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It's the final $2 Tuesday of the year! Will there be Bauxites in the house? Where will they be sitting?

Baseball for a toonie!



By the way, I'm not keen on the term "toonie." It was my fervent hope that we would all learn to call our two dollar coin the "doubloon." Aargh, matey! I did my best, I insisted on calling it a "doubloon" for years. But in the end, they tell me that a fellow must admit defeat....

Oh, to hell with that. Bring a doubloon, see a ball game! Aargh, matey!

That was going to be my entire offering for the day - sometimes I am a lazy sod. Mighty Troy changed my mind.

Mighty Troy is hurting. He was moving gingerly out there last night, running cautiously if there was no need to run hard. When he wasn't between the lines, walking back to the dugout, you could see he's limping a little.

Even more alarming - he actually bounced two throws to Overbay last night. Glaus' single virtue as a defensive player is his arm. It's strong, it's accurate, and he releases the ball quicker than Dan Marino. And his throwing is utterly reliable. So it was surprising when he bounced that first one in the dirt - in his defense, he had moved to his left to cut off a slow roller and then had to throw on the run against his body's momentum. It's a very tough throw, but it was still surprising when Overbay had to scoop it. But the second time was simply shocking - it was a routine grounder, he had all kinds of time, and still sent it over to first on a bounce. Jaws dropped in the press box.

But he did make up for it with the bat, didn't he? I mentioned last night his RBI single, and the contrast with Clayton's dreadful performance shortly afterwards. The big slugger was content to wait on the pitch and drive it the other way for a hit - the light hitting shortstop took three mighty, flailing, futile cuts with two men in scoring position, accomplishing absolutely nothing.

The home run was awfully impressive, too. It was a no-doubter from the moment it left the bat. And that was very strange, because it actually sounded as if he broke the bat. I don't think that's what happened - I think he just didn't get it quite on the good, fat part of the bat. But he hit it so hard, and so square, and so right that it didn't matter. Man, he crushed it.

Mighty, mighty Troy.
15 May 2007: $2 Tuesday | 83 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Maldoff - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#168113) #

The Toronto Star reported this morning that Jason Smith will be designated for assignment to make room for Jesse Litsch on the 40-man roster.

I guess the Jays will be short a position player on the bench tonight, and I would assume he will be replaced by Olmedo after Listch's start.

Barry Bonnell - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#168114) #

Nice article on Jesse Litsch's proud papa.

http://www.thestar.com/columnists/article/213917

Ryan Day - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#168115) #

Interesting tidbit from Yahoo:

Accardo has pitched 16 2-3 scoreless innings, allowing seven hits with 18 strikeouts and five walks. The scoreless streak is the longest such streak to begin a year with the Blue Jays since Paul Quantrill gave up no runs in 23 straight innings to start the 2001 season.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#168116) #
If I'm not mistaken, the Jays brought up Ryan Roberts when Halladay went down. Dropping Smith and bringing up Litsch just evens things out.
Maldoff - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#168118) #
Sorry Ryan, you're completely right. I forgot that Roberts came up for Doc. I mixed that with him coming up to replace Glaus.
VBF - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#168119) #
I think there will be a few bauxites at the game in a location to be determined at game time. I'm not sure if Thomas wants to disclose any plans, but I think it'll be pretty easy to spot us at the game...

On an unrelated matter, are any bauxites making the haul to Cooperstown this holiday weekend to check out the Jays vs. Orioles at historic Doubleday Field?


christaylor - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#168120) #
What concerns me is what does Glaus' heel (and accompanying problems on defense) mean long term. Right now, I wish he could DH, but with Thomas there now and probably the next two seasons, so obviously to DH Troy would have to be moved (which would be unfortunate as I'd much rather see Thomas go, but that's unlikely given his current performance and contract).

I suppose both LAA and OAK are likely destinations if he's going to go, but it'll be a shame to see him leave even if we get good young players/prospects in return.
VBF - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#168121) #
There's a very real possibility that Frank Thomas loses his ability to smash baseballs next season. He is getting old, and he will probably come around this year, but its the middle of May and he's just slugging .400. His reign of terror will not last. If you trade Glaus, you put yourself in the situation of having a core lineup of Overbay, Wells, and Rios which puts you right back to where we were in 2005, in search of that BSB (Big Scary Bat).

I'd definitely entertain offers for Glaus, but in the American League East, you got to go with the flow and build your team with offence.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#168122) #
The thing with Glaus, though, is that I wonder if he'd be willing to accept being a DH. I don't know if the guy is capable of giving less than 110%, even if ends up cutting 4 or 5 years off his career (and an outside shot at the Hall of Fame?)
DH - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#168123) #

While I agree that you need a BSB, what this season has proven (again)  is that you're not going anywhere without starting pitching. So if a team offered a young SP and change for Glaus you'd have to think about it. Dodgers. Padres. Angels. Phillies. Brewers. Maybe even the Twins. All of whom (save the Phillies) have young arms and young left side infielders.

I'd take my chances on finding a big bat and go with pitching.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#168126) #

I wonder what Glaus would bring in a trade. He's a year away from Free Agency, iirc, and he's prone to breaking down a couple times a year. Ideally you'd want to stick him at DH, but a) that's not possible for NL teams, and b) Glaus might not want to DH and has a no-trade clause.

Unless someone gets really desperate at the deadline, I wonder if you could get a pitching prospect any better than the calibre of what the Jays already have.

Mike D - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#168128) #
Another under-the-radar reason to go to the park tonight:  barring an off-day, Jim Joyce will provide the best, fairest and most consistent strike zone in baseball, as he usually does.
Pistol - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#168131) #
If you trade Glaus, you put yourself in the situation of having a core lineup of Overbay, Wells, and Rios which puts you right back to where we were in 2005, in search of that BSB (Big Scary Bat).

Well, the question is will Glaus be a BSB in 2008 and 2009?  And if so is he going to be on the field enough for it to matter?  I have doubts about both, particularly his ability to stay on the field.  You shouldn't get hurt simply running to first base.

Glaus isn't going to bring back a good, young starting pitcher.  A young position player is a possibility if he's hitting, healthy and there's competition for him.

Here's the DFA on Smith.
ayjackson - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#168132) #
I think I'd be happier trading Thomas for a prospect at the deadline and moving Glaus to DH for 2008 and beyond.
Pistol - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#168133) #
Speaking of young pitching - over the past two years what good, young starters have been traded?

Jennings for Hirsch is the only one off the top of my head that I can think of.

John Northey - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#168134) #
Glaus as a DH? Not going to happen. As I recall that was a big issue when the Jays traded for him, that he told them straight out he was not going to DH thus forcing Hilly and Hinske to go elsewhere. If I was running the Jays I'd make sure I had a good backup at third, someone with speed and defensive skills to use late in the game whenever possible to reduce the wear and tear on Glaus. Plus I'd be trying everything in my power to find a solid full-time replacement for Glaus as he could easily be out for a couple of months if this heel problem continues.
Thomas - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#168135) #

I think there will be a few bauxites at the game in a location to be determined at game time. I'm not sure if Thomas wants to disclose any plans, but I think it'll be pretty easy to spot us at the game...

No, I don't. Call me silly, but I don't like counting my chickens before they hatch and there's a lot that could still go wrong with our plan. There's a reason that no one knew of the Myers OPS sign beforehand.

P.S. This isn't nearly as good as the Myers OPS sign. That was my crowning sign acheivement. This is more in the Theodore Roosevelt heads category.

HippyGilmore - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#168136) #

Speaking of young pitching - over the past two years what good, young starters have been traded?

Well, 2 years and 4 months ago, Danny Haren, Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson were all traded. Josh Beckett and Anibal Sanchez were traded in 05. Chris Young, John Maine, and Edwin Jackson were traded in 06. Young traded pitchers looking good this year are John Danks and Chad Gaudin (ugh), while the jury is still out on Brandon McCarthy. I think they are always out there, you just have to really look for them.

ayjackson - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#168137) #
  • Glaus as a DH? Not going to happen. As I recall that was a big issue when the Jays traded for him, that he told them straight out he was not going to DH thus forcing Hilly and Hinske to go elsewhere. If I was running the Jays I'd make sure I had a good backup at third, someone with speed and defensive skills to use late in the game whenever possible to reduce the wear and tear on Glaus. Plus I'd be trying everything in my power to find a solid full-time replacement for Glaus as he could easily be out for a couple of months if this heel problem continues.
Bone spurs could change Troy's mind on the DH role.  They're a horrible thing and pretty well ended Larry Bird's career prematurely.  I'd keep Troy at 3B as much as we could this year and look for his replacement in the offseason.  If he's healthy next year, he'll want to play the field and that's fine.  We could DH him against lefties though and DH Lind against righties.  If he doesn't like the DHing, he may be less inclined to pick up his option after next season, which may be a good thing.  
Jordan - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#168138) #

Well, the question is will Glaus be a BSB in 2008 and 2009?  And if so is he going to be on the field enough for it to matter? 

Very true. However, this also exposes the uncomfortable reality that this is a ballclub that was assembled to compete and win in 2006 and 2007, with maybe an outside shot in 2008. The contracts that extend through '09 and '10 (or beyond) do so only because that was the price required to put guys like Glaus, Ryan and Burnett (and Wells & Halladay) on the field during the key contention years.

That's why the team's immolation early this season is more than just an unhappy occurrence that postpones contention by a year -- it represents the potential closing of this squad's contention window altogether. JP's lousy off-season (failure to reinforce the rotation, acquire a serviceable shortstop and assemble a deeper bench), combined with the injuries and poor performance in April and May, means that 2007 is almost certainly a washout.  At this point, 2008 looks to feature even creakier versions of Glaus and Thomas and a BJ Ryan who may or may not be the dominant force he was pre-injury, as well as gaping holes at shortstop and catcher and more question marks in the rotation. That's not going to get it done.

The front office should seriously consider altering or even abandoning the current contention plan -- such as it ever was -- and remaking this team around the nucleus of young talent. Get what you can for Glaus -- it won't be much, maybe only salary relief -- and do it soon, while his first-half numbers still look gaudy. Figure out who's under your control through 2010 -- Wells, Rios, Johnson, Lind, Hill, Overbay in the field, Halladay, Marcum, Janssen, Litsch, McGowan, Frasor, Accardo and possibly League -- and recognize that that's a pretty good foundation right there (expecting AJ Burnett to exercise his out clause after 2008 and take the JD Drew Express out of town). Build on that foundation with selected free agents and hope for better luck this time around.

Mostly, the front office should have the courage to admit that this effort didn't work out, but that this team requires reloading, not rebuilding. Personally, I doubt JP has the flexibility or humility to take that route. if Glaus is dealt before the All-Star Break, as he should be, that'll come as a pleasant surprise.

Pistol - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#168139) #
Well, 2 years and 4 months ago, Danny Haren, Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson were all traded. Josh Beckett and Anibal Sanchez were traded in 05. Chris Young, John Maine, and Edwin Jackson were traded in 06. Young traded pitchers looking good this year are John Danks and Chad Gaudin (ugh), while the jury is still out on Brandon McCarthy. I think they are always out there, you just have to really look for them.

The common thread is that they're primarily pitcher for pitcher trades.

It's hard (I think) to find a trade of an established position player for a good young starter.
ayjackson - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#168142) #

this is a ballclub that was assembled to compete and win in 2006 and 2007

I take issue with this assertion.  I believe it IS and should BE the goal of Jays' management to assemble a team that could compete every year - whether we win or not depends on health and performance of the players.  This should not be difficult with a payroll of $75-100 million.  Winning-it-all is dependent on the luck of players to stay healthy and the chance that the team as a whole will overperform expectations.  In years where the players meet their potential and/or have moderate health, we should be on the fringe of the playoffs.  In years where the players underperform and/or have poor health (see 2007), we will have a dissappointing season. 

They have not mortgaged the future in any way to compete in 2007 and 2008.

This whole "going-for-it" point of view that is raised here every so often makes me shudder.

paulf - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#168143) #
It's hard (I think) to find a trade of an established position player for a good young starter.

I can think of one, and it hits pretty close to home. Fellow by the name of Bush...
Anders - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#168144) #
It's hard (I think) to find a trade of an established position player for a good young starter.

I can think of one, and it hits pretty close to home. Fellow by the name of Bush...

I don't think this is a particularly good example, much as some people love Dave Bush (he of the 73 ERA+ in baseball's worst division). At the time he was traded, Bush was 25 and had pitched about 230 innings at a notch better than league average. Lyle Overbay was hardly a stud at  the time either. If this is the best example you can come up with, you are really just proving Pistol's point - that at a high level, established good hitting for good young pitching is hard to swing
Jim - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#168145) #

They have not mortgaged the future in any way to compete in 2007 and 2008.

This is only true because they have built no future for past 2008. 

 

Ryan Day - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#168146) #

Am I missing something, or will Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, Aaron Hill, B.J. Ryan, Lyle Overbay, Roy Halladay, Adam Lind, Casey Janssen, Shaun Marcum, Jeremy Accardo and Brandon League no longer be available to the Jays after 2008? Never mind Travis Snider, David Purcey, Balbino Fuenmayor, Curtis Thigpen and Sergio Santos?

Not all of those players will be with the Jays and/or good and/or healthy in 2009, but "no future" is rather extreme.

John Northey - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#168147) #
Built to win in '06-'07? Nah.
Toronto-NYY-Boston all stats from Baseball-Reference.com for the 2007 season

Average age hitters - 30.5 - 31.1 - 30.5
Hitters in lineup 32 or older 2 - 7 - 3 (3 more at 31)
I use 32 as that is the traditional age when players start to become pumpkins rather than All-Stars.

So for hitting the Jays are not that much younger, until you check the 32+ crew where the Yankees live and the Red Sox will be in 2008. Backups McDonald and Fasano are past 32 and Zaun is as well (listed as backup right now) as are regulars Thomas and Clayton. After this year only Thomas and Zaun are being counted on at all (I really, really hope) and no others will be joining the downhill crew until 2009.

As a negative the only guy who has swung a bat that is under 25 (the age you are supposed to start your prime) is Lind at 23. Prime guys (25-32) are, in age order, Hill-25, Rios-26, Roberts-26, Wells-28, Smith-29, the 30 crowd->Phillips, Overbay, Glaus, Johnson and McDonald at 32. Given that I'd say the Jays are trying for 07/08/09 as that group will all be in their primes throughout it (other than Lind who hits the start of it in '09).

For comparison the Yankees have Cano & Cabrera under 27, Thompson at 27, Phelps and Nieves at 29, and A-Rod at 31. The Sox have Pedroia-23, Pena-25, Crisp-27, Youkilis-28, Hinske-29, and at 31 Lugo, Drew, Ortiz, and Cora. The Sox are far younger than I thought (feels like Willy Mo has been around a lot longer, same with Crisp) and will be the class of the east for awhile I fear.


Average age Pitchers - 28.7 - 30.2 - 32.1

So, keeping the same pitchers as this year the Jays would still be younger than the Yankees of 2007 in 2008 and it would take until 2010 to 'catch' the Red Sox. All the pitchers used by the Jays to date are 31 or younger.

Pitching details - Ohka/Downs/Zambrano/Ryan are 31, AJ/Halladay/Towers are 30, Frasor/Tallet are 29, Chacin=26, Accardo/Janssen/Marcum/McGowan/Vermilyea are 25, Litsch is 22.

Looking at that the Jays are very young in the pitching department and won't see the 'new core' (all at 25, weird) hit the 32 wall until free agency. Ryan, AJ, and Halladay are counted on and have that 3 in front of their ages but are far younger than Mussina/Pettitte/Rivera (35+) and Schilling/Wakefield/Timlin (all 40+). Namely both Boston and NY have key pitchers to replace soon while none of the Jays pitchers should hit an age wall pre-2010 outside of Ryan who might have hit it this year.

If pitching is #1 the Jays are really built for the long term. If hitting is then Zaun/Thomas/Clayton have to be replaced soon, which for Clayton isn't hard and for Zaun was already expected. The Jays look to be built for the '07-'10 window the more I look at them, not just 7-8. Free agent sluggers like Thomas are always out there each winter. Zaun and Clayton both were scrapheap pickups (sorry, Zaun was even this year) and others like them should be sitting out there next winter too. If you had to replace anything these are the parts you want to need to get - defensive shortstop, catcher, and slugging DH.

The big key is the 25 group - Accardo/Janssen/Marcum/McGowan/Vermilyea. Right now those are our closer/setup/#4 starter/#5 starter/long relief. By years end it could be closer/#3/#4/#5/setup. If they do well, the Jays will be a power. If they flop...well...tickets would be easy to come by.
Paul D - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#168148) #
It hasn't been discussed much here today, but I'm pumped about Litsch tonight.  It's always fun to imagine all the possibilities when a new pitcher starts.  The sky's the limit!   It's similar to my reaction when I meet a new woman for the first time.   Here's hoping that things turn out better for Litsch than they usually do for me.
:)
ayjackson - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#168150) #
We don't yet see Doc's heir apparent as ACE of the staff in the Jays' system.  If we still don't after this draft, maybe we should make a run at one of the Twins' fine prospects, like Matt Garza.
Magpie - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#168151) #
Jim Joyce will provide the best, fairest and most consistent strike zone in baseball, as he usually does.

And as a bonus, you can hear Jim calling a strike from every seat in the park.

Actually, if you turn off the TV, you can probably hear him wherever you are. The best.
actionjackson - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#168154) #
GregJP, were you present at his fitness testing for this year? He looks like a decent pitcher to me. 7 groundballs so far (2 and 2/3), with one going for a hit and a strikeout to match the jittery leadoff hitter walk. He's not exactly built like David Wells and he actually covers first base. Go kid go!
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#168155) #
It is nice to see Overbay starting to draw some walks again. Frankly, I am more baffled by his invisibility throughout the first quarter of the season that probably anyone else's performance on the Blue Jays.
Jevant - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#168157) #
What a fantastic game by Jesse Litsch.  I wish I was able to be at the Dome right now, because they better be giving him a thundering standing O as he comes off the field with a Roy Halladay-esque 21 groundball outs.
timpinder - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#168159) #

So, does he stay up now?

Jim - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#168160) #
We don't yet see Doc's heir apparent as ACE of the staff in the Jays' system.  If we still don't after this draft, maybe we should make a run at one of the Twins' fine prospects, like Matt Garza.

With what?  Lind and Snider are the only two position players that anyone would have any interest in.  Lind isn't enough to get Garza and Snider is too far away to be of interest to the Twins.
Jim - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#168161) #
All the pitchers used by the Jays to date are 31 or younger.

Sure, they just are not nearly as good as the pitchers Boston has used to date.  The Jays roster is so far behind Boston's right now that it isn't even funny.  Tha Yankees might need some things to break right over the next couple of years to avoid losing some races to the Red Sox by 10 games in the near future.
Mylegacy - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#168162) #

Jesse Litsch, one for the ages. Seems everyone (me included) was really pumped for this, seems like we sort of felt something rare was going to happen - and it did! Wonderful day for the Litsch family! The kid must be over the moon. I know I am.

As to Jesse as a pitcher; my opinion, and it didn't much change from the second inning when it was my first impression, to the end... this guy's "stuff" is only average (at best). But he has "well above average control". He works quick, he keeps it low, he keeps his fielders in the game. I predict (if he stays up) an ERA of about 4.25, a WHIP of 1.30 and a + winning percentage. I really like the guy.

Sherrystar - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#168163) #

That was one to remember... what a game! The crowd was going crazy!

The one thing I noticed though was that Litsch didn't use any change-ups. Based on what I read, that's his "go-to" out pitch. Did anyone else notice this?

Let's hope AJ can keep the positive vibe going!

Manhattan Mike - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#168164) #

Wow - awesome performance.  In Roy Halladay-esque time too!

It reminds me of the age old joke that we used to tell one another when we were growing up:

What does the top pitching prospect in baseball, Phillip Hughes, have in common with Jesse Litsch, a 24th rounder in the same 2004 draft in which Mr. Hughes went 23rd overall?

Answer: In both their major league debuts the Blue Jays won!

(Thanks! I'm here all night!)

CaramonLS - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#168165) #
Yes Sherry, he seemed to be throwing mostly cutters/fastballs all night long.  I'd like to see him mix his speeds a little more in his next outing, which is what he'll need to be successful.

Amazing debut though.

Also the kid is 22, he still has plenty of time/chances to get in better shape if he wants to.  Hell, if the man does decide to add another 50 lbs and pitch like David Wells, who are we to say different?  If it works, don't mess with it.



Alex Obal - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#168166) #
Awesome debut. Awesome. I did not expect Litsch to come out throwing bowling balls like that.

You have to give him another start after that performance.
jeff mcl - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#168167) #
Congrats to Jesse Litsch, that was a pleasure to watch.  Let's hope he gets another start before Gibby does something downright silly, something along the lines of skipping him to give Victor Zambrano another turn in the rotation...

So, can we move the crusty Tomo Ohka now please?

John Northey - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#168168) #
Are the Jays well behind the Sox?  Well, duh.  The Sox have a very smart front office and more money than everyone outside of the Yankees.  With the age thing I was trying to see if the Jays were younger, older, the same as the Sox and Yankees.

The Sox are much older in the pitching staff.  They are counting on two 40 year olds in the rotation and a 40 year old setup man.  Not one pitcher under the age of 26 has been used by them.  The bad news is two starters and their closer are 26-27, namely right in the middle of their prime.  Last year one of them (Beckett - 27) looked like a flop with an ERA+ of 92, but this year he has a 164 so far with 7 wins in 8 starts.  Diasuke is at 105 as he starts to learn the majors (26), and Papelbon is at 323 which is a drop from his ERA+ of 500 last year.  Scary is they signed Okajima from Japan (31) and his ERA+ is 905 (0.48 ERA) over  his first 18 2/3 IP with 22 K and just 4 BB. 

Remember, the Sox look amazing right now but also everything has gone right in their pitching staff.  Just 5 guys have started a game for them so far, 9 guys in the pen.  One starter has an ERA+ of 66 (Tavarez who is at 101 lifetime but at 34 could be approaching the cliff).  Daisuke is next worst at 105.  The pen goes from 6 guys with a 150+ ERA+ to Pineiro at 99, Timlin at 70 and Hansack at 32 over just 2/3 IP.  That ain't going to continue all season.  Last year just 2 starters were at 100+, peaking at 116.  Paplebon was the only reliever with more than 26 IP with an ERA+ over 106.  A slump will come, the question is when, not if.  Btw, these stats are pre-tonights game where Wakefield was lit up for 5 runs over 7 IP and Donnelly gave up 2 in 2/3 IP (vs 1 in his first 9 2/3 IP). 

The Jays have a very bright looking future.  Chacin, Marcum, McGowan, Litsch, and Janssen are all potential starters who are south of 27 and very cheap for a few more years.  Accardo has been looking good at just 25 in the pen.  Ryan (when healthy - which he should be next year and for the next couple given how TJ surgery has progressed) and Halladay are both top flight pitchers.  With luck this team could have the best pitching staff in baseball very soon.  Purcey looks good as does Banks and both are very close. 

Am I an optimist?  Oh yeah.  But it is fun to see Marcum pitch amazingly well, then Litsch do the same while McGowan is starting to show signs of moving from suspect to real thing.  Janssen and Accardo are doing a nice Eichhorn/Henke impersonation.  When was the last time we saw this many young pitchers looking good in the majors?  I'd think 99 with Carpenter/Escobar/Halladay (all under 25) and Koch (24).  Escobar was unpredictable (86 ERA+) but the rest were 100+ ERA+ guys.  Very sad that the Jays blew it during that stretch with dumb moves (no need to go over Ash's trade record I assume). 

FYI - that '99 team should've done so much more.  Just 2 of the top 11 pitchers used has ERA+ under 100.  Just 2 position players an OPS+ under 100.  Sadly the DH (not counted as a position there) was ... well ... super ugly is a compliment.  Willie Greene played there the most and had an OPS+ of 65.  The next two most used players on the bench also were sub 70 in OPS+ with Dave Hollins getting 99 AB's of 50 OPS+ in there too.  That was almost like putting McDonald or Russ Adams (last year) in the DH slot.  Royce Clayton v2007 is hitting better than that bench/DH combo (74 OPS+) as are Jason Phillips and John McDonald (for now).  Think about that, any of those 3 would've been better DH choices than the Jays used in '99.  Ugly, ugly, ugly.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#168169) #
I don't see how you can say the Jays have no future and then praise the Red Sox roster: Varitek is 35. Lowell is 33. Manny is 35. Drew is 31 - a year older than Troy Glaus and probably less durable. Lugo and Ortiz are both 31 (but geez, I thought Ortiz was older) Schillling and Wakefield are 40. Josh Beckett's health record is little better than A.J. Burnett's.

The Red Sox are far superior right now. They're getting the absolute best performances out of most of their roster, particularly the bullpen. Also, Papelbon didn't blow out his elbow, Varitek didn't break his hand, Drew hasn't wrecked his back (yet), and Schilling didn't need an emergency appendectomy.
Lefty - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#168170) #

This game pitched by young Mr. Litsch is certainly the highwater event of this dismal season so far. Hopefully we only rate it a top five  highlight by the time we get to September.

I hate to throw a damper on the high spirits after his start though. If the plan was to bring him up for one start then send him back down, do it. Let him honestly back it up himself. Keep the kid hungry and let him further develop knowing that he has suceeded in his debut appearance. If he's still lights out next month there will be another opportunity in Toronto.

This kid overcame huge odds with the work he put in tonight. Why play with a deck stacked against him and allow this game to evaporate into a distant memory because he was overmatched.

The kids still a propect, let him just be that for now.

Magpie - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#168171) #
Papelbon didn't blow out his elbow, Varitek didn't break his hand, Drew hasn't wrecked his back (yet), and Schilling didn't need an emergency appendectomy.

Well, the first three of those things could still happen.

Jesse Litsch was the 24th player to make his major league debut as a Jays starter. And his work tonight was, arguably, the best of the lot. (The other contenders are Mauro Gozzo, Jerry Garvin, and Brandon Lyon. In that order.)
VBF - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#168172) #

The kids still a propect, let him just be that for now.

Not while the Jays still run Tomo Ohka out there and we all collectively hold our breath, hoping for 5 innings and 3 earned runs.

If it's a health thing and you worry about him pitching that much (what kind of pitch counts to AAers throw?) then do what you have to do. But if that's not the case, ride the hot arms. Marcum, McGowan and now Litsch have shown flashes of sheer brilliance. They may be the organizations best 3, 4 and 5s. But keep them here and we'll find out.


Lefty - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#168174) #

The kids still a propect, let him just be that for now.

Not while the Jays still run Tomo Ohka out there and we all collectively hold our breath, hoping for 5 innings and 3 earned runs.

Well I love your enthusiasum and share your sense of urgency, but I just believe that this 24th rounder will be better served, as should the team, by sending him back and letting him continue to suceed. He not some heralded rookie, the book says he will absolutely fail in the big leagues and I'm sticking with the book on this one. We are not talking about Justin Verlander  or Felix Hernadez here. 

The kid had a good game, let him enjoy it instead of throwing it in the garbage.

 

John Northey - Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 11:44 PM EDT (#168175) #
I wish I could remember where I saw it, but there was an article which covered young pitchers and basically said once they are ready teams should put them in the majors, regardless of age or experience.  If Litsch can pitch like he did tonight and as he has been in AA then leaving him in the minors just wastes valuable pitches in that arm of his.  I'd rather he threw up here and risked it than blows it out in the minors instead.

As to the good experience vs bad, remember the Halladay y2k version (the one thing the Y2K bug got).  He had as bad an experience as could be imagined that year yet came back with a 140+ ERA+ for the next 3 seasons and 5 out of 6.  Janssen got his butt handed to him after a hot start and didn't even get called back for September and it hasn't hurt him this year.  Accardo also had some issues late last year.  Would it have been better to leave any of them in AAA for an extra year rather than taking their lumps and learning how to really pitch rather than thinking they are god's gift?

If a guy shows he can pitch here let him throw until he shows otherwise.  If their ego can't take it then they were never going to succeed anyways.

timpinder - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 01:16 AM EDT (#168176) #

I understand that the "book" suggests that Litsch shouldn't be successful and his "stuff" isn't over-powering, but the same could be said for Wang, who's minor league numbers were very similar.  In Wang's two major league seasons prior to this year his BB9 / K9 ratio was 2.26 / 3.31 and he allowed 9.62 H9.  That's just not very good, if you're going by the book.  His ERA, however, was 3.77 and he had a 1.29 WHIP and 27-11 record.  Wang and Litsch seem to have similar pitching styles, both throwing sinking stuff with few strikeouts while inducing ground balls and limiting homeruns.

I was very impressed with Litsch tonight.  It seemed that everything he threw had sink to it (hence the 21 GB outs), and he worked quickly.  I think that 4 hits allowed was the result of a bit of luck and he was helped by a lot of double plays, but that's what happens when you induce ground balls and work fast.  I agree with MyLegacy in his projection of Litsch.  I don't think he'll have too many nights like tonight, especially when he starts facing better lineups, but I think a 4.25 ERA and a spot as a solid #4 starter is a reasonable projection.  He has a good makeup and I just don't see him getting hammered very often.  He's still new and this was just one start, but I'm certainly optimistic with what I saw. 

ayjackson - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 01:35 AM EDT (#168178) #

With what?  Lind and Snider are the only two position players that anyone would have any interest in.  Lind isn't enough to get Garza and Snider is too far away to be of interest to the Twins.

???

Well I was thinking Alex Rios might be of interest to the Twins.  I'd want another (perhaps lower level) prospect back though.  But apparently we only have Lind and Snider who are appealing to other teams??

actionjackson - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 02:09 AM EDT (#168179) #
Lefty, I understand he doesn't have overpowering stuff. I understand he was drafted in the 24th round. The all-time HR leader for 2B, Jeff Kent, was drafted as a SS in the 20th round by the Blue Jays. Woody Williams was drafted in the 28th round and while not overpowering he has certainly been serviceable for 15 big league seasons. All-time Jays fan favourite Orlando Hudson was drafted in the 43rd round. Jake Peavy: 15th round, Bret Saberhagen: 19th round, Jeff Conine: 58th round, Al Cowens: 75th round, Mike Piazza: 62nd round, Lyle Overbay: 19th round, Reed Johnson: 17th round. Yes, it's harder for guys from later rounds to reach the big leagues and succeed when they get there, but there are also a lot of 1st round busts.
 
I was at Mauro Gozzo's debut start against Texas on August 8, 1989, so I'm well aware that a brilliant debut means nothing. It doesn't mean the pitcher is Cy Young, but it sure doesn't mean he'll turn into Mark Lemongello either. That's why you want to give him more starts to test his mettle and see what he's made of and find out what you've got. He appears to have a good head on his shoulders and responds well to adversity. He could've deep sixed himself right in the first inning, but he got the double play ball and kept getting it time after time.

Maybe I'm reading your post wrong but you seem to be saying that he'll never be more than minor league roster filler anyway, so send him down now so that he can keep that memory intact. I don't know how you can know how he'll turn out unless you have some kind of time travel apparatus that allows you to travel ahead 3 years and see what happens and then report back to us all. He and his dad will always have that memory, whether he gets destroyed from here on in or not, he will always remember May 15, 2007. I, for one, want to see if he can build on it and the only way to find out is to keep testing him. It's going to get trickier for him now that everyone will have film on him. I don't think he's the pitching staff saviour, but I'm not going to dismiss him because his stuff is average or his draft pedigree sucks.

 I wouldn't mind passing over Tomo Ohka to give him the start against a National League opponent (Phil.) on Sunday. That makes a lot of sense to me because he's already succeeded against a DH lineup, now let's see what he's got on the road against a tougher non-DH lineup. Would that make the pitching rotation for the Phillies series McGowan/Marcum/Litsch? That's certainly going to draw this fan's attention.
laketrout - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 02:22 AM EDT (#168180) #
Jesse Litsch was the 24th player to make his major league debut as a Jays starter. And his work tonight was, arguably, the best of the lot. (The other contenders are Mauro Gozzo, Jerry Garvin, and Brandon Lyon. In that order.)

Gotta agree with you there but I don't think there's been a Jay who's performed better in their second major league start than this.

John Northey - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 08:07 AM EDT (#168181) #
Ah, Roy's second start.  If only the Jays left their starting secondbaseman in then Roy might have had a perfect game (a ball was booted after the starter was pulled and a DH in waiting was put in who promptly booted one, allowing one extra hitter to get up to bat and crank that home run with 2 out in the 9th).  Still, there was a nice bit of generation passing there with Dave Stieb being in the bullpen and catching that home run given how he had 3 of those 2 out in the 9th hits allowed before getting his no-no.
chips - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#168186) #
Anybody have any idea what Lyle Overbay was thinking in the 8th inning, when he was on 3rd base with one out and Rios lined a fly out to the left fielder. He strayed off base and couldn't get back in time to tag up. It appears he would have scored.I thought at the time it may come back to haunt them.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#168187) #
Higginson was a pinch-hitter, though, and probably would have come up to bat anyway.
Jim - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#168189) #

But apparently we only have Lind and Snider who are appealing to other teams??

Assuming that you want to make the major league team better by not dealing anyone from it, then yes.  That is all that is appealing to other teams if you are looking for someone like Garza. 

 

 

Jim - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#168190) #

Wang

Who also happens to be the most unique pitcher in the major leagues today.  Litsch was on Baseball Tonight last night and I knew the phrase 'pitching to contact' was coming and I still cringed.

ayjackson - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#168191) #

That is all that is appealing to other teams if you are looking for someone like Garza. 

I disagree again.  AJ Burnett could garner a Garza-like prospect if he pitches well into July.  A playoff team looking for a top-end starter may find him appealing.  Top prospect(s) could certainly be had in return.  [The Twins are unlikely to be that team, given their salary structure.]

There are likely other packages that could be put together as well, by a creative mind (insert JP bashing comment here).

Frank Markotich - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#168193) #

I think Litsch deserves to make his next start for the Blue Jays on his regular turn. If he starts to struggle, fine, he can be sent down. Right now, he's earned it.

This business of sending him back down now because his fragile ego might be damaged beyond repair is being way too nervous and over-protective. Are you going to wait until he turns 30? When you're ready, you're ready and time will tell.

I don't expect him to become a Cy Young winner, or to be as good as Wang has been to date, but you never know. His minor league records show him to be an extreme groundball pitcher who doesn't walk people. If he can carry that forward into the majors, that's a very useful pitcher and I'll take it.

 

Ryan Day - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#168195) #

Wang actually struck out batters at a decent rate in the minors - his career minor league K/9 was 7.06, with 2.04 BB/9. LItsch has 7.8 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9.

I don't expect Litsch to be as good as Wang, but I also don't expect him to cut his strikeout rate in half. Wang is pretty freaky, whether it's his ability to be successful or the fact he's been successful so far.

Avail - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#168196) #

Frank, I agree completely... as long as he continues to pitch well (quality starts) the Jays should reward him with more starts. His age or the fact that he pitched in AA before this is irrelevant to his future at this point. Give the kid a short leash and let him pitch as long as he can succeed, or so long as he doesn't show signs of being overwhelmed.

Different people react to challenge and adversity differently. Some collapse, but some actually excel, from last night I'd say that Litsch MIGHT be in the later category...

Give him the chance, its not like there is a ton to lose at this point.

Now lets pray that AJ can continue the good vibes and give us a quality start and an opportunity to sweep the O's.

Thomas - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#168198) #

Anybody have any idea what Lyle Overbay was thinking in the 8th inning, when he was on 3rd base with one out and Rios lined a fly out to the left fielder. He strayed off base and couldn't get back in time to tag up. It appears he would have scored.I thought at the time it may come back to haunt them.

Overbay would have been out, in my opinion. Barring a bad throw or dropped ball by the catcher, he'd have been out and it wouldn't have been that close.

However, Butterfield had a word with him after the play. I suspect he was telling him to do a decoy tag-up and draw the throw home, in hopes the throw is wild and he can score on the error. The 1/3rd of the way down the line was a pointless move on that play, I agree.

Jim - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#168200) #

AJ Burnett could garner a Garza-like prospect if he pitches well into July.

We were talking about Garza specifically.   Not Garza-like.  And without picking up major money on Burnett's deal this probably isn't true anyway.

 

Lefty - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#168201) #

Maybe I'm reading your post wrong but you seem to be saying that he'll never be more than minor league roster filler anyway, so send him down now so that he can keep that memory intact. I don't know how you can know how he'll turn out unless you have some kind of time travel apparatus that allows you to travel ahead 3 years and see what happens and then report back to us all.

Yes, I think perhaps you are reading more into the post than intended. If it was my mistake I apologize.

To be real clear, the intention of my post was not to impugn or assail the ability or character of Jesse Litsch.

All I was saying is that I would still send him back down to the minors, probably AAA. If he is still doing what he is doing next month and Ohka or any other suspect needs to be sent to the pen or down then there will be another opportunity for Litsch.

Jesse Litsch may well work out, but it would be shocking to me if he worked out immediately.  To me its about managing and developing your resources rather than pissing them away.

Now, back to the Future.

MatO - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#168202) #
Interestingly, Garza has been rather mediocre in AAA so far this year.  We'll see if he gets called up in the next few days to take Ponson's place in the rotation.
Pistol - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#168203) #
However, Butterfield had a word with him after the play. I suspect he was telling him to do a decoy tag-up and draw the throw home, in hopes the throw is wild and he can score on the error. The 1/3rd of the way down the line was a pointless move on that play, I agree.

Overbay goofed.  In that situation when the ball was in the air to the OF he should have been on the bag.  If it drops he'll score and if not he can tag up.  I'm pretty sure that's what BB was telling him.

I'm watching online so I don't get a great look at things, but I think Overbay's eyes were drawn to Rios' broken bat and he didn't know where the ball was hit.
Dave Till - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#168205) #
Litsch was a little bit lucky last night: there were a few hard-hit ground balls that were hit right at a middle infielder, allowing a double play. (And it didn't hurt that Miguel Tejada decided to take approximately all day to run out his double-play ground ball. McDonald had time to field the toss from Hill, step on the back, move out of the way of the advancing runner, check his watch, move another step out of the way of the runner just in case, and then fire to first to beat Miggy by two steps.) But I can't help but think that the Baseball Gods are sending a message loud and clear: pitch the kids.

Litsch may be a bit above his level right now, but I can't see how starting him until Doc gets back is going to cause him any harm. I'd rather see him out there than Ohka.

actionjackson - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#168206) #
Thanks for the clarification Lefty. How does the 2010 team look anyway?  ;)

Does anyone know how Roberts will play in the OF? He looks pretty athletic in the field, but that swing is awfully loopy. I like the idea of having a super utility guy, if he's able to handle the different positions adequately. From his minor league numbers, he appears to get on base and hit for power well. Jason Smith sure looked over matched at the plate, but I really liked his arm. That bat definitely doesn't belong here though and it's a shame because it would've been nice to keep one of the very few LHB around, but not at that price. I think the bench is marginally improved simply by the subtraction of Smith. Roberts value will come from how many positions he can cover. Any of the statistically-minded Bauxites care to project what Roberts might be able to do at this level? He seems to have an adjustment period at each level and then rebounds to somewhere around .270/.370/.450. The big leagues is a whole different ballgame of course.

Dave Till - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#168207) #
That should be "step on the bag", not "step on the back", of course.

Mind you, McDonald probably had time to do a few quick dance steps on the runner's back before making his throw.

ayjackson - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#168209) #

We were talking about Garza specifically.   Not Garza-like.

If you go back and read your own posts, you'll find that you raised the "someone like Garza" spectra first in stating that we had nothing of interest to other teams.  This argument is going nowhere and detracting from a decent discussion on Jesse Litsch.  I'll allow you the last word.

Frank Markotich - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#168210) #
Dave, certainly Litsch had some luck in that there were hard-hit ground balls at people. If you keep the ball on the ground, those hits are singles if they get through. As Bill James said, if you keep the ball on the ground, control the baserunning  and don't walk anybody, they have to hit a lot of singles to beat you.
HippyGilmore - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#168212) #
If Doc Halladay had an appendectomy a week ago, how in the heck did he manage to pitch last night?
Gitz - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#168214) #
Am I the only one who thinks Litsch's dad looks like our own Kent "Coach" Williams?
Pistol - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#168217) #
Funny you mention Halladay.  Last night I sent out an e-mail:
8.2 innings, 1 run, 4 hits, 3 walks, 1 strikeout, *21* GB outs, 99 pitches.  And all in 2 hours and change.

If you were to guess who that might be Halladay would probably be in the top 3 guesses.

And no, you're not the only one to think Mr. Litsch had a slight resemblence to Coach.
Gerry - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#168218) #
I agree Gitz, I made the same point in an e-mail last night. 
actionjackson - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#168226) #
According to Wilner, Ohka's going to the bullpen and Litsch will stay in the rotation. I imagine this means he will get the start on Sunday.
GregJP - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#168230) #
It's funny how team management seems to figure things out about three weeks after the majority of the poster here do.

Ohka.......very bad idea from the very start.   Zambrano......very bad idea from the start.  Clayton...........very bad idea from the start.

Two down, one to go.

VBF - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#168231) #
Knee jerk reactions don't go over well when you're dealing with the lives of human beings. It's not easy to tell veterans that they're not wanted after a relatively small number of starts. And you don't build positive relationships that way either. Same goes for the Padres and David Wells and wherever a once decent starter is struggling.

It's a shame the offence hasn't been there to rescue a few games though. The season isn't over but it sure would have been nice to be .500 when the young starters start to show their stuff. Oh well, at least they found the right combination of starters before the end of May. This will prove beneficial in September.

GregJP - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#168232) #
David Wells in that ballpark and in the NL, compared to Tomo Ohka in the AL east is like apples and oranges.

The farmer has/had a chance to succeed, the latter was doomed from the start.

Rickster - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#168237) #

The farmer has/had a chance to succeed, the latter was doomed from the start.

David Wells fancies himself more as a biker than a farmer, I believe. Spot-on analysis and insight otherwise: JP = bad. Please keep the hindsight-based posts coming.

ahitisahit - Wednesday, May 16 2007 @ 11:15 PM EDT (#168242) #
I wasn't sure where to post this, but I was not pleased with tonight's win. AJ pitched great, but the offence has to start putting up more than 2 runs. The Jays left too many people on base with less than 2 outs. Did I hear Jamie Campbell correctly when he said Vernon Wells hasn't had an RBI since April 28th? That is deplorable. I know he had the flu awhile back, but it's time to start producing. It would be nice to get Zaun back in the lineup.
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