Apparently, Cuban 2B Hector Olivera has been impressive in his showcases - I know the Jays have only about 6M left in the 2015 budget, but if they could dump Navarro's 5M for a prospect, then maybe they can make an aggressive bid for Olivera - I'd prefer this than spending the money on a BP arm.

Checking MLB Trade Rumors there hasn't been any mention of the Jays in regards to Hector Olivera which does seem odd given the Jays issues at 2B and the expected price being somewhat reasonable (under $35 mil total).  He is 29 and seems like a decent option but hard to say how good of one.  He has been working out at 2B & 3B it seems.

Yoan Moncada is the big fish from Cuba, but at 19 is a big wild card and counts against international spending limits thus a $30 mil bonus means a $60 mil cost.  The big question with him is if he is cleared before June 15th - before that the Yankees can bid, after that they cannot (the Yankees went overbudget this year thus no bonus over $300k in 2015 or 16).  The Jays are planning on shooting over this year (to get the son of Vlad) so if Moncada is delayed that could make the Jays players for him although I doubt they would go for it.

The 29th Pick is a decent pick, although it's harder to find another diamond like Hoffman or Pentecost here. The #56 is a good pick, Sean Reid-Foley was an absolute steal at 49 so finding another nugget of gold here is possible. Sometimes I think you just have to get lucky.

It'll be interesting to see what unfolds for the Jays at this years draft. Gut feeling, they take a 2nd round talent with pick 29, sign for less than slot and look for hard to sign players in the next subsequent rounds.

That or they will blow their drafting budget on the International Signing day and not sign anyone with their 1st pick, allocating it for next season. Because signing Vlad Jr is essentially a top 10 pick moving forward. Did anyone see the youtube clips? Oh boy...that power! We do not have anyone currently in our system with that swing and power!

The 2008 edition of the Baseball Prospectus rankings lists Travis Snider at #7 and Colby Rasmus at #8. Joey Votto is #21 and Andrew McCutchen is #24. The moral, if there is one, is that forecasting prospects is hard, if not impossible.

By the way, Snider was the only Blue Jay prospect in the top 100 in 2008. In 2009, Snider, Arencibia, and David Cooper were on the list. AA didn't inherit much, did he?

That or they will blow their drafting budget on the International Signing day and not sign anyone with their 1st pick, allocating it for next season.

The loss of the Jays' original first-rounder really shrinks the slot bonus pool allocation even with the compensation pick for Melky. As the intro states, they have the seventh smallest pool at $5.63 mil.

I don't see a scenario where they punt this year's first round pick. If they do that, they basically don't have enough money to draft anyone this year, as you punt that slot bonus a year too and can't assign savings to lower picks.

This years draft will be a new challenge for AA.  Limited cash due to slotting so he has to figure out how to maximize talent with very limited cash.  I'm suspecting if someone drops down the Jays will chase him with #29 (say, a top 15 talent) and go for easy signs for picks #2-10 in order to afford him.  If they cannot sign him then with picks #11 and beyond they will grab a few 'faint hope' guys like they did in past years and try to use the extra cash from picks #2-10 to sign one or two of them (guys who most think will go to college but one or two might decide to go pro because they really, really want to and figure cash today is better than cash tomorrow in the end).  Risky, but worthwhile as those punted picks generated Graveman in the past (a cheap sign) and other punted picks allowed them to sign Rowdy Tellez among others.

Last year with pick #49 they got a top 20 talent (BA rank) in Sean Reid-Foley.
2013 saw Rowdy Tellez with pick #895 ranked #59, Jake Brentz pick #325 ranked #80 (saved money signing Graveman...funny eh?)
2012 saw Anthony Alford (listed by most as a 0% chance of signing) signed, with other way over cap being Matt Smoral, Mitch Nay, Chase DeJong, and Ryan Borucki
2011 was the last pre-cap year and the Jays didn't sign Beede (sigh) but used the free pick to get Stroman the next year (yay!).  also went high to sign Norris. Pillar was a 32nd round pick
2010 was AA's first draft, getting Sanchez, Syndergaard, Pompey (16th round), plus 2 others who reached (Nolin & Dyson).

So I'd say AA has done OK... 2010 just has 1.2 WAR so far but expect that to climb with Sanchez/Pompey/Syndergaard all likely to contribute (sadly Syndergaard will help the Mets).  2011 so far isn't good (just 0.4 WAR from 3 players) but Norris & Pillar should make that a very good draft in the long run.  2012 has seen only Stroman reach but what a nice one to reach and Alford should make things interesting this summer.  2013 has only seen Graveman reach so far and far too soon to say anything about 2014.

AA has done very well later in the draft.  Lets hope he can pull off a few good signing again.

AA has done very well later in the draft. Lets hope he can pull off a few good signing again.

It's funny John how you and I can look at your list of over-slot signings with AA's punting rounds 4-10 strategy and have such different reactions.

I'm okay with AA's drafting overall. I'm not a big prospect guy and am too lazy too look anything up.

But I look at that list and think, we are holding up guys like Tellez and Alford as examples of a successful drafting strategy? Meh.

Daniel Norris could be a coup. But if I remember correctly, Norris was highly touted but plunged for some reason to Day 2 of the draft. Can't remember why, maybe signability.

I wouldn't build a strategy around trying to find guys available late like Norris.

I think our intl signings like Barreto & Labourt, H Alvarez are also an area that I give AA good marks.

Looking back on the 2010 draft, one name stuck out: Eric Arce.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=arce--001eri

He set the GLF record for homers in his first year, when he was age appropriate. Next year moves up to Bluefield and has an .864 OPS in 46 games (not sure why he missed the others, but I guess injury).

The next year he's back in Bluefield, and plays 13 games with a .953 OPS, then next thing you know he's in the independent Frontier League.

I read about his pre-draft troubles, which amounted to his making out (whilst naked) with his 14 year old girlfriend when he was 18. Poor decision and evidence of slight stupidity? Yes. But not exactly what you think of when you hear the word "sex offender".

Anyways, just curious if anyone has anything to add on why he was let go.

I think a lot of people don't know just how few prospects make it each year.  Easy to get caught up in it, but you shouldn't expect much.  Stats are via the Lahman database and some rough estimates I set up

Players born in the 60's (none are still playing..sniff sniff...no one older than me in the majors anymore)... played as a hitter in over 1000 games=202 players, played 500+=365, played 100+=577, played 1+=885 players.  Note - this would not include guys like Jimmy Key who were used as pinch runners or once in a blue moon in the field.

To be a star I'd expect a player to get into 500+ games at least, outside of starting pitchers.  Only 365 made that standard who were born in the 60's - or roughly 37 per year which would equal fewer than 2 per team per year (26-30 teams during their careers) in fact barely over 1 per club per year.

For pitchers lets go by IP.... 1000+ IP: 121, 500+ IP: 263, 100+ IP: 502, got one guy out at least: 899.  So if you go by a 500 IP standard (easy for starters, needs to last as a reliever) you get 263 guys or 26 per year or roughly 1 per club (a bit less).

Bottom line?  An average system should produce one solid hitter and one solid pitcher each year.  That is a LOT less than most expect.  Cut down to 100 IP and you could up it to 2 pitchers and 1 hitter (1 starter, 1 reliever, 1 hitter) but that is a pretty weak standard.

Looking at the Jays for AA's time frame...
2010: 4 have reached, Sanchez looks to be the starter, Pompey the hitter.  But there is also Nolin (likely a 100 IP guy in the majors but not a 500+), Syndergaard (could be a star), Justin Nicolino (top 100 prospect still, sub 3 ERA in AA last year at age 22), and others.
2011: 3 have reached, Pillar the hitter, Norris the starter, DeSclafani wasn't impressive in the majors but is a prospect, Tyler Beede was drafted but not signed and looks like he could be very good, and others are there too.
2012: 1 has reached, Stroman is the pitcher (obviously), but no hitter has emerged yet (some love Anthony Alford).  Smoral has a killer arm but wild, others are interesting but none has wowed anyone I think.
2013: 1 has reached, Graveman is likely a 100 IP guy, Matt Boyd could be up this year if he gets over his AA BABIP issues, Rowdy Tellez looks like a keeper as a hitter but who knows long term.
2014: none reached, anything we say now is just pure guesswork.

So no years are 'wow' at this point.  To be a 'wow' we'd need at least 3 guys who are serious contributors. 

For comparison most feel the Ash years (early on) had great drafts.
1995: 6 reached, Halladay the superstar, Ted Lilly unsigned late pick, Ryan Freel & Craig Wilson had 500+ game ML careers (not here), 2 others who reached were unsigned by the Jays
1996: 8 reached, Hudson the best but wasn't signed that year, Casey Blake the only one signed who played 500+ (again, not here), Billy Koch was the reliever, Josh Phelps the best of the rest (sub 500 games, but one woohoo year and lot of 'dang it')
1997: 8 reached, Orlando Hudson (signed this time), Vernon Wells,Michael Young all 1000+ gamers thus a beautiful draft while Mark Hendrickson was the starter (over 1000 ML innings).  Unsigned were Chad Qualls (solid guy), Brad Hawpe (over 900 ML games), and a couple others who didn't sign here.  Seeing a theme here...
1998: Felipe Lopez over 1000 games, Jay Gibbons  over 800, Bob File  was a decent reliever briefly, and 2 others made the majors
1999: Alex Rios, Reed Johnson, Brandon Lyon made this a very successful draft.  Matt Ford the bonus 'cup of coffee' guy.
2000: Dustin McGowan, Vinnie Chulk, and 3 guys who can say they reached.
2001: Gabe Gross  got 500 games in, Brandon League had a good career, and 5 others see their name in baseball encyclopedias.

So there is an excellent drafting record for you.  Lousy trading record, but great draft years.  I see 4 excellent years (95/97/98/99), and 3 OK years (pretty much average).  Geez did Ash waste what he had eh?

When you no longer have unlimited dollars to sign prospects, you must get creative to sign as many as you need.

In 2014, Toronto punted rounds 7-10 and didn't sign round 7 as he followed his heart.
Justin Shafer (RHP, JR) was an 8th round signing ($125 K) - early struggles but decent year.
Ryan Metzler (2B, JR) was a 9th round signing ($10 K) - struggled first year.
Jordan Romano (RHP, CDN., JR) was a 10th round signing ($25 K) - successful first year.

In 2013, Toronto punted rounds 6, 8-10 drafting HS pick round 7.
Matt Boyd (LHP, SR) was a 6th round signing ($75 K) - in AA, basically successful.
Kendall Graveman (RHP, SR) was an 8th round signing ($5 K) - very successful, MLB in 2014, vital piece in trade for a Star.
Chad Girodo (LHP, SR) was a 9th round signing ($5 K) - in A+, successful.
Garrett Custons (C, SR, US Air Force) was a 10th round courtesy signing ($1 K) - Good Luck.

In 2012, Toronto punted rounds 4-10, in a windfall draft, after drafting 7 players in the first three rounds.
Tucker Donahue (RHP, SR) was a 4th round signing ($5 K) - indifferent signing, missing all of 2014.
Brad Delatte (LHP, SR) was a 5th round signing ($5 K) - unsuccessful signing, pitching 0.1 innings in 2012 and missing since.
Eric Phillips (3B, SR) was a 6th round signing ($5 K) - unsuccessful signing, with 8 games 25 plate appearances in 2012 and missing since.
Ian Parmley (OF, SR) was a 7th round signing ($5 K) - decent signing, he fills a need.
Harrison Frawley (C, 5S) was an 8th round signing ($5 K) - not a success, 26 games, 94 plate appearances in 2012 and missing since.
Jordan Leyland (1B, SR) was a 9th round signing ($5 K) - decent signing, he fills a need.
Alex Azor (CF, SR, US Navy) was a courtesy signing for the 10 round ($1 K) - Good Luck.

In 2014, AA said they were changing how they were drafting, basically signing everyone they wanted to, thereby gaining massive talent with their first three picks, and very good talent with their other picks.

In 2013, A.A. was without extra draft picks for the first time and couldn't sign their first round pick,Phil Bickford (who is trying to enter the 2015 Draft, JR Col. in 2014). They did sign very good talent with the balance of the picks and with the excess monies saved were able to sign two players, Jacob Brentz and Rowdy Tellez they really wanted, both top 100 talent.

In 2012, it was the last draft in the new CBA with extra picks (type A and B) and basically a windfall for A.A. who was just starting to figure it out. He didn't realize there still a lot of talent available as a punted pick (underpaid) until 2013 and 2014.

Since A.A. has been a GM, the 2010 Draft will always be his signature piece. With 9 picks before the 4th round, it will always be his legacy. Three Players (Aaron Sanchez #34, Sean Nolin #126, Dalton Pompey #486) reached the Majors, thus far for Toronto, and five were of significant value in trades, making this a very successful draft. Making the Majors, being part of a Trade, or Just being someone who interests others makes a player a successful pick.

I think the big key is getting the best 3-5 players you possibly can out of the draft and all other slots are filler/slot savings.  For filler you try to find the Graveman among the rough but odds are you won't find many gems in that pile.

Checking the other good years (pre-Ash, post horrid 80's draft record)...
1994: 8 reached, Chris Woodward cracked 500 games, Gary Glover got 500+ IP (just 1 IP as a Jay) Tom Davey  got 100+ ML innings (lost in minor league draft).
1993: 6 reached, Chris Carpenter is the star, Adam Melhuse played 311 games (0 for the Jays), Mike Johnson  got a couple hundred innings in (negative WAR)
1992: 7 reached, Shannon Stewart  the star, Doug Mientkiewicz drafted but not signed, Jeff DaVanon another 500+ gamer not signed, Tim Crabtree the only pitcher to make it,
1991: 12 reached, Shawn Green & Alex Gonzalez fit 'star' level, with Chris Stynes also cracking 500 games. Ryan Franklin drafted not signed, Ben Weber  over 200 IP, Jose Silva over 400 IP, Carlton Loewer over 100 IP but not signed
1990: 10 reached, Steve Karsay  the star of this group, no one else really impressed though (0.5 WAR the best, not a lot of playing time for any)
1989: 8 reached, 2 near HOF'ers in John Olerud & Jeff Kent, Jeffrey Hammonds drafted not signed, Aaron Small had a career as a pitcher
1988: 12 reached, Woody Williams the best (30+ WAR), Scott Erickson drafted not signed, David Weathers an excellent pick, Ed Sprague was a good pick, Tim Pugh drafted not signed (pitcher), Mike Matheny drafted not signed
1987: 13 made it, Mike Timlin the best, Derek Bell a solid hitter, Darren Lewis drafted not signed, Orlando Palmeiro drafted not signed, Bob Macdonald was a decent reliever briefly,
1986: 11 made it, Pat Hentgen the best, Xavier Hernandez a solid pitcher, Cris Carpenter had a career, as did Willie Blair & Darren Hall.  No hitter got 500 games
1985 and earlier lots of issues in round 1 which hurts these drafts. best players often unsigned (Jim Abbott for example).

Clearly the Jays had a heck of a draft record going back.  I recall them having a guy known as a great talent evaluator and you look at who they signed, and who they drafted but didn't sign and the talent is a 'wow' quite often.  Remember, getting 2 regulars (pitchers and/or hitters) is average and that was with a weak standard (500 games as a hitter, 500 IP as a pitcher).  1989 was a real big wow year as Carlos Delgado played his first games that year (signed the year before but probably late in the year).  The more I look at this the more sad the Ash years look - such potential wasted.

Concerning Eric Arce. I think he dropped quite a bit in his draft year due to the incident. He chose to go to Florida State instead of signing with the Jays but quit the team after only 10 AB which made him eligible to be drafted again and the Jays picked him a second time and this time he signed. He was originally a catcher and my understanding is that he was all bat and no field but I guess they decided he would never hit enough at any position to justify keeping him. I've never heard of any other problems with him but there may have been something considering his history. I did find him an intriguing prospect as well.

Here is Tim Wilken's record in brief.

Thanks Mike - was driving me nuts trying to remember his name.  I suspect he kept climbing and the Jays draft record kept getting better.  The big killer was when Interbrew (who bought out Labatts and was 'stuck' with the Jays) started cutting the budget I suspect.  That probably led to losing Epy Guerrero and the Jays doing more and more value picks instead of 'best possible' ones, then Rogers bought out the Jays and JPR went moneyball but was doing it a few years too late (ie: after the low hanging fruit started getting expensive). 

I'm hopeful AA's drafts turn out like those 90's drafts.  In truth, if you look back further you keep getting great value in the draft quite often - guys like Dave Stieb, Jimmy Key, David Wells, Jesse Barfield, Lloyd Moseby were all drafted.  Lots of value back then post round 1.
Jays pre-1990 by round, players with 10+ WAR
Round 1: Lloyd Moseby (27)
Round 2: David Wells (54), Derek Bell (13)
Round 3: John Olerud (58), Jimmy Key (50), David Weathers (11)
Round 4: just meh quality
Round 5: Dave Stieb (57), Pat Hentgen (33), Mike Timlin (20)
...
Round 20: Jeff Kent (55) (note: others exist for 10+ WAR, just wanted to get the other 50+ here)

Quite the talent in rounds 2-5 over that 13 year stretch (1977 to 1989) but just one big hit in round 1.  8 solid guys, 4 of which were near HOF guys (50+ WAR) plus a 5th in Kent.  All time in MLB there have been (using rounding) 305 guys with 50+ WAR, to get 5 of them in a 13 year stretch is amazing given the Jays mostly wasted that first pick (MLB has existed for 143 years going from 1871, at least 16 teams around most of that meaning an average team should get 1 or 2 every decade).  I checked for others but Tony Fernandez and Carlos Delgado were both in the mid-40's (dang good, but not a 50+).  Basically the Jays got 25+ years worth of 50+ guys in that 13 year stretch.

Some v good rule 5 picks... G Bell, J Acker etc... As well minor deals, F McGriff & J Guzman.

There were unsuccessful trades as well. P Huffman & M Lemonjello, but they had high upside.

Gillick had 2 phases. Building and playing to win.

He was great at building.

Playing to win is harder for me to judge. He gave up a lot of value in the Alomar trade, so broke even or close to it.
D Ward for D Alexander was building. All those closers was playing to win, B Caudill etc... but at least he was trying. Good FA signings but they are not trades. So he was putting the final pieces on a v good team to win.

Gillick had a couple of 'playing to win' stages - early (84-90) and late (91-94).  The early one saw an addiction to trying to solve the pen issue (free agent Dennis Lamp, trading Dave Collins, Alfredo Griffin and cash to the Oakland Athletics for Bill Caudill,traded Jack McKnight (minors), Augie Schmidt (minors) and Jim Gott to the San Francisco Giants for Gary Lavelle.  He also liked DH's (Trading for Burroughs, Len Matuszek,  Al Oliver, Cliff Johnson).  Generally held onto guys too long (Damaso Garcia, Willie Upshaw for example) as well.  Did a few interesting deals (Sharperson for Guzman, Mike Flanagan for a few prospects including Jose Mesa, and dumb stuff like selling Cecil Fielder and Mark Eichhorn.  He certainly didn't hesitate to trade prospects back then and rarely was burned. 

The later time (91-94) he did far better big impact trades where he was willing to trade key pieces for more key ones (Junior Felix and Luis Sojo for Willie Fraser and Devon White; Tony Fernandez and Fred McGriff for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter; traded Denis Boucher, Glenallen Hill, Mark Whiten and cash for Tom Candiotti and Turner Ward; Jeff Kent for David Cone; signing Jack Morris, Dave Winfield, Paul Molitor, Dave Stewart, among others as free agents.  Clearly going for it he was willing to take big risks.  Of course, more dumb moves happened too (releasing David Wells an obvious one).  Also not one trade in the winter of 93/94 which was a mistake.  As Ash took over only minor trades during the strike and post-strike until the David Cone trade (2 guys who never made it and Chris Stynes who lifetime was an 8.2 WAR player).

Gillick left the system in better shape than most knew at the time.  He traded a lot of talent but how many would've been useful in the 94-2000 window?  Not many outside of Jeff Kent.

I've heard this a couple times about Guerrero Jr. Where is this rumour coming from and how likely is it to be true? (Links please). Also: who else are we rumoured to be "in" on in the int'l market? Who would you like to be "in" on?