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Accardo and Janssen both have ERAs under 1 now.


Accardo's striking out a batter an inning and has a 3:1 K:BB ratio so his success doesn't appear to be a fluke. 

However, Janssen has just 10 Ks in 24.1 innings - just 3.7 Ks/9, and that's out of the bullpen.  Janssen is a groundball pitcher, but certain not an extreme one - he's in the 1.5 GB/FB range.

Obviously they won't be able to keep this up over the course of the season, but where do each of them end up?


This weekend:

Friday:  Jesse Litsch vs Scott Baker
Saturday: Tomo Ohka vs Ramon Ortiz
Sunday: A.J. Burnett vs Carlos Silva

Posted by Pistol on Friday, May 25 2007 @ 08:30 AM EDT.
The Kids Are Alright | 29 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
AWeb - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#168510) #
Clearly Accardo ends up with about 70 scoreless innings, 73 K's, and 35 saves. It's simple extrapolation. Well, maybe the saves part anyway. I'd guess he eventually gets rocked a few times, ends up with an ERA near 2.5 or 3.00. He's never struck out so many major leaguers before, so I expect a dropoff once in a while.

Janssen: yes, his strikeouts are low, but sometimes small sample size applies to peripheral stats as well. He has 7Ks in his last 8 IP; he is capable of raising his season rate to 6K/9IP, I figure. I expect continued success in the BP this year, followed by an offseason of "should he be made into a starter again" questions.

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braden - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#168511) #
Wow, the Jays sure scored with the pitching matchups this weekend.  Though they have hit Santana reasonably well in the past.
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Ryan Day - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#168514) #

I take back everything I said about Matt Stairs. (Aside from the stuff about defence) It looks like he's got a decent season left in him after all.

I wonder if it's not for the best to send Lind back to AAA for a while. He can play regularly, the Jays get the better hitter in the short run, and the Jays could call up a real fourth outfielder.

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JayFan0912 - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#168515) #
Janssen does extremely well against right handers and manages the count. In 80 ABs he only got to a 2-2 count 13 times, and made it 3-2 only on 12 of those occasions. It seems to me that he succeeds because he comes out of the bullpen throwing 4 pitches for strikes, and even though he doesn't get as many GBs, he gets a large share of lazy fly balls and pop outs.

Accardo on the other hand, IMO, is more likely to fall off. It's just his crazy delivery, which is just extremely violent ( It reminds me of bj ryan  ).
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ayjackson - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#168517) #
Litsch-Baker sounds like a great matchup.  Ohka-Ortiz sounds like the exact opposite, with a few superlatives thown in for good measure.  AJ should clean Silva's clock.  Two sawoffs and one favouring us....
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Mike D - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#168518) #
Obviously, it's great that Stairs is starting to turn on fastballs, but he still sees far, far too much outfield time for my tastes.  It completely worked out last night, since (a) both he and Thomas homered, and (b) he salvaged a very serious misplay in the outfield with a good throw.

Dude's a PH/DH, period.  Lind should be out there at every possible opportunity in Johnson's absence.

Good ballgame last night, though.  Vernon's pressing, but that happens to everyone from time to time.
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Squiggy - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#168520) #
This reminds me of early in the season and April when we were worried about the bullpen (Ryan, Downs and many question marks). Now that bullpen, minus Ryan, is a real strength of the team. Kudos to JP - this bullpen is mostly cheap, young and under control for a while.

I think Accardo's success is the more sustainable of the two - strikeouts always help. On the other hand, Janssen's K rate is low, but he is getting it done with groundballs - a la Dan Kolb about 3 years ago (when with Milwaukee the first time). Of course, that all changed when he went to Atlanta and got lit up.

Having said all that, it is great to see some young players rising to the occassion - now if we could only find a role for Frasor.

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ayjackson - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#168522) #

Does not being fast enough count as a ''misplay"?  He was playing in fornt of the warning track (no doubles), shaded to centerfield.  I'm not sure Lind would have gotten that ball.  He made a good play to short-hop it or the run would have scored.

Stairs OBP is 120 points north of Lind's and his Slugging is over 200 points higher.

For a marginal upgrade in defensive speed (I'm not sure Lind has a better glove or arm), I'm not sure Lind is the way to go right now.  Unless of course, we're playing for the future.

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Dave Till - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#168523) #
According to ESPN, Janssen has struck out 8 in 10 2/3 innings in May. So strikeouts aren't a problem.

Both Accardo and Janssen seem to be very comfortable out there. Accardo, in particular, has attitude. I mean that in a good way: he's not afraid to go out and challenge hitters.

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Mike D - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#168524) #
That was no short hop, A.Y.  That was a kick save and a beauty (though I suppose he didn't let it skip past him).  Fortunately, he booted it enough to tempt the O's to send Mora home from first.

And yes, they're playing for the future (or at least next year).  If a team has any choice at all in the matter, regular playing time should be assigned to either good players or young players.  To whatever extent Stairs can develop his outfield defence, that development is irrelevant to the organization.  I think he is a good pinch-hitter, but by no means is he a good starting outfielder.

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Mike Green - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#168525) #
Victor Zambrano didn't make any friends yesterday in New Hampshire.

I agree with Mike D about the Lind/Stairs situation.  It is time for Jason Frasor to get some more work, so that he is prepared to resume working in the set-up role when Janssen moves to the rotation in late June.  Janssen will get the call, won't he?



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ayjackson - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#168528) #

At Syracuse, Ray Olmedo is getting on base 39.3% of the time versus lefthanded pitching.  I'd like to see him in a plattoon with JMac or Royce for a while.  If his OBP versus righties in the majors was even close to that (north of 35%), I'd have him leadoff.

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Mike Green - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#168531) #
Olmedo has been limited to pinch-running duties for the last 4 days and hasn't played short in a week.  Presumably he has a minor upper body injury.  A platoon arrangement in the Show should definitely be the target for him.
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PaulE-O - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#168532) #
I don't understand why so many are calling for Jannsen to be move to the rote - the guy can reach back in his relief role and his rising fastball needs a few extra mph to be effective. His repetoire seems tailored made for a high leverage relief role - DON'T TOUCH!
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Ryan Day - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#168534) #

You move him to the rotation because pitching ~200 innings is much more valuable than pitching ~80. Unless a) he really can't handle starting or b) there are already 5 superior pitchers in the rotation.  Neither is true in Janssen's case.

Maybe, ultimately, it turns out he's better suited in the pen. But you generally shouldn't move a pitcher to the pen until he proves he can't pitch in the rotation.

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John Northey - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#168537) #
I think with Janssen the choice (at the moment) is ...

Janssen in relief = very solid
Guys in rotation = acceptable

vs.

Janssen starting = could be solid, not sure
Rotation guys shifted to pen = mediocre to sucking based on past performance

Next year, if all goes according to plan (yeah right) we'll have Ryan/Accardo/Downs in the pen taking the high leverage situations while Frasor and a cast of thousands take the medium to low leverage situations. Then shifting Janssen to the rotation would make sense as having a solid closer/setup man is vital nowadays and Downs covers the backup slot with Frasor being there for days when the big 3 are tired (ala today) along with whoever fills in the last few slots. Then the Jays get to decide who goes after Halladay/AJ. Marcum has the lead for one of those 3 slots with McGowan fighting hard for another along with Litsch plus Chacin is also there for 2008 (plus Zambrano I guess). If the Jays don't get a solid #4 and #5 from those guys after Marcum then Janssen will probably move. If they get, say, ERA's around the 5 mark and around 5-6 IP per game from them then things get tough.

FYI: there are now 5 guys in double digits for IP (plus Vermilyea) below 4 for ERA, 3 more below 4.50. These are 4 starters (Litsch, AJ, Marcum, Halladay) and 4 relievers (Accardo, Janssen, Downs, Tallet). Tallet is smoke and mirrors though with his 10 walks in 12 2/3 IP (vs 8 K's). Everyone else (7 guys) is 5.50 and up with BJ being the only one under 10 IP.
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ayjackson - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#168538) #

I'd like to see Janssen in the rotation this year, just not right now.  I'm still hopeful another reliever will step up and then Janssen can be moved.  I'd love to see what we can do with a rotation of Doc/AJ/Marcum/Casey/Dustin.

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Paul D - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#168539) #
Out of curiousity, does anyone know Accardo's entrace music?

I always felt that was Ryan's biggest weakness - he doesn't come into a 20 year old classic rock/metal song.
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Ryan Day - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#168542) #
Putting Janssen in the rotation could weaken the bullpen, but letting Tomo Ohka start and get knocked out after four innings also weakens the bullpen - quality of middle relief aside, John Gibbons just frightens me whenever he's got to use the bullpen before the 7th inning.
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Ryan Day - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#168543) #
 Putting Janssen in the rotation could weaken the bullpen, but letting Tomo Ohka start and get knocked out after four innings also weakens the bullpen - quality of middle relief aside, John Gibbons just frightens me whenever he's got to use the bullpen before the 7th inning.
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John Northey - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#168544) #
Accardo is interesting. Last night I was distracted and looked back and saw Accardo looking like a call went against him so I rewound (gotta love DVR's) and saw the ump called a strike just before that look was given. Don't know why he would be like that, perhaps a Dave Stieb quality (never, ever happy no matter what) but to me that is a good thing. A guy who isn't happy with a called strike (for whatever reason, maybe the pitch didn't do exactly what he wanted it to) is a good guy to have on your team. I was happy with Accardo when he was traded for and each day I'm more happy - especially when Hilly is now hitting 231/245/301 (48 OPS+) and Chulk is 1-2 with a 4.34 ERA (94 ERA+) in the NL. Might go down as one of JP's best trades ever.
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Avail - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#168546) #

"I always felt that was Ryan's biggest weakness - he doesn't come into a 20 year old classic rock/metal song."

Really? I think BJ's entrance is awesome. I like going to games just to see it. I remember last year's home opener when he tore out of the bullpen to the flames and some slipknot, I was howling with laughter/delight.

Going to games this year, that's what I miss the most, Ryan's dramatic entrance (and run production, I miss that too).

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Paul D - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#168554) #

Really? I think BJ's entrance is awesome. I like going to games just to see it. I remember last year's home opener when he tore out of the bullpen to the flames and some slipknot, I was howling with laughter/delight.

Slipnot just doesn't cut it for me.  Too nu-metal, not enough Axl.   (Although, I would accept Blind by Korn as entrance music).

I was at the Skydome during SABR in 2005, against the Yankees.  About half the crowd was Yankees fans.  The Yankees are winning, and Mo comes in.  And the place erupted.  And mind you, this is without Enter Sandman.  I want that kind of atmosphere for Ryan.

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VBF - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#168555) #
There is that atmosphere for Ryan.

BJ's used that music since he came up with the Orioles. The fans totally dig it, and then you've got the scoreboards with the flames, it totally demonizes the fans. And unlike closers who jog out of the pen, BJ's music works for him because it's loud and fast as he sprints to the mound.

Everytime I've tried to get video of it, my batteries always run out beforehand, but it's somethign to behold, especially when the lower level is full.

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Paul D - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#168559) #

There is that atmosphere for Ryan.

I'm talking about full on, stadium shaking pandemonium.  I've never seen that atmosphere at a Jays game, except for when Mo was there.  Maybe I'm just not paying attention, or maybe i've been to too many April games against the Orioles to really see that. 

(At this same game against the Yankees, the jumbotron showed a guy dancing in a Yankees jacket.  So half the stadium cheers, half booed.  He then whipeed off the jacket to reveal a Red Sox jersey, to the derision of everyone there.  I've wondered since then if it was planned or not).

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Alex0888 - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#168565) #
A reliever hasn't won a Cy in a while... maybe a certain someone could do it this year
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HippyGilmore - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#168574) #

A reliever hasn't won a Cy in a while... maybe a certain someone could do it this year

You're getting way ahead of yourself...but I like the idea. I like it a lot.

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Maldoff - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#168575) #

The Rocket will not be lifting off versus the Jays next week:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2883025

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Mylegacy - Friday, May 25 2007 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#168577) #
Saw highlights from the Trenton start - not surprised we don't get to see the Rocket's Red Glare. At times he looked a bit like a 44 year old.
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