Mike Emeigh of Baseball Think Factory has posted the 2007 draft order. The Jays pick 21st in what is reputed to be a deep draft. Who might be available in the first round when #21 comes around?
If the Jays are interested in Julio Lugo and Gil Meche they might not keep this pick. Picks in the bottom half of the draft can be lost to free agent signings.
The Jays may or may not sign a Type A free agent who has been offered arbitration by his former club. Any thoughts on who they may be giving up if they do?
For what it's worth, Keith Law didn't think the 07 draft class was all that strong (although I can't source that right now). But this year was seen as especially weak so perhaps it depends on your perspective.
Projecting anything out of the top 10 at this point is difficult. It's difficult enough to project outside the top 10 a month before the draft.
As for the Jays, from Ricciardi's comment it sounds like Lilly won't be back, but arbitration is certainly a lock. Assuming no rule changes (which would be tough to enact for this year's draft) the Jays would pick up a couple picks. If they sign a replacement they'll toss one back. And this is obviously one of the flaws in the system.
Speier also should be offered arbitration. If the Jays don't sign him before free agency he'll be gone as someone will give him in excess of Scott Eyre money (3 for $11).
Cat is interesting. If he's offered arbitration I can't see a team signing him so he'd almost certainly accept and I think the Jays would be good to take him for just one year. That might be the best strategy for Zaun too. I can't imagine anyone giving up a pick to sign him so it'd force him to accept arbitration and then he could be locked in for just one year as well.
Molina - just say no to arbitration.
So if I were to guess I'd say Lilly and Speier end up elsewhere and the Jays take the 4 picks, Zaun and Cat sign for one year, and the Jays sign a pitcher to replace Lilly giving up their current pick at #21. If Lugo were the SS option the 2nd round pick would be given up. I suspect the Jays will end up with at least two more picks between now and the draft.
Going back to Keith Law, I believe he said that nothing has been officially announced/clubs haven't been told about compensation changes, making it in effect impossible to change compensation this year at such a late date.
For what it's worth, Rob Neyer thought (thinks?) that the Jays should trade Wells, and that the Jays were one of the three best non Playoff teams in baseball, along with the White Sox and Angels.
For what it's worth, Rob Neyer thought (thinks?) that the Jays should trade Wells, and that the Jays were one of the three best non Playoff teams in baseball, along with the White Sox and Angels.