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After the game, the Blue Jays designated Matt Stairs for assignment and traded him to the Phillies.  He's being replaced by Travis Snider.

Knock me over with a feather. The future begins now.


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danjulien - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 02:58 AM EDT (#191492) #
It should make for an interesting end to the season with Lind and Snider up.  I can't wait to see Snider play, a good move by JP to get something for Stairs and hopefully get out of that second year they gave him (no report yet on money involved).  Let's see what he does with the middle infield situation and Anaheim, I'm not sure any of the infielders would be able to pass through waivers all the way to Anaheim except Eckstein and he's the only one who could potentially bring compensatory draft picks in the off-season..

To my knowledge, there are now 4 spots on the 40 man with 2 guys on the 60 day DL?  Who has to be protected this off-season or potentially lost to Rule V?
The_Game - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 04:51 AM EDT (#191494) #

"Nothing would've been better than to go down Yonge St.," Stairs said, "celebrating with the guys I became really close with over the last year and a half. To me, the greatest city in the world is Toronto and I'm not saying that because I played there or because I'm Canadian. It's a city I've always loved."

Stairs is awesome, I hope he does well for Philly.

 

China fan - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 05:48 AM EDT (#191495) #
Stairs is an awesome dude, but unfortunately his decline in 2008 was one of the reasons for the Jays' offensive woes this season.   If his 2008 had been similar to his 2007, the team's lineup would be in much better shape this year.  But at his age, he is unlikely to repeat 2007 again.  So it made sense to cut him loose, especially with young prospects soon ready to replace him.
Recent games have confirmed that the Jays will continue to be a strong pitching team in 2009 -- with probably one of the best and deepest pitching staffs in the league again.  The bullpen will remain strong, and the rotation will be strong and deep with Halladay, Marcum, Litsch, and then some combination of Purcey, McGowan, Cecil, Janssen, Parrish, Richmond and Ricky Romero.  It's the offence that will need work in 2009, and so it makes sense to see if Snider can be a useful piece of the puzzle next year.
As for Snider -- I was a lone voice in the wilderness when I suggested on Aug. 14 that he should be called up for September.  Bauxites scoffed at the idea, but I think it makes sense.  Snider has been hitting at every level.  Why not give him a taste of the majors, to accelerate his adjustment next season?   As for the service-time issue:  Ricciardi has shown this season (with his handling of Marcum and Litsch, for example) that he can control service time and minimize future costs.  He still has the option of trying to lock up Snider to a long-term contract next year.  If a call-up in late August can accelerate Snider's major-league adjustment and hasten the moment when he will become a top player on the Jays, I think that's more important than service-time complexities (which can be managed anyway). 
But let's also be clear about what it means: by calling up Snider, it's obvious that the Jays are giving up on 2008 and preparing for 2009, regardless of all the "We're not out of it yet" rhetoric that we still hear from the team.   And the presence of Snider will create another reason for fans to buy tickets for the otherwise meaningless games for the rest of this season.

The_Game - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 06:31 AM EDT (#191496) #

Oh Stairs definitely sucked, but it's not his fault the team tried to replace Frank Thomas with him for the entire season.

Thomas - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 06:51 AM EDT (#191497) #
I think most people's objections to Snider being called up came from the fear that the Jays would be rushing him more than simple service time considerations. At least mine certainly did. The thought was that if Snider came up and struggled mightily (which is certainly possible) it might set back his development as opposed to accelerating it. That scenario could occur, given his age and the fact he hasn't set Triple-A on fire, but we could also see Snider's struggle in the way that Pedroia did at the end of 2006 and use the offseason to make adjustments for the following year. I'm not sure anybody knows which scenario is more probable, but the fear that it may be a case of "too much, too soon" was a main factor in my hesitancy to lobby for Snider's promotion.

I'd have handled Snider much the same way that Tampa handled Longoria. Longoria (and other prospects handled similarly like Braun) didn't need a September to adjust to hitting in the majors, so I'm not sure why some people assume that Snider does. At the beginning of the year I'd have been very pleased if you told me Snider was holding his own in Triple-A in late August and would have left it at that. There's no reason to assume this isn't the case, but I hope JP is making this move because he thinks it is best for Snider and not so he can point to Snider's September in the offseason as a further point in his favour if there's an offseason review of his job status.

What this move does seem to indicate is that Snider's clearly in the teams 2009 plans (if there was any doubt). I'm looking forward to seeing him play, but am sorry to see Stairs go, as he's someone who loved the sport, the team, the city and gave the Jays a heck of a year in 2007.
TamRa - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 07:03 AM EDT (#191498) #



danjulien
To my knowledge, there are now 4 spots on the 40 man with 2 guys on the 60 day DL?  Who has to be protected this off-season or potentially lost to Rule V?

players 19 and over when signed in 2005, 19 and under have another year.

In practical terms, looking back at who we drafted in 2005 and 2004:

Rickey Romero and Robert Ray. but calling up Snider meant he had to be added too and the roster on the official site still stands at 38.


China fan
But let's also be clear about what it means: by calling up Snider, it's obvious that the Jays are giving up on 2008 and preparing for 2009, regardless of all the "We're not out of it yet" rhetoric that we still hear from the team.   And the presence of Snider will create another reason for fans to buy tickets for the otherwise meaningless games for the rest of this season.

Well, I don't think we are still in it but, in practical terms, all snider has to do to "break even" on that consideration is hit as well as Staris was hitting - that's not a huge challange.

The_Game - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 07:13 AM EDT (#191499) #

Just taking a full look at Snider's numbers during the 2008 season (A, AA, AAA levels)...he really doesn't appear to be ready enough to be making this kind of jump. I really hope JP knows what he's doing.

scottt - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 07:43 AM EDT (#191501) #
Wow. I didn't see that one coming at all when they benched Stairs last night.

This is going to be interesting.

I'm curious to see what they get for Stairs.



brent - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 08:06 AM EDT (#191502) #
I think it will be better for Snider to see MLB pitching after a full season (which he just had) rather than trying to catch up in spring training. I had thought they were going to wait for him to push the club next year to let him take over (sometime during the season). JP sure held his cards tight on last Wednesdays talk with Wilner.
timpinder - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 08:12 AM EDT (#191503) #
My guess is that the Phillies will be picking up all of Stairs' contract since it was heavily front-loaded and the Jays have already paid for most of it.  As for Snider, this is an early and aggressive promotion.  I'm not sure if he's ready, but if he is and quickly becomes the hitter we hope, my fear is that if the Jays don't "Longoria" him they'll lose him to free agency just before he hits his prime.
John Northey - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 08:21 AM EDT (#191504) #
Wow.  From a 'win in the next couple of years' area this is a very good move.  This will help the Jays assess if Snider is ready for 2009 and help in the decision of sign or don't sign a DH.  If Snider continues to chew up pitching all month then no DH for 2009, if he doesn't then you sign a guy.

Snider in AAA: 344/386/516, AA: 262/357/461, A+: 279/333/557 all in 2008.  2007 was A-: 313/377/525, 2006 was rookie ball: 325/412/567

Reaching the majors by his age 20 season.  Vernon Wells followed the same path.
Wells age 20: AAA: 310/360/481, AA: 340/407/519, A+: 343/402/543 followed by 88 AB's in the majors going 261/293/352 64 OPS+.  Wells had September call-ups each of the next two years getting a total of 98 more AB's before JP came in and put him in CF forevermore.  He wasn't an above average ML'er until 2003 though at age 24 (his top quality defense as a kid would've made him average at 23).

So, the big question now is will Snider get the Wells treatment with September call ups for a few more years or will he be given a full shot in 2009?  If he makes it as a ML'er in 2009 then we might have a guy with the ability to be the first HOF'er developed by the Jays (depending on Delgado) as making the majors to stay as a regular at 21 is a very, very hard thing to do.
Pistol - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 08:43 AM EDT (#191505) #
my fear is that if the Jays don't "Longoria" him they'll lose him to free agency just before he hits his prime

It's 6 years until free agency.  It's a little to early to have fear about losing a player, especially when the Jays haven't had a history of it.
ComebyDeanChance - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#191506) #
Oh Stairs definitely sucked, but it's not his fault the team tried to replace Frank Thomas with him for the entire season.
First off, I don't see what releasing Thomas had to do with Stairs' performance. The guy's old and in decline.
Second, as bad as Stairs has been Thomas has been worse. HIs line since the break looks like this .197/.307/.241. He's also closing in on the pa's that would have vested his option and if he were here that would be the focus. JP's not done a lot of smart things, but getting rid of Thomas was one of them.
Kieran - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#191507) #
I'm also super excited about this callup (given that that's really all there is to be excited about now). However, I think it's extremely premature to be discussing Snider's HOF chances before he's ever had an AB, don't you?

As for 2009, I really think the team will have to replace AJ, should he leave. Remember, Litsch is still a wildcard, given his low strikeout rates and "hittability". McGowan and Janssen are coming off injury, and if you go back to 2006, Casey wasn't exactly lights-out as a starter. Purcey is still battling control/command issues, and Parrish was picked up off the scrap heap.

I'm confident in Halladay, Marcum and Litsch as #5. But the team will still need another mid-range starter. I'd love Derek Lowe, but not sure if he's affordable.
Barry Bonnell - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 08:59 AM EDT (#191508) #

JP's not done a lot of smart things, but getting rid of Thomas was one of them

Of course he did sign him in the first place.

rtcaino - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 08:59 AM EDT (#191509) #

Question: Since he was called up now, the rest of the season counts as his service time? But if he was called up after rosters expanded, as a september call up, it would not have?

Really, I see no problem with having him up in the Majors to get acclimatized to the scene and spend sometime with Cito and Lind. The Sky Chiefs are finished soon if I am not mistaken. So I do not see how him soaking up the Major League experience is any worse than him soaking up sun somewhere.

Also, as a business decision, I for one am a lot more likely to go watch a game now!... If I knew that he would be playing that is. 

whiterasta80 - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#191511) #

Derek Lowe will definately be affordable to us given the other pitchers on the market, I'd only be chasing him if we spend 10 million+ on a big bat of some sort. 

If Snider sticks (I doubt it, but its possible), then we can blow our wad on a SS and a pitcher. Personally I've always liked Ben Sheets and think we should take a run at him.  Of course it'd be on the assumption that he's only going to give us about 22 starts, but they'd be mostly quality ones.

As for Snider, I still think its early.  He should have stayed at AAA until this time next year.  Let his OPS come back up over .900 and cut the strikeouts down. We do risk setting him back, and we have started his clock for now apparent reason IMO. That said, its entirely possible that he hits major league pitching just like he did in the minors- at which point... Hello DH.

Also, this is an organization that doesn't hand out huge signing bonuses to its prospects- we look for signability.  An underrated part of this move is that it'll show top prospects that they can get to the majors quickly under our watch.  As a high schooler Snider signed almost immediately, got a half season under his belt before many of his peers ever swung a minor league bat.  He is aggressively promoted based on his performance and hits the majors at 20.  That might increase "signability" of the next 18 year old kid we have to negotiate with.

I'm still against this move (and it reeks of JP trying to point out that he's got the ship moving forward), but I can't deny that, if its successful and Snider sticks, it could have a real positive impact on this team in a number of areas.

PeteMoss - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#191512) #
JP's been pretty adament about this not happening, I wonder if this came from above or if the Stairs trade offer was a surprise. 
Squiggy - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#191513) #
Although JP was adamant about not calling up Snider, I would respectfully submit that he was lying. Even if the Stairs trade proposal was a surprise, why not call up Buck Coats if JP is truly opposed to calling up Snider.  I cannot see Godfrey et al. sticking their noses in on this either. Really, the benefit of calling Snider up now  is negligible at best.
Moe - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#191514) #
Think about it this way:
JP might fear for his job, but he has a couple of things going for him, e.g. better performance since Cito took over and fairly decent attendance so far. If Snider does well, he can point (a) to his respectable recent draft record (Hill, Snider, JPA, Cecil -- even R. Romero may not be a total bust) and (b) say that with Snider up, the biggest hole has been filled.

John Northey - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#191515) #
JP not being fully honest with the media/fans?  Say it ain't so!  :)

The HOF comment was more to point out how rare it is for a kid at 20 to reach and stick.  If a kid in his age 21 season is a ML regular his odds of being a superstar caliber are far higher than if he was 23.  I remember reading a Bill James piece on it and the spread is amazing.  Teenagers who achieve it are even more likely (see Griffey Jr for a recent example - his career is a disappointment despite having over 600 HR's, OPS+ of 138 lifetime, 13 AllStar games, and an MVP among other things, A-Rod became a regular at 20 after callups at 18 and 19). 

Check the leaders at age 21 sheet on Baseball-Reference for a really good idea of how 21 year old success translates.  Top 10 in games played has Pujols, Eddie Murray, Cal Ripken, Rickey Henderson and Roberto Alomar among its HOF locks with others like Andruw Jones who are possible HOF'ers still (1700 hits, 371 HR, 10 gold gloves at age 31 - he may have had 2 horrid years but any kind of comeback and he'll get to 2k hits and 400 HR which could get him in with the defense).  An early start is a sign of a star.  Sometimes flops show up but even they build up nice totals (Aurelio Rodriguez had an OPS+ of 76 lifetime but still had 1570 hits while at third base, Ruben Sierra had 2k hits and 300 HR.

Now, is Snider ready?  Don't know.  I really, really hope he is though as if he is then we're in for a treat over the next 6 years and hopefully more (if he is a star and leaves at least we'll have known him when).
greenfrog - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#191520) #
My first response is that this is mostly about Ricciardi creating more spin/distraction. It's a way of making him look good during another non-contending season by showcasing his top prospect (although I think trading Stairs made sense).

Even if Snider tears it up for a month, it doesn't necessarily mean he's ready to contribute in 2009. Lind had a fabulous September in 2006 (367/415/600), followed by a dismal 2007 at the big-league level (238/278/400). He's only recently come into his own.

On the other hand, I don't think it will impact Snider's development in a significantly negative way. He's been outstanding at every level and is already very mature. I'm guessing he can handle it.
FisherCat - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#191521) #

I'm torn on the Snider promotion.  Having seen him play several times this year, I'm excited to see what he can do in this brief time.  However I do believe the advantages outweigh the drawbacks.  Considering the kid has had 3 or 4 very close friends and relatives pass away within the past 2 years, I highly doubt going hitless in the majors over the 50 or so AB's he's likely to get here is going to demoralize him!  That being said, whatever flaws that may occur during the month are going to be addressed with him by Cito, Gene, et al and then worked on by him in the AFL.  So my thought is, 'Why Not?'

On a lighter note, if I told you back on Opening Day that by the end of August:

  • The Red Sox would be in 2nd place
  • The Yankees would be in 3rd place
  • Both Halladay AND Burnett would have 16 wins each
  • The Jays' bullpen AND team ERA would be top 3 in the AL.

How excited would you be?  Wouldn't you think that it'd be a virtual lock that the team holding down first would be the Jays?  Sure sums up the 2008 season huh...

whiterasta80 - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#191522) #

Good points John... Time will tell if he can stick, but even if he doesn't stick until this time next year he'll still only be 21. 

Cito's certainly spoke like a man who will give Snider plenty of playing time- so at the very least we won't be left doubting whether or not he's ready going into next season.

Thomas - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#191524) #
If Snider continues to chew up pitching all month then no DH for 2009, if he doesn't then you sign a guy.

I'm not sure if you meant this as literally as it sounds, but that's a far too simplistic way to look at things.
John Northey - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#191525) #
No matter how many feel about Cito with kids he does tend to give them a chance.  From Junior Felix in '89, to John Olerud in '90, to Mark Whiten in '91 (pre trade), to Jeff Kent in '92, to Ed Sprague in '93, to Carlos Delgado at the start of '94 (when Ash started making decisions thus Delgado getting tons of AAA time) he would give a kid a shot.  I was suprised checking it to see he did put a kid into the lineup everday each season during the contending years although two of them were traded from under him and in '94 he lost Delgado quickly (can't recall Cito complaining about Delgado so I wonder if it was an Ash decision as he was being handed the reigns by Gillick piecemeal that season).

Note: 1995 Alex Gonzalez and Shawn Green, '96 Delgado left in along with Tomas Perez, '97 saw the trade for Cruz Jr but he was already established by that point of his rookie season.  Every season Cito ran the team he had a rookie get tons of playing time at the start of the season or as soon as he could get the kid in there.  Lind this year was given his second chance the minute Cito came in, now Snider is getting a shot. 

Looking back one wonders how Cito got that rep of being anti-young guys.  I guess platooning Olerud and Green is what caused it and I suspect the Toronto media blamed Cito for Delgado going down to AAA too although that one smells of Ash given what I noticed about his forcing kids to stay in AAA for a long time even after Cito was gone.

Mick Doherty - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#191526) #

I've always liked Ben Sheets and think we should take a run at him.  Of course it'd be on the assumption that he's only going to give us about 22 starts, but they'd be mostly quality ones.

Sheets has only made less than 24 starts in a seeason once in his eight-year career and he's already crossed that plateau this year in August. Not sure why health would be a concern. But I wouldn't get hopes up -- the Yanks, Sawx or Dodgers (or someone) is going to throw $18M at Sheets and he'll be the biggest signing of the offseason.

John Northey, on your comment about 21-year-olds and the HOF -- bang on right. I haven't done an all-age-21 Hall of Names team yet, but we did do one for Age 19 and no less than 11 of the 25 on the roster are enshrined (or will be shortly).

 

Flex - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#191527) #
Pretty amazing for Snider that his first taste of the big leagues comes in Yankee Stadium.

John Northey - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#191528) #
Snider's results in September I think will be a very big factor for JP on deciding what to do about the DH slot in 2009.  Might be simplistic but sometimes the simple answer is the right one.

If Snider flops around like a fish out of water and hits for an OPS+ of 80 or less I'd bet on a full time DH being signed who would block Snider for 2 years (decent guy won't sign for fewer) unless a trade is made.  If Snider hits well (90-110 OPS+) then a platoon mate will probably be brought in or a guy the Jays would be able to get in on a one year deal.  If Snider hits the ball so hard it hurts (120+ OPS+) then look for JP to chase after other positions in the winter with DH/4th outfielder being a AAAA guy for injury insurance. 

Other factors will be how he hits vs good pitching in key games vs Boston, NY, Tampa, plus playoff contenders Minnesota & Chicago.  If Baltimore is the only team he cranks it out against, or just them and NYY's AAA callups then AAA is his 2009 future.  The Jays will play 6 vs Baltimore (the irrelevant part), 6 vs the Yankees (this weekend matters, the 3 in the final week will be AAA vs AAA), 7 vs Boston/7 vs Minnesota-ChiSox  (contenders fighting for a playoff slot), and 3 vs Tampa (playoff bound - how weird to say that).  That means of the Jays final 29 games there will be just 9 that are secondary and 20 that will be against teams fighting for their playoff lives.  Those 20 will tell the tale about a lot of guys on this team, especially Lind and Snider.  If they hit well in those 20 then the Jays will be counting on both of them in 2009.  If they don't then look for a right handed power hitter to be brought in (hmmm... Manny is available).

Thomas - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#191530) #
I disagree. I'm not trying to say that these games will be irrelevant for Snider, but I don't think JP can or should use them as a "very big" factor in his 2009 plans. At this point, JP should know what he wants to do with the lineup spot in 2009, whether it be Snider, a platoon, a free agent or what. He has two years worth of minor league stats to go on from Snider, plus all sorts of coaching evaluations. Given future projections supplemented by scouting reports he should have an idea of what he would expect Snider to do in the majors in 2009 and also incorporate whether he thinks Snider will learn more in the minors or being on a major league roster.

If you're talking about 20 games that 'matter' we are maybe talking 60-70 at bats, assuming Snider plays every three out of four games. Good GMs don't let 60-70 at-bats play a "very big" role in their personnel decisions for the coming year. I alluded to Dustin Pedroia above. He came up in 2006 and went .191/.258/.303 in 89 at-bats for an OPS+ of 42. Theo didn't let that colour their evaluations of Pedroia and he's posted an OPS+ of 112 and 117 over the past two seasons and become one of the best second basemen in the AL. I'm sure one can find similar examples with other players who struggled a bit in a short debut and went on to become strong contributors in the following year.

JP should already know what his plans are for Snider in 2009 and only a shock performance either way should change that in any meaningful way. If JP is as dependent on these 60 at-bats for evaluating Snider as you think, then I'm in complete disagreement.
Moe - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#191532) #
If Snider is the next big thing, I'm sure the Jays don't want him to become a FA earlier just because he played in Sept 08. This means that Snider will have to stay in AAA until mid/ end May before they can call him up for good. But that means he can't figure into next year's plans that prominently. Of course, JP might not care that he becomes a FA early, because in 5 years, most likely, he won't be the GM anymore.
Impossibles - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#191533) #
Has anybody heard anything on who we would be getting from the Phillies?
ayjackson - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#191534) #

I think that JP will look to bring in a OF/DH type slugging bat this offseason.  If Snider rakes this month, I think he'll focus on a right-handed bat to take AB's away from Snider, Lind and Overbay.  If Snider struggles, JP may not show any preference to the handedness of the acquisition.  I think that's the only manner in which Snider's performance may affect offseason plans.

On an aside, I'd really like to see David Smith up here next month.  As far as older prospects that profile as good defensive fourth outfielders go, I much prefer Smith (27) to Coats (26).  Coats has the unfortunate advantage of a spot on the 40-man roster, but Smiths going to need a spot by December anyway.

Mylegacy - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#191535) #

JP and McCain are doing the same thing.

JP sees Tampa beating us 2 of 3 sees our mostly non-existant chance to even catch the Yanks slowly going down the toilet and in desperation he brings up Snider. Snider is GOING TO BE a star. No question. Snider is GOING TO HIT 40 to 50 homers a year. BUT - Snider is still a kid. We're going to be using some of his PRECIOUS 6 year time clock so JP can get a few extra fans in seats to save his job. By the time Snider is 26 or 27 and goes to the Yanks - JP won't care - he'll be working for Beane as his bat boy. At 28 -29 Snider will be an MVP candidate both years!

McCain is doing the same thing. After seeing a juggernaught launched at Denver last night, knowing he is going to be eaten alive he picks Sarah Palin the Gov of Alaska. A real cute sweety who says every night "There's no place like Nome." Alaska is VERY convervative, she is the DARLING of the Alaskan Repubs. However, the senior Gov for Alaska Ted Stevens is being investigated for corruption going back years. Big corruption. He'll go down. Sarah is a LAUGHING stock because she had the Police Commissioner FIRED because he wouldn't fire a Cop that gave her a ticket. She is a joke.

Bringing up Snider is a PLOY to get away from JP's failures. Nominating Sarah is a PLOY to desperately try and find a way to avoid a speeding train. Neither move is reasonable, both moves stink to the heavens.

Good grief Charley Brown!

China fan - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#191536) #
I have to respectfully say that I disagree with the McCain analogy.   McCain is not desperate at all.   He's been virtually tied with Obama in the polls for the past several weeks -- which is far better than many analysts had expected.  Most analysts predict that Obama won't get a huge bounce in the polls from the convention -- in fact neither candidate will get a huge bounce from their conventions.   The vice-presidential choices are interesting, but traditionally the VP does not determine the success of the ticket in any substantial way.  The VP is mainly window-dressing, and might help the candidate in one or two states.   McCain would like to solidify his appeal to the independent voters, the female voters, the Hillary voters and the conservative Democrats, so he picked a young maverick female who appeals to all of those groups.  It wasn't desperation, it was a smart political move which might help him marginally in the election campaign.  But by November, the VP choices are almost irrelevant.  The presidential election still looks like a very close race, with Obama unable to capitalize on the unpopularity of Bush and the Republicans because he doesn't appeal sufficiently to independents, blue-collar workers and male voters.  McCain is not desperate at all.   Ricciardi, on the other hand, might be desperate.
John Northey - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#191537) #
Wow Mylegacy, not a fan of JP or the US right wing eh?  Avoiding politics as much as possible (I do give McCain credit for finding the only way to make his VP pick really stand out - although I suspect it will end up being more of a sore thumb than a plus in the end)...

Snider coming up now does cost a year on his clock if he was going to be held back until May of 2009.  However, it also shows a desire to break him in quickly and give the ML coaching staff a chance to see what we got here.  I'm sure JP has a plan for 2009 already for Snider, and odds were it was to have him in the majors quickly.  Between his September performance and how he does in spring (totaling over 100 PA's) the Jays should know for sure if Snider is ready or not to help the big league team.  Pedroia is a good point to make - he hit very poorly in his call-up in 2006 (a pre-September one ala Snider's) although in his 3 games vs the Yankees in NY he did go 3 for 8 with hits in all 3 games and 2 doubles and 2 walks.  Namely, in the biggest pressure games of his career to that point he did very well.  Before the NY series he hit 122/173/204, during and after he hit 275/356/425.  Now, we are talking very few AB's but those AB's showed something very important - when facing the team they have to beat he did the job which had to leave an impression on the management.  The following year he hit 182/308/236 in April before taking off in May (415/472/600).

What Snider does will impact things.  It might just be watching to see if he is hitting line drives rather than weak grounders that decides it (grounders getting through won't help, but line drives being caught would despite the effect both have on his stats).

In the end, as a fan I'm glad to see Snider up.  Far more exciting to see if he has it or not.  Far better to know that the Jays now have an incentive to not pull a Longoria and just bring him up to stay if he is ready rather than play games to gain an extra year.  If he is solid then the Jays pay through the nose in 2015 (his free agent year).
James W - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#191538) #

the Yanks, Sawx or Dodgers (or someone) is going to throw $18M at Sheets and he'll be the biggest signing of the offseason.

I know it's nitpicking, but with Sabathia, Teixeira and likely Manny Ramirez on the market, Ben Sheets probably isn't one of the 3 biggest signings of the offseason.

Pistol - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#191540) #
Sheets has only made less than 24 starts in a season once in his eight-year career and he's already crossed that plateau this year in August. Not sure why health would be a concern.

In the three years prior to this season Sheets made 24, 17, and 22.  Before that he made 34 starts for three straight years.  It seems to me he's not as durable as he used to be.

He's pretty much been AJ Burnett health-wise the last 4 years (or vice versa).
Wildrose - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#191541) #
Speaking of Burnett , the Yankee's have more or less given him an open invitation to utilize his player option.
John Northey - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#191542) #
Hmm.  Given we are losing AJ and assume the Jays want a new DH would you blow the wad on Sabathia, Teixeira, or Manny?  What about Sheets?  Or someone else?

  • CC Sabathia has had a 140+ ERA+ for 3 straight years now and is just 27.  A 5 year deal takes him to 32, 8 year to 35.  Just once has he failed to make 30 starts in a season and that year he made 28.  If any pitcher is worth $20 mil per year he is probably it.
  • Teixeira is on his 2nd year of 150 OPS+, 5 straight over 125.  Entering his age 29 season a 5 year deal takes him to 33 which would be the perfect length.  A 1B/DH guy who is a switch hitter.  Well worth a risk, even up to 8 years (age 36).
  • Manny: Entering his age 37 season so a 3 year deal is probably what he'd want, but at over $20 mil per.  In his last 14 seasons he has been over 140 for OPS+ in all but one.  However, that one was last year.  However that was still a 126.  You want a big scary bat?  Here it is.  Plus incentive by being in the same division as his old team and the Yankees.
  • Sheets: Entering his age 30 season, his last 3 were all below 25 starts.  116 ERA+ lifetime but above that all of the past 5 seasons.  Fewer K's than AJ but better results overall, has the same injury risk as AJ I'd think.
Interesting group.  Risks with all, all would cost in the $20 mil per year ballpark except Sheets (maybe) and all would want a 5 year deal with Manny being the only one likely to cut down to a 3 year deal.

Dave501 - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#191543) #

Just read the Yankee's article.  Wouldn't that be considered tampering?

As for the (far from free) Free agents, I'd take Manny if he would DH.  We need a scary bat, RH helps, even if he is a headcase.

AWeb - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#191544) #
Will there be a "gone but not forgotten" thread for Stairs? I'll miss the big-little guy, taking a big swing, chugging around the bases and the outfield, and seemingly doing it without complaint. A .270/.358/.480 line with the Jays, even including this year, was nothing to complain about, and he gave us a legitimately great, and unexpected, year where he was easily the team's best hitter. One of the greatest Canadian baseball players, who hopefully can pick up a few AB's in Philadelphia and add to his 252 HRs. Maybe he'll stick around for a few more years, and add to his 11 team resume (assuming he gets into a game in Philly) and his very good career.
Impossibles - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#191545) #

A poster on philliesnation.com says Fabio Castro is the most likely prospect headed to the Jays.  A 5'-8" lefty reliever, although found a decent write up on him from when he was selected in the rule V draft: (source: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2005/12/rule_5_draft_re_1.php)

"In Castro, the Rangers landed someone who best fits in the Buddy Hernandez Group. It would be a waste to limit Castro to left-handed pitching, but he likely does not have the stuff or endurance to belong in Johan Santana category. So, Fabio should end up pitching in middle relief for the Rangers, where pitching from the left side will only help. What's interesting is that I've heard conflicting reports on Castro's stuff. What's confirmed is a low-90s fastball with good movement that is his bread and butter.

What's debated, and will determine whether Castro returns to the World Champs or not, is the secondary offerings that Castro possesses. Baseball America noted in their Rule 5 review that Castro had a good changeup. What they didn't mention, however, was the fantastic curveball that futuresox.com noted before the 2005 season. If Castro has both pitches in his arsenal, he should last on a Major League roster. If not, it's more of a stretch.

Chance of Lasting: 40%. His strikeout numbers weren't great in high-A, and some high home run numbers won't improve in Dallas. He will likely have to beat out Erasmo Ramirez in Spring Training before even talking about his Major League stats. Not especially likely, but the Rangers certainly saw something here."

http://www.philliesnation.com/archives/2008/08/phillies-acquire-matt-stairs

I'm just passing this along, don't shoot me if I'm wrong.

 

Thomas - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#191548) #
If I were the Jays I'd certainly file tampering charges. I have no idea if the team would win the case, but I think a strong argument could be made that that comment is not only made about a player under contract, but is also made about a player under contract who has multiple years left but the ability to opt out. Given Burnett's unique contract those comments are especially egregious. They are a serious inducement for Burnett to opt out with the expectation of a larger payday from the Yankees coming. Burnett was going to opt out anyway, but it's hard to argument that statement isn't an extra motivation to do so.
damos - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#191551) #
As Impossibles mentions it seems as though the Jays are receiving Fabio Castro from the Phils. 
Buster Olney also says it's Castro:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3559308

Jdog - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#191553) #
The Orange County register is reporting that an Eckstein deal to the Angels is close to being done
Impossibles - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#191554) #

I checked the OCR site, they are only speculating because it looks like a fit.

R Billie - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#191555) #
I don't know about that.  I think tampering only occurs when the team actually talks directly to a player or an agent.

Steinbrenner made a fairly general public comment...a lot of teams are looking at Sabathia and Burnett.  Which is probably true.  He did not specifically indicate an intent to go after either one.  In fact, he questioned whether their arms would be healthy after their heavy usage this year.  Which could be posturing certainly but I doubt it can be interpreted as tampering.

92-93 - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#191556) #
Fabio Castro is warming up in the Phillies bullpen right now? Does that mean it can't be him? Or will it be a PTBNL and they get him in the offseason?
Ducey - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#191558) #

Here are Castro's minor league stats for the last two years:

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Fabio%20Castro&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=466983

He played in Ottawa last year.  Maybe a Bauxite has seen him. Looks like Davis Romero with better stuff but less control? Doesn't seem that bad a pickup for Stairs.

JP likes his left hander pitchers doesn't he?

92-93 - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#191559) #
He also apparently likes them to be 5"7.
Thomas - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#191561) #
R Biliie, I see your point. I should have said, if I thought the tampering charge had a chance of sticking, I would have filed it. Perhaps JP and the front office know there's no chance a comment like that would be interpreting as tampering. That being said, I think it's far from a harmless comment, as he clearly indicates the Yankees are looking at Burnett and it's clear based on this and past statements that the Yankees are prepared to spend cash on pitching.

However, you're right in that the Yankees would be able to defend the comment and likely say that it was based on the assumption Burnett chose free agency and there was no attempt to induce him to waive the final two years of the contract.

Dave Till - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#191562) #
I don't think the Jays have a case for tampering with Burnett: it's reasonably obvious that the Yanks desperately need pitching, and that A.J. has an opt-out clause.

Burnett will wind up in pinstripes if the Yankees outbid the field. But, if the money is equal, he might not want to go to New York: the Yankees aren't exactly a team on the way up. They're old, old, old.

What might happen: Burnett might give the Jays the chance to match any offers he gets from other teams. The question then becomes whether the Jays want to cough up enough money to match a 5-year $60-million-plus offer - I'm sure that Burnett will get offered a 5-year deal from somebody.

And, responding to an earlier comment about Delgado: in 1994, the Jays tried him in left field, as 1B and DH were occupied (Olerud and Molitor had both just finished in the top three in batting in 1993, and weren't going anywhere). Carlos started pressing a bit after a hot start, but he really wasn't an outfielder. Had he learned how to play the outfield at all well in Syracuse, he would have come back up later that year; as it was, he had to wait for the Jays to clear a spot for him.

Magpie - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#191564) #
Since he was called up now, the rest of the season counts as his service time? But if he was called up after rosters expanded, as a september call up, it would not have?

It doesn't actually cost a year on his clock - major league service time is measured in days. Snider's first day is today, and if he'd been called up on September 15th, his first day would have been September 15th.

What it does do  - and calling him up any time between now and September 2009 would have done the same thing - is start the clock on his option years. They only begin once a player has been added to the 40 man roster. The Jays weren't required to put Snider on the 40 man until a year from now. Which meant that if they wanted to send him out next spring, they could.

They still can, of course - but now that he's on the 40 man roster, he has to be optioned to the minors.

A player gets three option years once he's been added to the 40 man roster. In Snider's case, they could be 2009, 2010, 2011. They could be 2009, 2016, 2019. But you only get three years. And that's if the Jays actually use all of Snider's which is by no means certain.

As a practical matter, it means this:  they're absolutely committed to him being on the active roster in 2012.


Blue in SK - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#191565) #

I realize that the PTBNL may not be Castro but if it is, I have to ask why trade Stairs? Left handed relivers we got come out our ears - Carlson, Tallet, Downs, Ryan, etc.... Matt's contract wasn't onerous, so why make the trade? Better to have Matt on the bench than Wilkerson or Mench (yes, I realize that one's in AAA and the other is DL'd) and maybe pick up an at bat for JMac or whomever late in games.

I guess I don't understand what purpose the trade of Matt serves.

I would have bet that the PTBNL was some sort of hitting prospect (perhaps not necessarily a good one). That's an area which obviously needs addressing.

 

TamRa - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#191566) #
^^
Why trade Stairs?

Roster flexibility for next season, the million+ they save by finding a taker, giveing Stairs a chance to finish out on a playoff team instead of maybe getting released ignominiously in the off-season.


Moe - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#191568) #
the million+ they save by finding a taker

Really it's at the most 600k, the replacement will have to get at least minimum wage. Would it really be so bad to have Stairs on the bench for 600k more? It's hard to believe that whoever replaces him will be much better -- unless of course Snider plays like a ROY candidate next year.

They could be 2009, 2016, 2019

Not that it really matters, but it can't be 2016 or '19. After a few years in the majors a player can't be optioned to the minors any more (I think after 3, but I could be wrong).

We won't know until next year whether or not this call-up was expensive in terms of service time. If Snider is with the team all year (and never goes down again), it has no impact; he will be a free agent after his 6th season (Nov 2014) with 6.035 days of service. However, if he doesn't make the team out of spring training, these 35 days will impact the decision when to call him up:
1) Free Agency: If the Jays don't want him to be an FA after 2014, they will have to wait until mid/end May to call him up, then he will end 2014 with 5.xxx days of service and he is under control for 2015. (This is what the Rays did with Longoria, just that he had not been a Sept call up, so mid April was enough)
2) Super 2: If they want to avoid the super 2 status, they will have to wait until mid July to be save. Then he ends 2009 with less than 130 days of service time, so he will have less than 2.130 after 2011 and likely won't be a super 2 then. (This is what the Brewers did with Braun last year, again without him being a call up, so early June was late enough).

Note, that both 1) and 2) assume that he gets called up for good whenever it happens next year, no Adam Lind scenario.


scottt - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#191569) #
Hmm.  Given we are losing AJ and assume the Jays want a new DH would you blow the wad on Sabathia, Teixeira, or Manny?  What about Sheets?  Or someone else?

Priority is improving the offense. Besides, it might be hard to lure another pitcher with the current lineup. A bit of run support and  Halladay would be in line for another Cy Young.

I suppose you could get Manny and then trade him to make room for Snyder, but that approach didn't work very well for Boston.

Teixeira would be great, but that would involved outbidding the Yankees, no?

I'd go with Rafael Furcal. He'll be 31 and coming off lower-back surgery. He's currently making $15 mil/year.


greenfrog - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#191574) #
I wonder whether free agents will think twice about signing here after the Thomas/Dunn fiascos. I could see a lot of players saying thanks, but no thanks - too much risk of some sort of GM meltdown or other crisis. That, or the unlikelihood of making the playoffs, given the team's track record of mediocrity and the fierce competition in the AL East.
mathesond - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 11:51 PM EDT (#191576) #
That, or the unlikelihood of making the playoffs, given the team's track record of mediocrity and the fierce competition in the AL East.

I haven't really noticed a lack of fierce competition driving top free agents to the NL West, so I'm not sure fierce competition is a deterrent to signing in the AL East (non-Yankee, non-Red Sox division)
The_Game - Saturday, August 30 2008 @ 12:55 AM EDT (#191579) #

First off, I don't see what releasing Thomas had to do with Stairs' performance. The guy's old and in decline.
Second, as bad as Stairs has been Thomas has been worse. HIs line since the break looks like this .197/.307/.241. He's also closing in on the pa's that would have vested his option and if he were here that would be the focus. JP's not done a lot of smart things, but getting rid of Thomas was one of them.

You didn't understand my point at all.

If Stairs wasn't thrown into a full-time role as he was, his decline wouldn't have been as glaring as he would have only been a part-time player. The team would have been much better off had they actually replaced Thomas with somebody better outside the organization at first, while moving Lind into LF.

As for Thomas, well he's seemingly going through his early season stage all over again. I don't think he's  nearly as bad as many think he is, though. He's got a .750 OPS in Oakland, and  with tonight's 2-4, he's now 9 for his last 21, and finally could be heading back in the right direction.

Magpie - Saturday, August 30 2008 @ 05:52 AM EDT (#191582) #
Not that it really matters, but it can't be 2016 or '19.

The years do not have to come in succession. They simply have to be available, to have not been used up. If John Olerud were to make a comeback, but he wasn't quite ready, his team could option him to the minors. His three option years have not been used. (Olerud was the actual example under discussion when I was asking the Jays staff about this subject.)
scottt - Saturday, August 30 2008 @ 07:51 AM EDT (#191583) #
JP's not done a lot of smart things, but getting rid of Thomas was one of them.

Well, assuming he would have done the same in Toronto as he did in Oakland, that smart move was very costly. Thomas turned it on in May as he always does and go injured before racking in the at-bats that would have guaranteed him an extra year.
Moe - Saturday, August 30 2008 @ 08:03 AM EDT (#191584) #
Magpie:

From the glossary at Cot's:
"A player with at least 5 years of Major League service may not be demoted to the minor leagues on optional assignment without his consent. A 5-year player who refuses an optional assignment to the minors must be offered his release."

So, yes they don't have to come in succession, but they can't be too deep into the career either unless the player consents.

Pistol - Saturday, August 30 2008 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#191586) #
I don't know about that.  I think tampering only occurs when the team actually talks directly to a player or an agent.

I don't think anything will come of the comment.  Having said that, you can certainly tamper by talking to the media.  If a GM told the media that they can't wait to make CC Sabathia the highest paid pitcher this offseason with an 8 year $200 millino contract don't you think that's tampering?

I think it's worse in Burnett's case because he has to opt out to become a free agent.  It's obvious the market will be better than Burnett's existing contract, but what if it was 3 years and $45 million left?  If someone came out and said 'we'd definitely give him a better contract than that' I can't imagine it's not tampering.  And Steinbrenner effectively did that (although I don't think it was calculated... he just has a big mouth).
John Northey - Saturday, August 30 2008 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#191587) #
Moe: Thanks for the 5 year mention.  I recall the Jays sending Luis Leal down with a day or two left before he hit the 5 year point back in 1985. 

Notes about that: Leal was a key part of the team for 3 years (100+ ERA+ and 200+ IP) before hitting a slide in '85 (67 1/3 IP 74 ERA+).  He was coming off a streak of 4 straight starts with under 5 IP and had 9 in a row under 6 IP in an era when that was really, really bad (his ERA was 8.07 during that streak).  Dennis Lamp filled in at first then Tom Filer came in and went 7-0 the rest of the way although he didn't get any September starts (the Jays were a perfect 9-0 in his starts).  From the looks of it they gave the slot at that point to Steve Davis, who won 20 games between the majors and minors that year, getting 5 starts which the Jays went 4-1 in, followed by giving the final start to John Cerutti (lost to Phil Niekro partially thanks to Damaso Garcia booting a ball, which lead to 3 runs, while I suspect he was hung over from the party the night before after winning the AL East).

So, after sending Leal down the Jays went 13-2 in that 5th slot in the rotation (with one skipped start from the looks of it during the September drive).  Pretty good move, given the Jays won by just 2 games.
ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, August 30 2008 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#191589) #
Well, assuming he would have done the same in Toronto as he did in Oakland, that smart move was very costly. Thomas turned it on in May as he always does and go injured before racking in the at-bats that would have guaranteed him an extra year.

I'm not sure I understand this comment. But if I'm right, you're suggesting that it was 'very costly' to get rid of Thomas on the assumption he would have performed here as he has in Oakland. Thomas has put up a .263/.364/.387 line in Oakland. Since the break, he's been flat-out terrible, with an OPS in the .500's. He's Johnny Mac, except he can't play a position or even run the bases. Not having him in the lineup is costly?

Thomas had an option for 2009 for $10 million, if he gets to 376 PA. Right now, he'd need about 95 or so with a month to go. If he were here with the (rapidly declining) .750 OPS he's put up in Oakland, all the press would be writing about was whether he would be prevented from reaching his 376 PA's. If he sat, there'd be a grievance. If he reached 376 it would be $10 million out of the 2009 team salary. Keeping his limpid bat around to reach 376 PA's is what would have been costly and a destructive distraction. Luckily, his refusal to go on the field and shake hands helped dump him.
Wildrose - Saturday, August 30 2008 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#191590) #
Expect to see Eckstein traded over the weekend.
Gerry - Saturday, August 30 2008 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#191591) #
Rosenthal says the Diamondbacks and the Angels want Eckstein.
China fan - Saturday, August 30 2008 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#191592) #
Eckstein is in the lineup at SS today, presumably to boost his trade value by proving that he can still handle the shortstop position.  He singled in his first at-bat, which helps the cause.
Snider in the lineup again today, batting 9th again, but this time as the DH.
Meanwhile, the Jays today confirmed that Stairs is going to Philadelphia.  But still no official word that Fabio Castro will go to the Jays in return.

Thomas - Saturday, August 30 2008 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#191593) #
I forgot to mention this earlier, but I was listening to Bart Given on the FAN and he said he expects that Snider will be a better defensive outfielder than Lind, which was a bit surprising.
Thomas - Saturday, August 30 2008 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#191595) #
Also, I'm sure this is a case of selective memory, but it seems like every time the Jays start Eckstein there's a couple of important plays where you notice the defensive difference between him and McDonald and when the team starts McDonald, half the time he never has anything to do.
China fan - Saturday, August 30 2008 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#191596) #
Fabio Castro might not be the best prospect in the Phillies farm system, and he seems to have regressed in the past season, but he does have at least one impressive line on his career resume:  he was first promoted to the majors at the age of 21.  After all the talk of Snider's promotion to the majors at the age of 20, it should be noted that Fabio Castro is a lesser-known guy who made it to the majors when he was almost as young as Snider is now.  If there is indeed a statistical correlation between career performance and entry-level age, Castro should not be totally dismissed as a prospect.
ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, August 30 2008 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#191599) #
McDonald makes it look like there's nothing to do. It's only when you see a couple of gound ball translate into 2 runs, that you notice how important the 6-spot is. It's why Cito has avoided playing guys like Eckstein and Zaun in up-the-middle positions they can't field.
ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, August 30 2008 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#191600) #
Sorry. 'ground balls'.
Wildrose - Saturday, August 30 2008 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#191601) #
Cito seems to be quite aware of the defensive spectrum of the game , much more than I imagined. Today he brought in Barrajas, Scutaro, MacDonald and moved inglett to left in the ninth inning all for defensive purposes. Did Gibby ever make four defensive subs? Having said that , I was surprised he didn't bring in Rolen as well.  Bautista did however make an outstanding play to save the game and certainly got a big confidence boost out of this match.
greenfrog - Saturday, August 30 2008 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#191602) #
Exciting win. I'm hoping that the somewhat resurgent Jays are making a good impression on Doc (and possibly, just possibly, AJ) before the off-season rolls around...
Thomas - Saturday, August 30 2008 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#191603) #
McDonald makes it look like there's nothing to do.

I think I'd remember if McDonald had dove and kept that ball in the infield in the first inning. The Jeter single he probably would have made routinely, so I see your point there, but if he dove and saved a run I think that would stick out and you'd remember at least a few of those plays.

But, as I said in the first place, I'm sure it's a case of selective memory for the most part.
John Northey - Saturday, August 30 2008 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#191605) #
Note: just checked the standings.  Seattle is the first team in MLB to be eliminated from having a shot at a division title officially.  If Pittsburgh loses tonight they too will be eliminated with Cincinnati on the bubble with a tragic number of 2 and Washington is at 3. 

As to wild card, Seattle still technically has a shot with a tragic number of 2 while Washington is eliminated from wild card contention.  San Diego is at 2 and could be officially out of it with a loss by them and a Milwaukee win tonight.

The Jays tragic number is 19 for wild card (Yankees at 22), 14 for division. 

Meanwhile, if we had an NBA or NHL system the Jays would be ranked #7 with a 3 1/2 game lead on the #8/9/10 teams (Texas/Cleveland/Detroit all tied, Baltimore 2 1/2 behind Oakland 3 1/2 from that last slot with only KC and Seattle in the no hope category).  The NL would have Florida on the bubble with the Dodgers 3 behind and Colorado 4 1/2 while the rest are out of it (SF/Atlanta/Cincinnati/Pittsburgh/San Diego/Washington).

If the Jays were in the NL West we'd be 1/2 a game back of the leader Arizona (that division sucks), 6 1/2 back in the NL East, 7 1/2 in the AL Central.

Matthew E - Saturday, August 30 2008 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#191606) #
Meanwhile, if we had an NBA or NHL system the Jays would be ranked #7 with a 3 1/2 game lead on the #8/9/10 teams

Well, then, I'm extra glad that we don't have such a system. Imagine rewarding the Jays for turning in this kind of season.
scottt - Saturday, August 30 2008 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#191607) #
I'm not sure I understand this comment. But if I'm right, you're suggesting that it was 'very costly' to get rid of Thomas on the assumption he would have performed here as he has in Oakland. Thomas has put up a .263/.364/.387 line in Oakland. Since the break, he's been flat-out terrible, with an OPS in the .500's.

Players sometimes perform at different levels during a season.

 Let's take Rolen, he came out of the DL on April 25 on fire and by the end of June, he had an OPS of 0.859. Not bad. Then in July he dropped to .477 and had to be put on the DL. His season average of .758 doesn't tell the story.

How about his replacement? Bautista had bee pretty consistent with a OPS of .745 with some months better than other, but he was in a 0-for-11 slump when he landed in Toronto and made it 0-for-23 yesterday.  Hopefully, we didn't get him just for this year.

Thomas had an ops of 1.004 in May. I don't remember the Jays getting that much out of Stewart--who replaced Stairs in LF.  By the time he came off the DL, Lind had earned his spot so they could have still released him then. All in hindsight, of course, but paying him 12 million for his poor April wasn't a smart move, knowing that he always goes through slow starts.  It looks like Thomas might be going back to the DL, so  he won't see his those plate appearances.

What's annoying with Thomas is that they probably considered releasing him right from spring training and that might be the main reason they picked Stewart over Reed Johnson. Now, don't tell me that wasn't costly.

Let's see what happens with Eckstein.


John Northey - Sunday, August 31 2008 @ 02:42 AM EDT (#191608) #
Well, with Thomas we'd have had a DH hitting (if he hit here like he did in Oakland) 263/364/387 for a 107 OPS+ vs Matt Stairs 250/342/394 for a 96 OPS+ mixed with an assortment of crap that would've gotten time whenever Thomas was DL'ed.

None of those options really were much of anything.  Thomas getting a 2 year deal was a mistake by JP, but releasing him thus making sure no 2009 option getting vested was the right move.  Yes, Thomas was hot in May - from the time he was released until he was re-injured at the end of May he hit 319/417/516 - however a portion of that was the determination to prove the Jays (and all the teams that ignored him for a few days) wrong.  After coming back from that injury he hit 211/312/263.  This is a guy who for two portions of the season was a John McDonald level hitter while for one month was the guy he once was and still was being paid to be.

Now, would keeping Reed Johnson have made a big difference?  If Reed was still here and hitting like he has in Chicago (311/367/449 111 OPS+ over 283 AB's) then he'd have been the everyday LF and Lind would have been the guy just called up when Stairs was released.  Probably would've added a couple of wins early on but given Lind has had a 117 OPS+ over 226 AB's the overall picture wouldn't be drastically different.  We'd have had 60 more productive AB's in the 111 range rather than 60 of the Wilkerson/Mench/Stewart AB's.  Now, would the Jays have called up Lind anyways - with Johnson hitting well thus forcing him to DH only - and benched Thomas or platooned him with Reed thus not sign Wilkerson and/or Mench?  Good question and hard to say for certain.  The Jays said they wanted Lind to play everyday no matter what level it was at so I doubt they'd have platooned him with Johnson, especially if Johnson was playing well.

I'd have prefered Reed Johnson staying over Stewart, but could see the argument back when.  Johnson came to life while Stewart died off.  But if Johnson delayed Lind further, would it have hurt the Jays in 2009 more than helped in 2008?  We'd almost certainly not be seeing Snider right now.  Guess we'll know better next year.

ayjackson - Sunday, August 31 2008 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#191609) #
Not to nitpick, John.  But even with Reed on the team, Lind would have been up for good on day 1 of Vernon's first DL trip.  It's Wilkerson and Mench whom would have been off the roster.
Dave Till - Sunday, August 31 2008 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#191610) #
One thing no one has mentioned about Johnson: from what I've been led to believe, he wanted the everyday left fielder's job in Toronto, and would not have been happy in a reserve role.
Thomas - Sunday, August 31 2008 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#191611) #
One thing no one has mentioned about Johnson: from what I've been led to believe, he wanted the everyday left fielder's job in Toronto, and would not have been happy in a reserve role.

Source, please? He may have preferred an everyday role, but he appeared to have no problem platooning with Catalanotto and certainly seems to be enjoying himself in Chicago, where he isn't playing every game.
Thomas - Sunday, August 31 2008 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#191612) #
Dave, thinking about it I recall one article to that effect last year from Griffin, but Reed's quotes seemed to be that he felt he wasn't given as much a chance to reestablish himself as an everyday player as he wanted after his injury. If there is more evidence for your point that I'm unaware of that's fine, but I would hardly use that one article to conclude that Reed "would not have been happy" in a platoon role.

You can find plenty of quotes of his from this year where he speaks about how much he's enjoying himself in Chicago and he's in a platoon role there. You can find quotes where Reed says that he knows he can play everyday in the majors, but I haven't found one where he says he deserves to play everyday or will only be happy if he's starting. Such a belief in yourself is a perfectly healthy, and perhaps necessary, attitude for a major leaguer to have and it's fine as long as the player doesn't become a distraction, and I don't recall any evidence Johnson ever was.
China fan - Sunday, August 31 2008 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#191613) #
Snider not in the starting lineup today.  This seems reasonable to me -- he probably shouldn't be playing every day.  Give him enough time to absorb what's happening around him, without putting too much pressure on him.   He'll learn a lot just from sitting on the bench and talking to major-leaguers.
Wildrose - Sunday, August 31 2008 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#191614) #
Blair is back in the saddle and he's talking about the winds of change.

I think Johnson would have gotten plenty of time given the injuries to Wells. Seems like he's not as hurt as the Jays expected. Was this another Gibby bias? 

Thomas - Sunday, August 31 2008 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#191615) #
Here's how historic yesterday's win was: the Yankees had won the previous 235 games at Yankee Stadium where they took a lead of four or more runs into the seventh inning or later. The last time they lost such a lead was back in April 2000, against the Angels.

Sure that stat defines its own cutoff points - 4 or more runs, 7th inning or later - but still pretty impressive.

HollywoodHartman - Sunday, August 31 2008 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#191616) #
Blair mentions Terry Ryan as a candidate if JP gets axed. Is anyone else as terrified about that as I am?
damos - Sunday, August 31 2008 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#191617) #
Not sure where else to put this but uhh....Sportsnet is reporting that Eckstein has been traded to Arizona for 23 year old RHP Chad Beck. 
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