Each of the 30 major league teams had a scouting director who was in charge of running the show - discussing pro and cons of players among the 'scouts', ranking players, and ultimately pulling the trigger on the picks.
I was the Blue Jay scouting director.
Predraft work:
Heading into the draft most of the discussion was focused on the first pick, mostly because the 2nd pick was so far away that it was really hard to guess who would be around. That and if you discussed who you liked with later picks there was a good chance you'd be pointing out to other teams who the good players were (or at least the players you wanted).
Part of the process of coming up with the list, at least in my mind in running the mock draft, was to be as realistic as possible. So because of that I felt that a HS player would only be taken by the Jays that high if he was a 'no-brainer' pick. I didn't feel that Maybin quite fit that, so I dropped him from consideration, although many 'scouts' thought Maybin should have been in the top 6. The other adjustment that was made was to move Romero up over Pelfrey based on signability - Pelfrey is a Boras client and we didn't want to deal with that hassle when the two pitchers were very similar.
After some discussion a top 6 list was finalized and looked like this heading into the mock draft:
1 Upton 2 Gordon 3 Zimmerman 4 Braun 5 Romero 6 Tulowitzki
The top 5 teams of the draft would decide who the Jays would take at the 6th pick.
For the final three selections (86, 116, 146) I focused solely on college players. To get a feel for what players might be available at that point I consulted with the Baseball America Top 200 prospects and the top 181 prospects over at Brewers Fan.net. While I used both lists I relied a little more on BA's list.
Any college players that were in the BA top 50 I assumed that I had no shot at drafting at #86. So from there I ended up with approximately 30 pitchers and approximately 20 hitters to focus on.
From there I went to my spreadsheet of college stats to find players I liked. I wrote about 7 pitchers I liked and 7 hitters that I liked in earlier draft threads. These 14 players would be among the players that I was going to target during the mock draft. My concern was that a lot of these players wouldn't even make it to the Jays third round pick. Chase Headley, for example, was #128 on BA's list, but from the chatter on Sickels' site it seemed like he might not even make it out of the sandwich picks.
Since my focus was entirely on college players I ended up with a draft board of 75 pitchers and 42 hitters for a total of 117 players. While HS players weren't on the draft board I did have a separate ranking ready in case there were any that dropped considerably - although I didn't anticipate that happening. I expected that at least 30 high school players would be taken prior to the third round pick.
As with most drafts, picks are made on a 'best available' basis. However, when going over the list of hitters and pitchers there were considerably more pitchers on the draft board (75 vs 42) and of those players I had 16 pitchers to just 6 hitters that I really liked. Given that, and the Jays need for hitting more than pitching at this point, I anticpated having to perhaps reach a little bit in the third round to land a hitter I liked. In the case that the first pick was Romero it would be almost certain that the 3rd round pick was a hitter - hopefully Eli Iorg the OF from Tennessee or Brian Pettway the 1B/OF from Mississippi. If I stuck to the draft board there was a possibility of ending up with 4 pitchers.
Draft Day
Barring an injury to the top 6 players the draft board wasn't going to change, so I checked on the college games in the College World Series to see how some pitchers fared. Nothing seemed unusual. Ricky Romero had one of his worst starts of the year against Arizona - 6 runs, 4 earned in 6 innings with 3 Ks, 2 BBs, and 2 HRs allowed. Kevin Slowey outpitched Mike Pelfrey on Friday night - there's no chance Slowey will make it to the third round now. Matt Maloney, a 4th round target, pitched decently against Oklahoma. One of my 5th round targets, John Meloan of Arizona, pitched pretty well against Missouri.
From there I ate breakfast (mmmm, blueberry pancakes), went to do some laundry (have to wash the softball uniform - game tomorrow!), and grabbed groceries in the middle of laundry (no cookies left??). This is normal for a scouting director on draft day, right?
The draft started at 1pm CST time. Sadly I had to double check to see that was indeed 2pm EST.
And we're off! Not surprisingly, Upton and Gordon went 1-2 to the Snakes and Royals. The Mariners followed the game plan and took Troy Tulowitzki. The Nationals then took Jeff Clement in the first surprise of the draft. The Brewers followed up that pick with Mike Pelfrey.
The draft board told me to select Ryan Zimmerman, so I entered 'The Blue Jays select Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Virginia' in the message field and hit submit. Sickels then confirmed the pick and pats on the back were made all around the room. A look at Zimmerman's stats:
Ryan Zimmerman, 3b, Virginia 6'3", 210 lbs, 9/28/84 Bats: R - Throws: R Baseball America Rank: 9 Year ABs Ave Obp Slg BB K 2005 228 0.399 0.474 0.592 29 13 2004 249 0.361 0.395 0.454 11 18 2003 221 0.308 0.340 0.376 11 28
Zimmerman really turned the corner last summer as he was the best hitter on Team USA, and then continued that this season. He also reportedly has gold glove level defense at 3B. And one thing I hadn't noticed until now was that he rarely strikes out. He's also one of the youngest college players in the draft.
Here's how the first round played out:
First Round 1. Diamondbacks Justin Upton, SS, Great Bridge HS 2. Royals Alex Gordon, 3B, Nebraska 3. Mariners Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Long Beach St 4. Nationals Jeff Clement, C, USC 5. Brewers Mike Pelfrey, RHP, Wichita St 6. Blue Jays Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Virginia 7. Rockies Luke Hochevar, RHP, Tennessee 8. Devil Rays Ricky Romero, LHP, Cal St Fullerton 9. Mets Cameron Maybin, OF, TC Roberson HS 10. Tigers Craig Hansen, RHP, St John's 11. Pirates Andrew McCutchen, OF, Fort Meade HS 12. Reds Ryan Braun, 3B, Miami 13. Orioles Mark Pawelek, LHP, Springville HS 14. Indians C.J. Henry, ss, Putnam City HS 15. White Sox Wade Townsend, RHP, Rice 16. Marlins Cesar Carrillo, RHP, Miami 17. Yankees Chris Volstad, RHP, PB Gardens HS 18. Padres Brian Bogusevic, LHP/OF, Tulane 19. Rangers Jay Bruce, OF, West Brook HS 20. Cubs Jacoby Ellsbury, OF Oregon St 21. Athletics John Drennen, Rancho Bernardo HS (Beane throws chair) 22. Marlins Michael Bowden, RHP, Waubonsie Valley HS 23. Red Sox Trevor Crowe, OF, University of Arizona 24. Astros Lance Broadway, RHP, TCU 25. Twins Matt Torra, RHP, UMass 26. Red Sox Colby Rasmus, OF, Phenix City, Alabama 27. Braves Cliff Pennington, SS, Texas A&M 28. Cardinals Tyler Greene, SS, Georgia Tech 29. Marlins Taylor Teagarden, C, Texas 30. Cardinals Cesar Ramos, LHP, Long Beach St
The third round pick was at #86 so there was a lot of time on my hands after the Zimmerman pick.
As I mentioned earlier there were 14 players that I was focused on for the third round pick. I figured they were realistic options as the highest ranked player (using BA) was Eli Iorg at 75.
From pick 55 to 64 six of those fourteen players were taken (Iorg, Headley, Costanzo, Owings, Pettway, Slowey). I guess I'm not the only one looking at stats.
Midway through round 2 I wrote down about ten names that I was interested in for the pick at #86. For awhile none of those players were taken. Then at the end of the second round pitchers Chris Mason and Matt Garza, my two highest ranked pitchers, went off the board.
That left me with three players that I wanted with the third rounder (anyone else I would have considered a reach): Matt Green, the pitcher from LA-Monroe, Garrett Olson, the lefty from Cal Poly, and Clete Thomas the Auburn OF.
The third round began and as each pick was made I got a little more excited that I'd get one of those three. Finally the Brewers picked and I was left with all three players. I quickly wrote in Matt Green's name, hit submit and pumped my fist knowing I got a player I wanted. He's a little old, but he's certainly a power pitcher with ideal size and worth a shot in the third round. Check out the stats:
Matt Green, Lousiana-Monroe RHP, 6'4", 185 lbs, 1/5/82 Baseball America Rank: 81 Year Inn ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 2005 105.1 2.65 12.1 2.2 0.3 2004 72.0 5.25 9.0 5.1 0.9 2003 48.0 5.25 8.3 6.4 0.6
On an unadjusted basis Green had the second best fielding independent numbers in the draft (behind Matt Torra who went in round 1).
I had now selected one hitter and one pitcher so there wasn't a big need to go in one direction or another. At this point I liked pitchers Lewis and Nicoll, OF Thomas and C Bell, both from Auburn. I was also toying around with taking Auburn's closer Michael Nix as the Jays have a history of taking closers and converting them to starters.
As soon as I write that and check back at the draft Lewis and Bell were both taken at 99 and 100. The Jays pick is at 116. Then Clete Thomas went at 103.
That leaves me with Nicoll, and possibly Nix, so I had to dig up some more names. There were a number of hitters after that to look at. Mike Campell and Steven Tolleson of South Carolina, Ben Copeland of Pitt, and Mark Wagner of UC Irvine.
The fourth round starts and Nicoll makes it down to the 6th pick and I quickly make the selection. A look at Nicoll, who reminds me a bit of Casey Janssen, taken in the 4th round last year:
Chris Nicoll, UC Irvine RHP, 6'3", 190 lbs, 10/30/83 Baseball America Rank: 121 Year Inn ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 2005 111.2 2.50 9.1 1.9 0.4 2004 80.0 3.49 8.0 2.7 0.7 2003 38.0 4.03 8.8 4.3 0.5
Three picks down, one to go. So far we have a stud 3B and two starting righthanders. The players at the top of my draft board at this point are the same ones I had prior to the Nicoll pick. Right now Ben Copeland, the Pitt OF is at the top of the board.
I also had a bunch of 5th round picks ready prior to the draft, but there's enough players falling that I might not have to use any. Anyway, here they are - they might be interesting to follow on draft day:
Danny Powers, RHP, Cent Missouri St John Meloan, RHP, Arizona DJ Wabick, 1B/OF, College of Charleston Steve Pearce, 3B, South Carolina Karl Amonite, 1B, Auburn Brad Corley, OF, Miss St
As I wait for the final pick I'm thinking that Corley is the player to go with. He's struggled this year with a bad thumb, but hit 2 HRs in a game this weekend, and was tremendous last year. Prior to this year's college season he was a possible first round choice. Brewersfan.net had this to say:
Corley is a prototypical right fielder with his power at the plate and his powerful arm from the outfield.
Ok, we have a new leader on the draft board.
John Meloan went with the second pick of round 5 and Ben Copeland went to the Nationals two picks ahead of me in the 5th, but Brad Corley was available and I happily take his big upside - he led the SEC in OPS last year. Corley's numbers (he plays in an extreme pitcher's park):
Brad Corley, OF, Mississippi St. 6'1", 198 lbs, 12/28/83 Hits: R – Throws: R Baseball America Rank: Not in top 200 Year ABs Ave Obp Slg BB K 2005 247 0.312 0.363 0.441 9 42 2004 245 0.380 0.442 0.678 17 44 2003 224 0.321 0.377 0.402 16 44
Wrap Up:
I was going to get a player I liked with the first pick regardless of how it played out, but to end up with Zimmerman was about as good as I could have expected.
The 3rd and 4th round picks were a pair of RH pitchers that I had focused on in the pitcher draft preview thread a couple weeks ago so I was excited to get those two. While Green and Mason were picked right around their BA ranking I liked them more than that.
With the final pick I went for a player having a down year due to injury, but with a lot of upside in Brad Corley.
Overall, I'm pretty pleased with how the draft went. I ended up with better players than I expected going into the draft, but I'm not sure Jon Lalonde has to worry about me taking his job yet.
I'd like to thank John Sickels for organizing and running the draft yesterday. It was certainly a fun event that I'd be more than willing to participate in again.
