Avan would make an adequate part time OF if Cruz is moved, and hopefully after a solid rebound 1st half, Cruz can be flipped for a decent starter.

Towers I like as much as Prokopec. It seems like these moves are pretty good- BP a couple of years ago wrote that the Jays failed b/c they assembled all the big-time talent, but lacked the supporting cast, and that seemed like very much part of the problem last year, not just with the pitching, but on the bench as well- any club that has to use Tom Wilson and Dave Berg at DH has some serious depth issues.

You're right about Wilson at DH being a problem; there were games last May and June when Wilson, Huckaby and Lawrence turned a third of the order into a black hole, and it wasn't like Cruz, Mondesi or Lopez were contributing much at the time.

Wilson -- for a catcher -- is the better hitter, but doesn't handle pitchers nearly as well as Huckaby, either game-calling or receiving, so his days are numbered. At best, he can give Huck a couple days off each week until Kevin Cash is ready for a permanent promotion. If Phelps is even adequate with the padded glove in the spring, I'd hand him the backup C assignment, and an occasional start at 1B, to get other hot bats in as DH once in a while, and enjoy the increased bench flexibility. Three righty-hitting C, one who never plays, isn't the best plan.

It's impossible to predict which, if any, of Aven, Howie Clark, Rob Ryan, Mike Moriarty, or similar longshots not yet acquired, will make the Jays in Dunedin. Collectively, they improve the odds of having a deeper, more productive 25-man roster, and having options means Werth and/or Wise don't have to fill roles they may not be ready for.

It's the same on the pitching side. Anyone who can pick the winner(s) of a spring competition that already includes Walker, Linton, Thomas, Towers and two guys named Miller has a better crystal ball than me. (It's not like Hendrickson is a sure thing, but I think he'll make the rotation.) You know they are not even finished retooling; at this week's GM convention, and next month's winter meetings, potential trades will be explored, and other FA possibilities remain.

No matter how it turns out, we won't have to endure the likes of Carpenter and Prokopec stoically (foolishly?) pitching hurt, or deer-in-the-headlights rookies like Mike Smith and Justin Miller (April version) getting knocked around. And when the inevitable poor starts occur next year, Tosca won't be forced to bring in other greenhorns like Cassidy or Thurman from the bullpen.

It's hard to identify one newcomer who's certain to make a difference in 2003 (I'll nominate Linton as "most likely") but this inexpensive, almost risk-free strategy is brilliant -- deeper depth is just what the Jays needed. The pre-emptive aggressiveness in signing players J.P. thinks can help is also smart; they've made "their" new guys feel wanted, instead of like afterthoughts, and avoided any last-minute FA bidding wars.

Could there actually be a 3-way race in the AL East next season? It depends on whether Ricciardi can parlay his strengths (corner OF, 1B) into a #2 starter. That shouldn't be rushed, as it's more probable this team will not be legitimate condenders until 2004 and beyond, but if the right opportunity presents itself, these Jays won't hesitate to seize it.