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Imagine Shaun Marcum with a faster fastball and a lower homer rate.

Now, imagine that guy facing Marcum as the starting pitcher for the Dodgers tonight...


OK, it's not really that bad. That guy is sophomore righthander Chad Billingsley. And he doesn't have Marcum's changeup, and this is just his first start of 2007.

Billingsley has patiently bided his time in the Dodgers' pen this year, waiting for Jason Schmidt to accept the reality that he's not healthy or for the seemingly endless parade of Hendricksons and Tomkos to pitch their way out of the rotation or for Randy Wolf to stop being so damn awesome or something. As it turns out, Schmidt has finally trudged back onto the DL, and Billingsley has finally been given the opportunity to show off his stuff in LA's rotation.

Tonight's combatants have plenty in common, in addition to merely having escaped their respective pens by brute force. For one thing, they've both improved a lot since last year:



For Marcum's part it seems like an eternity ago that he was buried in the bullpen behind the Jays' own more 'proven' starting pitchers. As we're all aware, Marcum, like Billingsley, forced his way into the rotation on the strength of outstanding K/BB numbers. He struck out 30.6% of hitters as a reliever while walking only 8.3%. As a starter, he's outperformed everyone's expectations, compiling a 2.38 ERA, a 3-0 record and 1.12 WPA in 41.2 innings. His average of 6.0 innings per start is weighed down by a pitch count in his debut (in which he went 6 innings anyway) and an injury-shortened start June 3 against the White Sox.

I think Billingsley is pretty likely to cement his place in the Dodgers' rotation in similar fashion. His peripheral stats are light years ahead of where they were a year ago. He credits that improvement to increased aggressiveness and continuing to use all of his pitches, even in short relief appearances. As he tells Ben Bolch of the LA Times, "Last year, I was pressing and just giving the hitters a little too much credit. I just always thought I had to be so perfect with my pitches, and that's what allowed me to get way behind in the count to the hitters." Young pitchers who just had the Great Revelation all seem to say that, don't they?

(Oh yeah... he's young. Did I mention he's 22? He's 22. Going on 23 in July.)

Anyway, stuffwise, Billingsley has a lot in common with Dustin McGowan. He throws in the high 90s with his heater - maybe not quite as hard when he's pitching as a starter; we'll see - and he's got a pair of nasty breaking balls in his slider and hook. The slider comes in in the high 80s and breaks hard sideways; the curve clocks in around 80 and breaks 12-6. He makes a bunch of Pirates look like Pirates on the first highlight listed here. Apparently he also throws a changeup occasionally. (So does A.J. Burnett.)

Grady Little wants Billingsley to focus on keeping pitch counts down, according to the Dodgers' official site's Ken Gurnick. "We have to make sure he doesn't lose sight of the way he's pitched just because he's a starting pitcher. He needs the same approach."

Although Billingsley looks like a tough matchup for the Jays, they're in luck - he will be on a 55-to-60-pitch leash, says Bolch.

Little says, "We're certainly not going to push him too far in his first time or two. We feel by his third start he should be hopefully ready to go 90, 95 pitches." And the Dodgers' bullpen isn't in any condition to go 9 rounds after last night's mauling, in which the Dodgers used their two big guns and hung one of their long guys out to dry. Brett Tomko threw 53 pitches, Joe Beimel 13, Jonathan Broxton 17 and Takashi Saito 14. That leaves Rudy Seanez and Mark Hendrickson fresh. Such is life when you only have six relievers, I guess... (Are there any other arguments for the 7-man bullpen?)

So the deck's stacked in the Jays' favor. Although, I'm pretty sure Marcum was on a reasonably short leash in his first start, and the Devil Rays sort of didn't get their first hit of that game until the seventh inning.

Yep. That's tonight's ballgame. Nice little under-the-radar pitching matchup. Billingsley and Marcum, 7:07 at the Dome. Should be fun while it lasts. I'll be there.
21 June 2007: We Don't Serve Beer To Bears In Bars | 7 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Dr B - Thursday, June 21 2007 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#170319) #

I feel sorry for poor ole Gronk. He cools his heels on the bench for a few days, and then, when he finally makes his debut and pitches four innings of pretty decent mop-up, he gets sent down. Ok, so they need another arm in the bullpen, and Gronk's arm was probably going to fall off, but still, I hope he gets another chance. He's spent a loooong time in the minors waiting for his cup of coffee, I think he deserves the chance.

 

scottt - Thursday, June 21 2007 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#170325) #
What Toronto really needs in the bullpen is a lefty who can face 1 or 2 hitter a day.

Scott Downs has been so-so in that role and there's no reason to blame him. He was supposed to be the long relief guy.





Craig B - Thursday, June 21 2007 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#170327) #

In fact, Scott Downs has been just fine when facing 1 or 2 batters this year.  In his appearances with 1 or 2 BF, Downs has 4 2/3 innings pitched, with 3 hits, five walks and six strikeouts.  His opposition OBP is .364 but his opposition BA is just .176.  He's been charged with just one run from all those batters, which was Giambi's home run last month.  The Jays won that game, though that was the only lead Downs has blown all year.

The good numbers in 1- and 2- batter stints does dovetail quite nicely with Downs's split numbers.  When he faces only 1 or 2 guys they are sure to be lefties, and Downs has owned lefties all year long, they are hitting .130 off him with *two* extra base hits in 56 trips.  .130/.286/.217 for all lefties.

That points to where Downs has been ill-used... he's actually been much less effective in longer stints or when he's asked to deliver against tough righties, like the day after the Giambo homer when he was ordered to give Jeter an intentional walk and then after getting Matsui was asked to retire A-Rod with runners on first and third!  NOT exactly where I would want Downs, but the only other guy left was Brian Wolfe.  (Of course, once Downs gave up a single to A-Rod, Wolfe allowed Downs's two runners to score.  Can someone please remind me why Brian Wolfe has four appearances in the major leagues this year when Gronk *just* got his first action?)

Anyway, Downs has made 34 appearances this year and allowed more than one baserunner just six times.  Two of those, he didn't gve up any runs this year.  I don't see how anyone can argue that Downs (high walk numbers aside) has been anything other than outstanding this season.

Frank Markotich - Friday, June 22 2007 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#170344) #
Well Craig, those runners of Downs'  that Wolfe "allowed" to score came after Wolfe gave up the "single" to Posada on the infamous A-Rod popup play, which would have ended the inning. One scored on that play, and another later.
Mike Green - Friday, June 22 2007 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#170345) #
Can someone please remind me why Brian Wolfe has four appearances in the major leagues this year when Gronk *just* got his first action?

It is just a theory, but it might have something to with the mph on their fastballs.  Sigh. 
scottt - Friday, June 22 2007 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#170413) #
Oppoents are hitting .294 against Downs with runners in scoring position. .500 when there's also 2 out.   He's not really an inning closer. 
Mike Green - Friday, June 22 2007 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#170415) #
Over his career, Downs' splits are entirely normal.  There is no hint of poor clutch pitching that I can see. 
21 June 2007: We Don't Serve Beer To Bears In Bars | 7 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.