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Six in a row for LA of A.


I didn't actually see the game. I missed the beginning because I was watching Jiri Tlusty, Robbie Earl and Justin Pogge get their kicks in at the Maple Leafs' rookie tournament at the Coliseum. In a wildly entertaining and penalty-filled affair, the Leafs' rookies defeated the Habs' rookies, 6-5 in overtime. Tlusty was really impressive. If you're not a football fan and you're really strapped for something to do this weekend, I'd encourage you to check this tournament out. It's grand inexpensive fun - $8 for a GA ticket - and you get to catch a glimpse of hockey's future from the front row.

I got home at about 11 to find snow on my TV for a couple of hours during the storm that swept through last night. So please forgive the lack of focus on last night's game. I hear it was forgettable. The Halos won 4-1 behind Joe Saunders. Garret Anderson doubled and homered to earn himself Player of the Game honors and a picture in today's TDIB.

1. Ryan Howard is streaking. He hit homers #55 and #56 off lefty(!) Scott Olsen of the Marlins last night in a 3-2 victory to help bring the Phillies within 1.5 games of the Wild Card-leading Padres. Tom Verducci has a take on Howard's dash to 62: "There is room in your head to hold what Maris and Howard did at the same time as you do what Bonds, McGwire and Sosa did. I believe that Howard has more in common with Maris than Bonds, McGwire and Sosa did, and given changes in the game since the Steroid Era, I welcome his run at 62. But will it be a record? It will be a record in this postmodern era, and overall it will be something of a default record no matter what Selig does or doesn't say."

Howard himself puts it simply to Paul Hagen of the Philly Daily News: "People are entitled to their opinions. But it does bother me. It casts a shadow on the game. I know I'm not using steroids. This barrel right here [pointing to his stomach] is proof enough. People are going to say what they want to say. I thought about it once and then it was like, 'Well, whatever.' I'm not doing it. If they want to test me, they can test me. I just think it sucks. The thing about it is, if you're going to make those kinds of comments, have proof. Otherwise, you can ruin people's reputations."

In this era, what historical significance does #62 hold? I mean, I think it means "You reached the pre-90s record without the blatant juicery of the last group of players who did it. It's cool, and if the media like you, you will get your due for having one hell of a season. However, your accomplishments will always be asterisked and therefore diminished, and if you're clean, you will never get the Clean Home Run King Crown to which you are justly entitled because of the media's automatic skepticism. No, it's not fair. That'll probably be the case for the poor sucker who hits 74, who might very well be you next year." But I could be underestimating the media's willingness to genuinely celebrate every player passing Maris' 61. I hope I am.

2. The Tigers face the Twins today. It's Nate Robertson against Boof Bonser. From there, the pitching matchups just get worse for Detroit: they run into Johan tomorrow and Vicente Padilla and Kevin Millwood against Texas.

Detroit leads Minnesota by 4 and the White Sox by 4.5. BP's playoff odds report had the Tigers winning the division 92.7% of the time and the wild card 6.6, missing the playoffs only 0.8% of the time, prior to today's games. Maybe I'm just still in denial about how good the Tigers are, but they're only 8 games above .500 against AL teams that aren't the Royals. If Bonser comes up big for the Twins today, the Tigers can very easily be in big trouble as soon as Wednesday.

3. Win-loss differential by division:

AL East -4
AL Central +31
AL West +29

Note that the AL West only has four teams. Personally, I'd be shocked if this happened again next year.

4. At 10:05 today, 1200 miles on I-10 away from the real sporting attraction of the day, it's Gustavo Chacin and Kelvim Escobar in a battle of Venezuelans at the big A.

Escobar has a 2.00 ERA in 27 career innings against the Jays, though he is only 2-2. Chacin has a 2.37 ERA in 19 career innings against the Angels, and he's 2-0. Both pitchers are coming off excellent outings, Esco against Detroit and Chacin against Boston. A strong September from Chacin should be high on the Jays' wish list right now.

Let the duel begin!
TDIB Saturday: Angels of Anaheim 4, Jays 1 | 62 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Paul D - Saturday, September 09 2006 @ 08:25 AM EDT (#154995) #
From the AP article on the game:

Toronto manager John Gibbons has changed pitchers a major league-leading 418 times.



Pistol - Saturday, September 09 2006 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#155004) #
To think that the current PED testing has made the game clean and pure is naive.

There's still plenty of loopholes in the current drug testing - primarily HGH which can't be detected.  A player can be just as tainted now as he was over the past 10 years.  There's just as much reason to believe Howard is using PEDs as anyone else before him.

Howard had 1 HR every 14.2 ABs last year.  This year it's 10.9, a 23% improvement.  Howard is the same age as Pujols and Dunn yet they both reached the majors years in 2001 while Howard didn't until last year.  But now he's the premier power hitter? 

If one has doubts about the legitamacy of Bonds, Sosa or McGwire and doesn't have the same doubts about Howard I don't they're being consistent.


Pistol - Saturday, September 09 2006 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#155006) #
And to tangent a bit, the public perception is that baseball has/had a big drug problem but that other sports, primarily football, don't have a drug problem.

Then when an article comes out in the last few weeks that detailed a number of Carolina Panthers receiving steroids and HGH in their Super Bowl season a few years ago it was largely ignored, especially when compared to Jason Grimsley and HGH a few months earlier.

I'm not sure why Grimsley was a big deal but the same thing in football, involving a lot more players, barely registered on the radar.

Magpie - Saturday, September 09 2006 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#155007) #
I'm not sure why Grimsley was a big deal but the same thing in football, involving a lot more players, barely registered on the radar.

Because baseball is the National Pastime and football... well, that's just something people like to bet on.

I'm serious. And it was always thus. Ninety years ago, it was business as usual as politicians and businessmen and corporations were revealed as bribe-taking and dispensing crooks. (Hello, Teapot Dome!) But when a few ballplayers got together to throw some games, the world came to an end...

It's one thing for you and me and quarterbacks and airplane pilots to take drugs. But not baseball players.
CaramonLS - Saturday, September 09 2006 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#155009) #
Pistol, if Ryan Howard let MLB take a sample of his blood and keep it, would you be more accepting of his accomplishment (knock on wood)? 

I know I would.  I know the idea has been bantied about.
VBF - Saturday, September 09 2006 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#155010) #

If one has doubts about the legitamacy of Bonds, Sosa or McGwire and doesn't have the same doubts about Howard I don't they're being consistent.

I don't think many people had doubts about the authenticity of Bonds, Sosa, and McGwire while they were in the process of breaking each other's records. I think it's what developed later that cast a black shadow on Bonds and McGwire--McGwire admitting to using greenies legally, and just about everyone who worked around Bonds stating that he did them. Sosa's a little different because while we all heavily suspect he did them, he never really failed anything.

I'll have to see a bit more evidence before I can condemn Howard for doing anything that would dishonour the game. If baseball is at the point where nobody trusts the authenticity of an amazing feat being accomplished, then I have no idea why we even watch it at all.

Named For Hank - Saturday, September 09 2006 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#155011) #
Pistol, if Ryan Howard let MLB take a sample of his blood and keep it, would you be more accepting of his accomplishment (knock on wood)?

For me, this would entirely depend on the nuts-and-bolts of their testing policy, which I don't have much knowledge of.  If it's anything like the NHL, though, you can use whatever agents you like to disguise what you're taking, because in hockey those masking agents are not outlawed.  Of course, we wouldn't know this if Jose Theodore hadn't been caught using such an agent by the IOC during the run up to Olympic hockey -- he was using a hair growth stimulant, apparently for it's actual intended use.  I am not saying that Theodore is or was using steroids.  But because the NHL has no problem with him using the hair growth agent, they'd never be able to tell if he was using steroids.

That is the problem with these testing policies -- the NHL one is certainly nothing more than a grab for positive publicity.  It is designed with a great big hole in the middle of it, to allow players to use whatever they want, whenever they want.
Pistol - Saturday, September 09 2006 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#155013) #
if Ryan Howard let MLB take a sample of his blood and keep it, would you be more accepting of his accomplishment

No more than if he didn't.

The problem is that you can't go back in time and know what really happened in 1998, 1999, 2001 or for that matter 1961 or 1927.
Ron - Saturday, September 09 2006 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#155014) #
Once again Rios almost bumps into Wells into the OF while a fly ball is in the air. I believe this has happened at least 6 or 7 times this season. Both guys need to talk and tell the other when I say I have it, that means you back off and let me catch it.

Ever since AJ came back from his injury, the Jays have been playing sub .500 baseball. I expect the Jays to finish the season with around 85 wins which will make me scratch my head.

How could a team only win around 5 more games when you add Burnett, Molina, Glaus, Overbay, and Ryan and only lose one significant piece from last years squad (Hudson)? And I have to mention Doc has been healthy the whole season (minus one start)  while he didn't pitch one inning in the 2nd half last year. You can't say the Jays have faced improved teams in the AL East because that isn't true. The D-Rays and O's are dreadful again. The Red Sox are having a poor season while the Yanks are doing good.

The Jays have also recieved career years from Ryan, Johnson, Overbay, Wells, and Rios.

Did Chacin and Towers performance make that much of a difference this season?



DiscoDave - Saturday, September 09 2006 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#155022) #
Player,                        Year,     G,       AB,     R,     H,     2B,   3B,  HR,  RBI,   BB,    SO,     BA,     OBP,    SLG
Orlando Hudson,         2005,    131,    461,    62,    125,    25,    5,    10,    63,    30,    65,    .271,    .315,    .412
Aaron Hill,                   2006,    134,    471,    60,    135,    23,    3,    3,      40,    33,    58,    .287,    .340,    .367

This looks like a wash to me, except that Hill is cheeper than O-Dog.

Batista vs Ryan?  Ryan hands down, and dont bring up putting Batista in the rotation.  He stunk up the joint in '04, no reason he wouldnt have in '06.

Koskie vs Glaus?  Lets see, Koskie spent much of '05 on the DL and found himself on the DL again this year.  Glaus has become the big scary bat behind Vernon.  I think the Jay's came out ahead with the 06 version of 3b than in 05.

The worse than expected win total this year is directly pointing at the poor performances from the 2-5 pitcher in the rotation.  If the Jays got a full season from AJ and he won 12 times (not too much to expect really), if Towers doesnt implode and wins 10, Chacin gives the jays 15 wins and the three headed monster of Ty, Casey and Shawn win 10 games the Jays are looking pretty good right now, but we aren't because this didnt happen.
Magpie - Saturday, September 09 2006 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#155023) #
However keep in mind that Hudson, Koskie, Bush, Batista, and for all intents and purposes Adams are all missing from last year's team.

But seeing as how only one of those guys is a pitcher, and that pitcher worked less than 100 innings last year... it doesn't much matter.

The difference between the 2005 and 2006 team is almost entirely a matter of pitching. The offense in 2005 was almost exactly league average - they scored 775 runs, league average was 771. The offense in 2006 is likewise exactly league average, having scored 701 runs against a league average of 698. Many people have pointed out that the 2005 offense wasn't really that good - they had to be very lucky or they had to overachieve to score as many runs as they did. No one saying that about this this year's offense - it is genuinely better, but because it hasn't been as... flukey? - effectively, there's been no real change.

However, the pitching in 2005 was considerably better than league average - they allowed 705 runs and the league average was 758. Not this year. This year's staff has allowed 675 runs, and an average AL staff has allowed 682.

How much all this is pitching, how much defense? I think it's mostly pitching, and mostly the back end of the rotation. Josh Towers was a good pitcher in 2005, and Gustavo Chacin was better than average. They worked more than 400 innings in 2005. This year...

Defensively, the big changes have been in the infield. Overbay is better than Hinske and Hillenbrand...Hill has been pretty good at 2b, although not as good as the 2005 Hudson. Hill and Adams have been terrible at short, McDonald has been pretty good. Third base was split between Koskie and Hillenbrand - Glaus is better than one of those guys, not as good as the other....
ken_warren - Saturday, September 09 2006 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#155024) #
How could a team only win around 5 more games when you add Burnett, Molina, Glaus, Overbay, and Ryan and only lose one significant piece from last years squad (Hudson)? And I have to mention Doc has been healthy the whole season (minus one start)  while he didn't pitch one inning in the 2nd half last year. You can't say the Jays have faced improved teams in the AL East because that isn't true. The D-Rays and O's are dreadful again. The Red Sox are having a poor season while the Yanks are doing good.

Let's take a look and see what is going on.

                            2005 WARP2          2006 WARP2      Extrapolated

Halladay               7.2                                 7.9                         9.1
Lilly                      2.3                                 4.4                         5.1
Chacin                5.7                                 1.3                         1.5
Towers               5.6                                (1.0)                      (1.0)
Bush                   3.2
Downs                2.3                                 2.1                         2.4
Burnett                                                     3.0                         3.5
Janssen                                                    1.9                         1.9
Marcum                                                     1.4                         1.6

Spier                   2.9                                  1.2                         1.2
Frasor                 3.0                                  1.2                         1.4
SS                        2.7                                  0.5                         0.5
Walker                 3.7                                  0.2                         0.2
Chulk                   1.4                                  0.3                         0.3
League                0.1                                  1.4                         1.6
Batista                 3.7
Ryan                                                             6.5                         7.5
Tallet                                                           1.2                          1.4

Zaun                    4.2                                    3.0                        3.5
Huckaby              0.4
Molina                                                           2.3                        2.7
Hillenbrand         4.9                                     1.4                        1.4
Overbay                                                         5.1                        5.9
Hinske                 3.0                                    2.0                        2.0
Hudson               6.3
Hill                        3.5                                    5.3                        6.1
Koskie                 3.2     
Glaus                                                             5.9                        6.8
Adams                 2.2                                    0.1                         0.1
McDonald            1.1                                   0.8                          0.9
Wells                    6.0                                   6.5                          7.5
Rios                     3.5                                    5.1                         5.9
Catalanotto         4.3                                    4.9                         5.7
Johnson              2.9                                    6.1                         7.1

                            89.3                                                                 93.8

So it appears that the 2006 Blue Jays are about 4.5 wins better than the 2005 version.

A comparison by position:

                                2005            2006      Improvement

Starters                  26.3              24.1           (2.2)
Closer                      3.7                7.5             3.8
Bullpen                  13.8                6.6            (7.2)  

Pitching                  43.8              38.2           (5.6)

Catching                    4.6                6.2            1.6
1B/DH                        7.9               9.3             1.4
2B                               6.3               6.1            (0.2)
3B                               6.7               6.8              0.1
SS                               3.3               1.0            (2.3)
OF                             16.7             26.2             9.5

Position Players       45.5              55.6            10.1
 
Total                         89.3              93.8             4.5

Huge improvements - outfield with all the same players
Significant improvement - closer, 1B/DH, catcher
Significant drop - starting pitching, shortstop
Huge drop - bullpen (excluding closer)



Magpie - Saturday, September 09 2006 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#155026) #
Significant drop - starting pitching, shortstop
Huge drop - bullpen (excluding closer)


Which does cut nicely to the chase. The starting pitching has fallen off, despite the fact that Halladay's been Halladay all season long. And the bullpen has been a huge disappointment, Ryan's brilliance notwithstanding. Ryan's brilliance, in fact, goes a long way towards masking how much the bullpen has slipped from 2005.
CeeBee - Saturday, September 09 2006 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#155027) #

And I'd be willing to bet that a fair bit of the bullpen implosion was caused by the implosion further up the chain with the 2-5 starting pitchers. There had to be a lot more games where the starters didn't last 5 innings this year compared to last, though maybe the bullpen was due for a fall anyway IF they were an over achieving bunch last year. Injuries surely played a part as well.

melondough - Saturday, September 09 2006 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#155028) #

It's been a while since I visited the site - hello again!  I am sorry but I cannot find a recent thread referring to the news of an increase coming to the Blue Jays budget.  So, excuse me for posting here if inappropriate. 

I am wondering if anyone can confirm the Jays 2007 committed payroll numbers below.  This comes from mlbtraderumors.com who got thier information from this link: http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/toronto-blue-jays_05.html.  MLB Trade Rumors points out that IF the Blue Jays do get a payroll increase to $100 million, then they would have approx. $40 million to spend next season ($10 million for LUGO?).  Looking through the numbers from the MLB Contracts link above, I am not certain that the bonus numbers have been accounted for correctly.  Also, I wonder how they account for expected salary increases for certain players like Overbay.

C -
1B - Lyle Overbay - $3MM
2B - Aaron Hill - $0.4MM
SS - John McDonald - $0.5MM
3B - Troy Glaus - $10.75MM
LF - Adam Lind - $0.3MM, Reed Johnson - $2MM
CF - Vernon Wells - $5.6MM
RF - Alex Rios - $0.4MM

SP - Roy Halladay - $12.8MM
SP - A.J. Burnett - $12MM
SP - Gustavo Chacin - 0.4MM
SP -
SP - Shaun Marcum/Casey Janssen - $0.3MM

RP - B.J. Ryan - $5MM
RP - Jeremy Accardo - $0.4MM
RP - Jason Frasor - $0.4MM
RP - Scott Downs - $0.8MM
RP - Josh Towers - $2.9MM
RP - Brandon League - $0.3MM 
RP - Francisco Rosario - $0.3MM

Stan N - Saturday, September 09 2006 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#155029) #
And to echo what has been said elsewhere many times --the starting rotation woes play right into the bullpen woes, since taxing any bullpen for innings the way this '06 pen has been taxed, will inevitably lead to performance slippage.
TDIB Saturday: Angels of Anaheim 4, Jays 1 | 62 comments | Create New Account
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