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There were a few story lines around yesterday's win that I could have featured in the headline.  I went with the Jays win despite the "future of the franchise" riding the pine.  Adam Lind; Aaron Hill and Travis Snider have all been struggling and John Farrell elected to give them some down time.  I could have gone with how the West Coast trip has been the ruin of many a young teams dream but I didn't.  These west coast trips are tough and a 2-4 record shows that.  There is also a redemption angle, after blowing a lead on Monday the Jays capitalize on Seattle blowing a lead yesterday.  Chris Ray, really, in a one run game? 

Some thoughts on recent events:

Jose Bautista had the big hit yesterday.  But as I was following the game on my phone on the way home from work I saw this beside Jose's name: 2HR; 2 RBI.  Before yesterday Bautista had two RBI's, both on solo home runs.  Jose is hitting over .350 but he hadn't been driving in runs.  I believe Jose is getting used to how he is being pitched to in 2011.  Mostly he is seeing a steady diet of breaking balls, it was a hanging breaking ball that he jacked his home run off yesterday.  Jose is trying not to swing at too many of the breaking balls and as a result he has ten walks this season.  But from time to time a pitcher will throw a fastball, usually when it is not expected, and Bautista has been missing them.  Because he is expecting a breaking ball he is fractionally late on the fastball.  I think he will adapt as the season progresses but this adaption is a constant theme for break out guys.  Aaron Hill doesn't see too many inside fastballs since he hit 30 bombs a few years ago.

Quick question, Jose's SLG this season is 618.  That is fifth on the Jays.  Name the four players ahead of him.  Answers below.

This brings me to issue number 2.  Remember in the spring when Adam Lind had a new swing; when Travis Snider was going to have a break-out season; and Aaron Hill was also going to bounce back?  It's not quite going to plan, is it.  I know it's early days so keep throwing those guys out there but this is a big year for these three to establish themselves as "the future". 

Courtesy of Mike Wilner for the idea, Jayson Nix played 434 innings at 3B last season and made 16 errors.  Edwin Encarnacion played 841 innings and made 18 errors.   Nix has made a couple in the last two days so watch out.

JP Arencibia has played much better than expected both on offense and defense.  JPA has four walks and seven K's so far.  That is better than expected plus his OPS of 1110.  He is very good at using the whole field to hit.

The Jays are +17 in runs, second only to Texas in the AL.  Based on pythagoras the Jays would be in first place in the AL East.  But their record in one run games is 2-5, and that is pulling them down right now.

Kyle Drabek has shown the ability to win when he is not at his best.  Yesterday he was wild, something we saw in 2010.

Here are his stats from Brooks Baseball:

Pitch Type Avg Speed Max Speed Avg H-Break Avg V-Break Count Strikes / % Swinging Strikes / % Linear Weights Time to Plate
FF (FourSeam Fastball) 92.05 94.8 -2.25 6.21 24 14 / 58.33% 1 / 4.17% -0.2303 0.413
CU (Curveball) 82.95 89.9 -0.24 -4.19 14 7 / 50.00% 1 / 7.14% 0.7819 0.458
FC (Cutter) 90.27 92.1 1.33 3.56 10 3 / 30.00% 1 / 10.00% -0.0424 0.419
FT (TwoSeam Fastball) 92.53 94.9 -6.37 4.08 66 35 / 53.03% 6 / 9.09% 1.2652 0.411
Pitch classifications provided by the Gameday Algorithm and may be inaccurate.

Drabek threw 90 fastballs out of 114 pitches.  His strike percentage was barely over 50%.  I assume he threw so many fastballs because he was behind in the count so much.  Drabek had nine swinging strikes yesterday.  Drabek's cutter was his best pitch in his first start of 2011 but he is dropping it because he can't control it.  He needs that cutter against some of the lefty heavy teams like New York and Boston.

The Jays head into Boston for four games, including the patriots day game Monday midday.  In the first three games the Jays roll out Brett Cecil; Jo-Jo Reyes; and Jesse Litsch, each one pitching with thoughts of Brandon Morrow in their minds.  Morrow will make one more Dunedin start, on Sunday.  With an off-day on Thursday the Jays can slot Morrow into the rotation next weekend and one of these three will be out of luck.  Boston are reeling at the moment but having to face three pitchers who are not on top of their games in the first three conests of the series could be just what the doctor ordered.  It will be an interesting weekend.

The answer to my question is JPA, Jose Molina, Yunel Escobar and Corey Patterson.

What else is going on?

14 April 2011; No Lind; No Hill; No Snider; No Problem | 72 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
China fan - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#232759) #
Shi Davidi has written a good analysis of the new Jays philosophy in player development, with lots of quotes from Tony LaCava.  It's a very encouraging viewpoint.  One thing that clearly emerges is that the Jays are committed to the "go slowly" approach to player promotions in the minors.  "No one’s career was ever hurt by waiting a little longer,” says LaCava. 
Sister - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#232761) #
Thanks China Fan.

I'm confused after reading Davidi's piece given how Gose, d'Arnaud, and Hechavarria have been promoted thus far (too soon, in my opinion). I would have given each another two months in Dunedin to excel. All have been moved up with less than stellar results at the level below.

James W - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#232765) #
If I may, I believe Carlos Delgado missed out on 500 home runs because he spent two extra years in the minors to improve his ability behind the plate. In the end, he played 2 games at catcher in his career. I contend he was hurt by waiting a little longer. (Feel free to argue that there wasn't room for him on the 1992 or 1993 roster, or that his career may not have turned out as it did without that extra seasoning.)
James W - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#232766) #
I should do my double-checking first, before posting. Delgado spent the majority of the 1994 and 1995 seasons in the minors, when he could have been playing with the Jays. Edit the 1992 or 1993 to be 1994 or 1995 when you go back to reread the above comment.
TamRa - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#232767) #
I was a bit surprised re Gose, but I think the explanation of getting Adeiny into Luis Rivera's sphere of influance perfectly justifies the choice with him.  Particularly in that they didn't just auto-promote him to AAA this spring.

d'Arnaud (and Gose for that matter) probably arises from what they see scouting-wise that doesn't necessarily show up on stat sheets

Thomas - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#232768) #
Jose is trying not to swing at too many of the breaking balls and as a result he has ten walks this season. But from time to time a pitcher will throw a fastball, usually when it is not expected, and Bautista has been missing them. Because he is expecting a breaking ball he is fractionally late on the fastball.

That's an interesting point, Gerry. I only saw the highlight, but if my memory serves correctly, the pitch that Bautista popped up to Smoak in Tuesday's 8th inning looked like a fastball. Last year you wouldn't have seen Bautista pop a hittable fastball up to first base.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#232771) #
Arencibia's career line is now .227/.292/.515.  It's only 72 PAs, but those numbers are in line with what expectations have been, but with better W/K/HR numbers than anticipated.  The nice part is that the low batting average is driven by a BABIP of .250, and if that picks up to .280-.300, he's a valuable offensive player. 
bpoz - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#232772) #
Nice philosophy!!!

I always thought Delgado should have hustled more running to 1st. The Catcher experiment failed, I feel that he was not a good defensive 1st baseman, but I don't know how to judge.

A player has to try to make the most of his abilities, work hard and also be instructed & hopefully learn to play smart.

I would like to know at what ballpark number sample size is not small anymore. I am really looking forward to critical evaluations of player performance from Bauxites. IMO Litsch has done very well so far, when Morrow returns I hope he can do as well.
Sano - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#232773) #
The Davidi piece is interesting. I think there are many things that an organization can do to ensure continuity and good teaching throughout the levels (same terminology, ensuring communication between coaches at all levels, etc).

But I wonder about a lot of this rhetoric coming out from the Jays now. It seems like they are sending the message that they are doing things in new ways and trying ground-breaking approaches. My question is whether there can really be "new" strategies to developing baseball players? Are we being sold something here? I guess I'm just skeptical that we'll actually have more success than before simply because we ensure that the same language is used at every level.

Fundamentally it comes down to talent and coaching for me. If we can get better at those two things, irrespective of everything else, we'll have better ball players emerging from the system.
85bluejay - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#232775) #

I'm a firm believer in the "go slowly" approach to promotions - Tampa does it beautifully & we should follow - I remember all the "Free Travis Snider" postings in 2008 &  Travis is yet to establish himself in the show, while accumulating valuable service time  - I think he could have benefited from some more time in the minors - I hope fans remember this with all the "Free Brett Lawrie " hype I've read.

Carlos Delgado made the Jays in 1994 & after starting off red hot on fastballs, proved he couldn't hit the breaking pitches & was given more minor league seasoning - he and Alex Gonzalez were fast-tracked that year because the jays were expected to be contenders and gambled - I have no problem with this approach as when Atlanta went with Heyward last year.BTW, the team shouldn't be concerned if this "go slow" approach shortens the ML career of the player - their responsibility  is to get the best production of the player while he is employed by the team.

 

 

 

85bluejay - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#232776) #

Sano,

My reading of the article doesn't suggest any "new" strategies to developing players - just different from the previous regimen which is to be expected - actually, it mentioned that the Cleveland organisation used this approach when John Farallel & Tony lacava worked there - I don't think the Jays are reinventing the Wheel when it comes to developing players,just that they believe they are following a proven strategy. 

Gerry - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#232777) #

If Luis Perez is called up recall that Tom Signore, his pitching coach, told me that he felt Perez was best suited to a bullpen role:

From 2010:

BB: Speaking of relievers last season you told me that you felt Luis Perez would be best suited to be a reliever.  Do you still believe that?

TS: I still believe he would be an outstanding relief pitcher.

BB: Is he the same pitcher in 2010 as he was in 2009?

TS: Yeah he is quite frankly, he is not much different.  We are trying to get him a harder breaking ball and it's there, he just doesn't have that confidence to break it out.  It might be a deal where we force him to throw it.  But he has been good again last time out, he didn't get the victory but he pitched a complete game for us.

MatO - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#232779) #

Carlos Delgado made the Jays in 1994 & after starting off red hot on fastballs, proved he couldn't hit the breaking pitches & was given more minor league seasoning

Delgado not being able to hit breaking pitches was a popular urban legend at the time.  In 1994 Delgado started off hot and then went into a slump. The team had high expectations, being defending champs, so they panicked and sent Delgado down.  On top of that he was playing out of position in LF.  They had Olerud and Molitor at 1B and DH and I think they'd basically decided by then that he wasn't going to be a catcher in the majors.  He went to AAA and hit about .315 in 1994 and 1995 so I don't think he really learned anything there.

uglyone - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#232781) #
"Arencibia's career line is now .227/.292/.515. It's only 72 PAs, but those numbers are in line with what expectations have been, but with better W/K/HR numbers than anticipated. The nice part is that the low batting average is driven by a BABIP of .250, and if that picks up to .280-.300, he's a valuable offensive player."

I've been most impressed with his approach at the plate.

He's not nearly as much of a hacker as I was led to believe. He consistently has good, patient at bats.
85bluejay - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#232787) #
Off-topic - Given the position he plays, Troy Tulowitzki may the most valuable player in baseball.
cybercavalier - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#232789) #
Thank Chinafan for the link.

After reading all the comments above, several ideas can be drawn up:

Minor league is a place to let or make a hitter (prospect or not) learn a new baseball skill or refit flaws.

1)  Las Vegas is not a particular good place for player development (concluded from previous posts), because hitters' performances are inflated.
1.1) Hitters need to perform much better show useful clues on how they would perform in major league.
1.1.1) Thesis: Arencibia is a better skilled than Jarrett Hoffpauir.
1.1.1.1) Arencibia: After winning the PCL MVP, his performance so far in ML is impressive.
1.1.1.2) Hoffpauir: despite stints with the cardinals and statistics impressive performance with the Vegas 51s, his performance with the Jays was not even close to what is expected from his AAA performance. His performance during recent stint with the Padres is yet again proving the thesis.
1.1.2) Anithesis: a Jays hitter is performing so badly at AAA, particularly with the 51s, and all in a sudden a playing very well in ML. And he is not considered at all a skilled player or prospect before promotion to AAA.

1.2) Given the above, Las Vegas is a testing ground, deemed major league ready by scouting department.
1.2.1.) So far, Mastroianni and Thames are performing well at AAA.
1.2.2.) They only played a handful of AAA games, too soon for permanent ML promotion.
1.2.1.1.) Given the above, promoting Mastro to ML for a few ML games until McCoy is ready to go north again with the Jays is a sound strategy, based solely on minor league performance.

2.) Given the above, New Hamsphire is the highest level Jays' minor league team for player development
2.1) Gose, Hech, d'Arnaud are so skillful that they are better challenged at AA, reflective of their high prospect rankings.

Defensive position are not accounted.
Pitchers are not included.

cybercavalier - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#232791) #
Hitters need to perform much better to show useful clues on how they would perform in major league.

Delgado was a talented ML player despite that slump in 1994 and the failed catcher experiemnt. Consequently, his performance during brief AAA stints in 1994 and 1995 was reflective of his skiils. At any rate, he didn't learn much at AAA.
Sano - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#232792) #
You're right, they aren't reinventing the wheel. I suppose I'm just a little tired of hearing about AA's grand plan for revitalizing the minor league system. It's fun to have the biggest scouting staff in the majors, but that's not the be-all/end-all for me.

That being said, was Cleveland all that successful under Farrell/Lacava at producing major-league players from their own system?
bpoz - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#232794) #
I hope someone answers your question about Cleveland player development Sano.

As far as AA's plan for the 2010 & 2011 ML teams go, based on what he has said, he believes neither team had/has a good chance of making the post season. He has however improved the minor league talent with trades, drafting more younger players than before in the June draft & signing a lot of them at high cost. More money spent on signing foreign players too.
bpoz - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#232795) #
Are we going to have a preview thread on the Boston series? If so Drabek & Lackey are not scheduled to pitch.

I see the heavy weights of baseball in a huge battle for credibility or lack of.

Small sample size. 2-9 Bos 6-6 Tor

Pythogaras Theory.

Home Park & crowd, Historical record team & personnel.

LHP factor.

Running or slugging?

13 hitters or pitchers?

I honestly don't mean to be cruel but Patterson & Bard will meet.


Magpie - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#232796) #
I always thought Delgado should have hustled more running to 1st. The Catcher experiment failed

Oh, I thought he was generally running as hard as he could. He just didn't move very fast.

As for catching - it wasn't an experiment. He had always been a catcher, from the time he started playing. He was a catcher when they signed him at age 16, he was expected to be the catcher of the future. The team was set on this - I actually remember talking to Dennis Holmberg, a manager in the system, about this very subject back in the early 1990s (I thought he was too good a hitting prospect to waste time with catching) and Holmberg confirmed that the organization completely expected him to take over for Borders, and he himself was confident that Delgado would be able to do so.

And Delgado was willing, and worked hard at his defense - but he just wasn't cut out to be a catcher. And he ended up playing 685 minor league games - which is simply an enormous number of games for a player of his ability - in the meantime.
cybercavalier - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#232797) #
IMO, I don't think AA and his staff are reinventing the wheel. Even they are, the new wheel is just another philosophy for management on minor league and player development, and its success (or failure for that matter) is reflective of AA's roots in scouting. Just like the "buy low sell high" philosophy in turning Alex Gonzalez 2.0 into Escobar, dynasties in ML show more than just two philosophies. I think signing JBau is a third philosphy: retaining core players for keeping up with other teams every season.

I am not sure, but I think during the long stint of postseason apperance in 1990's, the Indians had kept Lofton, Thome, Vizqual, Manny, David Justice and other. And so far I didn't mention  pitchers including Nagy and Hershiser yet. Just a picture of how difficult to be a postseason bound team season after season.

And I concur with bpoz' idea on AA's plan for Jays' post season chances in 2010 and 2011.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#232798) #
I thought that Delgado had a throwing shoulder problem which led to his conversion away from catching, Mags.  Is my memory playing tricks again?
Nick Holmes - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#232802) #
Sano,
Farrell was director of player development from November 2001 to November 2006. Cleveland draft picks from 2002 to 2005, to debut with the team, not including cups-of-coffees or minor-leaguers acquired through trades (because I'm lazy):

2002
Jeremy Guthrie
Brian Slocum
Ben Francisco

2003
Ryan Garko
Kevin Kouzmanoff
Aaron Laffey

2004
Jeremy Sowers
Scott Lewis
Chris Gimenez
Tony Sipp

2005
Trevor Crowe
Jensen Lewis

How successful is that? I don't know. Haven't got time to compare, but my guess is not terrible. All data from Baseball-Reference.com, of course.

Oh, cybercavelier, shouldn't it be:
7. Whereof defense, thereof one must be silent.
stevieboy22 - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#232804) #
How successful is that? I don't know. Haven't got time to compare, but my guess is not terrible. All data from Baseball-Reference.com, of course.

I would say it's closer to terrible than not terrible.
VBF - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#232805) #

That's not really the whole story. Out of curiosity and randomly I checked Grady Sizemore's path to Cleveland. He spent 2.5 years in the Cleveland minors, from A+ to AAA before arriving with the big club. That counts to player development too, they had to transition the player from the Expos organization (determine the appropiate level for him), establish a plan for him, and introduce him to a whole bunch of new people with a bunch of new ideas. Still counts.

VBF - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#232806) #
Not to mention that player development is not independant of scouting strength, just as nobody typically blames the player deveopment department when a number one pick ends up as a bust (see: any thread on Romero in 2007). It's very difficult to isolate one fom the other. It's hard to say whether or not those players listed aren't poor draft selections who maximized their ceiling because of a terrific player development system. Especially if you're talking about teams who obey(ed) slot guides.
Nick Holmes - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#232807) #
Still counts. yeah, I just didn't have time to do more than dump a few names, anyone have time to compare Cleveland with say, the Jays, Giants, Rockies & Mets for the years of 2002-2006?
Sano - Friday, April 15 2011 @ 12:20 AM EDT (#232811) #
Don't get me wrong, I like the new approach. More scouts is better than less, more of a centralized system better than a less organized one, etc. I'd like to hear a little more about exactly what sort of benchmarks they're setting for promotions now. I guess ultimately, the proof's in the pudding though. All this talk will not be worth much if we don't get more talented youngsters coming through.

That record of Farrell's with the Indians doesn't exactly blow me away either.
cybercavalier - Friday, April 15 2011 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#232838) #
Hey Nick. May I know your interpretation of that sentence? It arises from philosophy, which doesn't respond to baseball on this site. Perhaps we all prefer less scholastic style, pal.
Nick Holmes - Friday, April 15 2011 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#232850) #
Sorry cc, your style recalled Wittgensien's Tractatus, didn't mean to freak you out.
Still crunching minor league development, more later.
Gerry - Friday, April 15 2011 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#232852) #
Cecil seems to have more movement on his pitches tonight.  Now if he could just figure out where the ball is going.
Sano - Friday, April 15 2011 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#232853) #
Gerry,

I'm still concerned that he seems to not be able to bring it up to 92 like he used to. The high fastball that he struck Gonzalez out on was 89. It's a small, but significant, difference in my opinion. Some pitchers learn to pitch softer but I would say that it takes a lot more skill to do so.
Gerry - Friday, April 15 2011 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#232854) #

Sano:

Cecil had problems with velocity, movement and command.  I think movement and command would be the first two in my list to correct.  The velocity may come once he relaxes on the mound.

I thought Cecil slowed up in his delivery over the last three innings and that seemed to help his control.

greenfrog - Friday, April 15 2011 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#232855) #
Still, gotta give Cecil credit. He hung tough and ended up pitching a pretty good game. Hopefully he can somehow keep giving the Jays quality starts while he fine-tunes his mechanical issues.

Is Rivera really this bad? Hard to see the Jays getting much above .500 without a half-decent DH.
ComebyDeanChance - Friday, April 15 2011 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#232856) #
I was somewhat surprised by the decision to let Rzepcinski face Lowrie, who has a career OPS of .960 vs. lefties and .680 vs. righties. Rzepcinski is like a backup quarterback - he always seems better and should be playing more, until you actually see him play. 5 batters, 3 reach base. Comes into a 4 run game and leaves with the tying run at the plate and a run across.
greenfrog - Friday, April 15 2011 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#232857) #
BIg test for Rauch here against the best the Sox have to offer. This inning could make the difference between a decent and a really rough road trip for the Jays.
Mike Green - Friday, April 15 2011 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#232858) #
Well, that was pretty solid work from Rauch. Threw strikes and no meatballs.

We'll take the 1 run victory even if the score is not settled from earlier in the week.
greenfrog - Friday, April 15 2011 @ 11:37 PM EDT (#232859) #
Solid team performance, especially after the first-inning fiasco with Lind's HR/ground-rule double/foul ball, the Boston home runs, and Snider's error. Man, it can be tough to win in Fenway.
Alex Obal - Saturday, April 16 2011 @ 12:11 AM EDT (#232860) #
We'll take the 1 run victory even if the score is not settled from earlier in the week.

One good sign is that the Jays haven't had any opportunities to settle that score all year.
92-93 - Saturday, April 16 2011 @ 12:25 AM EDT (#232861) #
Rivera has 2 singles and 3 walks in 26 PA vs. Josh Beckett and Patterson has done nothing as well - McCoy in CF, McDonald at 3B, and Arencibia/Nix at DH?
ayjackson - Saturday, April 16 2011 @ 01:11 AM EDT (#232863) #

I`ll take m y chances with Patterson over McCoy.

Is Rivera still on this team?  I`ll ask again in the morning.

dan gordon - Saturday, April 16 2011 @ 01:22 AM EDT (#232864) #

I too, was amazed that Farrell let Zep face Lowrie.  He had already thrown 25 pitches in the inning, and Lowrie kills lefthanders, while he struggles against righties.  Rzepczynski was struggling with his control, similar to the Seattle fiasco.  He's got so much movement on his pitches, I think he basically needs to do what the Indians pitching coach told Justin Masterson this spring - "just throw that little white thing over that larger white thing over there".  It's working great for Masterson.  Rauch looked very good.  Worst start in Red Sox history. 

Regarding Rivera, I mentioned on another thread that he is typically terrible in April.  Have a look at his monthly OPS splits.  Terrible in April, mediocre in May, very good the rest of the year.

That was a very strange home run/foul ball in the first inning.  It looks like the foul pole is behind the fence, and the ball may have hit the top of the fence fair, but then bounced past the pole to the right of the pole.

I suspect those pitcher/batter numbers vs Beckett are too small to have any relevance.

Dave Till - Saturday, April 16 2011 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#232870) #
 Delgado spent the majority of the 1994 and 1995 seasons in the minors, when he could have been playing with the Jays

The problem was that Delgado could only play 1B or DH, and those positions were occupied by Olerud (who had just hit .363) and Molitor (future Hall of Famer). The Jays tried playing Delgado in the outfield in Syracuse; if he had been able to handle it, even marginally, he would have been back in the majors by 1995 for sure.

You can criticize the Jays for not moving him off of the catcher's spot sooner, but hindsight is 20-20 - can you imagine somebody with Delgado's bat as your starting catcher? It's hard not to dream a little.

Nice win last night - the Sox genuinely are a good team, but at some point all of those losses are going to get to them, if they haven't already. If the Jays win more games this series, they could drop Boston into the Pit Of Despair.
ayjackson - Saturday, April 16 2011 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#232871) #

 Pit Of Despair

That`s not good.

uglyone - Saturday, April 16 2011 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#232872) #
I dunno - I still look at that red sox pitching staff, from top to bottom, and only find one pitcher on the entire staff that I'd feel fully confident in in their current role, and that's Lester. And then I look at their lineup and see that the 3 premium defensive positions - CF, SS, C - are flat out weaknesses for their team, and that there's not much they can do to fix that. Which is kind of bizarre for such a pricey team - you'd think their money would have given them a clear advantage at these premium positions, but not here. (Theo may have some 'splaining to do about that fairly soon)

sure it's a good team, but it's nowhere near as good a team as some were making them out to be this offseason. they better start winning soon, because IMO they're not SO talented that they can expect to overcome a massive defecit in the standings.
ayjackson - Saturday, April 16 2011 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#232873) #
Uglyone, I think our standards of a good team our obscured by living day-to-day in the AL East.  I still look at Boston`s lineup and see it as clearly better top to bottom than any other team in the AL East.  We all have big question marks.
uglyone - Saturday, April 16 2011 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#232874) #
I agree...but I'm saying that IMO that roster is not THAT much better than the other AL Easters that they can necessarily be expected to overcome this start if it gets much worse. they need to start winning, and soon, or even their talented roster might be buried shockingly early.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 16 2011 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#232875) #
Interestingly, people keep talking about the slumping Red Sox players (among position players, Youk, Crawford, Salty, Varitek, Scutaro, Ellsbury). But the Jays have amassed a 7-6 record despite some severe slumps among their regulars (Hill, Rivera, Snider, Encarnacion) and injuries/bereavement (Morrow, Francisco, Davis, + a few days of Bautista, Escobar, and EE lost).

So it's promising that the team is holding its own. Fortunately, Hill and Lind were showing some signs of life yesterday. Still, between them they have 110 PA and two walks, which is (IMHO) unacceptable. Right now their extremely low OBP is being masked by the fabulous performances of Escobar, Patterson and Bautista in front of them, but when those three players cool off, things could get ugly quickly.
China fan - Saturday, April 16 2011 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#232883) #
The fact that Rivera is on the bench today, and John McDonald is in the lineup, should tell you everything you need to know about Farrell's opinion of Rivera's offensive abilities these days.   I would also expect Rivera to be frequently on the bench when Encarnacion returns to the lineup next week.  And, to be honest, I hope he also loses some ABs when Podsednik returns to the lineup.  Farrell said today that Podsednik is recovering fast and will be playing games in the FSL this week, so he could be in the Jays lineup within the next week or two.  Podsednik will presumably take over the McCoy slot on the roster, but frankly I'd rather see him at DH than Rivera at this point, unless Rivera improves in a hurry.  Podsednik at least offers some speed and hustle and a decent batting average -- none of which Rivera seems capable of providing at this point.
92-93 - Saturday, April 16 2011 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#232887) #
Ellsbury in CF and Scutaro/Lowrie at SS are far from "flat out weaknesses". You can't field an All-Star at every position.
Mike Green - Saturday, April 16 2011 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#232888) #
Is it just me, or is Jed Lowrie going to be the starting Red Sox everyday shortstop very, very soon?
Dave Till - Saturday, April 16 2011 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#232889) #
It's not just you. When the Jays pulled their clever "fake steal" move on Friday, I noticed that when Scutaro moved two steps to his left to cover second, and Escobar's ground ball was hit to where Scutaro had been, he wasn't able to move two steps to his right to field the ball. It was a clever maneuver, but I think that had Escobar been playing short, he would have had that ball easily.

Scutaro has been a good player, but he was stretched a bit at short when he was in Toronto (having Rolen at third helped him bigtime), and he's not getting any younger.

scottt - Saturday, April 16 2011 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#232891) #
Villanueva looks good every time he's out there.

2 strikeouts, a ground out and an infield single from Perez.  So far, so good.



Thomas - Saturday, April 16 2011 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#232892) #
Is it just me, or is Jed Lowrie going to be the starting Red Sox everyday shortstop very, very soon?

It's not just you. I traded for Lowrie in my keeper league this offseason for that very reason. He has a good approach at the plate and doesn't miss many pitches he should hit. Red Sox fans are upset that Francona isn't playing him more already this season. Interestingly, Lowrie is probably the only non-Canadian/non-Blue Jay major leaguer to spend a good portion of his offseason in Toronto.

I'd love nothing more than to kick the Red Sox when they are down, but today's game was a pitching mismatch. I'm curious to see what Litsch will go against the Red Sox tomorrow, but even with the way the Red Sox are playing now, a split would be a good result. Things might have been different if the Jays got to face Lackey.

dan gordon - Saturday, April 16 2011 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#232893) #

Lowrie should certainly be starting vs lefties.  He absolutely mashes them.  The thing is, though, he's one of these switch hitters who probably shouldn't switch hit.  He hasn't been very good vs righties so far in his mlb career, with an OPS below .700 against them, about 250 points lower than his OPS vs lefties.  Hard to believe he couldn't do better by simply staying with his strong side and batting right vs righties.  Being weak against righties, is of course, a significant problem for a switch hitter, since so many AB's come against them.

Another example of the problems caused by the more aggressive baserunning approach the Jays are taking this year.  McDonald caught stealing in the 8th inning down by 3 runs.  May have been a busted hit and run, but still, trailing by 3 runs late is not the time be burning baserunners.

I think Reyes may have just pitched himself off this team.  I certainly hope so, anyway.

Interesting analysis of the foul ball call on Adam Lind's fly ball on the Fan and on the TV broadcast.  It seems pretty clear that the ball hit the wall in fair territory and bounced to the right of the pole.  Should have been a HR.  At least it didn't cost the Jays the game.  I liked the comparison to the NFL where the referee explains the call after replay review to everybody.  In mlb it's all a big secret.  Apparently, they even said the Farrell "you can't ask questions" when he tried to get an explanation.  Ridiculous.

Chuck - Saturday, April 16 2011 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#232894) #

I think Reyes may have just pitched himself off this team.

Maybe he and Purcey can be packaged in a trade.

Mike Green - Sunday, April 17 2011 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#232897) #
I am guessing that Perez will probably be sent back to Las Vegas after Monday's game, and Reyes will be moved to the pen. If the scouts have formed the opinion that Reyes is more likely to be a successful left-handed reliever than Purcey due to having better control, that is a reasonable (but maybe not correct) judgment. That's why they pay the scouts the medium-size bucks.

Speaking of big bucks, I saw the movie Inside Job (about the 2008 financial collapse) last night. Most of the stuff I knew, but the involvement of the rating agencies was something I had missed. You'll never look at a AAA rating the same after. And as for betting against one's own clients, that is all too familiar a story for baseball fans.
92-93 - Sunday, April 17 2011 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#232904) #
Getting caught at 3rd base down 5 runs in the 8th inning reflects very poorly on the manager. The aggressiveness is over the top.
ogator - Sunday, April 17 2011 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#232905) #
  Getting caught at third, five runs down in the 8th is not aggressive.  It is simply baseball unintelligent.  When you haven't got steak, peddle that sizzle.
Kasi - Sunday, April 17 2011 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#232906) #
1. We really don't know if it was a called steal by the coaches or the player's decision.
2. Sure it didn't work out, but the reason we won the game on friday had a lot to do with a similar decision. If Nix doesn't fake the run Escobar hits into a double play and no 4 run rally.

Alex Obal - Sunday, April 17 2011 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#232907) #
I actually wouldn't mind seeing Reyes given a few more chances to find himself the rotation. He's got a great fastball, he's left-handed, and Litsch is scuffling. Brandon Morrow looked atrocious last April too...
Kasi - Sunday, April 17 2011 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#232908) #
I would agree with that. Litsch doesn't exactly fill me with confidence either. I think Reyes does have more talent, the question is can he harness it well.
China fan - Sunday, April 17 2011 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#232909) #

Alex, you raise an interesting point:  could Litsch be optioned to the minors when Morrow returns, rather than trying to squeeze Reyes into a severely-overcrowded bullpen?  It's an interesting idea, worth considering.  For a contrary view, here's Wilner defending Litsch on his blog today:

"Litsch was terrific against a tough Boston squad, save for one rather large swing.... In the overall, he gave up four earned runs on seven hits in six innings, walking one and striking out five.  He threw 97 pitches to get 18 outs, compared to the 94 pitches Reyes threw yesterday to get his nine.  Again, Litsch retired 13 in a row at one point -- Reyes’ high water-mark on that score yesterday was three."

Alex Obal - Sunday, April 17 2011 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#232910) #
I'm also BSing a bit in that I gave up on today's game after the second inning. Maybe Litsch looked better toward the end...
92-93 - Sunday, April 17 2011 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#232911) #
A lot of hating on Litsch for no reason. Other than Romero nobody in the rotation has pitched appreciably better than him, and certainly not Reyes. He left a juicy pitch down the pipe for Ellsbury to hammer but he buckled down and pitched a nice game despite the efforts of Nix and the home plate umpire.
Flex - Sunday, April 17 2011 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#232912) #
I have a lot more faith in Litsch than I do Reyes at this stage. I've seen Litsch win. Can't say the same for Reyes. And Litsch appears to have much more command of his stuff. One terrible pitch, terribly timed, doesn't change that.
dan gordon - Sunday, April 17 2011 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#232913) #

The baserunning on this team is getting to be terrible.  Snider picked off on a line drive - we don't make that mistake on my slopitch team.  The first thing the 1st base coach says after "nice hit" is watch out for a line drive, don't get picked off.  Then that ridiculous move by Patterson trying to steal 3rd in the 8th inning down by 5 runs - that's beyond stupid.  Granted, the fake steal earlier in the game netted them a run at the cost of an out, which is a good trade, but there's a big difference between aggressive baeball and stupid baseball.  The Jays have crossed that line.  That's 2 games in a row they've had a runner caught stealing while trailing by at least 3 runs late in the game.   At the start of the season, they talked about adding a bit of variety to their offense, which is fine, but they have gone way, way beyond that.  Burning all these baserunners is not the way to build a successful offense.  If they keep doing this, it's going to make it tougher for them to contend once the talent is in place to do so.  Hopefully, they will figure that out before that time.

With Francisco and Morrow back soon, and the return to a 12-man staff, 3 pitchers will have to get the boot or be sent down.  I'd say it's Reyes, Perez and Janssen. 

Glad to see them change the nutty scoring decision on that grounder to 3rd and charge Nix with an error.  So how many errors is that now for Encarnacion, Nix and Lawrie - 10, 11??  The hot corner is causing this team some serious grief. 

ayjackson - Sunday, April 17 2011 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#232914) #
Jmac wasn`t trying to steal yesterday; it was a hit and run that Escobar fanned on.
dan gordon - Sunday, April 17 2011 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#232915) #
Same result.
Thomas - Monday, April 18 2011 @ 12:24 AM EDT (#232917) #
Kasi, Farrell's post-game quotes seem to suggest that he called the steal, although they could be read as saying that Corey had the green light to go if he wanted. However, I was a bit surprised by Farrell saying, "We don’t want our aggressiveness to be curtailed for the fact we gambled wrong in that situation.”

In one sense, he's right, the team shouldn't deviate from a pattern of aggressive baserunning if they are having success with it because of one mistake. However, no one's suggesting that. The issue is that this was a particularly poor time to attempt a stolen base and Farrell's comments don't seem to suggest that the situation influences the team's decisions with regards to baserunning.

This is, of course, quite speculative and maybe he's saying that to protect Patterson or for another reason, but I was surprised there wasn't any mention of the fact that the stolen base wasn't the optimal strategy.
Mike Green - Monday, April 18 2011 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#232920) #
There's a world of difference between a failed hit and run down three runs late and a failed steal down five.  The object of the failed hit and run was to increase the chance that Escobar reached base with the tying run then brought to the plate.  This is arguably a defensible strategy, although personally I would be loathe to use it. 
14 April 2011; No Lind; No Hill; No Snider; No Problem | 72 comments | Create New Account
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