and re-arranged the coaching staff, notably Gibbons in and Tosca out as manager. Stand Pat this ain’t, in style nor in on-field results. But the process still appears solid to me, and the lousy performance largely unpredictable (and unavoidable, once the roof started caving in), so I’m still in the J.P. camp with a solid passing grade.

Craig: We are grading on results, and Ricciardi's results in the 2004 season were not good. The team slipped almost 20 games in the standings despite splashy new free agent signings; his handpicked bullpen was terrible; players traded away looked good and players brought in often looked poor. As with Gibbons, I have confidence in him for the future, but the shine is off.

Jordan: He gets a fair bit of slack because of all the injuries, but his team still finished last after an 86-win 2003 season that couldn't have been a complete mirage. I still think he's got the right idea for building a competitive franchise on a budget, and that his organization's overall performance (especially on the farm) was okay. But Craig nailed it: those who leave the club seem to improve and those who arrive go south, and nobody seems to know why. The shine is most certainly off.

Moffatt: I absolutely love what this guy is doing with the drafts and the minor leagues and Lilly for Kielty was a terrific deal. Seems incapable of putting together a bullpen. Uses way too many relievers and utility infielders. The team needs more bench players who can actually hit, though the Menechino pickup was terrific. Dave Berg in the outfield was a crime against nature but given how many injuries there were to outfielders in the Jays system I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on that one. He needs to show that he can pick up quality players from the other 28 non-Athletics teams.

Mike D: JP's grade is fair, because his roster construction heading into the season was well-conceived. Nobody could have predicted disaster striking on every imaginable front.

That said, he was indecisive when the wheels began to fall off. He wasn't aggressive in the trade market to address shortcomings or injuries when they arose, and he didn't call up the kids. Then, after the season had completely drifted away, he called up the kids anyway, negating any of the benefits of sheltering them earlier in the season. B-plus for building the club, C-minus for in-season moves...final grade of B-minus. That said, if the Jays aren't .500 or better in 2005, I can't see how he avoids a C grade or worse.




Summary

The following table summarizes all the grades we’ve handed out for your 2004 Toronto Blue Jays.

Player Final High Low GPA
Lilly A- A+ B 3.72
Menechino A- A+ C 3.68
Zaun A- A+ B- 3.55
Player Final High Low GPA
Hudson B+ A B 3.46
Bush B+ A B- 3.42
Frasor B A B- 3.13
Delgado B A C 3.06
Rios B A C+ 3.04
Speier B A- C 3.03
Gibbons B A C 2.91
Gomez B- A C 2.73
Wells B- B+ C- 2.62
Ricciardi B- B C 2.60
Towers B- A- C 2.59
Player Final High Low GPA
Chulk C+ B D+ 2.44
Johnson C+ B+ D+ 2.34
Halladay C+ B D+ 2.30
Catalanotto C+ B+ D+ 2.24
Gross C B D+ 2.14
Batista C B D+ 2.02
Tosca C B- D 1.93
File C- B D- 1.58
Adams, T C- B F 1.55
Berg C- B+ F 1.53
Player Final High Low GPA
Miller D+ B- F 1.49
Hinske D+ C D- 1.43
Phelps D+ B F 1.28
Clark D+ B F 1.24
Frederick D+ B- F 1.22
Woodward D C F 0.95
Nakamura D C F 0.93
Kershner D- C F 0.87
Cash D- C F 0.85
Ligtenberg D- C F 0.76
Player Final High Low GPA
de los Santos E D F 0.47
Hentgen E D F 0.46
Lopez F D F 0.21

2004 Blue Jays Final Grades – Management | 26 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_DeMarco - Friday, November 05 2004 @ 10:00 AM EST (#19125) #
Carlos Tosca: C

Carlos had a lot of bad luck this season with injuries and was in an almost impossible situation, he has to be cut some slack. However there were 3 key decisions in my mind that made me question whether he was a good manager:
1) Naming Terry Adams the closer - I didn't understand this move at all, Adams had done nothing to prove that he could close and I though he had 3 better options at the time (Speier, Ligtenburg and Lopez)
2) Playing Dave Berg in the outfield - not only did Berg look totally lost in the outfield, he just can't hit.
3) The clincher for me was batting Bobby Estalella 5th after he was called up - he was a player that no other teams wanted, wasn't hitting well in Syracuse, and is a career .216 hitter.

John Gibbons: C+

I really like John Gibbons, he always seems positive, great with the media, great with the players and really didn't seem to make any mistakes. I'm really glad he was given the manager’s job for 2005.

However, by the time Gibbons took over the job almost all of the players were healthy again. Delgado was back to his hitting of old, Wells was playing every day, and the rotation and bullpen were in much better shape. This was pretty much the team that we all thought would win around 85 games (Costas prediction aside), unfortunately they went 20-30 during Gibbons reign.

J.P. Ricciardi: B-

J.P. gets a bit of a break because of the injuries that plagued the Jays, I did think there were a lot of positives in 2004:
- While the major league and Syracuse teams struggled, the rest of the organization flourished; New Hampshire Fisher Cats (AA), Dunedin Blue Jays (A), Charleston Alley Cats (A), Auburn Doubledays (A) and Pulaski Blue Jays (R).
- We finally got to see some of J.P.'s draftees in the majors, Bush and Adams both look like very good players.
- J.P. picked up a few players that played very well (Mennechino, Zaun, Lilly, Frasor, Speier, etc.)
- When the season was lost, he made the right moves and brought up the prospects for a look (Gross, Bush, Adams, Rios, Frederick, Chacin, League, Chulk, etc.)

We all know the negatives, so I won't rehash those.
_Daryn - Friday, November 05 2004 @ 10:29 AM EST (#19126) #
J.P. Ricciardi: B to A-

I believe that the signings of Veterans such as Hentgen, Adams Zaun, Myers, Estellela and Menchino were driven by a need to put people onto the field, without getting stung with long term commitments... and with those guys they got about 6 extra bench coaches for free...

Hentgen would either succeed or retire, and the rest would either be servicable, actually increase in value and be tradeable, or simply be cut free at the end of the season.... So I like the veteran signings...

As to pitching, Lilly worked out but I think Batista is a mistake... I think Batista is an example of a guy with "good ratios" in short usage that doesnt' really work out over the long haul... he has tantalized me for a couple years in fantasy leagues, but each time I avoided him I felt better for it...

Still, if you are trying to find a diamond in the rough, and it doesn't matter a lot if you are right in terms of "this year".. then he was a good signing.. what I regret is the multi-year deal, but that was probably necessary to get him.....

The rookies seemed to have been well evaluated, getting rid of Woodward was necessary and predictable... cutting the budget wasn't his idea... but if you think of where we'd be if we still had Mondesi, Phelps, Woodward, Cruz, A-Gon, Fullmer, Loaiza, Koch, still hanging around and sucking up payroll, you have to be pleased as his willingness to DUMP the dead wood...

How much less do you suppose Rioa, Myers, Adams, Cat, Gomez, Crozier, Miller, and Fraser cost then the list above, for relatively the same results....

My vote is only as low as it is, because its too early to tell if the big "plan" is actually going to develop a replica of the Oakland A's or more of a Buffalo Bisons...

But in terms of dollar effectiveness in a time where winning was NOT going to happen anyway... I am in favour of most of the moves...
_Caino - Friday, November 05 2004 @ 02:52 PM EST (#19127) #
All that said. I remain ever optimistic. Of the players graded D or lower, only Lightenberg and Hinske project to be back at the start of the season.
Hinske it seems may never bounce back to his rookie form, but surely he can be expected to play better than this year.
Lightenberg may be a write-off. We cannot hold this against J.P. as who knew untill recently that he had arthritis in his hip. I doubt J.P. would've given him multi-year, multi-million dollar contract knowing that.

In the C's, I'd bet my house that Halliday and Catalanotto will play way better this season comming. Batista is a bit more of a question mark. That said, I think we can all agree, him bouncing back and posting a good season would go along way to solidifying our pitching staff.

Add that too Adams who looked very sharp in his month of service, and a few other prospects that project to contribute at some point this season, (Gross, who got a C, but wasn't ready, Quiroz, Hill, Perhaps Hattig.) and these grades seem alot more depressing at first glance, than perhaps they truly are.

Also, though finishing last in one's division cannot be seen as a good season. Gaining a sixth pick in this years draft is very exciting. Last year, J.P. stole the show with his drafting performance, and this year, he has far better position in the first round. And his 2nd round pick is not far back form our sandwhich pick of yesteryear.

Optimism aside. I'd have to be crazy to not assign a 'D' to team.
_Ron - Friday, November 05 2004 @ 04:38 PM EST (#19128) #
A part of me came into this thread expecting JP to get a high grade and I'm glad that didn't happen.

Pretty much the major stuff about JP has been touched on already.

The one argument I'll never understand is this:

The people that aren't high on JP's performance so far (I would include myself in this category)will point out Batista, Ligtenberg, and Adams were bad signings. JP supporters fire back with well they were good signings in the off-season that simply didn't pan out so you can't really fault JP for this.

I'm puzzled because at the end of the road it doesn't matter if the signings were "good" at the time, the end result is that they were mistakes.

That's like if I was an investor and 3 of my friends trusted me with their money. I see this Subway franchise doing well and it's for sale so I scoop it up using my own dough as well as 3 of my friends dough. Everything looks good but one year later for some reason crime has picked in the area and the sales have gone down by 200%. Now we're all losing money and my 3 buddies are pissed. It doesn't matter if it looked like it was a good investment at the time, it's the results that matter and in this aspect I failed. My 3 buddies are and should be pissed off.

If the Jays finish with let's say 75 wins next season I wonder if people will still be fully in JP's corner. I'm sure JP supporters will point out how you have to give young players at least 2-3 years of major league playing time before they start to blossom and how you can't fault JP for having a small budget and playing a lot of games vs. Red Sox and Yanks.

I didn't like JP's defeatist attitude late towards last season. When he took the job he told Rogers and Godfrey he could win on a small budget (even back then he knew the Yanks and Red Sox would spend to win)and I'm sure he never expected Rogers to ever jack the payroll up to 90 mil. After this season JP said if everything went the Jays way they might be able to sneak into a wildcard one of these years.
And he said the Jays might be able to compete in 2006 or 2007.

I don't see that swagger and confidence for him anymore. This season really humbled him. I hope JP proves me wrong and makes the Jays playoff/World Series contender soon but I doubt this will happen.
_Dean - Friday, November 05 2004 @ 05:23 PM EST (#19129) #
While Moffatt thinks that the draft and minors have been strengths under JP I disagree. Yes we have seen Adams & Bush with The Jays and that is a definite good thing, they are not the type of players you build a team arond that will beat the BoSox & Yankees. Right now there are no apparent super-stars acquired by JP in the Jays system that will match up with Manny or Sheff.
Coming into this spring after two JP drafts our impact prospects were McGowan and Rios. This last draft has added Purcey to the mix but while the Jays were drafting senior RHP's in rounds 3& 4 the Twins were taking a chance and drafting guys with higher ceilings.
I acknowledge the higher attrition rate of high school players but safe picks who if they reach their potential become bullpen fodder or battle for that 5th starter job won't beat the big spenders.
Think back to League facing Sheffield, his fastball setup that slider so well that it made Sheffield look very uncimftorable up there. Vermilyea, Marcum, Janssen, Mastny etc, won't be making Sheffield take such a poor hack for strike the first time facing them. Should it happen I'll gladly buy you a beer Moffatt.
Named For Hank - Friday, November 05 2004 @ 06:02 PM EST (#19130) #
Dean, I don't quite understand your post -- are you saying that in your analysis of Manny and Sheff's minor league careers you can find no similar trajectories in the Jays system at any level, or simply that none of our minor leaguers are as good as Manny and Sheff are right now, today?
Pistol - Friday, November 05 2004 @ 06:05 PM EST (#19131) #
I'm puzzled because at the end of the road it doesn't matter if the signings were "good" at the time, the end result is that they were mistakes.

I see your point, but I don't think it's that black and white.

If you're playing blackjack and the dealer is showing a 6 and you're on 11 and you double down and pull a 2 and the dealer ends up with 18 is it the wrong move because you lost? Of course not, it just didn't work out in that instance.

If you make a dumb decision that works out is it a good move? I'd say no, you're just lucky.

The key is to make consistently good decisions. Over the long haul you'll get more winners than losers if you do that.
_Ron - Friday, November 05 2004 @ 06:38 PM EST (#19132) #
The key is to make consistently good decisions. Over the long haul you'll get more winners than losers if you do that.

It would be interesting to see a list of all the moves JP has made since becoming the GM.

I'm have a feeling the bad moves outnumber the good moves but of course this is all in the eye of the beholder. One person may say Frasor for Werth was a good trade while sombody else may say it's a bad trade.

But so far in JP's tenure he has only made one roster move that has had a big positive impact on the club (Lilly). But of course that's only my opinion as I realize somebody could argue signing Greg Zaun has had a big positive impact on the Jays.

To sum up my feelings I'm not as big of a supporter/fan of JP as most of you guys are. Because he supposedly has such an eye for talent I would have thought he would have been able to aquire some undervalued guys off other rosters whether this be at the Big League Level or a player blocked in the minors by now.
Craig B - Friday, November 05 2004 @ 11:02 PM EST (#19133) #
I'm puzzled because at the end of the road it doesn't matter if the signings were "good" at the time, the end result is that they were mistakes.

At the end of the day, J.P. bears responsibility for the team's performance. That doesn't mean the right way to look at individual signings is to call them "good" or "bad" based on a single year's performance. That's incredibly simplistic and short-sighted, Ron, and it's a standard of reasoning and argument that people are becoming accustomed to hearing out of you here. Pistol's point about blackjack is *precisely* a propos.

Now, it's not that simple. At the end of the day, over a period of years, you judge that player based on whether he wins or loses money. Just as J.P. will be (and is) judged on results. But in medias res, you have to make a more nuanced judgment, and the realities of the baseball business in these times means one has to look at more than just raw wins and losses in judging a GM's performance anyway.

But so far in JP's tenure he has only made one roster move that has had a big positive impact on the club (Lilly).

Twelve, by my count, if you don't count the moves he didn't make like tying up the budget in Cruz and Stewart. That also doesn't count the positive impact he's had in drafting and ESPECIALLY player development.
Craig B - Friday, November 05 2004 @ 11:02 PM EST (#19134) #
It would be thirteen if you add in firing Buck Martinez's sorry butt, which I do.
Mike Green - Friday, November 05 2004 @ 11:03 PM EST (#19135) #
While Moffatt thinks that the draft and minors have been strengths under JP I disagree. Yes we have seen Adams & Bush with The Jays and that is a definite good thing, they are not the type of players you build a team arond that will beat the BoSox & Yankees. Right now there are no apparent super-stars acquired by JP in the Jays system that will match up with Manny or Sheff.

Gary Sheffield was the 6th pick overall in the 1986 draft. Manny Ramirez was the 13th pick of the 1991 draft and Cliff Floyd and Shawn Green were still on the boards when he was chosen. You can't judge JP's drafting by what other teams have been able to draft in other years. The only reasonable standard is what he has achieved given his draft position and the quality of the draft, and by that standard JP has, in my view, done extremely well from 2002-2004.

It's a lot easier to draft a superstar when you're drafting 6th or when the draft is deep in hitters. JP might well have a chance at that in the summer of 2005.

Shaun Marcum incidentally has excellent stuff and control. He routinely has made hitters look silly for 2-3 innings. If League is to be the Henke of 2006, I expect Marcum to be the Ward. Aaron Hill, who you didn't mention, will be a fine, fine player. You need those guys, and getting one with a mid-first round selection is a great result.
Craig B - Saturday, November 06 2004 @ 12:03 AM EST (#19136) #
While Moffatt thinks that the draft and minors have been strengths under JP I disagree.

Baseball America - whose judgment you generally seem to find reliable - agrees with Mike, having given J.P. very good or excellent grades for each draft so far, and the Jays' minor league system continues to climb their overall rankings.

the Twins were taking a chance and drafting guys with higher ceilings

I can't believe we're still getting this crap from you, Dean. Honestly - you don't know ANYTHING about these guys. If you could even name the pitchers Minnesota drafted in rounds 3 and 4 I'd be surprised.

In Round 3, Toronto was busy drafting Adam Lind - generally seen as one of the top hitters in the NYP league last year - and Danny Hill in the third round. Hill's been pitching for exactly three years, so he has a younger arm than most HS pitchers. The Blue Jays did indeed have to economize on Hill, they overdrafted him a touch and his lower signing bonus reflects that. He's done nothing to disappoint so far.

Hill's got two pitches right now that look to be of eventual major-league quality - a sinking fastball in the low 90s, and an excellent, late-breaking slider. As he gains experience, I imagine he will improve the other pitches in his repertoire (or maybe not - Hill has reliever written all over him). Remember, he has less pitching experience than most HS pitchers. He's extremely athletic.

Minnesota in the third round took a chunky high school righthander, Eduardo Morlan out of Miami, Florida. Morlan's a nice catch; he was seen as definitely physically ready for college (he's a big kid), ranked as the #138 pitcher by Baseball America going into the college recruiting schedule. So the Twins probably overreached for him a bit, but couldn't get a bargain out of him, as he signed for slot money. Morlan didn't pitch particularly well results-wise at Miami Coral Gables HS, but the scouts liked him and his stuff (he's also a fastball-slider guy). Morlan's got control issues (though he has the time to straighten them out); in the GCL, the lowest professional league, he wasn't much special but he held his own and got some Ks, which is what you want to see. He was about average in the GCL, which is decent for an 18-year-old. He's gotten a lot of exposure because he came up through the "RBI" program, MLB's program to promote baseball in the inner cities. RBI grads seem to get overdrafted - witness toolsy shortstop Chris Nelson going to the Rockies up at the #9 pick.

In Round 4, Toronto got Casey Janssen, who was, out of 3800 or so pitchers in the NCAA in 2004, the 7th most effective. (Plug : The final rankings of the Top 50 pitchers and hitters, including all the CWS games, will be included in the upcoming THT Baseball Annual - and the Top 40 College Teams by a brand-new method!) Back to Janssen... this is a guy who retired hitters more effectively, and saved more runs for his team, than guys like Sowers, Townsend, Humber, and Diamond. He's got a superb pitcher's body. He throws four pitchers and makes hitters swing and miss with all of them, even guys using aluminum. He went to Auburn, and continued to pitch well against the cream of the college crop (and a few seasonsed pros to boot, of course).

Janssen is another guy with an extremely young arm and not a ton of pitching experience, as he wasn't a fulltime pitcher until his junior year (but he has more experience than Hill). He should also continue to improve with experience, in spite of being in the senior class in 2004. BA are pretty big Janssen fans.

Minnesota, meanwhile, took HS outfielder Mark Robinson from California. Robinson projects as a four-tool (maybe three-and-a-half-tool) player - his lack of speed keeps him on the outfield and he's apparently not an infielder. The MLB scouting report on him says he pulls his hand off the bat, which screams spray/singles hitter to me, and yep, it says "spray hitter" in the report too. A singles hitter locked into the corners? Hm. I can't say I understand that, and I'm betting that Minnesota are going to try to remake him.

Robinson went to the GCL and was terrible, hitting .215 with no power or patience. (.215/.259/.274). But he's 18, and I always give a kid that age three more years before drawing final conclusions. Early returns are not good.

Minnesota paid twice for Robinson what the Jays did for Janssen, too, which can't be discounted.

Look, I'm not running down the Twins, who have the very best player development program in the major leagues. They *know* what they are doing. The Blue Jays are doing something a bit different; we don't know whether it will be successful but the early returns are very good.

To say Robinson has a higher ceiling than Janssen isn't justified, in my view... sure, Mark Robinson has a 1 in 3,000 chance of being the next Tony Gwynn (I know Gwynn was a college guy, but bear with me). Janssen's 1 in 3,000 guy probably isn't quite as good as Gwynn, maybe someone like Dave Stieb?

Actually, I don't even know about that. I think Janssen has better than a 1 in 3,000 shot at being Dave Stieb (not much better :)

But in terms of practical upside, we're looking at what, the 1% or 2% chance? Mark Robinson's practical upside, as he stands, is probably Garret Anderson. Janssen's is, if not quite Dave Stieb, probably Mark Buehrle. That looks like a tie to me, and when you add in that the Twins will have to make a final decision on him very quickly (Robinson won't be out of A ball before he's eligible for the Rule 5 draft) the Jays get the better deal.
Craig B - Saturday, November 06 2004 @ 12:12 AM EST (#19137) #
A part of me came into this thread expecting JP to get a high grade and I'm glad that didn't happen.

This is something I don't understand, actually. It's one thing to come around here and trash him *yourself*. It's another thing entirely to want others to do the same. Why would you want us to be harsh on him? Just to agree with you? Do you have personal issues with him? If you do, maybe you should put pen to paper and write directly to him.
_Dean - Saturday, November 06 2004 @ 12:22 AM EST (#19138) #
My point on the prospects drafted by JP is at this time they don't have the potential to match up with the Sheffields and the Mannys, not about when they were taken in the draft or from what talent pool. There are no positional players who at this time in their development, and these are all supposed to be advanced players,who are going to match up with the offences of the big spenders.

Marcum is not going to make one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball take a swing like League induced out of Sheffield because Sheffield won't have to worry about a 96mph fastball. Marcum may very well be an effective reliever but with his stuff he does not project to be a dominant pitcher at the major league level and if the Jays are going to compete with the Yankees their system has got to start producing some studs.

I like Hill and Adams alot, but who is going to drive them in or be on base for them?
Craig B - Saturday, November 06 2004 @ 01:03 AM EST (#19139) #
Marcum may very well be an effective reliever but with his stuff he does not project to be a dominant pitcher at the major league level

No, you don't get it. Nobody but Mark Prior "projects to be a dominant pitcher at the major league level". The guys who project to be dominant at the big league level are ALL high first-round picks. Heck, there was a #1 overall pick recently who didn't project (if everyone was being honest) to be dominant at the major league level.

Now there are a lot more guys who have a shot to be a big-time pitcher. But they don't "project" that way, and if someone does project them (and scouts do this all the time; most prospects are vastly, VASTLY overblown) they're just flat wrong.
_Dean - Saturday, November 06 2004 @ 01:35 AM EST (#19140) #
Craig, I do know who the Twins drafted in the 3rd & 4th rounds.You were the one that gave them a poor grade on the 2nd day of the draft and I thought it was very balanced with both prep & college players being taken.
Why don't you point out in your assessment of Janssen that he "occaisionaly throws a major league fastball". That will scare that Yankee lineup.

Robinson is five years younger and will be solid defensively and projects to hit, as per the same report you quoted above.

BA did rank the Jays 2002 draft very high at the time but have down graded it now while the Dodgers draft without the advanced college players has remained near the top in their rankings. Jim Callis said that Logan White has not been outdrafted by anyone in the past three years.

BA's top ten prospect list had 3 of JP's picks making the top 10 with Hill the highest at #6. Josh Banks at #19 in the Florida State League was the only JP draft pick recognized as a top 20 prospect in A ball, none in Low A.

This site asks for our opinions & mine differs from yours, fielding a bunch of average players is not going to win the pennant.
_Jonny German - Saturday, November 06 2004 @ 01:54 AM EST (#19141) #
Dean, if you're going to make your assessments based on sample sizes of one pitch, you'll never be happy with a logical, be-the-house type of management. The house doesn't take "high-ceiling" risks. The house always wins.

My point on the prospects drafted by JP is at this time they don't have the potential to match up with the Sheffields and the Mannys

That's not a point, that's a random waving of the hands in the air. Manny and Sheffield are Hall-of-Fame calibre players. To expect any given team to draft one of those every 3 years is ludicrous. To think you could identify a player as such before said player has even played a full season in the big leagues is beyond ludicrous.
_Caino - Saturday, November 06 2004 @ 03:23 AM EST (#19142) #
Imagine a one-two "punch" (no pun intended) of League and Prior closing out games for the Jays in a couple of years.
_Ron - Saturday, November 06 2004 @ 03:41 AM EST (#19143) #
At the end of the day, J.P. bears responsibility for the team's performance. That doesn't mean the right way to look at individual signings is to call them "good" or "bad" based on a single year's performance. That's incredibly simplistic and short-sighted, Ron, and it's a standard of reasoning and argument that people are becoming accustomed to hearing out of you here. Pistol's point about blackjack is *precisely* a propos.

Now, it's not that simple. At the end of the day, over a period of years, you judge that player based on whether he wins or loses money. Just as J.P. will be (and is) judged on results. But in medias res, you have to make a more nuanced judgment, and the realities of the baseball business in these times means one has to look at more than just raw wins and losses in judging a GM's performance anyway.


I believe you can judge a signing by one year of performance in certain situations. A good example is Terry Adams. JP realized he made a mistake and shipped him to the Red Sox.

Of course as for Ligtenberg and Batista they could both bounce back next season and play well but after one season the signings don't look good. I can only judge them as a Jay by the sample size I've been provided with.

I understand in order to judge a GM you have to look at more than just wins and loses at the major league level but in the grand scheme of things, that's where it counts the most. A GM can draft very well, pick quality guys from the Rule 5 Draft, make smart trades but if the Major League Club doesn't win the GM will eventually get axed.

This is something I don't understand, actually. It's one thing to come around here and trash him *yourself*. It's another thing entirely to want others to do the same. Why would you want us to be harsh on him? Just to agree with you? Do you have personal issues with him? If you do, maybe you should put pen to paper and write directly to him.

I'm not sure if the word "trashing" is the right word. That sounds a lot more harsh than what is really is. Looking at JP's 3 year tenure as Jays GM so far I haven't been overly impressed.

I made my comments because I sensed a bit of "fanboyish" attitude towards JP. There's been times earlier this season where I felt he could do no wrong in the eyes of some.

I've tried to personally contact JP to give him my thoughts but the FAN 590 toll free number doesn't work for me (I've mentioned this in a gamethread before).

Ultimately I want the Jays to succeed and win a World Series. I don't care if JP or Joe Blow is the GM that guides the Jays there.
_Daryn - Saturday, November 06 2004 @ 09:50 AM EST (#19144) #
I'm puzzled because at the end of the road it doesn't matter if the signings were "good" at the time, the end result is that they were mistakes.

Actually I believe that decisions themselves if based on sound logic and a reasonable plan are neither right nor wrong..

the logic could be wrong, and the plan could be wrong... and I think that is what makes a good GM...

the rest is either luck or data... and if the data isn't that good, then you enter an element of risk or luck in the actual results..

However the plan could be, sign 5 guys with a 40% chance of succeeding and expect 2 to work out....

if that is the plan, and 2 work out, then ALL 5 signed were "not" mistakes
Named For Hank - Saturday, November 06 2004 @ 09:59 AM EST (#19145) #
What drives me totally nuts about the "fanboy" charges is that they are baseless. What you will see is someone like Craig being very even-handed, criticizing J.P.'s individual decisions a lot, and then defending J.P. in one post against a ludicrous charge and subsequently being called a fanboy for it.

My point on the prospects drafted by JP is at this time they don't have the potential to match up with the Sheffields and the Mannys, not about when they were taken in the draft or from what talent pool.

How is this a sensible argument? "J.P. is bad at drafting because he didn't get Manny or Sheff in the draft even though they weren't available." Is that what you're saying, or am I missing some key piece of information?
_SF - Saturday, November 06 2004 @ 11:40 AM EST (#19146) #
What, no grades on the local media?
_Jonny German - Saturday, November 06 2004 @ 11:57 AM EST (#19147) #
You know how it goes, Spencer... "If you don't have anything nice to say..."

Now, the two national papers and the internet media covering the Jays, they're doing a fine job.
_Jonny German - Saturday, November 06 2004 @ 12:00 PM EST (#19148) #
I should clarify that I was referring to written media. The radio guys do a great job too.
Mike Green - Saturday, November 06 2004 @ 12:35 PM EST (#19149) #
Nah. But, we're thinking of you, Dr. Prison Fence.
_Moffatt - Sunday, November 07 2004 @ 12:19 AM EST (#19150) #
I've seen Fordin's report card and it ain't pretty. The phrase "doesn't play well with others" shows up quite a few times. ;)
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