Pena's BA the last 4 years - .282, .247, .227, .196  Quite a trend there.  Reminds me of one of those IQ tests, like can you determine the next number in this series...

Interestingly, despite playing in a pitchers' park, he has hit much better at home than on the road.  His career BA in Rogers Centre is under .200, although he does have 11 HR's in about 150 AB's.  Wilner says he doubts the Jays are seriously interested.  Thank goodness.

I'm a bit confused - I was just listening to Bob Elliot on the fan590 and he seemed to indicate that the

Jays were telling other clubs that they are a Greinke type acquisition away from contending ( was in the car and

only caught latter part on conversation) did anyone else listen to the conversation?

To:  Mylegacy

Dear Friend

At 3:40PM, today, you were drunk as a skunk.  Lit, stinko, wasted. 

You know, screwing up on the word "deference," inferring that your best friends are rectums, and wanting Lyle back.  Incidentally, I don't want Pena, either. 

Why? = Pourquoi?  

I can inquire as to the location of the men's room in seven different languages.  Need-to-know linguistic skills for any drinker.  

It must be a fake right and go left move. I dunno.

I wouldn't use the word must, as there is a good chance it might just be untrue...

Hi, Dean

What about Davis from Oakland?  Is he chopped liver?

The other reason the rumors make sense is that the Royals may be interested in Lawrie and Drabek as the key parts.

Making the deal essentially Marcum + Drabek for Greinke.  Does that make any sense?

What about Davis from Oakland?  Is he chopped liver?

He's the wurst.

BumWino,

Going back to an earlier post you wrote about MyLegacy's drinking, I want you to know that you're not an alcoholic if you're a connoisseur, and you're not a drunk if you can afford it.

As for Pena, I don't want to see him in a Jays' uniform.  He's poor defensively, he's declining fast and will be 33 years old through most of the season and the last thing the Jays need is a another guy who will hit some homeruns but have a low average and OBP, and strikeout 33% of the time.  If you're going to get a short-term fix move Lind to 1B and sign Manny to DH for a season with a 2012 team option or vesting option.

Article is also notable for sanctimonious rant wherein journalist chastises Greinke for talking to journalists. USA, USA...

I'm honestly confused why anyone would consider trading your top 2 prospects (plus more apparently) for Greinke instead of signing Cliff Lee.

That's easy. The difference is most (all?) GMs have to ask their owners for permission to sign Cliff Lee.  Only the really unlucky ones have to ask their GMs if they can trade two prospects.

I read the Lee rumour too and the wording of that report seemed to imply he'd sign with Texas for six years. That 7th may be a holdup, because Lee may prefer Texas to New York, all else being equal, so if Texas matches New York's offer on term and dollar value, he'll sign with the Rangers. So, he's telling New York that a 7th year would get it done, as he knows there is no way the Rangers will match that. Meanwhile, he's telling Texas a 6th year will get it done, because he'll take Texas' offer, all else equal, and this would force New York to go to 7. So, for him, the 7th year is the holdup, because that would guarantee he signs with the Yankees, rather wait to see if Texas matches the 6 years.

Of course, there's no way to know how Lee really feels until it's all over with, and even then we'll be relying on rumours of what was offered to evaluate the alternatives.

If Lee would sign with Texas tonight for 6 years, I'd probably offer if it was Daniels. It would be risky and potentially hurt at the back end, but almost all marquee free agent contracts come with risk and diminished returns at the end of the deal. That decision is also based on the premise that Texas' payroll will increase shortly due to their new cable deal. If the payroll is to remain constant or only increase at the rate of industry inflation, I'd be more hesitant.

Tim Pinder, thank you so much for your sage remark regarding both Mylegacy's and my own proclivity for drink.  I feel much better now. 

Indeed, I consider myself a connoisseur of virtually any gros rouge which features the necessary economy of purchase that, by definition, I am able to afford.  Nevertheless, your kind words and understanding are sure to add a modicum of spring to my step as I indolently shuffle through these unhurried days of my golden years.

Thanks again, Tim.  God bless.   

Chuck, yours is the best witticism I've seen in many a moon on a baseball blog.  You win the prize!

I shall forthwith petition the powers-that-be on this blog to o-pun the grab bag of prizes and let you take your choice.  And what an assortment!  Everything from stuffed animals to a plaster of Paris Jesus to kewpie dolls to ashtrays to string, sealing wax and other magic stuff to timeless novelties such as plastic dog excrement and plastic drunk vomit to a book of assorted money-saving coupons to a used Lada to my all-time favorite, a whoopee cushion.

I used to take a whoopee cushion concealed under my suit top into boardroom meetings.  In the middle of the first presentation, I would abruptly stand, excuse myself, and walk very quickly to the door.  As I opened the door, I would depress the whoopee cushion in such a way that a remarkably wet sound of flatus was produced, then I would hang my head in mock-shame for a brief moment, and then hurry out the door, closing it behind me.

I'd head up to our tiny lunch room for a 10-minute smoke and coffee before returning to the boardroom.  Watching the staff try to stifle their laughter always amused me.  Eventually one of them would ask, "Are you feeling better now, sir?"  To which I would laconically reply, "Yeah, I clean up real good."          

Let's talk about whether or not Zach Greinke is a Stud Ace, or just another good pitcher on a bad team.   (Because if you think he is neither, then I apologise, I will not respect your opinion in this matter.)   This http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=greinza01&t=p&year=2010 deals with game logs.    

1) 8 GS: at least 6.0+ IP, less than 2 ER given up, 3-2 with 3 N.D.   Team finished: 3-5.

2) 6 GS: at least 6.0+ IP, exactly 2 ER given up, 2-1 with 3 N.D.   Team finished: 4-2.

3) 7 GS: at least 6.0+ IP, exactly 3 ER given up, 4-1 with 2 N.D.   Team finished: 4-3.

4) 5 GS: with less than 6.0 IP, 0-5.   Team finished 0-5.

5) 7 GS: at least 6.0+ IP, more than 3 ER given up, 1-5 with 1 N.D.   Team finished 1-6.   Indications are K.C. was a bad offensive team with a bad bullpen.

Rare is the talent that can pitch at the top of a Rotation and be dominant.   Rare is the team with a talent that good anywhere else.   But usually with one, you can get the other.   Pitching is everything, if you don't believe that, explain how San Francisco won.   Zach Greinke will thrive here.   He's under contract for two years (ages 27, 28), making $13.5 MM each year.  A three-year extention (ages 29 - Shaun Marcum's age, 30, 31), with (1-3) option(s) should be possible.

Kyle Drabek will not be our Ace this coming (2011) season (age 23).   Kyle Drabek will not be our Ace in 2012 (age 24).   Kyle Drabek might be our Ace in 2013 (age 25).   Kyle Drabek could be an Ace by 2014 (age 26).   (Kyle is1 day away from being 23, and has spent 5 seasons in Baseball.)   And in his brief MLB debut, he did not impress.

Travis Snider has dominated the Minors for all that he's been rushed to the Majors.   He will be 23 prior to the start of Spring Training, and has already spent 5 seasons in this organization.   (Brett Cecil has just spent his 4th season with us.)   Travis has struggled to be consistent, that could come.   Travis has struggled to balance his walk and strikeout rates, that could come.   At his best, he will be a very slightly above average defender. 

I would trade Kyle Drabek and Travis Snider to the K.C. Royals for Zach Greinke in a heartbeat.  Failure for Alex Anthopoulos to do so, removes him from my A-List of Gms.   To Alex I give:  Montrose's Toast: "He either fears his fate too much, or his desserts are small, who dares not to put it in to the touch, to win or lose it all."  James Graham: 5th Earl of Montrose.  1612-1650.  Royalist General during the English Civil War.

Perusing the Baseball America transactions log, I see that old friend Brian Dopirak has signed on with the Houston Astros.

Houston could end up with the Las Vegas 51s platoon at first base last year between Brett Wallace and Dopirak if he were to get the call.

"The good thing," said a scout for another club also looking for a closer, "is that there are more guys wanting to close then there are openings."

The Jays are currently "pricing" free-agent closers: Rafael Soriano, Jon Rauch, Bobby Jenks, Mike Fuentes and Octavio Dotel, according to scouts.

J.J. Putz is said to have signed for 2 years and $10M with Arizona, pending a physical. This sounds rather inexpensive to me.

It's a funny offseason. Eric Hinske settled for 1 year and $1.35M with Atlanta while Ty Wigginton gets 2 years and $8M from Colorado.

AA was just interviewed on the FAN and gave the impression that the Jays interest in Grienke was being overblown.  Paraphrasing, he said that anytime anyone is available that he thinks would help the team, he will at least make the call to find out the asking price.

As for the current starters, he said that he could see Litsch, Rep, or Stewart moving into the 4/5 spots in the rotation.  Drabek's name was also mentioned.

Can anyone explain the simplest way of finding out what Snider's peripherals were like during the different segments of the season?

Call up Travis Snider at BB-ref. Go to the game logs. Click a "start game" and then click an "end game". It will calculate the cumulative numbers for that period.

Sorry I know this has been asked before but I am still unsure of the answer.  How does the order for the supplementary round work?  Is it based on final standing of the team that signs "your" player, on the team losing the player, the Elias ranking (I was told not once already), or something else all together?  More to the point, does the pick that the Jays would receive for a "B" player like Gregg change based on who signs him? 

With respect to the 1st round I am hoping Boston signs Downs.  It was reported today that they intend to try and do so.  Assuming Boston doesn't sign Crawford, Lee, Konerko, or Soriano (don't see Soriano nor Lee on their radar) then I would gladly take the 24th overall pick if I were AA.

Dear bmac

When I read your assessment of my wretched existence, I exclaimed aloud, "I THINK HE'S GOT IT!  BY JOVE, HE'S GOT IT!"

Thank heavens at least a few of you good people are able to relate so closely with a person who is old.

Some dude ax me 'bout bmac, like we go, "He da man!"

Thanks again, bmac. 

Not intending to be sarcastic, but I wonder if the Brewers added a C+ type prospect, would most of the doubters be happy? 

I think the big problem for most of the critics of the deal is it seems too risky to give up a proven commodity for 1 prospect, rather than hedge the bets over 2.   And maybe they're right, maybe AA should have got a 2nd for fair value for Marcum.  Then again, maybe that was the dealbreaker and he really wanted Lawrie.

Hopefully his assessment of Lawrie was correct, and not an infatuation.

RE: Chuck's BB-ref  ...  WOW !  ...    I didn't know you could do that.  Sure is faster than me using pen,  paper and my fingers .   THANKS Chuck !  ...AND the Stats go back to 1957 !    whoa !

 After his horrible start in April where Snider hit .125 BAve, .250 slg, and 2 HR's in his first 19 games he followed it up by hitting .291 BA, .521 slg with 12 HR's in his next 63 games ( projecting 31 HR's over 164 games ) 

I wouldn't trade Snider straight-up for Upton and does one really want your-go-to pitching Ace to have had problems with handling pressure .

Back in the USSR in the 1930's, the very paranoid Boss, Uncle Joe Stalin, initiated essentially political purges of various groups--religious, ethnic, military, intellectual, etc,. etc.--at about the same frequency as he changed his underwear. 

Some historians have estimated that as many as 20 million people were either executed with or without a brief "show" trial or shipped off to the rapidly expanding gulag to be worked/starved to death. 

Stalin once remarked, "A single death is a tragedy; a million deaths, a statistic."  

Strangely, a significant percentage of Soviet citizens didn't blame Stalin for the terror.  They were sure The Boss didn't know about it, or he would have put an end to it.

I'm mentioning this, because it seems to me that Toronto has just commenced its fourth payroll purge (in less than 18 months) yesterday by divesting itself of Shaun Marcum.  I suspect Jose Bautista will be next.  And the team may not pick up any of Hill's options before the Opening Day deadline. 

Purge #1 - Rolen and Rios. (executed by J.P.)

Purge #2 - Halladay, Barajas and Scutaro.

Mini-purge - Gonzalez for Escobar ( A-Gon earning $2 million+ more than Yunel)

Purge #3 - Gregg, Downs, Buck, Encarnacion (and others like Overbay and Tallet who really did need mercy-termination).  

Purge #4 - Marcum and....

Each individual move can be easily justified by the quick-thinking, lightening-speaking Alex Anthopoulos, but nevertheless there does seem to be a pattern developing here.

How many years down the road before the Blue Jays contend?   My guess:  Not until the team has new owners.

Incidentally, in my analogy:  Nadir = Chairman Joe Stalin; Paul =  People's Commissar; Alex = Execution Squad Captain.   

Not resigning after one year deals with Barajas, Gregg, Buck is a "purge"? Releasing Encarnacion is a "purge"? Trading one year of Gonzalez for a better, younger player is a "purge"?

Purging never sounded so delicious.

And maybe they're right, maybe AA should have got a 2nd for fair value for Marcum.  Then again, maybe that was the dealbreaker and he really wanted Lawrie

I get the impression from AA's interviews that he doesn't really care to obtain lesser ranked prospects.  He is looking for high ceiling guys or nothing.

Hi Chocolate

Your reply has more validity than the others.  But take a step back and look at what you have just written. 

"Young, controllable talent that will rise at the same time."   Why?  So the players all hit their arbitration year and FA year at the same time?  Jays lose 'em all and have to start all over again at rock-bottom? 

The entire point of my post is that building from within, the odd trade and very rare FA signing is the way to rise to contention.  To contend year-after-year, the team has to be prepared to retain solid verteran players until talented rookies or other rising younger players push them aside.

Rogers' policies won't allow that natural evolution of team talent.  Won't spend the money to retain, for example, John Buck until young Arencibia demonstrates conclusive competency in handling the very young starting pitchers.  

Result?  Rogers maximizes its profits on the baseball team, while the fans are in fact being scammed.  And Anthopoulos said Rogers was the wealthiest owner in MLB. 

The bullpen stinks at the moment.  Why not retain Downs and Gregg, then add Crain and whoever, and let Carlson and Roenike go?  Because that costs more money and that is not the Rogers' way.

I never attended a single game last year.  I kept wondering how the team would have done with Halladay in the rotation instead of so-called fifth starters(10-22)  Eveland, Tallet, an injured Litsch, Mills, Drabek, a recovering Zep, etc., etc.

Further, I don't give a good goddam who calls me a "fair-weather" fan.  If Rogers doesn't want to invest at least league-average payroll in the team, they certainly aren't going to see a dime from me.    

The entire point of my post is that building from within, the odd trade and very rare FA signing is the way to rise to contention.  To contend year-after-year, the team has to be prepared to retain solid verteran players until talented rookies or other rising younger players push them aside.

I agree with you statement, I don't agree that it applies to the 2011 Blue Jays.  They're not a contending team yet, so there's little point in throwing money away by paying high free agent salaries to "solid veterans".  If we were talking about a team on the verge of playoff contention, that's a different story.

To:  Mylegacy 

Hi, Friend

A very comprehensive explanation of  AA's master plan to improve the team over time.  I am aware of it, and I agree with your assessment.

Jays have more than ample starting pitching, so I don't object to the Marcum trade in principle, only that it represents more of the same; an ongoing obsessive cutting of payroll.

The Marcum trade is far less risky--in terms of the team's chances for success in 2011--than letting John Buck walk and leaving the young starting staff at the mercy of a rookie catcher. 

Some people view letting Buck go as a good thing because he allows too many passed balls.  These are the same people who consider Lind's fielding deficiencies at first base to be of critical importance. 

In spite of Encarnacion, Buck, Fred Lewis and the other spazz fielders the team trotted out last year, Jays were still the third best fielding team in the AL. 

Taking the long view, my main concern is the team's future in Toronto.  Jays now play to 39% stadium capacity, the lowest in MLB.  Jays are the worst road draw in MLB.  The American owners would all love to see the team moved south.

The 2011 edition needs at least a few more quality relievers and Manny at DH.  Then, win or lose, at least the fans get their money's worth.

Instead, Jays next move will likely be to trade Bautista for a couple of sure-thing, can't-miss prospects.     

Going here http://www.fan590.com/onair/primetimesports/  will allow you to listen to Keith Law and then Alex Anthopoulos talk Blue Jay stuff.

1) Brett Lawrie will play 3B or he will play RF or he will play 2B.   But one thing is clear, he starts on the big club in 2012.   His bat is too good not to.

2) Alex Anthopoulos is not done with Zach Greinke.   He just needs to do the deal or expand it.   Until someone else gets Greinke, Alex will still be in on him.  

3) Jesse Litsch, as per John Farrell and as per Alex Anthopoulos is one of our starters, with Marc Rzepczynski or Zach Stewart or ? will be our other challengers.  

3) Cubs sign Pena.  

Taking the long view, my main concern is the team's future in Toronto.  Jays now play to 39% stadium capacity, the lowest in MLB.  Jays are the worst road draw in MLB.  The American owners would all love to see the team moved south.

That worried me at one time too until I realized that since Rogers owns the "Rogers" Centre then they would be cutting off their nose to spite their face by selling their, by far, #1 tenant.  If the owners of the 2 entities were different I am sure we would be well into the Expos on Exile St. process.  

I like that AA is trying to expand the Greinke deal if that report is true, I still think that Alex Gordon is more than the sum of his numbers so far and if he was included I might be won over. I trust AA but not to the point that I would approve of Snider and Drabek for Greinke, who IMO is not a sure thing in the Halladay category. (Not that I have recived any documents from AA for my signature)

Pena is gone and I would like to see AA take a run at Laroche. What about Derrek Lee? I am not hearing his name. Is he still out there and worth a flyer? Then there is Paul Konerko if we really want to dream.  

. 

What about Derrek Lee? I am not hearing his name. Is he still out there and worth a flyer?

Ok, I will answer my own question. As per Elliott http://www.torontosun.com/sports/baseball/2010/12/07/16467271.html  there is interest in Lee by the Jays. Also, they have talked to agents for Jesse Crain and Kerry Wood, By his own admission AA may just be juggling too many balls at the same time. 

Jays were still the third best fielding team in the AL. 

Their Runs Allowed has them ranked 9th. Their Defensive Efficiency has them ranked 11th.

What is the ranking of third based on?

I never attended a single game last year.  I kept wondering how the team would have done with Halladay in the rotation instead of so-called fifth starters(10-22)  Eveland, Tallet, an injured Litsch, Mills, Drabek, a recovering Zep, etc., etc.

instead, Jays next move will likely be to trade Bautista for a couple of sure-thing, can't-miss prospects.

I sure hope so - How about Bautista plus to the reds for Yonder Alonso and Volez/Bailey?

But if AA follows his plan, making Bautista available should be expected - last offseason I was hoping

the team would be more aggressive in making lind/hill/Frasor available

a couple of sure-thing, can't-miss prospects.

Sorry if someone has pointed this out already -- I didn't see it -- but repeat sloooowly after me ....
There ... ain't ... no ...such ... thing!

Johnny Walker is not single malt.  I prefer Lagavulin but it's been priced out of my league over the years.  If I'm fortunate to be gifted a bottle I feel that I'm not worthy enough to drink it.

Allright, I'll ask.. What's your favorite movie of said genre? :-)

I'm guessing it was the one he shot on his balcony, where poor Santa got defiled. The weather conditions were presumably such that Santa's cries of Rudolph, the prearranged safe word, went unheard. Roger's telling of the story may lead to the one and only Google hit combining the words Santa and anus.

I don't know if you remember, but the Expos were averaging less than 10k a game for a while, the worst in the majors. We have a long way to go before that happens. There is some buzz associated with this team I think, and acquiring one decent name will help bolster attendance.

I know its public and easy to count and all but why attendance has always been the go-to stat for determining whether a team is sustainable or not is beyond me. The worst thing that could happen to the Blue Jays isn't averaging 9,000 people a game. It would be for Canada's largest businesses to move their headquarters from Toronto to Calgary and for Sportsnet/TSN to stop covering their games, which is what inevitably put the Expos on life support and made them completely dependant on ticket revenue.

The fact that the Jays survived Canada's recession while losing several major long-time partners and were able to bring on some great new companies is a huge win for their financial health.

Brilliant Chuck, cuttlefish worthy even.

Mike Wilner has an excellent blog post up, it's worth a read. Here are some experts:

First of all - the Blue Jays want Adam Lind to be their starting first baseman next season.

Further to the Lind discussion, Anthopoulos also told us - without mentioning any names or speaking specifically about any players out there - that the Blue Jays aren’t interested in having Manny Ramirez as their designated hitter in 2011.

Anthopoulos also didn’t deny interest in free agent catcher Russell Martin. 

There were updates on Scott Richmond (he’ll compete for a job in Spring Training, stretched out as a starter but aware that there may be a spot for him in the bullpen), Jesse Litsch (Alex absolutely believes Litsch will be healthy and ready to go at the beginning of Spring Training) and Dustin McGowan (playing catch right now, pain-free - no one is getting their hopes up, but so far, so good), and an explanation that Shawn Hill was let go because he had a “flare-up” in his final regular season start, and as much as the Jays like him and his stuff, they just don’t believe that he’ll be able to stay healthy enough to stay on the mound on a regular basis.

The Jays have three open spots on the 40-man roster to use, and Anthopoulos said that he has an eye on three players, at least one of whom he doesn’t expect to be available when they pick. 

Loewen, as Anthopoulos explained, mostly because he’s out of options and if the Jays had put him on the 40-man roster (to protect him from Rule 5) he’d have had to have made the team out of Spring Training or face going through waivers, so it’s either risk losing him now or risk losing him then.  The risk of losing Loewen is much lower now, because even if he gets taken, he’d have to make whichever team selects him out of Spring Training or the Jays get him back.

To: Mylegacy 

Re: Inflatable Santa Passing

Please accept my heartfelt sympathy in this, your hour of greatest need.  Today, you and yours will occupy a very special place in my thoughts and prayers.

Oh my dear God, I can't stand it.  I am being wracked by uncontrollable sobbing and I am involuntarily tearing up.  I hate myself when I utterly lose control and break down like this. 

And what a horrible, horrible way to go.  Being terminally goosed by a fan.  The mere thought of it has me walking around my humble abode with my buttocks pressed tightly together like a chartered accountant's.

"When I go, I'd rather be dropped from a helicopter from 1,000 feet, or chopped up in one of those gigantic snowblowers that clear mountain roads, or have my nuts chewed off by a Laplander." 

--quote from "Naked Gun"

eudaimon.  According for Forbes magazine, Jays 2009 attendance accounted for just under 23% of total revenue ($37 million of $163 million total).  Attendance has declined almost every year since Rogers took over full ownership of the team.

Average general admission is $23.84 and average fan visit yields $39 revenue per.

The team has an accumulated profit (2004 - 2009) of over $60 million.  But this is barely scratching the surface compared to the programming, recognition and promotional benefits Rogers derives from owning the team.  None of those figures, of course, include the gain on equity investment.

Rogers Communications had a gross profit in 2009 of $4.09 billion.   Wealthiest owner in MLB according to Anthopoulos.   However, the team is run like it's a small-market team.  

I think there is a pretty solid correlation between attendance and sustainability.

When we're talking about conventional teams that don't draw hundreds of thousands of viewers on television, aren't a marketing expense for their ownership and aren't  located in one of the top 5 economic hubs in North America. Ticket sales are by far not the be all and end all.

The Texas Rangers signed a 20 year 3 billion dollar television deal, which works out to 150 million per season (for simplicity's sake I'll ignore time value of money). At an average ticket price of $30, they'd have to draw 5 million fans per season (which they physically couldn't do) just to match that number. A severe attendance decline wouldn't necessarily indicate financial instability.

Is poor attendance sometimes a sign of a team in trouble? Yes, but not when team is so strong with its television and the corporate community like the Blue Jays.

Ahhh I hate the Red sox, and Yankees...you just know that the Yankees will respond like a world power and do something to arm themselves...yikes....anyway on to Jays stuff and after reading AA's interview it sounds like Martin will be an option, and IMHO could see maybe Nick Johnson being of interest as he could be both a dh/ first baseman.....I actually feel strange suggesting this minor move after the red sox blst but whatever....also it seem that the jays needs is a 3/4 outfielder...a starter, some bullpen help, and a closer

...if the Yanks didn't get Lee and Andy didn't come back...      We might just get ourselves into the Wild Card hunt in 2011. 

Now you know why I continually 'harp' on trading for Zach Greinke (whom N.Y.Y. will be after, like a bear after honey, as soon as they lose Lee).   I think we can survive in the post-season with Greinke, but not without, we're not quite good enough.   I am willing to trade Drabek and Snider to do so, whether or not the deal expands.   I think the minors are strong enough to make this deal.

1) We need an ACE; we've got the other four.   2) We need a TOP CLOSER, until we find our own.   3) We need a Free Agent RELIEVER, or via trade; we can find another 4 or 5 arms for the Bullpen.  4a) We need a CF HEIR.   4b) I can settle with Davis, Wells and Bautista as our outfield, if we get a 4TH OUTFIELDER as good as or better than Davis.   5) I like Lind, Hill and Escobar as our Infield, needing a THIRD BASEMAN better than the previous occupant.  6)  We need a D.H., preferably able to play 1B.   7) We need a CATCHER better than Jose Molina.

I think in trading for Brett Lawrie, we will have a Stud who will be in the lineup in 2012 as 2B, 3B or RF.   Alex Anthopoulos needs to leave the Winter Meetings with a WOW deal, something J.P. never could, to excite the fans.   We need to fill 1 or 2 of the 7) with a STUD this off-season, with the other 5 -6 of the 7) being filled as best as we can.  Besides Lawrie, and / or others, we need to fill another 1 or 2 of the 7) each following off -season.  

Alex has shown his talent in acquiring talent for the future in Trades, Drafting, International and Free Agent signings.   Now he must show his talent in taking advantage of windows of opportunities that briefly appear - like now. 

Alex Anthopoulos needs to leave the Winter Meetings with a WOW deal, something J.P. never could, to excite the fans.

Really?  Like this line of thinking doesn't make any sense to me at all.  Do we really care so much about making a BIG DEAL, or do we care about making a smart deal, even if it's not that big?  Is a splashy, flashy deal in December really going to sell more tickets in April?  And why do we care if it does?  I don't care if the fans are excited in December, I just want to win baseball games, that is what will really get people excited.

I always thought  a heading to your reply treated like this: ...if the Yanks didn't get Lee and Andy didn't come back...      We might just get ourselves into the Wild Card hunt in 2011. meant your whole reply / argument / rebuttal dealt with that.   I definitely tried to explain what I thought, I'm sorry people disagree.   I just think this team can be much better (with a trade or two for a Top 5 / High-Upside player(s) at a needed position(s), and / or a Free Agent or two signing of a Top 5 / High-Upside player(s) at a needed position(s)) than other people think.

Alex Anthopoulos spent a considerable amount of time trying to acquire Justin Upton, and failing to do so.   Excuse: they want too much.   Alex then spends significant time on an acquisition of Zack Greinke, and failing to do so (as yet).   Excuse: they want too much.   Then Alex says (to paraphrase): he's in on so many deals / trades that he's dealing with too much.   Then the Shaun Marcum trade, and still needing a P.T.B.N.L. for Carlos Villanueva.   An on-the-ball A.A. would have gotten Villanueva rolled into the Marcum trade, or he would have gotten a decent second player.

Boston should make the post-season.   Baltimore should not be better than us.   Tampa Bay should not be better than us.   If New York does not get Lee, Pettitte or Greinke (but we get Greinke), we just might beat them.   This is the window of opportunity I speak of.   I think a Trade for a piece, without "stripping the minors", and a free agent piece, without crippling the Team financially is possible.   Doing this each off-season should be feasible, while smaller trades, drafting, international signings (or normal Alex stuff) keep the minors getting stronger.   If no one agrees, fine, now you know what I believe.

sam

well said - completely agree - I'm amazed that the same fans who give JP the longest rope, are now impatient

after just 1 yr. of AA - I like the Marcum trade, hope they are shopping Bautista - somebody is going to overpay

for Greinke, hope it isn't the Jays - AA has given every indication that 2011 is another building year and I'm okay with

that.

This assertion is based on what evidence, exactly?

What kind of crazy talk is this? This is the internet. Evidence is optional.

So here are the actual 3 year average (2008-2010) stats for 2 very good fielding LF, prorated to 600 AB:

Player A:  46 SB, 18 CS, .293 AVG and .346 OBP

Player B:  48 SB, 12 CS, .297 AVG and .349 OBP

Player B is the better player, his name is Carl Crawford and his salary is over $20M.

Player B is the "optimal" platoon of Rajai Davis and FA Scott Podsednik.  Combined salary would be less than $5M

Do you see $15M worth of difference?  I don’t.

Yes Carl has more power but I’m not sure we need that.  His SLG was .454 whereas our platoon was .406.  Buying a $15M slugger should take care of that if you like.  Defense would be close, too.

Regarding Crawford's somewhat pedestrian career OPS+

OPS+ doesn't take baserunning into account, right?  I'm not saying the contract is a good deal for the Sox, but it's a much better deal than if Crawford ran the bases like Lyle Overbay.

Chuck, when your idea gets serious consideration from MLB I'll get behind it. It is a better idea, no doubt, but it isn't the one floating around out there for whatever reason. Until then, this is the only proposal I've seen that evens the playing field for the Jays, Rays and Orioles.  I don't like the idea of building a team from scratch that is better than everyone else in baseball only to have the Red Sox and Yankees buy 3 type A FA's each to surpass us and  I don't like the idea that we can conceivably be the third best team in baseball and not have a shot at the playoffs.

I would also argue that the addition of a second wild-card would place a premium on winning the division, which I think is a good thing. Its not perfect, but its better than what we have.

Were the Jays in the AL Central, say, would you still think this? I don't ask rhetorically as I really don't know your answer. It just seems, based on your comment, that part of your motivation is that a playoff spot would now open up for a third AL East team in general, and one in specific.

Yes.  I would be very sympathetic to whatever other teams were in the AL East.  If La Liga in Spain were divided into divisions like baseball with a "division winner/one wild card" format, I would have a problem with both Real Madrid and Barcelona being put in the same division, and I'd be highly sympathetic to the complaints of whatever random Spanish sides were permanently put in with them.

The dilution of the playoffs is a distasteful inevitability as far as I am concerned. I really like that the regular season means a great deal. In fact, I would like to see it mean more. Recognizing that time zones and flight schedules and rivalries are all impediments, I would prefer to see a single divison in each of the AL and NL. Top four teams get in. Top two get home field advantage.

I would support this wholeheartedly.  I don't see why a team playing in Minnesota, Cleveland or Texas should enjoy a massive, seemingly permanent structural competitive advantage over teams playing in Baltimore, Tampa and Toronto.  Your proposal would generally eliminate it (leaving the competitive environment somewhat less fair to AL teams than to NL teams, although not terribly so).  But if it's not going to happen, then an extra playoff spot is the least baseball can do.

But if it's not going to happen, then an extra playoff spot is the least baseball can do.

You're probably right. And it means more revenue for MLB, which is really the driving force. 

Even a return to two divisions per league, an east and a west, with two division winners and two wild cards, if even from the same division. Nah, apparently we need five playoff teams.

The Angels must have cash burning a hole in their pockets.  Losing out on FA's left, right and centre.

I wonder if they have a top prospect they'd be desperate enough to trade for a silver slugging right fielder? 

How about a CF with an albatross contract?

Gary Matthews? Yup, that's a stinker and plenty of observers called it from the day they signed it. But there's only 1 year and $10.9M left on it so it's not a big factor going forward.

If he repeats his 2010 he just might do it.

Unfortunately for Wells, 2011 is an odd-numbered year. And that hasn't spelled good news since 2003.

Pending further acquisitions, the best lineup the Jays can field today is something like this:

Which is to say, no current impediments to moving Wells off centre.

Not that it's even a remote possibility that the 40-man won't change between now and spring training... with Emaus gone the bench looks like Molina-Mastroianni-McCoy and your choice of Lawrie or Hechavarria.

That got me thinking about what seems to be a common theme in the blogsphere these days, that being WAR over values defense and thus over states the value of speed dependent players such as Crawford. If there is some truth to that thought (and I confess to not have a clue) I can't help but wonder if the expected WAR regression for Crawford is greater than what is currently being predicted.

I am curious as to the Box's thoughts on the matter. Oh, and I know it really doesn't mean much of anything but I happened to notice that Crawford has a career .708 OPS at Fenway in 76 games. Of course, it is still a small sample AND he won't be facing Boston pitching while playing there but a guy can dream.

I'd love to still live close enough to Toronto to go to ballgames regularly. I'm not a charity either, which is why, when I put down money at the ticket counter, I expect to get a ticket in return. So far I have, every time I've tried it. And more often than not, I've seen a real good ballgame. I haven't regretted such a transaction once, whether the Jays were headed to the playoffs that year or not.

I couldn't agree more.  The girlfriend and I were lucky enough to be treated to back-to-back wins against the Yankees in June.  We enjoyed a good old-fashioned whuppin' of A.J. Burnett (Joey Bats went deep twice!) in the first game, and a 14-inning nail-biter in the second game that almost caused us to miss our flight home .  It's obviously much more enjoyable when the good guys win, but just being there was an amazing experience.  A lot of you folk who live within reasonable driving distance of Jays games don't know just how good you have it.

              G   PA   AB    R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  SB  CS  BB  SO  BAVG   OBP   SLG  OPS

at Fenway    76   338  320  35  88  24   3   4  33  26   1   9  61  .275  .301  .406 .708
at the Trop  68   301  284  44  93   8   6   8  28  36   3  12  45  .327  .349  .482 .831