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Let's just not talk about that last series, how's about that?

The Red Sox come into town today for a quick two-game series and will throw a couple of Jo(h)ns at the Jays. That's good news and bad news, as the first is one of the best pitchers in baseball and the second has been one of the worst this year.



Stats courtesy of Fangraphs.

Tonight, Kyle Drabek squares off against Jon Lester, one of the top four or five pitchers in the American League. Lester has been pretty much the same pitcher this year that he was last year (a little better, actually): lots of Ks, good control, not too many hits allowed, a high ground ball percentage... classic Very Good Pitcher. He's not the type of pitcher you can wait out, hoping to run up a high pitch count; I think the Jays will have to just hope for a few juicy pitches here and there, and make sure they connect when they get one. Hey, I should be a hitting coach!

Drabek could be in for a long night. The youngster has walked almost six batters per nine innings this year, and that includes games against teams like Minnesota and Seattle (in fairness, it also includes two games against the Yankees). The Red Sox are a very patient team, featuring hitters like Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, Adrian Gonzalez and J.D. Drew, guys who rack up the walks year in and year out. I'd rather see him go up there just trying to throw strikes, and who cares if he gets hit around a little bit.

Tomorrow, we get John Lackey. I still think Lackey will turn it around and, if not return to the form of his LA Angels days, at least come close. But at the moment he is not pitching well, striking out less than five per nine, walking more than usual, giving up lots of fly balls... classic Not Very Good Pitcher. Jesse Litsch, who on the other hand has pitched very well this year by getting his Ks up to near-power pitcher levels, has the upper hand.

After a slow start, the Sox have turned things around somewhat and now sit at 17-18. However, they still aren't really hitting - they've averaged 3.9 runs per game over their last 10. The main problem has been a lack of power - Youkilis leads the team with just five home runs, while Ortiz and Gonzalez each have four. This will change.

First pitch 7:07 at the RC.
TDIB May 10: Red Sox Series Preview | 78 comments | Create New Account
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92-93 - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#234473) #
I'd really like to know where Drabek's curveball disappeared to. Coming up as a prospect his curveball was always his most touted, MLB-ready pitch, and I think he threw two of them his entire start last time. Could he be getting a little cutter heavy? Not sure that's the greatest approach, considering he leads the AL in walks.
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#234475) #
It is interesting to compare the handling of Drabek and Snider.  It is a lot easier to make the case that Drabek needs some more development time, and he is not the one getting it.  I really don't mind him learning in Toronto rather than in Las Vegas or New Hampshire, and I expect that he'll be a better pitcher come July for it, but the logic applies with much more force for Snider than for Drabek.

With a lineup that lists right, the Jays should be all right against Lester.  You can run a long-sequence offence against him with that lineup, and you are probably better off than swinging for the fences.  The hit-and-run ought to be a part of your game.



Anders - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#234486) #
With a lineup that lists right, the Jays should be all right against Lester.

Gold star.
ayjackson - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#234498) #

It is a lot easier to make the case that Drabek needs some more development time

This is true.  Of course, Snider isn't in Vegas for development, he's there to fix a mechanical error in his swing.

92-93 - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#234499) #
Sounds like the same thing to me. He's not a finished product, hence he's still developing.
ayjackson - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#234511) #

Sounds like the same thing to me.

Sounds different to me.  Oh well.

bpoz - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#234528) #
I think Cooper should sit against Lester, since he bats left handed.
scottt - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#234533) #
Rivera has still better numbers than Crawford. I get some comfort there.

scottt - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#234537) #
Patterson has amazing numbers against Lester. Go figure.
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#234538) #
Re calling the safety / suicide squeeze with Davis on 3rd, none out, and the infield in:

The Blue Jays are now officially playing idiotic baseball under Farrell.
Dez - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#234539) #
Ridiculous move. Who plays for one run against the red sox in the 4th inning?!
Alex Obal - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#234540) #
Make no mistakes and switch up my channel. I'm Buddy Rich when I fly off the handle.
ayjackson - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#234548) #

That`s as good as I`ve seen FF this year.  Not sure I can fault him on the homerun.  He hit the spot with a 95mph fastball.

And JPA looks nothing like the 4-5% walk rate guy he was coming through the minors.  He really seems to have a keen eye and a nice approach at the plate.

China fan - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 03:52 AM EDT (#234550) #

I'm glad that Anthopolous is more patient than the "get rid of David Cooper after 20 plate appearances" crowd.

The_Game - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 05:03 AM EDT (#234551) #
One HR in 30 AB doesn't mean that Cooper still isn't out of his element in the majors.
China fan - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 05:35 AM EDT (#234552) #
The guy has just turned 24 years old.  He's only had a month at AAA. He's shown decent power and much better plate discipline than the revered Brett Lawrie and Eric Thames.   His OPS at Las Vegas was higher than Lawrie or Thames.  He's only had 33 plate appearances in the majors.  Yet some peope think they have seen enough -- they are already dismissing him as a "non-prospect."  Must be nice to be so certain of one's opinions -- they should make a living as professional scouts, rather than merely sharing their opinions on Internet sites.
bpoz - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 07:58 AM EDT (#234556) #
Re: David Cooper

First...Thanks for the walk off win Mr Cooper.

I disagree with "non prospect" opinion if it exists. BUT I strongly feel he was rushed to the ML ie 1 month in LV, that was dictated by injuries so IMO the team's was forced into a move. He is playing regularly against RHP if somehow he can get 100-120 ABs more before injured, WW (walking wounded) & demoted players return, then the ML taste is a positive. So I am excusing his poor numbers to date for those reasons.

1st & DH should be occupied by Lind & EE all year, so I can see him as a Sept call up, learning by just sitting and not playing except to pinch hit and possibly spell EE against tough RHP (Felix H), which I admit is a disputable strategy. Then in 2012 he is in LV depending on the status of Lind, EE and other Jays' 1st/DH prospects.
As you delve deeper, both Cooper & McDade have to be protected on the 40 man so...Who you going to call?
92-93 - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#234559) #

As I said on Monday about Cooper - The results certainly haven't been there for David Cooper, but I've liked the way he's looked at the plate. He seems comfortable in the box and takes pitches, he just hasn't started driving the ball with authority yet. I prefer carrying his LH bat on the bench than an 8th RP or Mike McCoy. Even if David Cooper's ultimate future is as a platoon/bench player who only gets 300-450 PA a year, this team currently needs that player. Congrats on the game last night Coop.

92-93 - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#234566) #
The Blue Jays apparent plan of playing tonight's game with one bench player (Molina) is craziness. They better hope JMac & Hill don't get hurt, because that's going to force someone to play way out of position - I hope Janssen's been taking some groundballs lately.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#234567) #
Does anyone favour the long-term use of an 8-man pen? Personally, I've got enough issues with a 7 man pen because of the shortness of the bench. 
Jonny German - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#234568) #
Time for AA to pull a rabbit out of a hat and trade a reliever (or 2 if they insist on continung The Reyes Experiment) for a prospect. It's a real head-scratcher as to why he specifically built the roster to have too many relievers.


MatO - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#234570) #
Does anyone favour the long-term use of an 8-man pen? Personally, I've got enough issues with a 7 man pen because of the shortness of the bench.
You know things are getting really stupid when I start regetting the Marcum trade because he could play shortstop.
Matthew E - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#234572) #
I don't even like a six-man bullpen!
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#234573) #
Paging Troy Glaus, SS...

I don't think AA should trade decent relievers for bench help. Realistically, the Jays aren't going to contend this year. If anything, trade a reliever or two at the deadline for prospects. But it seems as though relievers (at least, Type B ones) have more value as a means of garnering sandwich picks than they do as trade chips (mmm...sandwich and chips). I would rather have another Aaron Sanchez in the system than a David Eckstein or Alex Cora.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#234574) #
The whole type B compensation thing is a racket, and (as far as I am concerned) brings the game down.  If you're carrying 8 relievers because you figure that you can get 4 or 5 of them qualified as type Bs and thereby earn a passel of draft picks without the signing club being responsible to give up anything, the distortion to the game is (to my mind) not acceptable. 
uglyone - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#234576) #
As I said on Monday about Cooper...

if we're going to self-congratulate...here's me on thursday...

Agreed that Cooper has had trouble catching up to fastballs, but I think he's shown good plate discipline and an impressive ability to fight off tough pitches so far. He hasn't taken many (any?) bad swings yet, and it doesn't seem like he's getting fooled out there. And when he was thrown a changeup last night he smoked it.

beat ya ;)
China fan - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#234577) #
I'm not aware of a metric that properly measures it (especially in a very small sample size), but I'm impressed by Cooper's ability to convert his sacrifice-fly opportunities.  It strikes me as something that a professional hitter should be able to do, yet even some veteran Jays have often failed at it.  It's only been a couple of instances so far for Cooper, and it doesn't show up very well in a conventional slash line, but to me it bodes well for his future.
rtcaino - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#234578) #

the distortion to the game is (to my mind) not acceptable. 

Agreed. And I'm sure AA wouldn't defend the rule. However, while it is there, might as well take advantage of it.

 

It should be amended in the next CBA.

China fan - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#234580) #

....Does anyone favour the long-term use of an 8-man pen?

Not in the long term, no, but in the short term I think we should admit that it has helped the bullpen and helped the starters too.   It's pretty hard to measure the advantages and disadvantages of various bench/bullpen configurations, but Farrell doesn't seem to use the bench often enough in late-inning situations to make it critical to have a bigger bench and smaller bullpen.  And with the starters unable to pitch 7 or 8 innings consistently, the 8-man bullpen has been a big advantage, in my view.

 

Chuck - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#234585) #
I think the 8-man pen is ridiculous. I believe this particular pen is that big not by a grander design necessarily, but specifically because of who those 8 guys are. If AA could somehow take a mulligan on the Dotel signing, say, I don't think we'd be looking at the remaining 7 guys plus someone new from Las Vegas. I think the pen would be just those 7 guys.

Is June 15 the date when free agent signings can be traded without their permission? That would mean Dotel and/or Rauch could be moved... if the booty of a type B compensation pick is willingly foregone.

The idea of 3-man bench is barely workable when everyone is healthy. When that bench is meant to absorb players with day-to-day injuries we get, well, what we're looking at now. Jose Molina. And if he's down in the bullpen warming up a relief pitcher, then Farrell will see absolutely nobody at the end of his bench. He'll just hear the sound of crickets.
pooks137 - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#234587) #
During the game last night they showed that the Jays were leading the league in bullpen innings pitched by a fair margin this year even before last night's extra-inning win.  The bullpen has been used heavily over the last three short outings from Romero, Morrow and again tonight with Drabek, with potential for more trouble again tonight if LItsch isn't fooling the Sox hitters.

I can see the argument that someone like Janssen should be sent down for a utility player like Woodward tonight, but the 8 arms in the pen are definitely getting used and are needed at present.

Off-day day Thurs will allow some rest for tired arms and some shuffling of rosters once injuries become more clear.

Until any starters can consistently be counted on for 7 innings, it looks like this is the new norm with the short bench.

Villanueva looks like the only guy Farrell trusts to go multiple innings, but he's been getting used a lot this week.
Cito was using Camp for multiple innings a lot last year, but his performance of late doesn't really inspire trust to expose him like that right now.
Even R-zep looked a lot more human when he was left in for a 2nd inning last night.
Its too bad that the bullpen is so good, but composed of so many one-inning guys.
pooks137 - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#234589) #
Is June 15 the date when free agent signings can be traded without their permission? That would mean Dotel and/or Rauch could be moved... if the booty of a type B compensation pick is willingly foregone.

I think AA must be hoping to gain something in return for Dotel in a trade before the deadline at this point.  His option for next year is certainly going to be turned down and based on his performance so far, it would be a risk to offer him arbitration at potentially >3 mil for 2012 since he is very likely to accept.

Rauch on the other hand has pitched well enough that a Type B pick would likely be feasible similar to Kevin Gregg last year and wouldn't be the end of the world is he did accept the offer.
ayjackson - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#234590) #
I think it's an illusion that the bullpen is full of one inning guys.  Villanueva, Camp,Janssen and Rzep definitely have multi-inning capability.  Even Rauch has been a multi-inning guy in the not so distant past. 
Matthew E - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#234591) #
This is my ideal 25-man roster, not taking available personnel into account.

C
C
1B
2B
SS
3B
1B-3B
2B-SS
IF-C
LF
CF
RF
OF
OF
1B-DH
SP1
SP2
SP3
SP4
SP5-LRP
LRP
MRP
MRP
SU-CL
CL

I honestly don't see why this wouldn't work in today's game.

Chuck - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#234592) #

the Jays were leading the league in bullpen innings pitched

Could part of the rationale for this be (a) Farrell has 8 arms to use and (b) they are all good (Dotel's struggles notwithstanding)?

Anders - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#234593) #
I'm not aware of a metric that properly measures it (especially in a very small sample size), but I'm impressed by Cooper's ability to convert his sacrifice-fly opportunities.  It strikes me as something that a professional hitter should be able to do, yet even some veteran Jays have often failed at it.  It's only been a couple of instances so far for Cooper, and it doesn't show up very well in a conventional slash line, but to me it bodes well for his future.

Well given that most of Cooper's hits have been weak fly balls...

Alternatively:

Boding less well for his future: his .257/.334/.416 line in 1100 AA PA.
Jonny German - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#234595) #
That's an interesting idea, using a starter as a LOOGY. Could work especially well for a team with multiple lefties in the rotation.

Here's another "out-there" usage which I think is legal but I'm not positive: The opposing team has 3-4-5 coming up and they bat L-R-L. Bring in the LOOGY to face #3, then bring in a ROOGY. Rather than going out of the game the LOOGY goes to right field and one of your corner outfielders leaves the game. ROOGY gets #4, the LOOGY comes back to the mound to face #5.

Feasible?
China fan - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#234596) #

.....given that most of Cooper's hits have been weak fly balls....

Most of EVERYONE's hits are outs.  Unless you know of a hitter with an average above .500.

As for his AA numbers:  lumping together the first AA year with the second AA year is about as relevant as lumping together Arencibia's two years in AAA.  A lot of hitters need a year to adjust to a league.   You're not saying that we should assess JPA on the basis of his first year in AAA, right?  Or even on the basis of a combination of those two years?   Cooper was a helluva lot better in the second half of last year (at the age of 23) than he was in the previous year.  It means something.

 

ayjackson - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#234597) #

Just filling out ME's ideal roster for giggles.....

C - JPA
C - Jose Molina
1B - Adam Lind
2B - Aaron Hill
SS - Junel Escobar
3B - Brett Lawrie
1B-3B - Edwin Encarnacion
2B-SS - Mike McCoy
IF-C - John McDonald
LF - Travis Snider
CF - Rajai Davis
RF - Jose Bautista
OF - Corey Patterson
OF - Scott Podsednick
1B-DH - David Cooper

That seems like overkill on the bench.  I imagine that if we didn't have an eight man pen right now we'd all be complaining about how overworked the bullpen is.

Kasi - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#234598) #
That is way too many bench bats. No need for that much stuff. Here should be your bench:

1. Backup catcher
2. Backup OF
3. Backup IF
4. Backup at several positions with speed

Preferably between 2-4 you have a batter from each side of the plate. There is no need for more than this. Heck arguably you can get bye with 3.
Matthew E - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#234600) #
Well, one interesting thing about it is that if you tried a roster like that now, you'd be able to do all kinds of pinch-hitting and substitutions and stuff to counteract the opposing manager's habit of changing relievers twice an inning.

It's not so much that you need that many bats on the bench. It's, imagine what you could do with that many bats on the bench. You'd need to trust your individual relievers more than most managers tend to, of course, and you wouldn't want any one-out guys taking up space. But that's okay.

ayjackson - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#234601) #

Here's another "out-there" usage which I think is legal but I'm not positive: The opposing team has 3-4-5 coming up and they bat L-R-L. Bring in the LOOGY to face #3, then bring in a ROOGY. Rather than going out of the game the LOOGY goes to right field and one of your corner outfielders leaves the game. ROOGY gets #4, the LOOGY comes back to the mound to face #5.

Didn't TLR try this a couple of years ago?

uglyone - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#234602) #
My ideal roster size, makeup and usage philosophy is best described as: "Do whatever Joe Maddon does"
James W - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#234603) #
http://www.wezen-ball.com/2010-articles/august/pitchers-playing-the-field.html

Assuming it hasn't happened since the summer of 2010, Bobby Cox did it in 2008. I've read other stories about La Russa doing it, among others.
Kasi - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#234604) #
There is a reason pinch hitters are pinch hitters. They're not good enough for every day play. Now sure you could have several platoon positions with a lefty and righty depending on matchups, but I think it has been shown pretty well that players do better when given consistent playing time. Also pinch hitters do worse then they do when they're in the starting lineup.

There is a reason benches have shrunk over the years. Because having flexibility in your bullpen is more important than having it on your bench.

Fangraphs had a good article about it:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/platoons-and-bullpens/
Matthew E - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#234606) #
Kasi: that's an interesting article, but you seem a lot more sure of its conclusions than the article itself was.
Anders - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#234607) #

Most of EVERYONE's hits are outs.  Unless you know of a hitter with an average above .500.

Your attempts to distort everyone else's efforts to make well reasoned points with very transparent and fallacious reasoning is becoming increasingly tiresome. Cooper has hit 4 ground balls, 2 line drives, 19 fly balls, and 5 infield flies. I have seen about half of Cooper's at bats so far. Objectively, he is hitting the ball in the air, and not on a line, a lot. Subjectively, a lot of those balls in the air are not going very far. From Fangraphs: "A line drive produces 1.26 runs/out, while fly balls produce .13 R/O and groundballs produce .05 R/O. In other words, batters want to hit lots of line drives and fly balls, while pitchers want to make batters hit groundballs." Sample size issues abound, but my original comment was about how he is hitting lots of weak fly balls so far.

As for his AA numbers:  lumping together the first AA year with the second AA year is about as relevant as lumping together Arencibia's two years in AAA.  A lot of hitters need a year to adjust to a league.   You're not saying that we should assess JPA on the basis of his first year in AAA, right?  Or even on the basis of a combination of those two years?   Cooper was a helluva lot better in the second half of last year (at the age of 23) than he was in the previous year.  It means something.

I reject the premise of your comment. His old numbers don't count any less, and it would be foolish to ignore them. Minor League Splits is offline, so I don't have the exact division of his numbers, but the larger sample size is always more statistically relevant. Cooper having an OPS of .767 in his second full year of AA would be alright if he were a shortstop. He didn't make our top 30 prospect list, let alone the top 10. Clearly we aren't infallible, but only 2 of the 7 of us even thought he was a top-30 player.) He doesn't hit for power and walks an average amount. That's not a major league first baseman.

Cooper AA 1: .258/.340/.389
Cooper AA 2: .257/.327/.442

I hope I'm wrong, I hope Cooper becomes an All Star, I really do. I have nothing against him personally. Just, he's not a major league player at the moment, and to pretend otherwise is just wishful thinking.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#234608) #
Kasi,

You have not understood the research correctly.  There is a "pinch-hitting penalty" of just under 10%.  Let's imagine that you have a platoon L/R with the left-handed hitter having an expected wOBA of .300 against LHPs and .350 against RHPs while the right-handed hitter has an expected wOBA of .340 against LHPs and .310 against RHPs (RHHs normally have smaller platoon splits).  The opponent starts with a RH starter and you have the left-handed half of the platoon.  The opponent brings in a LOOGY, and you counter with the RH half of your platoon.  Your RH hitter gets a pinch-hitting penalty but is still a somewhat better hitter than your LH hitter.  If the LOOGY has an extreme split, your RH hitter would be considerably better. 

There is no research that I am aware of that indicates that a platoon cannot be effective over the long haul.  And if you have players with a diverse set of skills on your bench, they can be used for a number of purposes other than pinch-hitting.

uglyone - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#234609) #
for the record, Cooper has been smashing the ball around in the minors since about halfway through last year. too bad we no longer have access to historical minor league splits but Cooper was an .850-.900ops guy in the 2nd half last year, and smashed the ball around to open this year in AAA as well.

not saying that he's necessarily MLB ready, but he has been hitting well for a little while now.
Kasi - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#234610) #
That's not the only article or chat I've read about the subject. Just the only one I was able to find in under a couple minutes here at work. But the gist of it remains. Platooning relievers is a better strategy than platooning your hitters. Yes you could bring in the opposite side hitter. But now you can't likely do it again the same later in the game so he'll be susceptible to the next matchup that comes along. Now sure if you're facing Dotel that works great. Most pitchers don't have anything close to that split. So yes I do understand the numbers.

I do think there is a positive bonus to every day play. Not sure if there has been any research done to support that however. I have read a lot of Cameron's chats where he has talked about the subject in response to readers, and I think the general premise of roster construction is that it is better to pay money for players who will be in your lineup every day.

Basically having a big bench and pinch hitting a lot to exploit reliever matchups just doesn't have much benefit. Now if you could get a couple really good pinch hitters that would be great. But they are few and far between since most hitters just don't do well with it.
China fan - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#234611) #

....Your attempts to distort everyone else's efforts....

Don't be ridiculous.  You made a vague and cryptic comment about Cooper's "lazy fly balls."  You made no attempt to substantiate it.  I responded with a comment which was about as flippant as yours.  Now you've finally responded with a detailed comment which attempts to substantiate your point.   Good for you.  You're contributing evidence to the discussion now.  But don't call me "tiresome" for responding to your dismissive and flippant one-liner with a comment in the same vein. 

uglyone - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#234612) #
Here are some splits from a minor league thread where I kept updates on last year...or to be more accurate, these are his season totals at each date interval (note: these were weekly updates hence the odd dates for the monthly intervals):

David Cooper OPS:

APR 25: .620
MAY 31: .672
JUN 28: .678
JUL 27: .743
AUG 30: .769 (final)
China fan - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#234613) #

....That's not a major league first baseman....

I never said he was.  If you check this thread, I was responding primarily to the suggestion (not yours) that Cooper is a "non-prospect."   If you're implying that I suggested that Cooper is currently worthy of a full-time major-league job, you are distorting what I said.   Please try not to distort what I say -- especially if you want to attack me for "distorting" what you said.

 

Jonny German - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#234617) #
Suggesting that Anders implied that you suggested Cooper is worthy of a full-time major-league job is a prime example of what tiresome is all about.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#234619) #
Incidentally, Kasi, while there is indeed an argument that platooning relievers is more effective than platooning position players, the argument has little applicability to a bullpen with 7 right-handers and 1 left-hander.
pooks137 - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#234620) #
To Anders and uglyone, minorleaguesplits.com data seems to have been resurrected in some form at http://mlsplits.drivelinebaseball.com/

I haven't had time to peruse the site at all, but it may prove helpful to the discussion.  Cheers!

pooks137 - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#234621) #
Hmm, that hyperlink didn't work but the http address seems to be correct.
hypobole - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#234622) #
IIRC, around the mid-point of last year, Cooper went over some video from his Cal days and made adjustments to get back to the swing he had success with in college.
As far as our relievers are concerned, it's usually pitchers that have attrition issues, rather than hitters. Having an overabundance of MLB quality RP's is a bit unusual, but with the struggles of our starters to work deep into games, we may have seen an injury or 2 in our relief corps if we were working with a shorter pen.
robertdudek - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#234636) #
Cooper was ranked #21 on Baseball America's list of top 30 Blue Jays prospects (an B.A. focuses more on tools than performance). He does not have much defensive value and doesn't appear to be viable with the bat as a first baseman. He is virtually the definition of organizational filler.
scottt - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#234639) #
I doubt Cooper would be under .200 for a full season. He might not be the greatest bat at his position, but he was drafted for his hitting and nothing else. Also, Cooper led the Jays system in hard hit balls in the first half of last  year, so the weak flyballs might just be a small sample anomaly.

Baseball America said back when he was drafted: "Cooper's hitting ability stems from strong hands and forearms and excellent hand-eye coordination more than pure bat speed, and some scouts believe he'll be more susceptible in pro ball to big velocity because of it. Others believe his smooth, pure swing will let him catch up to any fastball. He has a polished, patient approach and absolutely mashes mistakes to all parts of the park. Cooper's value is in his bat"


scottt - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#234640) #
I see Escobar is in the lineup today. Patterson is in left and Encarnation is on the bench.

Lackey's splits says 74  AB vs left and 65 vs right. I find that surprising. How many teams fields 5 left bats?

TamRa - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#234642) #
for the record, Cooper has been smashing the ball around in the minors since about halfway through last year. too bad we no longer have access to historical minor league splits but Cooper was an .850-.900ops guy in the 2nd half last year, and smashed the ball around to open this year in AAA as well.

not saying that he's necessarily MLB ready, but he has been hitting well for a little while now.


By coincidence i based my whole comment on Cooper in my prospect reviews on that very split. Here's the numbers you are thinking of:

On July 1, one could have made a very good case for just closing the Cooper file and stamping the outside "Bust" and moving on. Sure, it would have been too early given that, at that point, he only had a little over 2 seasons worth of at-bats, but all of those at bats which had occurred above A-ball were most uninspiring. His slash lines, in 751 AA at bats was a most modest .242/.335/.390/.725 with no hint of better work to come. His impressive half season in 2008 noted but perhaps dismissed as an aberration.

Since then, things have changed. In 220 at bats since that mid-season date, those slash lines are .309/.387/.505/.892 and while one has to be aware of sample size considerations, if Cooper has made some sort of mechanical adjustment to produce this result then there's cause for optimism in those numbers. Watch for stories over the winter that might explain the sudden turnaround, and perhaps more telling, watch whether his spring training work convinces the Jays he's ready for AAA.


According to recent reporting, he did in fact revise his mechanics last May.

Not pimping the guy, i figures he's one of those "fringe of the majors" sort of guys kinda like Dan Johnson or what Casey Kochman turned out to be.

But there IS a case to be made that that long stretch of poor AA work is the anomoly and not the other way round.

Mike Green - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#234643) #
Seeing Rivera as the cleanup hitter against Lackey is a bit jarring. If you had someone like Thames on the roster instead of an 8th reliever, you could bat him 6th or 7th and it would be an improvement.
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#234644) #
Excellent 1.1 innings from Janssen. Great job keeping Crawford close and staying focused on the hitters. Nice throw from Arencibia; even better tag by Escobar.
Kasi - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#234647) #
Oh I certainly agree with that Mike. I was talking about team building philosophy in general.  While there are some pitchers with strong reverse splits, it is usually fairly rare. I think every bullpen should have 2 lefties in it. Then again we did start this year with 3 lefties in our rotation. But for team comp I prefer a balanced 7 man bullpen and a bench with one supersub. Someone like a Matt Stairs or such. Especially if the guy has a proven ability to pinch hit well. (or at least knows how to hit a sac fly reliably)

I wish Purcey had worked out better since he should have been an asset for us. The biggest criticism I have against the Jays is the handling of the bullpen, especially Dotel. Why Farrell keeps putting him out there against lefties is beyond me.

zeppelinkm - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#234664) #
Agreed Greenfrog. They deserved to get Crawford there. Jannsen did a great job of keeping him close. Pretty sure he got him with one of his pickoff attempts, but they didn't show enough replays for me to be certain. But karma took care of that anyways.

Love the strike-him-out-throw-him-out double play.

And I said it a couple weeks ago when Patterson didn't score on a wild-ish pitch because he didn't take any sort of secondary lead off from third, and it has been repeated a lot on here with increasing frequency, but Patterson - hands down - has the worst base running instincts i've ever seen. Literally. Any benefit he can gain from his speed is more then negated by the fact that he really doesn't have a clue out there. Some of the mistakes he makes are pee-wee level bad. Things a good 12 year good ball player wouldn't do.  That Bautista "single" last night confirmed it.

He can go. I do believe that every player can contribute something. But for all intents and purposes, he's a bad bench player. Gimme some version of Reed Johnson anyday.
Chuck - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#234665) #

he really doesn't have a clue out there

Patterson has almost certainly left in his wake no shortage of frustrated scouts, coaches and managers. He has raw skills aplenty. He can run like the wind and he can turn on a pitch and hit with power. But he takes very strange routes to catch flyballs, he runs the bases like he's a mouse in a maze and he swings at pitches from his ankles to his shoulders. So all this raw ability far too often goes for nought. When he succeeds, he looks like a natural and you wonder why he isn't a star. When he doesn't succeed, you see that he is clearly not in possession of a baseball brain. He seems to have no instincts for the game at all.

Anders - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#234675) #
Lo, rejoice ye all

""I think you're still looking at a two-man position, but I think what has clearly happened is J.P.'s advancement and his progression has pointed us in the direction where there's going to be more at-bats and more games caught," manager John Farrell said before Wednesday night's game against Boston. "

From the Gregor's notes column.

92-93 - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#234679) #
Wait - how are our young pitchers going to develop now?!
mathesond - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#234681) #
"Wait - how are our young pitchers going to develop now?!"

Vegas, baby. Vegas.
Mike Green - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#234690) #
It's spring.  The groundskeeper will be instructed to keep the mound well watered, and a little bit of peat moss and organic manure added to the dirt.  Jo-Jo will be 6'6" by July. 
92-93 - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#234691) #
Great, so he's going to have an even harder time keeping the ball down in the zone.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#234693) #
On the plus side, it will make it easier for Rauch to dunk the baseball.
rpriske - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#234694) #

Going back to last season, the Jays have now gone undefeated in their last 9 Friday games. Looks good goign into Minnesota! No way a stat lack that could be random chance! Right?

 

Right?

MatO - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#234696) #

""I think you're still looking at a two-man position, but I think what has clearly happened is J.P.'s advancement and his progression has pointed us in the direction where there's going to be more at-bats and more games caught," manager John Farrell said before Wednesday night's game against Boston. "

This wouldn't be a knee-jerk reaction to Molina trying to "block" that 3rd strike in the dirt from Morrow the other day?  The "wild pitch" that started that disastrous inning. That sort of reaction would be out of character wouldn't it?

uglyone - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#234698) #
I think JPA has done nothing but impress behind the plate, especially in terms of framing pitches and hacing good instincts as to when his pitcher needs a break or some encouragement, and he's also shown a good arm and very good athleticism on plays at home plate - and of course, the pitchers seem perfectly comfortable with him back there as well.

Farrell had every reason to ease JPA into the full time role, and had every reason to worry about him maybe not being able to handle the young pitching staff, but so far he's come through with flying colours IMO, and a promotion to more of a full time role is well deserved.

I'm not sure if that failed block by Molina had too much to do with it - that's not the first time he's failed to make an easy block this year. The fact that Molina is just "good" defensively instead of "super-awesome" defensively probably does play a factor in JPA getting promoted like this, though.
Mike Green - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#234699) #
Arencibia has a career BABIP of .225 despite not popping up very often and hitting quite a few balls high up off the wall.  He is a career 4-34 on ground balls (with a BABIP of .118) and also has a career BABIP of .119 on fly balls.  Both numbers are very low. 

He appears to have taken a big step forward at age 25 with regard to his plate discipline.  If he can hit .250 (i.e. run out a BABIP of .280 or so), he'll be a very find well-rounded offensive player.  I am very happy to have been entirely wrong about his reasonable offensive upside. 

92-93 - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#234700) #
John Buck 2010 .281/.314/.489, .345wOBA 3.7BB% 27.1K% .208ISO .335BABIP
JP Arencibia 2011 .229/.302/.469 .335wOBA 9.4BB% 25.0K% .240ISO .254BABIP

It's pretty incredible that Arencibia has been equal (better?) thus far to a season that netted Buck a 3/18 deal.
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