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Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein rank their top 100 prospects.  Both have Travis Snider at #7.  Law had Brett Cecil at 63.  And that's it for the Jays on these lists.

Law went a little against the grain with Evan Longoria as the top prospect.




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ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, January 31 2008 @ 01:09 PM EST (#179571) #
Surprised that Law says Cecil could hit the majors this year.
Gerry - Thursday, January 31 2008 @ 01:52 PM EST (#179574) #
I was surprised by Law's comment on Cecil.  The Jays used Cecil in the rotation in 2007 and are expected to do the same in 2008.  So Law's comment about Cecil making the major league bullpen this season seems to be almost irrelevant as that's not what the Jays are expected to do.
Thomas - Thursday, January 31 2008 @ 02:04 PM EST (#179575) #
It's interesting to look at the discrepancies between the two lists. One of the most noticeable is Lars Anderson, a 1B in the Red Sox system who they drafted in the 13th round and paid high-round money for. He seems like he might be worth it as Law ranks him as the 28th best prospect in baseball, whereas Goldstein only puts him at #100.

Law also ranks German Duran, a 2B/3B for the Rangers at 48 and Goldstein doesn't rank him at all. Conversely, Goldstein has Ranger Neftali Feliz at 30 and Pirate Steven Pearce at 43, neither of whom appears on Law's list.

Also of note, there were 9 members of the Red Sox, Yankees or Rays in Law's Top 25. With Wieters and Snider that's 11 from the AL East of the Top 25. (Plus, Tampa Bay has spot 26 and the Red Sox have 28.)
Dave Rutt - Thursday, January 31 2008 @ 02:15 PM EST (#179576) #
Longoria is three years younger than Wright today

Think of how much younger he'll be in 5 years!
Mylegacy - Thursday, January 31 2008 @ 02:35 PM EST (#179579) #

All being equal - which of course it never is - each of the 30 teams should have three(ish) in the top 100. The Jays have two, at least in KLaw's. Not good, but what the hay.

There is a real problem with these lists, you have to balance guys that are 18 or 19 with GREAT upside with guys that are 23 - 24 and are finally major league ready - but may not have the "possible" upside of another guy. Remember "potential" is what could be - not not will be. Going over these top 100 lists over the decades you see tons of "shouda beens and never weres."

The depth of KLaw's comments impresses me. He seems to have a detailed mental picture of who the guy is and who he will become. His comments on Cecil are just that, as we know, relievers can move quicker than starters. Cecil has enough major league ready stuff to excell in the bullpen this year. To start, some things have to come together, another pitch or so has to get major league ready- but - his worse case senario is to be a top closer. Not so worse.

Sometime we should do a "Snider Comparison" thread. Is this guy the man that hits like the man called Prince or is he Hendu Two?  Is he Kerby Puckett or Paul Molitor on steroids? Hopefully, he turns into Travis Snider; just plain everyday, every year, MVP. 

ayjackson - Thursday, January 31 2008 @ 03:38 PM EST (#179582) #
Keith Law rarely makes much sense, but his comments on Cecil, and inclusion in the Top 100 in light of them, are baffling.  It's as though he didn't know that Cecil started all year for Auburn.  Given he thinks he projects as a reliever, it's puzzling that he'd include him in the Top 100 when so many scouts like him as a starter, but consider him a bit too far off for the Top 100.
Hal - Thursday, January 31 2008 @ 03:47 PM EST (#179583) #
Anyone here an ESPN insider - and able to fill us in on who rounds out Law's top 5 Jays prospects?
ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, January 31 2008 @ 03:53 PM EST (#179584) #
Anyone here an ESPN insider - and able to fill us in on who rounds out Law's top 5 Jays prospects?

Pistol did so on the prospect poll (I'm assuming Snider is the 5th):

Keith Law put up his top 5 by organization at his ESPN blog. 

The big surprise (at least to me) is that he has Trystan Magnuson 4th.  4 of the top 5 were from this year's draft, but not in the drafted order:  Cecil, Ahrens, Magnuson and Arencibia.
Mylegacy - Thursday, January 31 2008 @ 03:54 PM EST (#179585) #

He has Snider, Cecil, Aherns, Magnuson, Arencibia in that order.

Magnuson way higher than anyone else.

Mylegacy - Thursday, January 31 2008 @ 04:01 PM EST (#179586) #
Marc, at Bluejayway has: Trystan Magnuson , RHP, 6'7" 210, born 6/85, 1st round supplemental 2007 draft, Born and raised in Vancouver! Had a 90 to 93 fastball but it has been tweaked by a pitching coach and is now up to 95, slider and occasional change-up. His uncle played in teh NHL.
ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, January 31 2008 @ 04:04 PM EST (#179587) #
Marc, at Bluejayway has: Trystan Magnuson , RHP, 6'7" 210, born 6/85, 1st round supplemental 2007 draft, Born and raised in Vancouver! Had a 90 to 93 fastball but it has been tweaked by a pitching coach and is now up to 95, slider and occasional change-up. His uncle played in teh NHL.

Was that before or after winning the World's Strongest Man titles?  Sorry, but Magnus ver Magnusson is the first thing that pops into my mind every time I read the name Trystan Magnuson.
Chuck - Thursday, January 31 2008 @ 04:23 PM EST (#179588) #
Keith Law rarely makes much sense

A little harsh, no?
Pistol - Thursday, January 31 2008 @ 04:31 PM EST (#179589) #
I was surprised by Law's comment on Cecil.  The Jays used Cecil in the rotation in 2007 and are expected to do the same in 2008.  So Law's comment about Cecil making the major league bullpen this season seems to be almost irrelevant as that's not what the Jays are expected to do.

The comment reads pretty much like his pre-draft evaluation, with just a couple tweaks.
jgadfly - Thursday, January 31 2008 @ 04:56 PM EST (#179590) #
ChicagoJaysFan ..." His uncle played in the NHL". ... you think of Magnus Samuelsen before you think of Chicago great and former captain of your hometown Black Hawks ... no wonder hockey has gone downhill in the Windy city .
Ryan Day - Thursday, January 31 2008 @ 06:44 PM EST (#179594) #
I think Law likes to make bold, occasionally unorthodox pronouncements, and often seems to add as much snark as possible, so he ends up looking particularly foolish when he's wrong.
ayjackson - Thursday, January 31 2008 @ 08:21 PM EST (#179595) #

A little harsh, no?

Yes.  Too harsh.  Keith Law often makes a lot of sense.  He's just not as smart as he thinks he is.  But then, none of us are.

Mike Green - Thursday, January 31 2008 @ 08:50 PM EST (#179598) #
The placement of the Rays' lefties- Davis, Price and McGee is interesting.  The consensus seems to be that they've got 3 A- to A lefty pitching prospects.  Odds are that one will be a star, one will have a few bright moments but not pitch more than 7 or 8 seasons at most, and the last will blow out his arm. 
HollywoodHartman - Friday, February 01 2008 @ 01:08 AM EST (#179599) #
I asked Law for his thoughts about Snider and he responded with, "Sniderís an offensive RF who plays adequate defense and will hit in the middle of the order, maybe 3rd, with average and power."
Craig B - Friday, February 01 2008 @ 09:21 PM EST (#179640) #
The placement of the Rays' lefties- Davis, Price and McGee is interesting.  The consensus seems to be that they've got 3 A- to A lefty pitching prospects.  Odds are that one will be a star, one will have a few bright moments but not pitch more than 7 or 8 seasons at most, and the last will blow out his arm.

Since this is the Rays, the greater likelihood is that none of them will amount to anything.  I know that's harsh, but if Jamie Shields can repeat his 2007, he'll be the very first pitcher the Rays have developed in the history of the franchise.
HollywoodHartman - Friday, February 01 2008 @ 11:17 PM EST (#179643) #
Law made a rough order of the systems, the Jays came in 23rd. This seems consistent with everything else we've been hearing. He had this to say about the bottom barrel folk in general.

"Thereís one consistent thing about the clubs in the bottom nine if we ignore the Tigers and Mets, who got to the bottom nine by trading their prospects: The other seven clubs have gotten nothing from Latin America in ages. The Twins, Pirates, Royals, Blue Jays, and White Sox in particular have done a horrid job in Latin America. Itís really hard to have a top-flight farm system if you pretend the world stops south of Puerto Rico."
ayjackson - Saturday, February 02 2008 @ 12:00 AM EST (#179648) #
Travis Snider, JP Arencibia, Ryan Patterson and Brian Jeroloman (among others) are non-roster invitees to Spring Training for the Jays.
Jdog - Saturday, February 02 2008 @ 12:43 AM EST (#179649) #
Was that link actually supposed to show us the others or was this a mean trick
ayjackson - Saturday, February 02 2008 @ 09:34 AM EST (#179653) #

Was that link actually supposed to show us the others or was this a mean trick

I don't know what happened there.  If this one doesn't work, go to bluejays.mlb.com and look under the Roster heading.

 

katman - Monday, February 04 2008 @ 10:54 AM EST (#179676) #
RE: Jays and Latin American players (#179643)... very insightful point. I don't know why that hadn't registered with me sooner, given the role of Eppy Guererro in the club's heyday, but it hadn't.

In terms of the club's overall success over the medium-long term, it strikes me that throwing $2 million per year at that problem over the next 5 years would be a better use of club funds than signing one additional marginal major leaguer to fill out the roster. Reduce B by one each year, and invest it in A.
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