This is excellent work, but I especially like Stephen's disclaimer. Who knew that there's only a 6% chance that 162 coin tosses will produce an 81-81 split? Even if his individual projections are completely accurate (from my perspective, everyone else is pessimistic) and they "should" win 85, Tomlinson explains, "the Jays have a 24% chance of winning 90 games or more and a 7% chance of winning 95 or more". It warms an old coach's heart when really smart guys with databases and formulae confirm what I pluck out of thin air.

Regarding the individual numbers, there is (approximately) a zero chance that offensive anchor Huckaby will get 250 PA; Myers will get way more than 150 if he stays healthy. I think O-Dog will play more -- and hit better -- than predicted. Vernon Wells, who looked very good in the cage yesterday, might also exceed Stephen's projection. Aquilino Lopez will get a lot more than 70 IP, and I expect him to be the second best arm in the 'pen, after Politte.

I'm too lazy to do the math, but I'm pretty sure with those slight adjustments, old Pythagoras would agree with my 89-win "calculation". A little luck, a little chemistry, and the Yankees might be checking the rear-view mirror in September.

I'm surprised with no Linton starts, and Arnold up in the show so fast. Hopefully Huck goes to AAA as player-coach and the bench gets improved. Starting pitching looks very good, and I got the feeling that it won't be that good and that relief will be better ( again no math ).
Commenting on the AAA and AA rosters, where is Jayson Werth?, who are Sequea and Zuņiga? I do like Baker back at AA, and anybody knows if Logan can play 3rd? If J.F. Griffin is converted to 1st there will be quite a jam there. Both rotations and outfields look great, but the infields look thin.

is (approximately) a zero chance that offensive anchor Huckaby will get 250 PA

I hate to burst your bubble, Coach, but if Tom Wilson hurts himself you can just about count on it.

Roy loves throwing to Huckaby. That guarantees 35 games, and about 4 plate appearances a game. With that in mind, he'd only need another 110 to reach the 250 plateau. Like him or not, I think Huck is going to see a lot of action this year.
I've got a funny feeling that if Myers gets off to a slow start, he'll be shipped out, making room for another outfielder or another arm. Teams have much less patience when older players get off to a slow start, and are more apt to write them off as washed up. It's great to have a left-handed hitting catcher, but when he's bringing Geno Petralli-type offensive abilities to the table, it doesn't matter if he bats left, right, or upside down.

Well the big catching question is when will Cash be ready. If he's ready by July then I expect he'd eat most of the time at catcher in the second half. I hope they take the opportunity to DH him a couple of times a week in AAA so that he doesn't wear down in the first half. They appear to think that his struggles near the end of the year were due to fatigue and since Cash had a good spring there may be something to that. Cash isn't going to be great but he could be a Jason Varitek type hitter and that would be a huge boost over Huckaby.

I remember way back in 1990 the big talk was whether it was wise of the contending Jays to go with such a young catching tandem in Borders and Myers. At least Myers will have a bit more experience this time around.

I remember way back in 1990 the big talk was whether it was wise of the contending Jays to go with such a young catching tandem in Borders and Myers. At least Myers will have a bit more experience this time around.

And Pat Borders, ugh, seems to have made the Mariners as a back-up while Dan Wilson is on the DL. Evidently Gillick was unable to coax Ernie Whitt out of retirement.

Where is Jayson Werth? On the DL.

From Rotoworld.com
"The Blue Jays have decided to carry only three outfielders for now in part because they expect Jayson Werth to join the team once he's fully recovered from a wrist injury. Werth, placed on the DL yesterday[March 26], was expected to begin the season in the minors, but the Blue Jays now think they'll be able to get him enough playing time to make it worth keeping him in the majors. He's a nice player to have stashed away in AL-only leagues. "

My unscientific prediction is 83 wins. With a tough opening schedule and easy September I see Jays not being a serious WC contender. If the schedule was played back to front it might be a different story.

If the schedule was played back to front it might be a different story.

Pistol, what's your thinking there? That the Jays will be a better team after the All-Star break than before? Because otherwise, it really doesn't matter when the tough stretches are, it's the same 162 games.

If the Jays played the weaker teams first, they'd appear to be in contention in August, and might trade to bring in a player or two. As it stands, they're likely to be out of contention by the trade deadline, and might be tempted to dump Stewart, or Escobar, or whoever, for prospects.

The Jays minus dumpees will win fewer games than the current roster.

And Pat Borders, ugh, seems to have made the Mariners as a back-up while Dan Wilson is on the DL. Evidently Gillick was unable to coax Ernie Whitt out of retirement.


Whitt? Not interested. However, I have been trying to get ahold of Alan Ashby and Rick Cerone.

I just read all of Stephen's abstracts from past seasons (well, '91 on, as long as I've been a fan). Fascinating stuff! It's amazing how much objective fact disagrees with my adolescent memories... (for example, I knew that Joe Carter was overrated, but I never realized just how crappy he was in the latter half of his Jays career).

I'll be a regular visitor from now on!