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Today we look at the prospects rated at 20 though 11.

20. Eric Thames, OF
Born November 10, 1986. Selected in the 7th round of the 2008 draft.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2007
20
NCAA
200
9
5
0
16
36
5
2
.320
.381
.415
2008
21
NCAA
182
11
8
13
35
30
11
1
.407
.513
.769
2009
22
RK
21
3
0
0
3
5
0
0
.286
.360
.429
2009
22
A+
195
24
15
5
21
40
1
1
.313
.386
.487

A 2008 draftee who didnít play last year because of injury, Eric Thames got his feet wet in the Gulf Coast League before going straight to Dunedin and turning in a very respectable campaign as a corner outfielder. Thames hit .318 with a .386 on-base percentage and a .487 slugging. Most of his slugging came from gap power, as he hit 15 doubles and 5 triples compared to only three home runs. Despite the number of triples, Thames doesnít have plus speed and was only 1-for-2 in stolen base attempts.

A lack of home run power isnít new to Thames. He led Pepperdine in RBI in 2007 without hitting a single homer. However, he launched a number in 2008 as he improved his draft stock after being offered 5th round money to sign with the Yankees after being a 37th round selection in the past yearís draft. He dropped because of a quad muscle injury that kept him out of action for 3-4 months and there were concerns over how thatíd affect him long-term. He seems to have recovered at least most of his ability and looks like he could have been a very astute draft pick by the Jays.

Thames has a short, compact swing and excellent bat speed, but a very weak arm. He has one of the better bats in the system, but there is a significant question of how he profiles as a major leaguer if he doesnít display more power and is forced to LF or DH because of defensive issues.

19. Sean Ochinko, C
Born October 21, 1987. Selected in the 11th round of the 2009 draft.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2007
19
NCAA
191
5
0
7
21
50
2
5
.277
.371
.414
2008
20
NCAA
136
6
0
4
3
25
0
1
.272
.308
.404
2009
21
NCAA
234
15
0
9
20
35
2
2
.333
.395
.513
2009
21
A-
186
19
0
6
16
26
1
0
.323
.380
.522

As many Bauxites probably know, Sean Ochinko was the R. Howard Webster award winner at Auburn as the teamís most valuable player. That award capped quite a 2009 for Ochinko, as he won the College World Series, was drafted, won a teamís MVP award and met the President.

Ochinko was drafted out of LSU in the 11th round of the 2009 draft and had a very strong season for the Doubledays. Ochinko hit .324 with 6 homers and 32 RBI. He was the teamís player of the month in August and put up a .324/.382/.527 line over the season to lead the Doubledays in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The right-handed hitter finished second in the NY-Penn League in batting average and, with a .924 mark, was also second in OPS..

In Seanís other major 2009 accomplishment he was a starter for the 2009 College World Series champion LSU Tigers along with fellow Toronto draftee Ryan Schimpf. Ochinko, starting at first base, batted fourth for the Tigers in the final game of the best-of-three series and went 4-for-5 with three singles and a home run and 3 RBI in LSUís 11-4 victory over Texas. He started for the team consistently throughout the tournament and usually hit anywhere from fourth to sixth.

He spent much of the past season at LSU at first base, with fifty-seven games there as opposed to only six at catcher. However, Ochinko, who split time at the two positions during his freshman year, does prefer to catch and played there primarily in high school. The Jays appear to be giving Ochinko the chance to stick as a catcher, as he split time almost evenly between catcher, first and DH for Auburn. He allowed 19 stolen bases on 24 attempts and had five passed balls, but didnít make an error. When he starts next year depends on how aggressive the Jays want to be with him and whether they want him to spend more time behind the plate Ė in which case he might stay at the level below Jimenez Ė but he should reach Dunedin by the end of the year.

18. Darin Mastroianni, OF
Born August 26,1985. Selected in the 16th round of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2007
21
A-
230
11
4
3
36
42
20
10
.287
.391
.409
2008
22
A
325
10
4
3
31
77
30
1
.228
.302
.311
2009
23
A+
231
11
2
0
37
38
32
7
.325
.426
.390
2009
23
AA
247
10
2
1
39
45
38
8
.271
.372
.340

Mastroianni was drafted by the Jays after coming off a banner season with Southern Indiana in Division II where he was named the 2007 Great Lakes Valley Conference's Player of the Year and was also selected to the league's first all-star team at second base.  He made a nice transition to professional baseball later that year with a solid debut in Auburn where he flashed his speed and batting eye while moving to the outfield.  The 5-foot-10, 195 pound right-handed hitter encountered his first struggles at the pro level in Lansing last season when his .253 average in April represented his high water mark. His walk rate dropped nearly 5 percent from the season before and his strike outs went up over 5 percent. However, he didn't lose his ability to steal bases as he was caught just once in 31 attempts. 

Despite having a rough time of it in the state of Michigan, Mastroianni found the Sunshine State to be more to his liking.  He sharpened his batting eye by regaining the 5 percent drop in his walk rate from Lansing, made more contact by cutting his strikeouts by over 6 percent and hit the ball harder as his line drive rate shot up 10 percent.  That helped Mastroianni earn a berth in the Florida State League All-Star Game in June in Fort Myers.  He was called up to New Hampshire after that and he had a rough patch for the latter half of June and all of July when he tried to get his batting average to the .210 mark.  However, his bat came around in August when he hit .314 and followed that up with a .357 September.  Mastroianni's on-base percentage stayed over .400 for the final two months of the season.  His stolen base total with Dunedin and New Hampshire was 70 to give him 100 steals in just 116 attempts over the past two seasons.

Mastroianni has also proven to be good defender as he made no errors in 166 chances this season while picking up 10 outfield assists, including four in one game with the Fisher Cats to set a team record.  He is said to make accurate throws with a quick release and utlitizes his speed well in chasing down fly balls from center field.

The Jays haven't been afraid to challenge Mastroianni in the past and they may do it again by sending him to the Pacific Coast League to start off 2010.  If things go according to Hoyle, he may get to roam the new turf at the Dome next season.

17. Bobby Bell, RHP
Born August 26, 1985. Selected in the 18th round of the 2008 amateur draft.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2008
23
A-
19
0
27.2
4.88
0.00
0.00
12.69
0.98
2008
23
A
2
0
3.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
12.00
0.00
2009
23
A+
42
10
96.1
6.17
0.47
2.05
10.46
2.43

Motivated by his absence from last year's top 30 list, Bobby Bell followed up his eye-popping 2008 campaign with another excellent year, this time at Dunedin. Now, nobody expected him to replicate his 2008 K/BB ratio of infinity, but there is nothing to complain about here in terms of performance. The hit rate, homer rate, walk rate and strikeout rate are all fantastic.

Bell transitioned to the starting rotation midway through the year, and continued to dominate. If he can keep up the pace with a full-time switch to the rotation in 2010, he will ascend the prospect ladder very quickly, but until we see continued success out of the rotation in the high minors, we need to temper our expectations - hence the #17 ranking.

16. Gustavo Pierre, SS
Born December 28, 1991. Signed as an international free agent from the Dominican Republic.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2009
17
Rk
174
10
4
4
3
45
8
5
.259
.272
.431

Gustavo Pierre will celebrate his eighteenth birthday just after Christmas, he played this season as a 17 year old.  Pierre was also recovering from Tommy John surgery that he had in 2008.  It is hard to be judgemental about a 17 year old playing professional baseball for the first time in the US.  Pierre obviously held his own and the only criticism of him is his lack of walks.  In that regard he is living up to the old saying about players from the Dominican "you don't walk off the island".  Pierre is good size for a shortstop, he is listed as 6'2" and 183 lbs, and he might not be finished growing.  Pierre should go back to extended spring training next season, and might get to Auburn for the second half, but projecting eighteen year old players is difficult. 

 

15. Brian Dopirak, 1B
Born  December 20, 1983. Signed as a minor league free agent in 2008. 

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2007
23
A+ 347
17
0
23
23
91
1
1
.277
.325
.490
2007
23
AA
78
1
0
1
3
19
0
0
.218
.247
.269
2008
24
A+
409
25
2
27
47
100
0
0
.308
.382
.577
2008
24 AA 87 6 0 2 2 10 1 1 .287 .297 .425
2009
25
AA
328
29
1
19
35
75
1
3
.308
.374
.576
2009
25 AAA 218 13 1 8 13 44 0 0 .330 .366 .509

The 6-4, 230 pound right-handed slugger from Tampa, Florida is knocking on the door of the major leagues.  Dopirak turned in an outstanding 2009 season that saw him reach AAA Las Vegas and he made a strong case for a promotion to the big club.  However, the only time he spent in Toronto during the month of September was during the club's second last home game of the season when he picked up the R. Howard Webster Award as the club's top player at AA New Hampshire.  The one-time number one prospect of the Chicago Cubs who was derailed by ankle injuries revived his career when he returned to Dunedin in 2008, where he starred at the high school level.  Dopirak enjoyed a comeback season in Dunedin last year when he made the Florida State League All-Star game and earned a promotion to New Hampshire. 

In his second stint with the Fisher Cats this season, Dopirak earned a berth in the Eastern League All-Star Game and he was named the DH for the Eastern League's Post-Season All-Star Team despite the fact he packed his bags for Las Vegas in mid-July.  At the time of his promotion, he led the Eastern League in home runs, RBI (68), doubles, extra-base hits (49) and slugging percentage (.579).  Dopirak still wound up as the Eastern League's top slugger when his adjusted slugging mark was .548 after taking into account the number of hitless at-bats he needed to qualify.  Dopirak s big highlight with New Hampshire came in early May when he had a five hit night and eight RBI; thanks to two homers, two doubles and a triple.  He endured a power drought in July by going 20 games without a homer but he ended that streak emphatically when he belted two homers and drove in seven runs in one game for the 51's.

Though Dopirak struck out about 20 percent of the time in 2009, he drew walks at a near 10 percent clip in New Hampshire which represented about an 8 percent increase from his brief stint with the Fisher Cats in 2008.  However, his walk rate dropped by four percent in Las Vegas.  On the flip side, his isolated power remained above .200 in AA and was over .290 in the months of May and June when he clubbed 7 homers in each month.  His ISOP fell to .179 in AAA but his line drive rate went from 16 percent in AA to 27 percent in Las Vegas.  His BABIP lines were .350 and .386 respectively with New Hampshire and Las Vegas.

Dopirak's bat will have to carry him to the bigs because his defence is said to be limited.  He had a brief stint in the outfield with Dunedin in 2008 but he remained at first base in '09 where he made 13 errors in the field.  Dopirak will likely begin 2010 back in Nevada but if he can duplicate his AA success to AAA the second time around, Dopirak should be able to earn a call-up to Baseball North.

14. Justin Jackson, SS
Born December 11,1988. Selected in the first round (45th overall) in the 2007 amateur draft.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2007
18
R 166
1
1
2
20
44
7
4
.187
.274
.241
2008
19
A
454
26
6
7
3
19
17
8
.238
.340
.368
2009
20
A+
249
12
1
0
39
87
0
0
.213
.321
.269

The son of former major league infielder Chuck Jackson, the 2009 season was one to forget for the 6-foot-2, 175 pound right-handed hitter as his "Jays shortstop of the future" title is being challenged by Tyler Pastornicky.  An Ashville, North Carolina high schooler who was a teammate of current Marlin Cameron Maybin, Jackson struggled at the plate and in the field in his first taste of the Florida State League before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in July.  Jackson also missed time in May with the wonky shoulder before he was shut down for good.  It was in May when Jackson had his best month when he hit .367/.450/.490 in 60 plate appearances.  Other than that, he hit just over a buck-fifty in April and July and hit just .217 in June, albeit with a .360 on-base percentage.  It's been said Jackson has good bat speed but his swing remains long and loopy.  His power dried up as he put up a goose egg in the home run column, down from the seven he hit with Lansing in 2008.  Jackson did bump up his walk rate nearly two percent from last season to 13 percent but his strike out rate nearly reached 30 percent once again.  When he did reach base, he showed off his base stealing skills by swiping 17 bags in 21 tries. 

Defensively, Jackson has the goods and is projected to be an above average to plus fielder with good range, hands and footwork according to Baseball America but he does tend to be lackadaisical at times.  The latter statement proved to be true as he made 18 errors with Dunedin and committed 26 the year before with Lansing.

Jackson still has time to get things together as he is expected to begin his second straight season in Dunedin.  If all goes well, he's projected to be an above average shorstop who can hit 15 to 20 homers a season if he fills out and develops power.  However, it's expected he'll need about two to three more seasons to develop before reaching the bigs.

 

13. Andrew Liebel, RHP
Born March 22, 1986. Selected in the third round of the 2008 draft.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2008
22
A-
7
1
14.2
11.66
1.23
1.23
11.66
3.68
2009
23
A+
27
27
156.0
8.94
0.75
2.42
6.81
3.63
2009
23
AA
2
2
13.0
6.92
1.38
1.38
8.31
2.08

Andrew Liebel just finished his first full pro-season and he made it to AA.  His numbers in Dunedin were good and in only two starts in AA he improved most of those numbers.  However Liebel is considered a possible number 4/5 pitcher because he does not have outstanding "stuff" and he relies on his command and mixing his pitches to succeed.  Liebel throws four pitches, none of them outstanding.  Baseball America noted that Liebel drew comparison to Ian Kennedy the Yankees pitcher who has been trying to break into the major leagues for a couple of seasons now.  That is likely Liebel's fate, to take a few years to master his craft so he can pitch in the major leagues.  Liebel will likely pitch in AA next season, at some stage, and could get a taste of the major leagues in 2011.

12. Johermyn Chavez, OF
Born: January 26, 1989. Signed as a non-drafted amateur free agent in 2005.

Year Age Level AB
2B
3B
HR SB CS
AVG
OBP
SLG
2006
17
R
105
9
0
0
1
2
.276
.371
.362
2007
18
R
176
12
2
6
7
2
.301
.389
.494
2008
19
A-
402
20
2
7
9
5
.211
.272
.323
2009
20
A-
508
22
6
21
10
6
.283
.346
.474

Repeating a level is often the kiss of death for a lot of prospects - and it also clouds excitement around any success that they might have. Such is not the case with Chavez, however. Although he repeated low-A Lansing in 2009, the Venezuelan outfielder was just 20 years old, still young for the league. Keeping in mind that the league average line is .256/.329/.373, Chavez hit .283/.346/.474 with 21 homers and 89 RBI.

His .191 ISO was impressive for his age (.200+ is considered slugger potential) and he showed improvements with his plate rates: His walk rate increased from 5.9 to 7.3% in one year, and his strikeout rate dropped from 31.8 to 27.0%. Chavez hit for a better average against southpaws in 2009 but he hit for more power against right-handers. On the downside to his numbers, his line-drive rate was just 10.3%. Chavez was second in the league in homers, fourth in RBI, fifth in runs scored, and 10th in ISO. Defensively, he has shown improvements and with the promotion of Moises Sierra to Dunedin, Chavez slid back to right field in 2009 where he showed off a strong arm.

11. Brad Mills, LHP
Born  March 5, 1985. Selected in the 4th round of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2007
22
A-
6
2
18.0
4.50
0.00
3.00
10.50
2.00
2008
23
A
15
15
88.1
7.88
0.33
3.11
10.21
2.55
2008
23
A+
6
6
33.1
6.80
0.54
3.26
9.52
1.05
2008
23
AA
6
6
32.2
6.71
0.56
3.35
8.94
1.10
2009
24
AAA
14
14
84.1
8.88
0.64
3.75
7.71
4.06
2009
24
MLB
2
2
7.2
16.43
4.69
7.04
10.56
14.09

 The Jays had quite a haul of left-handed college pitchers in 2007, with Marc Rzepczynski and Brett Cecil already established in the major league rotation. Brad Mills, though, was actually the first one to get there, after pitching at 3 levels in 2008, and having a fine start to the year in AAA. Unfortunately for Brad, his 2 starts for the Jays didn't go well, and soon after missed some time with injury.


A cursory glance at Mills' minor league numbers screams classic power pitcher - lots of walks and strikeouts with a low hit rate. However, Mills is not, in fact, a power pitcher, so it may be difficult for his skill set to work in the major leagues. He will need to sharpen his command, and work on keeping the ball down if he is to avoid the gopher ball. Mills is obviously a fast learner, as evidenced by his rapid ascent to the major leagues (some of that may be attributable to the fact that he was a 4-year college player). Brad is likely bound for the Las Vegas rotation in 2010, and we'll be keeping close tabs on him, as he could very well be a major contributor to the big club very soon.

Check back tomorrow for prospect numbers 10 through 1.

2009: Top 30 Prospects: #20 - #11 | 36 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#207045) #
Nice write-ups, as usual.

My understanding is that Thames runs pretty well, and fields left field well although he has a weak arm.  He'd be in my top 10.  We'll see if he hits 20 homers in New Hampshire next year, as I think he will provided he stays healthy.

Denoit - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#207046) #
Just noticed a small error, says Gustavo Pierre was born in 81 instead of 91.
Gerry - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#207047) #
Thanks Denoit, that shows how old I am getting.  It's hard to believe there are prospects bron in the nineties now.
LouisvilleJayFan - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#207049) #
Two thoughts:

1. Eric Thames started off the year on such a tear, I REALLY wish he would've stayed healthy. He could've easily made the Jays Top 10 if he had. Of course, you know what they say about wishes...

2. Brad Mills, I love him, so much that I'm being him for Halloween (I bought his Lansing road jersey from last year), but I feel like this year was his chance and as unlucky as he was (drawing the Phillies for BOTH of his big league starts) he could've shown better. Additionally, I remember the DrunkJaysFans referring to him as "Jamie Moyer Jr." because of his lack of power stuff. Next year, things get really crowded in the rotation with all those arms coming back. I'd almost rather see Mills get a shot somewhere else rather than to see him rot in Las Vegas for the next couple years.

Thomas - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#207050) #
My understanding is that Thames runs pretty well, and fields left field well although he has a weak arm. He'd be in my top 10. We'll see if he hits 20 homers in New Hampshire next year, as I think he will provided he stays healthy.

The quad injury is the big wild card with Thames, because it's tough for outsiders to know how much he is still affected by the injury and whether he has regained the strength he had prior to his injury. It wouldn't surprise me to see him running a bit more and hitting with more power next year (provided he stays healthy, of course).

Jdog - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#207052) #
With only 3 BB's this past season Thames must be a HBP machine to have his OBP so high. Im guessing your missing a 0.
Jdog - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#207053) #

So if Jackson repeats the FSL  what happens with Pastornicky? Whats everybody's guesses as to where these two are placed next year.

Mike Green - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#207056) #
They've got two reasonable choices with Pastornicky.  First, just move him to New Hampshire and give him plenty of time to work it out there.  Second, keep him in Dunedin to start the year and use both Jackson and Pastornicky at short and second perhaps flip-flopping for 1/2 a season.  Whoever hits, moves up to New Hampshire. 
Gerry - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#207057) #
Teaser alert...... I asked Dick Scott the Pastornicky/Jackson question.  Look for his answer here later this week (although the answer is not definitive).
tercet - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#207060) #
I'm slightly lost/confused, why is Dopirak 15, while Cooper will be most likely top 5 despite putting up awful AA stats in comparison to Dopirak's AA stats.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#207061) #
I am not sure that Cooper will be in the BB top 5.  The fact that he is 3 years younger than Dopirak does make a big difference though.    With Dopirak, what you see is what you are likely going to get.  With Cooper, one does not really know.  He may be a major leaguer at age 24. 
Gerry - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#207062) #
I'm slightly lost/confused, why is Dopirak 15, while Cooper will be most likely top 5 despite putting up awful AA stats in comparison to Dopirak's AA stats.
1. Age, Dopirak was born in 1983, Cooper in 1987
2. Pro experience, Cooper just finished his first full season, Dopirak has had a lot more
3. Dopirak has failed before at higher levels and there is some question about his potential, some scouts suggest he has a long swing and/or he has trouble with breaking balls.  Cooper is still given credit for being able to develop becuase of his age and lack of experience. 
 
Dopirak, having failed before, has to prove himself at every stop.  Cooper has the benefit of the doubt.
92-93 - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#207063) #
Wow. Farquhar and Fuenmayor are either too high or way too low. Our top 10 is WEAK.
LouisvilleJayFan - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#207066) #
I'm betting Fuenmayor doesn't crack the top 30. No way is he top 10.
tercet - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#207070) #
My guess top 10, 1.Stewart, 2.Arencibia, 3.Alvarez, 4. Jenkins , 5. Cooper ,6.Farquar, 7.Collins,8.Sierra,9.Loewen, 10. Pastronicky

I probably missed someone though, lol

John Northey - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#207072) #
Collins in the top 10 is a bit too high.  He is a great story, fun to cheer on but he is not a top prospect just yet.  He is a left handed relief pitcher.  Put him in the rotation with this degree of success and then I'd put him top 10, but not as a reliever.  Especially if you factor in size - like it or not bigger pitchers do project out far better than small ones.
TamRa - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#207075) #
I hope Loewen is in the top 10 and not unranked.

No way I'd put either Collins or Farquhar in the top 10

Where's Carlos Perez? if he's in the top 10 then who's missing?
 (my guess is Perez is in there and Loewen was snubbed)



tercet - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#207076) #
Well, he isn't 11-30, so he has to be in the top 10 somewhere.
Sister - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#207078) #
Well, that likely leaves who in the top 10?

Cooper, Collins, Arenchiba, Farquhar, Jenkins, Sierra, Stewart, Gonzalez, Campbell, Pastornicky...

Who am I missing?
TamRa - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#207080) #
I'm surprised Scott Campbell dropped out of the top 30 too (assuming he did) - one injury plagued campaign shouldn't cost you THAT much status.



TamRa - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#207081) #
Well, that likely leaves who in the top 10?

Cooper, Collins, Arenchiba, Farquhar, Jenkins, Sierra, Stewart, Gonzalez, Campbell, Pastornicky...

Who am I missing?


Rieder Gonzalez?

NO WAY he made the top 10


Mike Green - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#207082) #
Right.  Gonzalez was #27 yesterday.
TamRa - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#207083) #
Check that - Gonzalez has already appeared at #27

Guys in my top 20 still unmentioned:

Collins, Farquahar, Campbell, Patronicky, Loewen, Perez, Seirra, Arencibia, Cooper, Jenkins, Alverez, Stewart

My guess is that Loewen and Campbell are not in the BB Top 10 (as i don't think the relievers fell completely out of the rankings - but I'd rather they had than the guys I think are likely missing)


MatO - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#207085) #
Collins turned 20 on Aug 29.  He struggled a bit at AA but still K'd 17 in 12.2 IP and he's not a soft tosser.  He better be in the top 10 as should Carlos Perez.  Leowen?  No way.
Jdog - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#207086) #

I'd bet big bucks that tercet's top 10 is correct just substituting Carlos Perez for Adam Loewen, in no particular order.

The system has to be in the bottom 3 in the whole league. Most all prospects would be C+  prospects with the exception of Stewart and maybe a couple others squeak out a B-.   That being a lot of the C+ prospects are young and have potential to dramatically improve their stock with a big year next year.

 

Mike Green - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#207090) #
Using Bill James' description of prospect rating, Pastornicky would be a B, as would Sierra. 
ayjackson - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#207096) #

Mastroianni is a bit of a wildcard and a bit under-rated here I think.  He has excellent plate discipline, excellent defence at a premium position, and exceptional base stealing ability.  If he can maintain a .360+ OBP in the majors, I'd have no problem with him as an everyday centrefielder.  The stolen bases compensate somewhat for the lack of power.   The wildcard is whether 2009 was pure development as a hitter or a bit of over-acheivement.

If that moves Wells and Snider to the corners in 2011, I'd hope Wells can regain some power stroke.

ayjackson - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#207097) #
Mike, can you explain or provide a link to James' rating system?
kevinthedog - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#207098) #

thanks to the minor league crew for the great work.  i always enjoy these lists.

i'm wondering if Michael McDade missed the cut entirely... he posted similar slash numbers to Johermyn Chavez in the MWL and is a few months younger albeit with less defensive value.

i'm not sure Cooper would crack my personal top 10.  i'm worried the power isn't going to come along and as a bad defensive 1B he needs to hit for power. 

kevinthedog - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#207099) #

I hope Loewen is in the top 10 and not unranked.

is it possible Loewen did not qualify for the list due to his major league experience?

Mylegacy - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#207103) #
To continue...

In 20th you've got Eric Thames, I've got him 8th. IF healthy - I think this guy could REALLY put it all together!
In 19th you've got Sean Ochinko, I've got him 38th. We disagree. Is the guy a C, 1st, DH or ? I'm not sold. Again - I hope you're right!
in 18th you've got Darin Mastroianni, I've got him 24th. Great speed - BUT - I bet he ends up on corner and he doesn't have the bat. As a 2nd I'd REALLY like him!
In 17th you've got Bobby Bell, I've got him 12th. I'm REALLY high on this guy, sky high.
In 16th you've got Gustavo Pierre, I've got him 10th. VERY YOUNG - but VERY intriguing. Lets see what we've got in three years.
In 15th you've got Brian Dopirak, I've got him in 14th. A power hitter really starts to show it at 25 - Brian's age. He and Ruiz would be interesting additions!
In 14th you've got Justin Jackson, I've got him 29th. We disagree. ALL LEAGUE defense - I see JMac - all D no O. Hope you're right and I'm wrong!
In 13th you've got Andrew Liebel, I've got him 22nd. Same observations as you - I'm just not quite as optimistic.
In 12th you've got Johermyn Chavez, I've got him in 11th. I'm REALLY EXCITED about this guy!
In 11th you've got Brad Mills, I've got the talented little lefty in 5th!! I'm very high on this 24 year old gem. Is he a left handed Marcum? Could be!

Looking forward to 1 through 10 - this is GREAT FUN!

TamRa - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#207111) #
this system has to be in the bottom three in the whole league

I strongly disagree.

the bottom THIRD I'll buy, not the bottom THREE though.

And frankly, I can't recall the last time our system was ranked highly against the league and yet, there are more products of the Jays system in the majors right now than any other team and, even if you limit it to JP's work, the win-shares compiled by Jays' draftees since 2002are easily in the top 10 and most likely in the top 5 of all teams draftees since 2002.

so I'm not specially worried if BA or someone else says we have a sucky system. the proof is in the majors.

is it possible Loewen did not qualify for the list due to his major league experience?

Very possible, I hadn't thought of that.

however, on my personal list, I make an exception because as an outfielder, he's a prospect because he hasn't been a major league outfielder at all.


Mike Green - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#207121) #
AYJ, I don't know if James' original description is on the internet somewhere, but it is found in one of his Abstracts.  It goes something like this:

Grade A- all markers positive
Grade B- more positive than negative markers, but missing something (an important skill, age relative to league too high)
Grade C- markers evenly balanced between positive and negative

Some examples.  Alex Rios would have been a classic Grade A prospect after his great season at age 22 in double A. Let's suppose Eric Thames takes a minor step forward in New Hampshire next year, posting an IsoP of .200 while hitting .300 with good W/K numbers.  He would then be a Grade B prospect because he would be doing that at age 23 in double A (1 year below par for the league).  Tyler Pastornicky would be a Grade B prospect right now because he plays good defence at short, has good speed, good control of the strike zone but absolutely no pop, and held his own in the Midwest League at age 19.  If his IsoP was at .140 or so, he'd probably be a Grade A or A- prospect.  Moises Sierra would also be a Grade B prospect at this point.  He held his own at age 20 in the FSL, but so far has not shown the power (or alternatively extreme strike zone control) that you would want in a right-fielder. Brian Dopirak would be a Grade C prospect because of his age relative to league, his defensive shortcomings and his weak strike zone control.

Jdog - Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#207131) #
I hated saying bottom 3 but i couldn't find 3 systems i liked worse. You find 3 systems that are worse and let me know.

I like a lot of the young kids and am hoping for the best but right now it looks pretty bad. There is not a kid out there that looks like he is going to be a future all-star, and when it comes to prospects quality generally trumps quantity.
Magpie - Wednesday, October 07 2009 @ 04:18 AM EDT (#207135) #
I had nothing to do with the rankings (and I haven't peeked, either!) but surely Loewen can not be regarded as a serious prospect? Not yet, anyway. He's got to actually do something impressive with the bat first. He's 25 years old, and he hit .236 with 4 HRs in A ball. He hasn't shown anything yet.
TamRa - Wednesday, October 07 2009 @ 05:42 AM EDT (#207139) #
It's the splits that make Loewen interesting, plus the reports both from when he was originally drafted and from more recently.

Normally, I'd agree beating up on (let alone holding your own in) A ball at his age is nothing - but when you haven't picked up a bat in....six years?....that kind of mitigates it.

Pre-ASB Loewen hit:

.207 / .301 / .283 / .584 in 43 games

.258 / .369 / .411 / .779 in 60 games and that's with a real possibility that he wore down as an everyday player (also a possibility pitching adjusted to him in August to be fair)

Still, I prefer the optimistic take (as usual) - what I see is a guy who took a couple of months to adjust and then in June his natural hitting ability re-emerged and he made dramatic progress and remarkable improvement before he ran out of gas (From June 1 to August 20 he hit .275 / .376 / .426 / .802)
I certainly could be wrong and it could be an illusion. But I expect he'll hit so well in NH next year that he'll get to spend most of the second half in Vegas and might even be a September call-up (as the Jays signed him for 2 years, they'll be motivated to see what he can do at the highest practical level before investing further)


2009: Top 30 Prospects: #20 - #11 | 36 comments | Create New Account
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