Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Forgive my weak attempt at word-play in my inaugural authorial entry. Wire services are reporting that ex-Jay Billy Koch and two Grade C prospects from Oakland's minor league system have been sent to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Keith Foulke, Mark Johnson and some cash.

Koch, who is arbitration-eligible and expected to command a salary in the 4M+ range for the next two seasons, is arguably a worse closer than Foulke, whose 6M contract concludes after this season. Predictably, Rob Neyer at ESPN (who wrote a well-researched column last year claiming that Foulke was in fact the most valuable relief pitcher in all of major-league baseball during the past three years)and Derek Zumsteg at BP have both commented negatively on Kenny Williams' acumen yet again, which inevitably leads to the further deterioration of Gord Ash's already-tattered reputation as a baseball executive. Wait, isn't he currently employed by the Selig mafia in Milwaukee?

It appears that Billy Beane has again made a shrewd transaction to earn the A's the best possible return from a deal where they gave up an expendable third baseman named Eric Hinske to the Jays. I suggest that all Jays fans should give thanks that the A's already employ the services of Mr. Chavez.

Several questions spring to mind as this trade is digested. First, might J.P. Ricciardi be able to move Kelvim Escobar to another team whose management doesn't subscribe to the theory that closers are a highly volatile and over-valued commodity? Most visitors to this site would agree that the Jays already have a viable (and much cheaper) replacement in Cliff Politte (ERA+ of 124 in 57.3 IP, with 57 Ks).

Secondly, how long will this window of opportunity remain open? A much-publicized hire by the Boston Red Sox, a man named Bill James, recently wrote of his belief that top-flight major-league relievers are not being used properly by their managers where their contributions can do the most good: in other words, when the score is tied, not in the ninth inning where a team is up by 3 runs. If a high-profile franchise like Boston begins to put this belief into practice on the field, one can only assume that the Book might get revised. Unfortunately, this means that the Jays cannot expect to take advantage of this gap between perception and reality for an indefinite period of time.
Sox Nab Koch | 3 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_Jordan - Tuesday, December 03 2002 @ 08:13 PM EST (#101783) #
Thanks for the post, Sean -- good points all round. I have to agree that Oakland comes out on top of this one, even if I don't think it's as lopsided as some of the Primates believe it to be. Mark Johnson is just a warm body and the minor-leaguers are still undetermined, so right now this one comes down to closer for closer. Foulke is a terrific pitcher with much better career peripherals than Koch, so I think the A's ended up with the better player -- which is, almost always, the point.

But I can see why Kenny Williams, who I think is a dolt when it comes to player evaluation, made the trade. Foulke makes $6M and is a free agent after this season, while Koch is arbitration-eligible for three more years (albeit at escalating rates). Foulke did implode as closer last year, and while he came back and pitched very well in the second half, it was in a setup role. So Kenny looks at this and says: "I can get a 100-mph Proven Closer and two minor-leaguers for an overpriced setup man." Little wonder he threw in Mark Johnson to carry Foulke's bags to the bus.

Beane's a bright guy, though. He knows that every pitcher utterly loses it once in a while, and that you can't judge a player on that basis. He also knows, moreover, that you don't need to have your best pitcher be your Closer. If he's willing to try it, he can make Foulke his de facto closer by pitching him in the seventh or eighth, and having someone like Chad Bradford (who's no slouch himself) serve the de jure closer role in the ninth. And he knows, finally, that if Foulke pitches well and the A's need help at the trading deadline, a soon-to-be free agent Proven Closer can yield great return. This is the guy who once dealt closer Billy Taylor mid-season, after all. My assessment: advantage A's, but it's not a landslide. If the Oakland prospects are pretty good, then that might level the field. But as regular readers know, I don't think Beane trades away good prospects whose initials aren't E.H.

What to make of Koch? This is now two straight teams that tired of him quickly. IIRC, there were reports that Beane only acquired Koch with the intention of flipping him to the Dodgers for Sheffield, and when that fell through, he was stuck with him. I've no idea if that's the case, but it sure doesn't seem like Billy B was terribly anxious to keep Billy K around.

I have great hopes that JP will be able to translate Escobar into something good on the trade market. With the outfield fairly settled, it seems like the Jays' trading surplus is exclusively in the middle infield and in short relief. I wouldn't be shocked to see a Lopez-Escobar package making the rounds of GMs with starting pitching to spare. Pollitte can't be a whole lot less effective than Kelvim was this year.

I've worried as well that the "Smart Gap" between the Blue Jays and other organizations is closing rapidly. But then I see trades like this, and I think things are still just fine. Put it this way: if someone had offered me Keith Foulke and cash for Kelvim, that deal would have been done in a nanosecond.
Craig B - Wednesday, December 04 2002 @ 10:52 AM EST (#101784) #
It turns out one of the prospects from Oakland is Neal Cotts, who is much better than Grade C (in my view... Sickels disagrees and has him as a C+) and makes this a more even deal.

Joe Valentine has been untouchable in his young career. One home run allowed in 140 innings above rookie ball? That's insane.
Coach - Friday, December 06 2002 @ 02:29 PM EST (#101785) #
I rejoiced at the Koch-Hinske trade even before I saw Eric; it was my opinion that Wild Bill, though he doesn't have ulcers, is a carrier. I was bullish on Escobar, because I reasoned he would appreciate having a clearly defined role for once. But Kelvim, like Koch, manages to shoot himself with all those weapons more often than he should.

Billy's comments after the last game against the Twins did nothing to dissuade me that he's too tightly wound for lasting success, and now that's the White Sox' problem.

This trade does suggest that there's a market for Escobar, and for the second year in a row I would love to celebrate the Jays' addition by subtraction of a talented but ultimately disappointing closer.

Shrike, you're now 1-for-1 in Batter's Box AB, admittedly a small sample size. I remain skeptical of Bill James' ability to revise "the Book" because managers like the present arrangement; it's easier to shrug off the Proven Closer getting ripped once in a while than it is to explain to the media hordes that the PC was unavailable in today's blown save because he pitched two innings in a tie game yesterday. I'd better stop before I get into my "save" rant, which inevitably leads to my "arbitration" rant, and soon I'll be thinking of agents again, instead of baseball. Must avoid that.
Sox Nab Koch | 3 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.