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The Top 30 prospects series demonstrated the strength of the Blue Jays minor league system compared to the past couple of seasons. Several prospects were left off the Top 30 list who would have been comfortable inclusions a year or two ago. Given the depth of the system, the Minor League Crew decided to profile some additional prospects worth keeping an eye during the offseason and coming year. This list is in alphabetical order and shouldn't necessarily be considered the next 9 best prospects in the system. Rather, these are names that we highlighted, some familiar and some not so familiar, who are some of the players who could move onto the Top 30 list at the end of the 2011 season.

Kevin Ahrens, 3B
Born April 26, 1989. Selected in the 1st round of the 2007 draft. 

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2007
17
Rk
165
6
0
3
25
47
3
0
.230
.339
.321
2008
18
A
460
25
5
5
45
135 5
1
.259
.329
.367
2009
19
A+
377
17
2
4
37
76
1
1
.215
.282
.302
2010
20
A
253
12
2
8
21
51
2
4
.265
.319
.423
2010
20
A+
107
6
1
1
7
20
1
0
.187
.241
.290

 In 2011 Kevin Ahrens will be one of the most watched prospects in the Blue Jays system as management and fans try and figure out what to expect from the first round pick.  Ahrens was promoted aggressively under the JP Ricciardi regime and while he was always underage for his level he was never able to get his OPS over 700.  So in mid-2010 the Blue Jays decided to eliminate switch hitting for Ahrens and they sent him back to Lansing to hit exclusively from the right side.  After a short acclimation period Ahrens bat took off and he hit very well in Lansing earning a brief return to Dunedin to finish the season. 

Is Ahrens a better hitter now that he is hitting only from the right side?  Was his success in Lansing a hot streak or a sign of new potential?  Or did Sal Fasano get in his head and motivate him to up his game?

Ahrens will be 21 on opening day 2011 and a spot on the Dunedin roster will see him at an age appropriate level. 2011 will be interesting.

 

Adonis Cardona, RHP
Born January 14, 1994. Signed as an international free agent.


Cardona was born three months after Joe Carter touched 'em all.  Think about that for a second.  In any event, Cardona's $2.8MM bonus is the largest ever given to a Venezuelan and the second largest international free agent bonus given by the Jays.  While Cardona has yet to pitch professionally for the organization, the 16 year old stands 6'4" and reportedly already touches 94 MPH on the gun while also featuring a curve and a change-up. 

As you may have noticed, we didn't really know what to do with Cardona in our Top 30.  Obviously based on his bonus the Jays figure he's easily a top prospect and this time next year he could very well be featured prominently in our breakdown.  But for now, he's a prospect to watch albeit a very intriguing one.  He's likely to start in the DSL and it'll obviously be years before he comes up north.

 

 

David Cooper, 1B
Born February 12, 1987. Selected in the 1st round of the 2008 draft.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2008
21
A-/A+
273
29
1
5
30 46 0
1
.333
.399
.502
2009
22
AA
473
32
0
10
59
92
0
0
.258
.340
.389
2010
23
AA
498
30
1
20
52
74
0
0
.257
.327
.442

 

After an incredibly underwhelming 2009, Cooper started his 2010 season in much the same fashion.  The plate discipline, extra base power, and average went out the window and with it went his prospect status.  However, something appeared to click towards the end of June and Cooper went on to post OPSs of .927 and .849 in July and August.  His power returned as did his plate discipline.

We were a little torn on Cooper during our Top 30 discussions.  3 of the eight panelists had him in their personal top thirties, with one as high as 18.  There's still something to like with Cooper.  He'll never have all that much of a ceiling but he's been very good for a year and a half of his three year professional career and it's still in the realm of possibility that he'll have a career reminiscent of Lyle Overbay.  Cooper could start the 2011 season in Las Vegas and, if he does, he'll likely put up some pretty decent numbers.


Michael Crouse, OF
Born November 22, 1990. Selected in the 16th round of the 2008 draft.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2008
17
Rk
15
0
1
0
3
7
1
1
.133
.316
.267
2009
18
Rk
188
9
4
2
23 53 25
5
.218
.308
.340
2010
19
Rk
96
7
3
4
9 32 9
6
.333
.402
.594
2010
19
A
88
5
2
2
14
35
5
2
.216
.327
.386

 Michael Crouse had a breakout season this year and earned a promotion to Lansing for the last month.  Crouse is still just nineteen years old despite this being his third pro season.

Crouse is impressive physically, he is listed at 6'4" and 215 pounds and he is built like a football tight end.  Sal Fasano sees a lot of potential in Crouse but describes him as raw, although Crouse did make significant strides this year.  The knock on Crouse was his bat speed which was considered too slow.  The Jays and Crouse have worked on that over the last two years and they think they have improved it.  Crouse has good power which should only continue to get better as he matures.  He also has good speed, particularly once he is under way.  All he has to do now is continue hitting as he has been and he should continue to move up. 

 

Misaul Diaz, RHP
Born December 20, 1989. Signed as an international free agent.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2008
18
DSL
13
4
37.2
10.52
0.24
3.82
7.65
6.21
2009
19
DSL
14
0
42.2
7.38
0.21
2.53
10.55
2.11
2010
20
Rk
8
8
35.0
6.81
0.00
1.77
8.33
2.52
2010
20
A-
5
5
22.2
7.94
0.00
1.59
9.13
2.78

 After a couple of years in the DSL the Jays brought Misaul (miz-ah-ool) Diaz to North America in 2010 and he didn't disappoint.  Diaz started 2010 in the GCL as a 20 year-old and he did pitch well as you would expect a 20 year-old in the GCL to do.  Diaz made eight starts and delivered a WHIP under one.  His ERA was 2.52 and he struckout almost a hitter per inning. 

Diaz was promoted to Auburn for the last month of the season.  The Auburn pitching coach, Vince Horsman, told me he had lobbied to get Diaz on the Auburn team at the start of the season but he was over-ruled.  Diaz repeated his GCL performance in five starts in the NYPL.  He gave up 20 hits and only 4 walks in 22.2 innings.  He struck out 23 in those 22.2 innings.  So you get the picture, Diaz pounds the zone with a low 90's fastball that sinks, a curve and a change.  Diaz has a funky delivery that can throw off some hitters.  Diaz is listed at 6'2" and 180 lbs.

Diaz will start 2011 as a 21 year old and based on his age and his NYPL performance he should get a promotion to Lansing to see what he can do there.

 

Oliver Dominguez, 2B
Born April 23, 1989. Signed as an international free agent.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2006
17
DSL
136
4
0
0
19
36
6
3
.154
.280
.184
2008
19
DSL
266
22
3
5
45
57
9
3
.305
.404
.466
2009
20
Rk
142
6
0
3
15
32
13
0
.225
.297
.331
2010
21
A-
199
12
1
3
32
48
14
2
.241
.350
.357
2010
21
A
110
6
0
3
21
19
11
4
.264
.383
.400
2010
21
AA
2
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
.000
.000
.000

Oliver Dominguez sure has been in the system for a long time considering he's only 21. Evidently the Jays decided he wasn't ready for the Dominican League after his poor performance as a 17-year-old in 2006, but when he returned in 2008 he was fantastic, and won a Webster Award in the process.

Since coming stateside in 2009, Dominguez has shown himself to be a guy with tons of patience (53 BBs in 376 PAs this year? Yes, please) and once he reaches first base, which he often does as a result of that patience, is an effective base-stealer - this year he swiped 25 bags and was only caught 6 times. Those are exactly the skills you want from a top-of-the-order hitter, and if things break right for Dominguez, that's his profile.

Oliver is a tiny guy, listed at 5'9" and 156 lb., so it's unreasonable to expect a ton of pop, but smaller players have succeeded in the major leagues. If he can play a good second base and maintain his plate discipline and speed, he could be a solid player. After a strong showing in 2010, here's hoping Oliver gets a full season of at bats next year.

Frank Gailey, LHP
Born November 18, 1985. Selected in the 23rd round of the 2007 draft.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2007
21
RK
18
0
33.0
8.18
0.55
1.63
7.63
2.45
2008
22
A-
3
0
4.2
5.79
0.00
1.93
9.64
1.93
2008
22
A
20
0
35.2
4.79
0.50
2.02
10.09
1.26
2009
23
A
44
0
65.1
6.61
0.28
3.17
8.27
1.93
2010
24
A+
45
1
91.2
8.54
0.20
0.98
9.72
2.55

Why would the Box profile a 24-year-old reliever in Dunedin who a 23rd round pick and has already repeated a level? Well, although he’s a middle reliever who is old for his league, Gailey has done nothing but put up strong numbers, year after year. In 2009, he posted posting a K/BB rate under 4.50 for the first time in his professional career. However, that demonstrates how effective Gailey has been the rest of his career and, despite that dip, he still put up a 1.93 ERA over 65.1 innings.

After struggling uncharacteristically with his control, Gailey demonstrated a big improvement in 2010, walking only 10 batters in 91.2 innings. Furthermore, he struck out 99 batters, which equates to a 9.90 K/BB rate. The second highest rate in Dunedin was Joel Carreno’s 5.72 and Gailey’s 9.90 mark was the second best in the Florida State League. It was also the best mark in the Jays organization of any pitcher with at least 30 innings, well ahead of Trystan Magnuson’s 6.30.

A southpaw, Gailey has a career 2.15 ERA in 230.1 minor league innings, with 232 strikeouts. Gailey has only surrendered 8 home runs in his professional career and, also impressively, has only allowed 5 unearned runs. In his career, Gailey has thrown 69.2 innings against left-handed batters and has not surrendered a home run. He has struck out 71, walked 14 and held lefties to a .193 average, while inducing ground balls on 56.3% of balls in play.

As a low round draft pick and minor league reliever, Gailey has a small margin for error. He walks a thin line between success and the potential end of his baseball career, but so far, he has earned a chance at the next level every step of the way. He should get a chance at New Hampshire next year and, if he comes close to duplicating his 2010 season, he’ll soon be in the running for a bullpen job in 2012, potentially as a left-handed specialist.

 

Sean Ochinko, C/3B
Born October 21, 1987. Selected in the 11th round of the 2009 draft.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2009
21
A-
188
20
0
6
16
26
1
0
.324
.382
.527
2010
22
A
412
37
0
8
30 58 1
0
.311
.360
.459

Although these prospects aren’t necessarily the next 9 players on the list, I will let readers know that Sean Ochinko finished 31st in the balloting. It hardly seems fair that he dropped out of the Top 30, as all Ochinko did was hit over .300 for the second straight year and win his second R. Howard Webster Award in his second year of professional baseball.

Drafted out of LSU in the 11th round, Ochinko had a strong year for Auburn in 2009. He hit .324/.382/.527 and led the Doubledays in all three stats. He was the team’s player of the month in August and finished second in the NY-Penn League in batting average and in OPS, with a .924 mark. This year, Ochinko hit .311/.360/.459 for Lansing. Among players with at least 250 plate appearances, he led the Lugnuts in batting average and finished second in OPS.

For the second straight year, Ochinko crushed left-handed pitching. After posting an OPS over 1.000 against southpaws last year, he hit .382/.410/.553 against lefties this year. He also finished strongly, putting up an OPS over .850 in each of the last three months of the season, after not breaking .760 during the first two months. This improvement coincides with Ochinko making more solid contact with the ball. He dropped his groundball rate from around 57-58% over the first two months to 41-47% during the latter three and improved his line drive rate into the double digits during each of those last three months. It seems that Ochinko was hitting the ball harder and with more elevation from June onwards, after he struggled during his first two months in Lansing.

Ochinko was primarily a catcher in high school, but he played mostly first base at LSU as the team won the 2009 College World Series. At Auburn, Ochinko split time almost evenly between catcher, first base and third base and the question coming into 2010 was how much time the team would give him at catcher. He played 45 of 109 games at catcher for the Lugnuts, as the team split playing time behind the plate between him, AJ Jimenez and Karim Turkmani. Ochinko also played 23 games at DH, 16 at first base and Lansing gave Ochinko 22 games at third base.

It’s hard to get a read on minor league fielding statistics, but nothing from Ochinko stands out (positively or negatively) compared to his teammates who also saw time at first and third. However, it does appear as if his arm is a potential issue, as he only threw out 25% of base stealers, compared to 35% for Turkmani and 53% for Jimenez. Runners attempted 64 steals off Ochinko in 45 games, compared to 66 in 59 off Jimenez and 40 steals in 38 games against Turkmani, demonstrating that teams appeared to target Ochinko as a catcher they could run against. Ochinko may never be a gold glover, but if he provide passable defence at both corners and, perhaps most importantly, at catcher, he’ll give himself every opportunity to keep progressing through the system. A player who can hit lefties well and is serviceable at three positions is useful, as a starter or off the bench.


Kellen Sweeney, SS
Born September 14, 1991. Selected in the 2nd round of the 2010 draft.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2010
19
R
45
3
1
1
15
12
0
1
.267
.450
.444

 Drafted 69th overall, Sweeney signed for an above-slot $600k.  The younger brother of Oakland OFer Ryan Sweeney, Kellen was highly thought of and showed why in a limited stint in the GCL.  Sweeney profiles as a high average hitter who will likely never hit for much power.  His defense has drawn positive reviews though his arm strength is down due to Tommy John surgery.  He is said to be an average to above-average baserunner.  Some scouts question whether second base might not be his ultimate position which would obviously deal a bit of a blow to his prospect status.  While he doesn't appear to be the type of guy who will skyrocket up these charts anytime soon, he is certainly intriguing and, at just 19, obviously has a few years of the minors ahead of him.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Check back next week for more minor league coverage.  On Tuesday we talk with Doug Davis, the Jays minor league field coordinator, and on Wednesday we talk with Dane Johnson, the Jays roving pitching instructor.

2010 Blue Jays Top Prospects: Prospects to Watch | 51 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
TamRa - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 07:32 AM EDT (#223902) #
No Farina?


Gerry - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 08:19 AM EDT (#223903) #

These are just personal picks of some of the writers.  It is not a next nine.  It's just some players who missed the top 30 that people wanted to write about.

Here is an idea.

If there is a player that hasn't been featured here over the last four days, why don't any of you write a similar summary for your favourite player?

rtcaino - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 08:20 AM EDT (#223904) #

Thanks for all the efforts MLU Crew!

Very much looking forward to next week's interviews.

Pistol - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#223909) #
I've seen the Overbay comparison given to Cooper a few times, but one thing to remember is that Overbay dominated his time in the minors.  Over 2000 ABs (exactly!) he hit .341 / .411 / .531.

Cooper in 1244 ABs has hit .274 / .348 / .435, and supposedly isn't much on D.

85bluejay - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#223911) #

My hope for Cooper is that he has a great season in LV, so AA can move him and salvage something - I

certainly don't see him as part of the Jays future - will be tough to move with teams emphasizing defence

more than ever.

Mike Green - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#223912) #
Excellent work, MLU crew. 

If I were to summarize the system, it would be: "a fair bit of premium pitching talent at various stages of development, plenty of catchers, but a relative shortage of other talent anywhere close to the major leagues.". 

Thomas - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#223913) #
No Farina?

From the lead-in: This list is in alphabetical order and shouldn't necessarily be considered the next 9 best prospects in the system.

brent - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#223914) #

Kenny Wilson, CF
Born January 30, 1990. Selected in the second round of the 2008 Draft.

YearAgeLevelAB2B3BHRBBKSBCSAVGOBPSLG 2008
17
Rk
162
6
2
0
20
60
25
3
.210
.319
.272
2009
18
Rk
25
2
1
0
3 8 3
1
.200
.310
.360

2009

18 A 321 12 3 4 35 99 37 12 .212 .306 .305 2010
19
A
361
10
4
0
51 112 35 11
.216
.326
.266
2010
19
A+
58
1
0
0
8
15
5
0
.138
.242
.155

 

Kenny Wilson was a toolsy pick from the 2008 draft. His development has been slow, but players that can play premium positions should be given every chance to fail. I really liked this pick at the time of the draft and still hope he can get his career jump started as he enters his 20's. He has to be viewed as a major disappointment in comparison to quite a few players the Jays picked after him. I wonder if Cito has a little spare time on his hands now...

brent - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#223915) #

Could someone post a template to use for the stats. It looked perfect in the preview after cutting and pasting, but it didn't work out when I submitted the comment.

Thanks!

MatO - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#223918) #

 Over 2000 ABs (exactly!) he hit .341 / .411 / .531.

Except that Overbay was drafted as a senior and was a year older at his minor league stops, not to mention that the only poor hitting environment he played in was the MWL for half a season as a 23 year old.  Otherwise it was the Pioneer League as a 22 year-old, El Paso in the TL as a 23-24 year-old and then Tuscon after that in the PCL.  Cooper's K rate was particularly low (actually his peripherals are similar to Overbay's) so there is a chance he could still that he could be a starting ML 1st baseman.  That's more than I can say about Mastroianni or Jeroloman.

Mike Green - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#223919) #
Brent,

Here's what you do.  In the comment screen, there is a toolbar above the comment screen.  The third icon from the left (a bold arrow pointing diagonally up) leads to the "full window screen".  Once you're on that screen, there is another toolbar with two rows of icons, the third icon from the left on the bottom row is an "insert/edit table".  Once you've got a table up in the full window screen, insert your data.  Once that is done, use the second icon from the left on the bottom row (a bold arrow pointing diagonally down) to navigate back to the comment screen. 
Mike Green - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#223920) #
I wanted to find out what the story was on Cooper's miserable BABIP, but unfortunately minorleaguesplits.com is down for the off-season.  Does anyone have any pop-up/line-drive data? 

I checked Mastroianni late in the season.  His LD rate was about 25%, and his pop-up rate was under 5%, which suggested that his batting average might be roughly sustainable. 

MatO - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#223921) #
RHP Farina was drafted in the 3rd round in 2007.  His major issue has been staying healthy which he did for the most part in 2010.  Between A+ and AA he gave up 25 hits in 55IP with 75K's.  In AA he only gave up 6H in 19IP with 28K's.  He was almost Tim Collins-like.  He also allowed only 1 hit to a LHB in AA.  He was certainly a better pitcher than either Magnusson or Farquhar in 2010.  I would be stunned if he wasn't put on the 40 man this off-season.
Mike Green - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#223922) #
Farina is a strikeout pitcher who has struggled for his control his entire minor league and collegiate career.  This year, he walked 20 and struck out 74 in 55 innings; these figures are easily the best that he has posted.  Farina's 5'11" and at last report, possessed a decent fastball and a good change-up. 
Jonny German - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#223923) #
In 2009 Farina struck out 5 and hit 2 batters in a single inning, conceding an unearned run. He holds the all-time NCAA record for hitting 4 triples in a single game (12 innings). Farina's vertical leap is 4'7". He once saved a baby from drowning. There are those who say beneath his coat there are wings.
Gerry - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#223924) #

Farina has been held back by injuries.  He has been on the DL at least twice a season for the last few years.  When he is healthy he is an excellent pitcher. 

Note that it is generally harder for relievers to make this list.  Most major league relievers were minor league starters and the Jays, like other teams, will put their premium prospects in a starters role to get more innings.  Farina might be an exception due to his brittleness.

Kenny Wilson is still learning how to switch hit.  There is hope for him but until he shows he has mastered switch hitting he misses the top 30.

Gerry - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#223925) #

Kyle Drabek is the only Jay on BA's Eastern league top 20 list.  I am surprised Zach Stewart didn't make it, as I read some of the scouting reports on those who did, Stewart appears better.

Eric Thames didn't make it as BA thinks he is a four A player.

ramone - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#223926) #

"Kyle Drabek is the only Jay on BA's Eastern league top 20 list.  I am surprised Zach Stewart didn't make it, as I read some of the scouting reports on those who did, Stewart appears better.

Eric Thames didn't make it as BA thinks he is a four A player"

Rather dissapointed and surprised that Stewart didn't make the list, Interesting with Thames as Keith Law called him a "non-prospect" as well.  I'm also somewhat surpirsed that Hechavarria did not make the list, does BA not allow a prospect on two different top 20 lists even if they have enough at bats or do they not think Hechavarria is a top 20 prospect in the Eastern league?

Chris DH - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#223927) #

Count me as suprised that Zach Stewart did not make the Top 20.

Players can be included on more than one Top 20 list - it depends on at-bats/innings pitched.  An example would be OF Mike Trout of the Angels who was the #1 prospect in 2 leagues.  In terms of Hechavarria, he will always be compared to SS Jose Iglesias of the Sox and he ended up at #17.  In the scouting report for Iglesias they actually discuss Hechavarria and how managers are split on who is better offensively.  Defensively, BA states that managers clearly prefered Iglesias.  However, I dont think this is a negative for Hechavarria as all the scouting reports have been being exceptional defensively with good range and being a bit of an acrobat.  Both seem to be exceptional defensively.  Mind you, I have to wonder why the Cuban team would move Iglesias to 2B in order to play Hechavarria at short? 

I have a hard time believing Andrew Brackman, at 24 years of age, is the 5th best prospect in the Eastern League - although he was definitely more consistent this year.  And I am surprised to see 3B Brandon Laird also 24 years of age at #11 - thought he was more of an organizational type player.

Mylegacy - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#223930) #
Aherns - in pre-season games on TV last spring he seemed to me like a pretty good 3rd baseman. His hitting has been a big disappointment - but that bat does have some thunder in it.

Cooper - I've been VERY VERY down on Cooper since he was drafted. Still quite negative. However - it would be great if a light has gone off and he's turning a corner. Defensively - I still think the guy is a DH.

Crouse & Marisnick - ever see a picture with the two of them side by side? Marisnick looks like Crouse's teen aged little brother. Not too many guys can make a 6'4" athletic guy look small(ish).

Thames - I've read a lot of comments on Thames that he is - at best - a platoon guy. For me - I'd like to see another healthy year in 2011 before we label the guy. He's an excellent athlete and could still really blossom. AND - 27 dingers in AA is not exactly chopped liver.

Farina - when all is said and done I think Farina will be better than either Farquhar (rated 22) or Magnuson (rated 24).

Mastroianni - a Reed Johnson type dirtbag. I'd VASTLY prefer him to Lewis in left - though I'd VASTLY prefer Snider in left to either of them.

Perez (C), Heck (SS), Pierre (2nd) and Gose (C) - our up the middle future? Defensively - sweet - very sweet. If Heck or Gose can move to the next level offensively with Perez - wonderful!

Stewart - everything is there - the stuff is outstanding - the question is control. He gets it and WOW - dare I say - he could be an ACE. He doesn't and at best he's a lights out closer but more likely (without the control) a right handed Purcey.

Hutchinson and Webb - both VERY INTERESTING.

Watching these 40 to 50 guys over the next couple of years is going to be areal joy. AND - I suspect AA might just add another one or two from the draft, international sign, and trades. Absolutely - yummy!

Gerry - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#223932) #

BA chat is underway:

John Manual compares Thames to Luke Scott and likes him, says he was one of the last cuts from the top 20.

Stewart didn't make it because scouts saw him as a bullpen guy.

TamRa - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#223936) #
From the lead-in: This list is in alphabetical order and shouldn't necessarily be considered the next 9 best prospects in the system.

Oh I understand, i was just in a hurry and tossing out a name i hadn't already mentioned yesterday - for instance Lowen isn't here either.

in point of fact, Farina isn't in my top 30 either, just wondered about the distance between him and Farquhar/Magnuson given the similarity of results (and that Gailey got a mention)

But mainly that was just bait to say "someone comment on this guy"
TamRa - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#223937) #

John Manual compares Thames to Luke Scott and likes him, says he was one of the last cuts from the top 20.

Stewart didn't make it because scouts saw him as a bullpen guy.


I don't get that - if he's a potential bullpen guy he is, by all reports, a potential top shelf closer....if it was  a Papelbon (or more precisely, Bard) he would have gotten ranked even if he profiled out of the pen.


Seems inconsistant to me.

I actually kinda like the Scott comparison for Thames. It's not like I saw him as an all-star bu6t Scott is a pretty useful guy.


Ducey - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#223940) #

 I was encouraged by Ahrens dramatic improvement once he stopped switch hitting.  He still has a chance.

Mike Green - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#223942) #
BA is what BA is.  It is important to note that Stewart threw 136 innings this year as a starter this year, and that there is disagreement on whether his stuff will work out of the rotation (my own instinct is that it depends on when you see him).   There is however no reason to believe (from either his stuff/command or his minor league performance) that he cannot be a either a decent-to-good starter or a high leverage reliever.  If that doesn't make a top 20 league list, that is one helluva league.
metafour - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#223946) #
That Kellen Sweeney scouting report is way off.  He was drafted as a 3rd baseman (that is the position that was called out when we called our pick in) and played 3B in every GCL game he played in.  Callis made it very clear prior to the draft that most scouts didn't think that 2B was going to be an option for him.  The power will play at third with his hitting skills (ie: the comment about him not hitting for much power is off).  Its not plus power by any means, but it is solid-average power combined with an above-average feel for hitting.  No question, he has the upside to be an everyday third baseman as he also runs fairly well and should be able to field well too.

That writeup is selling him short big time.  We held a workout pre-draft with a lot of top HS kids (including 1st rounder Yellich, Kris Bryant, Tony Wolters, etc.) and Sweeney stood out big time.

metafour - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#223948) #

Stewart didn't make it because scouts saw him as a bullpen guy.

This should be taken with a huge asterisk because it depends greatly on when these scouts saw him.  Stewart had a mechanical flaw in the first half of his season and his results were poor.  He was a rock in the second half however and improved in every aspect after they fixed his delivery.  Obviously if the report is from earlier this season then its not going to be overly positive.  Keith Law saw him in his last start (in which he dominated) and said his changeup was surprisingly good (ie: the pitch that will determine whether he starts or relieves). This is important because BA also said that scouts had Drabek sitting at 90-91mph at one point this year, yet we saw him hitting 94mph consistently up until the 4th or 5th inning when he came up late.

John Northey - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#223950) #
Looking back to the 2004 top 30 list one wonders what happened to these guys and what it means for this years top 30.

1. Aaron Hill, SS - big success
2. Josh Banks, RHP - has service time
3. Brandon League, RHP - doing OK
4. Francisco Rosario, RHP - has service time
5. Shaun Marcum, RHP - big success
6. Gustavo Chacin, LHP - started good, then...sigh
7. Dustin McGowan RHP - see above
8. Jamie Vermilyea, RHP - has service time
9. John Hattig, 3B - has service time
10. David Purcey, LHP - doing OK
11. Adam Peterson, RHP - nada
12. Vito Chiaravalloti, 1B - nada
13. Raul Tablado, IF - nada
14. Robinzon Diaz, C - some ML service time
15. Vince Perkins, RHP - nada
16. Davis Romero, LHP - has service time
17. Ismael Ramirez, RHP - nada
18. Curtis Thigpen, C - did OK
T19. Carlo Cota, 2B/3B - nada
T19. Ryan Roberts, 3B - did OK
21. Miguel Negron, OF - nada
22. Ron Davenport, OF - nada
23. Tom Mastny, RHP - did OK
24. John-Ford Griffin, OF - big flop
25. Jason Arnold, RHP - big flop
26. Chi-hung Cheng, LHP - nada
27. Bubbie Buzachero, RHP - nada
28. Adam Lind, 1B - big success
29. Yuber Rodriquez, OF - nada
30. Jordan De Jong, RHP - nada

With 'rising' for Zach Jackson LHP, Ryan Klosterman SS, Brian Hall 2B, Brian Reed RHP, Christian Snavely OF.

Interesting list. The top 30 has 3 big successes (Hill/Marcum/Lind), 2 'could've been special' (Chacin/McGowan), 5 who did OK (League, Purcey, Thigpen, Mastny, Roberts), 6 who had service time, and 12 'nada' (ie: never got a ML paycheque), and 2 big flops (Griffin & Arnold who were expected to be something special). All subject to changes of course.

I list big success as being regulars long enough to get a big paycheque. OK can still shift up (League & Purcey land here) or have at least had a full season or equivalent. Some service time is pretty much a September call-up or 100 PA type guy.

So, from this years group who will be the Lind (low rank but could emerge)? Who will be the Hill/Marcum (expected success and have it)? Who will be the flop (Griffin/Arnold)?
Matthew E - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#223951) #
Hold on: Peterson and De Jong both had cups of coffee in the majors, didn't they?

And I don't know if it's worth noting that for Arnold and Cheng it was injuries that brought them down.

Mike Green - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#223953) #
Pitchers who never made it due to injuries?  The saying from the Wire comes to mind: "it's all in the game."
metafour - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#223955) #
Looking back to the 2004 top 30 list one wonders what happened to these guys and what it means for this years top 30.

Doesn't mean anything as our system was garbage back then, and combined with the yearly BattersBox tendency of overrating average or non-prospects, you have a terrible looking class.  Josh Banks #2? The guy never had better than #4/#5 type stuff.  Chacin Top 6? Another junkballer who fluked his way to some success.
China fan - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#223957) #
Curtis Thigpen was a well-regarded 2nd-round draft pick who got only 131 plate appearances in the majors and seems to have disappeared by the age of 25.  So I wouldn't say he "did OK" -- it's probably more accurate to put him in the "big flop" or "some service time" category.
Mike Green - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#223960) #
The system was not "garbage" in 2004.  There were players who were not considered to have tremendous "upside" like Hill, Lind and Marcum who have done very well, and players who were considered to have great upside like Rosario, McGowan and League who have not.  Sometimes it works the other way.  If one is a fan of the Pirates or Royals, "doofus" and "garbage" are understandable. 



John Northey - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#223961) #
Actually, I had it all written out after checking each guy, then my machine crashed so I just rewrote it from memory (outside of copy/pasting the names/positions for the top 30) so a few cups of coffee might have happened where I listed nada.

Thigpen I thought played for the Sox for a full season but that was someone else - Kevin Cash who has had over 700 PA now with a 37 OPS+ and has played for every AL East team except Baltimore. Dumb mistake.
John Northey - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#223963) #
Well, it is a method to calm down the excitement some feel over prospects every year. I remember when many thought Matt Stark would be something special :P

To get an idea of how things are for prospects BA's top 100 in pre-2005 (same as the window I picked) had Hill, League, Quiroz for the Jays.
Pre-2004: Rios, McGowan, Quiroz, Gross, Rosario, Hill (in that order, Hill was #96).
Pre-2003: McGowan, Werth, Arnold.
Pre-2002: Phelps, Werth, Gross, Hudson, McGowan.
Pre-2001: Wells, Felipe Lopez, Joe Lawrence
Pre-2000: Wells, Lopez, Izturis
Pre-1999: Halladay, Koch, Lopez, Wells
Pre-1998: Halladay, Wells, Witt
Pre-1997: Halladay, Carpenter, Shannon Stewart, Kelvim Escobar, Koch (nice list)
Pre-1996: Janzen, Stewart, Carpenter, Jose Pett
Pre-1995: Green, Alex Gonzalez, Jose Silva, Stewart, Angel (Sandy) Martinez, Carpenter
Pre-1994: Gonzalez, Delgado (both top 5), Silva (#10), Green, DJ Boston, Paul Spoljaric

So Ash actually had a fair number of good prospects (as far as BA felt) when he took over pre-1995. When JP took over pre-2002 there were a few but not the same caliber (Phelps was #36, Wells was as high as 4th overall). Sad to go over that list and think of what should've been in the late 90's - how the heck was that blown so badly? IMO the first big sign was hiring the wrong Johnson to manage (an example of how one poor choice can hurt big time - the Yankees were darn good but it wasn't like today).
metafour - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#223965) #
The system was not "garbage" in 2004.

They did a good job of finding guys that overshot expectations big time in that class, but the system overall was flat out poor.  #8, 9, and 10 on BA's list that year were Zach Jackson, Josh Banks, and Gustavo Chacin....three junkball pitchers who's career upside was that of a #4 starter, at best? We had a few guys with high upsides who flamed out, but after that small group almost everyone else had the upside of a fringe major leaguer...that is the sign of a weak system. 
Mylegacy - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#223968) #
Metafour - I always thought the sign of a weak system was when you were wearing Depends - but then I guess it depends - on what you're talking about.
TamRa - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#223969) #
Looking back to the 2004 top 30 list one wonders what happened to these guys and what it means for this years top 30.

Before you look too far you have to remeber that the very best scouts very best review of the very best system this year will have over half of the 30 guys NOT amount to anything, tis the nature of the beast. that said:
(the ones I call over-ranked here are guys I thought were over-ranked at the time, unless otherwise noted)

1. Aaron Hill, SS - big success
2. Josh Banks, RHP - has service time (Was badly over-rated in the first place)
3. Brandon League, RHP - doing OK
4. Francisco Rosario, RHP - has service time (injuries, probably not all that went wrong but still)
5. Shaun Marcum, RHP - big success
6. Gustavo Chacin, LHP - started good, then...sigh (again, injuries, albeit had low ceiling)
7. Dustin McGowan RHP - see above (we all know...)
8. Jamie Vermilyea, RHP - has service time (over-ranked)
9. John Hattig, 3B - has service time (over-ranked)
10. David Purcey, LHP - doing OK (should have been better, hope he ends up being a god closer)
11. Adam Peterson, RHP - nada (can't account for this)
12. Vito Chiaravalloti, 1B - nada (I had a hunch he'd be good but I and the list over-ranked him)
13. Raul Tablado, IF - nada (raw guys sometimes fail)
14. Robinzon Diaz, C - some ML service time (I was never as high on him as others but this was an appropriate rank)
15. Vince Perkins, RHP - nada )Dunno here, injuries? he got a lot of good press)
16. Davis Romero, LHP - has service time (i really believed in him, he had injuries)
17. Ismael Ramirez, RHP - nada (never believed in him, but in this system i could see him at this rank)
18. Curtis Thigpen, C - did OK (I thought he was better than this but was wrong)
T19. Carlo Cota, 2B/3B - nada - (over-ranked)
T19. Ryan Roberts, 3B - did OK - did better than I expected)
21. Miguel Negron, OF - nada - for a former first rounder I'd have ranked him higher maybe, but his work was pretty ugly)
22. Ron Davenport, OF - nada (what can you expect this low?)
23. Tom Mastny, RHP - did OK (meh)
24. John-Ford Griffin, OF - big flop (surprised to see him this low, i kinda believed in him)
25. Jason Arnold, RHP - big flop (indeed, even getting this far down the list was a failure given his clippings)
26. Chi-hung Cheng, LHP - nada (i expected ths guy to be good, ranked him higher)
27. Bubbie Buzachero, RHP - nada (meh)
28. Adam Lind, 1B - big success (too low obviously, lol)
29. Yuber Rodriquez, OF - nada (rawness tends to fail a lot)
30. Jordan De Jong, RHP - nada (meh)

With 'rising' for Zach Jackson LHP, Ryan Klosterman SS, Brian Hall 2B, Brian Reed RHP, Christian Snavely OF.

Only Jackson there was a guy who seemed promising to me.  Still, even with all the disappointments, when you get four very good players (five if McGowan stays healthy, six if Purcey finds a groove in relief) off a list of 30 - especially what's basically a fan list and not done by professionals, I doubt that is far off the normal rate.

My guess is that the current top 30 has more than five future "very good " players but all such lists look that way when they are made, I can remember BA top 10 lists that look like at least 8 sure things....and only maybe three were special.
actionjackson - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#223972) #
Well, it is a method to calm down the excitement some feel over prospects every year. I remember when many thought Matt Stark would be something special :P

How about Silvestre Campusano? The "CF of the future" who moved Lloyd Moseby to LF for well...er...a little while in 1988. It is far from a precise science, but it is fun to speculate, anticipate, and create batting orders and pitching staffs isn't it?  ;)
John Northey - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#223974) #
So true, so true.

I know back in the 80's I used to imagine an outfield with Rob Ducey, Sil Campusano, Glenallin Hill or Geronimo Berroa (36 HR in AA at 22). Infield of 1B: McGriff, 2B: Liriano, SS: Lee, 3B: Gruber. CA: Myers, DH: Fielder. Rotation with Steve Davis (first guy in Jays system to win 20), Joe Johnson, Todd Stottlemyre, David Wells, Doug Linton, Pat Hentgen, Alex Sanchez and Duane Ward.

Some made it, many didn't, a few shifted roles. Kind of surprising to see how many did though. These guys were either rookies in 1987 or in the Jays minors that year.

To give an idea of how things have changed... Berroa was called up in September but good ol' Jimy Williams never let him play in a single game. Berroa is an odd one - didn't get 150 PA until age 29 in Oakland but had a 131 OPS+ followed by a 116, 117, 120 as a regular then dropped to 217 PA at 33 with a 62 OPS+ and would have just 108 PA left in his career. Hentgen had 188 IP at age 18 in full-season A. Craig McMurtry threw 131 IP in AA/AAA with a K rate of 2.1/9 IP. Wow. Not to be outdone was Tom Filer with a 1.2 K/9 IP over 68 1/3 IP.

Gotta love Baseball Reference - saves me hunting down my old reference books from the mid-80's. :)
Mylegacy - Saturday, October 09 2010 @ 12:00 AM EDT (#223976) #
actionjackson - not only did Sil Campusano move Moseby to left he also moved Bell to DH - Bell was SO pissed he hit three homers on opening day aganst KC (if my ancient mind remembers correctly).

In addition, Sil PERMANENTLY soured me on "5 tool prospects" - I've never really trusted them since. Give me a two tool; hit, hit for power, guy any time - even with just average speed I want him. Let these five tool, undersized, skinny, gymnast, jerks go play beach volleyball. Unless of course one of them actually produces for the Jays - in which case I want it known - I was for the guy from the beginning! Interestingly, one or both of Gose or Marisnick might be just the guy(s).

TamRa - Saturday, October 09 2010 @ 12:25 AM EDT (#223977) #
Actually, Rios was just that sort of guy...he didn't max out his tools but he did produce some value.


Kelekin - Saturday, October 09 2010 @ 02:51 AM EDT (#223978) #
One more comment on Sweeney, it's interesting that his plate discipline wasn't mentioned.  Scouts praised his batter's eye and it was the trait he showed off the most in his short stint in rookie ball.
actionjackson - Saturday, October 09 2010 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#223981) #
actionjackson - not only did Sil Campusano move Moseby to left he also moved Bell to DH - Bell was SO pissed he hit three homers on opening day aganst KC (if my ancient mind remembers correctly).

Mylegacy - Got back to you as quickly as I could, because it can be quite disconcerting to have the status of one's ancient mind left in the lurch so to speak.  ;)  You are indeed correct: On opening day, against Bret Saberhagen no less:  3 for 4, 3 HR, 4 RBI. I watched that one and none of them were cheapies. It was like George saw Jimy Williams' head instead of the ball and he wasn't missing. Jimy got the message and put him in LF the next day and he went 5 for 5 with 3 R, 2 2B, and an RBI. 8 for 9 two days in to the season! After those two games his WPA was 0.605 and he had 6.85 RE24 (Base-Out Runs Added). He would finish the season with a 0.549 WPA and -10.92 RE24. Final games played by position:  LF: 149,   DH: 7. Maybe Jimy should've kept him mad. Just a thought. It might've either ripped the team apart or George might've carried them to the postseason...Or both.  ;)  Ah, good times
Mylegacy - Saturday, October 09 2010 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#223984) #
Over at his site - John Sickels says that both Thames and Stewart should have made the BA Eastern League Top Prospects list.

I'm sure we all agree.

actionjackson - Saturday, October 09 2010 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#223986) #
Over at his site - John Sickels says that both Thames and Stewart should have made the BA Eastern League Top Prospects list.

I'm a bit of a village idiot when it comes to these things, but I know enough to know that he knows his prospects. Good to hear. I'm rooting big time for Thames in particular because I like his intelligence and adaptability. Those are two things that are A) impossible to quantify and B) can take a player with an OK toolbox and turn him into a solid major leaguer. JPR seemed to come up with a lot of players in the draft that were strong in these two areas. So many in fact, that one wonders if that was something that he specifically looked for, or something that fell into his lap due to his college heavy drafting strategy or a little bit of both.
tercet - Sunday, October 10 2010 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#223996) #
Sean Ochinko having wrist surgery on tuesday according to his facebook page, so maybe he was playing hurt a good part of the year..
Alex Obal - Sunday, October 10 2010 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#223997) #
Metafour - I always thought the sign of a weak system was when you were wearing Depends - but then I guess it depends - on what you're talking about.

Cuttlefish!

Thanks for a great job all season, minor league crew.

Jdog - Monday, October 11 2010 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#224017) #
Bring on some Dane!
Chris DH - Tuesday, October 12 2010 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#224050) #

More on the BA Eastern League rankings.

It seems John Manuel who prepared this leagues rankings was surprised Stewart did not make the Top 20.  Part of the reasoning, as Gerry mentioned, was that scouts thought he was destined for the bullpen due to having only 2 quality pitches and not having the ability to change speeds well enough for a starting role.  It may also, in part, be due to the fact scouts - rightly or wrongly - dont see room for him in the Blue Jays starting rotation and assume he is earmarked for the Jays bullpen sooner rather than later.  However, from reading between the lines it would seem John admits to selling Stewart short and that he was a pretty close call for the Top 20 anyway.

John also mentions that Eric Thames was one of the last cuts from the 20 and would be in the 21-25 range. 

Also, it seems John didnt see much difference between #17 Iglesias and Hechavarria, as in the chat he suggests: "Again, not a lot of seperation."

Lastly, in the Ask BA section they have ranking of the # of players that have appeared in the Top 20 lists.  They admit its not a perfect way to evaluate a system but there is a correlation between this and the strength of the system. 

Rangers - 18

Rays - 15

Dodgers, Mariners, Red Sox, Rockies, Yankees - 14

Blue Jays - 13

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2010/2610782.html

ayjackson - Tuesday, October 12 2010 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#224051) #

Those 13 from Top 20's don't include Deck McGuire, Aaron Sanchez, Asher Wojceichowski, Noah Syndergaard, Adonis Cardona, Zach Stewart, JP Arencibia or Eric Thames.  So the Jays system definitely looks strong.

  1. Jake Marisnick (R)
  2. Kellen Sweeney (R)
  3. KC Hobson (R)
  4. Chris Hawkins (R)
  5. Carlos Perez (SS)
  6. Drew Hutchison (SS)
  7. Daniel Webb (SS)
  8. Chad Jenkins (A)
  9. Travis D'Arnaud (A+)
  10. Anthony Gose (A+)
  11. Adeiny Hechavarria (A+)
  12. Henderson Alvarez (A+)
  13. Kyle Drabek (AA)

That's the thirteen so far.  Do we assume then that JP Arencibia did not make the Top 20 PCL prospects?  I'd have a hard time believing that.

 

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