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So the Jays are nine games out of the wild card. But, liberated from the pressure that accompanies being in serious playoff contention, they still have an opportunity to cause mischief in the AL West race. The Angels' lead over Seattle is down to two games.

Toronto will see an Angels team that has received an infusion of youth since last week. A rejuvenated Ervin Santana, a healthy Howie Kendrick and the much-hyped Brandon Wood are all in the house.


Tonight's starter is hard-throwing 24-year-old righty Ervin "Magic" Santana. Anyone with a higher homer rate than Shaun Marcum is in trouble, and Santana is such a pitcher. After getting bombed by the Devil Rays on July 17, Santana was sent to Salt Lake for a vision quest. He managed a 5.01 ERA in five AAA starts. So naturally when the Angels needed an emergency starter to feed to Josh Beckett in Friday's Fenway doubleheader, they knew where to look. And Santana delivered 6.1 stellar innings, allowing 1 run, 5 strikeouts, 0 walks and a 2-1 lead. After numerous blown saves on both sides, the Angels came away with the win, and Santana was given his spot in the rotation back. He's aware of the mental side of the game and knows he has to be confident: "I know everybody wants me here -- to pull myself together and pitch the way I can pitch is important now."

His catchers were impressed. Jeff Mathis sat the game out, but he noticed Santana doing a good job of pitching inside, and liked his conviction on the mound: "For Ervin, getting him to commit to a pitch, to throw the ball to a location, is important." And backup Ryan Budde, who'd caught Santana often throughout his minor-league career and picked up his own first career hit in that game, said, "He threw with a good, quick pace, put the fastball where he wanted it and the slider where he wanted it. He has good chemistry with Santana and may catch tonight. He likes being on the pitcher's wavelength: "I feel like I'm just as much a part of it as the pitcher ... He only shook me off a few times. I tell him to, but he doesn't want to."

Matt Stairs is 3-7 with two homers against Santana.

Here is an article by Larry Santana in which Mike Scioscia describes Ervin Santana as "a sensitive kid." Larry alludes to Ervin's strong dislike for media types that has "cooled considerably" since he first came up.

Jered Weaver goes tomorrow night against Roy Halladay. Last September in Anaheim, they faced each other, and Doc only lasted 0.2 innings before being relieved by losing picher Charlie Wholestaff. Weaver went 5.2 innings, allowing 3 runs, striking out 8 and walking 3, which is reasonably close to what one can expect whenever he takes the mound. Weaver throws a fastball, slider, change and maybe an occasional curveball. His big asset is that he's one of the best pitchers in the league at hiding the ball. Jeff Conine faced Weaver in his big-league debut last year and came away impressed: "When you face a guy who hides the ball like he does, it takes a couple of at-bats to try to find his release point," he said, on his way to going 0-3 with a strikeout. That quote's from a Rich Lederer article at Baseball Analysts which contains pictures of Weaver's delivery.

If hitters are inclined to go deep into the count against Weaver early in the ballgame, as Conine says, it's reflected in Weaver's substandard 5.7 innings per start. The Jays' predominantly righthanded lineup might be in tough against Weaver, who has 3.47 K/BB against righties and 1.39 against lefties, but their patience should mitigate the platoon disadvantage somewhat.

Weaver has one other potential weakness: the running game. Prospective basestealers are 13/14 this year and 24/28 all-time. It's a small sample, but if the Jays are feeling down after the Oakland sweep and want to try something a little different now that they're basically out of it, tomorrow is the time to go for it.

The Jays will see Joe Saunders and Kelvim Escobar again in games three and four of the series, and they may encounter well-rested swingman Dustin Moseley out of the bullpen.

Howie Kendrick is back! The future batting champ (once he strikes out just a bit less) suffered a fractured index finger early in July and spent a month on the DL. In three games since returning, all against the Yankees, Kendrick has gone 8-12 with two doubles, a walk and no strikeouts. He's already been elevated to the 5-hole in Anaheim's lineup.

K-Rod is a darkhorse contender for the AL's prestigious Best Closer Entrance Music award. He emerges to Tego Calderon's remarkably sinister "Sandungueoso," which, if nothing else, is the most obscure entry in the competition. It's never appeared on any of Calderon's albums.

And the Angels called up 22-year-old infielder Richard Brandon Wood for the second time this year. The standard disclaimers about power-hitting prospects in the Angels' system apply, but Wood can mash. 20 homers to date at Salt Lake, 25 last year in Arkansas, 43 a couple of years ago at Rancho Cucamonga. He has also had awful strikeout rates throughout his minor-league career - 21.5%, 28.5%, 24.5% in 2005, '06 and '07 to go with 8.1.%, 10.3% and 9.7% walk rates respectively. However, he has been young for his league at every stop.

Here is John Sickels on Wood's skill set, from an April Prospect Smackdown: An excellent athlete, he's developed plus power due to an uppercut swing and excellent bat speed. He has power to all fields and despite his high strikeout rates, he is not a pure pull hitter. He'll attempt to work the count, but he'll also go through phases where he is overaggressive against breaking balls and changeups. He isn't likely to hit for a high batting average, but he should produce more than enough power to compensate. Wood has decent speed and while he won't be a huge stealer, he can't be ignored, either. Defensively, he has the range, hands, and arm strength to handle shortstop without trouble, but has been moved to third base this year due to the needs of the organization. With some experience, he should be a very good, perhaps excellent, defender at the hot corner. Indeed, Wood has seen time at both third and short in his second Anaheim stint.

The Credit Section: All offensive stats, pitches per PA for pitchers and league average stats are from the Hardball Times. Pitchers' stats and leverage indices are from Fangraphs. Minor-league stats are from Minor League Splits and First Inning. K% and BB% are strikeouts and walks as a percentage of plate appearances; GB% + LD% + FB% = 100.


Advance Scout: Angels of Anaheim, August 23-26 | 23 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Friday, August 24 2007 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#173507) #
Brandon Wood  actually had a poor season in 2007.  .264/.335/.474 sounds pretty good for a shortstop, but the translation from Salt Lake to Anaheim is murder.  At this point, he'd be lucky to hit .230 in the major leagues with some pop and few walks.  A good hitting prospect like Casey Kotchman will hit .370/.420/.550 or something in Salt Lake.

I missed the Aaron Hill long fly in the fourth inning.  Gameday had it as a ball out of the yard which Garret Anderson pulled back.  Was that right?  If so, that would make 3 in a month, and Hill might be advised to do some additional charitable work to "restore his karma" in addition to changing his coming-to-the-plate music. 

subculture - Friday, August 24 2007 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#173513) #
Yeah, Aaron's gotta give to some charities, but hitting the weights or just a teensy bit more strength exercises could help too.  He reminds me of Rios 2 years ago, who must have led the league in doubles off the top of the fence, despite very few homers.... hopefully Hill's going thru the same kinda curve...
Gerry - Friday, August 24 2007 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#173518) #
I remember the Hill blast being a foot or two short of the wall, definitely not over the wall.
Mike Green - Friday, August 24 2007 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#173520) #
Thanks, Gerry.  Gameday is not always entirely reliable!
Mylegacy - Friday, August 24 2007 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#173524) #

This is just Hill's second full year in the bigs. He is only 25, the age that power starts to manifest itself. I'm sure I remember at least a dozen shots to the wall, or very near it this year. If Hill puts even a tiny bit more muscle on he's a 20 to 25 homer guy. Could we ever use that next year!

As it is he's hit 13 homers so far with a .429 slugging %.

ahitisahit - Friday, August 24 2007 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#173526) #

A lot of Hill's HR's came in the early part of the season as well.

I can't say enough about Matt Stairs. His offensive numbers are as good as Glaus' for about $11 million less.

christaylor - Friday, August 24 2007 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#173527) #
The problem with Hill's increase in slugging is that it has gone along with an equal decrease in OBP. I'd rather he go back to being a .360 OBP guy with fewer HR as if this team is hitting as it should, the Jays need runners on base, not 10 more HR from Hill.
Blue in SK - Friday, August 24 2007 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#173528) #

The recent article by Blair doesn't instill a lot of faith in me about the potential of the Jays next year. Hopefully JP doesn't use the injury bug of this year to sit still in the off-season.

To me, at minimum, the Jays need to find an everyday SS with some offensive abilitties and a competent backup for 3rd base. That's assuming that Sparky returns to pre-injury levels. Some additional speed in the line up would also be nice as well as some lefty, righty balance.

JP does have an asset to trade that nobody seems to speculate about and that could maybe net the Jays a SS...Accardo is young, under salary control and has been highly effective as a closer in what amounts to his first year in that role. Of course, the provisio is that BJ is ready to pitch next year.

Mick Doherty - Friday, August 24 2007 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#173530) #

Alex, this is really exceptionally well-written. Kudos!

And I really am bored out of my head by the Angels, usually, so this was a real pleasure to read. One question -- okay, two -- about Santana. First, is he really nicknamed "Magic," or did you come up with that based on his first name? (Good one either way.) Second, does anyone know if the Santana who writes for MLB.com about the Angels is actually related to Ervin? I don't know, maybe that's a really common Latino surname, but it's unusual enough to my ear to make me wonder about possible conflict of interest angles.

Alex Obal - Friday, August 24 2007 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#173539) #
I'll say no and no, though those are both complete guesses. Since Ervin plays for (nominally) an LA team, I would estimate that about 314,000 Angels fans have already come up with the Magic thing. But I don't think we're anywhere close to the tipping point where everyone calls him that yet.
Lefty - Friday, August 24 2007 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#173544) #
I find the Angels to be a very interesting team to observe. A club built on decent pitching and team speed. Last night they had a DH with no homers and third baseman with five. Their regular third bagger has three on the year.

Only one true power threat in Vlady (21)and secondary power from Matthews (16), Kotchman (9),Anderson (8), and they are still fourth in runs scored this season.

I'm sure they would gladly trade one of their super smurf's for a true power source though. Perhaps they are the new version of a Moneyball team. Undervalued light hitting speedsters.







Nigel - Friday, August 24 2007 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#173547) #
Well, the real story about the Angel's offense is not the speedy little guys per se (although some of that speed does help in various offensive ways), but its the old traditional OBP - their .342 is tied for 3rd in the league.  Living on the West Coast I see them play quite a bit and yesterday's first inning was testbook Angel's baseball.  Get on base and go 1st to 3rd on just about every single.  It's about as far from the current Jay's offensive philosophy as you can get.  My own subjective sense of it, having seen them play maybe 14-15 times this year, is that they have been unusually lucky with that philosophy (i.e. bunching hits together, many many 2 out singles, etc.) and are not a particularly good offensive team, but that may just have been in the games I've seen.
BigTimeRoyalsFan - Friday, August 24 2007 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#173549) #
Here's an excellent John McDonald highlight compilation.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9UNx7ei1xk

I scoff at the notion that Olmedo "fields a little better as well". I suspect McDonald could have prevented all 3 runs yesterday not soloed out by Vladdie.
BigTimeRoyalsFan - Friday, August 24 2007 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#173550) #
That should read both runs.
Gerry - Saturday, August 25 2007 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#173555) #
John Lott has an excellent story on Shaun Marcum in the National Post today.
christaylor - Saturday, August 25 2007 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#173558) #
Last night clinched it. I'm tired of seeing this offense. I like McDonald's defense (and certainly don't believe Olmedo's better) but I'd like to see both Olmedo and Thigpen in there four out of five days. Come September 1st, Johnson should ride the pine to give Lind (and perhaps John-Ford Griffin) an extended look. JP should learn from what happened with the pitching staff. This team isn't going any where in 2008, if it is stil starting three backup quality players at SS, C and LF.
BigTimeRoyalsFan - Saturday, August 25 2007 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#173560) #
"I'm tired of seeing this offense. This team isn't going any where in 2008, if it is stil starting three backup quality players at SS, C and LF."

I'm tired of seeing posts like that.

                            Career                   2007
Overbay           .288/.368/.459       .257/.342/.414
Wells                .284/.332/.485       .261/.312/.437
Thomas           
.303/.422/.561       .263/.372/.469
Zaun               
.251/.342/.384       .229/.314/.379
Glaus               
.253/.356/.498       .249/.344/.442
Johnson
           .285/.346/.418       .261/.323/.364

That is 6 of your regulars significantly underachieving from their career averages. No one is even asking for all star years, just career norms. This team is good enough to win, and it was good enough to win this year.  While upgrading at the 3 positions you stated would be nice, they aren't the root of the problem. It's also hard to account for the lack of production from Johnson, because LF should be a platoon situation, like it was last year. I simply do not agree with the premise that this team can't "go anywhere" with a Reed platoon and Zaun and JMac in the lineup. All that is needed is for the roster assembled to actually hit like it is capable of doing and this team can definitely go somewhere.
christaylor - Saturday, August 25 2007 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#173561) #
As for the numbers for the six regulars you cite: Johnson's career numbers are inflated by a season that was an aberration (and an OBP in that season that was inflated by a high BABIP). He certainly ought to be in a platoon, or even better, the 4th OF. As for Zaun, what makes you think Zaun isn't on the decline for good? Much better players have a hit a wall in their mid-30s. Wells is having his worst season offensively, but if in 2008, the Wells of 2004/2005 shows up, he won't be appreciably better. Thomas won't return to his career average because well, he'll be 40. His 2007 performance isn't under-performing, it is about the best we can expect from him. Granted Glaus and Overbay will be better, but they've been playing hurt.

Plus there's the implicit premise in your post that this team is good enough to win in 2008 if the offense returns to career norms AND the pitching staff is able to replicate its 2007 success, while the offense probably isn't bound to be as bad as 2007, I'm not sure the pitching staff can repeat the success it has had in 2007.

You may tired of seeing posts like that, but you're burying you head in the sand if you don't think there's something to the sentiment - this team won't sniff the playoffs unless it is upgraded in a significant way.
BigTimeRoyalsFan - Saturday, August 25 2007 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#173564) #
I agree with the fact that Johnson should be part of a platoon, to maximize production from the LF spot. Zaun put up 3 solid, consistent years for the Jays (2004-2006), and I'd like to think that it has more to do with this hand injury than the fact that he is suddenly hitting a wall at 35. I grant you that it could be attributed to going from a platoon player to an everyday one. Wells is Wells. Glaus and Overbay, as you pointed out, should be MUCH better next year, assuming they both heal completely. I heard I believe from Wilner that Overbay said he isn't even hitting jacks in batting practice, that the strength just isn't their yet. I often forget that Glaus just turned 31 - there's no reason, if his foot heals, that we shouldn't see a hefty increase in his numbers. That brings us to Thomas. I definitely expected a decline from his career #s for the Big Hurt, but such a decline? Maybe I should have just posted the more applicable stats from 2006, to show that he fell quickly off a cliff. Power should never just disappear like that, maybe he's on to something about the doctored baseballs!

2006     .270/.381/.545
2007     .263/.372/.469



christaylor - Saturday, August 25 2007 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#173565) #
It looks as we if agree more than disagree. If Johnson and Zaun are both put in platoons and JMac replaced with a SS with league average SS offense. I'd be happy, but I'd also consider that a significant change to the team though too and JP seems to be ruling out significant changes. We're in total agreement over Glaus and Overbay - they ought to be OK; Glaus just needs rest and a good orthotic and Overbay ought to be getting more rest than he's been given but his hand ought to heal in the off-season.

That leaves Thomas, I don't know that I'd call his stats falling off a cliff, if you look at where his SLG% has disappeared, he's got more 2B than last year and fewer HR. I'd be neat to take a look at Thomas' stats via hit-tracker, but if he's just lost enough power to lost 15-20 feet when he connects that could easily explain the drop in SLG. I'm not unhappy with Thomas, he's picked it up after a lousy start and his OBP has been good enough all season.

But back to my original comment, JP should tell Gibbons forget about posting a .500 record, play Thigpen, Olmedo and Lind (or Griffin). It might ruffle some feathers but, the team needs to know whether any of these plays are options in 2008 (I'm guessing yes for Lind, maybe for Thigpen and no for everyone else). If Thigpen is too objectionable behind the plate, have him spell Overbay (perhaps a team will see enough to make him an attractive trading chip like Gabe Gross) and/or call up Diaz. Learn from what's happened with Marcum/McGowan, let the kids play then think about what can be done to improve the team. The 1991 Jays team was good enough to make the playoffs, but Gillick was smart enough to improve that team. Hopefully, JP isn't going to stand pat.
dan gordon - Sunday, August 26 2007 @ 12:05 AM EDT (#173569) #

as well as some lefty righty balance

Righties are absolutely killing the Jays this year.  The team's OPS vs righties is .718 compared to .830 vs lefties.  That 112 point difference is enormous.  When you look at  other AL teams, you see that virtually all of them have a difference of maybe 20 or 30 points.  The only team even close to having as big a split is the Yankees, and their relative 'weakness' is hitting against lefties, so it is not nearly as important, since you play so many fewer games vs lefties.  When you have a team OPS of .718 vs righties you have a very serious problem.

christaylor - Sunday, August 26 2007 @ 07:36 AM EDT (#173571) #
Perhaps my thinking on this issue isn't sophisticated enough, but with almost 4/5 of the PA appearances being against RHP and nearly the same proportion of PA being RHB in the Jays line up how meaningful is it really to talk about splits for this team?

Saying that this team can't hit RHP is almost exactly the same as saying RHB can't hit RHP, which is well known, tried and true baseball wisdom. The trick with this RH heavy lineup this year was supposed to be that we had RHB who hit RHP well (.783 OPS last year)... it turns out that assumption was false.

[rant=on]
I'm left wondering whether which year is the aberration, this year or last year and if there's any evidence in the data that last year was an aberration (Johnson's surprise/fluky 2006 numbers perhaps? Wells' 2004/2005 stats? Zaun's platoon splits in 2006?) then why'd JP assemble this team, instead of a more balanced one? Did he believe his own press about the 2006 team being great offensively when it was mediocre (7th in the AL in 2006 in terms of R/G)?

I'm being a little facetious here, but looking back at the offense of 2006, it seems obvious that it needed an upgrade. Thomas was part of what needed to be done (an upgrade at DH was necessary and Thomas a good bet and I'm not disappointed by what he's done) but what was done at SS, C (and to a lesser extent LF, as unconvinced as people ought to have been by Johnson, I can understand it being fun to hope that 2006 wasn't a mirage). Looking at the offense of 2007, it is just as obvious that it needs an upgrade as well. Even if Glaus and Overbay return to career norms and Wells has an "on" (2003/2006) year, this will not be an above-average offense in 2008 without significant changes.

I've just found this season really frustrating. One of the best looking pitching staffs the Jays have ever had (from May on) is being wasted with this anemic offense and I'd hate to see that happen again next year (even with a little regression next year, this will still be an above-average staff in 2008) and would go from being a fan of JP (can't you tell by this post?) to someone who might think the people at firejpricciardi.com are making some sense.
[rant=off]

Sorry for the rant... looking at some numbers from this year and last in a little bit of detail, just made things boil over for me this morning. Any helpful suggestions or possible psychological treatments ("serenity now" doesn't seem to be working) for my frustration with this team would be greatly appreciated.
tstaddon - Sunday, August 26 2007 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#173572) #
While Gregg Zaun played one of his better games last night, I can't help but wonder: why on earth wasn't Curtis Thigpen starting? He's playing less than Jason Phillips ever did, despite outhitting and out-defensing him. We're 65-64. It makes absolutely no sense.
Advance Scout: Angels of Anaheim, August 23-26 | 23 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.