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Caramon was wondering how many of the runs allowed by Roy Halladay this season had come about because of home runs. This is well worth exploring, but we should put it in context. Which means that at the very least we should carry out the same exercise for the rest of the staff.

The Blue Jays have used 18 pitchers this season - 17 of them have been taken deep, and B.J. Ryan is a God among men. So let's make some Data Tables!

You can probably figure out most of these categories. Runs/HR are the number of runs charged to this pitcher that scored because of home runs allowed by this pitcher. The last figure, Pct/Runs provides the percentage of runs allowed by this pitcher that scored on home runs allowed by this pitcher.

It was necessary to drag out the italics because inherited runners sometimes score when a reliever comes in and gives up a homer.This has actually happened five times this season. Three times courtesy of Jason Frasor, once by Justin Speier and Brian Tallet. Strangely enough, in each case it was a previous reliever whose inherited runners ended up scoring - Walker and Downs once apiece, and Scott Schoenweis three times.

Pitcher             G  GS   IPT    Runs  HR  Runs on HRs Home Road  HR/9 IPT  Runs/HR Pct/Runs
Roy Halladay 16 16 114.2 43 11 12 8 3 0.86 1.09 .279
Ted Lilly 16 16 90.2 44 14 19 11 3 1.39 1.36 .432
Casey Janssen 13 13 74.0 38 7 12 4 3 0.85 1.71 .316
Josh Towers 12 12 54.1 57 16 28 7 9 2.65 1.75 .491
Gustavo Chacin 10 10 51.1 33 13 19 7 6 2.28 1.46 .576
B.J. Ryan 36 0 38.2 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 .000
Scott Downs 28 3 36.1 23 4 6 3 1 0.99 1.50 .261
Jason Frasor 32 0 31.2 19 6 10 5 1 1.70 1.67 .526
Justin Speier 36 0 31.0 9 3 4 3 0 0.87 1.33 .444
Pete Walker 19 0 27.0 16 5 7 3 2 1.67 1.40 .438
Ty Taubenheim 9 5 26.2 17 4 5 1 3 1.35 1.20 .294
Scott Schoeneweis 39 0 25.1 16 3 5 2 1 1.07 1.67 .313
A.J. Burnett 4 4 25.0 9 4 7 2 2 1.44 1.75 .778
Vinnie Chulk 17 0 19.2 15 4 8 1 3 1.83 2.00 .533
Francisco Rosario 15 0 19.2 11 3 4 2 1 1.37 1.33 .364
Brian Tallet 14 0 18.2 11 4 6 1 3 1.93 1.50 .545
Dustin McGowan 5 0 5.2 6 1 2 0 1 1.59 2.00 .333
Shaun Marcum 3 0 3.2 6 1 1 0 1 2.45 1.00 .167
TOTAL 79 79 694.0 375 103 151 60 43 1.34 1.46 .403

And here are the specifics:

Roy Halladay
Date/Opp            HR    Runs   Batters
Apr 4 vs MIN 2 2 Batista; Stewart
Apr 9 vs TB 1 1 T.Lee
May 13 atTB 1 1 Gomes
May 18 at LAA 1 1 Napoli
May 29 vs BOS 2 3 Ramirez (2 run); Crisp
Jun 3 at TB 1 1 Wigginton
Jun 13 vs BAL 1 1 Tejada
Jun 29 vs WASH 2 2 M.Anderson; M.Anderson
TOTAL 11 12

Ted Lilly
Date/Opp            HR    Runs   Batters
Apr 19 vs NYY 1 1 A.Rodriguez
Apr 26 vs BAL 1 1 Conine
May 1 at BAL 1 1 R.Hernandez
May 6 vs LAA 1 1 Salmon
May 11 vs OAK 2 2 Swisher, Swisher
May 16 at LAA 1 2 Guerrero (2 run)
May 26 vs CWS 2 2 Konerko; Konerko
May 31 vs BOS 2 3 Loretta (2 run); Ortiz
Jun 5 at BAL 1 1 Millar
Jun 10 vs DET 2 5 Inge (3 run); Thames (2 run)
TOTAL 14 19

Casey Janssen
Date/Opp             HR    Runs       Batters
May 2 at BAL 1 2 Gibbons (2 run)
May 22 vs TB 2 2 Branyan; Paul
Jun 2 at TB 1 2 Branyan (2 run)
Jun 17 at FLA 1 2 Jacobs (2 run)
Jun 23 vs NYM 2 4 Wright (3 run); Milledge
TOTAL 7 12

Josh Towers
Date/Opp             HR    Runs   Batters
Apr 5 vs MIN 1 1 Stewart
Apr 16 at CWS 2 4 Dye (2 run); Thome (2 run)
Apr 23 vs BOS 1 2 Ortiz (2 run)
Apr 29 at NYY 2 4 Giambi (3 run); Damon
May 4 at BOS 1 2 Youkilis (2 run)
May 9 vs OAK 2 3 Melhuse (2 run); Crosby
May 14 at TB 1 2 Lugo (2 run)
May 19 at COL 2 3 Atkins; Helton (2 run)
May 24 vs TB 1 2 Crawford (2 run)
Jun 20 at ATL 1 1 A.Jones
Jun 25 vs NYM 2 4 Reyes; Beltran (3 run)
TOTAL 16 28

Gustavo Chacin

Date/Opp HR Runs Batters
Apr 12 at BOS 2 3 Mohr; Ortiz (2 run)
Apr 18 vs NYY 2 3 A.Rodriguez (2 run); Giambi
Apr 25 vs BAL 2 2 Tejada; Gibbons
Apr 30 at NYY 1 1 Phillips
May 10 vs OAK 3 5 Melhuse (2 run); Kotsay; Thomas (2 run)
Jun 4 at TB 3 5 Hall; Branyon; Hollins (3 run)
TOTAL 13 19

Scott Downs

Date/Opp HR Runs Batters
Apr 7 vs TB 1 2 Lee (2 run)
Apr 14 at CWS 1 1 Konerko
Apr 21 vs BOS 1 1 Varitek
Jun 9 vs DET 1 2 Polanco (2 run)
TOTAL 4 6

Jason Frasor

Date/Opp HR Runs Batters
Apr 5 vs MIN 1 4 Hunter (4 run)
Apr 7 vs TB 1 1 Hollins
May 24 vs TB 1 1 Hall (2 run) - 1 run charged to Schoeneweis
Jun 4 at TB 1 2 Lugo (3 run) - 1 run charged to Walker
Jun 11 vs DET 1 1 I.Rodriguez (2 run) - 1 run charged to Schoeneweis
Jun 30 vs PHA 1 1 Dellucci
TOTAL 6 10 (13 total runs scored on the HRs)

Justin Speier

Date/Opp HR Runs Batters
Apr 5 vs MIN 1 1 L.Rodriguez
May 24 vs TB 1 2 Wigginton (2 run)
May 29 vs BOS 1 1 Varitek (3 run) - 2 runs charged to Downs
TOTAL 3 4 (6 total runs scored on the HRs)

Pete Walker

Date/Opp HR Runs Batters
Apr 7 vs TB 1 2 Gomes (2 run)
Apr 12 at BOS 1 1 Pena
Apr 30 at NYY 1 2 Giambi (2 run)
May 30 vs BOS 1 1 Nixon
May 31 vs BOS 1 1 Nixon
TOTAL 5 7

Ty Taubenheim

Date/Opp HR Runs Batters
May 20 at COL 1 1 Atkins
Jun 16 at FLA 2 3 Uggla (2 run); Cabrera
Jun 25 vs NYM 1 1 Valentin
TOTAL 4 5

Scott Schoeneweis

Date/Opp HR Runs Batters
Apr 21 vs BOS 1 2 Ramirez (2 run)
Apr 28 at NYY 1 2 B.Williams (2 run)
Jun 12 vs BAL 1 1 R.Hernandez
TOTAL 3 5

A.J. Burnett

Date/Opp HR Runs Batters
Apr 15 at CWS 2 4 Konerko (2 run); Konerko (2 run)
Apr 21 vs BOS 2 3 Ortiz (2 run); Ramirez
TOTAL 4 7

Vinnie Chulk

Date/Opp HR Runs Batters
Apr 7 vs TB 1 3 Wigginton
Apr 11 at BOS 1 1 Ortiz
May 2 at BAL 2 4 Tejada (2 run); R.Hernandez (2 run)
TOTAL 4 8

Francisco Rosario

Date/Opp HR Runs Batters
May 19 at COL 1 1 Carroll
May 28 vs CWS 1 1 Mackowiak
May 31 vs BOS 1 2 Ramirez (2 run)
TOTAL 3 4

Brian Tallet

Date/Opp HR Runs Batters
Apr 13 at BOS 1 2 Ortiz (2 run)
Apr 14 at CWS 1 2 Dye (2 run)
May 1 at BAL 1 1 Tejada (2 run) - 1 run charged to Schoeneweis
May 28 vs CWS 1 1 Dye
TOTAL 4 6 (7 total runs scored on the HRs)

Shawn Marcum

Date/Opp HR Runs Batters
Apr 29 at NYY 1 1 Posada
TOTAL 1 1

Dustin McGowan

Date/Opp HR Runs Batters
Apr 29 at NYY 1 2 Damon (2 run)
TOTAL 1 2


So, to answer Caramon's question - not only Doc does give up homers less often than pretty much everyone else on the staff (except the mighty Mr Ryan) - when he does allow a homer, there are almost never men on base. Ted Lilly has also done a fine job of minimizing the damage, with the exception of that bizarre afternoon when the Tigers were in town.

Whereas that star-crossed entity known as Josh Towers has not only given up an insane number of home runs - on 10 of the 16 occasions there were runners on base. The Big Damaging homer has also been a problem for Casey Janssen (who gives them up as seldom as Doc, it's just that they hurt a lot more) and Jason Frasor.

For those of you who believe, like me, that the big dome by the lake is somewhat HR-friendly to RH hitters, note the HRs allowed totals by the Jays RH and LH pitchers. The RH pitchers have allowed 36 HRs at home (55 per cent) and 29 on the road. The lefties have given up 24 HRs at home (63 per cent), and 14 on the road. It's not that big a difference, although I'm sure Ted Lilly is none too happy about it - he accounts for most of it.
TDIB Saturday: Homers | 14 comments | Create New Account
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Mike Green - Saturday, July 01 2006 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#150064) #
Doc is getting resolution quicker than ever this season, 3.4 pitches per plate appearance.  It might be interesting to see how his P/PA vary depending on whether runners are on or not.  One would guess that he makes significant more P/PA when runners are on base (even more so than an average pitcher would). 

With the addition of Ryan, and the strong offence, Halladay's approach might mirror his 2003 game plan.  Go 7-8 innings, throw 95 pitches and leave with a 2 run lead.  That approach leads to going after hitters more with no one on, and hence more solo homers.  Call it a modified Palmer; whatever it is, it does seem to be working. 

Mike Green - Saturday, July 01 2006 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#150083) #
John Gibbons tells Jordan Bastian that Rios is improving and hopefully will be out of the hospital by Monday. 
Gerry - Saturday, July 01 2006 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#150084) #

The Jays are talking about making a couple of roster moves, one to replace Rios on the active roster through the all-star break and a second to replace Taubenheim in the rotation.

With Wells hurting too the Jays might look to add an outfielder but the options are not great.  The Jays would like to add a righthanded bat to face a lefty pitcher, Hinske and Catalanotto are doing fine against the righties.  John-Ford Griffin, who does have major league experience, is also a lefty and not a very good fielder, so he is a copy of Catalanotto, line-up wise.  Similarly Adam Lind is also a lefty and also not a great outfielder.  The options for a right handed bat are Chad Mottola who does have major league experience or Rob Cosby who has limited experience playing in the outfield.  Wayne Lydon is the other option as he made a good impression in spring training.  I would guess Mottola will get the call.

I don't believe McGowan should be called up now, he is still fighting his control and Taubenheim did well today.  With the all-star break approaching the Jays need one start from Taubenheim between now and July 18th.  McGowan could start in AAA twice in that same time frame to give him more time to get in sync, remember McGowan started the year in the bullpen and missed a recent start with neck stiffness.  If McGowan is called up I will suspect he is being showcased as there doesn't appear to be a great need for him to be here.

Craig B - Sunday, July 02 2006 @ 01:22 AM EDT (#150091) #
Eric Hinske is slugging .824 since the beginning of June. 

And just so everyone knows, the major league record for WHIP (by an ERA qualifier) is Pedro's 0.7373 in 2000... B.J. Ryan's WHIP is 0.6446 and he's on pace for a touch over 80 innings. 

The record for WHIP by a pitcher with 75 or more innings is Eric Gagne in 2003, with 0.6923.  (The record for 50+ innings is Eckersley in 1990 - 73.1 innings, 41 hits, 4 walks for a WHIP of 0.6136).

Any way you slice it, B.J. Ryan is having an historic season, one of the great seasons ever by a pitcher.  And he's garnered not a peep of attention.

Magpie - Sunday, July 02 2006 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#150095) #
Is this possible?

A tie is possible, but probably unlikely. The one tie in Cy Young voting came in 1969, when 24 voters were involved. Each cast a vote for the winner - there were no votes for second or third  - and Mike Cuellar and Denny McLain each got 10 votes. The current voting procedure reduces the chances of that happening.

Furthermore, closers often seem to win by having an historic season (not the case this year, if two guys are doing it) or when there doesn't seem to be a clear-cut choice among the starters. The last AL closer to win was Eckersley in 1992. The two best AL starters, Clemens and Mussina, both won 18 games; and there were three other AL pitchers who won 20 games (Morris, Brown, McDowell) - all of which sufficiently distracted the voters into choosing the guy who pitched 80 innings, and wasn't having his best season.
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