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And what have we learned?

I see there was a big discussion here about the Blue Jays last week. I understand y'all were deciding which guys to get rid of. David Cooper was one of the suggested candidates for riddance, and indeed, young Cooper has been returned to AAA. This will clear a spot for Jayson Nix, a unique player who combines the defensive wizardry of Encarnacion with the offensive stylings of Johnny Mac. But before he left, young Cooper did manage to key the beginning of what is now a five game winning streak.

I also recall that it was suggested Corey Patterson would make  a fine fifth outfielder. If that's true, it's very bad news for Patterson. Does anyone in the AL actually carry a fifth outfielder? Hell, the Angels don't even carry a fourth outfielder. When Mike Scioscia wants to give one of his regulars a day off, he has his DH grab a glove.Boston does it different - they actually do have five outfielders, with Cameron and McDonald supporting the three LH starters, and just one extra infielder. The Tigers spent some time trying to get by without a backup catcher, seeing as how that's the position their DH plays. But those are the exceptions - the normal bench configuration in the AL these days is generally a catcher, a middle infielder, a corner infielder, and an outfielder.

I've decided I have a new favourite player. (Jose is not a mere player, he is Divine Intervention.) It's Casey Janssen. I just find him fun to watch. It's the way he prances around the mound, as light on his feet as a dancer. So I hope he keeps pitching well....

Elsewhere - does anyone else think we just might have overestimated the impact of all the money the Red Sox spent this winter? Carl Crawford will certainly play better than he has so far - he should at least turn out to be as productive as, oh, Jacoby Ellsbury - nevertheless, I still persist in believing Crawford is one of the most overrated players in the majors. (Yes, I did once say I was "insanely enraptured" over Crawford's future. I've gotten over it.) Adrian Gonzalez is a certifiably great player, of course, and he's playing like one. But the guy he's effectively replacing, Adrian Beltre, was a great player for the Red Sox himself. The little more Gonzalez gives them with the bat over Beltre is pretty much erased by the difference between having Youkilis playing third base rather than Beltre. The Red Sox real upgrades this season will prove to be the return to health of Beckett, Ellsbury, and Pedroia.

The Yankees are being reminded that time really can tear down a building, destroy a woman's face, and it sure won't wait for thee. The Jorge Posada show attracted a lot of attention this weekend. While it's possible that Posada simply has fallen completely off the cliff, he was still a reasonably productive bat just last season. For the moment, I think it's still possible  that he's just having a devil of a time adjusting to the switch from catcher to DH. A catcher is involved in the game, and many catchers have had trouble when that part of the game is taken away from them. (Joe Torre once recalled how when he started playing in the infield his mind used to wander - "I had to kick myself to pay attention.") Posada doesn't even have that anymore, he's just sitting there thinking about his at bats.

On the other hand, he is 39 years old.

Posada's even older than the Yankees shortstop. I rather blithely assumed that Derek Jeter's struggles in 2010 were largely a matter of the god of BABIP giving Derek the back of her hand, and expected to see things return to something a little more like normal this season. Through 2009, Jeter had hit .360 on his balls in play. In 2010, it plunged to .307, and I thought he was suffering the Aaron Hill Experience, that it was random and unlikely to happen again. But this year it stands at .287, and it's beginning to look more like a symptom of Advancing Decrepitude.. He's still one of the greatest 37 year old shortstops in major league history, of course. But that's a little like being the tallest jockey... Alex Rodriguez, who will be 36 in a couple of months, is still a very productive player. But he's no longer a Mighty Force, and the Yankees will be paying him something like $24 million dollars every year until he's 42 years old. This is unlikely to end well, either.

And C.C. Sabathia still weighs about 300 pounds...

And then there was Tampa, doing their damndest to prove that baseball really might be 75% pitching. No Carl Crawford? No Carlos Pena? No problem. Matt Joyce is, and will continue to be, better than either of those guys anyway. Casey Kotchman may prove to be their latest reclamation project made good, in the tradition of Pena himself. B.J. Upton, as unpredictable a talent as there is in the game, so far seems to be having one of his good seasons. And Joe Maddon is demonstrating that it is indeed always possible to cobble together a working bullpen, and any team that can't manage this fairly elementary feat should be ashamed of themselves.

Anyway, one last thing.  I implore you, I beseech you, to always remember this: baseball was designed, not to break our hearts, but to teach us lessons in humility. In baseball, you don't know nothing. And whenever you lose sight of that, the game wastes no time reminding you.
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AWeb - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#234907) #

Despite having a similar record to most of them (.500, give or take), this Jays team is the first I can recall recently that has massive holes at several spots - 3B, 2B, LF, CF (I refuse to count Patterson as a solution, maybe Davis can get his average up), and 1B without Lind. The Jays have typically had good players everywhere, lacking the upper end performance. Now they have a team that can massively improve just by getting league average performances out of a few guys - hopefully Hill, Snider, Davis and someone at 3B. I find this encouraging, because the team is actually set up to improve. It helps having the best hitter in baseball too, of course.

I'll eat crow on Lind - it looks like he's back to being a solid hitter again, hopefully to be maintained post-injury.

And Bautista gets his own thread...as he should - not sure how many players have 32 game stretches with an OPS over 1.350, but I'm thinking it's a pretty small group, because even for a small sample size, it's pretty damn hard.

ayjackson - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#234908) #
Again with this myth that Nix is a poor defender.  He may be.  I haven't seen it; the only scouting report I've seen on it was very encouraging; and the UZR stats are inconclusive at worst.  Are people making this assertion based on something they've heard or read, or is it based on the three errors he's made as a Jay?
Magpie - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#234909) #
this myth that Nix is a poor defender.

He's a decent enough second baseman. It's when he tries to play third base that his troubles begin, and they didn't begin this year. He really does make errors at third base more frequently than Encarnacion. Jeff Kent was the same (fine at second, lousy at third).
Mike Green - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#234910) #
Was it just me, or did Delmon Young look totally lost out in left-field this weekend? With Mauer out of the lineup, Morneau a shadow of his former self, Hardy and Hudson gone, this Twins club looks pretty damn awful. 

I liked Bautista's response to the "protection in the absence of Lind" issue.  What I do is on me...A couple of other notes from the weekend series. The radar gun at Target was showing Romero at 97 sometimes.  Is the gun "hot", or is it real (Ricky getting stronger, mechanical adjustments....).  I have also developed a full appreciation for Romero's defensive abilities this year.  He snares and pounces as well as anybody. 

85bluejay - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#234912) #

The American league has several good teams but so far no great teams, so the division and wild card races are going to be interesting. Given the poor starting pitching and putrid offensive holes in the Jays lineup, I'm surprised and happy where the team is - the rotation has a good chance to improve (esp. Morrow/Cecil) and on the farm we have Snider/Lawrie/Thames and even Cooper which gives us a good chance to improve the team - If the div. remains close then I think it shortens the leash on the like of Jo-Jo Reyes/Rivera/EE  and we may promote the youngster soon after super 2.

While I expect the Red Sox to go on a run, If the Jays are still hanging around come June one small investment the team can make without sacrificing the future is trying to acquire Carlos Beltran as protection for Jose - given Beltran's Salary/Health and no arbit. contract (no draft choices) the Mets are likely seeking salary relief and maybe a c prospect - how about Jo-Jo Reyes ( the mets can give him a longer audition in the rotation)/Mastroianni(a JP guy and more useful in NL) and Rivera(in lieu of the mets sending us cash) for Beltran - he can play LF/RF/DH and no commitment for next year and provides veteran protection for Jose.

I still in the "it's a development year for now" camp  and with so many teams likely to be in contention at least for the wild card it should be a sellers market come July.

bpoz - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#234915) #
Absolutely wonderful write up Magpie!!! Thanks.

I really appreciated Ronertdudek's article as well. It served 2 needs for me 1)Hearing that other Bauxites are also feeling the pain. 2) Like always taking the sure out and easy Rbi, the multiple opportunities for me to say silly things is a boon.

Thanks for reminding some that in baseball we know nothing, but I contribute to & read this site everyday. So when ever I disagree with someone then it is either him or me that knows nothing, sometimes both.
One question if I may, the 9-3 win on Saturday, counts as a close game because it was extra innings...correct.
Hodgie - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#234918) #
Boston is going to be interesting going forward and I agree with Magpie that the fortunes of the team will probably be tied to the likes of Beckett, Pedroia and Ellsbury. At the quarter pole, fWAR suggests that not only has the difference between Gonzalez and Beltre been negligible, but that Crawford has some serious ground to make up on Victor Martinez.
greenfrog - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#234922) #
Janssen is fast becoming one of my favourite players too. Not too many guys are able to come back from shoulder surgery and remain effective. In Janssen's case, his effectiveness is all the more impressive, because he never had lights-out stuff in the first place. But he makes the most of it with his competitiveness, very good control, a great pickoff move, and his athleticism on the mound. To my recollection, he's never complained about sometimes being on the bubble and getting demoted. Plus, he has that old-school, drop-and-drive pitching motion, which is interesting to watch.
Rich - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#234926) #
I agree the Target Field radar gun seems too fast.  Romero at 96-97 and Janssen at 93?  I find those a bit hard to believe, especially on cool, wet days.  Will be interesting to compare for their next few outings.  I missed Sunday's game - how high did they have Morrow?
adrianveidt - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#234928) #
I'd like to repeat the question I asked in another thread. Why do any teams pitch to Bautista? It makes no sense at all. Getting him to consume 2 outs per game while he produces 4 runs is not efficient given the lack of hitting around him right now.
Mike Green - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#234934) #
For fun, I was thinking about the players currently in the organization who I thought had a decent chance to be contributing to the 2013 Blue Jays.  It's a pretty good list:

OF- Snider, Thames, Gose, Marisnick, Sierra and Bautista
3B- Lawrie
SS- Escobar, Hechevarria
2B- Hill
1B- Lind, McDade
C- Arencibia, d'Arnaud, Jimenez

P- Romero, Litsch, Morrow, Drabek, Rzepczynski, Cecil, Stewart, McGuire, Janssen, Wojciechowski, Jenkins, Alvarez

You could quibble about Marisnick (I expect him to start 2012 in double A, and it wouldn't shock me at all if he was ready by mid-2013 in the event that Gose needs more time).  It is fun to see no real gaping holes, but rather places where more depth would be desirable.

Lylemcr - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#234937) #

No love for Nix here.  His potential is an average 3b defensively and John Mac offensively.  E5 may be suffering to watch, but he has potential.  He could be a 30HR guy if his head gets screwed on straight.  This is an experiment worth having.

Nix should stay in AAA as a backup plan (in case someone gets hurt).  He is not part of the future, and is not event part of the now.  The E5 haters should just grin their teeth and encourage him to do well.

ayjackson - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#234940) #

It's when he tries to play third base that his troubles begin, and they didn't begin this year. He really does make errors at third base more frequently than Encarnacion. Jeff Kent was the same (fine at second, lousy at third).

Your talking about 50 games though, in the majors (7 prevsious to that in his minor league career).  Clearly not Encarnacion territory.  So I'd say it remains to be seen whether he can be a decent defensive third baseman. 

Richard S.S. - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#234941) #

At this point in the season, this division is still up for grabs, as is the wild card.   I just don't see us going to only 7 relievers any time soon.

In 8 losses by 3 runs or more, the bullpen pitched 34.0 innings (4.25 per start).

In 12 losses by less than 3 runs, the bullpen pitched 31.2 innings (2.64 per start).

In 7 wins by 3 runs or more, the bullpen pitched 19.2 innings (2.81 per start).  

In 13 wins by less than 3 runs, the bullpen pitched 38.1 innings (2.95 per start).

Ricky Romero, in 8 starts has pitched 51.0 innings (6.38 per start).

Kyle Drabek, in 8 starts has pitched 43.0 innings (5.38 per start).

Jesse Litsch, in 7 starts has pitched 41.1 innings (5.90 per start).

Jo-Jo Reyes, in 8 starts has pitched 41.2 innings (5.21 per start).

Brandon Morrow, in 5 starts has pitched 26.0 innings (5.20 per start).

Brett Cecil, in 4 starts has pitched 21.0 innings (5.25 per start).

Until our pitchers can pitch deeper into games (for whatever reason), injuries will play a key part in how well this team plays.   If Adam Lind cannot play tonight he should be retroactively placed on the D.L. so we can get someone else up here.   Unfortunately, Travis Snider still hasn't figured out what's wrong (he might not think anything's wrong), until he does, he stays down.   Until Brett Lawrie plays 80 - 100 games at 3rd base, I don't bring him up.   Eric Thames could be the next call-up.   After all, we just might be competing this year, rather than a straight rebuild.

ayjackson - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#234942) #

I agree the Target Field radar gun seems too fast.  Romero at 96-97 and Janssen at 93?

Romero topped out at 95.2mph on Friday, according to Pitch f/x data at Brooks Baseball.  Janssen topped out at 92.3 mph.  Janssen averages 91.5mph on his fastball so it isn't surprising he hits 93-94 from time to time.  It's possible that the gun this weekend (be it a Rogers gun or Target Field gun) was reading 1-2mph high.

uglyone - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#234944) #
I'd stick with Nix until he showed clearly that his current .373woba was pure fluke. That is an impressive number that I'd like to give a chance to. I'd also like to keep him around fighting for playing time with Hill at 2B once we call up Lawrie.

As for the "holes" in our current lineup, it's encouraging that many of them may potentially be filled by our top prospects in AAA - LF Snider/Thames, 3B Lawrie, DH Thames/Cooper.

As much criticism as he recieves, an interesting thing about our "5th OF" Corey Patterson so far.....his rank amongst AL Left Fielders:

1) TEX J.Hamilton: .871ops, .378woba
2) KC A.Gordon: .817ops, .362woba
3) CLE M.Brantley: .784ops, .349woba
4) TOR C.Patterson: .758ops, .328woba
5) BAL L.Scott: .751ops, .323woba
6) OAK J.Willingham: .717ops, .320woba
7) NYY B.Gardner: .731ops, .316woba
8) SEA M.Bradley: .669ops, .309woba
9) TAM S.Fuld: .644ops, .291woba
10) DET R.Raburn: .622ops, .276woba
11) CHX J.Pierre: .582ops, .257woba
12) BOS C.Crawford: .528ops, .236woba
13) LAA V.Wells: .527ops, .233woba
14) MIN D.Young: .496ops, .229woba

At the very least, he's giving us a quality temporary fill-in until Snider/Thames are ready.
Anders - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#234946) #
Patterson has been decent, especially lately. His defense is so-so and his baserunning poor, but on the whole, he hasn't been the team's problem, and I think has probably been a plus.

The ~380 plate appearances of under .600 OPS from EE, Hill, Davis and Cooper, that is what's sunk the Jays so far, along with injuries

greenfrog - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#234950) #
The Jays are fortunate in that over the next four games (against Det and TB), they're going to miss Verlander, Price and Shields. On the down side, they're going to have to contend with Scherzer, Porcello, Hellickson, and Davis - a pretty good quartet of starters.
Ishai - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#234953) #
Patterson has been good/very good offensively. I just hate watching him play defense and run the bases. Selfishly, I'd much rather have Thames getting a chance in the OF.
lexomatic - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#234954) #
Richard S.S.
Your list is interesting, but it's a chicken/egg scenario. Is Farrell pulling guys sooner because he has so many relievers available, or is he keeping the relievers around because he doesn't trust the ability of the pitchers/there is a plan in place to limit innings.
I think the plan to limit innings makes the most sense if it's option 2 (Drabek's first season, babying Morrow a bit because of his injury). Reyes, Litsch and Cecil though support the first possibility
I do hate having 8 relievers though.

Mike Green - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#234955) #
Thames' arrival would not necessitate the replacement of Patterson.  Thames and Encarnacion could platoon at DH with Rivera sent packing.  Encarnacion backs up Lind and Nix.  Thames is your 4th outfielder (with Patterson moving to center when you want to give Davis a rest).  Encarnacion is an effective platoon DH, and appeared to me to be a decent back-up for Lind (if not for Nix).
Jonny German - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#234956) #
Mike, I'm surprised that your scenario supposes an extended stay at Vegas for Snider. Surely you're not in favour of that? If Snider is recalled shortly would you still bring up Thames?
Magpie - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#234957) #
Your talking about 50 games though, in the majors

It's 81 games actually (71 starts), about half a season. Your point is certainly valid, though. Still, a .901 fielding percentage (Encarnacion is .933) is... Hobsonesque?
Magpie - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#234958) #
an extended stay at Vegas for Snider

Who knows how long this will go on? After his hot start, he's 2 for his last 23 and still hasn't hit a HR.
Mike Green - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#234959) #
That was not my intention, Jonny.  I would be totally fine with Snider being recalled.  My point was merely that there was a role for Thames independent of Patterson staying or not. 

In essence, I was saying that Encarnacion and Rivera are both ideally cast as platoon/bench players at this stage, and you really on need one of them, given the right-handed tilt of the lineup.



bpoz - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#234961) #
That is a good list M Green. I can see Jiminez, being a Sept 2012 call up as he will need to be put on the 40 man roster after 2012. What role do you see for Janssen? He could be a FA after 2012, but I am not sure. I also feel Cooper could be our DH. McDade could be a Sept call up this year as he must be put on the 40 man, I assume you consider him a prospect.
92-93 - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#234962) #
For a contrasting perspective on McDade since he seems to be getting a lot of love around here recently, I offer a Kevin Goldstein (BPro) tweet :

“@chriswcarr: @Kevin_Goldstein thoughts on Michael McDade. He a prospect at all?” For an eating contest, maybe. Bench bat long shot.
Mike Green - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#234964) #
Twitter is not ideally suited to prospect analysis.  What I want to know (for any analyst) is why.  Is it from concerns about the swing?  Is it because he is perceived to strike out too much?  Is it because it is perceived that he is very slow?  Not enough power?  The poor development of very big men?  A combination of a lot of things? 

Maybe Kevin Goldstein has seen something, and maybe he hasn't.  But you'll never know from a tweet.  I guess that you have to pay find out his reasoning.  And for that, I'll take a pass.

sam - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#234965) #
Michael McDade might be a Willy Aybar type player at first base. 
China fan - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#234966) #

....But you'll never know from a tweet...

Despite Twitter's reputation, it is actually possible to compress a lot of information into 140 characters -- or use a second or third tweet to provide the detail.  If Goldstein did not bother to make that effort, it makes me suspicious of his conclusion.  He could have provided some evidence, and he did not.

 

Mike Green - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#234967) #
Fair enough, CF.

At age 22, Ryan Howard hit .280/.367/.460 in the Sally League.  McDade is a long way ahead of that.  I am not saying that McDade will develop the way Howard has, but he does have a chance (heck, Calvin Pickering hit .309/.454/.566 in the Eastern League at age 21 and that is the alternative less than happy future for McDade).  If you have some reason for believing that McDade is very much more likely to develop the way Pickering did than the way Howard did, it's a good thing to say why. 
Spifficus - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#234968) #
I think your expectations for how someone uses twitter are a bit narrow. Goldstein uses it more for off the cuff comments, and this seems in keeping with it. Conclusion + glibness. It's not really a format he uses for full-fledged analysis. just because you can do something doesn't mean you should be expected to, especially if you're getting paid for more in depth thoughts elsewhere.
TamRa - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#234969) #
Boston - WILL play better, but WON'T be the predicted powerhouse unless Lacky and Matsuzaka can be fixed.

New York - on the clock, age wise. Burnett started off well last year too (3.31 ERA on first 8 starts); A-Rod is on a pace to hit about 25 homers; Jeter and Posada MIGHT stay poor and there's no guarantee Martin will hold out all year (injury prone too) - of course the reverse is also possible; Swisher si sucking right now too; I REALLY don't think Colon and Garcia are remotely this good over the balance of the season. there's a lot for a Yankee fan to worry about.

Tampa - Count me a skeptic on the rebuilt bullpen. I did think Juan Cruz was one of the best "low cost flyer" possibilities on the market and am not surprised by him (though the walk rate is a huge red flag). but i don't remotely buy into the idea they will hold up as one of the best bullpens in the league. I do believe in their rotation though.
On offense, I expect Joyce and Zobrist to col a bit (though still be solid players) - someone mentioned the Jays having four sour spots (3B, 2B, LF, CF), well the much admired Rays are getting very little behind the plate, almost nothing from SS, not much from LF and only mediocre contributions at DH. I think Brignac will hit a bit better, but that will be balanced by Kotchman hitting a bit worse. and the bench isn't great either.
On the whole, they don't scare me - other than the almost supernatural sense in which they seem to get a greater total than the sum of their parts year after year.

I do think the division is up for grabs. I can't say I'm wildly confident about whether we can make a grab for it.

Toronto - Bautista HAS to cool - doesn't he? Davis will hit better, though possibly never to as high a level as we might have hoped. Last year through his first 34 games he hit .534, after that through the rest of the year he hit .303/.336/.409/.746 - i think that's probably who he is and what we can look forward to. Rivera has a well documented history of slow starts and can't be THIS bad forever, ditto EE - he WILL hit better. I think in the end, though, rivera won't hit well enough to stay, or be dealt - i look for a DFA around mid-season. EE i think will be ok. But not the "breakout" season AA was gambling on.

So yeah, a lot of room for improvement and other than Bautista, not a lot offensively you can point to and say "it won't stay that good"

The question marks on offense are Hill (seriously, this is getting kinda nuts) Snider (ditto) and what kind of contribution Lawrie makes when he arrives. the answer to these will go a long way towards what the second half looks like.

On the pitching front, I'm giddy about the Romero/Morrow duo, content with Drabek and Litsch in their roles (though Drabek has room for improvement to be sure) and not really busted up about Reyes. He'll either continue to gradually get it more together, or he'll lose out to Cecil, Mills, or someone at some point. He's a better stopgap than we've had in the past.

The bullpen is aces, except Dotel. MUCH more likely to still be kicking ass in august than the Tampa pen (or any bullpen in the ALE)

The foundation is there for them to run with the other three into late summer (say all of them within 5 games or so of each other) but there will HAVE to be some "stepping up" on offense (and no decline in pitching) to really be anything more than a spoiler.

I think it is very possible, but I have no idea if they WILL.

Oh, and on another note, one thing that makes me feel good about the near future is the plethora of tradeable assets that don't really fit into the team's future as AA envisions it.

Cooper, for instance, is a fine little asset - no one's idea of a potential star but of value - and he's almost certainly never going to get regular AB in Toronto. the list of "good little players" who don't have necessarily high ceilings who might combine to get you an added piece without damaging the future is pretty decent:

Thames - if they are REAL sure on Snider
Jenkins - duplicated by McGuire and Woj, few openings
Pierre - just for the tools overs out there
Sierra - best spot is RF which is, kinda occupied
Mastroianni - the better Gose and Marisnick do...
Cooper - as described above
McDade - assuming someone out there thinks more highly than most
Webb - work in progress
Carreno
Mills - assuming he's blocked
Richmond - probably has lost all value, except as maybe a throw in
L. Perez

None of these guys is going to get you an all star, or even likely a package of them. But maybe you take advantage of a team not going anywhere like the Cubs or the Dodgers, or at least get a plug in if injuries leave you with a hole you can't fill.

As an example - pluck Reed Johnson off the Cubs for Carreno (a better option than the Dewayne Wises of the world IMO)

Want a dream scenario? Use d'Arnaud (or Jiminez) as the centerpiece of a package for Matt Kemp - d'Arnaud + Davis (just to clear the spot) + Thames + Jenkins (for instance)

Point is, depth = flexibility.

But none of that matters if you can't get another 2-3 guys hitting consistently.


Mylegacy - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#234972) #
I've decided to put on my rose coloured glasses - the ones with the bulky white retro frames - just in case inquiring minds wanted to know...

With those glasses I see us contending in 11 IF - we can stay close till the All-Star break. I can't help but see Lawrie as a MUCH better everyday 3rd baseman than JMac (no offense to JMac with whom I've a man crush). I see Thames or Snider as being a BIG improvement on Rivera and or Patterson. I see a healthy Lind as a BIG improvement over Cooper and Encarnacion. I see the loser of the Thames/Snider battle as being a BIG improvement over EE or Rivera as the DH. I think JPA is a monster in the making - I see a +25 homers this year with him being a regular 40+ guy in the future...

Unfortunately, my rose coloured glasses are having a side effect - I can't seem to get my mind past Magpie's sentence - "Through 2001, Jeter had hit .360 on his balls in play." I keep thinking - why would he want to hit .360 on his balls - in play - or even in jest for that matter - or even after a few too many scotches - or just for something to do on a Friday night out with the boys...Magpie - I'm beginning to think you're a closet BDSM aficionado and were trying to see if any of us would bite. Magpie - my little trinket collector - I never bite.

I just took my rose coloured glasses off and put back on my wire framed progressives - DID I just write that last paragraph! What a naughty boy I am. Time for me to reset my wretched little mind with a scotch - single malt - a double - natch.

Magpie - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#234973) #
I'm beginning to think you're a closet BDSM aficionado

I had to look that up...
robertdudek - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#234979) #
I think some of us should take a step back and realize that Aaron Hill is just not an elite hitter and should be looked at as a defense first guy with some extra pop. He should probably bat 6th or 7th in a good lineup. Today's game showed what he can do: an amazing defensive play that was probably the turning point in the game. Then he hits the ball hard a few times and gets rewarded for it. Maybe his new swing mechanics will allow him to fulfill his true destiny as a line-drive hitter.

Aaron, remember, keep that swing level and many of those lazy fly balls will disappear.

cybercavalier - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#234980) #
My two cents:

When the 51s seasons began, Mastroianni would have been batting at the bottom of the AAA lineup just like where Rajai Davis is batting in Toronto. When Darin's confidence and skills on hitting AAA grows, then he could be moved to batting lead-off or second. Arencibia is just been treated similarly in Toronto: his on-base percentage is improving from expectation without sacrificing his power. On the other sides of things, McCoy, Mayorson, even Woodward or Lane could be used at the top of the lineup.
robertdudek - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#234981) #
Side note:

Many have put their faith in Cory Patterson; many have been left profoundly disappointed.

He looks like a good player but isn't.

ayjackson - Monday, May 16 2011 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#234982) #
Patterson looks like a 2011 version of Fred Lewis.  He`ll be fine until he stops hitting.
Spifficus - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 12:26 AM EDT (#234991) #

I think some of us should take a step back and realize that Aaron Hill is just not an elite hitter and should be looked at as a defense first guy with some extra pop.

I would love to get the '06/07 Hill back. Line drives, good glove, decent power for a 2B. Here's hoping...

China fan - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 04:20 AM EDT (#234999) #

....Many have put their faith in Cory Patterson; many have been left profoundly disappointed....

The Jays never put a huge amount of faith in Corey Patterson.  He was acquired to be a 4th outfielder.  If it hadn't been for the unexpected collapse of Travis Snider and the injury to Rajai Davis, he wouldn't have seen a lot of playing time.  He was forced into the breach, and has actually risen to the challenge, producing a 0.6 WAR.  The Jays should be grateful to him -- the position could have been a sinkhole in the Jays lineup if he hadn't come through. So it's a bit unfair to sneer at him.  In fact, his OPS is 200 points higher than that of Vernon Wells and Alex Rios -- and who would have predicted that!

If Snider can get his act together in Las Vegas, he'll be back in the majors and Patterson will become the 4th OF.  Or if Eric Thames lives up to his hype, Patterson can become the 4th OF.  In the meantime, Patterson is doing his job.  Perhaps the criticism should instead be directed at the players who have failed to live up to their expectations -- and there are several of those on the roster.

robertdudek - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#235036) #
The fact that Patterson has hit well (by his own standards) so far in a small sample should not be enough to convince doubters. Patterson has a history of having an exceptionally poor K/W ratio. With his speed, he should be an elite defender, but he is terrible at going back on balls. He should be one of the best base-runners in baseball, but he makes many poor decisions. He was once an elite base stealer (his only redeeming quality), but he's on the wrong side of 30 and it's showing up in his success rate.

He is the quintessential "tools goof" - a guy who looks like an all-star but doesn't have either the baseball IQ or the work ethic to get there. Remember, this is a guy who was drafted 3rd overall.


China fan - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#235038) #
Robert, I respect all of those points, and I think you're right.  But now that I understand better what you're saying, aren't we making separate points, in a way?  Your argument is that Patterson is not nearly as good as he should be, and he has failed to fulfill his multi-talented potential.  My thesis is that, regardless of whether he lives up to his talents, he is still good enough, at current production, to be useful to the Jays this season.  I don't think those are contradictory points.
John Northey - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#235042) #
That got me thinking about the contract sinkholes that have left...

Rios: 197/259/296 - last 3 years = 257/308/410 for an 89 OPS+. Ugh. Age 25/26 he was a 120 OPS+ all-star, since he is now at a 97 OPS+ with peak at 27 of 112. Owed $12 million a year for the next 3 years by the White Sox plus $1 mil buyout of his 2015 option.

Wells: 183/224/303 this year (48 OPS+). Wow. Can you 'traded in the nick of time'? Owed $86 million over 2011-2014 of which Toronto only has to deal with $5 million.

So $33+ million a year that is going to two ex-Jays who are hitting at John McDonald (pre-Cito) levels while playing the outfield. Yikes.
robertdudek - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#235050) #
China fan,

I agree completely with your last post.

My one caveat is that Patterson's "success" may have been the key factor in deciding to release Podsednik ( I assume they made a promise to him that they would either call him up or release him by a certain date).  I think that a healthy Podsednik can do more for the team than Patterson.

TamRa - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#235056) #
if the Jays thought as much of Pods as you do, they wouldn't have ranked him behind Dewayne Wise on the depth chart.
cybercavalier - Wednesday, May 18 2011 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#235096) #
I agree with both Chinafan and Robert on Patterson. I also regard the situation that Patterson is having an advantage of Bautista protecting him while producing offensively. The scenario of Patterson resembles that of Alex Gonzalez before trading to the Braves. For the Jays to take more advantage on Patterson, trading him to a team lacking outfield depth is good. To my surprise, one of these potential teams is Atlanta. My very tentative trade is him for bringing back Tyler Pastornicky.
Chuck - Wednesday, May 18 2011 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#235098) #

I also regard the situation that Patterson is having an advantage of Bautista protecting him while producing offensively.

In the same way that Bautista is the benefactor of Juan Rivera's protection?

cybercavalier - Wednesday, May 18 2011 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#235128) #
In the same way that Bautista is the benefactor of Juan Rivera's protection?

Taking these three players individually, common sense would take Bautista as the best player. So Patterson would be more of a benefactor from Bautista than Bautista from Rivera. However, if the answer was supposed to be trivial, intelligent question would not have been asked. Or are there some other ideas in mind ?
cybercavalier - Wednesday, May 18 2011 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#235132) #
Anyway, back to the topic.

Patterson could also go to the White Sox whree only Pierre, Quentin and Rios are outfielders. Of course the argument is would Patterson keep his performance up and improve ? Bautista's performance history from a journeyman to an all-star and slugger is helping Patterson's cause. An antithesis would be the Alex Gonzalez who got the Jays Yunel Escobar but is hitting .245/.276/.393.. Maybe the Jays' coaching staff can tweak something within Patterson so he could fulfill his potential with the Jays.

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