I gotta say, I'm a little worried at this point about the Jays offseason prospects. To be quite honest, I would rather see them do a few small things (like last season), rather than overspend for players who will become albatrosses on the budget. I think what scares me the most is that many people have stated that AJ Burnett might be the second coming of Chan Ho Park, or Darren Dreifot, and that contracts like those can set an organization back for years.

Interesting to see that Mota got included in the Beckett deal. What a difference a year makes for that guy.

I disagree Maldoff. I want the Jays to get extremely crazy with their money for 2 reasons:

1) It's not my money and I've never understood why people get so in to the financial aspect of the game. Let the GM's and such worry about contracts and how they affect the team/organization.

2) If the Jays don't spend crazy money, the top free agents simply won't want to come play in Toronto, ever, period. They are always going to have to overpay just to get guys over the "playing in Canada" phobia. On top of that, if you don't spend big in the AL East, you won't win. A few small moves just isn't going to cut it in the AL East. That's why J.P. has repeatedly bitched to the point where it's disgusting about how unfair it is to play in the AL East. That's when he didn't have money however, and now that Uncle Ted opened up the purse, there should be no excuses.

The Jays MUST make a HUGE splash on the FA Market IMO, or else another 82-85 win season is on the horizon.

Rotoworld's latest blurb on the Beckett deal:

"A source with direct knowledge of the negotiations told the Boston Globe that the Red Sox threatened to call off their trade with the Marlins because of health concerns over Josh Beckett unless the Marlins included Guillermo Mota.
That hardly inspires more confidence in Beckett. The Red Sox never actually gave him a physical, instead relying on reports from the Marlins and Dr. James Andrews."

Interesting.

I have to disagree as well Maldoff.

I just don't see the parallel's between Burnett and Chan Ho Park and Darren Driefort. His peripherals are better, and his stuff and potential outweighs theirs as well.

Now I would be a bit leery if BP's pecota or some of the other stats projectors were drawing such parallels, but even those are coming up fairly rosey.

ESPN is reporting a rumour that the Jays are pursuing Lyle Overbay.

I didn't follow the Marlins at all -- how was their defense? Burnett is a groundballer, right?

The Jays have always done well behind Roy Halladay, and I can't help but think putting another groundball guy into the rotation would be a good thing for the Jays.

Neither here nor there, just a little funny:

"In hindsight, Kolb's 21-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio with Milwaukee in 2004 was the mother of all red flags. But it didn't prevent John Schuerholz, one of baseball's most astute general managers, from bringing him to Atlanta as the team's closer. Maybe SABR-metricians don't worry about toughness and guts, but baseball executives live in a different world, and it's naïve to think they don't have to consider a pitcher's makeup or how he might respond to a more demanding market in a closer role."

Jerry Crasnik

When the Brewers asked for Mcgowan JP declined.

I think Overbay is a solid player but isn't he just Shea with a better OBP. Which isnt horrible but not worth Mcgowan.

Florida's infield defense - indifferent. Luis Castillo at second is good, Mike Lowell at third is OK, but Carlos Delgado and The Acceptable Alex Gonzalez are below average. The infield backups - Miguel Cabrera's fill-in time at third, plus Damion Easley and Jeff Conine - are not good. Florida was 27th in baseball in DER, probably partly because of their relatively large park.

Burnett was a rather extreme groundballer last year, with a 2.42-1 ratio, way out of line with his usual 1.3-1 ratio.

"Mike Lowell at third is OK ... Acceptable Alex Gonzalez are below average"

lol Correct me if Im wrong but didnt Mike Lowell win a golden glove at third last year. So yah. From what I know Gonzalez is also a very solid defensive ss. Cannot be compared in the same region as Delgado, who's range is about the distance that he can fall.

Lowell's defense is not as good as his reputation, but it's probably a bit better than "OK", sure.

If Mike Lowell is the real Gold Glove 3B in a league that David Wright plays in, I'm Shaquille O'Neal.

Remember that Florida's team defense was right near the bottom of the league. The outfield bears lots of responsibility for that, but it's not a bad outfield.

If Mike Lowell is the real Gold Glove 3B in a league that David Wright plays in, I'm Shaquille O'Neal.

I always thought that if you shaved off that beard and got a haircut you'd be the spitting image of Shaq, Craig.

I agree Florida's overall defence isnt that great, I just dont think they're terrible. I think Delgado really hurt them last year, I think he's useless in the field. Wright is a very good 3rd basemen but he did have 24 errors last year while Lowell had 6, allthough in 30 less games. Shaq ... is that you :P. Its not as much as a difference as you make it out to be.

But anyways, Im guessing your point is that the Jays defence is better, it definitly is, I just hope they keep Orlando, who contributions in the field seem to be under appreciated. I noticed a huge difference when he wasnt in the field. Just my opinion.

For what it is worth, AJ's ERA last year was 3.44, his FIP was 3.09 and xFIP was 3.30

AJ had a DER of .702 behind him (defensive efficiency). The overall DER for the Jays was .701 so I doubt there would be any change there for him. Depends on ground balls and if the Jays were really better at that than Florida.

Omar Minaya is obviously going for the prize in 2006 - he's still in hot pursuit of Benjie Molina and Billy Wagner, who would nicely fill the two obvious remaining holes. The Mets were probably a lot better than 83-79 last year anyway, and if Pedro and Glavine hold up for one more year, they could easily win 95 games.

Although it's odd that a team managed by Willie Randolph doesn't have a competent leadoff hitter. Maybe Willie should suit up himself...

I just went to it a few days ago for the first time but I am wondering how reliable is insidethedome.com They are posting that the jays signed BJ Ryan which, if not true, is pretty weak. The say it comes from the Daily News (which makes me doubt it even more) but give no link. Can anyone familiar with the site let me know if it is worth my time going there. Thanks

http://www.nydailynews.com/front/breaking_news/story/369021p-313970c.html

http://bluejays.scout.com/2/471137.html

http://bluejays.scout.com/2/470872.html

http://bluejays.scout.com/2/470906.html

All stories appear to much sense right now

It's on rotoworld too, Wow, that's a lot of money!

5 years/$47M! Well, if this is true then I'd say JP has made a very nice first step in making a serious upgrade on the team. BJ the Blue Jay has a very nice ring to it...

So too, of course, would be AJ the Blue Jay. Hopefully JP left enough payroll room to add on another big contract at say $11M/year - and follow it up with a nice corner outfield bat. Kevin Mench anyone?

Wow, so the Jays have signed BJ Ryan...thats exciting...I don't know too much about him...but lets hope he's worth 47 million over the next 5 years.

So I guess the question how is long before they trade Batista?

Wow.

The contract that the Jays were rumored to have offered Burnett has gone to Ryan. I like BJ Ryan, but wow...

We've been calling for JP to make a splash, he's certainly made a splash. Say what you want about the value of the contract, but isn't it refreshing as hell to see a big name sign here for big bucks?

That's a lot of cache, for a lot of years. Wow.

It's on rotoworld too, Wow, that's a lot of money!

Not to put a damper on things, but I'm always cautious about using scout.com or rotoworld as a second source for confirmation, since they'll be simply repeating the NY Daily News story.

I'm excited, though, if B.J. is a Jay.

I refuse to believe JP handed out 47 mil over 5yrs for BJ Ryan until I see another source like Gammons or Rosenthal report it.

I have a lot of thoughts if this deal is true, but I'll wait for confirmation before I ramble on.

Wow that was quick...

http://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article.jsp?content=20051125_194301_4524

JP denied the story.

<i>but isn't it refreshing as hell to see a big name sign here for big bucks?</i>
<p>
I like Blue Jay Ryan, but to call him a big name is a stretch. I think there are only four or five "Big name" relievers, and Ryan isn't one of them.
<p>
I'll hold off further comment until I see a more credible source.

If the top FAs don't want to come to Canada because of their nutbar wives, then why not give them lots of bling--the real thing? It's only a matter of time before the big contracts are offered in gold, IMO, and who better to start the ball rolling then the Canadian club? The studs that are lip readers might not have noticed what's going on in the Real World, but I'll bet most of their agents are noticing that the price of gold is beginning to go parabolic--from vertical to horizontal on a long term chart. In that regard, five year contracts in US dollars make a lot of sense sense with Ben "Helicopter" Bernacke about to take over the Federal Reserve in January. This is the sweet spot in the Elliott Wave. If you, too, want to become a millionaire, the train is about to leave the station.

Still refreshing to read rumours re: big names, big bucks?

My guess is there will be no official comment from the Jays until after the physical.

47 million? I thought Denny Neagle set the market for BJs at 40 million.

Horizontal to vertical, whatever. I never could hit a curve ball, much less throw one.

Assuming this is true, is this good or bad in relation to signing Burnett or Giles???

Assuming it's true...

didn't I just see this msg??

Wow that was quick...

http://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article.jsp?content=20051125_194301_4524

JP denied the story.

My guess is there will be no official comment from the Jays until after the physical.

I'd say that J.P. Ricciardi telling a television station that there's no deal but that the Jays are still pursuing B.J. Ryan is about as official as you can get without seeing it on Rogers letterhead.

Oh, and this shows you the where and why of rumors: it's likely that someone in Ryan's camp gave this info to the media as an indicator to bidding teams of what they'll have to compete against and how many other teams are willing to give out big dollars.

OK. I'll ask another way. I heard, although JP has denied it, the Jays have offered BJ Ryan 5/$47. This is more years, and more per year, than any other has been rumored to offer. Is this a bad sign when it comes to AJ Burnett and/or Brian Giles???

I'd say that J.P. Ricciardi telling a television station that there's no deal but that the Jays are still pursuing B.J. Ryan is about as official as you can get without seeing it on Rogers letterhead.

Not to mention that Television Station is owned by the same man who owns the Jays.

New York Daily news reports that the Jays have signed BJ Ryan

(thought it had some information i hadn't seen already)

Sorry, all... i see that they updated the previous link too... It's all the same now.

The deal will go through.

To contend we need dominate pitching. With Ryan we now have a MASSIVE pen. Now where in AJ this weekend? Frank Thomas would look good in blue too!

Hi there guys, this is my first post (though I've been reading for a long time). I guess that makes me "long time listener, first time caller".

But I digress.

(Assuming the rumours are true or reasonably true) 5 years and 47 million? That is too much money! I know the Jays needed to make a splash, and I have no problem with the years... but that is Billy Wagner money. Also consider the deal Armando Benitez got last year from the Giants (3/21.5), a guy who had a better previous season (47/51 SV chances, 1.96 ERA, .152 BAA, etc.) and had proven to be a good closer over many seasons. Granted he's 3 years older than B.J. and had more wear-and-tear on his arm, but STILL -- this contract (if accurate) totally changes the market. The Mets are probably only wondering what it will take to sign Wagner now (though, in reality, they are only going to be bidding against themselves. I'm willing to bet that Philly will be more likely to look at cost effective alternatives than the Mets.)

You'd have to agree that this contract is overpaying BEYOND overpaying (in other words, the Jays need to overpay, but considering the years that they would give along with this kind of money...), well... I just don't know. This could be it for our big FA splash, and it was probably the only area (bullpen) that didn't need attention. Does anyone disagree?

Looks like it's for real. At Sportsnet.ca it say's something like "first denial, then Jays admit to signing closer"

w00t! hope so, it's a lot of money but it feels a need.

It is now on the frontpage at sportsnet.ca

sportsnet.ca is citing 5 yrs/45 mil, but is attributing that to the NY Daily News (which means it should say 47 mil). Or maybe they are getting different information and are not attributing it properly? I would assume it's just a mistake, and for now we can assume that 47 mil is about right.

Anybody know which bowling alley Randy Myers is running these days?

I hope BJ doesn't own his for another 10 years or so.

Wow, that's too much money for too long for BJ Ryan but I can't say this is a bad deal. I'm inclined to call it a good deal, and I like it more than signing Burnett for a similar deal.

I understand the signal JP wants to send with the deal, and it will also allow the Jays to move Batista back to the rotation and/or gives the Jays more flexibilty in making a trade for a bat.

I'm suprisingly happy with this signing.

Wow this is simply fantastic news. How awesome is our bullpen now?

O boy this is wikid.

This is just the start... Burnett is next... I hope?

Well, at least we got someone...

http://tsn.ca/mlb/news_story.asp?id=144507

TSN is citing the Associated Press as the source, so it looks official.

Get the welcome mat ready.

BJ is a B-Jay.

I'm really not sold on AJ. BJ atleast has put it together. AJ is just a wish and a prayer.

My fingers are crossed for Giles. But I'm certainly not getting my hopes up.

Unbelievable. In my 9 years of being a die hard Blue Jay fan I have never been more excited than this. We are finally back in the mix.

"JP stormed into Steinbrenner's office, late, Friday night. He swept all the papers off his desk and looked to him face to face. Ricciardi looked into the cold, dark eyes of the Yankee emporer and said 'Screw you, Yankees, your money can't buy you everything!'"

But in all seriousness, this seems like alot of money. I wonder if he was presented with the situation that was mentioned here on da box earlier, about having both pitchers accepting his offers.

For the time being, before we realize if the contract was worth it, or not, I'm going to bask in the PR Sun and enjoy this day--THE DAY WE OUTBID THE YANKEES.

I am going to revise my earlier comments:

This will be a good deal depending on what happens from ensuing moves. If Batista is moved for something mediocre (i.e. a 15-18 HR hitter) then I don't think it's all that great. Ditto if Batista goes into the rotation, the Jays fail to sign or trade for another starter.

But if Batista leaves (in a package) for a good piece of the puzzle, then I'm aboard. It think JP must clear out his 4.7 Mil (approx.) in 2006 salary and make some more moves.

I know that despite all the statheads who may think that a closer who is "THE MAN" is overrated (me included), time and time again this appears to be disproven by failed experiments. BUT -- 9 million for a guy to pitch 70-ish innings?? That's $128,571 per inning (based on last years totals). Those inevitable blown saves will be even more costly this year.

One more thought. Presumably this cuts into the Jays budget for this year more than we imagine (9.4 M/yr), because the contract probably includes a large signing bonus in an attempt to please the player and front-load the contract. Some Toronto writer (Elliot? Griffin? Allan Ryan?) mused that JP doesn't really know what will happen with the Jays budget after 2007, but if the $210 is allotted for the next 3 years, then the Jays will be slashing payroll... With all the contracts expiring, it's hard to say really, but the safe bet is that to prevent a fire sale, JP should front-load. This leaves money for one more big name FA plus a little extra for trade differential. That's why moving Batista is important. I don't particularly care what the Jays get back for Hinske or Batista, frankly.

There's a new thread for all your B.J. Ryan chatter.

That is a *lot* of dough (BJ better be 110% healthy), but suddenly JP has a lot more leverage on the trade and free agent markets. The Jays are getting competitive, which has got to make them attractive to the remaining free agents. JP can also start working on packaging off players (eg Batista) to further strengthen the team.

Well--we got what we wanted, didn't we? A huge splash, for sure.

You have to figure if Sportsnet is reporting it, it must be true. Its the same company after all.

Rotoworld says:
"According to the New York Daily News, the Blue Jays have agreed to terms with B.J. Ryan on a five-year, $47 million contract.
So much for him being undervalued. That's a tremendous amount of money for a closer, even if Ryan will probably be asked to pitch more than most save specialists. We like his chances of remaining a quality reliever for the duration of the contract, but, well, that's a lot of money. "

I am actually happy with the money. It is a lot overall but less per year than I thought he was going to sign for. The Jays now look to have one of the most solid bullpens in the AL.

Probably a good move by JP. (I say probably because what do we really know sitting on our couch.) He locks up a guy early and doesn't get into a bidding war or risk losing him late when he has few options. The deal might make TO more attractive to a starter who would like a strong bullpen behind them. Maybe it make the Jays look like contenders and attracts a bat too.

What's up with JP and lefties?

You can never be too rich, too thin, or have too many lefties on the mound. Who can forget Jimmy Key's pickoff move to first in game 6 of the '92 WS? Right there, the Braves were done like dinner.
Ricciardi is also sending a message to AJ's agent: sh*t or get off the pot. The latter, I hope.
Now if he can just sign Giles, I can seriously start planning my next vacation to see my eastern relatives for mid- to late October...