http://www.wolf-howl.com/2004/10/game-winning-ball.html
You know nothing makes a yankee fan happier than hearing how much you hate them.

I dislike the Red Sox as well. It's all about equality. :)

QOTD: Go Cardinals! Not that it particularly matters... I can't see any hope for the 'stros with Clemens & Oswalt not available for the first 2 games.

The only upside to the ALCS is that one of those two obnoxious teams has to lose.

The other upside is that it should be a great matchup... don't get me wrong, I'm definitely in the camp that says "A pox on both your houses". But last year's ALCS was very entertaining, and this one should be too. The lesser of two evils: Go Sox!

I want to get Dolby sound for the ALCS. I'll be hyperactive all day waiting for it to start.

I get hyperactive just thinking about these playoff games.

It will be entertaining. I'll be watching. Might be organizing a beer club night for London on Saturday to watch the game.

Coach!!! Have you ever won this before?!?

200 million points for identifying Thomas Dolby's Hyperactive. You also get a picture of a cuttlefish:



and a picture of 2 seamheads at a Jays game:

Yeah, I broke my maiden a while ago, Mike. As the seamhead picture clearly indicates, I have a built-in advantage on the old songs. And that's a brilliant cuttlefish; it blinded me with science.

LOL. I cut and pasted the wrong URL. It's fixed now, though I think I liked it better before. :)

The e-mails came from all over the world -- from locales as distant as Italy and Switzerland

The answers came from bars all over the Annex and Soho. I considered asking about Gibby until I saw the "We reserve the right to edit your questions for brevity and clarity" disclaimer. I'd rather say nothing than be made to look brev or clar.

Fordin's batting .750 and slugging better than that; the ones about Delgado and Frasor were good for extra bases. He swung and missed at the "who will replace Carlos" query, where he could have dropped a lot more interesting names than Fullmer.

Bauxites should stuff the PC Sneer mailbag next week.

Who are we cheering for in the league championship series?

The red teams. It's 1967 all over again, except that Bob Gibson is probably too old now to win three complete games.

I'm going to enjoy this round of the playoffs... I enjoy both the Cards and the Astros. The Cards match up a lot better though with Pettitte and Miller out for the Astros. And you really have to worry about that bullpen for the Astros.

I am also going to really enjoy watching the New York Geriatrics lose to the Bo Sox.

So hitters do pretty well when they put the ball in play on the first pitch as opposed to overall. Is this a yearly trend? Does the degree to which they do well fluctuate? In other situations I assume they do better when ahead in the count.

It probably makes sense that they hit the first pitch put into play quite well. Whether it's a fastball or get ahead breaking ball or changeup, it will often catch much of the plate and the batter in an aggressive stance is in a good position to hit it as long as he recognizes it.

But the 8% suggest that there are a lot of people who either take that first pitch a lot or there are a lot of people who guess and don't recognize the first pitch or just miss it. If you're in a situation with a skilled and powerful hitter at the plate you want to be more careful because he has a higher chance of recognizing your first pitch, making solid contact with it, and doing damage when he does make contact.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3547
COMN for a fascinating BP study of the free agent market. The bottom line is that the single most important factor in the salary obtained by free agents is "previous year's salary", with "previous year's performance" a distant second.

I think I want to Houston to win, except they have to lose every game the Clemens pitches.

Put me down in support of the Astros -- yes, because I predicted it pre-season, but moreover, because no matter which team wins the AL pennant, the return of Roger Clemens to face them in the World Series will be a great story.

http://www.torontobaseballguys.com
It's a little late - having been away from the computer for most of the past week, but I just wanted to send a little thank you to everyone at the Box for helpiing to make last weekend's night at the Dome a success. NFH and the gang, R Billie, Jonathon, Leigh, Alex and the Coach, who came out of his plush-lined, jewel-encrusted press box to sit with us, certainly enhanced the evening.

David Bush spinning a gem didn't hurt either.

Saturday was also a good time, as the Little Red Machine invaded the SkyDeck to watch the Doc look healthy and effective. Thanks to Aaron for the excellent banner. Thanks again, and I look forward to more nights like that in 2005.

The first pitcher, the "strike one" pitcher, has an expected ERA of about 3.60. The second one, the otherwise perfectly average one who always throws a ball on pitch one, has an expected ERA of about 5.50.

Thanks, Craig, for giving me another effective way to explain what I've been preaching to high schoolers for years. It's even more pronounced at our level because a walk is so often a triple, unless you're blessed with a strong-armed catcher. Great article, and I can't wait for Part Two.

If you're in a situation with a skilled and powerful hitter at the plate you want to be more careful

R Billie, that's correct, but you're still trying to get strike one or better still, the one-pitch out. That skilled and powerful opponent becomes even more dangerous when you fall behind. If you rely on scouting reports that identify the most notorious first-pitch swingers, maybe you can achieve the goal by going just out of the zone with a hard sinker or slider.

As important as that first strike is, you shouldn't be grooving a get-ahead fastball down the middle against anyone; the knee-high outside corner is a much better target. Nobody's location is perfect, so there will be hittable mistakes, but a pitcher who gets strike one with off-speed or breaking stuff once in a while will keep most hitters just off balance enough that they might foul off the occasional cookie.

no matter which team wins the AL pennant, the return of Roger Clemens to face them in the World Series will be a great story.

Rocket vs. the Yanks would be good, though it'd be better if Pettitte were pitching, too. Would Clemens facing the Sox again really be a good story though, given all the times he's faced them already, including the Aaron F**ing Boone game?

I mean we already had the "Clemens pitches his last game in Fenway" story twice last year, didn't we? I admit, I did think it was cool in that last regular-season game last September. In the ALCS, though, I just found it tiresome. If it were to get hyped again this year, I think I'd just find it nauseating.

hitters batted .341/.348/.555 on 0-0 counts in 2003. Overall, these hitters (i.e. all major league non-pitchers) hit .268/.337/.430.

That .341 would also represent their OnBase, one would think - hey, why is it .348, anyway? Probably some logical reason, but it was turkey and wine for me last night and not all the synapses seem to be firing in sequence... or firing at all...

Anyway, I think an even more useful comparison would be to what batter hit on Balls in Play. We see they're hitting .341 when they put the first pitch in play and .268 overall. Which makes it look like its worth it to the hitter to take a hack - hey, I'm adding 70 points to my average or whatever. But of course you can't strike out on the first pitch...So I'd be wondering how the .341 compares to overall numbers on Balls In Play. Unless its a Whole Lot Better, which seems unlikely, such hitters are...Really Putting Themselves in a hole.

Bob Gibson is probably too old now to win three complete games.

OK, but he could probably give them six good innings. It is October, and he is Bob Gibson...

He swung and missed at the "who will replace Carlos" query, where he could have dropped a lot more interesting names than Fullmer.

Well, I think he fouled it off. He didn't actually answer the question, which asked for names. But he makes a good point about "freely available talent" - he's right, it's out there, and you can find it and use it. Its the Blue Jay way, as well. Rance Mulliniks was always Exhibit A...

Curt Schilling (aka Gehrig38) has started the game thread over at Sons Of Sam Horn - he is obligated, by board tradition, to keep starting the thread until they lose. He's a little more circumspect today. Last time, he expressed his confidence in Bronson Arroyo by saying that the young man had "nuts the size of Saturn" and the faithful followers of the Olde Towne Team posted the most amazing pictures you can imagine. It appears that some Red Sox fans know their way around Photoshop....

Last time, he expressed his confidence in Bronson Arroyo by saying that the young man had "nuts the size of Saturn"

Craig B, read up. Arroyo evidently one-ups Maddux in the testicle dept, or is this just a bit of election-year playoff-season puffery?

Magpie, the .348 versus .341 represents HBPs, less the sacrifice flies.

The BP study that Mike Green linked to is fascinating!

11036.1

The rumor is that Texas offered Teixiera for Wells and a prospect, but JP countered with Wells, Dinkske, and a prospect for Teixeira and Kevin Mench. this according to Baseball Weekly(aka Sports Weekly). Talks are apparently still on going.

The rumor is that Texas offered Teixiera for Wells and a prospect

This doesn't make any sense to me. It seems like you'd be filling a hole by creating another huge hole. Who would play CF? Rios? Johnson? Craig Burley?

Well, I think he fouled it off.

There's no way I'm going to have SF batting 1.000; he'd be insufferable. Let's be kind and call it a productive out on a fielder's choice. The sample size is small, but so far his mailbag AVG and OBP are the same, which shows the patience we've come to expect.

he'd be insufferable

And he's not now? :)

Who would play CF? Rios? Johnson? Craig Burley?

Any of those three would make a fine centerfielder in my view.

Burley's estimated VORP is -99.9 and he'd be a clubhouse lawyer. I can't make that trade.

Any of those three would make a fine centerfielder in my view.

Lemme tell ya about that Craig Burley. He's got less range than Keanu Reeves. Sure I'm one to talk. I hope I've got that much hustle when I'm 68. I tell ya, I get no respect at all.

The rumor is that Texas offered Teixiera for Wells and a prospect, but JP countered with Wells, Dinkske, and a prospect for Teixeira and Kevin Mench. this according to Baseball Weekly(aka Sports Weekly). Talks are apparently still on going.

A trade of Wells, Hinske and a prospect for Teixeira and Mench makes sense to me. The outfield would become Gross/Johnson, Rios and Mench with an infield of Hill/Hattig, Adams, Hudson and Teixeira. Cat/Menenchino are the DHs. This alignment better utilizes Rios' range and Gross' arm, while placing Cat at the optimal DH slot.

Lemme tell ya about that Craig Burley. He's got less range than Keanu Reeves. Sure I'm one to talk. I hope I've got that much hustle when I'm 68. I tell ya, I get no respect at all.

Plus, Burley doing air guitar and singing along with John Fogerty will not do wonders for attendance.:)

As much as I'd hate to lose Vernon, can you imagine the kind of hero's welcome he'd get in Texas?

Would it make a lot of sense from the Rangers point of view? They're taking on a great deal of salary there. I suppose it depends who the prospect(s) are.

Where would Hinske play in Texas?

I think a fresh start for Hinske may be the best thing for both sides.

Don't forget that Teixeira could move back to 3B, which he played in college and in the minors. He moved to first 'cause some guy named Blalock was already there. If it gets rid of Hinske, I like the deal. It also gives the Jays some more $$$ to signed Delgado or get another solid bat in the outfield. I could take or leave Mench. I'd really be curious about the prospect though. Given it is the Rangers, I'm guessing it would be a pitcher. I wouldn't give up Chacin, Marcum, Rosario or Banks in the deal. On second thought maybe Chacin...

Has anyone heard any more on the rumoured File release or other Jays' offseason roster cleaning?

Wasn't Rios a CF coming up anyway? I distinctly remember reading that he could inevitably push Vernon to a corner spot, or maybe I was just hallucinating. That happens a lot.

The trade itself, I can't see Texas doing the one Ricciardi allegedly offered (Wells, Hinske, and a prospect). The Rangers would be screwed royally by taking Hinske's contract, unless of course the pitching prospect is either Rosario, McGowan, or League, which I hope and pray that it isn't.

Getting Teixeira and Mench is a huge upgrade offensively, than we have more money to specifically put into pitching.

I'd hate to lose Vernon though. He seems like a good guy. And then there's the Scott Boras headache we could have to deal with. "18 million a year? Is that it, JP? Come on, this is MARK TEIXEIRA!" Ugh.

In the short term, the Rangers take on money but they probably save it in the long run. Teixeira is going to make a killing once he hits arbitration. Tex alone will likely make what Vernon and Hinske make combined over the final two years of their respective arbitration years. Though Tex has an extra year before he's arbitration eligible.

Would it make a lot of sense from the Rangers point of view? They're taking on a great deal of salary there. I suppose it depends who the prospect(s) are.

Yup. It is also possible that the Jays could absorb part of the Hinske and Wells salary cost. That's quite a low-cost everyday lineup they would be fielding. Again, it would depend on the prospect on offer.

By the way, Teixeira is signed up for $2.5 million in 2005, and will be arb-eligible in 2006.

. I wouldn't give up Chacin, Marcum, Rosario or Banks in the deal. On second thought maybe Chacin...

Wells, Hinske, and Marcum for Teixiera and Mench is a theft. I'd do that deal in a second.

I don't understand what the Rangers gain by such a trade, though. If you're going to take on that much salary, why not just make a run on Beltran?

It's a rumour. It's always fun this time of year to imagine blockbusters, but the gossip is rarely credible. I find it hard to believe that the Jays are shopping Wells or the Rangers are dangling Teixeira, so even if there's a "reliable source" for this, it's probably some scout's idle speculation on a "what might it take?" question.

Since we're playing this game, how about Ligtenberg for Rhodes? I hear (from the little voice in my head) that both teams would like to be rid of those contracts and both pitchers could use a change of scenery. If the Jays should get Koonce for taking on the extra salary, it works for me.

This isn't the first time Wells has been linked via trade rumour to Texas; IIRC, that one involved Carlos Pena coming to Toronto. Perhaps needless to say, good thing that one didn't come to fruition. I'm similarly skeptical there's anything to this beyond idle chatter, but it may be good preparation for a substantial roster shakeup this winter.

I don't understand what the Rangers gain by such a trade, though. If you're going to take on that much salary, why not just make a run on Beltran?

I agree, but maybe some of it stems from the marketing side of things, with Wells being from Texas. Plus Wells is only one year removed from a monster season and the Rangers have Gonzalez at triple-A ready to play first base.

Since we're playing this game, how about Ligtenberg for Rhodes?

I was wondering about Rhodes too. He could be that lefty the Jays have needed and a good veteran in the pen for the young kids.

I imagine Carlos Beltran would be a much larger fan draw than Vernon Wells.

UPDATE

Under:
Me ("I love Elvis and Beach Boys. Check out my hair")
Prof. Mophatt
Mike D
Paul D
Magpie (The chill from the Schil)
Jeff "I've never met Ilkka Sinisalo" Geauvreau
Rob (The John Wasdin of MVP pitching)
Wayne "Jobu Can't See Me" H
DGriebeling (Care Bear STARE!!!)
Jason "Dont call me rebar" Robar
Keith "I have marginal" Talent
"I'll sue you if you mention me" Lucas

Over:
Donkit R.K.
Jack Foley
Dr. Zarco
6-4-3 (Tanyon "I'm over achieving" Sturtze)
Wunderbat (via satelite phone)
Dan (Pedro "Lambada: The Forbidden Dance" Martinez)
Tassle (Fan "interference")
Flyin' Ryan Lind
Emerald "I can be purchased on the shopping channel"
Reidmar the Mediocre (Do you remember Beakmans' World?)
Dave "Harry Heck" Till
A (my name is too short to do anything fun with)
Craig "Everybody look at your hands" B

The Rangers aren't looking for a draw. They are looking for a very good defensive CF. Beltran will cost them 10-15 million a season. Wells is reasonably signed for another 3 years. They have Adrian Gonzalez ready for 1B should they move Teixeira.

Why would they trade Teixeira? Financially motivated is my guess, since Teixeira figures to be a very rich man over the next four years before free agency, while Wells' ceiling salary over the next 3 years is a little over 5 million. It's not as unrealistic as it might seem to be.

I never thought of Chacin, but that is the best example of selling high that the Jays have. He's major league ready and a lefty too, which makes it better for the Rangers. Wells, Hinske, and Chacin for Teixeira and Mench is great for the Jays. Than use the remaining money on a stopgap 3B (or just use Hattig) until Hill is ready, and put most of the money on pitching (Clement, Williamson, etc).

Ironically, I was also thinking of Ligtenberg for Rhodes. As well as Ligtenberg for Chris Hammond, who I believe makes 3 mil next season.

I imagine Carlos Beltran would be a much larger fan draw than Vernon Wells.

I don't know if I agree. Beltran is just now getting national attention now that he is out of the media black hole that is Kansas City...

There's gone to be a HUGE amount of media hype on Beltran this off-season due to his free-agency. It would be great for the Rangers if they could snag him away from the Yankees. It'd give them a lot of exposure.

Then if they're really interested in dealing Teixiera, why not trade him for pitching? I imagine there's about 20 teams in baseball that would be thrilled to take Teixiera off of the Rangers hands.

while Wells' ceiling salary over the next 3 years is a little over 5 million. It's not as unrealistic as it might seem to be.

Of course, if you have to take Hinske's contract as well it becomes a ceiling of 10 million. At that price why not keep Texiera and Mench and sign Beltran instead?

In 2007, Hinske and Wells make a combined 10+ million. At the same point, Teixeira will be in his 5th year, meaning at least a salary of 7-8 million by himself. Beltran figures to sign mroe than a 3 year deal, meaning he should be making anywhere from 12-15 million at that point. The Rangers want to be cost effective after the whole A-Rod incident, and that's not the way to accomplish it. Would they pay over 20 million for Teixeira and Beltran, or over 20 million for Wells, Hinske, Clement, Chacin, and maybe another bat or two (just throwing out names, but you get the point)?

If they trade for Wells and Hinske, they have set salary players who don't make a terrible amount of money over the next three years. They have money left over to acquire pitching. Heck, if they play Hinske at 1B or DH, his offense will definitely pick up in that park, and he may be tradeable down the road. Wells will probably be a .900 OPS player in that park and at center, that's extremely valuable.

I'm not saying Texas will make that deal, they probably won't, but it's not completely without valid reasoning for both sides. I think John Hart is done with the A-Rod, Beltran type signings, and is going back to what got him to the dance in Cleveland, and that is player development and trading. Just my opinion.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/transactions/trans.html
not sure if this was posted already, from baseball america's transactions COMN.

Toronto Blue Jays

Signed RHP Po-Hsuan Keng and OF Cory Patton.

http://www.torontobaseballguys.com
Jobu, sign me up for the under.

Heck, if they play Hinske at 1B or DH, his offense will definitely pick up in that park

If they play Hinske at 1B or DH, they're dumber than a sack of hammers. If they're going to punt the position entirely, why not just sign Dave Berg? He's going to be available and far cheaper.

That's the problem with this scenario. The Rangers have absolutely no use for Hinske, and by making this trade, they're paying the Wells/Hinske centerfielder almost as much as the Beltran centerfielder and they're losing Texiera AND Mench, two valuable assets. That strikes me as being an unbelievably bad move.

Wells for Teixiera, on the other hand, strikes me as a great move for Texas. If I'm the GM of the Rangers I make that deal in a heartbeat then go out and get Thai food to celebrate.

I think Wells to Rios would be a big step down in center. We've all seen that Rios doesn't have quite the range and not much of the instincts that Wells possesses. Then offensively we're talking about a chasm in the short term which you hope draws even in the long term.

That deal would take a lot of guts to do because despite the offensive difference, Wells put up a very high VORP last season. If you assume his normal level of production will be in that neighbourhood (.900 ops or so) that type of player is extremely hard to replace in that position. Barring the blossoming of Rios into a very good hitter which is possible but not a given.

The other side of the coin is, Teixeira looks like a 24 year old Carlos Delgado. And while he's going to get quite expensive over the next three to four years, he shouldn't approach the $18 million that Delgado was making. The Jays should be able to cap him around $10 million in the last year of arbitration, maybe less if they sign him ahead of time. Or if they go year by year, they should be able to trade him if he starts moving out of their payroll scheme. The most important thing is it would give JP a do-over on the Hinske contract. Because that $4 million average salary over the next three years is not looking good.

That's a trade fraught with peril for both sides though frankly I think a lot less for Texas since they already have plenty of offensive options at first and are adding a near top-of-the-line player in center whose cost is certain. And presumably a decent pitching prospect. Of course, I wouldn't do this trade from the Jays perspective if said prospect were League, McGowan, or Rosario.

Okay, then I guess Texas will have to trade Blalock instead of Texeira in the deal. Then they can use Hinske.
:)

LOL. I like how you think, Paul D. :)

UPDATE

Under:
Me ("I love Elvis and Beach Boys. Check out my hair")
Prof. Mophatt
Mike D
Paul D
Magpie (The chill from the Schil)
Jeff "I've never met Ilkka Sinisalo" Geauvreau
Rob (The John Wasdin of MVP pitching)
Wayne "Jobu Can't See Me" H
DGriebeling (Care Bear STARE!!!)
Jason "Dont call me rebar" Robar
Keith "I have marginal" Talent
"I'll sue you if you mention me" Lucas
Jim "The Bad Guy" TBG

Over:
Donkit R.K.
Jack Foley
Dr. Zarco
6-4-3 (Tanyon "I'm over achieving" Sturtze)
Wunderbat (via satelite phone)
Dan (Pedro "Lambada: The Forbidden Dance" Martinez)
Tassle (Fan "interference")
Flyin' Ryan Lind
Emerald "I can be purchased on the shopping channel"
Reidmar the Mediocre (Do you remember Beakmans' World?)
Dave "Harry Heck" Till
A (my name is too short to do anything fun with)
Craig "Everybody look at your hands" B

Moffatt, as the great Robin Williams said in Awakenings -- I', sorry, if you were right, I'd agree with you.

Seriously, Teixeira for Wells, even Wells and a prospect? NO chance. Coach is right, it's idle warm stove speculation; it appeared in the Fort Worth Star Telegram, too, and even though that's literally Wells' hometown paper, the startlegram, local talk radio and local Rangers maven Jamey Newberg have dismissed it.

And forget the "hometown boy" angle. Every time someone realizes there's an All-Star quality Metroplex boy in the majors -- Wells, Torii Hunter, Kerry Wood -- speculation starts about how soon the Rangers will make a run at him. NOBODY CARES. If John Hart really thinks acquiring a local boy would be good marketing, well that'd be so John Hart-like of him ... he only need look back at the amssive marketing push the Rangers made for the large hispanic market with Pudge, Juando, the Big Cat, etc. -- and that was a failure of massive proportions. Why> Because the team sucked. They fans came back this year not because the Rangers went out and got local legends Ben Grieve and Todd Ritchie, but because the team actually won.

There is no greater bandwagon fan base than in North Texas; they never abandoned the Cowboys, true, but the Stars have had trouble filling the stands since Lord Stanley visited and the Mavs ... well.

If it's Wells and Lilly then Texas considers it .. and I know, TO would never do that. Or perhaps Wells for Tex and Park ...

The move to centre field for Rios, in the event the trade talk is not simply idle speculation, would lessen the impact of Rios' not yet developed power. As a corner outfielder, his value is much lower due to his lack of homers. Should the power not develop as he fills out, that would be less of a problem VORP-wise in centre. Of course, there would be a defensive downgrade from Vernon Wells.

A power hitting corner outfielder would be easier and cheaper to add as a replacement in right. In the alleged deal, that corner outfielder would be Kevin Mench.

Tex would likely become the third baseman in such a scenerio, to maximize his positional value. He would immediately provide an All Star calibre third baseman. A first baseman is much easier to find than a player for the hot corner.

A move back to first is also available for Tex too. should John Hattig or more likely Aaron Hill, arrives on the scene. A shuffling of cash could also make re-signing Carlos Delgado a longshot possibility as well.

The possible pitching prospect is problematic. As long as it's not McGowan, Rosario, League, or Banks....fine.

If they play Hinske at 1B or DH, they're dumber than a sack of hammers. If they're going to punt the position entirely, why not just sign Dave Berg? He's going to be available and far cheaper.

Hinske will be able to hit in that park. The "great" Hank Blalock hit .239-.323-.460 on the road this year. .260-.301-.435 in 2003. Yet he's "great" and signed to a long-term deal. The park in Texas is a massive hitter's park, and Hinske should be more than adequate as a player there, especially if they work on his swing and get his power stroke back. Up until this year, he was a close to .800 OPS player. Add Texas park and some work with his swing, and it's not out of the realm of possibility he comes back strong. That's a tradeable asset should they rejuvenate him, or at least taint his numbers due to the park.

Again, I'm not saying it's the ideal situation for the Rangers, just that it's not a complete disaster either.

That's the problem with this scenario. The Rangers have absolutely no use for Hinske, and by making this trade, they're paying the Wells/Hinske centerfielder almost as much as the Beltran centerfielder and they're losing Texiera AND Mench, two valuable assets. That strikes me as being an unbelievably bad move.

Again, Hinske can play 1B, DH, and fill in at 3B if Blalock is injured. As for making the same as Beltran....huh? Hinske and Wells make a combined 5.9 million in 2005. Beltran will use that figure as toiler paper in his new contract. Not even close to the same. The only time the salaries of Wells and Hinske will be close to Beltran is 2007, and by that point, Teixeira would be making 7-8 million himself, and Beltran's contract (probably increasing per year) will be somewhere close to 15 million at that point, while Mench would be an expensive corner OF. That's the difference between Matt Clement or no Matt Clement.

Again, I'm not saying it's an ideal trade for the Rangers. It was an offer Ricciardi allegedly made, so the Rangers probably don't have interest or will counter with something else (maybe Batista instead of Hinske, another scenario I wouldn't mind from the Jays end). But it's not a ridiculous trade suggestion from a financial standpoint. You think a team that just lost millions of dollars by paying A-Rod and Chan Ho Park 15-20 million each is going to just throw that at Beltran without fixing other areas? Come on. That's like saying why re-sign Delgado when we could get Player X for 15 million a year. We just got out of a siutation where we pay 1 player 40% of the salary, why do it again?

I think we'll have to agree to disagree. :)

I'll take the OVER, Jobu.

I think the most important thing is being overlooked...The increase in the value of my Craig Burley rookie cards I've been stockpiling for such a scenerio...

Larkin will not be offered a contract by the reds maybe this is someone JP goes after as a back up to Adams?

I think we'll have to agree to disagree. :)

That's fine. At least we can all agree that JP trying to rid himself of Hinske's deal, even if it's just a (baseless?) rumor is a good sign.

UPDATE

Under:
Me ("I love Elvis and Beach Boys. Check out my hair")
Prof. Mophatt
Mike D
Paul D
Magpie (The chill from the Schil)
Jeff "I've never met Ilkka Sinisalo" Geauvreau
Rob (The John Wasdin of MVP pitching)
Wayne "Jobu Can't See Me" H
DGriebeling (Care Bear STARE!!!)
Jason "Dont call me rebar" Robar
Keith "I have marginal" Talent
"I'll sue you if you mention me" Lucas
Jim "The Bad Guy" TBG

Over:
Donkit R.K.
Jack Foley
Dr. Zarco
6-4-3 (Tanyon "I'm over achieving" Sturtze)
Wunderbat (via satelite phone)
Dan (Pedro "Lambada: The Forbidden Dance" Martinez)
Tassle (Fan "interference")
Flyin' Ryan Lind
Emerald "I can be purchased on the shopping channel"
Reidmar the Mediocre (Do you remember Beakmans' World?)
Dave "Harry Heck" Till
A (my name is too short to do anything fun with)
Craig "Everybody look at your hands" B
Johnny "The bad guy in 80s movies is always" German

the .348 versus .341 represents HBPs

(After a few more hours of sleep) DOH!

A trade of Wells, Hinske and a prospect for Teixeira and Mench makes sense to me.

Except why would Texas possibly want Hinske? To play 1B?

And why would Ricciardi trade his best hitter (unless a miracle happens), and one who he knows how much is going to cost him? One who plays a key defensive position to boot, and plays it well?

Mind you, I think Alex Rios would be an excellent centre fielder. Certainly better than Bernie Williams, who at this stage is about even with Craig B.

How about Hinske for Park!?

I'll take the over - a game will start late, Mussina's head will asplode, the sides will be warned and then well, stay tuned to find out...

Mussina's head will asplode.

Best typo of the day. Cue Blazing Saddles.

How about Hinske for Park!?

Forget I said that. I thought he had one year left on his deal...

Larkin will not be offered a contract by the reds maybe this is someone JP goes after as a back up to Adams?

I can't see Larkin foregoing retirement to be a backup, especially outside of Cincinnati. Not that I'd make him a starting SS if I had any say...

I say forget Mench and offer up Wells, Dinkske for Texeira and Soriano. Texas is trying to dump Soriano anyhow. He can then be put in the SS slot or give third bag a try. He would play great at the Dome!

Certainly better than Bernie Williams, who at this stage is about even with Craig B.

Dammit, I'm telling you, this Burley kid can play. He can pick it. He's got wheels to spare. The good face. Projectable bat with monster upside. Reminiscent of a young Dan McGarvey.

Put me in, coach... I'm ready to play today; look at me - I can be centerfield.

Teams that lose 90+ games do not have untouchables, but if this one did, it would be Vernon Wells. I think they'd rather trade Halladay, or Rios, or their firstborn son unto the next seven generations. There is just no way I can see him being moved. What Wells means to this team is basically this - they get Carlos Beltran level of performance at a fraction of the cost. And that's a huge thing for this team.

Obviously I can see some reasons to move Hinske, and the fact that Ricciardi has relentlessly talked up Hinske's value every time his name is mentioned does nothing to dissuade that. Its what you would expect him to do. But he's coming off two straight disappointing seasons, he's got a lot of money committed to him, he doesn't look to me like a player who will age well, he is not very well regarded by people from other organizations (not the ones I've spoken to anyway - they kind of shudder at the prospect of having him around)... this has a good chance of ending up like Mondesi.

Coach, I thought Burley was a RP. That didn't work out, now he wants a position change?

Sounds like a trouble-maker...

Magpie,

Don't know if you can say or not, but why do other teams not want Hinske around? I've heard conflicting reports from people that I know as to him being a jerk-some say he's a hell of a guy, others disagree. His performance over the past two seasons has been, of course, abysmal, so I could understand that.

People I've talked from other organizations seem to think he's a jerk. Doesn't make it true, not at all. But if that word is out, and out in the open enough that I hear about it, it seems to me that it doesn't make moving him any easier. I figure if I've heard it, everyone in baseball has heard it.

If Wells is being talked about how about Doc. Who knows if he will bounce back next season and have a CY Young type season. He's locked up long term under big dollars. At the season ending press conference JP said there are no untouchables on the team but trading Doc was "unrealistic".

I wonder what trade offers the Jays would get for Doc.

I honestly woul;dn't be too opposed to trading Halladay. JP keeps saying that the Jays can't afford to spnd 10M on one player, well Halladay will make 10.5 next year if I'm not mistaken.

I don't WANT to trade him, but if they could get some bats or relievers, and then pray that all their pitching prospects work out...

I think teams like the Yanks/Red Sox/O's would love to have Doc but don't really have anything to offer (in terms of low cost quality players).

A team like the Rangers or Indians would make sense as trade partners.

Of course if the Jays trade Doc they don't have a number one starter. But the Jays are rebuilding right?

Teams that lose 90+ games do not have untouchables, but if this one did, it would be Vernon Wells. I think they'd rather trade Halladay, or Rios, or their firstborn son unto the next seven generations. There is just no way I can see him being moved. What Wells means to this team is basically this - they get Carlos Beltran level of performance at a fraction of the cost. And that's a huge thing for this team.

I agree. Texeira would be great, but filling one hole by creating another doesn't seem like a great move to me. Especially when you consider the popularity of Wells, his contract, and the future contract(s) of Texeira.

Assets like Wells don't grow on trees, in some cases its better to spend money rather than assets. I believe this may be one of those cases. It would be different if the Jays were trying to make room for a young guy, but there is no one in the system pushing to replace Wells.

This deal just seems like change for the sake of changing.

. At least we can all agree that JP trying to rid himself of Hinske's deal, even if it's just a (baseless?) rumor is a good sign.

I suspect JP isn't trying to rid himself of the Hinske deal and I don't think trying would help that much.

Why? Simple: As little value as Hinske has right now to the Jays, he has even less value to the rest of the league. There's always the potential Hinske bounces back, so why sell at the lowest point of his value? Hinske's value is never going to be lower than it is now.

Buying high and selling low is never a good strategy and I'm alarmed how often it's come up in the past few years. (see Phelps, Josh)

Buying high and selling low is never a good strategy

This is very true, Lord knows - but the argument here is Cut Your Losses While You Can. What makes this different from Phelps is the amount of money Hinske gets over the next three years.

But you're right about Hinske's perceived value to the rest of the league. Right now, he'd be doing well if he got a ride to the airport in exchange for Hinske... Which Ricciardi surely knows, so he's probably not shopping him and is in fact talking about him as a cornerstone for the future.

Other GMs are probably wondering what he's smoking, but someone might be thinking if maybe there's something he doesn't know about Hinske...

Packaging Hinske with a tradeable asset can rid the team of his salary, which is what Ricciardi is going for if the rumor is true. This is not necessarily a case of selling low. It's a case of trying to get out of a bad contract. Whatever they did to Hinske's swing to lessen the K's has killed his game. A change of scenary will do him some good. I don't expect a team to absorb his entire salary, but you have to look around and see what's there. I hope JP is doing that.

Trading Phelps was not selling low. If JP reasonably thought Phelps' swing was too much of a detriment for him to succeed, and Phelps had no options left, why give him AB's? Just to increase his value? His K rate and lack of BB's were already an issue in the minors, and his ability to catch up to pitches was deteriorating, but let's give him AB's to heighten his value? Doesn't make sense.

Sometimes it's better to cut your losses than to hope it improves and pray for a better return.

This is very true, Lord knows - but the argument here is Cut Your Losses While You Can.

Agreed, and I do understand that line of thinking. Problem is that stallion left the barn about six months ago and she doesn't look like she's coming back. :)

Trading Phelps was not selling low. If JP reasonably thought Phelps' swing was too much of a detriment for him to succeed, and Phelps had no options left, why give him AB's? Just to increase his value?

That's not at all what I'm suggesting. In fact that probably would have made the situation worse, not better.

What I'm suggesting is that the Phelps trade came about a year too late. Same with the potential Hinske deal.

Magpie is right. I don't think you could get a cup of coffee for Hinske. I mean, of course it doesn't hurt to look, but if anyone thinks that a team would offer anything of value for Hinske (even say, taking his salary and offering nothing in return), I think they're deluding themselves.

UPDATE

Under:
Me ("I love Elvis and Beach Boys. Check out my hair")
Prof. Mophatt
Mike D
Paul D
Magpie (The chill from the Schil)
Jeff "I've never met Ilkka Sinisalo" Geauvreau
Rob (The John Wasdin of MVP pitching)
Wayne "Jobu Can't See Me" H
DGriebeling (Care Bear STARE!!!)
Jason "Dont call me rebar" Robar
Keith "I have marginal" Talent
"I'll sue you if you mention me" Lucas
Jim "The Bad Guy" TBG

Over:
Donkit R.K.
Jack Foley
Dr. Zarco
6-4-3 (Tanyon "I'm over achieving" Sturtze)
Wunderbat (via satelite phone)
Dan (Pedro "Lambada: The Forbidden Dance" Martinez)
Tassle (Fan "interference")
Flyin' Ryan Lind
Emerald "I can be purchased on the shopping channel"
Reidmar the Mediocre (Do you remember Beakmans' World?)
Dave "Harry Heck" Till
A (my name is too short to do anything fun with)
Craig "Everybody look at your hands" B
Johnny "The bad guy in 80s movies is always" German
Geoff "That is too say Jeff" North

the Phelps trade came about a year too late. Same with the potential Hinske deal.

And what we have here is two young hitters who have (so far anyway) failed to develop. Their best seasons were their rookie seasons. Presumably the league adjusted to them, and for whatever reason, neither of these guys has been able to adjust to that.

This is just hard to figure. Phelps, by all accounts, is a bright young man. I've never heard anyone question Hinske's work ethic. Young players... you expect them to improve, or at least maintain what they were. Both of these guys have gone backwards...

This is the kind of thing that one often suspects is a coaching issue, and this could make me very worried about Alex Rios, and mutter things about Mike Barnett. But Vernon Wells did make his big leap foward with Barnett around.

We search for explanations, we quest after knowledge, we try to make sense of it all... but it could just be One Of Those Things.

Which is frustrating.

This is the kind of thing that one often suspects is a coaching issue, and this could make me very worried about Alex Rios, and mutter things about Mike Barnett. But Vernon Wells did make his big leap foward with Barnett around.

Yeah, I don't know what's causing it either. After a point, though, you have to figure it's not just "luck"; there's something systematic going on. If we're not at that point we're at least pretty close.

Given how pretty much everyone on the Jays is turning into a groundball hitter, I'm very worried about Rios developing.

I question how much of 2003 was Wells making a big leap forward rather than just him having a career year. 2005 will be a big test.

This may also be a case where JP is a little scared because of the decline of phelps and hinske, he doesn't want the same thing to happen to Vernon and be stuck with two guys signed long term who aren't producing. If we could get a guy like tex, a real masher, a top of the order of adams, hudson, rios, tex would be real interesting for a few years. If we included batista we could definately afford bringing carlos back. We'd probably have to include a top pitcher maybe chacin would be enough.... playoffs aren't even over yet, i hope this talk can last all offseason!

Agreed, and I do understand that line of thinking. Problem is that stallion left the barn about six months ago and she doesn't look like she's coming back. :)

Interesting economics and science here. Changing a stallion (a boy horse) into a she is a real accomplishment in livestock genetics and gender alterations.

Is there a Nobel in Mophatt's future?

Maybe she left as a stallion and now she's a gelding.

And not very happy about it either.

Maybe she left as a stallion and now she's a gelding.

And not very happy about it either.

The Nobel Prize Committee is a really tough crowd this year. :)

About an hour left to join the pool in an attempt to win a magnificent "prize".

Interesting economics and science here. Changing a stallion (a boy horse) into a she is a real accomplishment in livestock genetics and gender alterations.

Is there a Nobel in Mophatt's future?

Maybe my future is in politics. If I keep making statements like that people are going to call me the next Stockwell Day. :)

Me Grimlock taking the over.

UPDATE

Under:
Me ("I love Elvis and Beach Boys. Check out my hair")
Prof. Mophatt
Mike D
Paul D
Magpie (The chill from the Schil)
Jeff "I've never met Ilkka Sinisalo" Geauvreau
Rob (The John Wasdin of MVP pitching)
Wayne "Jobu Can't See Me" H
DGriebeling (Care Bear STARE!!!)
Jason "Dont call me rebar" Robar
Keith "I have marginal" Talent
"I'll sue you if you mention me" Lucas
Jim "The Bad Guy" TBG

Over:
Donkit R.K.
Jack Foley
Dr. Zarco
6-4-3 (Tanyon "I'm over achieving" Sturtze)
Wunderbat (via satelite phone)
Dan (Pedro "Lambada: The Forbidden Dance" Martinez)
Tassle (Fan "interference")
Flyin' Ryan Lind
Emerald "I can be purchased on the shopping channel"
Reidmar the Mediocre (Do you remember Beakmans' World?)
Dave "Harry Heck" Till
A (my name is too short to do anything fun with)
Craig "Everybody look at your hands" B
Johnny "The bad guy in 80s movies is always" German
Geoff "That is too say Jeff" North
He Grimlock

It's getting down to the wire now. I'm closing betting at 8 JST. That's Jobu Standard Time. Aka, my computer clock.

Anyone else catch Alex Rios on the BJADPPGS? There wasn't much to report: he may go to winter ball (not sure), he hopes to bulk up, he feels comfortable playing RF and batting anywhere in the order, etc.

I'm sure everyone here already knows a lot about AIR anyway. ;)

Jobu, give me the under.

UPDATE

Under:
Me ("I love Elvis and Beach Boys. Check out my hair")
Prof. Mophatt
Mike D
Paul D
Magpie (The chill from the Schil)
Jeff "I've never met Ilkka Sinisalo" Geauvreau
Rob (The John Wasdin of MVP pitching)
Wayne "Jobu Can't See Me" H
DGriebeling (Care Bear STARE!!!)
Jason "Dont call me rebar" Robar
Keith "I have marginal" Talent
"I'll sue you if you mention me" Lucas
Jim "The Bad Guy" TBG
Thomas (I can't post on time)

Over:
Donkit R.K.
Jack Foley
Dr. Zarco
6-4-3 (Tanyon "I'm over achieving" Sturtze)
Wunderbat (via satelite phone)
Dan (Pedro "Lambada: The Forbidden Dance" Martinez)
Tassle (Fan "interference")
Flyin' Ryan Lind
Emerald "I can be purchased on the shopping channel"
Reidmar the Mediocre (Do you remember Beakmans' World?)
Dave "Harry Heck" Till
A (my name is too short to do anything fun with)
Craig "Everybody look at your hands" B
Johnny "The bad guy in 80s movies is always" German
Geoff "That is too say Jeff" North
He Grimlock

That concludes the entries into the ejection pool Good luck in claiming the prize and in the words of Captain Planet

the power....IS YOURS!!!

Awesome. My underline experiment worked! I declare the project a complete success and move on to phase 2.

In light of his tremendous work here, I hearby give the power of HEART to Jobu. That whimpy kid before didn't deserve to be a planateer anyways.

YEAH!!!

The game thread's up.

As I seem to be the only BBox staffer around, I'll post the game thread. Give me one second.

Never mind. Thanks Mike!

You're welcome, Mike ;-)

Kind of late on this, I guess, but Blalock was very mediocre in the second half. Is the bloom off his rose at all, or do the Rangers just (rightly) assume it was a slump, and that he'll recover next year.

I'd definitely prefer Blalock to Teixeira, and if there's any possibility of "buying low"...

If they're going to trade Teixeira, though, shouldn't the Rangers be going after pitching?

http://me.woot.net
Ugh. Why do I think I just dropped into the worst scene in Jurassic Park?

Ugh. Why do I think I just dropped into the worst scene in Jurassic Park?

This is battersbox....you're gonna have to be ALOT more specific to which part you're refering too.

Interesting economics and science here. Changing a stallion (a boy horse) into a she is a real accomplishment in livestock genetics and gender alterations.

Is there a Nobel in Mophatt's future?

I have nothing to say here except "economists, geldings, fish, barrel, blam."

I can't believe I'm hearing comments about my occupation from a lawyer.