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One flash of light
but no smoking pistol


Standings as of May 2nd, 2005

1. Baltimore    17- 7 .708        144 RS/113 RA
2. Toronto      14-12 .538 4.0 GB 130 RS/124 RA
2. Boston       13-11 .542 4.0 GB 136 RS/109 RA
4. New York     10-15 .400 7.5 GB 129 RS/137 RA
5. Tampa Bay     8-17 .320 9.5 GB 111 RS/160 RA
Since 95% of the readers here follow the AL East closer than any other division, it's hard to come up with things you might not know. So instead of telling you what happened in games you probably watched, I thought it would be interesting to compare the 5 teams position by position. Here we go.

Note: The statistics contained in this section were as of the morning of May 1st, as that is when most of this was written. The VORP (value over replacement position) data comes from Baseball Prospectus.

Starters

CATCHER                    AVG/ OBP/ SLG SB VORP
1. Javy Lopez       (BAL) .338/.382/.575  0 11.6
2. Jason Varitek    (BOS) .394/.541/.616  0 10.9
3. Gregg Zaun       (TOR) .299/.410/.537  0 10.1
4. Toby Hall        (TAM) .317/.359/.350  0  3.8
5. Jorge Posada     (NYY) .240/.329/.320  0  1.9
Poor Gregg Zaun. Although he's been the third best catcher in baseball so far, he's only the third best in the division, as Lopez and Varitek also call the AL East home. On the bright side for the Jays, at least they're not paying Zaun a fortune.

Who would have thought that Jorge Posada would be the worst performing starting catcher in the AL East?

FIRST BASE                 AVG/ OBP/ SLG SB VORP
1. Eric Hinske      (TOR) .291/.371/.456  2  5.4
2. Travis Lee       (TAM) .288/.365/.364  1  2.1
3. Kevin Millar     (BOS) .253/.394/.307  0  1.3
4. Tino Martinez    (NYY) .246/.343/.377  0  1.2
5. Rafael Palmeiro  (BAL) .247/.298/.325  1 -1.0
That's right: Eric Hinske has been the best first baseman in the AL East. It hasn't even been close. Potential future hall-of-famer Rafael Palmeiro has been worse than replacement level so far this season. Ouch!

SECOND BASE                AVG/ OBP/ SLG SB VORP
1. Brian Roberts    (BAL) .375/.455/.719 10 23.3
2. Jorge Cantu      (TAM) .274/.278/.400  0  1.3
3. Orlando Hudson   (TOR) .280/.317/.366  0  1.1
4. Tony Womack      (NYY) .287/.337/.338  2  0.9
5. Mark Bellhorn    (BOS) .229/.325/.357  1  0.8
If you hadn't heard, Barry Bonds is playing second base for Baltimore under an assumed name. There's no other possible explanation. Every other second baseman in the league has been playing at mere-mortal level, and there's been little difference between them.

When discussing a journeyman player, you often hear that he "isn't a championship quality first baseman". I think it's a pretty silly distinction; is Tony Womack really a championship quality second baseman? How about the 2005 version of Tino Martinez at first? But I don't think there are too many people out there that would say the Yankees aren't a championship caliber team. You don't have to be great at every position; you can carry a guy like Shane Spencer in left and still win championships. In fact, I would say that every team has at least one player the fans would consider not to be of "championship quality". Except the Red Sox. They're freaks.

SHORTSTOP                  AVG/ OBP/ SLG SB VORP
1. Miguel Tejada    (BAL) .347/.394/.684  0 17.2
2. Derek Jeter      (NYY) .349/.473/.477  2 13.6
3. Julio Lugo       (TAM) .281/.324/.354  8  5.9
4. Edgar Renteria   (BOS) .228/.283/.359  1  0.8
5. Russ Adams       (TOR) .214/.290/.321  1  0.0
The only real surprise here is the complete bust that has been Edgar Renteria. I have to accept responsibility for this as I overdrafted him in the BBFL. I still think he'll come back and have a great season, but I'm not sure what I'm basing that on.

Russ Adams has been around the quality of a replacement level shortstop which shouldn't be too surprising as that's what he is. He'll get better, though.

THIRD BASE                 AVG/ OBP/ SLG SB VORP
1. Alex Rodriguez   (NYY) .306/.352/.633  2 11.7
2. Melvin Mora      (BAL) .306/.361/.500  2  8.7
3. Corey Koskie     (TOR) .253/.327/.407  0  2.3
4. Alex Gonzalez    (TAM) .276/.333/.397  0  2.1
5. Bill Mueller     (BOS) .255/.397/.309  0  1.5
For all the worrying about Corey Koskie around these parts, he's around the median when it comes to AL East third basemen.

I wonder how much of A-Rods 11.7 VORP is due to that one big game last week?

RIGHTFIELD                 AVG/ OBP/ SLG SB VORP
1. Gary Sheffield   (NYY) .344/.404/.478  2 10.1
2. Trot Nixon       (BOS) .281/.429/.474  0  6.2
3. Aubrey Huff      (TAM) .271/.350/.412  2  4.7
4. Sammy Sosa       (BAL) .281/.317/.469  1  4.5
5. Alexis Rios      (TOR) .309/.326/.444  2  2.8
Rightfield is a surprisingly weak position in the AL East, particularly since Sammy Sosa has stopped taking pitches. A .317 on-base percentage while batting .281? This can't be the same player we saw 5-10 years ago. Anyhow, he's not the only player on this list with a hollow batting average, as Jays fans know too well.

CENTERFIELD                AVG/ OBP/ SLG SB VORP
1. Johnny Damon     (BOS) .365/.404/.479  4 11.2
2. Luis Matos       (BAL) .319/.402/.420  7  7.2
3. Alex Sanchez     (TAM) .275/.310/.375  1  1.1
4. Bernie Williams  (NYY) .244/.330/.317  1  0.6
5. Vernon Wells     (TOR) .200/.257/.389  0 -2.3
Right now Vernon Wells is the worst player in the American League East. Double ouch!

Alex Sanchez hasn't been all that bad filling in for the injured Rocco Baldelli. Like other players we've mentioned his batting average is pretty hollow, so should it drop at all, he'll be on the wrong side of replacement level.

LEFTFIELD                  AVG/ OBP/ SLG SB VORP
1. Manny Ramirez    (BOS) .274/.386/.607  1 11.1
2. Carl Crawford    (TAM) .262/.304/.437  6  4.9
3. Hideki Matsui    (NYY) .261/.343/.432  0  4.4
4. Frank Catalanotto(TOR) .265/.320/.382  0  1.1
5. Larry Bigbie     (BAL) .268/.305/.357  1  0.5
If you combined Frankie Cat and Reed Johnson, they'd be right around the level of Crawford and Matsui. None of these guys are off to an exceptionally hot start. Manny's numbers are excellent, but they're not too different than what he's done over the last few seasons.

DESIGNATED HITTER          AVG/ OBP/ SLG SB VORP
1. Shea Hillenbrand (TOR) .396/.427/.542  0 13.4
2. David Ortiz      (BOS) .256/.306/.556  0  6.4
3. Josh Phelps      (TAM) .290/.364/.406  0  4.3
4. Jason Giambi     (NYY) .231/.398/.385  0  4.0
5. Jay Gibbons      (BAL) .232/.280/.420  0  0.5
Shea Hillenbrand is mopping the floor with the competition, thanks to his flirting with .400 all month. Josh Phelps is quietly putting together some decent numbers in Tampa, though he's not hitting for a whole lot of power. Has his swing changed at all this year?

Jay Gibbons has really fallen off of a cliff.

Bench Players

CATCHER                    AVG/ OBP/ SLG SB VORP
1. Charles Johnson  (TAM) .235/.409/.353  0  1.4
2. Doug Mirabelli   (BOS) .188/.316/.375  0  0.4
3. John Flaherty    (NYY) .154/.214/.231  0 -0.8
4. Geronimo Gil     (BAL) .241/.241/.276  0 -0.9
5. Greg Myers       (TOR) .083/.154/.083  0 -1.8
That's right kids: If your backup catcher plays at replacement level, you're doing fine. Unfortunately Greg Myers wasn't and he's since been replaced by Ken Huckaby.

None of these guys have performed well, though Charles Johnson's .409 on-base relative to a .353 slugging and a .235 batting average is interesting.

CORNER BAT                 AVG/ OBP/ SLG SB VORP
1. Eddie Perez      (TAM) .344/.400/.656  0  4.7 (1B)
2. Ruben Sierra     (NYY) .269/.296/.692  0  3.1 (DH)
3. Kevin Youkilis   (BOS) .571/.625/.714  0  2.2 (3B)
4. Frank Menechino  (TOR) .167/.348/.167  0 -1.0 (DH)
5. B.J. Surhoff     (BAL) .200/.200/.371  0 -1.5 (LF)
The position in brackets is the position at which the player has played the most games. Kevin Youkilis has had all of 8 plate appearances, which explains how he can have a line like that and still only be 3rd in VORP. Eddie Perez is putting up some big numbers acting as Travis Lee's caddy. Also impressive is Ruben Sierra's .692 slugging percentage.

Father time has not been kind to B.J. Surhoff.

UTILITY INFIELDER          AVG/ OBP/ SLG SB VORP
1. Nick Green       (TAM) .324/.375/.459  0  3.2 (3B)
2. Chris Gomez      (BAL) .500/.571/.500  1  2.4 (1B)
3. John McDonald    (TOR) .308/.321/.346  1  1.0 (SS)
4. Rey Sanchez      (NYY) .364/.417/.364  0  0.8 (2B)
5. Ramon Vazquez    (BOS) .194/.219/.258  0 -2.2 (3B)
You can tell which infield position each team is weakest at by examining which position their utility infielder has played the most at.

Chris Gomez is back to being a 1st baseman. Way to go, Chris! I don't think those numbers are sustainable. As a matter of fact, neither are John McDonald's numbers.

How much longer will it be until Nick Green and not Alex Gonzalez, is getting the bulk of the starts at 3rd?

FOURTH OUTFIELDER          AVG/ OBP/ SLG SB VORP
1. Reed Johnson     (TOR) .279/.415/.419  0  2.7 (LF)
2. Joey Gathright   (TAM) .333/.391/.476  3  2.6 (CF)
3. Jay Payton       (BOS) .235/.250/.412  0 -0.3 (RF)
4. David Newhan     (BAL) .200/.200/.267  1 -0.8 (CF)
5. Bubba Crosby     (NYY) .167/.231/.167  0 -1.1 (CF)
Reed Johnson is one of the best fourth outfielders in baseball, which is why I cringe every time I hear somebody suggest that the Blue Jays trade him.

Bernie Williams' troubles in center don't look too bad when you compare him to his understudy.

The End

With Lopez, Mora, Tejada, and Roberts bashing the ball, it's no surprise that the Orioles are scoring so many runs. The Jays are scoring their fair share as well. Despite the many complaints we've had, nobody on the team is performing terribly save Vernon Wells.

Your thoughts?

Examining the Bats | 16 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Pistol - Monday, May 02 2005 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#114853) #
ARod: .311/.372/.631 - YTD stats
ARod: .286/.352/.531 - YTD without 3 HR game
Mike Green - Monday, May 02 2005 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#114854) #
Basically, if you take 90 points off Hillenbrand's batting average and give it to Wells, you've got a pretty good estimate of what this team can do offensively over the long haul.

Rios is now at .330/.347/.466, which will play.
3RunHomer - Monday, May 02 2005 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#114856) #
God is punishing the Yankees for making the greatest shortstop of our generation a thirdbaseman.

Melvin Mora is amazing. He and Tejada can push the Os a long way if the other guys are at least average.
alsiem - Monday, May 02 2005 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#114862) #
I was busily working my fantasy roster during my work day and I made a terrible mistake. At the office we had an autodraft and I ended up with Mora. For some reason, I made a mental transition and decided I had Matos as my thirdbase man. I dumped him and everytime I see highlights of Mora I cringe at my stupidity. Never multitask while working on your fantasy roster.
Jonny German - Monday, May 02 2005 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#114871) #
On the other hand, I drafted Matos intentionally and I've been very happy with him... of course, that was in the 25th round of the 500-player deep BBFL.
dp - Monday, May 02 2005 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#114873) #
Very nice piece. If you want to feel better about Renteria, you should know the only reason he was available is because I kept Jaret Wright instead...

I was thinking last night, if something unrealistic happens and the Yanks decide to dismantle/rebuild in a year, would you try and land A-Rod?

Adams is killing me in BBFL. I thought he had blazing speed when he was drafted, but he isn't running...or hitting...and I thought this was the year the Jays started stealing bases...

Watching the series this weekend with the Yankee broadcasters sucked. They knew nothing about the Jays. This is typical, and really frustrating...
Jacko - Monday, May 02 2005 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#114874) #
The Orioles have been good, but they haven't been 17-7 good. With 144 RS and 113 RA, they should be around 15-9. Which means they are either winning a lot of close games, or getting blown out when they lose.

Expect them to hit a bit of a losing skid as their luck runs out...
Pistol - Monday, May 02 2005 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#114885) #
" if something unrealistic happens and the Yanks decide to dismantle/rebuild in a year, would you try and land A-Rod?"

I suspect that the Yanks wouldn't try to trade their youngest and best player.
dp - Monday, May 02 2005 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#114887) #
Yeah, but the Yanks have been known to respond irrationally to media criticsm. And for some reason, the locals hate A-Rod. It's very unlikely. But A-Rod's also one of the only chips the Yanks have that could bring something in return if they do decide to rebuild. They never learned that lesson in the late '80s/early '90s, and I'm not expecting them to learn it now...
Coach - Monday, May 02 2005 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#114893) #
Right now Vernon Wells is the worst player in the American League East.

Which points out yet again just how early it is. Though Roberts and the Shea-Hey Kid have excellent chances to turn their hot starts into career years, I don't expect either to be as valuable as V-Dub over the next five months. In fact, I'd offer Hillenbrand for Wells straight up in BBFL if it didn't leave me without a 3B.

Zaun is also overachieving early, but the Jays, whose VORP/$ looks impressive, can expect improvement at several positions: SS, LF, 3B and most of all, CF.

Great stuff as always, Mike.
Mark - Monday, May 02 2005 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#114894) #
This is funny, I drafted Matos and ended up trading him (with others) for Mora.
John Northey - Monday, May 02 2005 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#114897) #
A-Rod in Toronto? I'd jump all over that if I was JP, attitude issues or not. The Yanks want young pitching, a young middle infielder or two, and some vetern outfield talent? Take it!

To be honest though, I don't see it happening anytime soon. Of course, who saw Roger Clemens coming here either? Sigh. Those were the days, when we still thought of the Jays as a large market team which was just down on its luck.
earlweaverfan - Monday, May 02 2005 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#114920) #
Can someone please tell me - why is it that we should accept from any player (even vdub) that he cannot get off to a better-than-awful start, every year without fail? Slumps I can understand; a failure to start the season ready to play - that just seems like laziness or poor preparation to me. He knows that he has this tendency. He knows that he fell way off last year. Surely he would come to spring training prepared!?!?

Does anyone have any ideas to help him overcome this habit?
Should the Jays get him a pitching machine and force him to start his own spring training one month earlier than everyone else? Should the Jays pretend to pay him for every game where he pretends to swing the bat?

What can we do about it?
Mike Green - Monday, May 02 2005 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#114924) #
Earlweaverfan,

Harold Baines was a slow starter over his career, but played well into his 40s despite significant knee injuries. I seriously doubt that sloth has anything to do with Vernon's April struggles or Harold's.
Magpie - Monday, May 02 2005 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#114929) #
Surely he would come to spring training prepared!?!?

Maybe he's the Earl Weaver of centre fielders. Weaver's entire team used to play like this in April...

Actually, Wells is very aware of his April problems, and actually made a special effort to avoid them this year. See Wells Looking Forward to May

"Luckily, we've played good baseball around me, so it's been easier to deal with," Wells said. "One of these days I'm going to figure it out. Hopefully, before I retire."

jayfanbrooklyn - Monday, May 02 2005 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#114941) #
well, the locals were griping about A-Rod till his recent streak of hitting. I think boston fans hate him more by a large mile. I hate him because the mets couldn't get him (ok, maybe I should hate the mets). They were the worst nyc sports owners (until their dealings this past offseason and cablevision one upping their stupidity yet again) and instead got (deep breath) roberto alomar and mo vaughn. And Jose Reyes, who last year made me wince with his unique running style (obviously he hadn't full recovered from his hamstring and ankle injuries) and now makes me wince with routinely getting into an 0-2 or 1-2 count.

but met bashing aside, that would be awesome for the jays but I am wondering where the limit is for the yankee payroll. Even with roger communication allowing for more spending JP will obviously will expect the yankees to pick up a good chunk of the contract. The yanks did say there didn't wanna pay for Beltran because he was too expensive(though they probably felt they would rather put the money next offseason on matsui and zito) and they are going to be footing the bill for a new stadium.
They probably would rather trade giambi but nobody cept beane would be serious.

Lets think of what the jays would have to give up.
The yanks would probably want either chacin or lilly (and maybe bush) , a relief pitcher (walker, league and/or a couple of prospects) and a bat (rios maybe, someone else hopefuly)

maybe I'm overpricing a-rod. Either way, I would say the only one who I wouldn't deal would be chacin, and would rather not deal rios. I haven't seen walker pitch so I could only go by his record (went to the friday game instead of the sunday game and the jays didnt need him then)
Examining the Bats | 16 comments | Create New Account
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