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If you're on cable anywhere in Canada, you can get a look at the 2003 Blue Jays this afternoon. Sportsnet will be carrying the game vs. the D-Rays at 1:00 EST; Sturtze faces his old mates, while talented young lefty Joe Kennedy goes for Tampa. I remember last year's first televised game very well -- not the result, or even the opponent, but it took one Eric Hinske AB for me to decide he was a terrific hitter. (This year, he's 0-12 so far, but has drawn four walks, so nobody's too concerned.)

Yesterday's 6-0 whitewash by the Red Sox was one of those games -- the Jays managed only two hits, as knuckleballer Tim Wakefield was very sharp, and the Boston bullpen committee did its job. Though Mark Hendrickson didn't have his best outing, he left trailing just 1-0 after two. The damage was done against Brian Bowles, but even he wasn't terrible -- after one strong inning, the roof caved in; four of the five runs he allowed were unearned, with Guillermo Quiroz contributing an error and a passed ball. You can excuse Bowles, whose pitches are so lively they can confuse a green catcher, if he lost his composure a little.


Tosca is moving people around, as battle for the last bench spot (or two) continues. Bruce Aven played a little CF, and Tom Wilson took over late in the game at third -- as much as everyone likes Ken Huckaby (see this story of a recent prank played on Huck) it sure looks like Wilson's made this team.

Quietly entering the picture is OF Rob Ryan. Drafted by the Diamondbacks in 1996, Ryan was an OBP machine his first two years as a pro: .421 for Lethbridge in Rookie Ball, then .431 in Class A. He was jumped all the way to AAA the following season, so you would expect a decline, but he raked PCL pitchers -- .317/.419/.503 -- and was almost as good in 1999 and 2000, earning callups to Arizona both years.

Guess who traded for Ryan in 2001? J.P. Ricciardi's old team. Perhaps the Tuscon heat is more conducive to hitting than the Sacramento heat, because his offence declined abruptly after the trade, and last summer, the A's shipped him to Boston. In Pawtucket, his stroke came back -- only a .266 AVG, but a .375 OBP and .489 SLG, in a league known more for its pitching. Obviously J.P. still likes him, and he's played in every Grapefruit League game, hitting .385 so far, with an eyecatching OPS of .929 -- not sure if he has the glove for CF, but he's way ahead of Mike (.143) Colangelo with the stick.

I know they're meaningless, but if you are curious about spring stats, both USA Today and MLB.com are more legible, and more up-to-date, than ESPN. The small sample size provides some incredible results: opponents are "hitting" .063 off Doc, and here's something you should get used to -- Greg Myers has a .167 AVG, but a .500 OBP, walking four times in his first 10 plate appearances.

The Rob Ryan of pitchers, sneaking up on the very disappointing (so far) Doug Creek, is Trever Miller, who had a superb 2002 for the Reds' top farm club in Louisville. As a former starter (a swing man as recently as 2001) he's no LOOGY, and Tosca has said he wants a lefty who can pitch a couple of innings. At the very least, Miller's first two IP for Toronto put him into the mix with Jason Kershner and Scott Wiggins for a bullpen job, but if Creek (16.20 spring ERA) doesn't find his form in the next three weeks, he might be released and two of the three minimum-wage lefties could make the cut.

Enjoy the game this afternoon!

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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Pistol - Saturday, March 08 2003 @ 09:01 AM EST (#94441) #
If Wilson is gettting time at 1B and 3B it seems to me that the Jays are looking to carry all 3 of Myers, Wilson and Huckaby.
Coach - Saturday, March 08 2003 @ 09:23 AM EST (#94442) #
That's a valid interpretation, Pistol, but I think they are auditioning Wilson to stick around as third C/utility guy/PH after the inevitable Kevin Cash promotion, or they are showcasing Tom's versatility (1B may be his best position) for a midseason trade. I stand by my 12-pitcher prediction -- Lopez is too good to let go -- which means a fourth OF is essential, while a third C is a luxury they can't afford. Myers catching Doc the other day is not a good omen for Huckaby or his fans.

My best guess? The winner of the Ryan/Aven/Colangelo/Wise contest heads north, then Werth, as soon as he's deemed ready, gets called up to replace that guy and serve as the emergency catcher. Wilson, in that scenario, has to be traded or waived when Cash is called up, or perhaps by then (I'm guessing July or August) the brain trust will decide to go with 11 arms.

I'm sure talent is the main consideration, but I suspect that ML service time is a factor in deciding when players should be called up to stay. By farming out Phelps and Hudson for the first half last year, the Jays certainly gave them additional development time, but (not sure, just speculating) they may also have gained a year of leverage down the road in arbitration eligibility. This year, most of us expect to see Werth and Cash in Toronto, and the timing of those promotions may depend on more than just their AAA productivity.
_Spicol - Saturday, March 08 2003 @ 10:15 AM EST (#94443) #
I'm sure talent is the main consideration, but I suspect that ML service time is a factor in deciding when players should be called up to stay. By farming out Phelps and Hudson for the first half last year, the Jays certainly gave them additional development time, but (not sure, just speculating) they may also have gained a year of leverage down the road in arbitration eligibility. This year, most of us expect to see Werth and Cash in Toronto, and the timing of those promotions may depend on more than just their AAA productivity.

I have to think that's a huge part of the equation for fiscally responsible JP. Most players are eligible for arbitration after 3 years but call a player up too early and he may become a Super Two (the top 25% of players with more than 2 years service time and less than 3 years also become eligible for arbitration...a year of service time in MLB is 172 days). Orlando Hudson, for example, won't be eligible for arbitration until before the 2006 season. If JP had called him up in May of 2002 though, instead of much later in the year, Orlando would likely have acquired enough extra service time to have been declared a Super Two before the 2005 season. He'll become an unrestricted FA a year later than he would if he were called up sooner as well. Keep your young players under your complete control a year longer than the competition keeps theirs and you've got a leg up. You have payroll certainty should you keep them and it makes players more attractive to other teams should you decide to trade them.

The service time that usually qualifies for Super Two status is 2 years plus 120 to 140 days, depending on the pool of players that year. I'd say that is one of the chief reasons why some of the best prospects don't win the Rookie of the Year award...they don't get called up until after May and don't play enough to put up the numbers. Hinske was an obvious exception, only due to a lack of options at 3B for the Jays.
_steve - Saturday, March 08 2003 @ 12:14 PM EST (#94444) #
It seems more and more likely with each passing day that Huck is heading North with this club, and I, for one, can't understand the logic! What bothers me the most is that there seems to be no pressure placed on him to WORK (on his hitting, if that's possible) to make the team. Myers, with his plate discipline, is deserving of starting job (and with it, 400 AB).

Anyway, here are some other random daily musings:

1) A couple of good articles taken from Red Sox Nation, where the GM Saga is still a hot issue. First, from the Hartford Courant, and the second, from the Boston Globe.

2) According to the Baltimore Sun, Buck Martinez is the likely candidate to take over as baseball analyst for Orioles games.
_Jurgen Maas - Saturday, March 08 2003 @ 02:38 PM EST (#94445) #
What? Buck deserves better than the Orioles.
_Mike - Saturday, March 08 2003 @ 10:44 PM EST (#94446) #
Carrying 12 pitchers is poor roster management. I can't believe the Jays will do that.
_Justin B. - Sunday, March 09 2003 @ 12:34 AM EST (#94447) #
Well, if they do go with 12 pitchers, one of them won't be Scott Cassidy; he was just assigned to the minor-league camp.
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