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The 2004 Scouting Report, By the Fans, For the Fans | 38 comments | Create New Account
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_Jeff Geauvreau - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 12:29 PM EST (#12156) #
It is nice to see Orlando Hudson getting some great respect from the Fans.

Nice work Tangotiger.
_Jobu - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 12:35 PM EST (#12157) #
I'm surprised Hinske was viewed so low as a defender. The only thing he had going for him this year.

Excellent work Tangotiger.
_Mick - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 12:54 PM EST (#12158) #
I'm surprised Hinske was viewed so low as a defender.

Oh, I'm not. For the very reason top offensive players seem to keep winning "Gold Gloves." There was such a visceral negative reaction to Hinske overall this season that I imagine many respondents viewed his defense negatively simply "because it's Hinske."
_Tyler - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 01:41 PM EST (#12159) #
I'm as negative on Hinske as anyone, but I do think it's entirely fair to not think too much of him defensively. Fielding percentage aside, do people think he had much ability to make plays? I know JP kept talking him up as a vastly improved defender, but in all honesty, JP isn't that credible when it comes to his comments about players in the media. Do you really think Hinske is a good major league 3B defensively Mick?
_Rob - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 01:47 PM EST (#12160) #
The only American League player with a higher overall score than Hudson's 81 is Pokey at 85. Andruw Jones is at 84, Castillo/Rolen/Edmonds are all 83, and Cesar Izturis blows everyone else away at 88.

If you're wondering, Gold Glove Winner Bret Boone is at 66.
_6-4-3 - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 02:42 PM EST (#12161) #
You missed Ichiro, who led both leagues with a 90. Eric Chavez had an 85, Mark Kotsay had an 83, and Torri Hunter had an 83. But still, Hudson mashed the competition at his position.
_Mick - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 02:47 PM EST (#12162) #
Do you really think Hinske is a good major league 3B defensively Mick?

Tyler, I'll have to take a pass on that one since I've only seen him on TV and then only rarely. But whether he's good, bad or fair, I thikn the point holds -- people who DO see him will rate him worse than he is because of the nearly fanatical anti-Hinske cult following.
_Rob - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 02:51 PM EST (#12163) #
But still, Hudson mashed the competition at his position.

Yeah -- my line above should have read "The only American League second baseman with a higher overall score" but even then, Pokey only played 30 games there.

Bottom line, the O-Dog got robbed. :)
_6-4-3 - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 02:57 PM EST (#12164) #
The interesting thing about Hinske is that he has the lowest agreement rating (.42) among anyone with a decent number of votes. While people didn't agree about the Yankees (Jeter, Olerud, Matsui especially), or Christian Guzman, none of these players had more disagreement in ratings then Hinske. So (I guess) there's people that think he's really good, people who think he's really bad, and his rating winds up around 50.
Pistol - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 04:17 PM EST (#12165) #
FWIW, Hinske was near the bottom of 3B in UZR.
_Jobu - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 04:27 PM EST (#12166) #
I do so enjoy a good baseball discussion.

I can only go by what I saw, but in that regard I did see a lot of games with my Starpass and the Cheer Club (vote now in my off-season poll!). I also watched a lot of games and a lot of teams come through town for comparison, and if I go by what my eyes tell me Hinske really did look like a competent defensive 3b this year. I know it's all my opinion but the way he played (and on the carpet to boot)really put . . . dare I say it . . . confidence in me that a shot to Hinske would be fielded well and thrown without last year's dreaded double-clutch. He didn't have much range getting to far ones and whatever the opposite of confidence is that's what I felt when he came up to bat, but if something was smacked in his area he usually came up with it.

People love to get their hate on with Hinske or . . . *shudder* . . . “Dinske” (thank you very much ESPN) and while he deserves all the taunting in the world for his hitting, I can really see Mick’s point in that some people can’t bring themselves to admit Eric is a fairly mediocre and adequate defender. I certainly wouldn’t put him at the failure of “46" the voters put him at. Must be 6-4-3 syndrome?.
Pistol - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 05:07 PM EST (#12167) #
Maybe there is some carry over from his hitting, but I'm certain my opinion that Hinske is a below average fielder (although improved from previous years) has nothing to do with how he hits.
_Jobu - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 05:12 PM EST (#12168) #
Do you really see him as below average Pistol or just perfectly average? I know his range sucks but you wouldn't even grant Hinske the dignity of saying he did what he was expected to do at 3b?
_Tyler - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 06:10 PM EST (#12169) #
I know his range sucks but you wouldn't even grant Hinske the dignity of saying he did what he was expected to do at 3b?

I don't think that the question Tangotiger was asking was whether a player did what was expected though-otherwise, I'd say Hinske was probably above average, based on my viewing, he threw away a hell of a lot fewer balls this year, which wasn't what I expected.

I don't really see your complaint with his score-46 would seem to indicate that he's a slightly below average defender. I'd have him a little lower, but I can live with that. I'd like to see the results posted by position, so I can get a better feel for what worked out to be average.

I also wonder whether there is as much dislike for him as you think. I'm told he's still quite popular with female Jays fans by someone who'd have a bit of insight into that. This board might not reflect that-it wouldn't surprise me if the women here were few and far between. His hitting and fielding aside, in my opinion he's the Jay who most consistently seems to give a shit-he's just bad. I don't think that there are many Hinske "haters" who wouldn't at least give him that. He hustles and runs out balls, and I appreciate that.

I find the lack of consensus on him a bit odd too, and I'd love to see the contents of the individual ballots on him. Any chance of seeing that Tango?
_Jobu - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 06:31 PM EST (#12170) #
http://www.bluejayscheerclub.com
I appreciate the comments but I was just specifically curious if Pistol saw Hinske as a below average fielder, not the Tangotiger findings. As in “if any replacement player were to play third would you consider Hinske to be a poorer fielder than that player?” Personally I wouldn’t go that far, but I’m curious as to your position.

I am also curious to know the level of Hinske-Haters in the survey, which is pretty much impossible to find. Although to give credit it was more of Mick’s idea first that brought it to my attention. I sure get sick of reading “Dinske” while I surf.

I’ve seen a lot of Hinske and a lot of 3b’s this year and I can’t really see how he’d deserve a “failing” rating of 46, I’d probably put him in the low 50's myself. Then again the agreement level would suggest that half the people put Hinske as phenomenal and slightly more than that just ripped him apart creating the 46. Unless Tangotiger could enlighten us, we might not know if 46 truly reflects people’s view of his defence, or the fact that more of his haters voted than his fanatics.
_Tyler - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 06:34 PM EST (#12171) #
I appreciate the comments but I was just specifically curious if Pistol saw Hinske as a below average fielder, not the Tangotiger findings. As in “if any replacement player were to play third would you consider Hinske to be a poorer fielder than that player?” Personally I wouldn’t go that far, but I’m curious as to your position.

I'm pretty sure a replacement level player is, by definition, below average. I don't see Pistol's comment as saying he thinks Hinske is below replacement level as a fielder either-he said Hinske is a below average fielder .
_Jobu - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 06:44 PM EST (#12172) #
http://www.bluejayscheerclub.com
Well that's why I asked Pistol. I'm curious to see how he interpreted it so we're on the same wavelength.

Sorry for being to liberal with the word "replacement", I didn't mean it in the value over replacement player kinda way, I should have just said "average fielder".

PS. The countdown begins tonight. NFH crosses into middle age in about 3 weeks.
_Tyler - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 06:50 PM EST (#12173) #
Hmm, sorry for intruding into what is so clearly a private conversation then. As the expression goes, up your butt Jobu.
_Jobu - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 06:53 PM EST (#12174) #
Class act, all the way ;)
_Tyler - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 07:03 PM EST (#12175) #
I was expecting a picture or something for my clever reference...
_Jobu - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 07:08 PM EST (#12176) #
http://www.bluejayscheerclub.com
I was expecting a picture or something for my clever reference...

and I didn't even make this!



Hey Mick, is there anymore to come of the All-Time Draft? Rob and I are anctious to kick some S and M butt.... unless they like that kinda thing, in which case we will not.
_Jobu - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 07:21 PM EST (#12177) #
I think Da Box is now home to four doctors:

Mr. Fordin
Mo' Phat
Dr. Zarco
and The Hillbilly Zombie."The Web's Most Amazing Resource!"
_Mick - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 08:03 PM EST (#12178) #
Jobu, not sure about the all-time draft. The resource I planned to use is no longer free OR easy and used to be both. Suggestions are welcome.

As for the list of "doctors" here, the roster has at least two M.D.s -- in me and Mike Denyszyn. Led to my nickname as a lad, and the title of my first regular newspaper column (albeit for the college daily, so it didn't really count) ... "Notes from the Doctor."

I'm a little saddened by the fact that what was a pretty intereting dicsussion about how perception of fielding is affected by other factors quickly degenerted into name-calling, even if it did more or less seem good-natured.
Pistol - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 09:22 PM EST (#12179) #
Do you really see him as below average Pistol or just perfectly average? I know his range sucks but you wouldn't even grant Hinske the dignity of saying he did what he was expected to do at 3b?

Yeah, I'd say below average. I'd probably have him in the bottom third of the 30 starting 3b (although probably on the upper end of that). It seems to me (which could be way off) there's too many ground balls down the line that he should get to & doesn't, and too few double plays turned. But he's at the point where he makes the routine play a routine play (as opposed to the routine play making you hold your breathe and hoping the throw is on time and on target his rookie year).

I would agree that his performance is what was expected defensively from him.

I think Hinske is good enough where you don't need to move him off of 3b defensively, but not good enough where defense is going to be a strength. If he hit like he did his rookie year you can accept his defense at 3B. If he hit like he did this year he's a liability for the team.
Pistol - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 09:23 PM EST (#12180) #
oops

They're off now?
Pistol - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 09:23 PM EST (#12181) #
test

Sorry for the problems....
_Mick - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 09:49 PM EST (#12182) #
here ...
_Jobu - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 09:55 PM EST (#12183) #
Italics be gone!!

Did you try whatifsports.com Mick? I'm not sure what the site is like myself but I've heard of it.

Wow! Real doctors with joke doctors....what a blog!
Mike Green - Saturday, November 27 2004 @ 10:40 PM EST (#12184) #
I had a few differences from the consensus:

1. Hinske's throwing accuracy was rated just below average; I gave him credit for his huge improvement in this regard over the year (I found the overall rating of Hinske fair however)
2. If Vernon Wells' speed is 75 and Hudson is 78, Rios would be about 97 (he was rated at 78). I really wouldn't rate any of them that highly, but Rios is by far the fastest player on the team once he gets going. You can really tell on the triples.

Overall, I found the consensus to be quite accurate.
_tangotiger - Sunday, November 28 2004 @ 12:43 AM EST (#12185) #
Hinske's numbers. Tool "1" was instincts, etc...

playerID ToolsID Rank CountOfRank
hinsker01 1 2 11
hinsker01 1 3 5
hinsker01 1 4 5
hinsker01 1 5 3
hinsker01 2 1 3
hinsker01 2 2 5
hinsker01 2 3 8
hinsker01 2 4 6
hinsker01 2 5 2
hinsker01 3 1 1
hinsker01 3 2 8
hinsker01 3 3 8
hinsker01 3 4 7
hinsker01 3 5 1
hinsker01 4 2 4
hinsker01 4 3 6
hinsker01 4 4 13
hinsker01 4 5 3
hinsker01 5 1 3
hinsker01 5 2 6
hinsker01 5 3 4
hinsker01 5 4 9
hinsker01 5 5 3
hinsker01 6 1 2
hinsker01 6 2 6
hinsker01 6 3 11
hinsker01 6 4 4
hinsker01 6 5 2
hinsker01 7 2 7
hinsker01 7 3 7
hinsker01 7 4 8
hinsker01 7 5 3

You might be bothered by the 1 and 5, but don't worry, as these kinda even out for average players. Here's Hudson:

playerID ToolsID Rank CountOfRank
hudsoor01 1 4 11
hudsoor01 1 5 16
hudsoor01 2 4 9
hudsoor01 2 5 18
hudsoor01 3 3 3
hudsoor01 3 4 10
hudsoor01 3 5 13
hudsoor01 4 3 1
hudsoor01 4 4 10
hudsoor01 4 5 16
hudsoor01 5 3 1
hudsoor01 5 4 10
hudsoor01 5 5 15
hudsoor01 6 3 5
hudsoor01 6 4 18
hudsoor01 6 5 3
hudsoor01 7 3 1
hudsoor01 7 4 14
hudsoor01 7 5 11

As long as people are equally biased, any kind of bad rating will equal out. That's why we can live with 3s for Hudson, because we know Reese would also get 3s.

We also hope hometown biases even out as well. That's alot easier to check.
_Voice of Reason - Monday, November 29 2004 @ 03:55 AM EST (#12186) #
[No. You know what? I'm not letting this kind of trash go. If you don't like it, tough. This comment has been deleted and if you don't like it, e-mail me at craig@battersbox.ca and we'll talk about it.]
_Mick - Monday, November 29 2004 @ 08:54 AM EST (#12187) #
One more ... if you post personal attack flames under an anonymous handle, you are ... well, you know the rest.
_Moffatt - Monday, November 29 2004 @ 09:23 AM EST (#12188) #
Moffat (IMHO) started as a fanboy/self-interested poster

Who is this Moffat character? He sounds like quite a cad.
_tangotiger - Monday, November 29 2004 @ 09:50 AM EST (#12189) #
Mike,

You make an interesting point on speed. The speed component is how fast is runner is running after the first few steps (the other speed category).

Take Wells and Rios. Say that after 1 sec, Wells has moved 25 feet, but Rios has moved only 10 feet. For "First Few Steps", Wells gets a big advantage. Say that between 1 and 2 sec, Wells has moved 40 feet, and Rios has moved 30 feet. And then, between 2 sec and 3 sec, Wells is still at 40, and Rios is at 45.

When it comes to "speed", from 1 sec to 3 sec, Wells has traveled 80 feet, but Rios has traveled 75, even though Rios has achieved a much higher top speed than Wells.

(All numbers for illustration only.)

I think the fans think of it in this way, and appropriately dock Rios down.

I can easily make the 7 fielding categories 15 or 20, by including Routes, and making speed the "once he's at top speed, how fast does he run" that would make more sense, etc.

Essentially, from the time the ball is hit, to the time the fielder throws the ball, 3 to 8 seconds have elapsed. Trying to break that down into 7 discrete catgories is a tough enough thing for fans to handle. I'm sure they could handle 15 categories, but I'm not sure how many would want to fill-in a survey to that effect.

Tom
Named For Hank - Monday, November 29 2004 @ 09:58 AM EST (#12190) #
I'm not entirely sure what I did to provoke that, benum, but if you could point me to my unreasonable, fanboyish, lame-ass writing, I'd appreciate it. COMN for e-mail.

As far as I understand it, I'm on the roster for photograps, humor and fan-related content. I have never pretended to be a serious analyst, nor have I participated in such discussions because I feel out of my depth. There are a few exceptions to this, but they are exactly that: few.

But please, if you'd care to discuss this with me rather than littering Batter's Box with it, e-mail me.
Mike Green - Monday, November 29 2004 @ 10:20 AM EST (#12191) #
Thanks, Tom, for your hard work and bringing all this information to us. Simplicity is a virtue, and I think that you've found a very good balance between simplicity and clarity in the design of your study.

My disagreements (they're not really criticisms) are about 2 tool ratings out of 7 tool ratings X 18 players or 126 tool ratings. Based on a sample of 26 ballots, that's really insignificant in the grand scheme of things.
_tangotiger - Monday, November 29 2004 @ 01:36 PM EST (#12192) #
Mike, I certainly didn't take your disagreements as anything but.

***

I too am a little hesistant in some numbers. I mean, check out Kaz Matsui. He is a very fast runner, but he was so horrible on the field for the Mets this year, that Mets fans docked him left and right, even in places he didn't deserve to be docked (speed rating of 59). They really can't stand him. Then again, no one can stand Roger Cedeno, and he got an 81 for speed.

There might simply be biases that have to be better controlled than what my study is showing.

***

At the same time, you have to wonder where the gap was lost between professional scouts seeing Matsui play in Japan, and amateur fans seeing Matsui play in NY. Were the pro scouts blind? Was Jeff Wilpon just too involved? Was this simply Matsui breaking down? The performance numbers certainly support NY fans, though maybe not to the drastic extent their observation would lead the rest of the non-NY world to believe.

***

If I had my druthers, I'd have an entire internet network of amateur fans filling in scouting reports, and not just for fielding, of all HS and college players. Problem there will be biases that I just wouldn't be able to control.

***

My short-term goal would be for PBP outfits to change their operation to record these things that I want:
- where was he positioned?
- how many steps does the fielder move at the point of contact before reaching the ball?
- did it go to his left or right?
- does he back hand it or not?
- does he short hop it, or let it come to him?
- does he double-pump?
- does he dive?
- how fast does he get up to make the throw?
- does the 1B scoop the ball?
- is he pulled off the bag?
- does he have to apply the tag with the glove?

I could go on and on. But, if these easily identifiable and recordable events were made, there wouldn't be a need for me to do these scouting reports. The numbers would do the job of painting what we see.

Baseball, unlike hockey, has enough start/stop time to be able to record all these events. Hard to believe, but I think hockey is a couple of years ahead of baseball in recording play-by-play. 10 years ago, hockey was light years behind. Hard to believe that this change is possible.
Mike Green - Monday, November 29 2004 @ 02:14 PM EST (#12193) #
I love it. The first baseman's scooping percentage would tell me a lot more than the number of putouts he recorded.

My sense is that the recording of this type of information will start with a Project Scoresheet kind of initiative. Maybe it'll start with some "insane" season ticket-holder simply recording much of this information on a scoresheet, and it being digitized afterwords. Anyways, if something formal gets started, please e-mail me. COMN.
The 2004 Scouting Report, By the Fans, For the Fans | 38 comments | Create New Account
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