Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Hardball Times

The Hardball Times rates outfielder Johermyn Chavez as the Jays best minor league prospect in its top 10 list. The minor league crew at Batter's Box had Chavez at #12 in the top 30 list which you can check out here, here and here.

THT rates righty Chad Jenkins #2 (we had him at #4), catcher J.P. Arencibia #3 (we rated him #5), shortstop Tyler Pastornicky #4 (we said #7) and righty Zach Stewart #5 (number one by us!). Rounding out the THT Top 10 were first baseman David Cooper at #6 (we agree!!), righty Henderson Alvarez at #7 (we slotted him in at #3), outfielder Moises Sierra at #8 (he was #2 for us), second baseman Brad Emaus at #9 (#24 according to da Box) and lefty Brad Mills at #10 (who just missed our top 10 at #11).

In summary, we only agree on Cooper at number 6 and on three of the prospects are least being in the top five in Jenkins, Arencibia and Stewart. The biggest difference of opinion revolves around Chavez (12 spots) and Emaus (15 spots) but for the most part, our lists range from two to four spots difference.

The bible of prospect lists, Baseball America, will release its top 10 for the Jays on December 22nd. They're currently working through its way through the top tens of the National League East.

Continuing with BA, you can also find the musings of Jays reliever/author Dirk Hayhurst in his latest chapter of "Bullpen Chronicles".

Checking out how Jays farmhands are doing in winter ball, righty Robert/Bobby Ray is holding his own with Phoenix in the hitter happy haven of the AFL. He's won two of his three decisions with a 4.64 ERA. Though hitters are batting .309 against him, his K-BB mark is 22-6 over 21 1/3 innings over his six starts. Lefty Fabio Castro has put up a 2.63 ERA with Gigantes of the Dominican Winter League. Opponents are hitting just. 216 against him in 24 innings and his K-BB total is 15-7.

Offensively, Johermyn Chavez has put together a nice line of .313/.353/.438 with three RBI in 16 at-bats for Magallanes in the Venezuelan Winter League. However, he has just one hit in his last 10 at-bats and has walked just once. Brad Emaus is putting together a nice season in the Arizona Fall League. He's hitting .343 over his past 10 games with the Phoenix Desert Dogs to push his overall line to .302/.387/.396. Even though the power isn't quite what you'd like, his batting eye is. Emaus has drawn seven walks and has struck out just three times in 53 at-bats. He's homered once, driven in nine runs and is 2-for-2 in the stolen base department.

David Cooper is batting .286/.365/.429 with the Mesa Solar Sox in the AFL with six extra base hits but just one homer and five RBI in 56 at-bats. The Jays first round pick in 2008 has hit .325 over his past 10 contests. Recent 40-man roster addition Brian Dopirak is hitting .287/.388/.509 with Magallanes in Venezuela. Even though he's hitting just .243 over his last 10 contests, his OBP is a more than respectable .370 and he's slugging .514 so that is a good sign.

Those struggling with the stick include outfielders Adam Loewen and Darin Mastroianni. Loewen's having a miserable time of it in Arizona by hitting only .179/.288/.250, including a .125 batting average over his past 10 games. Mastroianni is hitting .148/.286/185 but the good news is his batting eye has helped him draw six walks in 27 at-bats. The running game has yet to kick in for him as he is just 1-for-2 in the stolen base department.

To find out more on how the Jays players and pitchers are doing in the Winter Leagues, click here.

Posted by #2JBrumfield on Friday, November 13 2009 @ 08:02 AM EST.

Hardball Times - Chavez #1 Prospect | 24 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

crush_99 - Friday, November 13 2009 @ 08:19 AM EST (#208362) #

A couple of nice articles at the NYtimes son AA
http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/12/torontos-new-gm-hits-the-ground-running/
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/13/sports/baseball/13baseball.html

Forkball - Friday, November 13 2009 @ 08:37 AM EST (#208363) #

I think the big discrepancies is an indication that the prospects are all kind of in the same B- pool. When someone's a top prospect you know it, and the Jays don't have that right now.

AA thought Alvarez might be #1 for what that's worth.

China fan - Friday, November 13 2009 @ 09:15 AM EST (#208365) #

Big kudos to the Batters Box writers for keeping the discussion alive in the off-season with lots of interesting articles, analysis and debate. At a time when many fans are depressed over the decline of our favorite team, BB is sparking interest with plenty of news nuggets and thoughtful insights. Great work.

One question, or series of questions: why is Dopirak playing in the Venezuelan league this winter? Isn't it more normal for top prospects to be in the Arizona league? Is the calibre of play in Venezuela high enough to keep him improving? Is there any significance to the decisions about which players are slotted into which league in the winter, or is there some degree of randomness or unrelated factors at work?

Mike Green - Friday, November 13 2009 @ 10:41 AM EST (#208367) #

It's true. BA's top 10 prospect list has a "biblical" feel to it. For myself, I prefer the Gershwin "It aint necessarily so" quality at da Box.

I wouldn't have Chavez as the top prospect because of his below average strike zone control, but what is clear is that the organization is not lacking for good young players at the right end of the defensive spectrum (Snider, Lind, Cooper, Dopirak, Thames, Chavez, Sierra), and they're stuck with Wells, which means that they need only three or four of those.

China fan - Friday, November 13 2009 @ 11:21 AM EST (#208368) #

Gotta love Dirk Hayhurst's description of his locker-room tantrum after being yanked from a game against the Nats last season: "I threw my glove, torn off in disgust, into my locker, my hat and jersey following after. Each piece landed where heaved � the first time I hit my spots in three consecutive attempts all night."

Timbuck2 - Friday, November 13 2009 @ 11:33 AM EST (#208369) #

Any bets on who the "Veteran" player sitting in the clubhouse was?

My vote's on Millar...

China fan - Friday, November 13 2009 @ 11:58 AM EST (#208370) #

LIkely quote from Millar: "Fetch me a Gatorade, kid, I'm batting clean-up again....."

joeblow - Friday, November 13 2009 @ 12:28 PM EST (#208371) #

One of the commenters is a season ticket holder at AA and rates OF Darrin Mastroianni highly. Not sure his type of game translates into major league value, but it's good to hear the opinion from someone who watches the team closely.

Mylegacy - Friday, November 13 2009 @ 01:53 PM EST (#208376) #

On THT's "Top 10."

Chavez, his upside in George Bell. Talented physical player.

Jenkins, I see his upside as being a cross between McGowan and Halladay. Good ground ball guy with a mid-90's fastball. What's not to like. Built like Roger Clemens.

Arencibia, Rod Barajas with more power - even less on base skills BUT should be a TOP receiver and game caller. Gonna have a long career.

Pastornicky, not the "talent" of Jackson BUT unlike the underachieving Jackson he makes the ABSOLUTE MOST of his stuff. What is his stuff - getting on base and SPEED - stealing bases - he plays an at LEAST average MLB defensive SS and could make a good career as a lead off guy.

Stewart, mid 90's stuff, good head, good body, excellent shot as a closer, if his 3rd pitch develops could be a mid-rotation starter.

Cooper, my favorite prospect - NOT! He hits like a real good 2nd baseman but with marginal power - he hits AT BEST like a number 2 hitter. HOWEVER, his BEST position is DH. As a 1st or DH he will NEVER have enough power. Pity really - Next.

Alvarez, mid 90's fastball, gets lots of ground balls, is still a kid, great upside, likely mid-rotation starter.

Sierra, Jessie Barfield with less power. So far the only negative is his lack of power BUT he's 20 and power is the last thing to develop. Polished physical player - I predict he and Chavez will ROCK!

Emaus, a tweener - I'd have him at the very bottom of my 2010 "top 30" prospect list IF NOT right off that list.

Mills, this guy is a smart crafty lefty - outside chance he'll be Jimmy Key - more likely - 6th starter. KILLED AA hitters and below. Has to show he can do the same to AAA guys. Then in the bigs. Don't sell him short VERY SMART pitcher.

Of the above guys I see Chavez, Jenkins, Arencibia, Stewart, Alvarez and Sierra each having 5+ year big league careers. None of these guys is a sure thing all-star BUT if things go right I think 5 of them (Chavez, Jenkins, Stewart, Alvarez and Sierra) could get at least one all-star year in.

ON ANOTHER NOTE: Those articles on AA were interesting. It's beginning to look like AA is an exceptionally hard working very smart guy with very good - mostly self taught - scouting skills. I like everything new I hear about the guy. I'm really warming to him. Let the winter meeting begin!

TamRa - Friday, November 13 2009 @ 05:10 PM EST (#208380) #

Any bets on who the "Veteran" player sitting in the clubhouse was?

My vote's on Millar...

if you check the box scores for that series (yes, I did) and remember that Dirk said the guy had been in the bigs "over 10 years" it's can only be either Millar or McDonald

Both have the reputation as good clubhouse guys.

IF the Gatorade remark is legit, and not artistic license, then you have to think Millar...but as a matter of writing style, it's quite possible the intro about "fetching Gatorade" and that quote are just rhetorical florishes of the sort good writers use.

brent - Friday, November 13 2009 @ 08:36 PM EST (#208382) #

Does anyone know anything about surgeries to repair cartilage in wrists?

Geoff - Friday, November 13 2009 @ 09:24 PM EST (#208383) #

I checked the boxscores and Hayhurst only played in one game against the Nationals, so I would say he was obviously describing his outing on June 19.

Dirk came on in the 7th and Millar made a pinch-hit appearance in the 8th not long after.

Another candidate could exist in the mystery veteran sweepstakes: Raul Chavez made his first appearance in MLB two years before Millar, so he's even more of a graybeard. Smart money I'd agree is on Millar, though.

And a note to BB roster: stories that have a # in the title screw up the option to reply to comments. The story title gets passed as a variable in the URL for the Reply to This link but # interrupts the parsing before the type variable is passed. In case that was another mystery.

bball12 - Saturday, November 14 2009 @ 12:11 AM EST (#208384) #

MyLegacy - just curious - do you ever actually go to a game and watch the players before you provide your analysis - LOL

ayjackson - Saturday, November 14 2009 @ 07:48 AM EST (#208386) #

bball12, most people around here know Mylegacy lives in Victoria (far from our minor leaguers) and is very cautious not to understate anything when he posts.

ayjackson - Saturday, November 14 2009 @ 08:00 AM EST (#208387) #

While he may not be a top 10 prospect, #24 for Emaus seems like too harsh a penalty for one attrocious month at the dish (June OPS - .378).

Denoit - Saturday, November 14 2009 @ 10:34 AM EST (#208389) #

I still have faith in Justin Jackson, his overall stat lines look brutal but he has shown ability to hit at times, but very streaky. Look for him to bounce back next season.

Mylegacy - Saturday, November 14 2009 @ 12:47 PM EST (#208393) #

In answer to my friend ayjackson - I DO NOT live in Victoria - a sordid windy swamp of Government employees and retired Brits - I live in Nanaimo, in a high rise on the harbour walkway - overlooking the new cruise ship terminal - and I assure you, it is a sordid windy swamp of an entirely different sort than Victoria. So there!

In answer to my friends bball and ayjackson - I DO NOT overestimate our wonderful prospects. I have a simple method of evaluating them - I write up their stats and pin them to my giant wall cork board. I then pour a double, of at least an 18 year old Scotch (on the rocks), I drink it and four more of the same - then ON THE FIFTH - I raise the magic brew and look through the smoky glass at the prospects numbers - and voila - I see their true worth - which I then then share with my friends at the Box.

After all, sharing is good, n'est pas?

Richard S.S. - Saturday, November 14 2009 @ 02:29 PM EST (#208395) #

As I live in the Republic of Alberta (which is very, very real if you live here), I'm beginning to understand some of the writers here, even people from further west. After comparing the "core" and the "useful pieces" of the 1989, 1990, 1991 Blue Jays with our present group, I can understand the gloom hanging over the future. Until we have two dominant pitchers, like Duane Ward and Tom Henke, at the back of the rotation, everything else is just spinning our wheels.

Geoff - Saturday, November 14 2009 @ 02:52 PM EST (#208396) #

Hmmph, a Westerner who likes to play drinking games with 18-year-olds and speak French. Now I've seen EVERYTHING.

Thomas - Saturday, November 14 2009 @ 03:27 PM EST (#208398) #

I think the Jays value Alvarez more similarly to the Box than THT. In one of his interview Anthopolous referred to him as "maybe the team's top prospect" (or something very similar) and, although he spoke highly of Stewart in the same interview, he didn't preface his comments in the same manner.

There isn't a clear top prospect, as da Box's Top 30 and the internal lists showed, but I'd find it hard not to put Alvarez at the top few prospects and instead to slot him behind Cooper or Chavez at this point.

Ryan Day - Saturday, November 14 2009 @ 04:46 PM EST (#208400) #

I suppose you could downgrade Alvarez on the basis that a heck of a lot can happen between being a 19-year-old in A-ball and making it to the majors.

I'm more surprised by the discrepancy between Chavez and Sierra: Chavez has more power, but he was also repeating the level, while Sierra has stronger plate discipline and was a level higher. I can see the case for Chavez over Sierra, but probably not as much as 1st vs. 8th.

christaylor - Sunday, November 15 2009 @ 09:23 AM EST (#208401) #

Richard S.S. - I'm not sure if you're implying that you or others are of the mindset that the Jays need "two dominant relievers at the back of the pen".

I think that statement is false, but it runs deeper than that - the game has changed since the late 80s/early 90s. Relievers are used differently. With Ward/Henke Toronto had, essentially, two "relief aces" versus the new "set up" versus "closer". In truth, Ward was probably more of a "relief ace" as he racked up more innings.

LouisvilleJayFan - Sunday, November 15 2009 @ 10:06 AM EST (#208402) #

I like Chavez in the Top 3 and don't get why people aren't more impressed by his numbers. He was only 20 years old this year and sure he repeated the level, but I'm fairly certain if Ahrens and/or Jackson had repeated at Lansing they wouldn't have been close to that kind of improvement. Tolisano might have.

greenfrog - Sunday, November 15 2009 @ 09:24 PM EST (#208413) #

This is stating the obvious, but the Jays' top 10 could change in a big way if AA deals Halladay. I wonder whether the Red Sox might relent and trade one of Westmoreland or Kelly. If I were AA I would ask for (1) one of those two players, Buchholz, a B prospect like Bowden, and a C prospect with upside; or (2) Montero, Hughes, Jackson and a B prospect from the Yankees.

Hey, might as well aim high, instead of rolling over like the pusillanimous Indians did with the Lee trade. Actually, I think those proposals represent fair value, more or less. If either team lands Doc, it probably becomes the divisional favourite in 2010 (and either ends up with Roy long-term or receives two high draft picks when it's all said and done).

On a different note: there's an interview with Ricky Romero on the BP website. Reading between the lines, he sounds a bit disappointed that Arnsberg has moved on (although he's very tactful on the subject):

"DL: Is there anyone you can point to and say, "He really helped me to get over the hump?"

RR: I spent a lot of years in the minors, so there were a lot of guys that helped me along the way. Dave LaRoche, in Double-A, I worked with him for two years. And, obviously, Brad Arnsberg helped me out in spring training. They just kept me positive. It was me being positive, and gaining my confidence, more than anything. They always knew that I had a good arm and always knew that I had the stuff to pitch in the big leagues. It was just a matter of time. Arnie [Brad Arnsberg] in spring training just kind of made it a point that this was the type of pitcher that I was going to be. He believed in me, and if he believed in me, I should believe in myself, and the day that I started believing in myself would be the day that my career was going to start turning around. I think that�s the biggest thing that kind of sunk into my mind, that my stuff does play here, and that it was just a matter of taking it out to the mound and being confident.

DL: Arnsberg just left the organization to become the pitching coach in Houston. How much of a negative is that for you?

RR: Any time you lose someone that you�re close with, and get to work with, it�s obviously going to be a little different, but I still feel that we have a good pitching coach in Bruce Walton. He kind of worked under Arnie a little bit, and he knows me, and I actually got to work with him a couple of times this year when Arnie took a leave of absence, early in the year, for his son�s graduation or something. So I was able to work with Pappy and talk to him a lot during the year, and he helped me out too. He�s a very knowledgeable guy, in pitching, and I couldn�t any happier for him."

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9769

Hardball Times - Chavez #1 Prospect | 24 comments | Create New Account

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