Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Two hits, two runs.  Game time:  One hour & 50 minutes. 

Gotta love the Buerhle / Halladay matchup.



With the win last night Halladay reached 100 wins with the Blue Jays.  Here's the Blue Jays win leaders as found at baseball-reference.com:

RankPlayer  W  IP
1.Dave Stieb
175
2873.0
2.Jim Clancy
128
2204.7
3.Jimmy Key
116
1695.7
4.Pat Hentgen
107
1636.0
5.Roy Halladay
100

1401.0
6.David Wells
84
1148.7
7.Juan Guzman
76
1215.7

Why did I include the top 7?  Because I have an irrational devotion to Juan Guzman!

A best guess would have Halladay moving past Hentgen this year, Jimmy Key next season and Jim Clancy in 2009.  Dave Steib will be tougher to catch.  I imagine it'll take at least 5 seasons.  I'd say it's probably a 50/50 shot at this point.

Burnett vs. Vazquez tonight.

Efficient Baseball | 35 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Chuck - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 07:16 AM EDT (#169073) #
Halladay should have his appendix out more often.
rtcaino - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#169075) #

I want to get my appendix out! First Bargniani and now Doc: It more en vougue this season that having being named 'Blank J' was for the prior two.

lexomatic - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#169076) #
i remember browsing BP07 and noticing in one listing someone was out for 2 MONTHS due to appendicitis ... way to be a quick healer Roy
hopefully Burnett & Marcum's low BABIP doesnt regress too much
Mike Green - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#169079) #
Fine game story from Jeff Blair in the Globe today. Halladay made an adjustment to his cutter on the advice of Fasano, while on the DL.  The great ones take advantage of their time off, like Joe Morgan studying pitcher's moves when he was out for a year in 1968.

I have mentally chalked Doc up for 250 wins on his career now.  There is a certain transition point in a pitcher's career where adjustments have to be made.  I am pretty sure that he's going to manage them.

ayjackson - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#169080) #

i remember browsing BP07 and noticing in one listing someone was out for 2 MONTHS due to appendicitis

I'm not a doctor, but I think the recovery times can vary largely depending on whether or not they get to the little bugger before it ruptures.

paulf - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#169083) #
If we're looking for specious reasoning, may I suggest Roy shave more often? There's probably a shorter recovery time.
Chuck - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#169086) #

What a nice contrast Halladay serves, just 24 hours later, to Alex Rodriguez. While my position perhaps reveals my age and the quaint thinking of a different generation, Halladay's professionalism, sense of honour, dignity and decorum are altogether too rare these days, and not just in the world of professional sports. Rodriguez may well have technically been within the legal limits when he let out his now famous "hah" shout, but his behaviour was not honourable, and not because of any unwritten code.

Tangential to this, as a Raptors fan I am pleased to see that Chris Bosh appears to be cut from the same cloth as Halladay. He's a very young man who carries himself with a great deal of dignity, in a sport where many of its stars do not.

Mike Green - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#169087) #
Hill's homer yesterday sent a message.  He golfed a pitch down and away over the centerfield fence.  If he hits a couple the opposite way, the word will get around.

Thomas' blast on the other hand was on a room service offering from Buehrle.
Maldoff - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#169089) #
From what I have seen from Thomas, he is now a 100% dead pull hitter. He finally seems to be showing his age, unfortunately.
DiscoDave - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#169090) #
Don't know who caught this but during the earlier innings they showed a replay of the "the play" with some audio this time.  To me he clearly said "Mine!".  Clark clearly stops going after the ball, you can see it in the body language, but still tracks the ball and when it comes down to a level to be caught he backs off. 

To combat this type of play in my slow pitch league (it does happen) I use my name when calling the ball.  I was taught this in youth soccer.

AWeb - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#169092) #
That's funny, because I saw a soccer league once where you weren't allowed to call out names to call for the ball. Since players tended to be in the league for a while, I assume this was instituted because a few idiots kept calling out people's names as a trick. This was an adult women's league too.

Burnett vs. Vazquez tonight : two fairly similar pitchers, with Burnett's control problems being a better one to have than Vasquez's long ball problems. It's hard to believe Vazquez is only 30, he's been around for a decade now. Extremely consistent since coming to the AL, at just slightly below average run prevention. If he can stick around performing at his current level for another 6-7 years, he could make the all-time top ten for home runs allowed. Obviously, the key to beating him is the longball.

Newton - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#169094) #

Let the countdown to .500 begin. 

If the Jays can get there by mid-June we can start thinking playoffs again. 

Lookout Tigers.

Tonights game will likely be determined by a decisive HR as well.  Both AJ and Vaz are prone to the long ball (both would be truly elite starting pitchers aside from this common tragic flaw) but can still chuck with the best of them allowing minimal base runners.

ayjackson - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#169095) #

That's funny, because I'm pretty sure in Britain (youth and Sunday leagues, anyway), it's a foul if you call for the ball without calling your own name.  You have to say "Keeper" or "Howie's ball" or "ARod's ball" if you want it.  "Mine" would result in a free kick for the opposition. 

The point of the rule, is to prevent the practice of opposing players calling you off the ball.  Interesting placement of the onus, though.

DiscoDave - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#169096) #
That's funny, because I saw a soccer league once where you weren't allowed to call out names to call for the ball. Since players tended to be in the league for a while, I assume this was instituted because a few idiots kept calling out people's names as a trick. This was an adult women's league too.

When this was done the ref would give a yellow card.  A guy tried this in a highschool game I was in, he got carded, the coach pulled him 1st chance and gave him quite a verbal lashing for it.  4 years of HS soccer and that was the only time I ever saw it. 

Back to baseball...good team effort last night...the D helped Roy out when it needed to...the O jumped on the few pitches Beurhle missed on...and Pat and Jamie didn't annoy me much.
Maldoff - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#169097) #
I'll probably get reamed for suggesting this, but I think that once Zaun comes back, the Jays should demote Phillips, not Fasano.  For some reason, pitchers seem to respond much better to Sal than Jason, and Sal actually is able to throw out batters every once in a while (personally, I think Phillips has a weak arm).  While it is a downgrade offensively, it's not much of one, and for a backup catcher, it's not such a big deal.
John Northey - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#169098) #
So, is the new trick to play dead ball baseball?

2 wins out of the last 3 games, scoring a total of 5 runs in the two wins and scoring 5 runs in the one loss.

Fun stuff actually. Halladay looks to be back to being himself, AJ moving towards the role we all hoped for, Marcum with a 2.16 ERA in 4 starts, McGowan getting stronger each time, Ohka actually doing well (3 starts in a row with 3 runs allowed and an increasing inning count each time).

Y'know, it is funny looking at Ohka's game log. He allowed more than 5 runs just once (May 4th vs Texas) but that game he came within 2 outs of a complete game which does have value. Just once he has allowed under 3 runs to score, again vs Texas the start before (April 29th). Weird. 5 out of 9 times he has made it through 6 innings. Never less than 4. His 86 ERA+ isn't horrid for a 5th starter.

FYI: Looking at 2006 to compare Ohka to I was surprised to notice we had 3 guys over 100 (Halladay/AJ/Lilly) and 3 guys dead on 93 (Chacin/Janssen/Marcum all within .02 of each other for ERA).

2007 is at 3 guys with 100+ (Marcum/Halladay/AJ), 3 in the 80's (Ohka/Towers/Chacin), McGowan at 77, Litsch at 69, and in the rear Zambrano at 41. So Marcum has replaced Lilly, Ohka/McGowan now need to pick it up and get into the 90's.

Fun Stat:
Jays 2006 team ERA = 4.37
Jays 2007 team ERA = 4.37
John Northey - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#169099) #
Fasano not much of a drop on offense vs Phillips?

Phillips: 237/295/320 - 63 OPS+
Fasano: 121/194/273 - 22 OPS+

The spread between these two in OBP is more than the spread between Phillips and A-Rod (386 OBP). Or if you prefer the spread in OBP is more than between Phillips and any one else on the Jays roster (Stairs is at 394 to lead). That is a heck of a spread. The 41 points of OPS+ is enough to lift Phillips to average player.

Fasano hits about the same as the average NL pitcher. That is really, really, really bad. I'd love him to stay around as a coach but as a hitter the less said the better. If the Jays wanted 3 catchers on the roster, fantastic he could be limited to defense only. Otherwise you might as well let the pitchers hit and have Thomas hit for Fasano.
binnister - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#169100) #

Otherwise you might as well let the pitchers hit and have Thomas hit for Fasano.

I just want to be clear...would this be allowed in a real game?

I tonight's game, with Sal and AJ starting, could the DH spot be assigned as hitting for the catcher instead of the pitcher?

Pistol - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#169101) #
Fasano not much of a drop on offense vs Phillips?

Phillips: 237/295/320 - 63 OPS+
Fasano: 121/194/273 - 22 OPS+


That's only 33 ABs for Fasano.  He hit .317/.364/.683 in 41 Syracuse ABs so I don't think his current line is indicative of his skills.

They're both career .300/.400 type hitters.  I don't think it's unreasonable to prefer Fasano to Phillips.
Thomas - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#169103) #

If you had told me in February that on June 1 the Jays would have both Howie Clark and Brian Wolfe on our 25-man roster, I'd never have believed you. If you had said the team had a 25-28 record at that point, I would have taken without hesitation.

AWeb - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#169106) #
I'm just making a note here about a topic which got a lot of play several years ago when things looked bad for the Jays : the Canadian dollar. The dollar been trended upward, and is expected to continue to do so.

Since this time last year, the loonie has gained about 5% in value on the american dollar. This means a payroll of about 82 million american (the approximate 2007 figure) used to cost the Jays about $92 million Canadian. The same 82 million now only costs them about $87 million. That's (he said patronizingly doing the basic subtraction) a savings of $5 million dollars, which costs the Blue Jays nothing. It's free money, essentially. Note I'm being generous going back to a year ago. In March, when the payroll was basically settled, the $82 million was about $95 million Canadian. That's 8 million kicking around. Of course, I'm oversimplifying, since the exchange rate was rising during the last two months, and not all of the savings have been realized yet...

So what's my point? If the Jays can stay in peripheral contention for the wild card (I'm letting Boston go), they should have lots of extra money kicking around. A short-term rental player or a trade taking on salary should not be ruled out, and any excuse of not having enough money should be rounded ridiculed, assuming the dollar stays high. What does this team need? Well, not to point out the obvious, but a starting shortstop would be nice.

Ron - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#169107) #
I was mostly against the Thomas signing and Wells extension when it happened and they haven't done much to change my mind.

Wells .258/.321/..414    OPS+92
Thomas .223/.357/..400  OPS+100

I'm sure most will say both players will be back to their all-star form soon, but the fact remains these 2 players have really hurt the Jays by their lack of production. We're already about 1/3rd into the season. I'm surprised both players have been given a free pass by the media and the fans.


John Northey - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#169108) #
Sadly iirc the rules say you can only DH for the pitcher.

Of course, that didn't stop Billy Martin from using a pitcher as a DH back on June 11th 1988 (his final year managing). He used Rick Rhoden as the DH to ensure he had an all right handed lineup. Rhoden was 0-1 with a sac fly in a game the Yankees won 8-6 - http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA198806110.shtml - so you could say Martin did the right thing. Sadly the Yankees went 3-7 after that and Martin was fired with the team in 2nd place, 2 1/2 games out. Pinella came in and pushed them to 5th place and 3 1/2 out. Sadly Martin never managed again and would die a year and a half later.
Mick Doherty - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#169110) #

Sadly iirc the rules say you can only DH for the pitcher.

I don't have access to a rulebook right now, but I think that's wrong -- I believe you can DH for any player, but only one position per game, so no "double switch" if you DH for Fasano then move Phillips in later, you can't suddenly DH for the pitcher.

I seem to vaguely recall someone -- thinking here it was either Veeck's White Sox or the Phillies in the World Series with Carlton -- DHing for a position player and hitting the pitcher eighth, but I might be making that up ...

Four Seamer - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#169111) #

It pains me to have to correct Mick, but I believe John is correct in this case, at least as far as the Major League rules are concerned.  Here's a relevant extract from Rule 6.10 (emphasis mine):

6.10 Any League may elect to use the Designated Hitter Rule.

(a) In the event of inter league competition between clubs of Leagues using the Designated Hitter Rule and clubs of Leagues not using the Designated Hitter Rule, the rule will be used as follows:

1. In World Series or exhibition games, the rule will be used or not used as is the practice of the home team.

2. In All Star games, the rule will only be used if both teams and both Leagues so agree.

(b) The Rule provides as follows: A hitter may be designated to bat for the starting pitcher and all subsequent pitchers in any game without otherwise affecting the status of the pitcher(s) in the game. A Designated Hitter for the pitcher must be selected prior to the game and must be included in the lineup cards presented to the Umpire in Chief.

MatO - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#169112) #

Since this time last year, the loonie has gained about 5% in value on the american dollar. This means a payroll of about 82 million american (the approximate 2007 figure) used to cost the Jays about $92 million Canadian. The same 82 million now only costs them about $87 million. That's (he said patronizingly doing the basic subtraction) a savings of $5 million dollars, which costs the Blue Jays nothing. It's free money, essentially. Note I'm being generous going back to a year ago. In March, when the payroll was basically settled, the $82 million was about $95 million Canadian. That's 8 million kicking around. Of course, I'm oversimplifying, since the exchange rate was rising during the last two months, and not all of the savings have been realized yet...

Unfortunately there are two sides to this.  Any money the Jays get from MLB (TV contracts, revenue sharing etc.) is also in $US so some of the inflow is also affected.  In the days of the 64 cent dollar the Jays used to say that every penny the $CDN rose it saved them about $400,000CDN so I would use that estimate making it a recent savings of about $2.5M.CDN.

ChicagoJaysFan - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#169114) #
Unfortunately there are two sides to this.  Any money the Jays get from MLB (TV contracts, revenue sharing etc.) is also in $US so some of the inflow is also affected.  In the days of the 64 cent dollar the Jays used to say that every penny the $CDN rose it saved them about $400,000CDN so I would use that estimate making it a recent savings of about $2.5M.CDN.

I can't remember where, but I've read that the Jays pretty much hedge most of their exchange rates on a year-by-year basis, so the change in the market exchange rate probably doesn't give them any increased finances for this year - although it should help next year.
Mick Doherty - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#169115) #

It pains me to have to correct Mick

No pain, no gain, sir. My memory is clearly at fault. My co-workers could tell you this is a common happenstance.

MatO - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#169117) #
I can't remember where, but I've read that the Jays pretty much hedge most of their exchange rates on a year-by-year basis, so the change in the market exchange rate probably doesn't give them any increased finances for this year - although it should help next year.
You're right about that but I remember Godfrey lamenting in the days of the 65 cent dollar that the Jays had hedged as usual and the $CDN had taken off on its climb and they had missed the boat.  I wonder if they still do it.  If they do then you are correct.
AWeb - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#169118) #
That's true, I hadn't considered the revenue sources or possible hedging of the money in advance.  Significant savings will start adding up eventually though. Almost all games televised nationally to a 30 million person market, no currency worries, owner willing to spend money, now all the franchise needs to do is win. We're also way up against the Pound lately, so we can finally afford those British scouts...

As to how high the dollar might go, I recall reading yesterday that 0.95 was reasonable by September, at par by the end of the year. I don't recall the last time this was this high, since I was busy being born and all.  Today, it traded above 0.94, so it's basically there already. If I'm remembering correctly, the Jays got a bit of a bail out when the dollar sunk low. If the dollar surges above $1.00, does this mean US teams start demanding some payback?
Matthew E - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#169123) #
If the dollar surges above $1.00, does this mean US teams start demanding some payback?

Because clearly the 29 U.S. teams would never be able to make the playoffs if the Jays had that kind of financial advantage. I like it. I'd like to see someone putting that argument forward.
ayjackson - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#169124) #

Because clearly the 29 U.S. teams would never be able to make the playoffs if the Jays had that kind of financial advantage. I like it. I'd like to see someone putting that argument forward.

Certainly, as worded, that is a hard argument to make.  However, one could argue that the Jays, if in a position of exchange-rate advantage, should repay to the league at the same rate, the money they received when they were in an exchange-rate disadvantage.  At the least, they could pay it into an MLB administered trust for any future period of exchange-rate woe.

ayjackson - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#169126) #

I hate to jinx things, but our current one-to-four starters have been good.  How good?  Well check out the numbers (I should warn you that I've hijacked the stats to make them go where I want them to go, but I'm sure they would have gone there on their own).....

Marcum in May - 29.1 IP,   7.99 K/g,   0.92 WHIP,   2.15 ERA

Burnett since May 1 - 38.0 IP,   10.66 K/g,   0.97 WHIP,   2.84 ERA

McGowan (last 2 GS) - 13.2 IP,   6.57 K/g,   1.17 WHIP,   3.28 ERA

Halladay (excluding 2 PreAppOp GS) - 54.1 IP,   6.63 K/g,   0.90 WHIP,   1.99 ERA

I hope it continues.

Mike Green - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#169127) #
How about putting it another way?  Halladay's 3 year record suggests an expected ERA of 3.3.  Burnett's 3 year record suggests an expected ERA of 4.0. Marcum and McGowan are too young to have an established pattern, but Marcum's major and minor league record suggests that 4.5-4.6 is a reasonable number.  McGowan could be anywhere from 3.5-6.5. Now that McGowan is in the rotation, I agree with the decision to leave him there for the duration, come hell or high water.  If the stars align, Brandon League will be back in late June and Janssen will move to the rotation...

2007 UZR's are now available on Tango's site. The most effective defender on the club by this measure so far is (drum roll) Adam Lind.  MGL would of course caution us against attaching too much weight to the UZR for such a short period, but I do agree that Lind is capable out there. Not a great defender, but an average one. That's all he needs to be.



CeeBee - Friday, June 01 2007 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#169130) #

"If you had told me in February that on June 1 the Jays would have both Howie Clark and Brian Wolfe on our 25-man roster, I'd never have believed you. If you had said the team had a 25-28 record at that point, I would have taken without hesitation."

And if you had told me that Aaron Hill would be tied for 2nd on the Jays in Home runs and be ahead of  Vernon Wells I would have figured you to be crazy as well. Such is the life of baseball predictions and really that's what makes sports such fun.

Efficient Baseball | 35 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.