Player Development Directors hold that from year to year, one-third of an organization’s Minor League players will improve, one-third will maintain their development and production, and one-third will waver.  So far, the 2011 Toronto Blue Jays Minor League system appears to be an exception.  Blue Jays Minor League players are playing exceptionally well and all the full-season teams are playing above .500-ball. 

This is a two part story, yesterday we looked at the Dunedin and Lansing squads.  Part two today covers Las Vegas and New Hampshire.  Bauxite sam volunteered to write up this half of the story so these ratings are his opinion.  I am sure he will be by to answer your questions and comments.

Thanks sam.

Las Vegas 51’s

Brett Lawrie

Lawrie came to the organization over the summer in the Shaun Marcum trade with Milwaukee.  Lawrie has performed exceptionally well at AAA Las Vegas.  He has handled AAA pitching well and is working hard on the adjustment from second base to third base.  Since joining the organization, he has improved on anything the Jays have asked him to.  He has so far put questions about his off the field attitude to rest, shown improvements defensively despite a position change, and improved his approach at the plate almost on command (see Alex Anthopoulos interview and increased walk rate in May).  For the season he is hitting .354/.415/.677.  Those are significant improvements in all categories.     

John Sickels recently saw Lawrie in action and had this to say: “Based on his track record, and what I saw Sunday afternoon, I am convinced that Brett Lawrie has everything needed to be a superstar. The only things that could get in the way are injuries or his own personality.”

On his offence, Sickels had this to say: “Lawrie has always shown me good bat speed when I've seen him, but he's taken that up a notch this year. He's closed his stance slightly compared to previous observations, and his bat looks even quicker now. He is working counts MUCH more effectively than when I've see him in the past… The one thing that was keeping him from fully tapping his natural power was impatience, but he showed a terrific eye in this game, and this seems deliberate: after posting a weak 4/23 BB/K in April, he's at 11/13 in May. When he was in high school, scouting reports indicated that plate discipline was one of his strengths. He didn't show much of that in his first two years of pro ball, but he is suddenly controlling the zone again. If he keeps that up, look out.”

On his defense, Sickels had this to say: “Lawrie converted to third base from second base this year. The results so far: a .922 fielding percentage, although combined with a strong 3.02 range factor. If you look at the boxscore for this game (May 22), you'll see that Lawrie made two errors. But that's not the whole story.
One of his errors went like this: the ball was hit to the gap between the third baseman and shortstop. Lawrie was playing slightly off the bag, but ranged far to his left, well into the normal territory of the shortstop. The SS seemed to misread the ball but Lawrie got to it, backhanded it, did a quick almost 360 pivot, and fired the ball to the first baseman one step ahead of the runner. His release was very quick and it was a very athletic play. However, the throw was off target and pulled the first baseman off the bag. The key here was that Lawrie showed great range and quickness to his left, and with more experience at the position that throw might well have been on target.
Another impressive play: Lawrie was playing back. The hitter made a perfectly placed bunt, Lawrie charged, scooped the ball, and made an off-balance, on-target throw to first base. The runner beat the throw for a single, but again Lawrie showed the requisite quickness and athleticism for the position.
My view of Lawrie's defense is this: he has more than enough range and athleticism for third base, has a quick release, and a strong enough arm. He just needs more experience.”
 
Sickels is quite high on Lawrie and thinks he has really improved his attitude on the field.  Sickels concludes: “To summarize, I really believe in Lawrie's bat. He has the tools to be a good defensive third baseman with experience. He plays very hard on the field. You don't have to be a nice guy to be a great player. If he avoids injuries, grows up a bit and learns to channel his energy and intensity, he's going to be a monster.”

Statisically, Lawrie has improved in almost every offensive category.  He’s already hit more homeruns than last year and he’s improved his walk-rate in the month of May.  Defensively he needs repetition, but he’s an incredible athlete with a strong work ethic. 

Lawrie has certainly improved. 

David Cooper

Cooper was drafted by the Jays in the first round of the 2008 Draft.  He signed early and started his professional career well passing through three levels.  At AA he began to struggle, and his prospect status diminished.  Now at AAA, Cooper is delivering the power and average he was projected to hit for when he was drafted.  Cooper received a call-up to the big league club earlier this season with the highlight being a homerun off a 98 mph fastball from Daniel Bard.  Now back with AAA Las Vegas, Cooper is putting together an impressive season that has put him back on the “prospect map.”  He is hitting at a ridiculously high .396/.449/.590, career highs in all categories.     

Cooper has had an excellent year to date.  He isn’t striking out as much and is really hitting the ball well.  While his power numbers are down, he is hitting a lot more doubles.  Any hitter who improves in the PCL is sure to encounter scepticism, for Cooper however, the numbers you might expect to go up—namely the homeruns haven’t.  For Cooper it seems as though he’s found his game—getting on base and hitting doubles.  It also seems that the organization has used Cooper’s production as the sort of benchmark for promotion in the organization.  A solid approach that yields a high OBP will likely get you promoted over the more glamorous categories.  If Cooper continues producing he’ll likely get another call-up this year and some consideration for the 1B/DH position with the Jays next year.

Cooper has improved.

Eric Thames

Thames was drafted by the Jays in the seventh round of the 2008 draft.  Thames’ first two professional seasons were marred in injury.  In 2010 Thames began in New Hampshire and led the team in most offensive categories.  He started this year in Las Vegas and is currently with the Blue Jays.  At Triple-A Las Vegas Thames hit .342/.419/.610, improvements in all categories from last year’s numbers at Double-A New Hampshire.   

Thames is a professional hitter who works hard on honing his craft.  Like Lawrie and Cooper he has excelled in Las Vegas.  So far in Toronto he has looked the part of Major League baseball player, having good at-bats with good cuts.  Going forward, however, Thames will need to improve his numbers against LH pitching if he wants to play everyday.  Thames will likely be sent back down to Las Vegas once management deem Travis Snider cured of his swing maladies.  If Thames shows well over the course of the next month, he might just supplant Travis Snider on the LF prospect depth chart. 

Thames is on pace to improve on his numbers from last year.  Thames has improved. 

Adam Loewen

Loewen was drafted a pitcher in 2002 by the Baltimore Orioles.  That didn’t work and two years ago he decided to try his hand at hitting.  Now into his third year as an offensive player, Loewen has shown improvements in several statistical categories.  He is currently hitting .317/.377/.570, improvements in all categories from last year. 

The talk when the Jays signed Loewen to play outfield was that he needed 1500 minor league at-bats.  Loewen is now 27 and will be at the 1500 at-bat mark by the end of the season.  Loewen has progressed over his three seasons with the Jays and has really come on of late with Las Vegas.  He still strikes out a lot, but he has developed some serious extra-base power. 

Loewen has improved.

Darin Mastroianni

Mastroianni had a fantastic year last year at AA New Hampshire, excelling in all the statistical categories you would want from a lead-off hitter.  There were calls for Mastroianni to be the fourth outfielder this year in Toronto, but the Jays opted to sign several veteran players to minor league contracts.  Nonetheless, Mastroianni started the season at Triple-A Las Vegas, but was demoted in part because of the glut of outfielders at Triple-A, and in part because he started the year slowly.  At Las Vegas he hit .264/.297/.345.  Now back at Double-A New Hampshire, he is hitting an even less impressive .210/.307/.286. 

So how a year changes everything.  Last year Mastroianni was one of the top performers in the Jays organization.  This year he has struggled and in the few Las Vegas games I watched he looked completely overmatched.  Mastroianni is in New Hampshire now where he has had to slide over to LF to make room for Anthony Gose.  Mastroianni can still make it to the ‘bigs’ provided he has a strong second half and earns a promotion back to Triple-A.  He possesses speed and strong defence, something that is always in demand. 

Mastroianni has declined.

Brian Jeroloman

Jeroloman has slowly progressed through the Blue Jays farm system.  After spending most of the 2010 season with New Hampshire AA, Jeroloman earned promotion and is now plying his trade in Las Vegas.  Jeroloman’s calling card will always be his glove and that will be what gets him to the big leagues.  With that being said, he has always showcased strong on-base numbers throughout his minor league career.  This year, however, Jeroloman is getting on base much less (.341) than last year (.436), and he has shown very little power (.269) as opposed to last year’s career slugging percentage (.439).  Jeroloman has been in the Jays organization for six years now, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens with him going forward.

Jeroloman has declined.   

Brad Mills

Mills has pitched exceptionally well (4-3/2.70/1.140/55) in a difficult pitchers league.  He’s managed to keep the ball from leaving the park and he’s walking less people.  In a system that now boasts several elite pitching prospects, Mills’ success has largely gone unnoticed.  He should be the next starter to get a call when someone goes down. 

Mills has improved.

Danny Farquhar

Farquhar was traded in the offseason to Oakland then re-acquired in the David Purcey trade earlier this year.  Since re-joining many of his teammates from last year’s New Hampshire team in Las Vegas, he has posted fairly solid numbers.  While hitters are hitting .306 against him for the season, he is striking out a batter per inning, and over the course of the last eight innings, he has posted an ERA of 0.82 with 5 saves.  Farquhar has held his own at AAA and will likely see time in the big leagues during the next rash of bullpen injuries. 

Farquhar as remained the same.     

New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Anthony Gose

Gose was acquired mid-season last year for Brett Wallace.  At the time of the trade, Jays management were said to have “been in” on Gose for almost two years.  While Wallace is currently plying his trade with Houston, Gose is developing his game in New Hampshire (AA).  The Jays acquired Gose because he projects out to be the CF every team dreams of.  He possesses plus-plus speed, a good hit tool, a developing eye, and some power to boot.  In CF he has the potential to win gold gloves for his range and his plus-plus arm.  So far he has improved in many of the categories the Jays would like to have to seen him improved.  Gose is getting on-base (.369) at a much higher clip than last year (.332).  He is successfully stealing bases at a much higher rate, and he is developing some HR-pop. 

Gose has improved. 

Adeiny Hechavarria

Hechavarria was acquired last year by the Jays as an IFA out of Cuba.  After spending some time working out at Extended Spring Training he began his professional career with the Dunedin Blue Jays.  To the surprise of many, Hechavarria was promoted to New Hampshire despite posting rather unimpressive numbers.  The thinking was that the Jays had Luis Rivera managing New Hampshire at the time and he’d best be able to converse and coach Hechavarria.  Hechavarria improved thereafter, posting solid numbers the rest of the way.  This season, Hechavarria was returned to New Hampshire, however, Luis Rivera remained with the big club.  In addition, Hechavarria has had to combat cold weather for the first time in his life, and his numbers so far have reflected these changes.  His average has dropped from last season (.273 to .241) and he hasn’t improved his on-base numbers.  With that being said, his numbers have improved in May, and his stealing more bases and hitting with more power than last year.  As the summer months approach, one would expect that his numbers improve. 

Hechavarria has remained the same.

Travis d’Arnaud

d’Arnaud was acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies in the Roy Halladay trade.  He spent his first year in the Jays organization with High-A Dunedin where he started strong but was cut down by a back injury.  In pre-season instructional camps at Rogers Centre, he impressed the Jays brass with his power, apparently hitting several homeruns off the Windows restaurant.  d’Arnaud started this season at Double-A New Hampshire.  In 13 games in April he hit .188 and suffered a minor concussion which sidelined him for several games as part of the new rules on concussions in baseball.  Upon his return in May d’Arnaud has hit .410, and is getting on-base at a .532 clip.  To prove that his Windows-power wasn’t limited to batting practice, he is slugging at an improved rate of .544 and is one homerun away from matching last year’s total in less than half the games played.  d’Arnaud gets rave reviews for his defence and pitch receiving, and is one of three players on the New Hampshire team who project to be plus-plus defensively at the Major League level (the others are Gose and Hechavarria).  d’Arnaud is throwing base runners out at a solid 29% this year.

d’Arnaud has improved.

Mike McDade

After being drafted in the sixth round of the 2007 Draft, McDade really came into his own last year at High-A Dunedin where he led the Florida State League in homeruns and won the organization’s Howard Webster award for that level.  He followed that up with an impressive stint in the Arizona Fall League where he was one of the youngest players participating.  So far this season, McDade has turned in improved numbers.  McDade is hitting .323 this year to last year’s .267 average.  That has, in part, driven his OBP up to .382, but McDade is also striking out a lot less than last year.  And despite leading the FSL in homeruns last year, McDade has currently upped his slugging percentage to .512. 

Despite his impressive season last year and the torrid start to this season, McDade rarely receives accolades from baseball writers.  It’s hard to understand why too.  Sure he gets knocked because he is a burly 6’1 260lbs., but that has never taken away from his game and most reports have him as an excellent athlete and operator in and around first base and certainly not a “clogger” on the base-paths.  Moreover, McDade essentially carried the New Hampshire team through April and hits equally well from both sides of the plate.  Sure, he could walk some more, but he is power-hitting, switch-hitting 1B who is fairly young for his level.  According to Anthony Gose, he hears from scouts that McDade is the best 1B in the Minor Leagues.  So who knows?

McDade has certainly improved.

Moises Sierra

Since signing as an IFA in 2005, Sierra has slowly made his way through the Toronto system.  Two years ago Sierra had a career year at High-A Dunedin earning a promotion to Double-A New Hampshire and winning the organization’s Howard Webster award for the level.  Near the end of the year, however, Sierra was struck on the wrist with a pitched ball and suffered a serious wrist injury which robbed him of his 2010 season.  The Jays and Sierra appeared to be at a crossroads this offseason as he needed to be added to the 40-man roster or the Jays risked losing Sierra to the Rule 5 Draft.  The Jays wisely added Sierra to the 40-man roster and Sierra is on-pace to have a career year.  So far with Double-A New Hampshire, Sierra has hit .304/.360/.486, improved numbers from his 2009 season.  Most importantly, Sierra has improved his power numbers, something that evaluators have always questioned.  Sierra is reported to possess the strongest arm in the Blue Jays system and one of the strongest arms in the Minor Leagues.  Sierra is considered a plus defender in RF, and an integral part to one of the best defences in the Minor Leagues. 

Sierra has improved.

Henderson Alvarez

Alvarez had an average year last year, yet was selected to the Futures Game.  He possesses very good stuff (a plus sinking fastball, a very good change-up, and a developing breaking ball) that lends itself to ground balls so the thinking went that once he got to the higher levels with better fielders, his numbers would improve.  So far, at Double-A New Hampshire, those theories seem to have been verified.  Although he struggled out of the gate at High-A Dunedin, possibly still getting over a Spring Training injury, he has been lights out in three starts with New Hampshire.  He has posted solid numbers (2-0/1.50/1.00/13) and looks to be now healthy.  While he may never strike out as many people as you’d like to see from a guy who throws as hard as he does, he is still very young and could use a couple more seasons in the Minors to refine his breaking ball.

Alvarez has improved based on the small sample size. 

Zach Stewart

Stewart was acquired as part of the Scott Rolen trade a few years back.  At the time, there was some debate whether Stewart would be used as a reliever or starter going forward.  While his ultimate destination may be the backend of a bullpen, the Jays appear to be firmly committed to developing Stewart as a starter.  Stewart spent the 2010 season with Double-A New Hampshire making 26 starts.  He put up solid numbers and really began to come on late in the year.  Coming into the 2011 season, Stewart was in the conversation for the 5th spot in the Toronto Blue Jays’ rotation.  When he lost out, most people assumed that he would be sent to Triple-A Las Vegas.  The Jays, fearing that Stewart may regress in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast league, sent him back to Double-A New Hampshire where I’m sure they hoped he would dominate.  While Stewart hasn’t struggled this time around, he hasn’t pitched extremely well.  His ERA is higher, hitters are hitting at a higher are getting hits at a higher rate, and he is striking out less people.  With that being said, he was excellent in his most recent start.  Hopefully Stewart’s last start will be indicative of the way he pitches the second half of the season. 

Stewart has regressed, so far. 

Joel Carreno

Carreno signed as an IFA in 2004.  Since then, he has slowly made his way up the ranks to where he is now—Double-A New Hampshire.  Last year at High A-Dunedin, Carreno was superb, leading the team in innings pitched and strikeouts.  This year at New Hampshire, he followed an atrocious April with an excellent May where he went 4-0.  His line so far is very good.  He is striking out more than a batter per inning and Eastern League hitters are only hitting .184 against him, although he is walking substantially more people than last year.  It’s hard to evaluate whether Carreno has improved, such is the polarity of difference between April and May.  With that being said, LH hitters are hitting about the same as RH hitters which could mean the change-up many in the organization had hoped he’d develop is coming along with his solid fastball and plus slider. 

Carreno has stayed the same.

Alan Farina

Health will always be a major issue with Farina.  He possesses ML-calibre stuff, but keeping him healthy enough to play will be the issue.  Farina started out this year at Double-A New Hampshire strong, posting 1.56 ERA over 17 innings.  He is currently on the 7-day DL. 

Nothing has changed for Farina, he has stayed the same. 

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Thanks sam.  If any of you readers want to write something for batters box we willingly accept offers, so don't be sht, give it a shot. 

Here are the top 30 prospects with rankings where we have them.  The 30 names are drawn from Batters Box own top 30.

1. Kyle Drabek - Toronto

2. JP Arencibia - Toronto

3. Zack Stewart - New Hampshire - Disappoint

4. Adeiny Hechavarria - New Hampshire - Flat

5. Carlos Perez - Lansing - Flat

6. Deck McGuire - Dunedin - Flat

7. Henderson Alvarez - New Hampshire - Improved

8. AJ Jimenez - Dunedin - Improved

9. Travis d'Arnaud - New Hampshire - Improved

10. Eric Thames - Las Vegas - Improved

11. Jake Marisnick - Lansing - Improved

12. Anthony Gose - New Hampshire - Improved

13. Asher Wojciechowski - Dunedin - Flat

14. Aaron Sanchez - Extended - Inconclusive

15. Chad Jenkins - Dunedin - Disappoint

16. Joel Carreno - New Hampshire - Flat

17. Moises Sierra - New Hampshire - Improved

18. Brad Mills - Las Vegas - Improved

19. Darin Mastroianni - New Hampshire - Disappoint

20. Brad Emaus - Traded

21. Noah Syndergaard - Extended - inconclusive

22. Danny Farquhar - Las Vegas - Flat

23. Drew Hutchison - Lansing - Improved

24. Trystan Magnuson - Traded

25. Brian Jeroloman - Las Vegas - Disappoint

26. Dickie Joe Thon - Extended - Inconclusive

27. Griffin Murphy - Extended - Inconclusive

28. Gustavo Pierre - Lansing - Disappoint

29. Marcus Knecht - Lansing - Improve

30. Mike McDade - New Hampshire - Improve

Others who could be top 30 after 2011:

Nestor Molina - Dunedin - Improved

Justin Jackson - Dunedin - Improved

Michael Crouse - Lansing - Improved

Sean Nolin - Lansing - Improved

Here is the summary by type:

Toronto - 2

Traded - 2

Inconclusive - 4

Improved - 11

Flat - 6

Disappoint - 5