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Yesterday Joe Posnanski and Bill James had another of their interesting exchanges over at SI.com and this time the subject was the contemporary obsession with keeping pitch counts low.

I have some highlights from the discussion and - to justify my participation - some Data Tables!

Posnanski: We both like the idea of team officials doing what they can to protect their young starting pitchers ... nobody wants to go back to those days when a 21-year-old Mark Fidrych throws a preposterous 198 innings in the 13 weeks between May 15 and Aug. 29.  But the current 100-pitch limit that has overtaken baseball doesn't make much sense, either. Why 100 pitches? Is it because it's a nice round number? Does it have any basis at all?

There's a question no one has an answer for, at least not that I'm aware of. Meanwhile, Texas Rangers president Nolan Ryan is hoping he can get his pitchers to find a way to go deeper into games. This was never a problem for Ryan himself, and obviously it may be a little optimistic to expect mere mortals to carry the same kind of workload that the Express did. But on the other hand...

James: I think that what Ryan is doing CAN succeed, because he is doing battle with an empty suit. There's really no basis to the belief that a mature starting pitcher can't throw 150 or 160 pitches in a game -- when he's feeling good, when he's throwing freely and not fighting anything -- without negative consequences.

This is true. We actually know this to be true. We don't know that every starting pitcher in baseball can do it. We're pretty sure that quite a few of them can't. But just last week I found that Roger Clemens, David Cone, and Jack Morris all had managed to continue with their careers after throwing that many pitches in a game. I think Roy Halladay probably could as well (although I can't imagine Halladay actually needing to throw that many pitches, at least not without going a fair ways into extra innings.)

I doubt any manager today would allow them to do that, of course. I certainly don't recommend it as a regular policy, every fifth day. I don't recommend springing it on someone out of the blue, someone who's never gone past 110 pitches. And the traditional way of finding out whether a pitcher can carry a heavier workload obviously has problems (if he wrecks his arm, well, now you know!)

But certain guys, every now and then... I've got no problem with it. And I've got no problem with a proven and physically mature starter averaging 130 pitches per start.

Posnanski: How did we get here? Let's think about this for a moment. Baseball, as an industry, spends billions of dollars on starting pitchers. Billions...And the point? Teams spend all this money on starting pitchers, and then they decide that the round number, 100 pitches, is ideal. Exactly 100 pitches. Not 110. Not 123. Not 97. No, 100 pitches, ideal, no matter how old the pitcher, no matter what kind of stuff he throws, no matter if he's left-handed or right-handed, no matter what. One hundred pitches.

James: The movement toward harder and lower pitch counts, which began about 1980 and matured about 2000, was driven by the desire to avoid injuring pitchers, which is laudable. None of us wants to see starting pitchers get hurt. It was -- is -- an excellent idea to do anything you can to avoid starting pitchers getting hurt....

That's one reason, and probably the most important one. Me, cynic that I am, think managers have gone along with this quite happily (Posnanski's statement to the contrary below notwithstanding) because it simplifies their job. It eliminates the burden of having to make a decision. This is especially the case in the American League, where the decision on whether or not to remove the starter is not shaped by some of the factors at work in the National League. In the NL, if you''re behind by a run in the seventh, and the pitcher's spot in the order comes around, you have to pinch hit. There's no decision required. (And for those of you who go to the ballpark to watch middle aged guys think - pinch hitting for the pitcher, or telling him to lay down a bunt, is certainly not strategy.) The AL manager doesn't have that security blanket, he doesn't get that decision made for him. He's on his own - but he always has pitch counts to ease the burden on his brain.

It beats the hell out of actually making a decision, and leaving yourself open to all that second-guessing. And every time an AL manager lets a starter throw 120 pitches - never mind 130 - there will be second guessing. Galore..

James: Around 1984 ... USA Today began publishing box scores WHICH INCLUDED PITCH COUNTS FOR PITCHERS.
When you introduce hard facts into a discussion, it changes the discussion. The pitch counts introduced by USA Today became a weapon of the critics...Every time a pitcher got hurt, somebody could point to something that the manager had done to cause this injury.... 
It is my view that, once conventional wisdom about leaving pitchers in the game stampeded into a full-fledged retreat, it ran right past the point of reason, without any real effort to balance the discussion by taking account of the costs of pulling pitchers out of the game too early and too often.

Posnanski: Something happened around 2001, too.... while managers were definitely being more careful with pitchers throughout the 1980s and 1990s, it had not reached the point of absurdity. In 2000 managers let their starters throw 120 pitches or more about 12 percent of the time -- there were 454 instances of a pitcher throwing 120-plus pitches. That was more or less in line with the 1990s. But in 2001 the 120-plus pitch games were cut in half. By 2006 they were cut in half again. Last season there were only 71 games where a pitcher threw 120-plus pitches ... these games have become almost extinct. I do think it's fear-driven ... most of the managers I talk to around the game privately DESPISE the pitch count.

I don't think it's the pitch count they despise so much as the third degree that any manager is subjected to when he does anything that goes against the conventional wisodm of the day. And we have our own Conventional Wisdom, here in this shiny new milennium. Future generations will find much it incomprehensible, and they will shake their heads at our blind spots. Just as we do at those who came before us.

James: The problem with the move toward pitch counts was that there was never any logic or research that said that limiting a pitcher to 100 pitches would prevent injuries, as opposed to 130 pitches, or 130 for young pitchers and 160 for mature pitchers, or as opposed to getting the pitcher out of the game at the first sign of a problem, or as opposed to improving his training regimen. I am opposed to making decisions based on fear, and in favor of making decisions based on logic and research, and therefore I support what Nolan Ryan is trying to do.

And here's where I come in. Can we see, in the records so far, if Nolan Ryan and the Rangers are making any progress on this front? Run that Data Table!

Team          ST   0-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100-109 110-119 120-129 130-139   Avg   Most   ERA

BOSTON        63    1    0    9    15    22     15    1    0     100.7   120 4.89
YANKEES       63    6    1    6    13     18    16     3    0      98.4   123 4.89
KANSAS CITY   62    1    4   12    14     16    13     2    0      97.8   126 4.01
TEXAS        62    2    5    8     16     15     13     3     0     97.1   124 4.36
TAMPA BAY     65    2    5    4     24     24     5     1     0     96.9   120 4.67
DETROIT       63    3    4   18     13     12     10     2     1      95.5   132 4.05
SEATTLE       63    2    5   10     19     20    7     0    0      95.3   113 4.00
WHITE SOX     64    5    3    7     22     20    7     0    0      94.6   115 4.36
MINNESOTA     65    3    4   10     24     19    5     0    0      94.3   116 4.69
TORONTO       65    7    5    4     23     19    6    0    1      93.7   133 4.41
OAKLAND       62    1    6   14     23     16    2    0    0      93.5   111 4.44
CLEVELAND     66    4    5   16     19     14    7    1     0      93.1   122 5.45
ANGELS        62    5    1    9     20     18    9    0     0      92.5   119 4.12
BALTIMORE     63    6    4   10     19     19     5    0    0      90.7   113 5.59
 

All of this needs to be taken with several shakers of salt, of course. The best starters are always going to be allowed to throw more pitches than the other guys. There isn't much Dave Trembley can do about it - his starters have been bad, and he's been forced to go to the bullpen.

The team whose starters average the most pitchers per start is not the team Nolan Ryan is in charge of - but rather the team that Bill James works for. Boston's starters haven't actually been all that good so far in 2009 - but Beckett, Wakefield, Penny, and Matsuzaka all have lengthy resumes as Proven Quality Veterans. Boston and the Yankees are the only teams in the AL whose starters have thrown more than 100 pitches in more than half the team's games (Kansas City and Texas are split right down the middle - the starters have gone over 100 in 31 of 62 games.)

You will note that only two managers have allowed a starter to crack the 130 pitch barrier - Jim Leyland and Cito Gaston. That's old school, of course, and I don't think it's a coincidence that Gaston and Leyland are the only men in the AL who began their managerial careers back in the 1980s. (In fact, Terry Francona is the only other AL manager who was even managing in the 1990s.)

Both Gaston and Leyland have pulled the starter before 100 pitches in more than half the team's games. Gaston, as everyone knows, has a rotation which consists of Roy Halladay, a reliever converted in mid-season, and a changing cast of rookies. Jim Leyland's numbers are being shaped by the presence of Rick Porcello in his rotation. Porcello is being handled very carefully - he has yet to throw 100 pitches in a major league game (and has in fact thrown more than 90 pitches just twice.) And I'm fine with that.

Here's the data for individual pitchers, through games of June 15:

Pitcher      Team   ST   0-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100-109 110-119 120-129 130-139   Avg   Top

Millwood    TEX   13               1     1     1    8    2            102.1  121
Padilla    TEX   11          1    1     3    5     1                    98.4  115
McCarthy    TEX   11    1     1    2     3    2     1     1            95.2  124
Feldman    TEX   10    1     2    1     2    4                       92.2  109
Harrison    TEX    9               1     4    2     2                99.7  112
Holland    TEX    4          1    2     1                        86.0   91
Benson    TEX    2                         1     1                106.0  111
Mathis    TEX    1                     1                         98.0   98
Hunter    TEX    1                     1                         90.0   90

Pitcher    Team   ST   0-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100-109 110-119 120-129 130-139   Avg  Top
Weaver    LAA   13                1    3    7    2                  102.3  119
Saunders    LAA   13                3    4    2    4                  98.1  113
Palmer    LAA   8                2    1    3    2                  99.3  112
Lackey    LAA    7     1        1    1    3    1                  87.7  114
Loux    LAA    6           1    2    3                            88.3   99
Santana    LAA    6     1          4    1                        88.3  109
Moseley    LAA    3     1          1    1                       85.7  105
Ortega    LAA    3     1          1    1                       82.7  100
Adenhart    LAA    1                    1                          98.0   98
Escobar    LAA    1                  1                          92.0   92
Oliver    LAA    1     1                                      62.0   62

Pitcher    Team   ST   0-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100-109 110-119 120-129 130-139   Avg  Top
Hernandez    SEA   13                1    3    5    4                   102.5  113
Washburn    SEA   12                1    6    4    1                   99.0  110
Bedard    SEA   11                1    2    6    2                   101.5  112
Jakubauskas   SEA    8           2    3        3                      90.0  105
Vargas    SEA    7           1    1    4    1                      92.7  106
Silva    SEA    6           2    1    2    1                       86.0  101
Olson    SEA    4     1        1    2                           84.3   94
Rowland-Smith SEA    1                1                               82.0   82
Morrow    SEA    1     1                                      64.0   64

Pitcher    Team   ST   0-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100-109 110-119 120-129 130-139   Avg  Top
Braden    OAK   13                3    6    3    1                     96.2  111
Cahill    OAK   13     1    1        8     3                         93.2  105
Anderson    OAK   12          1    7    1     3                        90.1  109
Outman    OAK   11          2     2     2     4     1                     95.1  113
Eveland    OAK    5          1         3     1                        94.6  108
Mazzaro    OAK    3                1         2                         97.3  105
Gonzalez     OAK    2                1     1                           92.5   97
Gallagher     OAK    2          1         1                             84.5  92
Giese     OAK    1                     1                            93.0  93

Pitcher    Team   ST   0-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100-109 110-119 120-129 130-139   Avg  Top
Verlander     DET   13                1     2     2    6     2             108.7  122
Jackson    DET   13                2    4     5     1         1    103.0  132
Galarraga     DET   13     2    1    1     4    2    3                    90.8  118
Porcello     DET   12          1    9    2                             86.5   99
Willis     DET    7     1    1    2         3                         88.0  105
Miner    DET    4          1    2     1                            86.0   97
Bonderman    DET    1                1                                85.0   85

Pitcher    Team   ST   0-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100-109 110-119 120-129 130-139   Avg  Top
Blackburn     MIN   13          1    2     6    2     2                     97.1  111
Slowey     MIN   13     1    1     1    6    2    2                     94.3  114
Liriano     MIN   13          2    2    5    4                        92.2  104
Baker    MIN   12     1             5     5     1                    98.6  116
Perkins    MIN    8     1        3    1     3                         86.4  107
Swarzak    MIN    5                2     1    2                         93.0  103
Dickey    MIN    1                         1                        104.0  104
       
Pitcher    Team   ST   0-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100-109 110-119 120-129 130-139   Avg  Top                                                   
Buehrle     CHW   13                1    6    4     2                     99.2  114
Floyd     CHW   13          1     1     4    5    2                     98.6  111
Danks     CHW   12     1    1        2     6    2                    96.8  112
Colon     CHW   11     3         3     5                             82.7   98
Contreras     CHW    8     1         2    2     2    1                     93.0  115
Richard     CHW    7          1        3     3                         95.4  107

Pitcher    Team   ST   0-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100-109 110-119 120-129 130-139   Avg  Top
Greinke     KCR   13                     1    6     6                    108.0  116
Meche     KCR   13          1     3     2     2     4   1              99.3  120
Davies     KCR   13                2    4    3     3     1             102.5  126
Bannister     KCR   11                3     5     3                        95.5  108
Ponson    KCR    6          1    3         2                        89.2  104
Hochevar     KCR    5     1    1    1    2                            76.2   92
Ramirez     KCR    1          1                                     71.0   71
                                                           
Pitcher    Team   ST   0-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100-109 110-119 120-129 130-139   Avg   Top
Lee    CLE   14          1         2    5     5     1             105.6   122
Pavano     CLE   14     1         5     5     3                         88.9   103
Carmona     CLE   12     1    1     3     2    4     1                     93.0   114
Reyes     CLE    8     1    1    3     2    1                         85.4   106
Huff    CLE    6     1    1        3         1                    89.5   112
Sowers     CLE    5                3    2                            89.4    99
Laffey     CLE    4          1     1     1     1                        89.5   104
Ohka    CLE    1                    1                             96.0   96
Lewis     CLE    1                     1                            94.0    94
Jackson     CLE    1                1                                 88.0    88

Pitcher    Team   ST   0-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100-109 110-119 120-129 130-139   Avg   Top
Beckett     BOS   13                    2     4     6    1             109.3   120
Lester    BOS   13                1    1     7    4                    105.9   115
Wakefield     BOS   12                2    4    4     2                    98.2   112
Penny     BOS   12                4    4     2    2                     96.3   117
Matsuzaka     BOS    7     1         1    2     3                        87.7   102
Masterson    BOS    6                1    2     2     1                    99.7   112
                                                           
Pitcher    Team   ST   0-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100-109 110-119 120-129 130-139   Avg   Top
Sabathia     NYY   13                    2     3     6     2             110.1   123
Burnett    NYY   13                1    3     2     6     1            105.9   123
Pettitte     NYY   13                1     2    6     4                    104.7   116
Chamberlain   NYY   12     1         3     2     6                        90.3   108
Hughes     NYY    7     1         1     4    1                         89.1   101
Wang    NYY    5     4    1                                     64.8    73

Pitcher    Team   ST   0-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100-109 110-119 120-129 130-139   Avg   Top
Halladay     TOR   14     1            3    5     4         1    103.0   133
Tallet    TOR   12     2            5     4    1                    94.5   118
Richmond     TOR   10     1    3        2     4                         89.8   109
Romero     TOR    7                     5     2                         96.9   106
Purcey     TOR    5                1    2     1     1                     96.0   113
Janssen     TOR    5     1    2        1     1                         85.4   108
Cecil    TOR    4                1    2    1                        95.0   104
Ray    TOR    4                1     3                             90.8   95
Litsch     TOR    2     1                 1                        78.0   106
Burres     TOR    2     1         1                                67.0    80
                                                           
Pitcher    Team   ST   0-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100-109 110-119 120-129 130-139   Avg   Top
Shields     TBR   14                1    5    8                         99.2   107
Garza    TBR   13                    3    6    3     1            107.4   120
Sonnanstine   TBR   13     1    3        7    2                        89.2   108
Niemann    TBR   12     1    2    2     5    1     1                     88.0   110
Kazmir     TBR    9                1    4    3     1                    97.7   111
Price     TBR    4                         4                        104.8   108
                                                           
Pitcher    Team   ST   0-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100-109 110-119 120-129 130-139   Avg   Top
Guthrie     BAL   13     1             3    6     3                     97.9   113
Bergesen     BAL   11                3    4     3    1                    97.5   112
Uehara     BAL   10     1         3    4     2                        89.0   105
Eaton    BAL    8                     4     3    1                    100.3   112
Hendrickson   BAL    7     2    1         2     2                         77.4   103
Hill     BAL    6     1    1    2     1     1                        80.7   106
Berken     BAL    4          2    1         1                         84.8   102
Hernandez     BAL    2                    1    1                         99.0   108
Simon     BAL    2     1        1                                 57.0   89

So... the large fellow in pinstripes is the only AL pitcher averaging even 110 pitches per start. And of the 112 men who have started games in the AL this season, just 12 have been permitted to throw 120 pitches in a game.

They are: Roy Halladay, Edwin Jackson, Kyle Davies, Brandon McCarthy, C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Justin Verlander, Cliff Lee, Kevin Millwood, Gil Meche, Josh Beckett, and Matt Garza.

Sabathia, Verlander, and Millwood are the only men who have topped 120 pitches twice.
Pitch Counts? Still? | 8 comments | Create New Account
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Mike Green - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#201447) #
If you look at aggregated performance by pitch count in the AL for 2006-08, you'll find that pitching performance declines between pitches 26-50 and 51-100 but then improves significantly after pitch 100.  There is a selection process going on, obviously.

Do I have a problem with veteran who has thrown 120 pitches regularly without incident and no arm problem throwing 130 pitches regularly?  No.  It would be better to look for signs of tiredness rather than to make decisions based on pitch count.  Most pitchers are not in this category though.  The major problem with current pitching staff utilization, as I see it, is the performance loss after pitch 50 for most pitchers rather than the potential performance gain after pitch 110 for some pitchers.



ayjackson - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#201474) #
Interesting to see the AJ Burnett has thrown over 110 pitches in seven of thirteen starts this year.  I wonder how that'll work out.
92-93 - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#201476) #
It worked out fine when he was our horse and threw 110+ pitches in 15 out of 24 starts, and that becomes 18 if you make it 108+.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#201479) #
Not so much the previous 4-5 years, though.
Gerry - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#201485) #

Here is a very interesting read on players trying to make it to the major leagues.  It covers minor league pay and politics.

Some quotes:

"I have no school, I have no education -- I went to junior college for barely a year," said Cardinals rookie right-hander Blake Hawksworth

"It's very, very difficult," said Giants catcher Bengie Molina, a two-time Gold Glove Award winner whose patience was constantly tested through seven years in the Minors. "When you're busting your butt, and you're doing everything right, and you're putting up the numbers and working your way up, and all of a sudden -- because of the Draft choice, or because they've got a lot of money invested -- a guy is going to [play] over you and nobody pays attention to you. That's really tough."

Geoff - Thursday, June 18 2009 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#201504) #
I thought it would be the fourth start after throwing 130 pitches that was the true test, but of course that calculation didn't account for the damage of throwing another complete game after throwing a 130-pitch game. No matter how much one would like to argue against some stringent and arbitrary guideline for handling pitchers, it's difficult to challenge the establishment when pitchers continue to drop onto trainer's tables, surgeon's tables, and Magpie's tables and miss service time on the DL.

Yes, lots of money, lots of consumer demand for the best product, lots of 'organizational image' at stake for how management cares for its employees. Lots of excuses why to be careful, but when guys get injured that is the big trump card. Roy throws 130 pitches and a complete game and goes on the DL and executives everywhere chime that the Jays walked the tight rope and lost. Case closed. Didn't want to fall? Don't walk the tight rope; play it safe and keep your feet on flat ground. Once you see the 100 count, you are leaving the station and heading out on the rope. Pretty easy to see why the philosophy is so catchy.

I see the increasing concern for pitch counts as related to the increasing incidence of injury, otherwise known as III, by people who like bothersome acronyms as much as I do. Pitchers have always seen injuries, sure, but I believe the young arms are pushing themselves harder and to greater limits as expectations and salary have increased, as well as knowledge and attention to detail. So as guys try to throw harder and get greater and sharper breaks on thier pitches --- and less concerned with pacing themselves (they are young guys, after all) --- what would you expect to happen? Injuries and limits. III. Certainly not ask the kid not to try so hard or be so impressive.

Of course there will be guys who average less than 100 pitches and get injured, but when the league workhorse goes down it gives the 'Less is More' crowd all the ammunition they need. Will we ever see Roy allowed a 130-pitch effort again if he doesn't come back strong? Not necessarily 14-K strong, but at least keeping his ERA and WHIP in the same neighborhood on vanilla 100-pitch outings. As a posterboy for workhorse mentality, when Roy goes down, he brings down present and future generations of starters with him.

scottt - Thursday, June 18 2009 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#201553) #
So, anyone has a chart about pitch count and groin injuries?

Nice to see Accardo pick up a save. Somehow, Frasor seems to prefer the wins.

StephenT - Thursday, June 18 2009 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#201563) #
According to Craig Wright in his 1989 book "The Diamond Appraised", Nolan Ryan actually had a "light workload in his early years": 78 IP at age 18, 205 IP at age 19, 11 IP at age 20 (due to "military obligations"), 134 IP at age 21, 89 IP at age 22, 132 IP at age 23, 152 IP at age 24.  (This is from page 192 of the book.)

Wright's detailed research found that "there is a link between some degree of eventual arm trouble and a history of heavy workloads in the formative years" (page 211).  But he also noted that "there is nothing set in stone that X work level will lead to Y reaction".

His recommendations included restricting pitchers average pitch counts per start to under 100 below age 20, under 105 for ages 20-22, and under 110 for ages 23-24, though he thought a "single-game ceiling" of 130 was okay at ages 20-22 and 140 was okay at ages 23-24.
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