The draft is on June 6th and 7th. The Jays select 14th and it looks like it'll be another first round pitcher.
Here's a list of Baseball America's top 20 from about a month ago. Twelve of that top 20 are made of college pitchers, 4 college hitters, 3 high school pitchers, and one high school hitter. So as you can probably deduct the top of the draft will likely be full of college players. The Jays are probably the most college oriented team in baseball right now and Tony LaCava stated in a Batter's Box interview that the Jays wouldn't be likely to select high school pitchers so don't expect that to change this year.
As you're probably aware the Jays lost two draft picks this year because of signing AJ Burnett and BJ Ryan. Because of that they'll pick 14th in the frst round and then wait until the 4th round to pick again. The good part about the baseball draft (if you're following live) is that a pick is made just about every minute so it'll be about 90 minutes between the first and second Jays pick (#120).
Starting Pitchers (stats through games of 5/14):
Andrew Miller, LHP, North Carolina, 6'6", 210
Brad Lincoln, RHP, Houston, 6'0", 200
Tim Lincecum, RHP, Washington, 6'0", 185
Luke Hochevar, RHP, Tennessee
Brandon Morrow, RHP, Cal, 6'3", 185
These are likely the top 5 pitchers in the draft, and the Jays won't likely get a shot at any of them. As mentioned, Miller is considered the best of the bunch.
Lincoln and Lincecum are similar - both having great years with big strikeout numbers and both are on the shorter side. There's some thought that Lincecum is better suited as a reliever.
You might remember Luke Hochevar from last year's draft. Going into that draft he, Ricky Romero and Mike Pelfrey were considered the top 3 pitchers. Hochevar lasted until the sandwich round (due to his bonus demands) where the Dodgers selected him, but he never officially signed with the team. He's pitching with an independent team at the moment and barring an upset will be drafted again. Coincidentally, Hochevar is on the same team as Matt Harrington who turned down several million many years ago, went back into the draft and turned down about a million, and then never got serious offer again.
Brandon Morrow is the high riser in the group. He went from an erratic reliever to a top flight starter. These type of players make me nervous.
After the top 5 pitchers you run into several pitchers that have some sort of question surrounding them.
Joba Chamberlain, RHP, Nebraska, 6'3", 225
Max Scherzer, RHP, Missouri, 6'2", 198
Ian Kennedy, RHP, USC, 6'1", 195
Chamerlain had a problem with tricep tendonitis early this year so he hasn't pitched as much as other pitchers. However, when he has been out there he's been flashing a high K rate. He also has a cool name and a built-in nickname.
Scherzer has also had problems with tendonitis this year. If he overcomes that in the next month he'll shoot up into that first group, unless the Boras factor comes into play.
Ian Kennedy is a personal favorite of mine. Also, a Boras client, Kennedy dominated at USC as a freshman and sophmore and had a lot of success with team USA in the offseasons. He reportedly has lost some velocity this year, and it shows up in his stat line. His 'stuff' isn't highly regarded, but his competitiveness is. He could go in the top 10 or the end of the first round.
After that you get many similar pitchers who look alike:
Daniel Bard, RHP, North Carolina, 6'4", 202
Wade LeBlanc, LHP, Alabama, 6'3", 193
Brett Sinkbeil, RHP, Missouri St, 6'4", 185
Dallas Buck, RHP, Oregon St, 6'3", 210
David Huff, LHP, UCLA 6'2" 210
Justin Masterson, RHP, San Diego St, 6'6", 245
Kyle McCoulloch, RHP, Texas, 6'3", 178
Greg Reynolds, RHP, Stanford, 6'7", 225
Relievers:
There's several pitchers that currently relieving that could be a consideration in the first round. I'm not sure if any of these pitchers would be considered as starters.
Mark Melancon, RHP, Arizona, 6'2" 210
Chris Perez, RHP, Miami, 6'4", 225
Blair Erickson, RHP, UC Irvine, 6'1", 210
Pitchers that pitched for team USA this past summer, which generally would be the better players, include: Kennedy, Scherzer, McCulloch, Melancon, and Perez.
As we've seen in past years the Jays have selected a lot of players that have played in the Cape Cod list. At least Miller, Lincoln, Lincecum, Bard, LeBlanc, Sinkbeil, Buck and Huff pitched in the Cape League last summer, all with a lot of success.
Hitters:
Evan Longoria, 3B, Long Beach St, 6'2", 185
Drew Stubbs, OF, Texas, 6'4", 190
Matt LaPorta, 1B, Florida, 6'0", 210
Wes Hodges, 3B, Georgia Tech, 6'2", 185
Matt Antonelli, 3B, Wake Forest, 6'0", 185
Chad Tracy, C, Pepperdine, 6'3", 175
The college hitting class is considered extremely weak. Longoria is considered the best hitter of the bunch, but is more of a 'solid guy' to quote BA.
Stubbs is a defensive whiz and I believe I read somewhere that he'd be gold glove caliber player right now. The question with him is hitting - those K rates are on the high side.
The power in the draft belongs to Matt LaPorta. He had an oblique strain earlier in the year, but is starting to play more now. As with Stubbs his K rate is too high for my liking (for what it's worth, Chip Cannon had a 16% K rate in his final college year and is at 30% in AA). He's also a Boras client.
Hodges and Antonelli are the next hitters and while Hodges is rated better I'm a bit intrigued by Antonelli ability to make contact. Sickels wrote that Hodges would generally be a 3rd round pick in a normal draft.
Chady Tracy is Jim Tracy's son. He's big for a catcher and it's possible that he'll be moved to a different position.
Draft outlook:
Given the weak nature of the draft it's still very unclear how things will play out and it wouldn't shock me to see a few players not listed here go in the top 15.
There doesn't appear to be more than 3 HS players selected prior to the Jays pick at #14. For position players it sounds like Longoria, Stubbs and LaPorta will be selected prior to the Jays picking, and barring players dropping for 'signability' the top 7-8 position players should also be off the board.
That leaves the Jays with a starting pitcher, perhaps one of Kennedy, Bard, LeBlanc, or Sinkbeil.
As the draft approaches I'll take a look at some players the Jays might be interested in when they start selecting again in round 4.
Here's a list of Baseball America's top 20 from about a month ago. Twelve of that top 20 are made of college pitchers, 4 college hitters, 3 high school pitchers, and one high school hitter. So as you can probably deduct the top of the draft will likely be full of college players. The Jays are probably the most college oriented team in baseball right now and Tony LaCava stated in a Batter's Box interview that the Jays wouldn't be likely to select high school pitchers so don't expect that to change this year.
As you're probably aware the Jays lost two draft picks this year because of signing AJ Burnett and BJ Ryan. Because of that they'll pick 14th in the frst round and then wait until the 4th round to pick again. The good part about the baseball draft (if you're following live) is that a pick is made just about every minute so it'll be about 90 minutes between the first and second Jays pick (#120).
Starting Pitchers (stats through games of 5/14):
Andrew Miller, LHP, North Carolina, 6'6", 210
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 81.2 | 1.87 | 9.6 | 2.5 | 0.1 | 7.2 |
| 2005 | 96.2 | 2.98 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 0.4 | 7.3 |
| 2004 | 89.0 | 2.93 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 6.5 |
Brad Lincoln, RHP, Houston, 6'0", 200
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 113 | 1.67 | 11.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 6.4 |
| 2005 | 102.0 | 4.76 | 9.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 10.9 |
| 2004 | 56.2 | 4.29 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 9.6 |
Tim Lincecum, RHP, Washington, 6'0", 185
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 109.1 | 2.06 | 14.4 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 5.2 |
| 2005 | 104.1 | 3.11 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 0.3 | 5.4 |
| 2004 | 112.1 | 3.53 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 0.4 | 6.7 |
Luke Hochevar, RHP, Tennessee
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2005 | 139.2 | 2.26 | 10.0 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 6.7 |
| 2004 | 63.0 | 2.86 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 7.4 |
| 2003 | 77.2 | 4.64 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 10.1 |
Brandon Morrow, RHP, Cal, 6'3", 185
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 93.1 | 1.74 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 6.3 |
| 2005 | 25.0 | 9.36 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 1.1 | 11.5 |
| 2004 | 29.2 | 6.07 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 0.9 | 10.8 |
These are likely the top 5 pitchers in the draft, and the Jays won't likely get a shot at any of them. As mentioned, Miller is considered the best of the bunch.
Lincoln and Lincecum are similar - both having great years with big strikeout numbers and both are on the shorter side. There's some thought that Lincecum is better suited as a reliever.
You might remember Luke Hochevar from last year's draft. Going into that draft he, Ricky Romero and Mike Pelfrey were considered the top 3 pitchers. Hochevar lasted until the sandwich round (due to his bonus demands) where the Dodgers selected him, but he never officially signed with the team. He's pitching with an independent team at the moment and barring an upset will be drafted again. Coincidentally, Hochevar is on the same team as Matt Harrington who turned down several million many years ago, went back into the draft and turned down about a million, and then never got serious offer again.
Brandon Morrow is the high riser in the group. He went from an erratic reliever to a top flight starter. These type of players make me nervous.
After the top 5 pitchers you run into several pitchers that have some sort of question surrounding them.
Joba Chamberlain, RHP, Nebraska, 6'3", 225
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 69.2 | 3.75 | 10.8 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 7.8 |
| 2005 | 118.2 | 2.81 | 9.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 6.9 |
Max Scherzer, RHP, Missouri, 6'2", 198
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 52.2 | 2.22 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 6.4 |
| 2005 | 106.1 | 1.86 | 11.1 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 5.0 |
Ian Kennedy, RHP, USC, 6'1", 195
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 88 | 3.48 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 8.6 |
| 2005 | 117.0 | 2.54 | 12.2 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 6.5 |
| 2004 | 92.2 | 2.91 | 11.7 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 8.4 |
Chamerlain had a problem with tricep tendonitis early this year so he hasn't pitched as much as other pitchers. However, when he has been out there he's been flashing a high K rate. He also has a cool name and a built-in nickname.
Scherzer has also had problems with tendonitis this year. If he overcomes that in the next month he'll shoot up into that first group, unless the Boras factor comes into play.
Ian Kennedy is a personal favorite of mine. Also, a Boras client, Kennedy dominated at USC as a freshman and sophmore and had a lot of success with team USA in the offseasons. He reportedly has lost some velocity this year, and it shows up in his stat line. His 'stuff' isn't highly regarded, but his competitiveness is. He could go in the top 10 or the end of the first round.
After that you get many similar pitchers who look alike:
Daniel Bard, RHP, North Carolina, 6'4", 202
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 72 | 3.75 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 7.3 |
| 2005 | 89.2 | 4.22 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 7.4 |
| 2004 | 95.0 | 3.88 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 8.9 |
Wade LeBlanc, LHP, Alabama, 6'3", 193
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 102 | 3.00 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 6.4 |
| 2005 | 88.0 | 4.09 | 11.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 7.9 |
| 2004 | 112.2 | 2.08 | 7.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 7.0 |
Brett Sinkbeil, RHP, Missouri St, 6'4", 185
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 59.2 | 2.26 | 9.6 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 6.1 |
| 2005 | 87.1 | 4.84 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 9.8 |
| 2004 | 84.0 | 3.11 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 7.1 |
Dallas Buck, RHP, Oregon St, 6'3", 210
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 85.2 | 3.15 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 0.4 | 6.7 |
| 2005 | 129.0 | 2.09 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 0.2 | 6.3 |
| 2004 | 69.1 | 5.06 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 9.5 |
David Huff, LHP, UCLA 6'2" 210
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 107.1 | 2.77 | 7.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 8.3 |
| 2004 | 42.0 | 3.00 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 10.9 |
Justin Masterson, RHP, San Diego St, 6'6", 245
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 111 | 4.54 | 8.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 9.3 |
Kyle McCoulloch, RHP, Texas, 6'3", 178
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 93.2 | 2.98 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 8.7 |
| 2005 | 138.2 | 2.92 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 8.9 |
| 2004 | 52.2 | 3.25 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 8.3 |
Greg Reynolds, RHP, Stanford, 6'7", 225
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 96.2 | 3.17 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 8.0 |
| 2005 | 51.1 | 5.08 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 9.0 |
| 2004 | 27.0 | 6.00 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 10.0 |
Relievers:
There's several pitchers that currently relieving that could be a consideration in the first round. I'm not sure if any of these pitchers would be considered as starters.
Mark Melancon, RHP, Arizona, 6'2" 210
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 39.1 | 2.97 | 12.0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 7.8 |
| 2005 | 66.1 | 2.58 | 9.4 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 7.1 |
| 2004 | 62.1 | 4.33 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 8.0 |
Chris Perez, RHP, Miami, 6'4", 225
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 40 | 1.58 | 11.0 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 5.4 |
| 2005 | 45.2 | 2.56 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 0.4 | 6.8 |
Blair Erickson, RHP, UC Irvine, 6'1", 210
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 45.2 | 2.17 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 0.2 | 6.6 |
| 2005 | 35.0 | 1.80 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 0.3 | 4.1 |
| 2004 | 37.1 | 4.10 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 8.0 |
Pitchers that pitched for team USA this past summer, which generally would be the better players, include: Kennedy, Scherzer, McCulloch, Melancon, and Perez.
As we've seen in past years the Jays have selected a lot of players that have played in the Cape Cod list. At least Miller, Lincoln, Lincecum, Bard, LeBlanc, Sinkbeil, Buck and Huff pitched in the Cape League last summer, all with a lot of success.
Hitters:
Evan Longoria, 3B, Long Beach St, 6'2", 185
| Year | ABs | Ave | OBP | SLG | K/BB | K% |
| 2006 | 173 | 0.364 | 0.491 | 0.613 | 0.7 | 11.9% |
| 2005 | 228 | 0.320 | 0.368 | 0.421 | 2.9 | 16.7% |
Drew Stubbs, OF, Texas, 6'4", 190
| Year | ABs | Ave | OBP | SLG | K/BB | K% |
| 2006 | 205 | 0.337 | 0.436 | 0.595 | 1.5 | 21.5% |
| 2005 | 283 | 0.311 | 0.384 | 0.527 | 2.2 | 22.3% |
| 2004 | 266 | 0.301 | 0.372 | 0.474 | 2.7 | 25.2% |
Matt LaPorta, 1B, Florida, 6'0", 210
| Year | ABs | Ave | OBP | SLG | K/BB | K% |
| 2006 | 146 | 0.247 | 0.400 | 0.541 | 1.3 | 17.9% |
| 2005 | 265 | 0.328 | 0.438 | 0.698 | 1.5 | 20.2% |
| 2004 | 130 | 0.285 | 0.371 | 0.646 | 3.0 | 26.2% |
Wes Hodges, 3B, Georgia Tech, 6'2", 185
| Year | ABs | Ave | OBP | SLG | K/BB | K% |
| 2006 | 182 | 0.346 | 0.433 | 0.593 | 1.5 | 18.8% |
| 2005 | 267 | 0.397 | 0.466 | 0.566 | 1.3 | 11.6% |
| 2004 | 184 | 0.304 | 0.387 | 0.467 | 1.3 | 11.9% |
Matt Antonelli, 3B, Wake Forest, 6'0", 185
| Year | ABs | Ave | OBP | SLG | K/BB | K% |
| 2006 | 195 | 0.338 | 0.451 | 0.615 | 0.6 | 9.7% |
| 2005 | 232 | 0.332 | 0.475 | 0.509 | 0.7 | 12.8% |
| 2004 | 203 | 0.305 | 0.412 | 0.369 | 0.6 | 7.9% |
Chad Tracy, C, Pepperdine, 6'3", 175
| Year | ABs | Ave | OBP | SLG | K/BB | K% |
| 2006 | 217 | 0.327 | 0.393 | 0.516 | 1.3 | 9.1% |
| 2005 | 256 | 0.367 | 0.428 | 0.609 | 1.1 | 10.5% |
| 2004 | 241 | 0.320 | 0.353 | 0.539 | 4.0 | 15.7% |
The college hitting class is considered extremely weak. Longoria is considered the best hitter of the bunch, but is more of a 'solid guy' to quote BA.
Stubbs is a defensive whiz and I believe I read somewhere that he'd be gold glove caliber player right now. The question with him is hitting - those K rates are on the high side.
The power in the draft belongs to Matt LaPorta. He had an oblique strain earlier in the year, but is starting to play more now. As with Stubbs his K rate is too high for my liking (for what it's worth, Chip Cannon had a 16% K rate in his final college year and is at 30% in AA). He's also a Boras client.
Hodges and Antonelli are the next hitters and while Hodges is rated better I'm a bit intrigued by Antonelli ability to make contact. Sickels wrote that Hodges would generally be a 3rd round pick in a normal draft.
Chady Tracy is Jim Tracy's son. He's big for a catcher and it's possible that he'll be moved to a different position.
Draft outlook:
Given the weak nature of the draft it's still very unclear how things will play out and it wouldn't shock me to see a few players not listed here go in the top 15.
There doesn't appear to be more than 3 HS players selected prior to the Jays pick at #14. For position players it sounds like Longoria, Stubbs and LaPorta will be selected prior to the Jays picking, and barring players dropping for 'signability' the top 7-8 position players should also be off the board.
That leaves the Jays with a starting pitcher, perhaps one of Kennedy, Bard, LeBlanc, or Sinkbeil.
As the draft approaches I'll take a look at some players the Jays might be interested in when they start selecting again in round 4.
A: