Looks like Downs and Sparky have signed as well, also splitting the difference.

Rios, Sparky and Downs are good news, this isn't...

proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=14473

Will Carroll says that Roy's forearm injury is not healed and may become a problem. Yikes! Anyone seen JP pitch? 

I obviously have no idea if it's true or not, but I'm skeptical of any news or rumours that break in an online fantasy chat. Someone in Ohio heard rumours that Halladay is still hurt? I read any Jays news I can find, and I haven't heard any rumours. Carol has "been told" Halladay's forearm still hurts - by who? Brad Arnsberg? Roy's personal trainer? The towel boy at his gym?
 
I've gotta think that "Blue Jays Ace Still Hurting! Season Already Over!" is a headline any number of news sources, both local and national, would love to run, and at least a few of them wouldn't hold out for a heck of a lot of verification. So if there is a serious problem, I'm surprised we haven't heard something about it already.

    To be accurate, the Halladay rumor is not merely being tossed around by a chatter in Ohio -- it's being propagated by a published author who specializes in baseball injuries and is often described as the top injury pundit in the business.   That's not to say it's true -- just to say that it can't be easily dismissed.   Does anyone know if Will Carroll actually does have a good record of revealing injuries and predicting their impact?    If this rumor is true, it has the potential to blow the entire season for the Jays.  So, is Carroll a credible source with a strong record of accuracy?

Here's the text:

Halladay has had some musclular tightness and that has to worry everyone.  Forearm problems have become code for elbow injuries, but this, I'm told, is precisely the problem. He's cramping. Lets hope that's all it is and watch him in early spring training for any indicators of control problems.

I would think it'd be a bigger story if there was more than the usual concern.

Rotoworld, from the Toronto Sun, had this to say about ten days ago:

"I've talked to Doc and his forearm feels great, he has done a lot of extension work on it," pitching coach Brad Arnsberg said. "But during spring training we're going to try to save some of his bullets for the regular season and guard him a little more cautiously than we've done in the past." If Halladay has more forearm issues anyway, he could be one to avoid on draft day.

Very intresting. Maybe the gathering up a Zambrano, Ohka and Thomson is more than just trying add pitching depth for the sake of it or hoping to make better odds for catching lightning in a bottle.

The Blue Jays appear to have the best outfield in baseball, and the pitching will be the most exciting in a long time because of the injury drama.  As Lefty says, we have depth and it's thanks to JP loading up. Let's not forget the 32 year old Venezuelan super-sleeper, Geremi Gonzalez, who as of January 26th, mlb.com says, sparkled in the VWL playoffs with a 2.63 ERA in 27+ innings and good Ks. Blue Jays have an advantage with Venezuelan players, politically, and are wise to make the most of it.

"So, is Carroll a credible source with a strong record of accuracy?"

It depends.  Generally, I'd say that he's one of the least trustworthy sources on the Internet.  He's frequently been willing to post bombastic rumors (notably: Pete Rose will be reinstated by Bud Selig, a major player on the Yankees tested positive for steroids during the playoffs, I can train anyone I want to throw a gyroball) that have little basis in fact.  So no, he's not credible, and he's not the kind of source that you should trust without anyone else backing him up.  That being said, his record with injury rumors is better.   I wouldn't trust him, but it's certainly possible that Halladay's arm isn't 100%.  I just wouldn't worry about it right now. 

The Blue Jays appear to have the best outfield in baseball

That's silly. Johnson/Wells/Rios is very nice, sure, and it's even better if Lind breaks out and Johnson is the backup at all three positions. But the current Jay OF the best in baseball? You can make a pretty good case that it's the fourth-best outfield in the AL East.

Now, you didn't say "best OF for the cost," so tell me how Johnson/Wells/Rios is better than Abreu/Damon/Matsui (maybe defensively, but I think that's a wash) or better than Drew/Crisp/Ramirez (again, maybe defensively)? And, this may be a reach, but I think there is a decent chance that the best OF in the division may be in Tampa Bay, where the potential of Crawford/Baldelli/Young should scare the living crap out of D-Ray opponents (not that the rest of the team has much to offer. Meh.) ...

That's off the top of my head and I haven't even started in on the Cleveland or LAA outfields, and even that would still be stuck in the A.L. ... so unless Rios turns into Juan Gonzalez '95 and Lind comes on a lot faster than most think he will, hold off on the hyperbole. It's still Vernon and The Rest out there for now.

The Yankee who tested positive for performance enhancing drugs was Matt Lawton. The problem wasn't the rumor itself, but the way Carroll presented it:

Carroll: "I really can't talk about [who tested positive] right now. It should be coming out within the next two weeks."

[SportsBloggersLive]: "Is this a name we're actually going to care about?"

Carroll: "Yes."

In a later interview, after all sorts of rumors were spread about who the player was, Carroll backpedaled with "I think as baseball fans, we should care about any athlete." The player was then revealed to be Matt Lawton, reserve outfielder for the Yankees. Lawton had 48 ABs with NY, hitting .125/.263/.250. He either wasn't on the Yankees playoff roster or he was and never got into a single playoff game.

 My problem isn't with the rumor itself, it's the way Carroll presented it. By saying (paraphrased) "it's an outfielder on an AL playoff team that we should care about", Carroll ignited a firestorm of rumors about Gary Sheffield, Vlad Guerrero, Scott Podsednik, and Steve Finley testing positive. Carroll's smart enough to know what he said and how it would be received by internet baseball nerds, but when he was called on it, he tried to be coy. No-one cares if Ryan Franklin or Matt Lawton tests positive, but Carroll still spread the alarmist "An unnamed outfielder in the playoffs TESTED POSTIVIE FOR STEROIDS!!!!" rumor.

I liken Will Carroll to Ken Rosenthal. Each has an area of expertise and when removed from it, offers very little.

In Rosenthal's case, his strength is breaking stories. He has unmatched insider access. But when it comes to analysis, he's pedestrian. Just another Kurkjian.

Will Carroll seems very knowledgeable about the nature of sports injuries. But when he comments more broadly on the game, he's basically the last person at BP I want to hear. That he's seemingly self-important makes him even more difficult to take.

how Johnson/Wells/Rios is better than Abreu/Damon/Matsui (maybe defensively, but I think that's a wash)

Looking at John Dewan's article on team defense in the Hardball Times annual, the Jays were +52 in the OF in 2006 (ranking 2nd), and had the best throwing OF (in terms of assists and holding runners).  The Yankee OF was -15 (ranking 27th) and ranked 19th throwing.  Granted the Yankees didn't have Matsui and Abreu for the whole year, but I'm guessing they don't make up that much of a difference.  I've never seen either rated as anything above simply average.

And even not using anything tangible (on the field), the Jays have 3 OFs whose average age is 27/28 while the Yankees have 3 OFs whose average age is 32/33.  Intuitively they should be better.

 But the current Jay OF the best in baseball? You can make a pretty good case that it's the fourth-best outfield in the A.L. East.

Well, what do the actual numbers say? I used the Hardball Times runs created model, because its a counting stat and it utilizes park factors. Each of the previously mentioned players were equalized    to 600 plate appearances for 2006. Here's the results;

Yanks-306
BJays-288
BoSox-287
TBay-  280

Pretty close. Offensively, all things being equal  the Yankee trio had the best output. Now obviously defense  has to be factored in.

This is a bit more difficult, but we can use Chris Dial's range based model ( with a little help from Dave Pinto's PMR for guys like Matsui who were hurt and didn't make Dials cut) to try to get a sense of defensive value. At any rate here's the runs saved above/below average per 150 games   for 2006.

-Blue Jays + 40
-TBay +8 ( Young was given a league average mark as he wasn't on either metric. BPro's numbers had him at -4 in only 28 games so I may be a bit too generous here)
-Yanks 0
-BoSox  -56 (most ranged base stats have trouble with the Green Monster so your on your own here. I doubt with Manny in left that Boston is much above league average regarding range)

Keep in mind these numbers do not factor in throwing, but frankly, using 2006 numbers as a projection, the Jays outfield is quite competitive with it's peer group.  



 

 

 

    In today's Globe,  JP denies that Doc is having any arm troubles.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20070207.JAYS07/TPStory/Sports

Alex Rios is, in one man's opinion, a leading breakout  candidate. Make that two (<raises hand>). 

It is interesting to see reference to ball-in-play data in a mlb.com article- the author refers to Rios' increased fly-ball tendency in 2006.  That might be a first.

SI.com has the Athlon Sports baseball season preview up.

OPS is, of course, a fairly crude attempt to unify two disparate statistics.  GPA uses 1.8*OBP plus slugging percentage.  Tangotiger has done some work on making it a little more precise.  The relative importance of OBP to slugging percentage in the current environment appears to be between 1.7 and 1.8 to 1. 

Not to nitpick Mike, because I respect your baseball acumen and Tangotiger's work, but Mark Pankin's also done some great work in this area, which he presented at SABR 36, which demonstrates that as RS (runs scored) increases, so too does the OBP/SLG ratio. His work suggests that the OBP/SLG ratio in the 10 seasons of 1996-2005 is about 1.95. This ratio has been as low as 1.53 (1908 [deadball era] and 1968 [the year of the pitcher]) and as high as 2.05 (1930 [highest offensive output in history] and 2000 [the height of the steroids era?]). The average between the high of 2.05 and the low of 1.53 is 1.79, so I think that's where the 1.7 to 1.8 number comes from, but that's more reflective of all of baseball history and I think fails to capture the current era of explosive offense. I could just be being a tad anal though.  ;)

The link to Pankin's article re: the ratio of OBP/SLG, which was triggered by De Podesta's statement in "Moneyball" that OBP is worth 3 times as much as SLG is here. As Pankin shows, perhaps it is worth this much and more in some slots in the order, but as a whole across the league it is not and it varies with league run scoring. Let me know what you think. I think at the very least, it's interesting and contributes to understanding the game better, but I may be off base.

Tango is using post-2000 statistics in what I have described as "the current environment" for the purpose of the weighting of OBP and slugging.  As you can see from the comments in the link, Tango agrees that the weighting should vary over time and context.

DePodesta's comment is, I am almost sure, about perception rather than reality.  At the time he made the comment, baseball executives (in DePodesta's opinion) undervalued incremental improvements in OBP and overvalued incremental improvements in slugging percentage.  The $ cost of incremental OBP improvements was accordingly (if DePodesta was right) 1/3 the cost of equivalent incremental slugging improvements. 

It's kind of like Bobby Grich and Ryne Sandberg.  Sandberg had more power.  Grich got on base more.  Their gloves were pretty comparable.  If their equivalents were both available on the free agent market in 2006-2007, the idea is that the Sandberg equivalent would have gotten significantly more money.  That is probably still true, but it is a different question than whether Sandberg or Grich created more runs per 600 plate appearances at their best. 

Shannon Stewart has signed a 1 year deal with the A's for $1 million plus another possible $1.5 in bonuses.

So as BP points out today Ronnie Belliard is still available.  I wonder if he'd take a major league minimum plus incentives type deal to be plan B in case SS doesn't work out (move Hill to SS, Belliard at 2B).  I'd rather have that then Royce Clayton at SS.

action: As I show in the link, it's extremely easy to figure out the balance between OBP and SLG.  You can also use:

http://www.tangotiger.net/customlwts.html

to check what it should be for any run environment.  Or, do a search for "Ruane" on my site, use his actual LWTS for each year, and figure out the OBP/SLG balance.  Just a little roll-up sleeve time.