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Hey, we're not the only ones remembering Cito...

I came across the following over at the Tao of Stieb:

Watching Game 6 of the 1992 World Series last night, it struck us that the great and knighted Cito Gaston had a propensity to make some bone-headed decisions. Cito inserted Jimmy Key into the game in the 10th, but didn't bother with a double switch which would have moved Key further down the lineup and moving the more defensively sure John Olerud into the field. Instead, Key was inserted directly into the lineup, which meant that he had to lead off the next inning.

If Gibby pulled anything close to that in a meaningless game in April, the entire press box and Jays blogosphere would be in absolute paroxysms of rage for months afterwards.


This struck a deep and resonant chord. Being ancient and full of... years, among other things, I have vivid memories of actually living through much of this history. So let me drag myself away from my current studies of the 2008 Atlanta Braves, and think back upon that tense struggle with their 1992 squad.

For I remember thinking that very thing as it happened, on that Saturday night in October sixteen years ago. I actually spoke aloud to the radio - wait a second? The pitcher's spot is up first next inning? And no double switch? Earth to Cito! Why?

And why the radio, you ask? My television was broken. I watched Game 1 at a friend's place. Jays lost. After the Jays won the next three games, I went back to watch Game 5 on the tube. Which they lost. At that point, I resolved there would be no more screwing around, and committed myself to the radio. The things we do....

Anyway, I thought it very strange at the time, and if the Blue Jays hadn't almost instantly won the game, the series, and the whole damn championship - I don't know about paroxysms of rage but there would certainly have been some awkward questions.

But it's strange. What seemed inexplicable at the time doesn't seem quite so odd in retrospect. Granted, there's nothing like Winning the Damn World Series to cast a warm glow on just about anything. But bear with me!

Let's set the game situation. It's the bottom of the 10th. The score is tied 2-2. The top of the inning just ended with Pat Tabler pinch hitting for Manuel Lee. Here's your lineup:

White, cf
Alomar, 2b
Carter, 1b
Winfield, rf
Maldonado, lf
Gruber, 3b
Borders, c
Tabler, ph
Henke, p

Henke is due to lead off the next inning against Atlanta LH Charlie Liebrandt. But that's only if Henke makes it through the bottom of the10th. Which seems unlikely - he threw 28 pitches in the bottom of the 9th. Derek Bell has already been used as a pinch hitter. Alfredo Griffin obviously has to come into the game to play shortstop. Beyond that, you've still got John Olerud and Ed Sprague on the bench. In the bullpen, Mark Eichhorn, Mike Timlin, and Game 4 starter Jimmy Key are available. Key's had two days rest since working 7.2 innings (86 pitches) on Wednesday. Timlin and Eichhorn each worked a scoreless inning in Thursday's Game 5 defeat.

Leading off for the Braves is 3b Terry Pendleton, a switch-hitter. He'll be followed by two lefty batters, RF Dave Justice and 1B Sid Bream. What to do?

1. Gaston could have have immediately brought Key into the game, inserting him in the 8 spot in the order. Griffin would come in to play short, batting 9th, and leading off the next inning.

2. He leaves Henke in - Griffin goes in at short batting 8th.

Gaston went for Door Number 2, and Henke got Pendleton. The question at this point had really amounted this: who would you rather have pitch to Terry Pendleton - Tom Henke or Jimmy Key? Pendleton had faced Henke twice in his career, both times earlier in this series - he struck out and popped out in foul ground. The only time he had faced Key was when he went 0-3 against him in Game 4. He'd flied out to right and lined out twice.

Pendleton was a switch-hitter, but he had a long history of being much better against left-hand pitchers. In 1992, he hit .356 against them, and .290 against right-handers. His final career numbers would be .262 against RHP and .287 against LHP. 

The Jays had scouts, and Gaston was presumably aware of those numbers. So Henke stayed in for the first batter. But now, with the LH batters, Gaston sent for Jimmy Key. If you're going to do a double-switch, now is the time. There were two possible ways to do this:

Option 1. Olerud comes in to play 1b. Carter goes to either LF (replacing Maldonado) or RF (replacing Winfield). The pitcher takes the departed outfielder's place in the batting order, either 4th (if Winfield leaves) or 5th (if Maldonado leaves.)

This means that Olerud will lead off the 11th against Liebrandt. Over his first three seasons, Olerud didn't play all that much against LH - at that point in his career, he'd never faced Liebrandt (they wouldn't meet until 1993, when Liebrandt went to Texas.) Olerud had held his own against southpaws in his limited exposure to them (.268 with 9 HR in 254 at bats). In 1992, he hit .258/.393/.392 against them. His chances of doing something were certainly better than Key's, who had never batted in the major leagues (Game 4 had been in Toronto, with the DH in effect.)

Option 2. Sprague comes in to catch, batting 9th and leading off the next inning. Key comes into the 7th spot in the order. Sprague had made three appearances in the series, all as a pinch-hitter - he'd hit the dramatic Game 2 homer hitting for Duane Ward, batted for Olerud in Game 3 and received an intentional walk before Maldonado's game-winning hit, and flied out batting for Olerud in Game 5. On that last occasion, he'd stayed in the game at first base. While he was the team's backup catcher for this series, he'd caught just 15 games in the majors at this point in his career, and none in the last three weeks - and he'd shown very little aptitude for throwing out opposition base stealers. The Braves baserunners had been tormenting regular catcher Pat Borders through the entire series - they stole 15 bases (3 caught stealing) in the six games. In the 7th inning of this very game, Gaston had been willing to burn two pitchers to put a stop to it. He replaced Todd Stottlemyre with David Wells with two out and Otis Nixon on first in order to: a) give Borders a better chance of actually throwing out a base stealer, and b) get Deion Sanders out of the game. With Ron Gant pinch-hitting, Borders threw out Nixon stealing, and Wells was done for the night (.1 IP, no batters faced) and Ward took over for the 8th.

The first order of business, of course, was to make it through the bottom of the inning, which is what argues against bringing in Sprague to catch. But bringing in Olerud would improve the defense, at two spots - he was a better first baseman than Carter, who was a better outfielder than both Maldonado and the 41 year old version of Winfield.

But here's the thing. Once you get through the inning, Olerud leads off. And if something good happens, and a rally starts to form - maybe someone gets hit by a pitch, maybe someone knocks out a base hit - Jimmy Key is going to come up to bat in Winfield's spot with runners on base. There may be two outs by then. Ed Sprague will have to bat for him, and then there's no bench left at all. If you don't take the lead, you've got Eichhorn and Timlin to get you through the rest of the game. However long it goes on. And if any of your position players turns an ankle, you're totally screwed.

I suppose you could say that Gaston essentially chose to bite a bullet, get this regrettable at bat out of his way as soon as possible, and play a two out inning.

This stuff is lots of fun - how about the Braves in the bottom of the 11th, with runners on 1st and 3rd with none out, down by 2 runs in the last inning of the season if they don't tie the game, dropping down a sac bunt? The lead runner held at third, the pinch runner (John Smoltz) moved up to second. But really - was this any time for small ball? Of course, when Rafael Belliard is swinging the bat for you, there aren't all that many options...

Gaston pulled something equally head-scratching almost exactly a year later. In Game 4 of the 1993 series, with the Jays trailing by four runs, Tony Castillo led off the seventh inning. At that point in his career, Castillo had exactly one hit in 12 major league at bats. He struck out, and even after the next inning's fireworks, the opposing Phillies were still flabbergasted that Castillo had actually come to the plate. "They gave up", they muttered darkly, in bitter disbelief.

Castillo pitched the seventh inning and gave up another run as the Jays fell five runs behind; he then scooped up the W when the Jays exploded for six runs in the 8th inning. Castillo's spot came up again in the midst of it all - there was one out, two runs had scored to make it 14-11 Phillies, and the bases were loaded. This time Ed Sprague batted for Castillo and struck out. But Henderson followed with a two-run single and White followed that with a two-run triple...

Good times!
The Tao of Cito! | 35 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
CeeBee - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 10:10 AM EST (#180734) #
Memories.... thanks for the memories. :)  Sure is fun and interesting looking back.
Mick Doherty - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 10:22 AM EST (#180735) #
This is brilliant, Mags, but admittedly, with 16 years of hindsight -- do you really think there's even a remote chance that Gaston thought through all this on Game Day '92? He always struck me as a very effective, more instinctive manager, more Sparky Anderson than Tony LaRussa, but I was in Ohio and not following the Jays remotely closely at the time ...
Mike Green - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 10:23 AM EST (#180737) #
The strategic question for Cito was complicated by the fact that the Braves had Blauser (RH), Berryhill (switch who hits lefties slightly better), and Belliard (RH) due up in the 11th.  You might think that it would have been wiser to pinch-hit Olerud for Key leading off the 11th with the intention of bringing in Timlin to start the inning, bearing in mind the platoon advantages and Key's outing 2 days earlier. 

My inclination is that the better approach would have been either the double-switch if you were intending to keep Key in, or the pinch-hit (and bring on Timlin to start the 11th), but Cito's approach worked. It's definitely not clear cut.

Magpie - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 10:32 AM EST (#180739) #
Oddly enough, the choice I seem to like best is Key starting the inning against Pendleton, and batting eighth - Griffin at SS hitting 9th. Olerud and Sprague are still available should you need a pinch-hitter.

I dunno. Maybe those were hard line drives Pendleton hit off Key in Game 4...

I suspect Gaston was starting to think about not using all the bullets in his gun, in case he wanted to shoot himself later.. He was about to bring in his sixth pitcher of the night. Tabler, Bell, and Lee were already out of the game.

Magpie - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 10:38 AM EST (#180741) #
do you really think there's even a remote chance that Gaston thought through all this on Game Day '92?

Absolutely. For sure.

Hell, if I could...

I will say, from years of watching Gaston work, that I would wager that the thing he was thinking about (and trying to avoid) was the prospect of Key coming up to bat after Carter, in a key (oops!) situation.

That, and having the right pitcher on the mound for whichever Atlanta hitter was in the box..
Alex Obal - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 10:45 AM EST (#180742) #
Maybe, if Henke was a flyball pitcher (I have no idea), you could use a starting pitcher to play short for Pendleton's at-bat. Say Juan Guzman. Actually, Jack Morris would probably be ideal, since Guzman had 2 more days of rest than Morris and you'd need him if the game went 17+ innings.

Anyway. Morris comes in for Tabler and plays short. Pendleton bats. Then, you could double-switch in Key and Griffin in for Morris and Henke. This way you get Griffin to the 9-hole while still throwing a righty at Pendleton. You have your cake and eat it too unless Pendleton hits a ground ball to short. Then it gets thrown in your face. But Pendleton is a switch-hitter, so he'd be batting left, and therefore very unlikely to hit a groundball to short. Most groundballs are pulled. Although if Henke is a groundball pitcher, maybe Pendleton just hits right anyway, knowing Jack Morris is the shortstop...

Garbphlfurbk!! Paroxysm!!

This strategy is kind of insane, but nowhere near as insane as leaving Charlie Leibrandt in to face Winfield with the go-ahead runs on base and two out and Jeff Reardon warm in the pen with 3 days' rest...
Magpie - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 10:51 AM EST (#180744) #
Henke was indeed a flyball pitcher (high hard one and a killer forkball - it was all Ks and pop ups), although on this occasion he got Pendleton to ground out to the infield (first base, as it happened.)

I also think Gaston really, really didn't want to take Dave Winfield out of the game. Just on principle. And certainly not while Charlie Leibrandt was still around. At that point in his career, Winfield was 16-50 (.320) with 4 HR against Leibrandt.

Magpie - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 10:53 AM EST (#180745) #
Jeff Reardon warm in the pen with 3 days' rest...

After Games 2 and 3, Cox had kind of lost faith in Reardon. The fact that Toronto fans were cheering when they saw him warming up was kind of a giveaway. At this point in his career, he wasn't really Jeff Reardon anymore.
Alex Obal - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 11:08 AM EST (#180746) #
Makes sense. I still can't wrap my head around a manager letting "Game 6" Charlie Leibrandt face righty sluggers Joe Carter and Dave Winfield with the season on the line and two runners on and only one out and have that look like the conventional-wisdom play. This was only 15.5 years ago?! If Brian Tallet faced Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee in the World Series in that situation with a struggling Jeremy Accardo up in the pen I'd be slightly, uh, confused. Times change fast.

Clearly, what the Braves needed that year was a 12-man pitching staff.

Magpie - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 11:34 AM EST (#180747) #
"Game 6" Charlie Leibrandt

Poor Charlie. He started Game 2 for the 1985 Royals, and pitched just a brilliant game. But Dick Howser stayed with him a little too long - ahead 2-0, with two out and a leadoff double aboard, he gave up a single, a double, an intentional walk, another double and the Cards had a 4-2 win. Then he started Game 6 for the 1985 Royals, and pitched another brilliant game. And Dick Howser stayed with him a little too long and Brian Harper (the future Twins catcher) broke up a scoreless tie with a pinch-hit single in the eighth inning. (Dane Iorg and Don Denkinger got him off the hook in the bottom of the inning. (And where was Quisenbery, cried Royals fans, in a voice still ringing down through the years.)

In 1991 Leibrandt won 15 games for the Braves. He started and lost the series opener. They brought him out from the pen to pitch the 11th inning of Game 6. Kirby Puckett hit a lead off with a home run, game over.

He won 15 games for the 1992 Braves, too... Didn't get into the World Series until the 10th inning of Game 6.

Poor Charlie. Pitched in 5 World Series games, took the loss in 4 of them. And very nearly took the loss in all 5.
jeff mcl - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 11:41 AM EST (#180748) #
It's stuff like this that got BB notice from the Wall Street Journal:

THEY'VE GOT GAME
  More and more independent baseball Web sites are catching the attention of baseball front offices with their thoughtful, reasoned analysis. Below are a few of the most popular. -- Darren Everson
 Batter's Box: This Toronto Blue Jays fan site is diverse and well-mannered. It recently carried a 2,700-word analysis of earned-run averages by catcher, and it has a lengthy list of ground rules regarding posts (no profanity or insults toward players or front-office employees).


Just a snippet from the article in full:

In recent years, there has been a proliferation of independent team-centric Web sites where partisan fans -- some of whom are mathematicians or scientists with Ph.D.s -- share their own enlightened statistical research and scouting analyses. Teams haven't just taken notice -- they are looking for ways to leverage all this brainpower.

Baseball is the latest business to take tentative steps toward tapping into a concept known as "the wisdom of crowds" (the title of a James Surowiecki book), the idea that a group can make some judgments better than an individual. Industries from computer programming to drug making have been turning to the opinions of skilled amateur observers and open "prediction markets" to help with everything from designing software to deciding where to mine for gold. Hewlett-Packard
Co., for example, asks its employees to predict the firm's revenue and profit as a supplement to its own forecasts.

Of the major American sports, baseball stands to benefit most from this strategy. Unlike pro basketball and football teams, which draft only a handful of players, baseball clubs will draft some 1,500 players each year out of a pool of tens of thousands. The pool encompasses not just high-school phenoms and big-college stars but also players from smaller schools. Albert Pujols, the Cardinals' All-Star first baseman, was the 402nd overall pick in the 1999 draft out of Metropolitan Community College-Maple Woods (Mo.).

Since the emergence of baseball analyst Bill James in the early 1980s, baseball has had a strong tradition of populist research. For many years, teams largely ignored the work of these unpaid fans. But lately, they have are starting to acknowledge it and, in some cases, use it to help the team win.



Magpie - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 11:52 AM EST (#180749) #
recently carried a 2,700-word analysis of earned-run averages by catcher

They mentioned that? All the heavy lifting we've done here and they mentioned that? (I knocked it off in a few hours, a random response to something I read about Brian McCann.)

Grumble. Well, there's only one thing worse than being talked about...
ChicagoJaysFan - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 11:59 AM EST (#180750) #
 Batter's Box: This Toronto Blue Jays fan site is diverse and well-mannered.

The well-mannered part is what I'm most impressed with and what brings me back.
CeeBee - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 12:33 PM EST (#180752) #
Diverse, well-mannered and extremely informative..... thats what brings me back every day :)
jeff mcl - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 12:51 PM EST (#180754) #
This bit I found fascinating:

Last season, Dave Cameron, co-founder of U.S.S. Mariner, the Web site of choice for obsessive fans of the Seattle Mariners, said he had grown tired of watching one of the team's starting pitchers, Felix Hernandez, get bombed by opposing hitters early in games. He did a pitch-by-pitch analysis of Mr. Hernandez's starts, which revealed an overreliance on fastballs. Mr. Cameron then wrote an open letter to the Mariners' pitching coach, urging him to tell Mr. Hernandez to throw more off-speed pitches in the early innings.

The pitching coach showed the letter to Mr. Hernandez, who made the suggested adjustment and shut out the Oakland Athletics for eight innings in a subsequent start.

Wow.

HollywoodHartman - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 01:53 PM EST (#180757) #
So who do we write to to make sure Vernon lays off the fastballs over the letters?
jeff mcl - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 02:40 PM EST (#180758) #
Gary Denbo.

CC: John Gibbons.

DiscoDave - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 02:42 PM EST (#180759) #
What about the low and away crap he loves to whiff at?  Or maybe not...

MatO - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 04:13 PM EST (#180762) #

What about the low and away crap he loves to whiff at?

He only chases those when he's ahead 2-0 in the count!

HollywoodHartman - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 04:34 PM EST (#180763) #

To the people who worry about the Jays Grapefruit league league record.

2 of the bottom 3 teams in the Grapefruit standings last year were Philly and the Mets. Meanwhile Houston and St. Louis were both in the top 3.

In 06, Cinci and Florida were 1 and 2, while the local 9 went just 12-18.

So I know it's frustrating to see the Jays doing so poorly, but just rememberm until March 31 the only news that should be concerning to anyone is injury news.

DiscoDave - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 04:54 PM EST (#180764) #
He only chases those when he's ahead 2-0 in the count!

I am all for being aggressive early in the count, but common Vernon.  Pick an area and a pitch to look for and unless you get it lay off.  I am so sick of those feeble swings at the low and away junk as well.
halejon - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 05:32 PM EST (#180766) #
Now that you mention it...here's all the 2007 pitches Vernon swung at for strikes when ahead in the count. Not so bad! I think Vernon looked silly a lot last year because he couldn't do anything with his pitch when he got it, and so ended up being toyed with in pitcher's counts more often. He's never going to be that guy with a great eye working the counts or laying off outside sliders once gets to two strikes- but when he's jumping all over first pitch fastballs and putting them in the seats you tend not to notice as much.
CaramonLS - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 05:39 PM EST (#180767) #

Does anyone have Denbo's Email?  Better fire this one off pre-emptively:

---------

To Vernon Wells:

Lay off the High Fastballs at the letters and the Soft stuff low-and-away.

Signed,

Batter's Box.

Mick Doherty - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 05:41 PM EST (#180768) #

HH, ironically, all six of your examples are NL teams!

The point still holds, of course. Just thought that was kinda funny.

ANationalAcrobat - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 05:58 PM EST (#180769) #
Your comment about high fastballs immediately brought me back to Vernon's 3 HR game in 2006, against Josh Beckett. Here is the video. Three high fastballs.

It's interesting to note that this game is the one where Vernon's shoulder troubles began, as revealed in this article.

It's equally interesting to note that Vernon led the AL in IF/F (Infield flies/fly) last season, which I'm nearly certain is a clear indication that he is swinging at (and missing) way too many high pitches. Source.

vw_fan17 - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 07:08 PM EST (#180770) #
The well-mannered part is what I'm most impressed with and what brings me back.

Whatever happened to "Winfield wants noise"? :-)

VW
Jimbag - Friday, March 07 2008 @ 11:35 PM EST (#180773) #
I'm not surprised that this site in particular was mentioned in the article - there are some incredibly intelligent people who post here, which is why I spend a lot more time reading than I do replying. Not being the most statistically-minded person in the crowd, I do find it oddly thrilling when my non-scientific observations are fleshed out with a bit of math...and also aggravating when they're proven (beyond a shadow of a doubt) to be patently false.

Back to the origins of the thread, though - I also heard most of game 4 of the 94 WS on the radio. When the Jays were getting pummeled early, my girlfriend (at the time) started moaning about missing Beverly Hills 90210 while I wasted my time watching an obvious blowout. She got the TV, I moved upstairs to listen on the radio...at the time I was mad that I missed seeing the comeback, but now it's one of my best memories of being a Jays fan. Sort of like when my dad told me about hearing the Leafs on the radio during the 40's - you have to rely on your imagination to picture the situation, and the games take on an even greater importance because you're seeing the action in your mind, and not just looking at it with your eyes.

That said, I still dumped her shortly afterwards because I was sore at not having seen the game.

JohnL - Saturday, March 08 2008 @ 02:17 PM EST (#180783) #
I also heard most of game 4 of the 94 WS

Odd, because for some reason, I couldn't seem to get any of the 94 World Series on radio OR TV...
Jimbag - Saturday, March 08 2008 @ 11:40 PM EST (#180798) #
See? I'm just not that bright.
MD2B - Sunday, March 09 2008 @ 12:13 AM EST (#180801) #

Does anyone else think that Lester Freeman looks like an aged Sam Mitchell?

Shane - Sunday, March 09 2008 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#180805) #
Anyone watching the Jays/Phillies game on the internet this afternoon?
VBF - Sunday, March 09 2008 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#180806) #

We can watch it? Where?

It seems that the mlb.com link to the FAN is broadcasting the Raps game, even though I think Howarth and Ashby are calling the game. Hopefully they'll fix the error.

ramone - Sunday, March 09 2008 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#180807) #
I've got the Philies broadcast from MLB.com.  Sadly they too mention how gritty a player Eckstein is.  It's only spring training and I've heard that reference far too much.
CeeBee - Sunday, March 09 2008 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#180809) #
Some players are talented, some are smart, some are gritty..... oh well, I prefer to let what they do on the field be my guide.
MattAtBat - Sunday, March 09 2008 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#180811) #
Would someone with a Baseball Prospectus membership check out this article and post it here (or more legally) summarize it for us?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7215

I'm curious to see what the BP people say (but not $39.95/year curious) about the upcoming season.

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