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Answer me these questions three
Ere the other side you see

---- Tim The Enchanter



I have three questions! Surprise!

1. 2010 saw a rather remarkable dropoff in offense (remarkable when you consider that 2009 wasn't an especially good year for the hitters.) Was it a one-year blip? Do the bats bounce back in 2011?

2. In 2010, the NL almost caught up the the AL - they came very close to playing the AL at an even level. They also won the World Series. They also unveiled a truly impressive crop of young players. Is the tide finally turning? Are the NL's days as the AAAA league behind them? Could they overtake the AL this year?

3. Trivia! Which AL manager made the most first inning pitching changes in 2010?



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Mike Green - Friday, February 04 2011 @ 04:53 PM EST (#229956) #
Answer to question 1:  Runs scored in MLB over the last 5 years were 4.86, 4.80, 4.65, 4.61 and 4.38.  I would say that it might be a little bit of a blip, but the medium trend is pretty clear.  The over/under for runs/game in 2011 should probably be about 4.45.

Answer to question 2:   The AL's dominance is likely to be renewed.  The weak sisters of the AL look to me to be getting better, and the stronger farm systems seem to be in the AL. 

Jdog - Friday, February 04 2011 @ 05:04 PM EST (#229957) #
#3 I'll guess the Brewers
smcs - Friday, February 04 2011 @ 05:14 PM EST (#229958) #
1. 2010 saw a rather remarkable dropoff in offense (remarkable when you consider that 2009 wasn't an especially good year for the hitters.) Was it a one-year blip? Do the bats bounce back in 2011?

It's been a downward trend for the last 7 or so years. I don't expect a drastic jump in either direction. There were 4.38 runs per team per game in 2010, down from 4.61 in 2009. I would expect it to settle in the 4.4 range, and would be much more shocked if it dropped to 4.28 or lower than if it rose to 4.48 or higher.

2. In 2010, the NL almost caught up the the AL - they came very close to playing the AL at an even level. They also won the World Series. They also unveiled a truly impressive crop of young players. Is the tide finally turning? Are the NL's days as the AAAA league behind them? Could they overtake the AL this year?


In terms of players switching leagues, the NL picked up Cliff Lee, Zack Grienke, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Shaun Marcum. The AL picked up Adrian Gonzalez, Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds and Josh Willingham. If this is turning into a pitcher's league, then the league with the better pitching should be the better league, right? If I had to rank the divisions, I would say it goes ALE-NLE-NLW-NLC-ALW-ALC, but after the AL East, it's a bit off a toss-up.

3. Trivia! Which AL manager made the most first inning pitching changes in 2010?

Not Gaston.
ComebyDeanChance - Friday, February 04 2011 @ 05:20 PM EST (#229959) #
1. Three years ago, three of the top bats in the AL were A-Rod, Ramirez and Ortiz. All have since been outed as steroid users, although A-Rod and Ortiz only took them accidentally and Ramirez was attempting to get pregnant. The decreased use of PED's can only deflate offensive numbers. In the NL, Bonds, who also never knowingly took steroids is retired. Unless the manufacturers get well ahead of the testers, it's less and less likely that players will use.

2. As long as New York and Boston have payrolls well ahead of any other teams the AL has an edge. The transfer of players (e.g.. Gonzales from SD to Boston) is still that way, and Cliff Lee is more an anomaly than representative of a trend.

3. Joe Maddon?
prankmunky - Friday, February 04 2011 @ 05:21 PM EST (#229960) #
Although I do have much love for Tim, I thought it was the bridgekeeper who utters that famous phrase.

1. I think the pitching dominance will continue but not to the extent that we saw last year (it was too much of a blip!).
2. The NL does have a great young crop of potential all star talent developing but I still think the AL is and will continue to be the superior league.
3. Im going to guess the Indians. So Manny Acta for no particular reason.

Chuck - Friday, February 04 2011 @ 05:47 PM EST (#229962) #

Runs scored in MLB over the last 5 years were 4.86, 4.80, 4.65, 4.61 and 4.38. 

This could be due to random variability. Some might attribute this to the presumed lessened effect of steroids. But what about the seeming focus on defense as of late? Teams seem* to be valuing the defensive ability of position players more than they ever have before, and perhaps related roster decisions are resulting in a decrease in offense.

* Presumably this speculation would be borne out with a higher percentage of balls in play being turned into outs. Not sure where such numbers would live.

mathesond - Friday, February 04 2011 @ 07:33 PM EST (#229968) #
Although I do have much love for Tim, I thought it was the bridgekeeper who utters that famous phrase.

To me, he'll always be the old man from Scene 24
John Northey - Friday, February 04 2011 @ 09:49 PM EST (#229970) #
Hmm... a good question has come to mind with the comment about defense being so important now.

As offense goes down will players who can hit well but not field so well become the new market inefficiency? Could it be that Tampa is on the leading edge, with their signings of Manny and Damon? Could the Jays be there as well with plans to play Bautista at 3B and Lind at 1B despite defensive issues?

Hm... I'm thinking back to the mid-80's and who did well. The Dodgers played Pedro Guerrero at third fairly often (over 40 times) despite horrid defense to get his 181 OPS+ bat into the lineup. The Mets used Howard Johnson, a poor third baseman, at short sometimes in an effort to up their offense. Those are off the top of my head, but I'm sure many other cases exist (like Jimy Williams putting Cecil Fielder at 3B and 2B sometimes, and trying desperately to get him decent at 3B in spring training much to the pitchers chagrin). Back then teams scored roughly 4.3 runs a game, which we are reaching again.

Also of note: back then we saw teams with up to 300 SB while others were at 60, teams with 200 HR and teams with under 80, even an AL team with 99 sac bunts. A large variety of offenses existed due to the lower scoring environment leading to a lot more entertainment than walk-walk-home run. In 1985 3 teams scored 800 runs - one thanks to a high batting average, another to 200+ HR, and another with 150+ SB mixed with lots of walks. The Jays were just below that level with an all-around offense (144 SB, 158 HR, 53 triples to lead the league, but few walks-their biggest offensive weakness).

I'm hopeful that is where we are headed. Baseball is a lot more fun when each team has its own method of winning put into place. In that respect I think the Mets might be behind the curve as their GM said they see stolen bases as a footnote. Their value jumps if offense is low.
themousepad - Friday, February 04 2011 @ 10:10 PM EST (#229971) #
1. I've heard that in 2010 the diametres of the bat's were made smaller. Not exactly sure where i heard it, but it was credible source. This may possibly explain the lack of hitting.
Magpie - Friday, February 04 2011 @ 11:04 PM EST (#229973) #
Not Gaston.

Indeed. It's almost a trick question. The correct answer is Ozzie Guillen, who made the only first inning pitching change in the AL in 2010. Yup - there was exactly one, and Ozzie was forced into it when Gavin Floyd's shoulder tightened up 7 pitches into a game against Oakland.
Magpie - Friday, February 04 2011 @ 11:18 PM EST (#229976) #
The AL's dominance is likely to be renewed.

Three things that struck me (ouch!) about 2010:

1) The NL overall was just 16 games under .500; they were 24 games under in 2008, 46 games under in 2008.

2) Eight NL teams had winning records against the AL, while six AL teams had winning records against the NL. The very best outfits are still the Beasts of the East (who were two of the six) - but the gap between the NL and the rest of the AL may already be gone.

3) All those rookies!
AWeb - Saturday, February 05 2011 @ 03:03 PM EST (#229985) #
I have three questions! Surprise!

1. 2010 saw a rather remarkable dropoff in offense (remarkable when you consider that 2009 wasn't an especially good year for the hitters.) Was it a one-year blip? Do the bats bounce back in 2011?

2. In 2010, the NL almost caught up the the AL - they came very close to playing the AL at an even level. They also won the World Series. They also unveiled a truly impressive crop of young players. Is the tide finally turning? Are the NL's days as the AAAA league behind them? Could they overtake the AL this year?

3. Trivia! Which AL manager made the most first inning pitching changes in 2010?

1. Focusing on defense has two effects that would be hard to distinguish from one another - worse hitters and more out on balls in play. This is what hitF/X will be useful for - did runs go down because the balls weren't hit as well, or because defenses got better. My guess- offense goes up this year.

2. AL will still win interleague play (the best, although imperfect due to DH/no DH, measure of the leagues).

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