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Price, Cormier (4), Thayer (6), Balfour (7),  Choate (8), Wheeler (8), Howell (6-2) (10), Nelson (12)
Tallet, League (7), Accardo (8), Downs (9), Frasor (10), Camp (0-5) (11)
And what did I think of today's game?

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Baseball has been berry berry bad to me lately.
Rays 10, Blue Jays 9 or I Hate Baseball | 75 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
lexomatic - Saturday, July 25 2009 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#203188) #
that's just horrible. i forgot when the game started and checked in when it was 8-1 and decided not to listen. then it was 9-4 and now i see the bullpen screwed the pooch.

while it's a bit early to say (especially considering i haven't SEEN a game in awhile) but this team seems done... i think the guys might have emotionally shut down. what with all the halladay trade talk. i really don't think i can support the team as it's constituted. i don't think they have a chance to win anything. there's a whole bunch of guys i'd like to run outta town asap.
TamRa - Saturday, July 25 2009 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#203189) #
Words can't describe. I left home grinning about an 8-0 lead and come home to find a 9-9 tie.

I'm sensing the Jay may not win again in July. And I'm finding the bad juju around this team to be most disturbing. How you can have so many good players and get so many bad results as we have had over the last 4 years or so defied explanation.



lexomatic - Saturday, July 25 2009 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#203190) #
this team is a perfect example of less than the sum of their parts .
Jays2010 - Saturday, July 25 2009 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#203191) #
Another loss by less than 2 runs...another extra inning loss...another close loss to an AL East opponent...
jmoney - Saturday, July 25 2009 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#203192) #
I thought we got rid of B.J. Ryan? Why is he still closing games for us?
Gerry - Saturday, July 25 2009 @ 07:47 PM EDT (#203193) #

A few thoughts from under the band-wagon:

Passed balls contributed to the last two losses.  Errors by Overbay and Bautista contributed to losses earlier in the week.  Normally good defensive players are now coughing it up in turn.

Scott Downs has not been sharp since he was on the DL.

Many fans still cling to the dream that this team, with Halladay, can compete in 2010.  But when a team disappoints and under-achieves year after year then maybe it is our view of the team that is wrong.  Can this team realistically hope to compete in 2010 without career years and no injuries?

If Matt Holliday can bring a return of a premium prospect what should Marco Scutaro bring?  Both are free agents after this season.  According to Fangraphs Holliday has 16.5 runs of offensive value and has delivered 29.6 runs above replacement overall.  Scutaro has 11.5 runs of offensive value and 37.7 overall, so Scutaro is more valuable than Holliday.  Will we get a premium prospect back if Scutaro is dealt?

Rolen's similar numbers are 11.5 and 27.7.

Scutaro might be traded because he will be a free agent.  If Rolen is dealt then the team is truly dumping salary.  Rolen is playing well, under control for next season, and the Jays have no replacement in-house.

Checking BPro's adjusted standing I see the Jays were underperforming by 5 games this morning, third worst in the majors behind Washington and almost tied with the Indians.  This team is underperforming in a big way, they have scored 33 more runs thatn their opponents.

Cito is not a god.  I am not blaming Cito for the teams performance but the Cito magic disappeared in May.

I expect this team to go on a run after the trade deadline.  That is the Jays normal pattern and I expect this year to be no different.

I think JP is on shaky ground.  Not only is the team under-performing but the fans are getting restless.  Both Blair and Bastian said that they never saw so many anti-JP signs at Friday's game.  This team is all about the marketing and the marketing needs a new face to give fresh hope to the ticket buying fanbase.

christaylor - Saturday, July 25 2009 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#203194) #
What happened to this team? Ever since the 9 game losing streak they've been playing terrible ball. One graphic on today's broadcast probably explained what's happened. Up until the losing streak started AVG w/RISP .305 since .215.

Time to find out what the young players can do and overhaul this team in the off-season. I suspect Halladay won't be traded before the deadline, but he probably ought to be (along w/Rolen & Overbay) in the off-season.

Then again, all of this could be the frustration of watching the team blow a 9-1 lead talking.
Jays2010 - Saturday, July 25 2009 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#203197) #

Cito is not a god.  I am not blaming Cito for the teams performance but the Cito magic disappeared in May.

Some remnants of the Cito wizardry are still apparent:

He gave Lind a chance over Mencherson last year (big payoff); would that have happened with Gibbons? Possibly, but it sure didn't look that way. On the flip side, I can't condone his handling of Snider.

JP: I need a SS/leadoff hitter!

Cito: Done.

Without Cito giving Scoot the chance over Eck/Jmac, I can't see Scutaro EVER getting a chance as a starting SS, turning into an elite defensive player and taking base on balls out of the leadoff spot like there's no tomorrow.

Cito has also kept Rolen healthy (or at least it is reasonable to believe that Cito's handling of Rolen is better than Gibby's).

The "Cito effect" is probably over with (if it ever did exist)...but some of his decisions have been very good (from an outsider's perspective) and, on the whole, I'll take him over Gibbons. I still see this as a team with a decent shot at 85 wins this year (if Doc isn't traded). If Doc is traded, that Philly's package seems underwhelming (and yet the Phils rejected it). If Knapp isn't too seriously hurt, something like Drabek/Carrasco/Knapp/Brown & Donald seems like the kind of robbery that is fair to get the MVP of baseball. Adrian Gonzalez can go on the block tomorrow and the Yankees/Phillies and a bunch of other teams seemingly CAN't trade for him due to Teixiera & Howard. Same with Pujols if he were actually being shopped (though I'm sure the Yanks would find a way). EVERY team could use Halladay - he would become the number 1 on EVERY single team and playoff series are about aces, not backend starting depth (do the Phillies actually think their top 3/4 starters are good enough? Sure, their offense is loaded, but...). The price should be ridiculous.

Glevin - Saturday, July 25 2009 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#203199) #
"If Matt Holliday can bring a return of a premium prospect what should Marco Scutaro bring?  Both are free agents after this season.  According to Fangraphs Holliday has 16.5 runs of offensive value and has delivered 29.6 runs above replacement overall.  Scutaro has 11.5 runs of offensive value and 37.7 overall, so Scutaro is more valuable than Holliday.  Will we get a premium prospect back if Scutaro is dealt?"

No. The Jays would most likely get a C level prospect for Scutaro. He's 33 with a career OPS of .719. Holliday has been on of the better hitters in baseball over the past few years. According to Fangraphs, Scutaro is the 10th most valuable player in baseball but apart from the Scutaro family, I doubt many people agree, I think contenders would view him as a bottom of the lineup guy or even as a super-utility bench player rather than as a key cog to a championship and there certainly isn't a team in baseball that would think of Scutaro in the same class as Holliday.

I saw a rumour on Rotoworld of the Reds going after Rolen and offering Edwin Encarnacion. It would be a great trade IMO. Encarnacion is still only 26 and could be the Jays answer at 3B for a few decent and cheap years and I'd like to see Rolen traded before he breaks apart.
Thomas - Saturday, July 25 2009 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#203203) #

I don't think Scutaro should be traded. Well, I do if the team can get the right package for him, but I don't think that there will be an offer out there that makes sense to the club. I'd rather see the team hold onto Scutaro and offer him arbitration rather than deal him for a C prospect. I can't imagine Scutaro accepting - and it's not going to cripple the team if he does - and I think the picks would be worth the risk. Orlando Cabrera resulted in compensation picks last year and, even if Scutaro's offense has returned to normal, his defensive improvements alone should entice a club to give him a 2-year deal.

As for today's game, Downs hasn't been sharp since returning from the DL, but I don't blame Cito or the management for running him out there today. If there are clubs interested in him then they may well have wanted to see an effective and sharp Downs before considering trading for him and the team needs to give him the opportunity to prove he can be effective post-injury. I thought Cito should have removed Tallet from the game sooner. I supported removing him after 6 strong, but if not then he should have been out of there once a couple of guys got on in the 7th. He gave the team a really strong start after an extended layoff and I'd rather have seen his arm preserved than Cito trying to squeeze one more inning out of him. With Halladay's outing yesterday the bullpen was well rested and did not need to be protected.

Chuck - Saturday, July 25 2009 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#203204) #

Scutaro is the 10th most valuable player in baseball

Based on his performance to date this season and making the appropriate postional adjsutments, I find that assessment reasonable.

Now, two very valid questions are: how will he perform for the balance of 2009 (which immediate suitors would care about) and how will he perform in 2010 and beyond (which longterm suitors will care about in the off-season)?

Is it a given that at some point soon he'll turn back into a pumpkin? Or will he merely regress yet remain eminently useful at a very low-bar position? With his 115 OPS+ he can concede a lot of offense and still be an asset.

I would imagine that any team that acquired him for their final 60 games would be well rewarded. Scutaro's pre-2009 reputation will certainly minimize the return he fetches, but a team like Boston -- said to be eyeing Cabrera! -- could do itself a lot of good bringing him in.

Nick Holmes - Saturday, July 25 2009 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#203205) #
It's a one-run game. Blah.
The passed ball was a judgement call by the scorer, & Hill's called third strike was botched. These things happen.
This was an ugly game for both teams, best just to forget it & move on. The team is not as bad as they look right now.
No one will offer enough to get Roy or Scutaro. The Mets won't go for Wells. The Giants won't go for Rios. The Red Sox won't go for Rolen. Maybe Frasor goes to the Yankees.
That is all.
Jays2010 - Saturday, July 25 2009 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#203208) #

While I don't expect Scutaro to play like an MVP for the rest of his career, there are two things I think he has improved upon this year that make him valuable going forward: elite SS defense and an ability to draw walks. I'm sure his slugging will go down and so too will his OBP eventually, but Cito has mentioned a couple of times about a tweek to his batting adjustment that has helped him see better pitches, walk more etc. I think he has a good chance to have a decent (though not ridiculous) walk rate the next couple of years. A .750 OPS with excellent SS defense seems reasonable to expect from him in 2010 - I certainly would love for him to be retained for a couple of years...but it does not look like it's going to happen.

How about Rolen and Scutaro for Encarnacion and Bailey? Toss in Tallet or Purcey if necessary. The Reds could use some better SS production if they are making a run at a playoff spot (though they really shouldn't be trying to do that)...

snider - Saturday, July 25 2009 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#203209) #
Bit off topic but has anyone else noticed that Bautista's OBP > SLG?  What's the status on his contract, does he have any trade value (can't see how)?
Jays2010 - Saturday, July 25 2009 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#203210) #
Scott Richmond makes his (hopefully) lone rehab start tonight. In fantasy world, Halladay AND Richmond are traded for Kershaw and a slew of prospects. There is no way for the Dodgers to consider that a minimal upgrade for their rotation, is there? All of these packages for Doc (other than the Angels who seem like an ok match I guess) seem underwhelming. Kershaw is the potential ace with some ML success that I'd like to see in return for Doc. If it takes giving up Richmond as well, so be it. And it kills two birds with one stone: dumping the franchise pitcher and Canadian in one shot. Richard Griffin would have a field day.
Chuck - Saturday, July 25 2009 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#203212) #

Bit off topic but has anyone else noticed that Bautista's OBP > SLG? 

No offense, but this has been evident for much of the season.

Historically, Bautista has always drawn walks at a better than league average rate and added to that some pop, making him a 330/420 type player. Useful, but perhaps one stretched as a starter.

This year, however, he seems to be employing the Lance Blankenship strategy of expressly trying to draw walks at the expense of power. So while his 2009 mid-90s OPS+ is entirely in keeping with the past three seasons, it understates his value because it is OBP-heavy (OPS+ equally weights OBP and SLG which is its biggest flaw).

His walk rate is slowing down as the season marches on, perhaps a sign that opposition pitchers are cottoning on to his strategy.

Glevin - Saturday, July 25 2009 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#203213) #
"Scutaro is the 10th most valuable player in baseball

Based on his performance to date this season and making the appropriate postional adjsutments, I find that assessment reasonable."


You think that it is reasonable to say that Scutaro has been one of the top-10 players in all of baseball this year? Seriously? Better than Kevin Youkilis for example who ranks 3rd in OBP and 4th in SLG in the AL while playing both 1B and 3B? For players with 250 or more PAs, Scutaro os 85th in OPS. (35th in OBP). He's been the 7th best offensive SS in baseball. He's ranked ahead of Jason Bartlett who has had a way better year. (Scutaro is ranked high because he has, for some reason, the highest "replacement level" value as if Scutaro would be the single hardest player in baseball to replace.) This is what happens with unified statistics. They get absurd because they factor in the measurable (offensive stats) with whatever they want. (defense, positional scarcity, etc...)

"Now, two very valid questions are: how will he perform for the balance of 2009 (which immediate suitors would care about) and how will he perform in 2010 and beyond (which longterm suitors will care about in the off-season)?"

This is is career high in OBP and in SLG both by a wide margin and at age 33. Maybe he has learned to play at a different level entering his mid-30's, but I doubt anyone will risk a good prospect to find out. He has been a great surprise for the Jays and may result in them getting some value for him where they wouldn't a year ago. That, in itself, is great.

Chuck - Saturday, July 25 2009 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#203216) #
He's ranked ahead of Jason Bartlett who has had a way better year.

Bartlett's rate stats are certainly superior, but Scutaro has about 50% more plate appearances. A large part of Scutaro's value this season has been the sheer volume of playing time has has logged.
Chuck - Saturday, July 25 2009 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#203217) #
Oh, and I agree that Youkilis deserves bonus marks for playing two positions, something the Fangraphs model cannot adequately capture.
Jays2010 - Saturday, July 25 2009 @ 11:25 PM EDT (#203220) #

Oh, and I agree that Youkilis deserves bonus marks for playing two positions, something the Fangraphs model cannot adequately capture.

Scutaro can play like 6 or 7 positions...just because he hasn't doesn't mean he can't. Would he be more valuable if his elite defense could travel around the diamond. Sure. But we really haven't needed him to replace any of our other infielders (what with Bautista and the fact that we have had a surprisingly healthy group of hitters this year). Let's not forget that the amount that Scoot has played at SS this year has basically made himself his own backup...and that backup has like a .380 OBP with GG defence.

If Scoot would take 2 years at $10 mill...maybe even slightly more...I'd gamble on the chance that he can provide a nice ROI with his nice defence and walk rate.

Ron - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 12:27 AM EDT (#203223) #
My head is spinning from all the Halladay talk. Heyman said the Jays told the Yankees they want both Joba and Hughes plus top prospects in a trade. If the Yanks offered Hughes, Jackson, and Montero, I would take that deal in a heart beat.

The asking price of the Angels (Saunders, Wood, Aybar, O'Sullivan) is a 60 cents on the dollar trade so I hope that doesn't happen. The Rangers have offered up 2 of their top prospects in a trade. If those names were Feliz and Smoak, I would be really interested.

A player the Jays should target is Chris Snyder. He's under contract for a few more seasons with a club option and has lost his starting job to Montero. I'm not sure what the D-Backs are looking for though.

TamRa - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 12:29 AM EDT (#203224) #
Encarnacion reportedly has pretty sucky defense at 3B. I'd certainly want more than him alone for Rolen.

Can anyone tell me why the Jays think they need multiple close starting pitchers in any deal?

Let's says Doc is gone and McGowan doesn't come back and they don't believe in Purcey at all and Mills only marginally.

You still have supposedly well regarded guys in Marcum, Romero, Listch, Cecil, and Zep and at least three options (Richmond who's done nothing to provoke doubt, Ray and Mills) as options for #5/6. I completely understand why you want an Ace level guy but what's the urgency to add another mid-back rotation guy (i.e. Happ for instance)

I'd be pretty obsessed about SS and C and 3B and even 1b/DH/LF before I would that second pitcher.

By the way, Jays apparently countered the Angels with a request for Saunders+Wood+Aybar+one of Reckling/Bourjos/O'Sullivan

What do we think of Saunders? 28 and middling. now...he was very good last year but why in the heck would we prefer him to Weaver?

Give me Weaver/Wood/Aybar and a prospect and I can live with it.

Again, I have no idea why we keep asking for mid-back rotation starters.

 

Jays2010 - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 12:32 AM EDT (#203225) #

Completely random thought for how to handle Doc (since I am holding steady to the delusion that the Jays can contend in 2010). DO NOT trade him this year or in the offseason. If Doc is traded, do it at next year's trade deadline. Now if Doc REALLY wants to be a good JP/Blue Jay soldier, this is what he agrees to:

Doc receives a chance at an extra $5 million in incentives in 2010 based on wins, innings, playoff performance and other achievements that cannot be hit until the last 2 months of the season (i.e. a minimum of 200 innings, 17 wins, playoff wins etc). For this incentive, Doc has to agree to another contract stipulation: if he is traded at the 2010 trade deadline, he AUTOMATICALLY receives a one year, $20 mill extension for 2011. Hence, any team that gets him receives Doc for 2 titles runs, same as this year. The team that acquires him are responsible for ALL of the incentives since none of them can be reached until after next July.

Now, I am of the opinion that the Jays will NOT receive any extra value for the fact that Doc is currently well below market value for a true ace. If market value is maybe $22-25 million for Doc, he is well below that and I think a team such as the Phillies would give up the exact same package if Doc were $20 mill/yr as opposed to $15 mill. With my proposal, 1 1/3rd years of Doc would cost $5.25 mill + $5 mill in incentives (if reached) for a team in 2010 and $20 million for 2011. That seems like a fair price for 2 title runs to me, since the acquiring team would be a contender obviously.

Also, it seems like Doc would probably go to a few teams right now but his preference may be the east coast; if this is true, he can invoke his NTC if he doesn't want to spend the end of 2010 and all of 2011 in LA, for example, just like he can now and STILL receive his $5 mill in 2010 incentives if reached (well, the innings and wins incentives) from the Blue Jays. So the only thing Doc loses is his ability to be traded at next year's deadline to a place he would only want to pitch for half a season. And surely this can be amended at next year's deadline if that is the ONLY way to get some value back for the Jays.

Now, obviously this benefits the Jays a lot more than Doc (unless Doc ONLY agrees to a trade at next year's deadline if the 2011 extension is voided)...but, really, he does not lose ANYTHING if he does not want to. If he wants to explore free agency after 2010, he simply does not accept a trade at next year's deadline OR he tells the GM that he will only accept a trade contingent upon the 2011 extension being voided and he still collects his 2010 incentives.

I am sure there is a simpler way to achieve the same goal, which is to keep Doc for a 2010 run and still maximize the return if he is traded next year, but this is all I have so far. It would take a miracle for all of this to happen...but, what exactly is there to gamble on other than Doc's honour and loyalty to the Blue Jays organization? I have way more faith in this than in the organization as a whole, the GM, the playoff chances in the AL East...

TamRa - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 04:31 AM EDT (#203227) #
I can't run the data tables the way Magpie can but I just spent a couple of hours with the game logs, breaking the offensive production down over 4 periods which seem rather distinct to me (in terms of results):

April 6-May 18 (27-14)
.289 - .358 - .463 - .818

May19-May 27 (0-9).
258 - .312 - .346 - .658

May 28 - June 26 (14-11) << That's a pace for 90 wins
.273 - .344 - .451 - .795

June 27 - July 25 (6-17)
.237 - .287 - .404 - .691

I blame Denobo.


Seriously, it's been said "since the nine gamer" but really, the Jays were fine on June 26 and the nine gamer was a fluke (at that point)...

Less than a week later Rosenthal's column went to press and the tailspin errupted. Is it possible the team lost heart when they thought the management had lost faith or is it coincidence? Cart/horse?


Dave Till - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 07:17 AM EDT (#203228) #
This game only rates a 9 out of 10 on the Jays Fan Misery Index. To earn a 10, all of the above has to happen, plus a starting pitcher has to become injured.

The loss didn't really bother me; I gave up hope for this year long ago.

Jim - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#203229) #
Maybe the Jays should just handcuff Halladay to the boiler in Riccardi's basement back in Mass.  He's only allowed to leave J.P.'s basement on days that he pitches.

Can we please stop with the 'creative' ridiculously lopsided Halladay extensions?  He's earned his free agency at the end of 2010 and he's going to see what his options are.  Just because he and his wife have said that money isn't the top consideration, just like the Jays shouldn't trade him for pennies on the dollar he's not going to sign for pennies on the dollar. 

He's the best pitcher in baseball and this could be his last big contract, it's pretty clear he's going to see where that takes him.  He wants to win and while some here are holding onto the delusion that this team could win in 2010, Halladay himself has pretty much said that he disagrees.

Chuck - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#203230) #
Scutaro can play like 6 or 7 positions...just because he hasn't doesn't mean he can't. Would he be more valuable if his elite defense could travel around the diamond.

While Scutaro is certainly versatile, he couldn't possibly score any higher than he has this year given that all his defensive innings have been at the most important position. As a backup player, his versatility would be valuable. As a starting shortstop, not so much.

Youkilis, on the other hand, deserves a bonus -- unquantifiable, perhaps -- when compared to his peers at first base. When he plays third base, he is adequately manning a more difficult defensive position, an ability that none of his first base peers can also claim. His ability to play third base meant that Epstein could ostensibly back up Lowell with a first baseman, which he did when he acquired LaRoche (Adam, not Andy).
grjas - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#203231) #
Great picture. Sums it up well.

Now a few Jays should change their walk on music to some Smashing Pumpkin tunes.

timpinder - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#203233) #

The Jays have rejected the Phillies' counter proposal of Happ, Carrasco, Donald and Taylor for Halladay.  Well I would hope so.  The Phillies aren't going to get Halladay by taking their two best prospects (Drabek and Brown) out of the mix.  I think a compromise of Drabek, Taylor, Donald and Carrasco/Marson would be acceptable, but not ideal.  I'm starting to think there might be better trade partners out there and that we might be shocked if or when a deal is struck.  I'm guessing the Brewers are going to make a late push.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4356851

TamRa - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#203234) #
Can we please stop with the 'creative' ridiculously lopsided Halladay extensions? He's earned his free agency at the end of 2010 and he's going to see what his options are. Just because he and his wife have said that money isn't the top consideration, just like the Jays shouldn't trade him for pennies on the dollar he's not going to sign for pennies on the dollar. He's the best pitcher in baseball and this could be his last big contract, it's pretty clear he's going to see where that takes him. He wants to win and while some here are holding onto the delusion that this team could win in 2010, Halladay himself has pretty much said that he disagrees.

Interesting that you disapprove of speculation unless you are doing the speculating. Lighten up. We are just as entitled to hold out hope as you are to give up hope.

Realistic hope or not, doesn't matter.

Jays2010 - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#203235) #

He wants to win and while some here are holding onto the delusion that this team could win in 2010, Halladay himself has pretty much said that he disagrees.

When did Roy Halladay say this? I heard him say "a bunch of things need to go right" in the AL East (just like JP), but I don't recall him stating that the Jays can't win in 2010. And even if Roy believes that, so what? Wasn't VW praising some new tool to measure defense even though we can all agree that he is not a good CF anymore? Whether or not the Blue Jays contend in 2010 has nothing to do with your interpretation of Roy Halladay's remarks.

What did they show before the game...that the Jays are like 10 games below .500 in games decided by less than 2 runs. If they are .500 in these games (and their strong run differential certainly suggests that they could have a much nicer record) they are 6 games above .500. If the reverse were true and the Jays were 10 games above .500 in these games, they are 16 games over .500 (which would require a disproportionate amount of good luck). A bunch of close losses to the AL East does not mean that the Jays, with a 2010 roster that should be better than the 2009 roster, cannot contend in 2010...

greenfrog - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#203237) #
The way Romero and Cecil have been pitching of late, I can see why Keith Law recommends the Jays keep Doc, acquire a bat or two, and make a run in 2010. A starting four of Doc, Marcum, Romero and Cecil has the potential to be very good (barring injuries, which seems to be a major bar for Toronto to clear these days).

Personally, I don't think the Jays can compete next year unless they're willing to spend more money to hang on to Scutaro and Rolen and somehow add some offense, but I can see Law's logic, especially if the alternative is a Santana-like return for Halladay.
jmoney - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#203238) #
Unfortunately, with the lack of committment from the ownership this team won't compete as long as Vernon Wells gives the team the performance he's giving now. Soaking up the dollars he'll be making the next five or so years.
Jim - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#203239) #
Keeping up hope and dreaming up ridiculous scenarios that have no chance of happening are two separate things.  He told them he's going to test free agency, if he's told him that why would he sign a ridiculous contract extension?  The 31st, this offseason, next July 31st or the last day of the 2010 season.  Halladay will be gone after one of those milestones. 
Alex Obal - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#203240) #
Joel Cohen's Law of Prediction:
"The more confidence someone places in an uncomfortable prediction of what will happen in human affairs, the less confidence you should place in that prediction. If a prediction comes with an estimated range of error, then the narrower that range, the less you should believe it."

Roy Halladay wants to see where the Blue Jays will be after 2010. Admittedly, at present, it doesn't look like they will be in a good situation. But you never know for sure.
Jim - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#203241) #
The Blue Jays are totally outclassed on the field by New York, Boston and Tampa.   The fact that a handful of people here don't want to deal with that reality doesn't change it. 

This is a fourth place team that is spinning it's wheels going nowhere.  If they leave this roster in place next year it will be a fifth place team spinning its wheels going nowhere.

New York and Boston have:
A.  Better Major League Rosters
B.  Better Farm Systems
C.  More then two times more money to spend

How exactly can that gap be closed between now and next season?  I see posts like.. well if Cecil and Marcum and Zep and etc..

That argument ignores the years they are getting from Halladay, Romero, Rolen, Hill, Scutaro and Lind.  You don't get to lock into their 2009 performances and only get improvement from other spots and no regression from these six. 

They are 15-18 games worse then 2 teams in their own division.  Two teams that are more likely to improve next year then the Blue Jays are.

It's good that you guys want to go down with the ship, but if your solution for the future is a contract extension to Halladay that includes things that aren't even allowed in the CBA it might be time to go back to the drawing board.
TamRa - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#203242) #
The way Romero and Cecil have been pitching of late, I can see why Keith Law recommends the Jays keep Doc, acquire a bat or two, and make a run in 2010. A starting four of Doc, Marcum, Romero and Cecil has the potential to be very good (barring injuries, which seems to be a major bar for Toronto to clear these days).

I tend to agree, though I admit days like yesterday are making me schitzo in terms of swinging back and forth from "build on this team" to "trade them all!"


Personally, I don't think the Jays can compete next year unless they're willing to spend more money to hang on to Scutaro and Rolen and somehow add some offense, but I can see Law's logic, especially if the alternative is a Santana-like return for Halladay.

I have the Jays at about $95 million next year if Frasor and Tallet are traded and Scutaro makes $5 mil (also left off Bautista)

I think if your line-up looks like this you have some potential even before/withut additions:

1. Scutaro - serious potential to drop off in overall production but if he remains at least above average on defense and with a .360 or better OPS he's an asset. If the offense goes off a cliff, I'd say we resign ourselves to Rios not turning into a30 homer middle-of-the-order guy and bat him leadoff even if he doesn't have the on-base skills

2. Rolen - I think this is where he fits best offensively. In fact, if I'm Cito, once I see how the roster is constructed on August 1 I'd probably consider flipping Rolen and Hill then.

3. Lind - Theoretically possible he could slip, but not logical to assume so.

4. Hill - No, he's not likely to threaten 40 homers ever again, but if he settles into a 30 homer neighborhood he fits well here.

5. Wells - one has to hope that in a new season he could maybe shake the home mojo that's going on this year

6. Overbay - I'd actually like to see 1B improved upon but as long as he's here...hopefully there's a good platoon partner on the roster.

7. Rios - One would like for him to live up to the skills but even underachiving, he's got enough bat for #7

8. Snider - how good will he half to be to be a better than average 8th hitter. if he busts out you can move him up to #6 or #5 even.

9. Catchers

If everyone here played up to their talents, that's enough offense to support that starting staff just fine. the eternal question with this seemingly cursed team though is - will they?

The point is, other than holding on to Scutaro, and paying all the raises which are due, the team doesn't need a big commitment of cash - they just need to do what they are capeable of. I would certainly welcome a judicious upgrade, particularly if a slugging 1B/DH was available - it could only help. But there's nothing there beside the catcher that screams for an offensive upgrade in terms of talent - it's simply a matter of ability producing results.

Which is why this team is so maddening.

Jim - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#203243) #
Here's the thing, they aren't cursed, they just aren't good enough.
Alex Obal - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#203244) #
Hey, I'm not saying the team isn't in a bad spot. I'm just saying saying Doc is 100% guaranteed to leave by winter 2010 is unnecessarily bold and strident.

If the Jays try to contend next year, any success they have will almost certainly be as a pitching-and-defense juggernaut similar to last year's team, plus Snider. Scutaro and Rolen have to maintain their strong defensive performance, and centerfield needs to improve dramatically. It's a lot to ask.
Ryan Day - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#203245) #
This is a fourth place team that is spinning it's wheels going nowhere.  If they leave this roster in place next year it will be a fifth place team spinning its wheels going nowhere.

So, for the love of god, why do you bother? What possible enjoyment can you get from following a team that you believe has no hope whatsoever to compete any time soon or any likelihood to get better?
Jim - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#203247) #
So if you aren't an optimist blind to the reality the team faces you should stop being a fan.  Got it .

Rogers loves people like you.  No matter how mediocre the product, you believe the Playoffs are right around the corner. 



Mylegacy - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#203248) #
Baseball, like life, is mostly lived in "Delusion."

I was deluded that my boss would give me the promotion over Harold - he didn't. My two best friends are deluded in that they both believe in different Invisible Spaghetti Flying Monsters (IFSM) with whom they wish to spend eternity. I no longer believe in Spaghetti Flying Monsters - visible or invisible - my "Delusion" is that the Jays will contend in 2009 AND 2010 and YEARLY thereafter.

It's MY DELUSION - and I have Faith. However, just like my two friends and their IFSM's - don't press me to hard to provide you with with enough facts to substantiate my "Faith."

Jays2010 - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#203251) #

Jim, the product is not mediocre. The results may be due to the division and playoff format. That is not going to change for a while, obviously. But this has been around a top 10 team in baseball (and even better the last year and a half) since 2006 when JP got a payroll hike into the middle of the pack. Every time you see someone evaluating the club they do agree that a lot of stuff has to break right for a playoff spot...but the only ones who call them mediocre are Richard Griffin and myopic fans (or anti-fans) such as yourself. How many times have we heard Keith Law, Heyman, Crasnick, Bastian etc. say that they could win the AL Central or hear a random scout say that they would win the NL. It just so happens that 4 of the top 8-10 teams in baseball are in the AL East - let's not go overboard and act like this team is "average" because that simply is not true. Heck, a balanced schedule this year would have precluded many of these 2 runs or less losses to AL East foes and teams like Twins and White Sox would have looked "mediocre" for the last few years with a balanced schedule. Frankly, the fact that the top 4 teams in the AL for the last year and a half have all been in the AL East masks how good each one of the 4 teams actually is.

Kazmir is by no means a lock to be a top of the rotation starter going forward (obviously), Pena and Crawford are gone after 2010 (if they are not traded sooner), Iwamura is the same, Bartlett after 2011...let's see how long guys like Zobrist can keep playing over their heads and considering how poor Tbay has been from turning high ceiling (according to BA) prospects into productive ML players (other than their high draft picks) I am not sure how much better Tampa can be without a willingness to increase payroll by maybe $10-15 million every year as their 0-6 players require raises and other players creep closer to free agency...

I still do not see what is so special about Baltimore. Their team could be good, but let's see them develop some pitching first. And if the Jays do, in fact, move Halladay and others such as Rolen I think their is a good chance that their young talent will be as good or better than Baltimore's.

So, yes, the Jays play in the AL East...we all know that already.

 

92-93 - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#203254) #
"If the Jays try to contend next year, any success they have will almost certainly be as a pitching-and-defense juggernaut similar to last year's team, plus Snider. Scutaro and Rolen have to maintain their strong defensive performance, and centerfield needs to improve dramatically. It's a lot to ask."

Once you start bringing back Scutaro and Barajas as FAs (as opposed to taking the 3 early picks) you are talking about a 100m payroll. Halladay, Wells, Rios, and Hill make 9m more as group next year, and Marcum enters arb1 and will get at least another 2m. You also start paying a bunch of middle relievers in their later arbitration years, each for more than a million more than the minimum. It adds up, and there's been no indication that Rogers is prepared to take payroll back up 25% just to field practically the exact same roster.
Jim - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#203256) #
Myopic and anti-fan.  That's gold.  My eyesight is good enough to read the standings and they could be from any season of the Riccardi era.  Cooked and roadkill by August 1st is a recurring theme.

This team would not win the NL.  Can we get real?   They would compete in either Central division but they are under .500 for a reason.  It's not like if they were dropped in the NL they would turn into the 98 Yankees.  Quotes from nameless scouts?  Those hold as much water as Mylegacy's claim that the 2009 Jays are going to compete.

I get the degree of difficulty.  I also think it's a reason to be bold and make decisions to build a team that can compete and not just settle to finish fourth and try to claim that you deserve a trophy for being the 10th best team in baseball.

If you don't think Baltimore is ascending then I don't know what you are watching.  Weiters, Jones, Markakis, Tillman, Matsuz are the kind of premium talents you need to compete.  You can't put together a team of solid average players and try to take down Boston and New York.  You need a top heavy roster like Tampa has and like Baltimore is building.   Baltimore also hasn't sunk 40% of their payroll in Wells and Rios going forward.  Do you think that's an advantage?

This team is in serious trouble, but as long as the majority of fans stand for what they are doing it will never change.  Salvation is just around the corner, they only lose every game by 2 runs!



Alex Obal - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#203258) #
Yeah, that was basically implied. It's going to be really tough to contend in 2010 without increasing payroll. Then again, it's also going to be tough to convince Doc to stick around without increasing payroll. I guess you could move Overbay and Rios, hopefully without eating money, and then try to build from there, either cheaply or extravagantly.
Geoff - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#203260) #
Anyone hear any good speculation on what the Rays would have to give up to get Roy? I've seen talk about the Yankees, Red Sox, and all the other usual suspects but nothing on the Rays.

Is there some very good reason why they are precluded from most discussions? (other than being in the same division, which hasn't completely held back speculation on the Big Two.)

It's not like Tampa hasn't got interesting young cheap pieces. i.e. Price, Beckham, etc. Or is it that they are well known to be committed to player development to stay alive and under no circumstance would they try to go for it by buying a Big Piece mid-season by mortgaging their future?

Or perhaps they have been explored at almost every turn and I've completely missed it.

Dave Till - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#203261) #
Was looking at the standings just now. Food for thought: the Jays lead all of baseball in losses in 1-run games and in extra-inning losses (18 and 10, respectively). They have also played more extra inning games than any team in baseball.

If you hypothesize that close games and extra inning games are something of a crapshoot, this suggests that, as usual, the Jays are dealing with bad luck. I wonder whether the Jays should get rid of J.P. just because he is too unlucky to be a general manager. Let's get somebody with better karma in here. It might keep Certain Sportswriters quiet.

I'm finding it hard to be optimistic about the future. The Jays just don't have a lot of hitting help coming up from the farm (though they do have a fling of young pitchers), and they're not likely to spend the money to fill the holes. And now Doc wants out. It's not quite as bad as the year when Erik Hanson was the #1 starter, but it's getting there. And the two 800-pound gorillas in the division are continuing to go stomp stomp stomp.

Mick Doherty - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#203262) #
My understanding is that TBR is chasing Cliff Lee, not Doc, and that's certainly a defensible position. Jamey Newberg reports that the Rays are trying to get TEX involved as a third team in the deal, but with no specifics mentioned -- I imagine TEX would prefer to have Lee over anything the Rays could offer!
TamRa - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#203263) #
Here's the thing, they aren't cursed, they just aren't good enough.

Reasonable people can disagree.

If you don't think Baltimore is ascending then I don't know what you are watching.  Weiters, Jones, Markakis, Tillman, Matsuz are the kind of premium talents you need to compete.  You can't put together a team of solid average players and try to take down Boston and New York.  You need a top heavy roster like Tampa has and like Baltimore is building.   Baltimore also hasn't sunk 40% of their payroll in Wells and Rios going forward.  Do you think that's an advantage?

I spent my afternoon wasting time at THT.

Here's what I found. I took every player that every team had drafted from 2002 on who had at least 50 IP or 75 at bats, and looked up their career win shares.

Coming into this season, here are the top 10 teams in terms of the totals produced by players they drafted and signed:

A's - 307 (9 players, 7 in double figures)  <<Top 5 point leaders now play for other teams.
Dodgers - 241 (11, 7)
D'Backs - 241 (12, 7)
Boston - 216 (13, 7)
Blue Jays - 195 (15, 7)
Giants - 193 (17, 6)
Brewers - 193 (7, 4)
Atlanta - 179 (9, 5)
Rockies - 166 (11, 7)
Mets - 130 (6, 5)


Rays? Tied with the Tigers for #14
O's? You really don't want to know

So that whole "Tampa is a player development machine and the Jays not so much" riff?

Umm...yeah. Not really.

Not so far at least.


If one assumes that Kaz/Shields/Garza/Price/Sonnanstine is a lock to be better than Doc/Romero/Marcum/Cecil/Listch(Richmond/Zep whoever) in 2010 one does so out of blind negativism, not objective analysis.

there  IS such a thing as over-correcting for homerism.

COULD they be? Sure. In baseball almost no pitcher is predictable (Look at Kazmir's 2009 for an example) but sure thing or remotely close to it? Not at all.

I won't even stoop to comparing the potential 2010 O's rotation. Good prospects or no...I remind you how long it has taken for last year's sure things Buhholz, Chamberlain, Hughes, and Kennedy to take the league by storm. I could point to a ton of other great young pitchers who took a year or two to really get to be fearsome. Just because Tillman and Matsuz are great prospects doesn't mean there's a solid timeline for when that day comes when you tremble to face them back to back - if it ever does.

You listed five potentially great players for the Oriles. That's wonderful. who's gonna be the other three starters? Whaty's the bullpen going to look like? Who's the SS? 3B? 1B?

Five players? Whoop de doo. Who has a better OPS right now, Jones, Markakis, or Lind?
Roberts or Hill? (and who's younger?)

Will Snider have a better OPS than Markakis or Jones in, for instance, 2011 or 2012? It's sure as heck not unreasonable.

I admit if we let Doc go for less than his value - and it sure seems we won't - then I'm prone to be depressed about the future...but I recognize that as emotionalism much more than analysis.

Watch out for over-compensation.

Alex Obal - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#203264) #
And why is there one guy on every single team who has "Turn My Swag On" by Soulja Boy Tell 'Em as his at-bat music? Lame. I think his new album is solid, not as giddy as the first one therefore not as good but perfectly okay, but of all the iSouljaBoy songs to catch on belatedly among the baseball fraternity... that one?! Soulja can nail lots of moods but smug isn't one of them.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#203267) #
Agreed. I don't see Rogers spending the money to field a contender in 2010. The ideal scenario is probably trading Doc for a "wow" package, letting Scutaro walk in exchange for the draft picks, and rebuilding around the good young players on the roster. The problem is that teams don't seem to be willing to step up and provide a hefty return for Doc. There are lots of possible reasons for this:

- Teams not recognizing just how valuable 1.5 years of Doc-in-his-prime is
- Teams overvaluing their own prospects
- Teams under financial constraints (e.g., Texas)
- New economic reality in baseball, i.e., $20M doesn't go as far as it used to and blue-chip young talent is valued more than ever
- Teams recognizing that Toronto is somewhat desperate to rebuild and/or unload big contracts
greenfrog - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#203268) #
Correction: I meant $20M arguably goes *further* than it used to (for example, in 2009 you could get a year of Bobby Abreu for $5M).
TamRa - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#203269) #
Excerpted from Neyer's Sweet Spot entry on the M's

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/sweetspot

It wasn't all that long ago that I (and apparently the Mariners) figured Balentien had a decent chance of someday becoming a useful player. Considering his career Triple-A line (.283/.359/.534) and his age (just turned 25), it's certainly too early for Balentien to give up on himself, or for "baseball" to give up on him. It was probably time for the Mariners, though. Since, you know, actual humans have to run the team. The only problem is that Balentien did bat right-handed...

the Mariners have three possibly improvable "hitter positions": DH, first base, and left field.

Fortunately, they've got five hitters who can fill those positions: Saunders, Langerhans, Ken Griffey Jr., Russell Branyan, and Mike Carp.

Unfortunately, all five of those hitters bat left-handed. Just one right-handed batter -- though two would be preferable -- would give Don Wakamatsu a great deal more flexibility.

If the M's don't get a better offer for Balentin, why not see if they will bite on Ruiz and a inconsiquential prospect like Rei Gonzalez or Randy Boone?

If we're not going to use Ruiz, we might as well see if they think he'd help.

VBF - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#203270) #
I thought it was interesting that Bob McCown (who has been ripping Rogers the past week) mentioned that they had tried to get a Rogers head honcho on the air to talk Jays but that the response was that there would be an announcement made at the end of the season, or something to that extent.

Given Rogers pattern on spending money and taking money away, I don't think anyone can predict what is coming next. They could get the notion that the only way to make more money is to compete financially, or do the complete opposite. I guess we'll have an idea based on whether it comes before or after season ticket renewal letters get sent out.

Even if you trade Doc for a package like Joba, Hughes and Montera (not that it would happen), you still put yourself in a situation to compete next year if you plan on spending money.

Jays2010 - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#203271) #

Given Rogers pattern on spending money and taking money away, I don't think anyone can predict what is coming next. They could get the notion that the only way to make more money is to compete financially, or do the complete opposite.

This is what is so frustrating. All indications were that the Jays would spend b/w $110-$120 million once VW's contract spiked in 2010. And now it looks like it may be down to $80 million, though Ricciardi told Rosenthal today in regards to moving Doc that "we are under no financial crunch whatsoever. We don't have to move any money at all. We can bring the whole team back and not have to worry about money." Imagine the Red Sox trying to compete by scaling payroll down to $100 million after being around $140 million. It just does not work and Ricciardi is being made the scapegoat here, in my opinion.

I am not sure if "bringing back" includes Scutaro and Barajas or a similar $2-3 million catcher. That would mean somewhere in the neighbourhood of $100 million next year (which would have been closer to $110 with Burnett). I guess for now all there is to hope for is that Beeston is "convinced" that the team, with 6 somewhat established starters (Doc/Marcum/Romero/Richmond/Cecil/Zep) is an impact bat away from contention. And then Beeston needs to convince Rogers.

This still seems fishy if a package of Happ/Drabek/Brown is enough to change the entire direction of the Jays for next year and beyond. I'm with KLaw: the Phillies don't have a single player impactful enough to consider moving Doc without a huge bounty of players coming back like the Dodgers do with Kershaw, for example. My bet is on Doc staying and, hopefully, that is an indication that Rogers will gamble on contention in 2010.

Even if the Jays are not close enough in 2010...considering that the A's got Wallace for Holliday and the Tribe got LaPorta for CC...it's not like the Jays will get diddly if they wait until next year's deadline.

TamRa - Sunday, July 26 2009 @ 11:57 PM EDT (#203272) #
I'm skeptical that's really what we asked for. I don't think that's close to a "wow" package.


92-93 - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 12:00 AM EDT (#203273) #
"Even if the Jays are not close enough in 2010...considering that the A's got Wallace for Holliday and the Tribe got LaPorta for CC...it's not like the Jays will get diddly if they wait until next year's deadline."

Exactly. Drabek/Brown/Happ is the sort of deal I expect to get for Halladay next trade deadline. CC commanded quite a bit and was off to a mediocre start and had arguably a little less of a track record. If somebody wants Halladay for that extra year, they damn well better pay for it.
Jays2010 - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 12:32 AM EDT (#203274) #

Exactly. Drabek/Brown/Happ is the sort of deal I expect to get for Halladay next trade deadline.

The only thing I'll disagree with is I do not think the Jays would get a premier pitching prospect like Drabek at next year's deadline. However, something like Taylor/Brown & Carrasco+ is certainly attainable.

If I am a team like the Dodgers, I would think that Doc could cut up the NL much like Sabathia did for TWO PLAYOFF RUNS. Heck, Doc is better than Sabathia but I have to give CC credit for what he did in the NL last year. That was ridiculous. Honestly, teams are overvaluing their very good prospects as far as I am concerned. Drabek is NEVER going to be Doc. I fully understand an unwillingness to give up someone like Kershaw...but common, Drabek? He'll probably compensate Burnett's loss by racing the chilli peppers himself.

Really what I'd love to see is Sabean (last yr of his contract I believe) propose a package centred around Bumgarner. Halladay/Lincecum/Cain with a crappy offense wins the world series, in my opinion.

Jim - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 08:13 AM EDT (#203275) #
Reasonable people don't think that baseball teams are cursed.  What about them is cursed anyway?  They had some pitchers get hurt?  Them and every other team in baseball.
Jim - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 08:29 AM EDT (#203276) #
Will,

You've got to sit back and take an objective look.  Will Baltimore ever catch New York and Boston?  Probably not.  They need all of their prospects to turn into huge stars to do that.  Is their outlook the next 4-5 years better then Toronto's?  Yes and it's not even close.  They have more coming through the pipeline and they still have the ability to spend to add pieces.   You can write down Baltimore's rotation in the same pencil you can Toronto's if Halladay isn't around.  If Brad Bergensen was a Blue Jay you'd have him locked in as a #4 starter for the next 5 years.  

Where did anyone say that Tampa's rotation is a lock to be better then Toronto's?  I think it probably will be, but that isn't really the difference between the teams.  Tampa's offense is light years better.  They probably won't be able to keep this core together for very long and they will walk a tightrope as they will have to start to move guys like Crawford soon, but they still have a ton of guys in the their system and when you are building an offense around Longoria that's a nice start.  They also haven't destroyed their payroll going forward.

Baltimore and Tampa both need a lot to go right in the future.  Baltimore needs to develop their premium talents and still add to fill holes.  Tampa needs to make some more brilliant trades (I love how the chart above somehow means something - because they didn't 'draft' Garza and Bartlett somehow they have less young talent contributing right now).   The percentages are much more in their favor then the Blue Jays. 

No one is going to bail them out of the Wells fiasco.  The only two teams that could both are smart enough to sit back and let that contract keep the Jays down in the future.  Leaving Wells where he is does more good for the Yankees and Red Sox then any player the Jays could include with Wells to entice them to pay his contract.  19 games a season against a team crippled by that money - why would they ever bail Toronto out of that?

Jim - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 08:34 AM EDT (#203277) #
The offers are going to get better for Doc as the week wears on I think.  It seems to me that the suitors look at Toronto and see a team that is going to have to move him and they want to see if they luck into fleecing Riccardi.  They may be wrong, but if I'm trying to trade for him I look and see 81$ million locked into 8 players and an 80$ million payroll and assume that in this economy no one is going to increase spending to keep a .500 team together.



TamRa - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#203278) #
(I love how the chart above somehow means something - because they didn't 'draft' Garza and Bartlett somehow they have less young talent contributing right now)

It means something when people are Tampa is da bomb because they are a "player development machine" (as has been said in one form or another by everyone from Kieth Law to you) and the Jays supposedly suck at it.

Tampa didn't develop Garza and Bartlett, yet Garza has been key to their success for a year and a half now. in other words, it's the difference in quality analysis, a knee-jerk assumptions (or parroting someone else's knee-jerk assumptions in some cases)


TamRa - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#203279) #
Reasonable people don't think that baseball teams are cursed.  What about them is cursed anyway?  They had some pitchers get hurt?  Them and every other team in baseball.

Reasonable people don't assume a remark like that is literal.

It is true however, IMO, that the team has been remarkably unlucky over the last 3-4 years. Not so much in terms of injuries (except maybe in 2007) but in the overall sense of the whole being less than the sum of the parts.

Jim - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#203280) #

It means something when people are Tampa is da bomb because they are a "player development machine" (as has been said in one form or another by everyone from Kieth Law to you) and the Jays supposedly suck at it.

Tampa didn't develop Garza and Bartlett, yet Garza has been key to their success for a year and a half now. in other words, it's the difference in quality analysis, a knee-jerk assumptions (or parroting someone else's knee-jerk assumptions in some cases)

Now you are posting charts to argue things with me that I've never said.  I don't think Tampa is a "player development machine", if I've said that please show me where and when. 

The Jays have done a decent job of coming up with pitching depth and they developed Lind and Hill which is a nice duo.  Tampa is better then the Jays because they have a better roster and right now and they have a better farm system.  They are going to have some serious budget issues going forward as well, the difference is that the players they can't afford like Crawford have trade value while the players the Jays can't afford either don't have any (Wells, Ryan) or as much (Rolen).

I said Baltimore has the pieces to improve and rise in the division and so far you've told me that Toronto's rotation will be as good as Tampa's and that Tampa isn't a player development machine. 

Are you arguing that the Jays have a brighter future right this second then Tampa does?  How would that even be up for discussion?

 

 

 

Jim - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#203281) #

Reasonable people don't assume a remark like that is literal.

It is true however, IMO, that the team has been remarkably unlucky over the last 3-4 years. Not so much in terms of injuries (except maybe in 2007) but in the overall sense of the whole being less than the sum of the parts.

So we can't take each other's posts literally?  That makes discussion on the internet a bit difficult doesn't it?

I still don't see what has been 'unlucky'.  The last 3 years they have won 87, 83 and 86 games.  The evidence points pretty strongly to they are what the record says they are.   Certainly there is luck in baseball but throw in the 100 games this year and that's 600 games that give you a pretty idea of how good this team is.  Isn't it more likely that you are overrating the individual parts then there is some greater force holding them back over a 600 game stretch?

 

TamRa - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#203283) #
Isn't it more likely that you are overrating the individual parts then there is some greater force holding them back over a 600 game stretch?

Take last year as a measure. By virtually every measure, except for a couple of small-sample-size stats, the Rays and the Jays were virtaually the exact same team talent wise.

Yet one of them won 11 more games than the other.

a 2,3 game swing you say "oh well" and move on - but ELEVEN?

This year we have now lost seven straight extra inning games - and this from a team who's something like 40-4 or some such when leading after 7.

Is that seeming contradiction a result of players who forget how to hit in extra innings, or random chance? Make that 0-7 a 4-3 for instance and that alone changes the complextion of the season so far.

I concede readily that I may tend to assume a somewhat better result than "cold logic" would dictate due to being a fan (but not nearly as much as you would probably assume)

I counter that by suggesting that pessimisim can easily lead a person to assume a worse outcome than cold logic would dictate.

For instance - what sort of hitter do you think Vernon Wells is most likely to be in 2010? Many people seem to be of the opinion he's done. Unless his eyes are gone, there's no reason to assume that. but many do out of nothing but pessimisim and negativism.

Do I think he'll be an MVP even of this team? Nope. I think no matter what he does it will always be less than what his talents suggest he CAN do. but he's not going to be a sub-.750 OPS hitter from now on either.

But If I suggest he might well have an OPS in the range of .780-.800, a lot of folks - perhaps you - would call be hopelessly unrealistic. I don't see how the two extreme views get reconciled.

I don't think they need to be. What bothers me is that there seems to be almost a condescending tone from you that you need to tell those who have a somewhat more hopeful outlook than you to "get real" and quit posting anything but your doom and gloom view.

You are entitled to your opinion, but don't assume it's the only one which is valid.

Mike D - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#203287) #

Weiters, Jones, Markakis, Tillman, Matsuz are the kind of premium talents you need to compete. 

Just thought I'd point out that Markakis' current age-25 season is not as good as Rios' age-25 or age-26 seasons.  On the other hand, Markakis will obviously explode while Rios is clearly finished.  In Pessimism Nation, that's how we do.

Jim - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#203292) #

hopeful outlook

If the hopeful outlook came with a realistic plan to improve the baseball club.  Pretty much the hopeful outlook comes with every player having a good season will have the same season next year and every player having a bad season will have a better season.  Every pitcher who is hurt will be healthy and every healthy pitcher will stay that way.  The other teams will all stand still and Rogers will add 20+MM to the payroll. 

As for Markakis, I didn't expect Rios to get worse that's why I don't expect Markakis to get worse.  Markakis has a seemingly high baseball IQ while Rios has one of the lowest baseball IQs in the major leagues.   25 year olds generally get better, because Rios didn't that means Markakis won't?  He might not get better, but he has nothing in common with Rios other then they both play the outfield and were good hitters when they were 25. 

Wells I would imagine will settle in the next few seasons a little bit better then he is playing this year.  Even at an .800 OPS he's still a liability. .750-.775 for a few seasons would be my guess.

 

Mike Green - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#203308) #
I like Markakis a whole lot subjectively.  He isn't hitting quite as well in his age 25 season, as previously.  Strangely, his age 24 BBRef comparables aren't that great- Ben Grieve, Ellis Valentine, Enos Slaughter, Vernon Wells, Carlos Beltran in the following sense.  On average, they didn't really improve much from 25 on, as compared with where they had been. 
Chuck - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#203315) #

He isn't hitting quite as well in his age 25 season, as previously.

After a roughly 8% walk rate at ages 22 and 23, he went crazy and walked 99 times at age 24. Now he's back to his old 8% schtick without an offsetting bump in batting average or power. Is he going to be great or merely good?

Without IBB's being a big part of the equation, you wonder how a batter's walk rate can change so dramatically year over year. Cal Ripken was like that. 102 walks in 1989. 57 walks in 1990. Ivan Rodriguez walked 53 times in 2003 and only 11 times two years later. What gives?

Geoff - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#203322) #
Cal Ripken was like that. 102 walks in 1989. 57 walks in 1990. Ivan Rodriguez walked 53 times in 2003 and only 11 times two years later. What gives?

My uneducated guess would point to scouting reports changing from year to year. Which also may be tied to health of the player. Go aggressive after this guy. Stay away from him. Don't ever throw it to this zone on him. Pound him with pitch X here. Essentially, the pitcher's approach can dictate a lot on whether a guy walks as often from one season to the next. Or maybe it's his hitting coach. Or his girlfriend. Then there's the backup theory of dumb luck. And between a plausible theory and the General Theory of Chance you should be able to explain anything in baseball.

TamRa - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 02:21 AM EDT (#203360) #
Wells I would imagine will settle in the next few seasons a little bit better then he is playing this year.  Even at an .800 OPS he's still a liability. .750-.775 for a few seasons would be my guess.

I was purposely low-balling Wells there for the sake of the point.

Over the last six previous seasons, Wells' OPS was a collective .826

Lay aside the injury affected 2007 performance and it's .850ish.

and yes, I'm saying it's more likely that Wells OPS in 2010 is roughly .850 than it is that it's anywhere close to to .750.

Considerably more likely.

Jim - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#203369) #

Well before this horrendous season PECOTA had Wells at a .765 projection for 2010.  It had him at a weighted mean of .761 for this season with a 29% collapse rate....

 

Jim - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#203370) #

I know that I'm doom and gloom... but how about this for a stat from BP yesterday:

Throughout 2002-2009, the Blue Jays have won 64 percent of the games that Roy Halladay has pitched and only 46 percent of the games that he has not pitched.

This year 58% when he pitches, 47% when he doesn't.

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