Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
If you missed the earlier Cincinnati Reds preview a while back, in it we used the greatness of Baseball-Reference.com and their "most comparable players" list for each individual projected at the time (so long, Wily Mo) to be headed for the MLB roster in 2006.

We'll do the same thing here, with a few minor revisions, for the Jays' vaunted neighbor in Gotham, the 26-time World Champion New York Yankees, to see what we can learn about pinstriped prospects in the forthcoming campaign.

But first, a quick look back at how we did in projecting the last two seasons for the New Yorkers ...

In 2004's It's Deja Vu All Over Again, we projected a Yankees/Cubs World Series for the ages; in an upset of literally historical proportions, the Cardinals (much to Cub fan chagrin) and the Red Sox (speaking of historical proportions) had something to say about that.

Then in 2005's Stacking Up to History, this space forecast a Yankees/Reds Fall Classic; while we have taken the paddle to ourselves in the above-linked Reds '06 preview for the massive miscalculation on the NL side, it was, in another historic fallout, those Sox of a different (actually lack of) color who represented the A.L. and took home the rings.

In fact. after the remarkable run of four rings in Joe Torre's first five years as the NYY skipper, the Bronx Bombers haven't won a Series since 2000 and haven't even participated in a Fall Classic over the past four seasons, an interminable wait in Steinbrenner Time. Of course, only the 26-time champion Yankees could truly be "frustrated" by a four-year run that included 400 regular season wins and four division titles.

But such is life as a New York baseball fan.

So what's up for 2006? Well, as we did with that Reds forecast, let's play a little Match Game 2006, with the help of Sean Forman's indispensible Baseball-Reference.com (BBRef) Web site. Let's find out what we know about the 2006 Yankees by comparing each member of the projected roster to that player's historically most similar "comp" -- and here's the one change. We will take the comp who played the same position, at least sometimes, or else (in one instance) we'd end up with Ken Griffey Jr. playing third base. Instead, we'll "settle" for the #7 guy on Alex Rodriguz's list, Hall of Fame hot corner guy Eddie Mathews.

What you'll notice on the NYY roster is certainly the star power backed by almost no depth whatsover; for instance, while the comps to the nine men in the starting lineup include four current Hall of Famers (Fisk, Lazzerri, Mathews, Jackson) and three more who at least arguably should be (Trammell, Raines, Parker), the "comp" bench has one name you'll recognize, one you probably won't, and four positions vacant as the Yankees will go with players who haven't even earned a BBRef comp list as yet.

Similarly, the "Comp" rotation starts with two Hall of Fame talents who should scare any opposing manager in a short series, then follows quickly with two head-scratchers and a fifth so effective as a starter he's now in the White Sox bullpen.

As for the 2006 Yankee bullpen -- wow. Maybe the weak links in the rotation won't be such a bad thing; however, it's important to note that while there are eight legitimate candidates listed, the Yanks will probably only carry six of them, so unless (or until?) Wright or Pavano is hurt, given the lack of lefties in the rotation (with one tall exception), it's probably a ticket to Columbus or a trip on the waiver wire either for Tanyon Sturtze or 2005 top surprise, Aaron "10-0" Small.

2006 NYY LINEUP
C Jorge Posada
1B Jason Giambi
2B Robinson Cano
SS Derek Jeter
3B Alex Rodriguez
LF Hideki Matsui
CF Johnny Damon
RF Gary Sheffield
DH Bernie Williams
  BBREF COMPARABLES
C Carlton Fisk
1B Mo Vaughn
2B Tony Lazzeri
SS Alan Trammell
3B Eddie Mathews
LF Kevin Millar
CF Tim Raines
RF Reggie Jackson
DH Dave Parker
2006 NYY BENCH
C Kelly Stinnett
IF Miguel Cairo
COR Andy Phillips
OF Bubba Crosby
IF Felix Escalona
OF Melky Cabrera
  BBREF COMPARABLES
C Carl Sawatski
IF Jim Gantner
COR None
OF None
IF None
OF None
2006 NYY ROTATION
LHP Randy Johnson
RHP Mike Mussina
RHP Shawn Chacon
RHP Chien-Ming Wang
RHP Carl Pavano
  BBREF COMPARABLES
SP Roger Clemens
SP Juan Marichal
SP Bob Harris
SP Andy Replogle
SP Dustin Hermanson
2006 NYY BULLPEN
CL Mariano Rivera
RH-SET Kyle Farnsworth
LH-SET Mike Myers
RH-SET Octavio Dotel
LHP Ron Villone
RHP Tanyon Sturtze
LONG-R Aaron Small
LONG-R Jaret Wright
  BBREF COMPARABLES
CL Trevor Hoffman
RH-SET Bob Scanlan
SET Buddy Groom
SET Stan Belinda
P Rheal Cormier
P Karl Drews
LONG Jose Cabrera
LONG Scott Elarton

Keeep in mind, when we asked the Reds preview question, "So What Does This Teach Us?," the answer was "Honestly, not much. But it's fun to think about."

What isn't so fun for Yankee fans to think about is the following crucial series of numbers for their 2006 roster:

34-35-24-32-30-32-32-37-37-42-37-36

What's that, some sort of lottery string? For the Yankees, the answer is "yes," it's the numbers they're playing in 2006 Season Age Lottery for their nine regulars, top two starters and closer. So the question of the year is, can they stay healthy?

If the answer is "yes," then this team with nine possible future Hall of Famers wins 100+ games again and wins a ninth straight division crown. After that, youneverknow in a short series of short serieses, though as mentioned with Moose and Unit around, the Yankees have to like their chances.

Now, if the Yanks DON'T stay healthy -- and one of these years, the Great Pinstriped Breakdown is bound to happen -- then this team's lack of depth could spell -- gasp! -- third place.

Oh what the hell, let's split the difference. In 2006, the Yankees don't win their ninth straight AL East title, but ... Ladies and Gentlemen of Batter's Box Interactive Magazine, meet your New York Yankees ... the 2006 American league Wild Card "winners."

The door's open, Carlos. Can your team fly through?

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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Geoff - Wednesday, March 29 2006 @ 12:49 AM EST (#143649) #
If the team is healthy they can win 100+ games?? That's it?

No proclamations of everything that would have to break right for this team? All they need is their health. If every pitcher is in good health, they are expected to perform like a 100-win team.

I can't see the pitching staff banding together to win 90 games, -- without any injuries, not even a blister. Who's setting up until the indomitable Dotel is ready? Villone? How much more will those starters do this year than last, if healthy?

Surely you must be estimating that George will spend his way to a better team during the season. Take another Kevin Brown contract out there to save his team. How much has Chan Ho got left? Can he buy out the Royals and assimilate them? Are the Twins for sale?

There, I've had my venting riff on those damn Yanks. No way that Mariano compensates for the team's troubles or Gary stays happy and healthy and in the lineup. They can't do it again. They can't. Nothing can save them now.

Gitz - Wednesday, March 29 2006 @ 02:14 AM EST (#143653) #
Sheffield has been unhappy his whole life, why would 2006 be any different, and why would it affect his play now? What's going to sink the Yankees, if in fact they are to sink, is not going to be their mal-contented right fielder, it's going to be their pitching. It's terrible. I pointed out elsewhere, as did someone else, that Mussina is now a league-average pitcher, and has been for two consecutive years. Johnson is Johnson, so you never know, and Rivera is Rivera, but the rest of those guys are huge question marks.

There are going to be a lot of 10-9 games in the Bronx this year.
Ron - Wednesday, March 29 2006 @ 02:18 AM EST (#143655) #
I've been hearing for over 4 years now how this is the year the Yanks crumble. And every year they have gone out and won the division.

The Yanks ran into injuries last season, had a slow start, at one point Giambi was doing so poorly people thought he should be sent to the minors and some guy by the name of Aaron Small was in the rotation and yet they still won 95 games.

Oh yeah Tony Womack and Ruben Sierra combined for 499 AB's.

Where were all the critics/fans that said the Yanks had zero prospects above the A level? Cano and Wang stepped right in and contributed.

While the Yanks playoff steak will end eventually, it won't be this season.

I'm convinced if the Yanks and D-Rays were to swap pitching staffs, the Yanks would still win more than 81 games.

I feel sorry for all the pitchers that have to face the Yanks.

Mark this team down for around 91-98 victories and another playoff birth.
Dave Till - Wednesday, March 29 2006 @ 07:23 AM EST (#143657) #
The Yankees' problems: (a) they're getting old fast; (b) they have all the depth of a Turtle Pool. Their starting lineup features some scary-good bats, their top-two starters are world-class pitchers, and Mariano Rivera is still Mariano Rivera. Winning big is a real possibility.

But older players have a tendency to suffer more aches and pains than youngsters. If any of the front-line talent goes down, there is no one on the bench who can step up and help out. And, once you get past Rivera, the rest of the bullpen is icky: for example, Tanyon Sturtze is being counted on to be an important contributor.

The Yankees looked entirely ordinary for the first part of last season, before Jason Giambi's bat woke up and a couple of starting pitchers went on hot streaks. Old teams can drop fast: think of the recent experiences of the Seattle Mariners, for example.

So I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that the Yankees will finish third this year. The AL East standings will be:

Boston
Toronto
New York
Tampa Bay
...
...
...
Baltimore

(The Orioles are going to be awful, Mazzone or no Mazzone.)

kinguy - Wednesday, March 29 2006 @ 08:30 AM EST (#143659) #
Not that he'll be the difference between a sub-90 win season and sporting World Series rings, but isn't Kyle Farnsworth going to be setting up for Rivera?
3RunHomer - Wednesday, March 29 2006 @ 08:54 AM EST (#143661) #

Nothing can save them now.

That's the spirit! They can't pull a Wang out of their ... hat again this year. (Pulling out Wangs is indecent anyway.)

Got to love AL East previews -- the pure hatred in the comments is just excellent. (Dave, have you talked to anyone about your feelings for the Os?)

TexMex - Wednesday, March 29 2006 @ 09:51 AM EST (#143667) #
The Yanks will win the division but it'll be hard fought,
but when they go down it want be for long, has anybody taken
note that eventhough their payroll is still the highest in
in baseball it has been creeping downwards over the last
four years. The money is going somewhere, and that's for
future prospects on the farm

Yanks
Boston (Phew!! Coco)
Toronto
Tampa (didn't they sweep the Yanks last year????)
Baltimore (Flying further south)
Mike Green - Wednesday, March 29 2006 @ 09:54 AM EST (#143668) #
Lazzeri as Cano's comp. Cool. That'll provide pleasant dreams for Yankee fans.

Chacon has been a decent pitcher over his career. With this offence behind you, that means a 15-16 game winner. There is no reason to expect that he'll have an ERA of 2.85 or anything like that, but he doesn't need to in order to be a useful part for the Yankees. MGL says that the Yankee pitching could be very good; Gitz says that it could be terrible. I'll split the difference, and say that it will be totally average.

The key to the Yankee season, as usual, will be the health of Mariano Rivera's arm. If he's healthy, the Yanks have enough talent to make another trip to the post-season. 94 wins, first place.

Mylegacy - Wednesday, March 29 2006 @ 12:54 PM EST (#143677) #
A 42-year-old ACE. That's the starters. Period. NO WAY this team has the pitching to contend.

Now the BAD NEWS, the offense is SO GOOD the sob's JUST MIGHT make it. Sheit!

Now the REAL BAD NEWS, since their payroll is only 200 zillion this year come July they go out and get Zito and nine other starters. Encore sheit!

They could win the WS or finish third in their division.

I predict (modest drum roll, after all I am Canadian) the Spankies finish THIRD! The oracle has spoken, place your bets, keep your ammunition dry, praise the Lord and hope the river don't rise!

AND, don't no-body, no-how, no-way, give Steinbrenner my home address...I hear he has friends in the Green Berets.
Mick Doherty - Wednesday, March 29 2006 @ 12:57 PM EST (#143678) #
I couldn't find a way to legitimately work this into the preview, but thought many of you might find it amusing (click on the image to buy a t-shirt, if you want):

Mike D - Wednesday, March 29 2006 @ 02:08 PM EST (#143690) #
Mick, there is no way Ron Villone is comparable with himself. He and himself are two very different pitchers, pitching under very different circumstances. Cano and Lazzeri might be a reach, but Villone and Villone?

Way out there, dude.
Mick Doherty - Wednesday, March 29 2006 @ 02:37 PM EST (#143694) #
Good catch, Mike. It was, as you might imagine, a cut and paste error -- Cormier was supposed to go with Villone, while Sturtze matches with somebody named Karl Drews.

I have updated the all-comps roster to reflect these changes.
Mike Green - Wednesday, March 29 2006 @ 02:46 PM EST (#143695) #
By the way, here are the top 10 bbref comps for Johnny Damon. Willie Davis is actually a far superior comp to Raines. It looks like the system does not adjust appropriately for the era and park. Davis' numbers were very comparable to Damon's. Raines, of course, was much better than both of them.
Mick Doherty - Wednesday, March 29 2006 @ 03:08 PM EST (#143696) #
Willie "3-Dog" Davis! Ah, with three Gold Gloves, two World Series rings and two times leading the league in triples, I think the Yankees would take that from Damon. Davis ended his career with 182 homers and 398 steals; Damon has 130 and 281. I think the Boss is expecting more from the ex-Royal-Athletic-Red Sock.
Mike Green - Wednesday, March 29 2006 @ 03:58 PM EST (#143699) #
Davis had 3 pretty good years left at ages 32, 33 and 34, so it wouldn't be too bad. Some of the others really crashed and burned in their early 30s.
Mick Doherty - Wednesday, March 29 2006 @ 04:02 PM EST (#143700) #
I guess the question is, does he take after Rose, Brock and Raines or is he Claudell Washington and Jose Cardenal?

He hasn't suggested the HOF-quality path of the first three in his career yet, though if he lasts as long as Rose did, he'll be a first-ballot guy around 2027.
Mike Green - Wednesday, March 29 2006 @ 04:12 PM EST (#143702) #
I like Damon's chances of being at least good for a few years. His career path has been a nice steady build, and his 18-1 SB/CS from last year suggests a developing maturity/baseball intelligence. If he can use that quality to control the strike zone a little better, a la Brett Butler, that would be the ticket.
Mike D - Wednesday, March 29 2006 @ 04:36 PM EST (#143708) #
Good work, Mick. I agree with you about the bullpen -- I don't think Brian Cashman's been given enough credit for turning a weak middle/short relief corps and turning into a potentially strong one.
Mick Doherty - Thursday, March 30 2006 @ 10:57 AM EST (#143745) #
Thanks for the catch, kinguy. I have added Farnsworth into the bullpen, which now has EIGHT legitimate candidates for six or possibly seven spots.
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