In other baseball news, the Nats beat John Smoltz last night for their second win this season.

And as such, the magic number for the Nats being eliminated from division title contention remains at 148.

On Hill: this is the kind of offense we wanted from Orlando Hudson during his tenure in Toronto.

Hudson's 350/450 2006 season meant that he out-VORPed Glaus 31 to 29. Throw in a Gold Glove and you've got a hell of a player, one much more valuable than our third baseman (I'm comparing Hudson to Glaus because of the trade, of course).

I'm not sure that Hill is ready to morph into a 350/450 hitter just yet, but if he is, that would of course be tremendously valuable. And ahead of schedule.

Some nice thoughts on the Jays/Tigers rivalry in the Detroit Free Press:

http://www.freepress.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070412/BLOG17/70412030/1050/SPORTS

I'm not sure that .350/.450 is unreasonable for Hill.  He'd probably overachieving a little in the power department right now, and he's particularly enjoying playing at home.  But if he manages to keep his average high and avoid those really prolonged slumps from last season, then .300/.350/.450 makes for a nice second baseman.

Now if only they had Jose Reyes at short.

And I agree, Hudson's offensive value was really underrated.  Especially from the left side, he's a very competent hitter.  Being in a hitter's park and a good young lineup and batting near the top of the order, he's going to get some decent numbers.  His range will likely start declining in the next couple of years but he may actually be rounding into form as a hitter. 

I did say at the time that you throw in Glaus' heavy four year contract and brittle joints and the trade did favour the D-Backs.  It would have been nice to get someone younger and more durable for Hudson.

   It's a good thing the bullpen has pitched so strongly this year.   Brandon League has just been placed on the 15-day DL list, and he seems nowhere close to coming back. "He's not ready to pitch," Ricciardi says in today's papers.   So forget all that talk of him recovering his strength in extended spring training.  He's not coming back any time soon.  So we're very lucky that Frasor has proven to be such a spectacular replacement, less than a year after the fiasco of the early months of his 2006 season.

    The bullpen has been a pleasant surprise, but what happens if/when Janssen and/or Marcum are put into the rotation? 

The bullpen has been a pleasant surprise, but what happens if/when Janssen and/or Marcum are put into the rotation? 

I think you might see Zambrano in the rotation before Janssen and Marcum.  Like you alluded to, Janssen and to a lesser extent Marcum have helped the bullpen immensely and if Zambramo can be a solid #4 then they will probably use him that way.

Don't forget our wild card: Dustin McGowan. A lot of people seem to think he will break out this  year which would be huge for us.

Putting League on the 15 day DL doesn't affect the roster at all since he wasn't on the 25 man roster and he's still on the 40 man.  Now if he was put on the 60 day DL that would be another story since it would open up room on the 40.

Off topic but what happened to Rosario after he was traded to Philly.  Haven't seen any sign of him in the majors or AAA.

Hill's OPS by month last year went 483, 827, 787, 858, 515, 880. Four very-good-to-excellent months and two absolutely horrible ones. So depending on what caused those slumps and whether or not he can avoid, or at least lessen, them this year, it's not out of the question that he hits something like 323/375/452 (his line from May '06) .

Which would be quite nice.

Zambrano/Arroyo

It's actually Zambrano/Harang and both are getting pounded. As the late, great Kurt Vonnegut would say, so it goes.

Any ideas who's going to pitch for the jays in the boston series? The second game would be Halladay's normal day to go, and with the off day on Chacin's day does that mean they'll run Chacin, Halladay, and Burnett? I think Wilner talked about the first game being Chacin vs Dice-K, and i can't see them pushing Halladay back for Ohka. Anyone know?

Looks like Chacin/Okha/Halladay according to the Jays website.

Shannon Stewart appears to be limping to the end of his career with a 195/214/244 start to the season.

 Or maybe it's just, you know, the middle of April. Are Albert Pujols, Jason Giambi, Manny Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Michael Young, and Ichro Suzuki all done, too?

Why aren't the Jays skipping Ohka and having Halladay and Burnett throw against the Red Sox on regular rest?  In my opinion, pushing them back a day here and there will cost the Jays wins.

I agree with Pistol in that Ohka is the pitcher with whom I have the least confidence in.  His next two scheduled starts are against Boston, and if Pappi and his friends take Ohka to school, which I believe they will, it might lead to Janssen, or Marcum getting their shot in the rotation.  (Though it will probably end up being Zambrano)

Regarding Maldoff's comment about M'K'Gowan, I too would like to see him get a couple of months of regular starts in AAA.  However, if his next three or four starts go like his first two did, and one or more of the Jays' starters are getting bombed, he may force the Jays' hand and get called up in May.

Finally, Troy Glaus.  He scares me with his injuries.  There are no real replacements for him in the farm system if he goes down for an extended period of time.  Even if (big if) Balbino Fuenmayor develops perfectly he still won't be ready until at least a year after Glaus' contract expires.  Acquiring a good back-up that can play 3B should be top priority for J.P.  The injuries to Johnson and Glaus have showed just how weak the Jays' bench is.

Regarding Brandon League being placed on the DL. I remember published comments -- at the time -- of demotion to the effect that this was an unfair assignment and that he should have been placed on the DL immediately as assignment  to Syracuse meant he would draw a minor league salary and his service clock would be stopped.

Rotoworld today is speculating that indeed, League's agent has negotiated League onto the DL from the minors.

I'm wondering if Ricciardi was taking care of business by sliding him to the minors or being vindictive that League may have injured himself over the winter.

This was all very peculiar.

Not that the being assigned to the minors doesn't send the right message sometimes. Last year when Frasor was sent down I was very much in favour of the move. When Frasor came back his stuff was better and his determination was screwed on straight.

Blair says Lind will up for Saturday's game.

http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070413.wspt-jays-johnson-13/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/home

Wading into the debate on starting pitching vis-'a-vis Ohka, Towers versus Janssen, Marcum, Zambrano and all other worthy contenders.

Theres an old saying in high wire professions. "Whatever you do, don't panic.

Thats what I'm seeing after so many posts the past coupe days concerning the 3 - 4 and 5 spots in the order.

Why don't we all take a pill and relax and wait to see if Marcum and Janssen are really going to be for real. And yes to those who might point out, it likely will be Zambrano that gets the first shot. If his health and conditioning allow for it.

Right now young Janssen and Marcum are succeeding in their given role.  If they keep suceeding one of them will eventually be asked to go 4 or so innings. The last thing I want to see is them jerked from role to role. Lets let that progression work itself out. If Ohka or Towers are designated or released this week and Janssen or Marcum fail then we're all idiots including the GM.

Regarding Rosario and his trade to the Phils - given that Davis Romero is out for the season, couldn't the Jays have transferred him to the 60 day DL and freed up a spot on the 40 man for Rosario? It seemed as if his arm might have been worth another look, and at worst a trip to Syracuse. 

And given the dearth, and price, of pitching, one could be excused for thinking that Rosario would have been a better occupant on the 40 man than let's say... Santos, who's now been demoted to New Hampshire.

I'm excited to see Lind, but will he become a free agent a year earlier now if he stays up?  If Lind hits the ball really well in the two weeks he's here and his defense is passable, I imagine he'll stay.  The Jays' bench might become a lot stronger with Johnson becoming a great 4th outfielder and Stairs being limited to pinch-hitting duties.

Has anyone seen how Lind's defense has been this year?

Any thoughts on who might lead off for the Jays for the next few weeks?  Will it continue to be Rios or will Hill get bumped up with Rios hitting 2nd and Overbay offering protection for Thomas until Glaus gets back?

Stairs is hitting .476 (10-for-21) with three home runs and eight RBIs against Bonderman. So here's believing in small sample sizes.

I couldn't see the game (I have ExpressVu...blah).  I couldn't hear the game (computer speakers are busted).  I had to watch the scores refresh on ESPN, which is sad, actually.

How awesome was Halladay?  How did Rios look at the plate?  (I see he hit his first homerun).  Did Rodney just mess up on the two bunts in the 10th?  (Must be like a bad nightmare for Detroit fans).  Man, I wish I could have seen or heard that game.

Great win when you load the bases without hitting a ball out of the infield.  For those of you without extra innings here is what happened...

Hill chopper to third, beat it by half a step

Smith bunt to first base side, 70 feet towards first base, Rodney picked up the ball in his glove and shoveled it to second baseman covering first but the ball ballooned out of his glove and Smith was safe by a step.  Rodney should have left it to Casey who probably could have got the ball to first.

MacDonald pop up bunt towards third, Inge didn't come in, Rodney picked it but his momentum was going towards third and he didn't even make a throw.

Rios then hit a fly ball to medium centre field.

Excellent execution by the Jays, Smith's bunt was very good, Johnny Mac is not a great bunter, and he did get it up in the air, but it was perfectly placed.

Its also excellent to get a win with Reed and Troy out, and not to waste a great start by the doctor.

Halladay: 107 pitches in ten innings for the win.

I guess he could have gone 11 if necessary.

The team needed something positive after the past couple days and Doc delivered. Wow.

while I think that was an unbelievable performance, I think we should consider the implications of running halladay out there for the 9th. I know he still looked strong but Roy has proven that at this kind of clip he breaks down -- you have to throttle him back a little bit especially only 3 (maybe 4?) starts into the season. I hope he doesn't get a tired shoulder again this year - he's not a 230+ inning guy, he shouldn't be treated like one

turn it over Jannsen in the 10th I think... but it worked out

Actually, Leyland stated in an interview after the game he wouldn't have forgiven himself if he had sent Bonderman out for the 10th and something "freaky" happened that cost him the game after such a great performance. A somewhat strange thought considering I thought the goal of the game is to win and Bonderman clearly was their best chance to win last night....

As for Doc not being a 230+ inning guy, I don't know where that stance comes from. Certainly not from the combined 505+ innings thrown over the 2002-2003 seasons. If not for Kevin freakin' Mench he would have been there again in 2005, and despite the forearm discomfort last year he threw 220. With a refined approach to his off season throwing program and a shift away from the reliance on his cutter, I see no reason to worry excessively about his innings at this point.

Without being able to talk to the pitcher or catcher directly

The proxy identifiers for the likely onset of fatigue that you mentioned -- pitch count, innings, time -- are very necessary because of the seeming unreliability of the pitchers themselves to either recognize or acknowledge fatigue. And catchers, forced into the unenviable position of having to tattle on fatigued pitchers and possibly harm their working relationship, certainly cannot be expected to be highly objective. The decision that fatigue has likely set in invariably needs to come from an outside adjudicator, be it the manager or the pitching coach.

It has certainly been documented that young pitchers are especially at risk of injury from over-stress. So in the case of Felix Hernandez, for instance, where he might not feel or exhibit fatigue after 110 pitches, and certainly would never come out of a game at his own suggestion, it's up his manager to be the arbiter of what's best for him, even if it runs contradictory to what's best for the team at that moment. (That said, we'll see how just good an arbiter Hargrove will be while he's simultaneously trying to save his own job by winning ballgames.)

All of this is to say that I agree that none of us here can say for sure whether it was wise for Halladay to pitch the 10th or whether he could have easily gone on and pitched the 11th with no ill effect.

On that basis, why should Mike Hargrove worry if Felix Hernandez breaks down at age 29? Chances are very slim that either of them will still be in Seattle.

Hargrove should worry about the breakdown happening at age 22 or 23. Of course, Hargrove will probably be gone by then too.

Chuck, I'm not sure if I disagree with you or not as I'm unclear as to how you are suggesting that manager's make their decisions.  I do think that managers need to consider pitch count, innings, etc., but I don't think that's all.  However I do disagree specifically with some things that you state (and or imply).

My comments were a sloppy mix of two separate ideas. My apologies for any confusion. On the one hand, there is the need to recognize fatigue for the purposes of removing a pitcher who is becoming ineffective (and, to a smaller extent, who is running the risk of hurting himself). On the other hand, there is a separate need to monitor the workload of especially young arms for whom it has been argued (by the likes of Pete Palmer) that there is an especially perilous risk of injury from continued overuse.

Halladay, and his 10-inning outing, falls into the first camp. Was he tired? His pitch count was low. He showed no signs of faltering. All evidence, to the fan's eye, supported the idea that he was still good to go. Could he have pitched an 11th inning? Perhaps. We fans don't have enough to go on (and maybe nobody on the inside really did either). That he's 30 and not 20 means that we can comfortably elect not to panic about what an 11-inning might mean for him in the long term.

Hernandez, the 21-year old, falls into the second camp. If he is to be pampered in the manner prescribed for pitchers his age (for right or for wrong based on the currently accepted wisdom), then it will be encumbent upon Hargrove, if he is at all concerned about Hernandez's long-term health, to perhaps not even wait until traditional signs of fatigue become evident in Hernandez's starts, but to just categorically decide that 30 six-inning starts will be sufficient from him (this is an over-simplification, but you know what I mean).

Given that pitchers continue to get hurt at what seems an alarming rate, it is clear that the science on the injury prevention front is still not strong. And given that pitchers are all different (just why oh why won't Livan Hernandez ever break when all the red flags suggest he must?), clearly studies about aggregates will be deficient on an an individual basis. And correlation and cause-and-effect being different? Yes, of course I agree with all this.

So at this point, I'm not sure that I'm arguing anything and maybe I'm just talking for the sake of it (something I've been rightly accused of more times than is reasonable). I think that pitch counts are at the root of this discussion. While they do serve as a proxy for measurement of likely fatigue, they are clearly deficient (not that they haven't triggered umpteen PAP studies at BP). Any manager who is a slave to pitch counts is probably not doing as thorough a job as he can to evaluate when fatigue sets in. Some might argue (and I'm not saying that you're one of them) that pitch counts are a crutch that might be better done away with altogether, and that pitchers are still getting injured. Others might argue that a tool, even one that's imperfect, is at least better than no tool at all.