There's a point in every undervalued player's career where he gets so frequently discussed as undervalued that he actually becomes overvalued. Aubrey Huff is that guy right now...he's jumped the shark (BTW the phrase 'jumped the shark' soooo jumped the shark when the jump the shark guy appeared on Howard Stern). You won't sneak Aubrey past anyone come draft time.

I have to think that with today's trade, Alfonso Soriano once again becomes the Number 1 fantasy player. The Ballpark should help out his HR totals and he'll be given free reign to run. A 40-40 season for Soriano is a distinct possibility. ARod is obviously no slouch fantasy wise but the steals will separate them.

If you had the first pick overall in your league this year, who would you take?

Bonds could be suspended for steroids, Clemens is a wild card, I'm not about to draft a Yankee...

if you were even considering taking clemens first overall anytime in recent history, i doubt you'd be winning many leagues (boycotting yankees probably doesn't increase your odds either) -- hard to goagainst a-rod as being the number 1 pick --

Top picks in fantasy drafts last year were ARod, Soriano, Randy Johnson, Vlad Guererro, Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, and Barry Bonds. In most leagues Batting Average is used, not OBP, so Bonds gets seriously devalued. The reason ARod and Soriano are better than Bonds/Vlad is positional scarcity. OF and 1B have a ton of stud hitters, whereas SS/2B/C/3B are weak. SP is a risky venture with a top pick, but fantasy drafters are easily seduced by the gaudy stats of RJ, Curt, Pedro, despite their age and injury risks.

In my humble opinion, this trade does nothing to alter ARod's perch as fantasy's best player. He'll have much more protection in NYY's line-up, and the fact that he may get dual eligibility as a SS and 3B is just gravy. Sure, he may run less, but he'd been running less of late anyhow (17 last year was up from 9 the previous year, but a far cry from his 46sb year in 1998). The real dent to ARod comes in no longer having the Ball Park at Arlington as his home field. 50 homers seems it won't be a shoo-in this year. 40 is probably a more reasonable estimate.

Soriano's value may bump up a bit if he can find his way in Texas, so yes he could become the second overall pick. Pitchers which will be the first picked this year are Prior and Halladay, along with the aforementioned big 3. Pujols has asserted himself as a top pick, even without his 3B eligibility. And Todd Helton is a fantasy stud with his Coors Field aided numbers.

And as nate points out, Clemens is no where near the first round of a fantasy draft any more. Perhaps he's worth a flyer around pick 80 overall, but he's not one of the top 20 pitchers in fantasy any longer.

Bring on the BBFL !!!

Soriano's value may bump up a bit if he can find his way in Texas, so yes he could become the second overall pick.

Park effects should knock ARod down a bit and give Soriano a boost. On top of that, if Buck Showalter does the smart thing and hits Soriano 3rd or 4th, behind Blalock and Teixeira, he should see his RBI total shoot up. In traditional roto, he'll now be putting up big numbers in all 5 categories. Even if the lineup change happens, Rodriguez should still have a slight edge over Soriano in RBI and Runs Scored thanks to the big Yankee hitters around him. But, since no one runs anymore, the relative value of a steal is significantly greater than any other stat and Soriano will more than make up the gap in value.

My advice changes depending on the league and the categories but in traditional 5x5, I'll be picking Alfonso.

http://www.canadasdebate.com
I've got one bit of advice for drafting fantasy teams... Ignore ESPN's fantasy gurus at all costs. They've burned me with Bellhorn, Hidalgo and Choi.

On another note, can anyone recommend a good (cheap) keeper league online?

If you had the first pick overall in your league this year, who would you take?

1B has a little more depth, but you'd have to consider Pujols and Helton with the first pick too. I don't take positional scarcity into account as much as some people. A lot depends on your league format.

Bonds could be suspended for steroids, Clemens is a wild card, I'm not about to draft a Yankee...

Well for a moment that Bonds is on steroids, even if he tested positive the initial penalties are pretty minimal, and I don't even think they include a suspension.

There's a point in every undervalued player's career where he gets so frequently discussed as undervalued that he actually becomes overvalued. Aubrey Huff is that guy right now...

Good point, I may be a year behind on this. But I'd rank him 5th among 1B, and given that he qualifies at 1B and OF he's a little bit more valuable. It's possible that he isn't undervalued, but I overvalue him.

Anyone have any thoughts on these 5 players?

Pat Burrell
Adam Dunn
Austin Kearns
Hee Sop Choi
Mike Piazza

I can see all 5 bouncing back (or bouncing in the case of Choi), but I worry that I'm a little too bullish on all of them.

i'll never draft dunn again -- not after last year ... too many holes in that big swing ... curious to see where piazza plays, but his stats have been declining yearly ... choi could be a nice late pickup at first ...

can anyone recommend a good (cheap) keeper league online?

Joseph, that depends on your definition of cheap. I know of an AL league and an NL league that will run about $50 (US) per year for your dues and all transaction fees. Both are looking for a new owner, and I'd be happy to put you in touch with the Commissioners. E-mail me if you're interested.

I'm usually dispensing advice, whether it's wanted or not, but I have a fantasy question. AL 5x5, I can protect either Josh Phelps or Alex Sanchez. My other keepers are Halladay and Santana, so I look good in four pitching categories even before the draft. My heart says go with the home-town slugger and hope Tosca never, ever starts Cash behind the plate and Crash at DH. My head says the Tiger leadoff man, whose game I really loathe, can win me a category all by himself. What to do?

Oh really? Perhaps my Mr. Beltran will have something to say about that, Coach. ;)

For a plethora of reasons, I'd go with Phelps.

Advice sought for the same straight draft league that Coach is talking about. I can protect one of the following players:

Hinske (6th round)
Foulke (10th round, need to acquire a pick to keep the Sox closer)
Pineiro (11th round)

I will be protecting Beltran and Teixeira as my other two keepers, so I have a solid foundation for my offense. I'm leaning towards keeping Pineiro and trading Foulke for a favourable swap of picks.

My head says the Tiger leadoff man, whose game I really loathe

In a AL 5x5 striaght draft I'd go with your head and keep Sanchez. On top of likely leading the league in SB's he will score a few runs leading off an improved Tigers offense. There's lots of power out there to replace Josh but few bona fide base stealers who have the green lite.

Hinske (6th round)
Foulke (10th round, need to acquire a pick to keep the Sox closer)
Pineiro (11th round)

Foulke would be my man here. Money in the bank closer in a season where there are more than a few question marks.Foulke also can go two innings in tight games and pick up more wins than any other closer in the AL right now.

Anybody have any experience with 12 team AL 5x5, $260 budget Auction Leagues?

I have a plethora of potential keepers and dollar value is significant as our league is infested with roto sharks. This is our 13th season many have been in since the start.

I can keep 4 of these

Huff $20
Cat $10
Brousard $ 5
Matos $12
Bigbie $ 5

Doc $25
J. Davis $ 1
D. May $ 1
R. Ortiz $ 5

Our league tends to over pay for the top 5 starters and if Doc was in the pool he will probably max out at $33-34. So thats maybe $9 value.

I really like all the hitters here but am leaning toward keeping all the pitchers for a total of $32. Going the balanced route I am thinking Huff, Bigbie, Davis and May.Total $27. Help?

I would keep Hinske and trade for that pick to keep Foulke. Pineiro is a good pick in the 10th round depending on how big your league is but I think you can find decent starters through luck and/or research. The value of a bankable closer, eventhough I'm loathe to use high draft picks on them, cannot be denied. To be able to keep one for a 10th round pick is most definately worth it. Trade for that pick...just try not to let others know it's so you can keep Foulke or they might hold you up. ;)

Phelps versus Sanchez...if Josh Phelps were guaranteed an everyday job I think it would be be a tougher choice but with Sanchez likely challenging 60 steals in a full season I don't think he can be ignored. I mean in an AL only league there's maybe five players who are good bets to steal 30 bases. Depending which round pick these guys cost I'd lean towards the steals.

Something I always drill into my own head before and during every draft: it's not a bargain if you had to pay a high price for it. Even a mid-round pick can be a high price if selecting that hot rookie batter or promising young hurler meant you missed out on a sure rbi outfielder. On the flip side, in the late rounds you can afford to gamble on high ceilings. Last year the AL Rookie of the Year went 434th overall and the NL Rookie of the Year was undrafted.

Young players who look like they're on the cusp of stardom tend to be overvalued while proven oldies tend to be undervalued. It's not hard to see why...it's exciting to draft a young guy in the 5th or 6th round who hits it big. Just keep in mind you're probably passing up a "sure thing" to take a chance on that younger guy.

Lefty, you have cost certainty with a true ace pitcher in Doc. Take a page out of the Jays' books and keep him. ;) I definately like Bigbie for $5 and the rest of the pitchers too. Huff and Cat are a tough call. Up to you.

I have a question for you guys. I am in an AL only league where you can sign players for up to 5 years. I have Mike Macdougal for 1 buck (Closers go for 25 to 40 usually) signed for 3 more years. I have an offer of 50 bucks for Macdougal and I also happen to own Affeldt for a buck for 2 more years. Do I take the cash for this years auction or do most of you think Macdougal will be a bargain for 3 more years?

Thanks

Opinions from someone who doesn't know nothin':

If Bigbie avoids the sophomore slump, he'll have a big year. Might bat third in the much improved Oriole lineup. Huge improvement in physique last year ... hope it wasn't steroids.

Burrell still has the Evil One as his manager. Downgrade all Phillies until Bowa gets the axe.

On the other hand, Dunn and Kearns are now free of their own moronic manager and should do well. Dunn is young enough to have a lot of growth left. He was only 23 last season, was "horrible" and still hit .354 OBP and .465 SLG! Comps though age 23 include Barry Bonds and Reggie Jackson. Kearns was also only 23 last season.

Do I take the cash for this years auction or do most of you think Macdougal will be a bargain for 3 more years?

Unless it's a closer like Wagner, Smoltz or Gagne always dump closers if you can get value for them. To me, closers are the biggest risk in fantasy baseball. I never pay much for them.

Macdougal might not even the closer in June let alone 3 years from now. Make the move for the money and keep Affeldt. In an AL only league he'll have value even if he's a middle reliever.

I've got one bit of advice for drafting fantasy teams... Ignore ESPN's fantasy gurus at all costs.

Are you referring to the lead guys or the correspondents?

Well, maybe it doesn't matter.

Take the $50, trade McDougall, and try to work as many deals with this guy as you can before your Commissioner shuts you down.

While everyone is posting advice on specific players, I will give 10 points of general fantasy advice (Note this stuff actually works - I have won 6 leagues in a row and all but one was very competitive).

1. Know your league rules, figure out how to exploit them and build your team accordingly.

2. Don't trust the experts or your own biases - trust the hard stats. The best predictor of future performance is past performance.

3. Always choose performance over potential - the best rookies rarely out perform the underappreciated veterans and the ones that do rarely start in the majors in April and therefore are completely unpredictable.

4. If a player is over or under performing, try to find out why (e.g. made a quality adjustment, park effect, injury, late blooming talent, or not enough to begin with) and then decide what the appropriate action should be.

5. Balance is the secret of success, spread your offence out across as many players as possible (mananging risk), focus on players who are good in every category as opposed to explosive in one (e.g. Pierre for steals) because it is much harder to replace to a single category stud than a guy who is good everywhere. In the same vein draft a balance of pitching and hitting.

6. Don't believe in position scarcity, just draft or pay for the best available player because 1. an injured allstar catcher is much harder to replace than an injured allstar Outfielder (managing risk), 2. a mediocore shortstop (eg. Furcal) doesn't give your team much more than an economical bad shortstop (eg. Lugo), whereas a Furcal priced outfielder gets you a lot more than a Lugo priced one (managing reward) and 3. a slight dip or increase in performance at a scarce position wil have a much greater impact on your team and is also much harder to predict therefore you are more likely to mine a late round nugget or get saddled with an early round disappointment at a scarce position (managing risk and reward).

7. Generally, look for hitters who bat either 3rd or 4th in the lineup (this is where runs and rbi are found) and stick to pitchers on good teams (wins, wins, wins).

8. Pay attention to what others teams are doing and adjust your lineup accordingly, always try to maintain your balance in respect of your opponents - if you can afford to sacrifice a couple of steals to earn more points in RBI (or vice versa) do it. Also keep an eye on the waiver wire for players who are justifably exceeding expectations and don't hesitate to grab them.

9. For roto leagues, never concede a category - you are only spotting your opponents points and don't overload in a catgory, whether you win homeruns by 1 or 50, you still get the same amount of points. Also avoid category killers (e.g. Bunitz, D. Roberts, K. Ishii).

10. Manage your pitching staff, don't let your marginal pitchers start Coors or against the Yankees. Young pitchers, for some reason perform better at home than on the road and get your strikeout pitchers in against strikeout prone lineups (eg. Cubs and Phillies) regardless of the match-up.

11. Avoid any pitcher with the first name "Sterling" or the last name "D'Amico."

can somebody hook me up with one of these leagues? i''m only involved in a couple of yahoo leagues, and they aren't nearly quite as interesting and as detailed as the keeper leagues sound ...

One AL only keeper league I am in is looking for 2 owners to take over existing franchises. The league is quite detailed yet very enjoyable and has been running for 6 years already. If anyone is interested just email me.

For all you who are way too bored or cannot wait for fantasy abll to start ESPN is doing sample drafts for people. You can sign up and draft a team for no real reason other than to do a draft. Its also a good indicator to see where players are going this early in the season and what expectations are.

http://games.espn.go.com/cgi/flb/request.dll?CORRESPONDENTS&Param0=14
I've got one bit of advice for drafting fantasy teams... Ignore ESPN's fantasy gurus at all costs.

Are you referring to the lead guys or the correspondents?

Well, maybe it doesn't matter.

Thanks a lot! I take no responsibility for past correspondent mistakes. One thing I'd add to Jeff's list of suggestions: Try to quantify everything. The main thing I disagree with Jeff on is the balanced attack approach. Basically I think a player with 50 steals is just as valuable as a player with 25 homers and 25 steals.

I take no responsibility for past correspondent mistakes.

Well, I do. I'm sorry that two years ago, I liked Felipe Lopez. I was fooled by how easy everything seemed for him in his 2001 callup. I think that's about it for mistakes, and I managed to get a couple of things right since then.

Congratulations on getting the gig, Jared. I hope you have fun with it.

Thanks, Coach. I didn't realize that I was taking over for you. Why did you decide to retire? I might go with Phelps over Sanchez. Sanchez will have more steals than Phelps will have HR's but he'll kill you in run production. If Sanchez steals 50 and Phelps hits 25 HR's, Phelps just needs 20 more runs and 40 more RBI's to have the same value. I think that's pretty doable when you look at the difference btw the Detroit and Toronto lineups.... and, c'mon wouldn't you rather have Phelps?

Basically I think a player with 50 steals is just as valuable as a player with 25 homers and 25 steals.

Actually, steals are generally more valuable than HRs due to their relative scarcity.

All other things being equal, in my league last year 1 steal was worth 33% more than 1 HR.

Pistol, are you going on just total number or steals in the league? There are fewer steals than HR's but they're also less evenly distributed than HR's. This makes the variabilty of steals on the fantasy team level greater. I think the value of a marginal steal should equal 1/standard dev.(steals). Although there are more HR's than steals I think stdev (HR) = stdev(SB) on the team level. Does that make any sense?

Actually, I stand corrected. I was going on player rater's values. I did the math myself for 4 random 5x5 leagues last year and sb's were, on average 42% more valuable than hr's.

Actually, I stand corrected. I was going on player rater's values. I did the math myself for 4 random 5x5 leagues last year and sb's were, on average 42% more valuable than hr's.

But the key here is that it's the marginal increase in steals over HRs. If you have someone like Dave Roberts who will get relatively no RBIs or HRs, but 40 steals, you're not helping yourself.

The key is, if you have 2 players that are pretty much the same, but one gets 10 more SBs than the other, that's a fairly significant amount. In my 14 team mixed league that was worth almost $5 more last year.

Thanks a lot! I take no responsibility for past correspondent mistakes.

I'm a correspondent, too, Jared. Was just making a little self-deprecating joke.

Why did you decide to retire?

A year ago, our "quota" was arbitrarily doubled, but our "pay" remained the same. I didn't much like the principle of that, even though I had been about three times as prolific as the minimum requirements in the past. One of the very best correspondents, who had also exceeded all expectations (in quality and quantity) drew a line in the sand over that issue and was replaced. I wonder what ever became of him?

The next "last straw" came when ESPN hired Rush Limbaugh. I composed my resignation letter, but didn't send it. However, that was the moment I became certain it was my final season there, and I just mailed in a few more updates.

Last year I was often simply paraphrasing for ESPN readers things I'd already said better in Da Box. My best Jays writing, such as it is, was here. Certainly I was bringing more passion and (I hope) wit to these pages than I was to that gig, which had ceased to be fun.

Another part of the job I won't miss, because this site keeps my Inbox pretty busy, is the e-mail flood. I'm not sure what his playing time or production will be, but I'll confidently predict you get 200+ Woodward questions between now and the end of spring training.

That column led directly to Batter's Box, so I have no regrets, but it was definitely time to move on. I'm glad you got the opportunity, Jared, and wish you all the best with it. I'm sure Jays fans will be checking out your stuff. For entertainment as much as information, we also keep a close eye on what your colleagues Gitz (Oakland) and Scott (Texas) are saying when they're not in Da Box.

As to my Phelps/Sanchez decision, sometimes the answer falls directly into a guy's lap. That league, believe it or not, is considering some rule changes right now. One would be an extra keeper or two, another would be if you have two 23rd-rounders to protect (that's where our promoted prospects are eligible; it's a long story how I got Sanchez that low) you can keep both, with your 22nd and 23rd picks. So I might end up with a nice power-speed combo in the last two rounds instead of taking guys with one leg in the waiver pool as my second catcher and ninth pitcher. Fantasy ball is one of those endeavours where I'd rather be lucky than smart.

In regards to balance, my point is that it is better to have two players with 25 homers and 35 steals than it is to have one 50 homer no steal and one 50 steal and no homer, simply because the player performance is unpredictable and it is even moreso in the extremes. There is a greater chance that a Thome or Pierre will fall from 50 to 30 home runs/steals in any given year than it is for an Abreu to fall from 25 to 15. Secondly, there is little chance that a Thome will hit more than 50 home runs or start stealing bases or a Pierre stealing more than 50 bases or start hitting to hit home runs, whereas it is less of a stretch for an Abreu to go from 25 home runs or steals to 30. Thirdly, it is much harder to make-up 50 steals if Pierre goes down than it is to make-up 25 home runs and 25 steals if Abreu goes down (in terms of total line-up adjustments as opposed to one waiver wire saviour).

In terms of statistical significance, one home run is more likely to impact the standings than one stolen base and therefore more significant regardless of the relative value.

There is a greater spread between first and worst in steals than there is in home runs because so few players contribute meaningful stolen base totals. Since the few impact stolen base threats usually perform poorly in home runs, every place you get in steals will usually cost you more places in home runs (assuming all other categories are equally affected).

While Pierre has value, his value is less in fantasy terms than he is generally credited for because he absolutely kills you in two categories and his lack of production in those two categories is going to hurt your team more than his one excellent category is going to help because of the spread in those categories. Obviously don't abandon steals as a category or Pierre (he is still a valuable fantasy player) but balance you have to balance your gains in one category against the losses in others and decide where the value is.

Lucas, I was just mock taking offense.

Coach, that's interesting to hear. The Limbaugh hiring was pretty bad but at least he's gone now. I just got my first email question today but I'll amused and overwhelmed if the Woodward questions start pouring in. I'm just hoping it's an amusing hobby.

Re: steals and homers. I think any one player's impact is close to marginal although this is less true with top picks and less true for steals.

There is a greater chance that a Thome or Pierre will fall from 50 to 30 home runs/steals in any given year than it is for an Abreu to fall from 25 to 15.

I don't know if this is true or not. I think steals are probably more unpredictable than homers b/c some players really do just stop stealing bases. Pitchers are also much more unpredictable than hitters. Do you draft hitters first and roll the dice with pitchers later b/c pitchers are so unpredictable anyway?

No prob, Jared. I thought you were taking my sarcasm seriously, and then I took your sarcasm seriously. Hard to tell when you're looking at word on a screen.

Anyway, congrats on the gig. It's good for impressing strangers at parties and might look good on a resume, but I haven't changed jobs in forever. FWIW, you get up to 800 characters in each of the text boxes. Any beyond that are cut off.

Thanks. Good to know about the 800 characters. I think the form said just 600. I don't suppose there's any coding you can use for a line break?

Man, I had trouble staying within those 800-character boxes, which I'm sure comes as no surprise. I was amused by the ESPN filter. Once I said Cliff Politte "throws hard on the pound-for-pound scale" and it bleeped the second and third words. I had "conspicuous" edited for an apparently subliminal racial slur. You never knew where it would take offence.

Jared:

Nope, no line breaks, no italics, no bolding, no nothing. Correspondents are not to be entrusted with complex html tags like (i) or (b). All we get are plain text boxes. I usually make the first mention of a player in capital letters so that a reader skimming for info on a certain player can easily find him.

Until mid-season 2002 we didn't even get to write our own headlines. They were fixed with titles like "On the mound" and "Going up." The boxes are annoying. I'd prefer a block of 5,600 characters or so and the ability to construct paragraphs as I see fit. But I don't see it changing. You get used to it.

Coach, I got the same problem with "auspicious." The filter doesn't like the "spic," though I haven't actually heard anyone use that term in ages.

Quick question... how would you fantasy baseball geniuses rank these three players?

Raffy Palmeiro
Bernie Williams
Jose Contreras

Hey guys, sorry to post this again but we have an AL only league that is auction style where you can also sign players to multi year deals. It is quite organized and lots of fun yet not too time consuming. This is the 7th year of the league but we need 2 owners to take over existing franchises. Anyone who wants to see our rules and spreadsheet or visit our site just drop me a line. We would love to get 2 owners who know their baseball and have some competitive spirit! Thanks

Kris

I had my big money draft yesterday ($200 to enter). It seemed to go really well for me. My strategy was to spend big on hitting and fill out pitching with bargains.

13 team, mixed league, 5x5

It was a typical auction, in that everyone called up early went way too high.

I started out getting Boone at $31 and B Giles at $29 and then sat for awhile. After that got Abreu at $27, Edmonds at $13!, and Berkman for $23. I didn't anticipate getting Berkman, I was just trying to call him out and get someone to spend $30 on him so they wouldn't get him for $15 at the end of the draft. Anyway, he filled my utility spot.

As the draft was winding down I needed a 1B and Wilkerson was still out there. I decided to wait until he was called up so that the teams with money left would use it on other players first. It worked out pretty well. Got him for $4 for his age 27 season.

I had protected Halladay and Prior, so I could afford to sit on the late bargains. Ended up with Batista for $5, Eaton for $2, and Affeldt for $1.

The biggest mistake, that I feel like an idiot about, is Josh Phelps. After I filled my DH spot with Berkman I had crossed off the DHs. No one else in the league took him in the auction portion of the draft. In the taxi part of the draft we have a snake draft. I had the second pick and totally forgot about Phelps (and Edgar Martinez) and ended up taking Rondell White.

Here's the whole team:

J Lopez* 9
V Martinez 5
Wilkerson 4
Blalock * 5
Koskie 11
Boone 31
Guzman 1
Hudson 1
V Wells* 20
Podsednik* 10
Giles 29
Abreu 27
Edmonds 13
Berkman 23
Prior* 15
Halladay* 13
Batista 5
Eaton 2
Affeldt 3
Rhodes 18
Speier 2
MacDougal 1
R Wagner 1

Bench:
R. White
Choi
Ohka
Morneau
Velvarde
J. Rivera
M. Herges

I'm going to need another starter or two, but I should be incredibly strong in the hitting categories so it shouldn't be that bad to acquire. Plus if things work out, I'll have a save surplus. Nen and Mantei are bound to get injured so Herges and Velvarde will come in handy, and I can see Wagner taking over for Graves.

That's a very strong team, Pistol. Great keepers, and despite the Phelps brain cramp, I think you did very well in the draft. Best of luck.

It was a typical auction, in that everyone called up early went way too high.

That's the most difficult thing for me, to wait and wait while guys I like are being sold, but it usually pays off to have more flexibility later on.

In the TRHL, our Internet auction goes on for a month or more, and with 24 teams and up to 50-man rosters, there can be tremendous inflation at the end, when several teams with money to spend all want the last decent catcher or reliever. This year, I misjudged the market badly, and left myself short a starting outfielder. Damian Rolls is going to see way too much time in RF unless I can make a trade; at least I'm in a position to take on payroll. :)

http://premium.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2637
Well, if you wait too long there won't be any top players left to bid on and you start overpaying for medicore players. Joe Sheenan at BP didn't overpay at all and had $35 at the end of his draft (COMN - premium).