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There are some great freebies at Baseball Prospectus, including the Postseason Odds Report, updated yesterday. Of particular interest is the AL wild-card race, in which Nate Silver's computations assign a 57.9% chance to the Red Sox and just 31.6% to the A's. To put Carlos Tosca's stubborn optimism into proper perspective, the Blue Jays "hopes" are down to 0.3% -- in other words, it's time to play Kevin Cash and Josh Phelps.

I'll bet the Diamondbacks (four games out with 39 to play) would argue with the notion that they have only a 6.9% chance of becoming the NL wild-card team. So would the Dodgers, who are one game farther back in the standings, with a mere 2.1% likelihood of playing in October. The Expos, despite being four games over .500, are impossible longshots (0.2%) according to these numbers. In both leagues, the Central Division remains up for grabs among three teams, but strength of schedule and third-order winning percentage favours the Cubbies (by a surprisingly large margin) and the Twins.
Morning Line: Jays 333-1 | 20 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, August 19 2003 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#94310) #
http://economics.about.com
Jeez, I wonder what the Blue Jays - Yankees - Red Sox trifecta is paying right now. :)

Mike
Pistol - Tuesday, August 19 2003 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#94311) #
Jeez, I wonder what the Blue Jays - Yankees - Red Sox trifecta is paying right now.

Ok, for 5 seconds I was dumb enough to try to multiply the 3 odds together to come up with a rough number. Stupid postseason eligibility rules....

in other words, it's time to play Kevin Cash and Josh Phelps

And Bobby Kielty.
_Spicol - Tuesday, August 19 2003 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#94312) #
Looking at the SOS, the Orioles are in for tough sledding here on in with the Jays having the 3rd easiest late summer in the AL. Third place is pretty much sealed!
_Spicol - Tuesday, August 19 2003 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#94313) #
And Bobby Kielty.

As much as I like Bobby Kielty, he has been playing really terribly over his last 80 or so AB. With Reeder having worked his way into the Jays future and with Catalanotto's eyes now actually working properly, it's tough to justify giving Kielty regular playing time.

Can he play short?
_Spicol - Tuesday, August 19 2003 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#94314) #
Yeah, in case you were wondering, Kielty at short was indeed written with a thorough dollop of kidding on top. Move along people. Nothing to see here.
Pistol - Tuesday, August 19 2003 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#94315) #
I'm not opposed to sitting F-Cat in order to let Kielty play.
Mike D - Tuesday, August 19 2003 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#94316) #
I'm willing to give the Jays a pass on the next nine games in terms of "playing the kids." There are a lot of clubs that are going to have a strong interest in the Jays not punting games against Seattle, Oakland and Boston.
_Gwyn - Tuesday, August 19 2003 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#94317) #
Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, August 19 2003 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#94318) #
http://economics.about.com
Ok, for 5 seconds I was dumb enough to try to multiply the 3 odds together to come up with a rough number. Stupid postseason eligibility rules

I meant that the three teams would rank in that order in the AL East. Sort of like horse racing.

It doesn't matter too much, though. I think the prudent thing to do would be to hold onto my 57 cents of life savings. :)

Mike

(That's U.S. cents, btw)
_Spicol - Tuesday, August 19 2003 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#94319) #
In potential monopoly news, the Cubs are keen on cornering the market on fast, no-hit, average fielder types and have picked up Tony Womack from the Rockies. On any given night, that gives Chicago a potential lineup that includes Womack, Tom Goodwin, Kenny Lofton and Doug Glanville. Wicked.
_Cristian - Tuesday, August 19 2003 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#94320) #
There's a Dusty Baker lineup if I've seen one.
Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, August 19 2003 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#94321) #
http://economics.about.com
Womack, Tom Goodwin, Kenny Lofton and Doug Glanville.

One of these things is not like the others.

Mike
_Donkit R.K. - Tuesday, August 19 2003 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#94322) #
Yeah, Lofton has had a productive career.
_Spicol - Tuesday, August 19 2003 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#94323) #
Sure, but it's not a lineup that strikes any amount of fear in an opponent, especially if Alex Gonzalez is at short.
_Jurgen - Tuesday, August 19 2003 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#94324) #
With the Cubs' hitting and the Cards' pitching, I don't know how Houston isn't running away with that division.

Team ExW-L
Astros 70-54
Cards 68-56
Cubs 63-60

And that's without Oswalt.
_Simon - Tuesday, August 19 2003 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#94325) #
Something completely off topic, but why no minor league updates for a while now? Just asking.
Coach - Tuesday, August 19 2003 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#94326) #
Simon, there was this blackout...

We have other excuses. John Neary recently moved; his Internet access is sporadic while his building is being renovated. Gideon's been at a conference for several days and is also about to move. I'm the third-string farm reporter, and I've been either off-line or really busy. We'll be back to normal soon, and we'll make up for the recent lack of minor-league updates by getting some comments about the system this week from J.P. himself.
_Simon - Wednesday, August 20 2003 @ 01:48 AM EDT (#94327) #
Sorry, I'm in living in the East so it's hard to keep on reminding myself that things really were bad over there (and still are I assume). My apologies. I only ask because they were good reading.

In other news, I might be able to attend my first ever Jays game on this Saturday if everything goes to plan. I'll probably be sitting in the upper deck behind home plate in the cheapest seats possible. It's still a big 'if' though. Wish me luck as I have to convince my baseball hating family.
_Simon - Wednesday, August 20 2003 @ 01:49 AM EDT (#94328) #
EDIT

I'm *not* living in the East.
_A - Wednesday, August 20 2003 @ 03:22 AM EDT (#94329) #
Try and get out to it, I think that happens to be a Bobblehead give-away day. And if I'm right then it's our favourite 1993 World Series MVP.

Totally different topic: I had the distinct pleasure of watching a Linx vs Skycheifs game and I came to this conclusion: Reporters need to go through the same ranks as players and should eventually be brought up with the big club (I know that happens to a certain extent but I mean stick with one club all the way through so they learn the system inside and out). One of the two Ottawa colour "analysts" was far, far, far better than Faulds could ever be. Not once did we here "high and outside for a single up the middle"
Morning Line: Jays 333-1 | 20 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.