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Macier Izturis looked at a called third strike (there being little point in actually swinging at the damn thing) for the final out of the ballgame. It was the 133rd pitch Roy Halladay had thrown in the game, a new career high.

How about that?

Me, I absolutely don't care. As I've commented many times, I'm much more interested in how much time the man spends working out than the number of reps he does while he's working. So I'd rather see something like tonight, where Halladay throw 133 pitches in 2 hours and 22 minutes rather than throwing 100 pitches in some three hour plus marathon.

Gerry did say, however, that "It will be interesting to see how Doc pitches on Sunday after the 133 pitches tonight.  Usually that is when you see the fall-out."

Well, there's something we can look up! Time to visit my handy-dandy database of every major league appearance Roy Halladay has ever made - and I can tell you, this is something I've enjoyed maintaining.

This was the 12th time in his career that Halladay has thrown more than 120 pitches in a start. His record in those 12 games is 4-4, 2.96. He's pitched 94.2 IP, allowed 38 runs (31 ER), given up 96 hits (4 homers), struck out 81 and walked 29. Both the strikeout and walk figures are significantly higher than Halladay's well-established career norms. Over his career Halladay has averaged 6.5 Ks and 2.1 BB per 9 innings - but in these games, those figures are 7.7 and 2.8, so that's obviously what was driving up his pitch count in these particular games.  Just 3 of those 12 starts saw Halladay actually throw a complete game.

There are, so far, 11 Next Starts to look at. In those 11 games, Halladay is 7-2, 3.25. He's pitched 83.2 IP, allowed 30 runs (30 ER), given up 83 hits (5 HR), struck out 53 and walked 16. You will notice that in these games he allows hits at exactly the same rate, but both the Ks and BBs drop below his career averages (to 5.7 and 1.7).

Curiously enough, there is actually some overlap between these two lists. Two of the Next Starts after a 120+ pitch outing turned out to be another 120+ pitch outing. In fact four of Halladay's twelve 120+ pitch games came from a stretch of five consecutive starts in August and September 2007 - and the one start in that stretch where he didn't throw 120+ pitches came in a complete game loss against the Angels (the Jays were shutout, he took a 3-0 loss.)

Anyway, here are the 12 starts, in chronological order:

Career Team
Game   Game Date         Opp Rest  Result  Dec  IP     H    R   ER   BB   SO   HR    BF    Pit

85    48   May 27 2002  BOS  4    L,6-8   L    6    8    6    2    2    7    0    29    126
123    66   Jun 11 2003  PIT  4    W,8-5   W    8    8    1    1    1    9    0    33    120
153    38   May 16 2004  BOS  4    W,3-1   W    7    6    1    1    2    6    0    28    120
174    38   May 15 2005  @CLE 4    W,5-2   W    7.2   5    1    1    3    6    0    30    124
236    103   Jul 28 2007  @CHW 5    L,0-2   L    8    10    2    2    2    7    1    35    126
240    123   Aug 19 2007  BAL  4    W,3-2        9    6    2    2    3    5    0    35    120
242    133   Aug 29 2007  @OAK 4    L,4-5        9    7    4    4    6    4    0    36    124
243    138   Sep  4 2007  @BOS 5    L,3-5   L    8    9    5    5    2    7    2    35    126
244    143   Sep 10 2007  @DET 5    L,4-5        8.2  11    3    3    1    3    0    36    123
264    79   Jun 25 2008  CIN 4    L,5-6        6.2   9    5    5    4    7    1    33    121
272    117   Aug  9 2008  CLE  4    L,2-4   L    6.2  10    4    1    2    6    0    34    130
293     54   Jun  2 2009  LAA  5    W,6-4   W    9    7    4    4    1   14    0    33    133
And here's what happened the next time out:
Career Team
Game   Game Date      Opp Rest  Result  Dec  IP    H    R   ER    BB  SO   HR    BF    Pit

 86      53  Jun  2 2002  @DET  5    W,7-6    W   8    11    6    6    1    7    1    36    114
124      71  Jun 18 2003  @BAL  6    W,6-2    W   7    6    2    2    0    5    1    27    91
154    42  May 21 2004  @BOS  4    L,5-11      6    7    5    5    5    3    0    27    98
175    43  May 21 2005  WSN   5    W,7-0    W   7    4    0    0    2    2    0    26    98
237    108  Aug  3 2007  TEX   5    W,6-4    W   6    7    4    4    2    9    0    28    105
241    128  Aug 24 2007  @LAA  4    L,0-3   L   8    12    3    3    0    5    0    36    111
243    138  Sep  4 2007  @BOS  5    L,3-5    L   8    9    5    5    2    7    2    35    126
244    143  Sep 10 2007  @DET  5    L,4-5        8.2  11    3    3    1    3    0    36    123
245    148  Sep 15 2007  BAL   4    W,8-3    W   7    5    1    1    2    2    0    25    100
265    84  Jun 30 2008  @SEA  4    W,2-0    W   9    4    0    0    0    6    0    32    115
273    123  Aug 16 2008  @BOS  6    W,4-1    W   9    7    1    1    1    4    1    32    109

Yup. Halladay is even more likely to win the game than usual - he's won 7 of the 11 games. Over his career, Halladay has won 51% of his starts (137 of 267), which is pretty phenomenal itself.

Halladay is actually more likely to throw a complete game in the Next Start ( 4 out of 11) than in one of the 120+ outings (3 of 12).

Let's face it - the man is a Living.... wait a minute. I promised, didn't I? Not going to go there.


He's pretty good, OK.

Lots of Pitches | 63 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 05:18 AM EDT (#200807) #

Roy 'Doc' Hallady, the living legend.

Roy wins 52.43% of his starts.   Roy loses 25.09% of his starts which is very good.  22.48% of his starts are no-decisions.  What percent of that is team wins?

Matthew E - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#200808) #
I think the pitch-count thing is more important for young pitchers than for veterans (from an injury-risk point of view). Halladay's not a young pitcher anymore. So I'm okay with it in moderation.
westcoast dude - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#200809) #
Doc is a living pitching machine.  Magpie is a living database machine.  Both men are at the top of their class.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#200811) #
I am not particularly worried about increased injury risk, but I probably would have pulled Doc after 7.  It should be noted that he was on 5 days rest due to the off days.

rtcaino - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#200812) #
On paper, I would have take Doc out after seven - but I would not have wanted to be the person to tell him he was getting pulled out! Probably a smart move by Cito!

Also, in consideration of how his last two starts ended, as well as the fact that he is Roy Freakin Halladay, I'm cool with what transpired.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#200813) #
Incidentally, if it was Game 7 of the World Series, Halladay would have stayed in the game.  A slightly fatigued Halladay is still the best pitcher on the club by a noticeable margin. 
Mick Doherty - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#200814) #

Doc is a living pitching machine.  Magpie is a living database machine.  Both men are at the top of their class.

And to think, we almost traded our guy (Mags, not Roy) to an Oakland blog for three promising Statistics grad students and a storyteller TBNL!

jmoney - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#200815) #
All his pitches were working but that cutter was just plain evil. Must have seen five or six Angels go back to the dugout shaking their heads as that one bit in on the inner half of the plate.

Halladay isn't just a starter. He's a closer too.

snider - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#200816) #

Is there any way that during Docs regiment of tossing between starts he can just be plunked on the mound for an inning, maybe close out a tight game.

Just kidding, sort of...

China fan - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#200817) #
I'm okay with Halladay's 130 pitches, even though it was apparently a career record number for him.  I have to assume that Cito and Arny were talking to him between innings after the 7th and 8th innings.  And there was at least one mound visit in the 7th inning, if I recall rightly from Gameday.  I think Halladay is mature and smart enough to give the coaches a good sense of how he is doing.  (Better than BJ Ryan in the communications department, I'd have to think.)  It's a consensus thing among all of them.  If Doc and Cito and Arny are all convinced that Doc can do it without putting undue strain on his arm, it's certainly good enough for me.
rtcaino - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#200818) #
Jerry mentioned on the radio that Gaston was talking to Doc between innings: I believe it was between the 8th and 9th, and he speculated that Doc would be coming back out. "Hip to hip" he described them, which struck me as an awkward choice of words.
joeblow - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#200820) #
There was a very good shot on the TV broadcast of Cito and Doc talking after the 8th inning. Both were smiling. Doc had his arm wrapped in ice. My read on Cito's thoughts were "I don't want my bullpen to lose this game for you and then have you blame yourself for that 4-run inning. Want to go back?"
TamRa - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#200822) #
No time to do the math myself but I wonder how those Next Start stats look if you exclude that one stretch of several games you mentioned.

Just on the theory that the accumultion of exertion might have driven down the results during that stretch.

#2JBrumfield - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#200824) #

You will notice that in these games he allows hits at exactly the same rate, but both the Ks and BBs drop below his career averages (to 5.7 and 1.7).

If Doc only does half as well against K.C. in the strikeout department, everyone's still getting free pizza on Sunday!  That seventh inning when he gave up all four runs was shocking because he was so dominant early on.  Still, the fact the Angels got the tying run to the plate in the ninth did concern me given his pitch count but he got the job done. 

The bottom half of the lineup had a nice game with Rolen, Millar, Barajas and Bautista coming up big.  They had to because the top of the order wasn't getting it done, aside from Rios' solo jack.  It's nice to see the Jays lineup depth come through against a pretty decent pitcher in Joe Saunders.

Blue in SK - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#200827) #
I can't recall if this was part of the in game broadcast or part of sportsdesk afterwards but someone mentioned that in Doc's career he has 45-ish no decisions, and 27-ish were due to blown saves. That seems like an inordinately large number of lost Wins for a pitcher. Too bad for Doc that he (almost) always seems to receive poor run support.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#200828) #
Halladay receives typical run support (7.2 runs/game in 2009, 4.61 in 2008, 5.59 in 2007, 5.6 in 2006, 4.2 in 19 starts in 2005, 4.71 in 2004, 5.67 in 2003 and 5.28 in 2002).  He's a great and durable pitcher, and the odds are that he will win 20 games for the 3rd time in his career in 2009.  He has won over 50% of his career starts.  These are all terrific numbers, and it would be best if we looked at the "career wins" number and just laughed it off.  He started late, and has missed parts of a couple of seasons for odd reasons even though he is a mensch.  May that never happen again...
John Northey - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#200829) #
For those who complain about Halladay's support check out poor old Dave Stieb.  He should've won 20 a few times but despite having endurance and a low ERA he kept coming up short of 20 and never getting that Cy Young he deserved.  It was painful - especially in 1985 when he led the league in ERA and won just 14 games.  Very frustrating.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#200839) #
especially in 1985 when [Stieb] led the league in ERA and won just 14 games.

Even more disturbing, he did this for a team that won 99 games - he went 14-13 with a league best 2.48 ERA, in 265 IP.

How did this happen?

Well, as old-timers around here will recall, I went over this in grisly detail back in 2005. To be brief:

Apr 8 - LOSS 2-1 to KC.

Apr 13 - ND. Turned a 6-2 lead over to the pen. They couldn't hold it.

Apr 22 - LOSS 2-0 to KC.

May 2 - LOSS. Took a 2-1 in the 9th. Gave up the tie and left the winning run on base. The pen couldn't strand it.

May 17 - ND. Turned a 6-0 lead over to the pen. They couldn't hold this one, either.

Jun 12 - ND. 2-2 tie after 9, bullpens decided it.

Jun 17 LOSS. Pitched a 4-hitter, lost 2-1.

Jul 3 - ND. See June 12. A 2-2 tie after 9. Game went to the pen.

Jul 17 - ND. Turned a 3-2 lead over to the pen in the 8th. Bad idea.

Jul 30 - ND. Turned a 3-2 lead over to the pen in the 9th. Still a bad idea.

Aug 28 - ND. Turned a 5-2 lead over to the pen. Whoops. At least they won in extra innings.

Sep 12 - ND. Ahead 4-1 in the 7th, when first the defense and then the pen imploded.

September 22 - LOSS 2-1 on an unearned run.

He lost 4 games when his team scored 0, 1, 1, 1 run for him. His bullpen coughed up 7 leads he had turned over to them. That's why he won 14 instead of 21. If his luck had been just average, he would have gone around 18-9. If his luck had been good, he might have won 23 or 24 games. If Tom Henke had just arrived a few years earlier...

Geoff - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#200842) #
Sure, but how does he fare in the fourth start after a big pitch workload? Usually that is when you see the fall-out.

Never ceases to amaze me how neat, scientific theories get applied to predict the real world of baseball players, games, or accessories. If there is to be one great Unifying Theory to how baseball works, surely the great Harry Halladay will be the one who tells us that secret.

Magpie - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#200844) #
I'll check when I get home!

In the meantime, here at the dome...

Wow. Avril Lavigne is tiny.
rtcaino - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#200845) #
Funny you should mention, Magpie. My friend works at the dome and she texted me the same thing.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#200847) #
The club does need another left-handed bat.  Inglett isn't getting much work, and you  need a left-handed bat, other than Lind or Overbay, to break up the lineup a bit against a tough right-hander.  There are often platoon DH types freely available, and it would be better to have one of those than have both Inglett and McDonald without much of a role.
Shane - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#200848) #

The club does need another left-handed bat

Absolutely. As well, I think an upgrade over Millar at the soonest available moment would also be boon for the clubs 09 fortunes. Ricciardi's failed miserably at upgrading the line-up last season, and I can't imagine it "being fair to the players" to be that apathetic again.

Geoff - Wednesday, June 03 2009 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#200851) #
The club does need another left-handed bat.

Tom Glavine bats left handed and just became available today.

92-93 - Thursday, June 04 2009 @ 12:31 AM EDT (#200853) #
Need a left-handed bat? Barry Bonds still hasn't retired. I think Manny's All-Star vote total shows how little fans care about alleged PED use.
slitheringslider - Thursday, June 04 2009 @ 12:32 AM EDT (#200854) #
I know it is just wishful thinking, but do you think we have the necessary pieces to get Adrian Gonzalez? The Padres are trying to rebuild and they figure they can get quite a package out of him. Maybe a package centered around Cooper and Cecil? With all due respect to Lyle Overbay, a player like Gonzalez could put us over the top. He excels both offensively and defensively
Richard S.S. - Thursday, June 04 2009 @ 05:26 AM EDT (#200860) #

Roy 'Doc' Hallady, the living legend.  How good is he?

When checking this site for Wed. 3 Jun. '09, I found this site and near the bottom of the page I found  Roy Halladay, Blue Jays, age 32.  They say Doc must pitch for 16 more years to win 300 games.  I contend that at Doc's pace over the last 7 years gives him a chance to do it in 10 years.  When Roy Halladay started he was Roy; after Mel Queen he became Doc, the Legend. 

Jevant - Thursday, June 04 2009 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#200861) #
I would think you would need to start with Snider, Cecil and Overbay.  And maybe more.

At the same time...would I do that?  Probably.

PeteMoss - Thursday, June 04 2009 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#200869) #

 From Jordan Bastian's twitter:

Adam Lind has 8 hits in a row. Rios has 7 strikeouts in a row. The Blue Jays Yin and Yang.

About sums it up.


Noah - Thursday, June 04 2009 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#200870) #
I know that cito want's to keep him fresh, but there is absolutely NO excuse for not using Scott Rolen as a pinch hitter late in today's game.  His unwillingness to pinch hit for his starting lineup is becoming aggravating at best.
92-93 - Thursday, June 04 2009 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#200871) #
"but there is absolutely NO excuse for not using Scott Rolen as a pinch hitter late in today's game."

What do you mean? Cito lost one today so he can win 2 tomorrow.
christaylor - Thursday, June 04 2009 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#200872) #
I don't think there'd be a need (and Jays fans should be upset if it happens) to send the two best prospects the Jays have for Gonzalez. I like Gonzalez as much as the next guy but the Teixeira trade is probably the right benchmark as they're pretty similar players. That trade was a top prospect and a reliever. Gonzalez has two years instead of one left on his deal, but I don't think that extra year warrants giving up a ton more.

King Ryan - Thursday, June 04 2009 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#200873) #
So, how about Adam Lind?

5-for-5 with 3 doubles.  Eight total bases, and, thanks to Hill and Rios, 0 RBI.

I thought that might be a record for a clean-up hitter.  Not quite:
King Ryan - Thursday, June 04 2009 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#200874) #

"Adam Lind has 8 hits in a row. Rios has 7 strikeouts in a row. The Blue Jays Yin and Yang.

About sums it up."

And Aaron Hill is 0 for his last 20.  

Now would be a good time for Vernon to step up...

Mike Green - Thursday, June 04 2009 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#200877) #
I missed today's game entirely (work can be so inconvenient sometimes). 

I am pleased that Inglett got the start with Rios in center, and that he reached base twice.  Nonetheless, when you face two tough right-handers in a row with a lineup that lists to the right pretty strongly, you can expect difficulties. 

Magpie - Thursday, June 04 2009 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#200878) #
there is absolutely NO excuse for not using Scott Rolen as a pinch hitter late in today's game.

Scott Rolen's career numbers against Brian Fuentes:

0-4, 2 Ks.

So there's at least one excuse.
christaylor - Friday, June 05 2009 @ 01:35 AM EDT (#200884) #
I confess: I don't understand the 2009 Blue Jays at all.

I also confess: it is much less fun watching Millar/Batista/Inglett than it was watching Snider even with his strugles.

Again I confess: I want to see someone take Tallet's spot. Tallet's done more than Ray/Cecil did to pitch himself out of the rotation, yet I suspect that he'll keep being run out there. I'd even rather see Purcey be handed the ball 5 days from now. Also, I'm not a fan of having Cecil in the PCL. I'd rather seem him fail in the majors and hit the learning curve for next year.

In an ideal world, JP would be able to snag something to help the team, but I suspect the team is what it is... sad, because neither NY or BOS are anywhere near as scary as pre-season pundits had them being. I'm having fun watching the team this year, especially the two pictured in the da box's graphic banner, along with Lind... but it is a tad frustrating to feel that the team is so limited in what it'll do from the front office, never mind the Cito being Cito managerial style (which is fun and fine when everything goes right but oh so easy to point to things he could do, but won't).

Ah, there... confession and a bit of ranting are good for the baseball fan's soul. I hope the gods of the great church of baseball are appeased and the Jays don't let the guy with Social Anxiety Disorder give their bats a bout of Clinical Depression.
Glevin - Friday, June 05 2009 @ 02:57 AM EDT (#200885) #
"Scott Rolen's career numbers against Brian Fuentes:

0-4, 2 Ks.

So there's at least one excuse."

Not a good one. You need a good number of ABs or absurd results before it means anything. I know that Ben Francisco kills Sonnenstine because he is something like 8 fpr 9 with 5 HRs. If someone goes 0-10 with 9 Ks they have a very hard time hitting them. Apart from that, you need to rack up some ABs before it means anything. 0-4 with 2 Ks (and a HBP) over 7 years is meaningless.
The_Game - Friday, June 05 2009 @ 04:36 AM EDT (#200886) #
Chris, you are aware that Tallet had 6 straight QS before yesterday's game right? In fact, yesterday was really only his 2nd "bad" start as a starting pitcher in nearly 2 months.

I don't think he has any sort of future as a starter of this team and his peripherals don't indicate great success for the rest of the season, but he certainly hasn't done anything worthy of losing his job. Not with Janssen and Romero struggling at the major league level, Litsch still hurt, and Purcey walking 26 batters in 40 innings in AAA.

The_Game - Friday, June 05 2009 @ 04:39 AM EDT (#200887) #
Also, the Jays never had any intention of contending this year (and it's becoming more obvious that they won't be). The roster is built for 2010, so don't expect to see them make any kind of move to improve the team.
John Northey - Friday, June 05 2009 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#200892) #
One has to suspect that JP hopes Tallet can get hot and become trade bait for a young hitter.  Contenders tend to be desperate for pitching, especially left handed pitching, thus Tallet could have a fair amount of value to a team on the edge.  If Janssen can come back strong he would also be on the block I suspect as he is up to 3 years service after this season thus arbitration eligible (I don't think he was officially in the minors, always on the ML DL).  If by some miracle Marcum made it back pre-September and had a strong start or two he too could be available to a desperate contender (arbitration after this year).  Others like Litsch, Cecil, Romero, Richmond, Purcey and Ray are playing for whatever the Jays wish to pay them in 2010 (and beyond for most) thus are extremely unlikely to be traded to a contender even if they do well from here on out.

I suspect the entire bullpen is available in trade as well, although I doubt the Jays would get as much for them as they would for a guy like Tallet who can also start.

snider - Friday, June 05 2009 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#200893) #

What do you mean? Cito lost one today so he can win 2 tomorrow.

I would think that having O-bay strike out with the game on the line would be more damaging to his confidence than lifting him for a PH.  I suscribe to the "win when you can" philosphy.   Cito might want to look into that.

snider - Friday, June 05 2009 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#200894) #
What was going on in the ninth with Cito not playing the infield in?  (tie game bases loaded, no out)    Isn't this a no brainer?
chris_jays - Friday, June 05 2009 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#200895) #
How can you possibly blame overbay when he's easily been our hottest hitter in the last 20 games.
Richard S.S. - Friday, June 05 2009 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#200897) #

Roy Halladay's Proposed New Cotract Extention Offer!

1). 15 consecutive one year option years - Roy's choice, to play or not.   2). $1,250,000.00 base salary or buyout.   3). Wins: $187,500.00 per win.   4). ERA: $30,000.00 per .01 under 4.00.   5). Strikeouts: $18,750 per K.   6). I.P.: $17,500 per IP.   7). Games Started: $117,187.50 per start.

It's time to pay Roy what he's worth, for as good he's worth, for as long as he wants to pitch.  Last  year Roy's earnings, under this proposal, would have been: $19,444,687.50.  Different proposals can be made, but I think this is fair.


Paul D - Friday, June 05 2009 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#200898) #


Richard, you're not allowed to have pay for performance contracts like that.  I believe you can only pay for playing time (so you could pay for starts or innings, but not wins or Ks).

Chuck - Friday, June 05 2009 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#200899) #

Roy Halladay's Proposed New Cotract Extention Offer!

First off, a player's contract can only contain pay stipulations predicated on playing time, not performance metrics. This, presumably, is meant to avoid a situation where a team's goals and a player's goals are not in sync.

Second, any pitcher wants as much guaranteed money as possible, given the nature of their profession. I would imagine that Halladay would prefer a 5/100 contract rather than the chance to earn 25M each year for 5 years, with no up front pay guarantees.

John Northey - Friday, June 05 2009 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#200900) #
Given Halladay is a premium pitcher, generally viewed as one of the top 3 in MLB (don't know who I'd take above him, but lets put it as top 3-5).  The highest contracts ever for pitchers are...
CC Sabathia, $161,000,000 (2009-15)
Johan Santana, $137,500,000 (2008-13)
Barry Zito, $126,000,000 (2007-13)
Mike Hampton, $121,000,000 (2001-08)
Kevin Brown, $105,000,000 (1999-2005)

For per year we get...
Roger Clemens, $28,000,022 (2007)
CC Sabathia, $23,000,000 (2009-15)
Johan Santana, $22,916,667 (2008-13)
Only A-Rod is higher than these two (Clemens is #1 all time for his 1/2 season)
Roger Clemens, $22,000,022 (2006)
Carlos Zambrano, $18,300,000 (2008-12)

So, given these figures for top 5 annual and top 5 net worth we could say Halladay starts at $18 mil per year, more likely $20+, for at least 5 years.  He might be willing to go 3 years with options but only if those options were guaranteed if he is healthy (ie: 25+ starts adds another year) with more cash up front.  The good news is I doubt he'll try to set all-time records in salary, as I don't think he wants to go to NY or Boston, but I could be wrong there too (the lure of a WS is a big one).

All figures are from Cot's Contracts

TamRa - Friday, June 05 2009 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#200906) #
Wilner says - I think correctly - that they will simply ask Doc "What do you want?" and whatever he says, he'll get.

I do tend to think that comparisons to CC and Santana are a bit flawed due to age considerations, but the per-year figures have value.

What I think would be best for all is something like a 4 year extension (to the current deal, thus 5 guaranteed in all) which covers his age 33-37 seasons and averages in the 22 per year range (both in league with the other great starter contracts, and more than Wells in any given year)

and after that, a series of mutual options - something like 16/13/10/7 and then 7 every year thereafter that both parties choose to exercise.

(and of course the option to re-negotiate if circumstances change)

The idea being something like Wakefield's situation in Boston that is almost a perpetual contract as long as he wants it.

TamRa - Friday, June 05 2009 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#200907) #
Oh, and about the 300 win thing...

Doc's 162 game average, per B-R, since Opening Day 2002 looks like this:

19-8, 3.16 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 34 starts

That's a 19 game pace spread over EIGHT seasons. Hampered only by the fact that a couple of fluky events (broken leg, appendix) and one arm issue have cost him some starts.

Now, he has 140 wins. He has 20-22 more starts this season, if healthy, and might win as many as 15 more games, at least 10.

So if he finishes the year with 150, and he needs 150, what does that mean?
One way to look at is it to say what if he one one less game each year?
Age - wins
33 - 19
34 - 18
35 - 17
36 - 16
37 - 15
38 - 14
39 - 13
40 - 12
41 - 11
42 - 10
43 - 9

total = 154

So, can Doc average 17 wins per over the next five years? that's not a huge stretch.
Can he average 12 per over the following five years? Again, seems reasonable.

and every year he has a huge year like this year the less demanding the other years become. Even winning 25 this year eliminates the need for that age 43 season entierly, just for example.

IMO, assuming health - particularly arm health - there's little reason to assume Doc can't reach 300 or that he would need to pitch past age 45 to do it (albeit I wouldn't put it past him lasting that long)

TamRa - Friday, June 05 2009 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#200908) #
Speaking of potential trades, there was a mention on MLBTR about the Rangers potentially dealing a hitter for relief help. i wonder what wed have to add to Accardo to get Blalock (for instance)?

Or heck, as much as I like what Frasor is doing this year - if Cito won't use him in high leverage situations we might as well get something for him while his value is up.

Mike Green - Friday, June 05 2009 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#200909) #
Jason Frasor's LI in 2009 is 1.41.  That is actually pretty high for a non-closer.

When I looked this up, Adele's "Chasing Pavements" came on.  In the spirit of the Brad Wilkerson and Calle Johanson ditties of past Box years, I offer:

"Should I give up or should I just keep Jason Frasor"

Nick Holmes - Friday, June 05 2009 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#200913) #
My low (scoring) expectations of this game seem to have been exceeded.
snider - Friday, June 05 2009 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#200914) #
Any comments on that Rios video yelling at fan at the ROM that is floating around?  Obviously the fan is an idiot but I think Rios' reaction was very telling. 
ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, June 06 2009 @ 12:07 AM EDT (#200915) #
Aaron Hill's now 0-25 with back-to-back Golden Sombreros.

Does he sit tomorrow for Inglett? Or does Cito figure a Luke Hochevar start is a good cure for a sick bat.
TamRa - Saturday, June 06 2009 @ 01:22 AM EDT (#200916) #
RE Rios

Not to excuse Rios language or his lack of self control BUT

Given how very bad a day he had just had, it's more understandable that he'd be in a very pissy mood than if it was just your average day.

Given that his reputation is as a very laid back - to the point of being acussed of having no passion - guy, I would think that a very abberational "raw" moment is something that can be forgiven in light of the apology.,

Still, for those who are obsessed with his not having turned into a Hall of Famer already and thus he's a "bum" - it can't do anything but cause more b***hing about him.


johnny was - Saturday, June 06 2009 @ 02:04 AM EDT (#200917) #
The only shame was that it was caught on video; that guy was an asshole.  Just imagine the after hours fan-player exchanges you'd be seeing if there were cellphone cameras during George Bell's tenure in Toronto...

snider - Saturday, June 06 2009 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#200918) #
To be honest if I saw Rios snub a kid for an autograph like that I probably would say something as well.  In my opinion Rios comes off worse than the fan in that video.   "Who cares" pretty much sums Rios up to me.
Thomas - Saturday, June 06 2009 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#200919) #
Does he sit tomorrow for Inglett?

I wouldn't mind seeing him sit in favour of McDonald. McDonald deserves more than a start a month. Johnny Mac could play second and it might not be a bad idea with the four-game set coming up in Texas without an off day either before or after the flight.

John, I agree the Jays should deal Tallet if they get a good offer for him, but I don't think that the team is going to get a deal that makes it worth it. Other teams will likely look past his peripherals and be hesitant to count on his further success. Plus, Tallet's ability to perform multiple roles is quite valuable, as he could easily become the setup lefty if he went back to the pen given Carlson's recent struggles.

During the offseason I was one advocating keeping Tallet because I thought he was valuable and didn't think the Jays would get enough in a trade to make it worth it to the team to deal him. I never expected him to be the team's second best starter after two months of the season, but I do think the same principle applies.

Magpie - Saturday, June 06 2009 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#200922) #
but I think Rios' reaction was very telling.

I dunno. I think I had a bad day once. I may even have behaved like a jerk. I don't know how much that reveals about me.
snider - Saturday, June 06 2009 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#200926) #
I dunno. I think I had a bad day once. I may even have behaved like a jerk. I don't know how much that reveals about me

It what he said that was telling.  Most people would insult the guy or say nothing, Rios said "who the %$%$ cares".  I believe him, I don't think he really cares and it shows on the field.
ayjackson - Saturday, June 06 2009 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#200928) #
Hey, can you read tea leaves too? 
Magpie - Saturday, June 06 2009 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#200931) #
If I had a dollar for every time someone who cares deeply about something or someone nevertheless snapped that they didn't care... well, I could buy the bloody Yankees.

Not that I would, of course.
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