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Toronto's AFL affiliate, the Peoria Javelinas, played in the championship game on Saturday and lost 3-2 to Scottsdale. Let's finish up our AFL coverage by looking at how the Jays representatives performed over the month-and-a-half-long season.

Wednesday, November 17 - Phoenix 10 Peoria 4

Adam Loewen: 1-3, 2 BB
Eric Thames: 2-5, HR, 2 K

Thursday, November 18 - Peoria 1 Scottsdale 0

Adam Loewen: 1-2, BB
Mike McDade: 1-3
Matt Daly: 1 IP

Championship Game: Scottsdale 3 Peoria 2

Adam Loewen: 3-3, BB
Mike McDade: 1-4, K
Alan Farina: 1 IP, H, BB, 2 K

-----

Tabular Stats!

The big stand-out in Arizona was Mike McDade. Even though Keith Law doesn't like his body, McDade hit extremely well in the AFL, and we shouldn't just dismiss that performance. McDade's ridiculous batting line was probably fueled by an abnormally high BABIP, as evidenced by his .375 batting average, but the improvement that stands out most is his 11:13 BB:K ratio. In the regular season, Mike struck out 141 times against just 27 walks while playing at Dunedin, and that kind of performance at A+ doesn't often translate to major league success, so if his batting eye is improving that can only be taken as a good sign. McDade should be ready for AA to start next year.

Of course, remember the sample size is so small that, if we were to estimate McDade's ability from the stats, it should be something like 70% 2010, 20% 2009, 10% 2010 AFL. (Those numbers are completely off the top of my head, if someone has a more scientific way to do it please share!)

As for the other hitters: Adam Loewen also hit very well, albeit with a high K rate (and an accompanyingly high BB rate), though in fewer at bats than the everyday players. Eric Thames performed just OK for the level we expect him to be at, and struck out a lot. John Tolisano was on fire for 24 at bats (on two different teams), and Adeiny Hechavarria barely played as a result of an injury.

Not much to report on the pitching side of things. Marc Rzepczynski was great, but he should be great in the AFL. The "Squirrel Nut Zepper" will be competing with Kyle Drabek for the fifth rotation spot in 2010, and if he doesn't get that job, will likely get a bunch of spot starts as starters get injured/shut down/whatever.

Matt Daly was horrible and Alan Farina was lights out, in about 10 innings each. Dan Farquhar was also in the AFL but was recently traded to Oakland.
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92-93 - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 02:10 PM EST (#226146) #
I hope Rzepczynski isn't competing with Drabek for the last spot - in a perfect world the big 4 from last year are healthy and ready to go and you supplement them with Zep or Litsch, leaving Drabek back in AAA to slow down the clock and wait for an injury. I of course am working under the assumption they don't intend to make the moves to compete in 2011, because if they did I would want Drabek up from the start. Otherwise you Buster Posey him and keep him down despite the fact everybody knows damn well he's one of your top 5 SP and deserves to be with the big boys.
Mike Green - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 02:15 PM EST (#226147) #
Buster Posey was weird.  The Giants kept him down long past the service year deadline (at the end of April), and were fortunate that that particular decision did not come back to haunt them.  Drabek can certainly be given the Evan Longoria treatment though.
92-93 - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 02:36 PM EST (#226152) #
Withholding Super2 from elite players can really help also - that extra year of arbitration can be worth quite a lot, like the value of a Hechavarria-type signing. The 2 starts Cecil made in AAA in 2010 might save the Jays quite a bit of coin down the road because he had 128 days of service entering 2010, and this year's Super 2 cutoff was 2.125. Snider entered 2010 at 0.126 and spent 13 days optioned to AAA so he too might fall out of Super2 range, assuming he's around 1.120 now (a MLB season has more days in it than you can accrue as service time so you can't just subtract 13 from a full season). Does anyone know when Cot's updates their service time figures?
Matthew E - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 02:36 PM EST (#226153) #
But is Drabek really ready? I mean ready ready, not just kinda ready.
92-93 - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 02:37 PM EST (#226154) #
He looked ready enough to my untrained eye in 2010 that it's time for the rest of his growth to happen at the MLB level.
Dave Rutt - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 02:43 PM EST (#226156) #
Yeah, the readiness is what I was referring to. Drabek clearly doesn't need to compete for a long-term spot in the rotation, but I could see him starting the year in the minors.
Mike Green - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 02:49 PM EST (#226158) #
The Super-2 thing is about modest amounts, and if you are going to try to compete in the AL East,  you really cannot afford to hold down a player who is ready for the extra 6 weeks.  I agree with Keith Law on this point.

As for Drabek's readiness, it is a judgment call.  The issue is whether his control could be usefully sharpened in triple A (seeing as he would apparently prefer to be there starting than in the major league bullpen).

92-93 - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 02:54 PM EST (#226159) #
I don't consider 5-10m modest amounts.

I just listened to Votto on 590 with Lajoie and when he asked Votto about being scouted as a Toronto high-schooler, Votto seemed eager to point out that the Blue Jays were not following him at all, that it was only the Reds and, of all teams, the Yankees who were in on him. Could just be me but I sensed an underlying bitterness there from Votto, that a Toronto baseball player can't even get some looks from his hometown team. If true, not good.
Flex - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 03:06 PM EST (#226161) #
I heard the very same tone from Votto in an interview with McCowan. It's a tone that says "Toronto? Ha! They completely ignored me."

But Votto sounds smart enough to be able to make the distinction between administrations, if the concern is for future possibilities.
Mylegacy - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 03:43 PM EST (#226167) #
McDade - he'll start 2011 as the starting 1st baseman in AA as a 21 year old - turns 22 on May 8th 2011. KLaw says he has a bad body - the guy is 6'1" 260 pounds - bound to have an extra pound or two - n'est  pas? I think the guy has some serious upside - with all the usual and substantial down risks. But remember this - power is usually the last tool to come - by the time this guy is entering his age 24 season I think there is a chance we've got ourselves a Cecil Fielder. Not so worse.

Loewen - in the final game of the AFL he got 3 hits. All 3 were squibs - the real story of that game was the way he stood in against very good left handed pitching all day. He stood tall, and never even once made an awkward bent over swing at an outside pitch - wish he could teach that to Wells. I think we could lose him in the Rule 5 draft - he is closer than many are letting on.

Farina - drafted in the 5th round of the 2007 draft he was lights out in 2008, pretty icky in 2009 and in 55.2 innings in 2010 at HiA and AA he was lights out - home and dusted. In the AFL he was lovely. The bad news is the guy will enter 2011 as a 24 year old - turning 25 on August 9th 2011. His fast ball tops out at 93, he's got very sweet off-speed stuff - his time is NOW. I'd push the guy HARD. Make or break time. I see him in the pen by June and for years to come.

Drabek - he's turning into a combination of Marcum/Cecil/Romero - the guy will be good - very good - but not elite. Is he ready now? I'd prefer to see Scrabble win the 5th spot in spring with Drabek up by June, or the when injuries or performance call. IF Drabek forces the issue - that would be a very good omen - for two reasons - Drabek in the rotation and Scrabble filling the Tallet role of long man in the pen - a win win as I see it.

sam - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 03:48 PM EST (#226169) #
Ya if memory serves me right, that was around the time the Riccardi era was coming to full force. When current Blue Jays officials say something along the lines of "we didn't invest many resources into that area" in reference to high school talent under Riccardi. They're really saying we didn't invest anything. Even at the serious showcases that Walt Burrows put on back then, you'd never see a Blue Jays scout. I think that's now changed, the Jays under Anthopolous recognize that there is talent in Canada and it's important to draft it. Of course the irony of this all is that, although this is no knock on Joey, but I think the general consensus was that the Reds drafted him as high as they did because he agreed to sign at well-below slot.

There were a couple stories I remember hearing. One was Joey got invited down to Cincinnati for a workout. I think they had also invited their first rounder that year Ryan Wagner. Wagner blew fastballs by Joey but he threw him a change up and Joey crushed it into the right field stands.

I know Bob Smythe had a lot to do with Joey's development. I'm not too sure about his handling. This is simply a guess, probably an uneducated one at that, but Bob was a scout for the Seattle Mariners at the time. I know he had connections to the Blue Jays, especially under Pat Gillick. Bob told me a story of working with Kelvim Escobar and how Kelvim had a penchant of fiddling with grips and not telling catchers which often resulted in injury or catchers refusing to catch him. Anyways, Bob might have advised Joey about certain organizations or because the scouting community is so close, might have tipped off another scout. I don't know, but I think the Blue Jays lack of scouting of Joey was not personal, just the product of a huge void in the organization.
cybercavalier - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 04:09 PM EST (#226172) #
Talking about Canadian players.

I think Jesse Crain from the Twins had been offered arb; Is there a chance the Jays can sign or get into talks with him if he doesn't accept arb? Or the switch-hitting Luke Carlin to catch?

lexomatic - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 04:43 PM EST (#226178) #


I just listened to Votto on 590 with Lajoie and when he asked Votto about being scouted as a Toronto high-schooler, Votto seemed eager to point out that the Blue Jays were not following him at all, that it was only the Reds and, of all teams, the Yankees who were in on him.


When I went to highschool in Toronto in the early 90s, every year the Yankees sent a form letter to the head coach of the baseball team. It was a blank scouting form, and there were a few general questions  about whether any players were worth scouting. I don't remember, I only saw it once briefly, when I was on the team in gr 12 (and heard it was an annual event.) All it probably took was a coach sending a letter or fax back to the Yankees, saying "we have this kid Joey Votto you should check out." or something to that effect. While I don't konw what the Jays do in terms of local scouting, it always seemed to me like an easy and worthwhile filtering system that the Jays could do to scout their back yard.
BumWino - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 05:04 PM EST (#226179) #
Der kleine Mennonite foon Kanada, Herr Loewen, spiel faer Toronto Blue Jays.  Ir hob lieb faer groise essen und--och!--ir ken spielen baseball sehr gute mit der groise fastballwurfer kerthumpen.  Es iz alles gute!
BumWino - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 05:12 PM EST (#226180) #
I didn't know the Mennonite word for "bat," so I made up the word, "kerthumpen".   Seemed to have a nice ring to it.  Just a quick explanation for anyone who can speak Blue Jay, er, pigeon Mennonite.
Magpie - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 06:00 PM EST (#226181) #
is Drabek really ready? I mean ready ready, not just kinda ready

He looked ready enough

Yeah, the readiness


Oh, you guys are just asking for this...

We defy augury;
there's a special providence in the fall of a sparrow.
If it be now, 'tis not to come;
if it be not to come, it will be now;
if it be not now, yet it will come:
the readiness is all.

sam - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 06:02 PM EST (#226182) #
When I went to highschool in Toronto in the early 90s, every year the Yankees sent a form letter to the head coach of the baseball team. It was a blank scouting form, and there were a few general questions about whether any players were worth scouting. I don't remember, I only saw it once briefly, when I was on the team in gr 12 (and heard it was an annual event.) All it probably took was a coach sending a letter or fax back to the Yankees, saying "we have this kid Joey Votto you should check out." or something to that effect. While I don't konw what the Jays do in terms of local scouting, it always seemed to me like an easy and worthwhile filtering system that the Jays could do to scout their back yard.


I don't think professional teams do this any more. Most players now get their exposure through "elite" baseball teams that play on weekends and travel significantly. I don't think many of the top players now even play high school baseball in Ontario. My understanding is that it becomes a credibility thing. Coaches will only refer players to scouts whom they think have a legitimate shot at playing professionally. Coaches don't want to lose credibility with scouts as they might lose respect within the community and the possibility of hosting showcases. Elite level baseball in many ways has become a highly competitive business in Ontario. Not only are prices to play on elite level teams like the Ontario Blue Jays quite steep, but much of what they are selling is a track record of placing kids in Junior Colleges in the US and exposure. As a result, programs are competing against each others track records not just on the field. This tends to lead to competing claims of responsibility for a player's success. I know of a particular coach/owner in the Hamilton area who was extremely boisterous in claiming sole responsibility for Joey Votto's success.

Scouting networks now are so extensive that rarely do players slip through the cracks or there are Dave Stieb moments. As someone who has gone through the process, my experience was that at the age of sixteen scouts will start to follow you. You'll generally gain first exposure at major tournaments in early spring. If a particular scout is interested, they'll make a note to check in on you later on that summer. At that point, if they're still interested they'll have you fill in a detailed scouting card, age, weight, height, injuries, etc. They'll start having talks with coaches and invite you to particular showcases that they might be running. Seventeen is usually the big year for high school baseball players where scouts will look hardest and evaluations are made. The spring of draft year is sometimes merely a formality to check in to see that you haven't regressed and to inquire about commitment. Because elite tournaments offer the stiffest competition, scouting is usually done there. In my time playing high school baseball, I only saw two scouts, and both were there to see Tim Smith play, who I believe is now in the Kansas City Royals system.

Of course the elite players travel with Team Canada's youth program and some simply migrate to the states at 16. There obviously isn't a set way in which one gets exposure or drafted. I firmly believe that if you're good enough, they'll come, as clearly demonstrated with Joey. The important thing is to connect with proper baseball people who are solely interested in development and teaching.
stevieboy22 - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 06:47 PM EST (#226189) #
The important thing is to connect with proper baseball people who are solely interested in development and teaching.

But that's rarely the case, everyone is looking to make a buck. I really enjoyed your write up. It seems a little crazy that in order to make it these days in Ontario you almost need to play for a touring team. From what I have heard, many of these teams charge like 20 grand to have your kid play with them.


Richard S.S. - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 06:54 PM EST (#226191) #
But is Drabek really ready? I mean ready ready, not just kinda ready.   He looked ready enough to my untrained eye in 2010 that it's time for the rest of his growth to happen at the MLB level.   Yeah, the readiness is what I was referring to. Drabek clearly doesn't need to compete for a long-term spot in the rotation, but I could see him starting the year in the minors.

Kyle Drabek needs to make his bones in AAA Las Vegas.   He needs to deal with all the bad crap that happens in the PCL.   He pitched 158 innings in 2009, his first full season after TJ Surgery.   He pitched 179 innings in 2010, AAA / MLB combined.  

He needs to pitch 200 innings in AAA in 2011 so he can pitch 221 in 2012 (post-season).   Let's find out in 2011 exactly how good Rzepczynski and Litsch can be.   It may just be posssible this discussion could be meaningless if AA acquires Justin Upton.


Gerry - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 08:43 PM EST (#226196) #

People are assuming that the Drabek they saw at the end of the season will be the same Drabek they see in the spring.  The advantage of giving Drabek the three starts at the end of the season is that he has learned what he needs to improve.  Drabek generally threw his curve in the dirt, that worked in AA but major league hitters will learn not to chase that pitch.  Drabek could refine his curve over the winter to give him a pitch he can throw for a strike.  He might also refine some of his other pitches, or add a pitch, as he learned the cutter the previous winter.  I would assume he will be out for some fatherly coaching over the winter.

I assume the Drabek we see in March will be better than the September Drabek.  He may still go to AAA but a young starter can improve measurably with some major league experience.

 

bpoz - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 08:55 PM EST (#226198) #
I read about the Brewers having "training sessions" after Christmas for any level player, it was optional and some ML players took advantage to get ready for the season.

There was an old (2003?) interview with J Fraser where he said a good 3 week stretch or something could get you promoted. He then explained how things happened for him. We could have surprise performances, that will be filed for future reference.

I don't know how serious competition in ST really is. I think there was competition for Closer in 2010 ST, and Zep, Cecil for 1 spot, each eliminated himself through injury. In 2009 1 spot which Romero took after getting demoted to the minor league complex, Halladay, Litch, Richmond & Purcey had the other 4 pretty much guaranteed.

If the big 4 are still Jays & healthy, I see the 5th spot as a cannot lose choice because we have multiple good candidates. So V Good & deep SP all year long I hope will translate into more wins.
Hodgie - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 09:19 PM EST (#226200) #
I believe a very wise bird once said that a pitcher only has so many bullets, so if he has proven capable of pitching at the MLB level all you are doing is wasting bullets by keeping him in the minors. At this point all Drabek is going to learn in Vegas is that all those ground balls he induces move really fast on that patch of concrete that passes for an infield. I for one would much rather he complete his apprenticeship under the watchful eyes of Walton, Hentgen and Farrel in anticipation of 2012 and beyond. If he needs to work on controlling his curveball, it might help to do it in Toronto where his curveball might actually curve....

sam - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 09:24 PM EST (#226201) #
I agree, those types are a dime a dozen. In fairness, however, these organizations are run like a business and require a significant amount of investment in time and capital. Indoor facilities are extremely expensive as is travel, fields, umpires... the whole bit. To hear $20,000 doesn't surprise me. Gone are the days when amateur scouts would select a regions top players and simply hit the road during the summer. I could be wrong in this, but the precursor to the current Ontario Blue Jays was just that. In fact, the amount of "elite" expensive teams have grown considerably over the last ten years because it's become a profit oriented business. Often, these teams are run by former Junior College baseball players who have very limited coaching and organizing abilities. In addition, as we all know, people are not playing baseball more so than before, thus the quality of baseball in these leagues is much lower than before. So there's some serious flaws with grassroots baseball in Ontario. Some kids are being shut out because it's too expensive or they can't make the drives to distant ball fields, while others who really shouldn't be playing at that level are playing and being filled with false dreams of US scholarships.
Thomas - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 10:21 PM EST (#226202) #
Sam, thanks for your informative posts. For those of us who never played baseball at a high level, they provide much-needed insight on the often invisible time before a player makes it to the top of draft lists and begins his major league career.
greenfrog - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 11:25 PM EST (#226204) #
Were the Bard a baseball fan, he might also add:

"Ripeness is all." (King Lear)

"But like a comet I was wonder'd at;
That men would tell their children 'This is he;'" (Henry IV)

Will (S, not Rain) might have been thinking of Stephen Strasburg (or Bryce Harper) with that second one.

As for the AFL, I seem to recall Keith Law saying that Arizona stats are meaningless. Has there been any research on these stats as predictors of future success or failure?
John Northey - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 11:43 PM EST (#226205) #
Given the massive range of ability, from A ballers to ML'ers, I can't imagine raw stats would tell much of anything. I think what ML teams watch for is how players do vs players at a similar level. IE: if Rzep gets hit around by guys in AAA/ML rehab then you worry, if A ballers are doing it you write it off to him experimenting. Generally though you give the guy a specific goal - be it to throw a certain pitch, learn pitch recognition, to be aggressive, or just to work on their fielding. That is what teams (I suspect) would be watching for. For example, a guy is told to work on his patients and he hits 600/600/1200 then he failed as he wouldn't have walked at all.
katman - Wednesday, November 24 2010 @ 11:56 PM EST (#226206) #

I, too, worry we'll lose Loewen, and that we'll come to regret it. For an organizatiuon that's pretty shallow on outfield prospects, that one really surprised me.

Hope he's still a Jay after the Rule 5.

TamRa - Thursday, November 25 2010 @ 12:15 AM EST (#226207) #
The way i see it, if the team really thinks Zep has quality starter stuff, they ought to maximize his value as a starter and allow Drabek to do 6-8 weeks in Vegas - cautioning him ahead of time as they have done with others in the past (most recently Cecil) that it was a depth issue and for him not to worry the team was upset with him or whatever.

Taking as much as two months gives you the chance to
a. see if Zep holds up under a full-time regular slot
b. build trade value among the top 5 if all stay healthy
c. have a stretched out option if there's an early injury

and as gravy, you save some service time on Drabek.

on the other hand...

if the team is unsure about Zep as a starter but think he can step up and be our next Scott downs, then give Drabek the #5 job and put Zep in the pen and run with that.


Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 25 2010 @ 01:47 AM EST (#226208) #

As for the AFL, I seem to recall Keith Law saying that Arizona stats are meaningless.   Sometimes Keith Law speaks before he thinks.   Not having a good AFL appearance sends a message you don't want your team to have.

The reasons you go to AFL are basically simple.   a) You need to pitch more innings or get more at bats.   b) You are sent there as a reward or because your team thinks you need a success.   c) Your team is highlighting you for a possible trade or needs reassurance for a decision they are making about your career.

Marc Rzepczynski need to pitch more innings.   He pitched as well as was expected, so he'll be the favorite for the 5th Starting position (or 4th if we acquire Upton).   Alan Farina pitched well enough to be a Bullpen consideration in Spring Training.   Matt Daly's future in the organization will be reconsidered.   Michael Mc Dade and Adam Loewen were successful.   Eric Thames was okay while Adeiny Hechavarria was not.   Watch where they start their seasons next year.   Interesting to note, John Tolisano should have had more at bats, he replaced Adeiny soon enough.

 

James W - Thursday, November 25 2010 @ 09:53 AM EST (#226215) #
I've noticed having an outstanding AFL to be indicative of future success:

In 2007, Nolan Reimold and Brett Gardner did very well, and they've had moderate to excellent major league success so far.

In 2008, Tommy Hanson was the best pitcher in the AFL, then has had two good seasons.

In 2009, Buster Posey, Starlin Castro, Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen all performed well, then all played pretty well in MLB in 2010.

If I were to place a wager on it, I'd expect Rzepczynski to have a fine season in 2011. Keep an eye on Dustin Ackley, and yes, Mike McDade too. This isn't scientific by any means, more of an educated guess.
Jonny German - Thursday, November 25 2010 @ 10:50 AM EST (#226219) #
I seem to recall Keith Law saying that Arizona stats are meaningless.

My Ontario stats say Keith Law is meaningless. He's fully made the transition from being a baseball analyst to being a media blowhard.
Mike Green - Thursday, November 25 2010 @ 11:11 AM EST (#226221) #
Yeah.  There are 3 issues with AFL statistics:
  1. it's the equivalent of double A roughly
  2. it's a pretty extreme hitter's environment, and
  3. the sample size is small.
That doesn't mean, of course, that the statistics are meaningless.  For instance, Zep was battered around in 67 innings in Las Vegas to start 2010 after his injury in the spring, struggled initially in Toronto but pitched pretty well in August and September.  The 31 very good innings he threw in the AFL do lend support to the view that whatever ailed him in the spring and early summer is in the past.  If one was trying to project his performance going forward, I personally would be inclined to the Las Vegas numbers and the AFL numbers as more or less cancelling each other out in significance.  If he hadn't pitched in the AFL, the Las Vegas numbers would, in my view, have some significance in his 2011 projection.

eldarion - Thursday, November 25 2010 @ 12:55 PM EST (#226231) #

Hello all,

I really have no idea where to post this information but I thought it interesting and relevant: in this morning's Ottawa Citizen, there is an interview with Rick Chiarelli, a municipal politician and former mayor, who states that he has been in negotiations with the Toronto Blue Jays 'since the spring' to bring a minor league affiliate to Ottawa. He seems quite optimistic that it will happen as well.

As Jays fan in the nation's capital, let me say that it would be awesome to watch the young guns come through Ottawa on their way to Toronto. 

Matthew E - Thursday, November 25 2010 @ 01:00 PM EST (#226232) #
I saw that! I like the idea too; I'm happy to support the Fat Cats but would rather there was a Jays affiliate in town.

That having been said, getting the Blue Jays organization on side with the plan is the easy part. A team can't just be conjured out of whole cloth; someone (presumably the Jays, although someone else could do it too) needs to find and acquire an available team and move it to Ottawa, and what teams are available? In what league? Does the geography make sense for that league? Chiarelli can say anything he wants but it's not as easy as he makes it sound.

eldarion - Thursday, November 25 2010 @ 01:02 PM EST (#226233) #

Hello all,

I really have no idea where to post this information but I thought it interesting and relevant: in this morning's Ottawa Citizen, there is an interview with Rick Chiarelli, a municipal politician and former mayor, who states that he has been in negotiations with the Toronto Blue Jays 'since the spring' to bring a minor league affiliate to Ottawa. He seems quite optimistic that it will happen as well.

As Jays fan in the nation's capital, let me say that it would be awesome to watch the young guns come through Ottawa on their way to Toronto. 

eldarion - Thursday, November 25 2010 @ 01:04 PM EST (#226234) #

Ooops, double post - sorry.

As I recall, wasn't the last Ottawa team of Triple-A calibre...? And hasn't Toronto soured on Las Vegas as a potential training ground for its more developed prospects...?

Seems like a natural fit. How long does Toronto have left in Vegas?

cybercavalier - Thursday, November 25 2010 @ 01:12 PM EST (#226235) #
The Triple A team of the Jays (Las Vegas 51s) is staying in Las Vegas for two more seasons. The Ottawa Lynx was of AAA calibre.

The news link I think eldarion is referring to:
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/sports/Chiarelli+optimistic+about+bringing+baseball+Ottawa/3880325/story.html

Matthew E - Thursday, November 25 2010 @ 01:19 PM EST (#226236) #
Technically, the last Ottawa team before the Fat Cats was the Rapidz, which played in some independent league or other. But before that, yeah, it was the Lynx, who were the Expos' AAA team and then the Orioles'.

No, we're with you; if Ottawa doesn't get a team, it's not because the Jays are in love with Las Vegas. The only reason the Jays are in Vegas in the first place is that a) nobody else wanted to go there, and b) no other AAA team was willing to be affiliated with (ew!) Toronto. The Jays and the 51s are stuck with each other, for now, anyway. And if the Jays could just pick them up and move them, I'm sure they would, but a) Ottawa's a bad fit for a league calling itself the Pacific Coast League, b) the Jays don't own the team themselves, and c) you can't move a team out of the PCL and into the International League just like that.

A single-A team might be a better fit; the Jays actually own at least some of those. I don't think any of them play in a league close enough, but I have the notion that single-A teams are bought and sold more easily.

John Northey - Thursday, November 25 2010 @ 01:26 PM EST (#226237) #
I could see a NYPenn league team moving to Ottawa easily enough. Short season teams work in Canada as you avoid April.

If the Jays can find a AAA team willing to move, or be bought out, then woohoo but I don't see that happening in the immediate future.
Anders - Thursday, November 25 2010 @ 01:29 PM EST (#226238) #

Shameless plug alert!

A friend of mine wrote a bit about Joey Votto and the Toronto baseball scene on his blog (to which I ocassionally contribute) a couple of weeks ago. It's a long piece and most of it is about the Miami heat but there is an interesting insight into Votto I think - I won't spoil it.

http://secondarylead.blogspot.com/2010/10/better-than-best-drinking-matt.html

cybercavalier - Thursday, November 25 2010 @ 01:38 PM EST (#226239) #
I agree mostly with Matthew and John. Personally, I would prefer
Plan 1) Upgrading the Vancouver Canadians into a AAA team or technically replacing the 51s with the AAA Vancouver Canadians in the PCL.
Plan 2) Relocating one of the lower minor league Jays to Ottawa. If plan 1) goes through, the Class A Vancouver Canadians relocates to Ottawa. (A single-A team is a better fit, in my opinion.) Having a near MLB calibre in the proximity of Toronto may be counterproductive for the Jays fans base and business, recalling the Nationals and the Orioles rivals when the Expos was about to relocate. I think as a Canadian baseball fan that baseball to flourish on Canadian soil, not siblings fighting in Canadian backyard for affiliations.

I know all the above is my wishful thinking, for now I wish.

John Northey - Thursday, November 25 2010 @ 02:55 PM EST (#226242) #
Or the Jays go nuts and put a AA team in Ottawa, AAA in Montreal, short season A on the east coast (Halifax or something), and a rookie ball team in Medicine Hat again. Spread the Jay influence all over :)
ayjackson - Thursday, November 25 2010 @ 04:40 PM EST (#226249) #

Travis Snider has chimed in on twitter with his Thanksgiving eve party food power rankings;

  1. bacon rapped little smokes
  2. meatballs (bbq)
  3. quiche (sleeper)
  4. pita chips w/ artichoke cheese dip
  5. salami sandwiches
  6. shrimp cocktail

Sell high!

Mike Green - Thursday, November 25 2010 @ 04:45 PM EST (#226250) #
Dear Travis,

Happy Thanksgiving.

Mike

Mike Forbes - Thursday, November 25 2010 @ 06:01 PM EST (#226256) #
Travis Snider is gonna show up to camp looking like Mo Vaughn. Book it.
Chuck - Thursday, November 25 2010 @ 07:12 PM EST (#226262) #
Dear Travis,

Happy Thanksgiving.

Mike


I'm good, man. Thanks.

Travis
Mike Green - Thursday, November 25 2010 @ 07:40 PM EST (#226263) #
Well, it's Anne Lindsay or Tabata, Travis.  And I'm not talking Jose Tabata....Personally, I'd go for the Lindsay.

Mike


Original Ryan - Thursday, November 25 2010 @ 10:13 PM EST (#226265) #
As far as an affiliate in Ottawa goes, my guess is that a group would buy a team in the Eastern League (AA), relocate it to Ottawa, and the Jays would drop New Hampshire when that PDC is up after 2012.  The only other possibility I could see is an International League (AAA) team, but there aren't any obvious candidates for relocation right now.

Single A is very unlikely:
  • Ottawa doesn't work geographically for the Midwest League.
  • I forget the specifics, but the New York-Penn League has some restrictions on how far franchises can be from each other.  From what I've read, the Vermont franchise might be relocated in the near future, and that would leave Ottawa all by itself.  There's also the fact that Toronto just signed up with Vancouver for four years, and the Northwest League is at the same level as the New York-Penn League.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 25 2010 @ 11:57 PM EST (#226266) #
For those people interested in the Rule 5 draft, I highly recommend: http://1bluejaysway.blogspot.com/2010/11/rule-5-draft.html.   Someone went through a lot of work for this.
Greg - Friday, November 26 2010 @ 09:31 AM EST (#226276) #
Fu-Te Ni seems like an interesting fellow.  He was pretty good in 2009, though his 2010 and his walks are a bit scary.
Joe Savery might be another option, he was a 1st rounder just a few years ago, though that k-rate is awfully low.
Marc Hulet - Friday, November 26 2010 @ 10:54 AM EST (#226283) #
Unfortunately, that Rule 5 list that was compiled includes a number of errors, including a number of prospects added to their teams' 40-man rosters.
bpoz - Friday, November 26 2010 @ 11:08 AM EST (#226284) #
Just curious... How hard would it be to trade for a S Shoffit type of player, a position player that was not progressing but always had a great arm, good athlete and could play good defense. The arm being the crucial thing as he tries pitching.

Also a guy like Bryson Namba 2009 draft pick, DOB 1/31/91, so far not a shining light at 3rd base but he pitched in HS I believe his coach said and as a closer. Hard throwers can come from anywhere and may be cheap in trades and he has played pro only 2 years.

Of course there are examples in between 2-6 years. AND there are success stories, seems low risk to me.

I am not suggesting Rule 5. But if someone takes anyone from us and wants the option of sending him down, I would use the army of scout's data to target such projects and other long shot prospects, and I may try to get 2-3 for 1.
Thomas - Friday, November 26 2010 @ 02:31 PM EST (#226286) #
While browsing the internet, I came across some video of Brad Emaus, potential Rule V draftee, taking some at-bats in the AFL last year. If curious, you can see the video here.

The site also has videos from AFL 2009 of David Cooper taking some at-bats and AJ Jimenez with a nice block at home plate of Mitch Moreland. You can see the latter video by clicking here.

Mike Green - Friday, November 26 2010 @ 02:43 PM EST (#226287) #
That is really good quality video, Thomas.  You do get a feel for how athletic Jimenez is, with the leap and getting the foot down and the tag all in one pretty tight package.
Thomas - Friday, November 26 2010 @ 03:25 PM EST (#226289) #
I agree, Mike, it's a very good look at Jimenez's defensive abilities. In addition to what you mentioned, it's nice that he springs back into throwing position once he's shown the ball to the umpire, making sure the batter doesn't take an extra base.

I also like how he applies the tag low on Moreland's leg, making it clear to the umpire that Moreland couldn't have touched the base before being tagged. Tag application is something I feel too many players are a bit sloppy with. There's a feeling that if the ball beats the runner to the base he's out - and umpires often call it that way - but there were more than a few times last year where replays or slow-motion showed the runner had hit foot or hand on the bag, before the fielder applied a tag to his upper thigh.
VBF - Friday, November 26 2010 @ 04:57 PM EST (#226291) #

While his effort is commendable, the Ottawa councillor must not have a map and/or an idea of how minor league baseball works.

His 'potential owners' if there actually are some would be investing in a AA or AAA team in the Eastern or International League (there isn't a nearby A-ball club. NY-Penn not only is too far, but I believe you can only have one short season-A team, Vancouver is spoken for). A AAA team could cost $20 million per year. What potential owner is going to sink 20 million dollars into something that failed miserably three seasons ago?

As for the weather, that's not an issue, you just go road heavy in April and May. The only way I see this happening is if the Blue Jays themselves purchased a AAA team, moved them to Ottawa, established themselves as a legitimate money maker and sold the team to local ownership after a couple successful seasons.

But if they were going to do that, they should've just purchased the Beavers in the PCL last season, moved them to Edmonton and switched affiliations after this year.

 

92-93 - Friday, November 26 2010 @ 09:30 PM EST (#226298) #
Looks like Jimenez is behind the plate for the David Cooper AB as well, and he guns a Cubs prospect down at 3rd. After watching Jimenez's AB he's either gained a lot of weight or isn't 5"11 200 as his current player page suggests.
cybercavalier - Friday, November 26 2010 @ 09:31 PM EST (#226299) #
But if they were going to do that, they should've just purchased the Beavers in the PCL last season, moved them to Edmonton and switched affiliations after this year.

An illuminating comment.

If the Jays had purchased the Beavers, the way the city of Edmonton and the PCL would have accommodated a relocated AAA team is another issue. But the 51s would have most likely affiliated with the Padres; at least, travel between AAA and the mother MLB teams for both the Jays and Padres is shortened, which is a good thing IMO. 
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