The Blue Jays will be selecting 6th in the 2005 Draft next summer. Some of the top candidates the Jays may select were discussed previously.
Previously, Mike Moffatt looked at the history of the 6th pick in the draft going back until 1965.
While the Jays will be selecting 6th in the draft I wanted to take a broader look at the players selected in previous drafts. So I went back, using The Baseball Cube as a resource, and looked at the players drafted from pick 6 through pick 15 from the ten drafts in the 90s.There were a few reasons I chose to do this.
* The Jays will have their choice from every player in the draft, except the top 5 players, when they select.
* Generally, there is somewhat of a consensus to who the top picks are in a draft, so 6-15 would be a reasonable pool that the Jays are selecting from.
* The period from 1990-1999 gave me 100 players to look at.
* Drafts from 2000-2004 are still a bit too early to know what to expect out of each player drafted.
Below is a listing of picks 6-15 of the ten drafts between 1990-1999. 'Level' refers to the highest level that the player achieved in their pro career (if it's blank they didn't have a pro career). All other columns should be self explanatory.
Year Pick Player Pos. Level MLB Exp 1999 6 Josh Girdley P A 1999 7 Kyle Snyder P MLB 2003-2003 1999 8 Bobby Bradley P AA 1999 9 Barry Zito P MLB 2000-2004 1999 10 Ben Sheets P MLB 2001-2004 1999 11 R Christianson C AAA 1999 12 Brett Myers P MLB 2002-2004 1999 13 Mike Paradis P AAA 1999 14 Ty Howington P AA 1999 15 Jason Stumm P AA Year Pick Player Pos. Level MLB Exp 1998 6 Ryan Mills P AAA 1998 7 Austin Kearns OF MLB 2002-2004 1998 8 Felipe Lopez 3B MLB 2001-2004 1998 9 Sean Burroughs 3B MLB 2002-2004 1998 10 Carlos Pena 1B MLB 2001-2004 1998 11 Josh McKinley IF AA 1998 12 Adam Everett SS MLB 2001-2004 1998 13 J.M. Gold P A 1998 14 Jeff Weaver P MLB 1999-2004 1998 15 Clint Johnston 1B A Year Pick Player Pos. Level MLB Exp 1997 6 Geoff Goetz P AA 1997 7 Dan Reichert P MLB 1999-2003 1997 8 J.J. Davis 1B-P MLB 2002-2004 1997 9 Michael Cuddyer SS MLB 2002-2004 1997 10 Jon Garland P MLB 2000-2004 1997 11 Chris Enochs P AAA 1997 12 Aaron Akin P 1997 13 Kyle Peterson P MLB 1999-2001 1997 14 Brandon Larson SS MLB 2001-2004 1997 15 Jason Dellaero SS MLB 1999-1999 Year Pick Player Pos. Level MLB Exp 1996 6 Seth Greisinger P MLB 1998-2004 1996 7 Matt White P AAA 1996 8 Chad Green OF AAA 1996 9 Mark Kotsay OF MLB 1997-2004 1996 10 Eric Chavez 3B MLB 1998-2004 1996 11 Adam Eaton P MLB 2000-2004 1996 12 Bobby Seay P MLB 2001-2004 1996 13 Robert Stratton OF AAA - 1996 14 Dermal Brown OF College 1996 15 Matt Halloran SS Year Pick Player Pos. Level MLB Exp 1995 6 Jaime Jones OF AAA 1995 7 Jon Johnson P MLB 1998-2003 1995 8 Todd Helton 1B-P MLB 1997-2004 1995 9 Geoff Jenkins OF MLB 1998-2004 1995 10 Chad Hermansen SS MLB 1999-2004 1995 11 Mike Drumright P AAA 1995 12 Matt Morris P MLB 1997-2004 1995 13 Mark Redman P MLB 1999-2004 1995 14 Reggie Taylor OF MLB 2000-2003 1995 15 Andy Yount P A Year Pick Player Pos. Level MLB Exp 1994 6 M. Christensen OF MLB 1999-2002 1994 7 Doug Million P 1994 8 Todd Walker 2B MLB 1996-2004 1994 9 C.J. Nitkowski P MLB 1995-2004 1994 10 Jaret Wright P MLB 1997-2004 1994 11 Mark Farris SS 1994 12 N Garciaparra SS MLB 1996-2004 1994 13 Paul Konerko C MLB 1997-2004 1994 14 Jason Varitek OF MLB 1997-2004 1994 15 Jayson Peterson P Year Pick Player Pos. Level MLB Exp 1993 6 S. Soderstrom P MLB 1996-1996 1993 7 Trot Nixon OF MLB 1996-2004 1993 8 Kirk Presley P 1993 9 Matt Brunson SS 1993 10 B. Kieschnick OF-P MLB 1996-2004 1993 11 Daron Kirkreit P 1993 12 Billy Wagner P MLB 1995-2004 1993 13 Matt Drews P AAA 1993 14 Derrek Lee 1B MLB 1997-2004 1993 15 Chris Carpenter P MLB 1997-2004 Year Pick Player Pos. Level MLB Exp 1992 6 Derek Jeter SS MLB 1995-2004 1992 7 Calvin Murray OF MLB 1999-2004 1992 8 Pete Janicki P 1992 9 Preston Wilson SS MLB 1998-2004 1992 10 Michael Tucker SS MLB 1995-2004 1992 11 Derek Wallace P MLB 1996-1999 1992 12 Kenny Felder OF 1992 13 Chad McConnell OF 1992 14 Ron Villone P MLB 1995-2004 1992 15 Sean Lowe P MLB 1997-2003 Year Pick Player Pos. Level MLB Exp 1991 6 John Burke P MLB 1996-1997 1991 7 Joe Vitiello OF-1B MLB 1995-2003 1991 8 Joey Hamilton P MLB 1994-2003 1991 9 Mark Smith OF MLB 1994-2003 1991 10 Tyler Green P MLB 1993-1998 1991 11 Shawn Estes P MLB 1995-2004 1991 12 Doug Glanville OF MLB 1996-2004 1991 13 Manny Ramirez 3B-OF MLB 1993-2004 1991 14 Cliff Floyd 1B MLB 1993-2004 1991 15 Tyrone Hill P Year Pick Player Pos. Level MLB Exp 1990 6 Marc Newfield 1B MLB 1993-1998 1990 7 Dan Wilson C MLB 1992-2004 1990 8 Tim Costo SS MLB 1992-1993 1990 9 Ron Walden P 1990 10 Carl Everett OF MLB 1993-2004 1990 11 Shane Andrews 3B MLB 1995-2002 1990 12 Todd Ritchie P MLB 1997-2004 1990 13 Donovan Osborne P MLB 1992-2004 1990 14 Todd Van Poppel P MLB 1991-2004 1990 15 Adam Hyzdu OF MLB 2000-2004
As you can see, even with the 6th pick in the draft there's still a lot of hit or miss in the early parts of round 1.
Based on my personal rankings there were 8 top players selected in these 100 picks. HS notes that the players were selected out of high school and C notes that the players were drafted out of college:
Top TierChavez - HS
Garciaparra - C
Helton - C
Jeter - HS
Ramirez - HS
Sheets - C
Wagner - C
Zito - C
Hitters - 5 (3 HS, 2 C)
Pitchers - 3 (0 HS, 3 C)
After those top 8 there was a next tier of above average players that had 9 players in it:
Above AverageEverett - HS
Floyd - HS
Konerko - HS
Lee, D - HS
Morris - C
Nixon - HS
Varitek - C
Weaver - C
Wilson, Pr - HS
Hitters - 7 (6 HS, 1 C)
Pitchers - 2 (0 HS, 2 C)
And after that there was a mixed bag of about 10 players that are average to above average:
Solid PlayersCarpenter - HS
Eaton - HS
Jenkins - C
Kearns - HS
Kotsay - C
Myers, B - HS
Nixon - HS
Redman - C
Walker, T - C
Wright, J - HS
Hitters - 5 (2 HS, 3 C)
Pitchers - 5 (4 HS, 1 C)
(Side Note - These rankings were not made on any quantitative analysis, it's simply my perception of the players. There could certainly be arguments that certain players aren't in the appropriate group, or not included in a group at all.)
Of the 100 players picked from 6-15 there were 27 players that were at least solid, 17 that were at least above average, and 8 players that were All Star caliber players.
In total of the 100 players, 67 made the majors for at least a cup of coffee.
So with the 6th pick in the draft the Jays, assuming average drafting ability, have roughly a:
* 1 in 10 chance of drafting an All Star level player
* 2 in 10 chance of drafting at least an above average player
* 3 in 10 chance of drafing at least a solid player
* 7 in 10 chance of drafting a player that will at least make the majors
College vs. High SchoolBreaking things out by whether a player was drafted out of college or high school for the 27 solid or better players looks like this:
Note:
CP= College pitchersCH = College hitters
HSP = High School hitters
HSH = High School hitters
> Ave = At least average
> AA = At least above average
> AS = At least All Star level
Total = number of players drafted
Draft CP CH HSP HSH Total > Ave 6 6 4 11 27 Total 28 22 23 27 100 % 21% 27% 17% 41% 27%
Among players that were at least average players the most success came from hitters drafted out of high school and the least success came from high school pitchers.
Draft CP CH HSP HSH Total > AA 5 3 0 9 17 Total 28 22 23 27 100 % 18% 14% 0% 33% 17%
For above average players high school hitters still show the best success rate, and high school pitchers show no success rate. College players have roughly the same success as the total player pool.
Draft CP CH HSP HSH Total > AS 3 2 0 3 8 Total 28 22 23 27 100 % 11% 9% 0% 11% 8%
Going up to the All Star level players starts to even out among college players and high school hitters - each having about a 10% success rate.
Based on the 10 drafts of the 90s, from picks 6-15, there's:
* Roughly an equal chance of getting an All Star player from college players and high school hitters.
* Very little success with drafting high school pitchers.
* Most success drafting high school hitters.
The Jays have generally shied away from drafting high school players, especially in the early rounds. However, based on this limited study there's been recent success with drafting high school hitters in the early part of the first round.
On the other hand avoiding high school pitchers in the early parts of round one seems like a sound strategy.
While the Jays have yet to draft a high school player in the early rounds in the JP draft era, they have indicated that they would be willing to draft 'the right player' if the opportunity presented itself.
Obviously, however, each draft class is unique. Some drafts will have stronger players among college players while others will be strong in high school players. So the trends of the past decade won't necessarily hold up in a particular year.
Baseball America projected the top 10 back in October. The top of the list were 2 high school players - Justin Upton and Cameron Maybin, followed by 8 college players. Based on that it appears that the Jays will wind up with a college player at their pick at #6.
Regardless of college or high school, or pitchers or hitters, it's less than 50/50 to get a solid player with a pick as high as #6 in the draft.
