J.P. wants Wells to play out the season before talking extension because we're still waiting to find out if the 2003 season was a fluke. If 2002, 2004, and 2005 more closely represents his true offensive value, then obviously that would affect what kind of offer the Jays would make.

My gut feeling is that 2003 was a fluke and he really is a .270 .330 .460 hitter. What do you pay a center fielder for that production along with a very good defense?

Y'know, seeing Vernon Wells in another team's uniform these past couple of weeks (Team USA, of course) didn't horrify me as much as I thought. Maybe it's a premonition.

Halladay's extension, in addition to being a good thing for the ballclub as a whole, served the ancillary purpose of serving notice on Vernon: are you in for the long haul, or are you not? The Jays just spent a boatload of money this off-season, brought in "proven veterans" by the bushel, and committed another $40M to their ace pitcher. You can't make a clearer "committment to winning" than that.

If Wells were really interested in spending the bulk of his career as a Jay, negotiations with the club would be going on right now. That they're not, tells me that Vernon will be a Texas Ranger or a Washington National by this time next year.

There is nothing I am more sure of right now then the fact that Vernon Well is a happy camper. In interviews last year he always said how he wants to bring the Jays to a championship, putting a lot of pressure on himself on a team that used to have fairly low odds, other than to make things interesting. Now, he has the first chance to taste success, and has less pressure on him because of all the new great players coming in. I think that if Wells does well this season, and the Jays have a very competitive season (maybe wildcard?), both very likely things, I can definitely see Wells re-signing a deal. He'll be like: "look how serioues this team is, with BJ and AJ and Doc until 2010..." He does not JUST want to win so that he'll go the yankees, as I see him as someone who wants to be loyal to his team - it's just now he has a much deserved chance to play exciting, rewarding baseball.

Waiting a year also gives them the chance to figure out what's going on with Alex Rios. If Vernon is just "really good" instead of an All-Star and Rios turns into the player everyone thinks he can be, then maybe Rios takes over centre.

On the other hand, if Rios fails to develop, J.P. might have no choice but to re-sign Vernon, given the abscence of other outfield optionds.

True. Of course, Rios doesn't have to develop as much to become an above average CF as he does to become an above average corner outfielder.

In addition, a Vernon Wells for 5M in 2007 has a lot of trade value. You could probably get a decent return...or you could package him with another 5M player who signed at the same time as Vernon and get less in return.

It'd be interesting to know how the Jays value Wells, that is, what they'd be willing to pay him. Johnny Damon got $13 million/year this offseason so I suspect the absolute minimum Wells would want would be $10 million/year.

I'm not sure he's worth that much. On Wells' PECOTA card it has him worth about $8 million/year in 2008-2010, so $10 million/year is probably in the ballpark for what the Jays might pay him, but I'm not sure he'd sign for that.

How will the Jays be able to sign Wells to an extension?

As pointed out in the other thread, here are the salaries for Glaus, Halladay, Burnett, and Ryan:
2006-40 million
2007-44.5 million
2008-44.75 million
2009-47.5 million

The Jays throw another $10 million/ year on top of that for Wells and they might have only $20 - $30 million for the other 20 players.

We're making assumptions that Rogers holds the team salary constant. I'd be willing to bet that a businessman as smart as him isn't going to derail a train that's just picking up steam this year and next. The stadium is going to start filling up again and he's on his way to the successful formula in baseball - spend money, put a winning team on the field, fill the stands, make money. There's no doubt he's well aware of all the publicity his team has generated this off season, and there's no doubt in my mind this team will be a lot of fun to watch and win more ball games then it loses. If Rogers sees progress towards profit, he'll stick with what got him there. Spending money!

Please don't pillory me, BUT... Wells is TO toast.

He's too big to play CF much longer and while a "star" CF he won't be a "star" corner outfielder. We could trade him for a very nice little bangle. Possibly, even a very fine bell and whistle. One with a blue ribbon would suit our team colours. (For our southern neighbours, we spell color and neighbor with an "u". Not our fault, blame the Queen. Speaking of the Queen, it sounds naughty BUT she's down under at the moment.)

"If Rogers sees progress towards profit, he'll stick with what got him there. Spending money!"

Exactly. Uncle Ted has a history of frontloading investment at the cost of immediate profits to grow his business. A dominate Jays team would be the marketing jewel in his burgeoning telecommunications empire. The marketing tie ins and spin off profits to other sectors of his empire are endless. It will be like the good old days, before the Belgian gnomes took over. The Jays never looked to turn a profit per se, because they didn't have to. And they sold a lot of beer. In fact, the Jays tie ins for Rogers will dwarf what the Jays did for Labatts. I'll put Roger's money and the total Canadian market up against whatever resources any team has, including the Spankys.

Here's a quote from J.P. that was in an article by Chris Girandola of MLB.com:

"He made it clear that he wanted to stay here", said Toronto General Manager J.P. Ricciardi, referring to Halladay. "IF we get that clarity with Vernon, then we'll proceed the same way".

Maybe I'm reading into it too much, but I get the feeling that Wells wants to test the market. I'm sure that the Jays management has approached Wells, and he's probably been hesitant to commit. Wells has been mentioned in trade rumors for Abreu, Wilkerson, Ramirez and others, and he'd cost a lot of money to keep. I think that's why the Jays have held on to Rios. (I know I sound like a broken record)

Rios is great defensively and even if his power never develops, although I think that it will, he'd still be a fine centerfielder. I like Wells, but if he left it wouldn't be the end of the world. The Jays could get a lot in return if they traded him after 2006, perhaps even a slugging corner OF if Rios was moved to CF to replace Wells.

"He made it clear that he wanted to stay here", said Toronto General Manager J.P. Ricciardi, referring to Halladay. "IF we get that clarity with Vernon, then we'll proceed the same way".

Said Wells, "J.P. and I had a discussion, and he wants me to play out the year and go with my gut instinct, and we'll go from there."

While these quotes don’t contradict each other, both parties are deflecting blame.

This has me curious... does anyone know where we could find a pillory for Mylegacy?

Anybody willing to trade an all-star for a little bangle or a bell and whistle ought to get something.

Wells isn't going to say he wants to explore the market two years before his contract runs out because he'll look like a jerk. Ricciardi doesn't want to say he's not really interested in keeping Wells because he'll look like a jerk.

It's all some variety of PR and negotating strategy, and I don't think you can take any of it at face value. Ditto Wells' recent comments about playing with Michael Young - plenty of players say things like "I'd like to play with my friend/brother/hero," but that doesn't mean they will, nor does it mean they'll make it their central goal in future contract negotations.

Is Wells 'toast'? Hard to say. There are many factors in the payroll that we don't know. Such as what will the new collective agreement have in it, will there be more revenue sharing, if so from where and how?

I suspect the Jays are setting up their base for a 5 year run ala the late 80's Jays (from 85-early 89 the outfield was Bell/Moseby/Barfield, Fernandez at SS, Whitt at CA, Mulliniks at 3B/DH, Stieb/Key were the core of the rotation, Henke for the pen).

Is Vernon part of that core for this team? We have (most likely) the following for 06-10...
SP: Halladay, Burnett, Chacin (free agent after 2010), maybe Towers (geez, must suck to be a starter in the Jays minors right now)
RP: Ryan
IF: Glaus, Adams, Hill
OF: ???
CA: ???

So, rather than locking up an outfield ala the 80's (plus a few everywhere else), we have an infield and rotation. The 80's had a 9 man core, these Jays have an 8 man core at the moment. Wells would be nice to keep but cost could be a big factor. Rios and Overbay could be part of this team for those years too. Hillenbrand most likely is gone after this season, Johnson and Hinske are wildcards who could become core or at least 'steady backups' ala the Brewers of the 80's with Jim Gantner (3 times over 145 games played in 17 seasons with the Brewers).

We mostly know who we'll see in Toronto Blue for the next 5 years now. Wells could be part of that. If he plays at the same level as he has lately, and Rios does poorly, and he keeps his contract demands under $10 mil/year (I'd like $7-8 but $10 is the max in my mind) I'd expect Wells to stick.

Random thought...wonder if at the end of this stretch (or before) we'll see a clearance/shift ala the 89-91 Jays and which of these players will be the guy(s) who sticks through it all. Only Tony Fernandez made it from '85 to '93 and that was just due to being traded back to the Jays for the '93 run (Alfredo Griffin was a pre-85 Jay who came back for 92/93). '92 had '85 leftovers Manny Lee, Kelly Gruber, Mulliniks, Key, Stieb, Henke.

Funny note: Alfredo Griffin never was in a losing playoff effort - 3 times in the playoffs, 3 rings (LA 88 was the other one).

""Anybody willing to trade an all-star for a little bangle or a bell and whistle ought to get something.""

I assume he meant a young guy who can "bangle" the ball out of the park, or a fast ball that whistles. I'd take a young George Bell as well...

As much as I love Towers and think his signing was brilliant, there is no way he sticks around until 2010. If he continues to perform as he did last year he becomes too expensive to be a third starter, and if he falters, other cheaper options will become available.

Also a key unknown is to see how Vernon fares with Glaus protecting him in the order. If they can produce a Wells/Delgado combo circa 2003 there will be lots of fireworks going off in the dome this year.

Hopefully Vern take out his anger from his final-rally-killying DP in the WBC against the rest of the league.

The stadium is going to start filling up again and he's on his way to the successful formula in baseball - spend money, put a winning team on the field, fill the stands, make money.

And remember, all profits are magnified because they own the stadium now, too.

2.6 million is surely not too much for a third starter or even a fourth, especially if he can keep up, or be close to last year's performance.

I don't think Vernon will be back and it would be wise to trade him next summer and get something back, like Oakland did with their big three and we didn't do with Carlos, though he did have the no-trade.

I just heard that Hill broke his hand today on a pitched ball. Do you think Roberts gets some time with the big club, or do you think the Jays grab a guy off of waivers, or trade for a guy like menechino at the cost of a young prospect?

2.6 million is surely not too much for a third starter or even a fourth, especially if he can keep up, or be close to last year's performance.

The problem is that if he repeats that performance for the next two years, he's going to ask for a lot more than 2.6 million, and I wouldn't blame him for leaving if the Jays said no. A guy who posts an ERA between 3.5 and 4.00 for three years at age 32 would command at least $7 million, and potentially more. And that is way too much.

I will cry if I have to see John McDonald as the the Blue Jays starting second basemen on opening day.

Hey, here's another reason to miss Dave Bush -- he now has amusing facial hair. (Looks like he finally got the memo.)

Can we get some confirmation on the Hill rumour? There doesn't seem to be anything on the newswires.

where did u hear this news about hill? its not showing up anywhere. i hope its WRONG.

I've checked all my sources and nothing is coming up. It must be a lie.

Hill played in today's game against the Reds, and was pulled for a pinch runner. There is no reference whatsoever to Hill being injured in the game report.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060317&content_id=1353489&vkey=spt2006gamer&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor

"I've checked all my sources and nothing is coming up. It must be a lie."

Box score for today's game on bluejays.ca shows Hill was HBP in the 4th, and left for a pinch runner.

Maybe not a lie

Sorry, one further note.

The game report does mention that Hill was hit by a pitch from Red hurler Germano. He was then substituted for on the basepaths.

Maybe he's injured, maybe not.... Although if he was; don't you think that would have been on one of the websites by now?

Knowing he was hit by a pitch is one thing, but a fracture is another.

I see Dewayne Wise smacked a triple off Roy today. He's had a few homers this spring and I wonder if he'll find a spot backing up the Reds' outfielders.

Nothing on Rotoworld, which has some game notes on the performances of Germano (Reds starter) and Halladay.

http://fantasybaseball.rotoworld.com/content/home_mlb.asp?sport=MLB

"I just heard that Hill broke his hand today on a pitched ball"

Please do not post rumors without specifics (in this case who did you hear it from?) and provide a link if it's on the internet.

For whats its worth --this from Blue Jay Way--

"at the end of the game on the net today with jerry and waren jorden basten come up to the booth and told jerry that he just came back from the club house and said that he had an e-ray and it came back negitive. he dose not have a BROKEN HAND.

I can't trust anyone who can't spell x-ray properly.

Like for Christ sakes, the 'e' is two rows up from the 'x'.

VBF -- I took it directly from the site & purposely left the spelling as it was--don't shoot the messenger--

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060317&content_id=1353593&vkey=spt2006news&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Tough break for the Nats. Ayala got injured at the WBC and now needs TJ surgery.

Like for Christ sakes, the 'e' is two rows up from the 'x'.

I was about to type something about how X-ray really starts with "e" anyways, but then I typed "E-ray".

Is it possible that "E-ray" could be this year's "Man Strength"?

It looks like Aaron Hill will be okay according to bluejays.com. For someone who forked out way too much money for a Hill jersey over the off-season, this is great news!!

Click here for story

Off topic here but has anyone received their Toronto Star Season Pass? I got mine in the mail today. Happy St. Patrick's Day for me!! However, they didn't have my name on them. Is this the same for everyone else? Just wondering. Opening Day can't get here soon enough.

"Ouch: Hill was hit by a pitch on his left hand in the fourth inning and was replaced by a pinch-runner. After the game, Hill's hand was wrapped, but he said that he would be fine to play on Saturday. He said that there was minor swelling, and X-rays revealed no damage."

BlueJays.com

I got my StarPass yesterday as well. No name. Did you get a Hill jersey because it's #2 like Brumfield?

I posted what I had heard, apparently I was mis-informed. Sorry. I didn't see any confirmation anywhere, so I posted here in the hopes that some details would follow. Sorry if my post is considered wild speculation.

Nope, I haven't gotten the Pass delivered yet. As a reminder for pass holders, I believe you can get your tickets for Opening Day as early as Tuesday.

I'd rather drop 10 Million on a solid corner OF, which is probably a fair estimate of what he is going to make.

I think 03 was more of a fluke, and I have my doubts of Wells returning to form.

VBF must be trying to horde the good Opening Day tickets for himself because the letter that came with my passes (they had no names) said that they can be picked up on March 20 (Monday).

Heh, there's no more good seats anyways! I think 534 row 15 is what's going as of now. Anyways we already got our seats on the 100 level in February :P

Sweat, it's not that it's wild speculation, and no one is saying you shouldn't have posted what you heard -- it's just good form to always, always post the source so that it can be evaluated. Like, "I heard it on the radio" is better than "I read it on the ESPN message boards", and we'd react to one differently from the other.

From the president of the Jays fan club Dayn Perry:

" The Blue Jays' "college players or death" approach to the draft clearly isn't working. They've picked in the upper half (or thereabouts) of the first round in every draft since J.P. Ricciardi took over as GM, yet they have the worst farm system in the AL and haven't graduated any high-ceiling talents to the major leagues. It's time for a more diverse approach."

I've gotten both my passes; Opening Day tickets are available starting Monday, and that's where I'm gonna be on Monday morning.

It's clear WHY Ricardi picked college players - because they were are more quickly ready for the majors...and he was under a limit of a five year plan. Hopefully from here on in we can pick differently.

Where do players come from?

The Dominican
Venezuela
Cuba
Puerto Rico
Mexico
Japan
Korea
China
Taiwan
Canada
The US Colleges
US High Schools

I don't care how well you draft from US colleges...WE NEED to build from Latin America and Asia as well. NOT JUST TOKENISM, REAL IN DEPTH SCOUTING and then putting the money there to get tomorrow's stars.

JP is not WRONG to do what he's doing he's hamstrung by a lack of budget. This World Baseball Tournament has shown GRAPHICALLY the futility of ONLY SERIOUSLY considering US College players.

Slightly off topic, thankfully the US LOST. The two serious errors of the tournament both went in the US's favour. Had they gone on further the rest of the world would have considered it an injustice.

Losing to Canada and Mexico, not exactly their finest hour. At least now they know how the Brits feel with Cricket. The Brits invent a game NO ONE UNDERSTANDS, and still can't beat anyone in it. Nothing's worse than being called out LBW (leg before wicket) while the bowler screams at you in some language you can't understand.

I hear they make very nice little bangles in China. JP ought to go over there and pick up a few.

I LOVE when people use RIDICULOUS ways of writing, which EMPHASIZE things.

I'm sure various people know more about the Jays setup, but out of the places named, only Venezuela and the DR are paticularly worth while, and I guess Puerto Rico. I'm pretty sure the Jays have some scouts there, but theyre never going to be able to compete with teams like the Dodgers, and their baseball academies. Asian scouting? There are no (I believe) major leaguers from China, and I don't think there are any/many from Taiwain. Japanese players come over mid career (Matsui, Ichiro, etc.) I'm not sure how the pipeline works out of Korea. Cuba is kinda hard to scout, plus they generally have to defect first. the Jays already scout Canada, but basically all the best players come out of BC, and Ontario a bit too. I'm not sure what the Jays Mexican scouting is like, but there are only some 15 or so Mexican born players playing in the Majors.

The reason the Jays scout U.S. colleges, and the Big XII and SEC in particular, I believe (correct me if I'm wrong) is because thats where they can make most efficient use of their limited resources. They can get stats, and the leagues generally tend to produce good enough players.

"If Rogers sees progress towards profit, he'll stick with what got him there. Spending money!"

Assuming Jays do well and draw well this year, the budget could very well go up next year, but it is not going to rise by 30 million or anything and there will definitely be a ceiling as well. Even if it goes up a few million each year over the next few years, the Jays could still have major budget restrictions if they sign Wells long-term. They would be spending somewhere around 55 million for 5 players. Even given an 80 million a year budget, this would leave only 1.25 million per player which would mean the Jays would have to have a lot of rookies and/or poor players on their roster. Guys who signed for roughly that salary this year were players like Joey Eischen, Miguel Cairo, Joe Mays, Scott Sauerbeck, and Jose Vizcaino. Considering the lack of position prospects in the system, I don't think the Jays can really afford to re-sign Wells unless he's willing to take a lower salary to stay in Toronto.

Stupid Burnett and Ryan taking up all the money.

I think you're missing the premise behind Mylegacy's observations, which is a prediction that there will be a cosmic shift in where the best baseball talent is found.

As the theory goes, it is irrelevant how many Asian players there are in MLB today, or how many Mexicans or Koreans or South Africans. The expectation is that there will be an immigration explosion as young people from the darndest places reach the big stage.

And then the development game will be to search these distant countries to sign the gifted athlete and bring him into your minor league system to develop.

What if countries outside of the U.S. produce better players, higher quality, harder-working gents who are on average more valuable than home-grown Americans?

Would it still be efficient use of resources to shop for your groceries by cutting out coupons and hunting for the best bargains while others are feasting at all-you-can-eat buffets for $2.99 whenever they get hungry?

You don't have to believe that baseball is played at as high a level in Korea as in Florida, or that a young German fella could ever pitch like a Texan. Just so long as you can get "good enough players" your team should be okay. It's when you're getting not good enough players that you should worry.

JP has been dipping into the international market recently.

Bonus baby Leance Soto was given $600,000.

Chi-Hung Cheng was given $400,000 and Po-Hsuan Keng was given $225,000.

Okay, here's some good news. Everyone read this article, basically having Wells "clarify his comments about being reuinted with Young."

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060318&content_id=1354844&vkey=spt2006news&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor

The sense I get from reading this is that it could go either way, perhaps Young will come here after 2008 and Wells will sign a longer term deal with the Jays, and Texas is a "maybe" as well. It's up in the air and a lot depends on how well we do and Wells does. (But I doubt we could afford Young then??? - unless he sucks next few years....)

...

Baseball America's top 100 prospects by Nation 2006

82 United States
7 Dominican Republic
6 Venezuela
2 Canada
1 Australia, Cuba, Japan

...

Assuming Jays do well and draw well this year, the budget could very well go up next year, but it is not going to rise by 30 million or anything and there will definitely be a ceiling as well.

Glevin, what's your source on that?

It's contrary to what we've seen so far, where just owning the stadium allowed for an increase of $20-plus million to the yearly budget without an attendance increase. If ratings and attendance both go up, why are you so certain that the budget will not go up a significant amount, provided the team is performing and the increase will help the team remain competitive or become more competitive?

You say "but it is not going to rise by 30 million" -- do you mean you don't think that it will rise by $30 million, or you know for a fact that it won't because you have inside information?

What does Baseball Dominicana rank as the top 100?
;)

What does Baseball Dominicana rank as the top 100?

I think Geoff wins Post of the Week.

I'd award you a cuttlefish, but I don't know where Moffatt left them.

Good one.

It just seems a bit silly to me to worry about scouting Korea, when there is such a severe shortage of African-American players in baseball today. You'd get a better return building youth complexes in the inner cities of the US then scouring South Africa and China. I know there are plans for a Compton development complex, but the rules of the amature draft are hurting the development of American players.

The draft rules make building US development complexes useless from a team perspective. For MLB to build these complexes to help market the game in inner cities is helpful but a team would get little direct benefit from a proprietary complex. A team would develop talent only to see the talent made available to all teams since all players in North America are subject to the draft.

For this same reason, the Blue Jays couldn't set up Canadian complexes to develop talent and then withhold the talent developed from other teams. I suppose that draft dodgers can't make a run for our border either.

I can't agreee that the amateur draft rules are hurting the develop of American players. Most players still come from America. Maybe you mean the develop of African-American players. I don't agree with this either. You can blame a number of factors (bad MLB marketing and cultural shifts for example) but amateur draft rules, if they hold any blame, are way down on the list.

If you were able to sign and develop African-American players like you could Latin American players you would have a huge resource of American born players.

College Baseball has become completely dominated by white players and the percentage of African-American players in the majors is only going to continue to drop.

My point is that it's stupid to worry about mining Korea or New Zealand when there is a huge reservoir of untapped talent in the United States.

Two things:

I'll be very happy with the Jays going for a college player in the first round if Matt laPortia is still on the board when we pick;

As for development overseas, rather than trying to invest money to get back up to speed in the traditional markets, I'd suggest a two step plan:

1. Take advantage of the political tensions between Venezuala and the U.S. by trying to be the lead organization in that country - possibly with an acadamy there;

2. Go out of your way to build something from the ground up in South Africa. It'd be a really long term project, but if you could get them young and provide some organizational help and backing to lots of youth leagues...sooner or later all that natural athletic ability on that continent is going to be tapped - might as well be in the front of that parade.