The Jays won both games of an unusual double header - it was the first time the Jays had completed an postponed game since 1996. The two wins, combined with a Rays loss, brought the Jays 1.5 games closer to the playoff race, though they are still 8.5 out.
Recently I saw some Vegas odds that put the Jays payoff on winning the pennant at 100 to 1. I'd guess that in reality its closer to 50 to 1, though the difference between 1% and 2% is certainly small. I of course bring this up as a framing device, as an excuse to talk about the Jays playoff chances. Whatever might be said about the season so far, the Jays playoff chances are not zero, though they definitely aren't good. ESPN now includes a playoff odds calculator with their standings, which gives the Jays a 6.7% chance of making the playoffs.
It has become the journalistic truism of the day that teams aren't making deadline deals because they think they can pull a Colorado and storm into the playoffs. I would doubt that many GMs other than Ed Wade believe this though (their public answers may tell another story, I'm sure). With this being said, the Jays certainly could string a bunch of wins together and make the AL East even more exciting, along with the Yankees, who are quietly storming the gates as well. If it's going to happen at any time, now would probably be the best opportunity - the Jays play three against the woeful Mariners, the scuffling Rays, and the admittedly resurgent Rangers, then four against the struggling A's, followed by three against Cleveland and four against Detroit. These opponents are not all cupcakes, to be sure, but this twenty game stretch, of which thirteen are at home, present the Jays their best chance at making a run into relevancy. I'm not saying it will happen, of course, but it's probably more likely now then in the subsequent set of games (Boston, Yankees, Boston, Tampa, Yankees).
As a team, the Jays have gotten better offensively and worse pitching wise as the season has , or so it seems. The callup of Adam Lind, long overdue, turns a position of weakness into one of strength. The possible return of Aaron Hill, and the eventual return of Vernon Wells promise to improve the offense as well. I won't even attempt to speculate at the difference Gaston and Co. are making, but Rios seems to be on the right track at least.
The staff, other than Halladay, is a bit of a question mark. I see no reason why Marcum won't return to form, however - presumably fatigue won't be such a huge factor now. Burnett is pitching better as well, and McGowan may eventually return. Jesse Litsch has fallen back to earth unfortunately, though the Jays at least have options for the back end of the rotation. The bullpen's turned it on again as well, which is nice. There are certainly several pieces of a good ballclub here, though putting it together will be the difficult part.
I've personally given up on the Jays in disgust three or four times this season, and there's no (real) reason not to think that they won't disappoint again. For the moment, at least, my quiet optimism will endure. Unless they don't sweep the Mariners, because that team is really awful.
Recently I saw some Vegas odds that put the Jays payoff on winning the pennant at 100 to 1. I'd guess that in reality its closer to 50 to 1, though the difference between 1% and 2% is certainly small. I of course bring this up as a framing device, as an excuse to talk about the Jays playoff chances. Whatever might be said about the season so far, the Jays playoff chances are not zero, though they definitely aren't good. ESPN now includes a playoff odds calculator with their standings, which gives the Jays a 6.7% chance of making the playoffs.
It has become the journalistic truism of the day that teams aren't making deadline deals because they think they can pull a Colorado and storm into the playoffs. I would doubt that many GMs other than Ed Wade believe this though (their public answers may tell another story, I'm sure). With this being said, the Jays certainly could string a bunch of wins together and make the AL East even more exciting, along with the Yankees, who are quietly storming the gates as well. If it's going to happen at any time, now would probably be the best opportunity - the Jays play three against the woeful Mariners, the scuffling Rays, and the admittedly resurgent Rangers, then four against the struggling A's, followed by three against Cleveland and four against Detroit. These opponents are not all cupcakes, to be sure, but this twenty game stretch, of which thirteen are at home, present the Jays their best chance at making a run into relevancy. I'm not saying it will happen, of course, but it's probably more likely now then in the subsequent set of games (Boston, Yankees, Boston, Tampa, Yankees).
As a team, the Jays have gotten better offensively and worse pitching wise as the season has , or so it seems. The callup of Adam Lind, long overdue, turns a position of weakness into one of strength. The possible return of Aaron Hill, and the eventual return of Vernon Wells promise to improve the offense as well. I won't even attempt to speculate at the difference Gaston and Co. are making, but Rios seems to be on the right track at least.
The staff, other than Halladay, is a bit of a question mark. I see no reason why Marcum won't return to form, however - presumably fatigue won't be such a huge factor now. Burnett is pitching better as well, and McGowan may eventually return. Jesse Litsch has fallen back to earth unfortunately, though the Jays at least have options for the back end of the rotation. The bullpen's turned it on again as well, which is nice. There are certainly several pieces of a good ballclub here, though putting it together will be the difficult part.
I've personally given up on the Jays in disgust three or four times this season, and there's no (real) reason not to think that they won't disappoint again. For the moment, at least, my quiet optimism will endure. Unless they don't sweep the Mariners, because that team is really awful.
