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In pre-honour of Jason Frasor tieing Dave Stieb for 3rd most appearances as a pitcher, an Advance Scout.


The Jays kick off a six game homestand tonight against the Red Sox, after which they get the O's, followed by a 10 game road trip against Cincinnati, Atlanta and St. Louis, with a makeup game against the Tigers in for good measure. Apropos of nothing, I really  think they should really change the interleague rules so that pitchers hit in the AL parks, and DH's hit in the NL. I realize this sort of twists the advantage that's supposed to exist, but really, I think it would be a hoot to see Ricky Romero bat, and I'm sure that people in Milwaukee or wherever would rather see David Ortiz than Daisuke at the plate (or maybe not I guess).

In any case, after last night's unfortunate loss to the Royals, coupled with the Red Sox come from behind pounding of the Yankees, the Jays now sit 4.5 back in the Division, and have a chance to make up (or lose) ground. It comes at a critical juncture in the season, as for the first time the Jays are essentially all healthy and are fielding their optimal lineup and rotation - minus the Lorax and Jesse Litsch, and I suppose Snidro and Cecil, though that is voluntary. So, we wanna see what these guys can do. Yunel Escobar is apparently expected back today, which is good - I would say he's been the team's 3rd best position player, and 4th best player overall, and when he is in the lineup the Jays basically have as good a first five as any team in baseball - well, other than the Red Sox. Their other guys, well... So any result other than getting swept would be acceptable I think, and winning the series especially great, if only for the SOSH reaction.

The Red Sox come into this series as probably both the hottest team in baseball and the best team in baseball. As for the latter, they've now won 6 in a row after going into New York and sweeping the Yankees (so yeah, like I said, let's not get swept) and are 34-16 after their disasterous start. For the fomer, well, I don't know who you would say is better - St. Louis and Philadelphia have been playing pretty well, but they are in the National League, and I think the Sox are clearly the class of the AL. Carl Crawford is hitting .355/.394/.726 over his last 16 games, which isn't really good for anyone. Dustin Pedroia has a knee, and it's unclear if he will need surgery this year, but he is soldiering on at the moment. Rumours of David Ortiz's demise have been greatly exaggerated - he's hitting .326/.394/.612 and has hit 15 home runs. Kevin Youkilis has been just alright, as far as Kevin Youkilis goes, but I figure is a decent bet to turn it on at some point - he's hitting 50 points worse than he has in the previous 2 years, and still has good power and walk numbers. Adrian Gonzalez is basically hitting like everyone thought he would hit like outside of Petco. Meanwhile the real star of the show might be Jacoby Ellsbury, who has an .846 OPS and has stolen 24 bases. Ok, that star thing might be hyperbole, but the point being, the Red Sox have a bunch of guys that can f*#%ing hit. Jed Lowrie has done well in sub duty, while Salty (I am not spelling that) is basically JPA light.

Both teams will miss the other's best pitcher, but unfortunately if you are a Toronto fan, the other three guys the Red Sox will be rolling out are pretty good. On Friday Jo-Jo Reyes gets Clay Buchholz, who's actually been pushed back 2 days because of a back issue. Buchholz has been good but not great this year, and goes fastball, curve, change, and then either a slider or a cutter (it's unclear in Pitchfx, which has him throwing a slider before this year and a cutter only this year.) The fastball can get up into the mid-90s, while the change and cutter come in around 80 and 77. His slider/now cutter has historically been his best pitch, but he hasn't done as well with it this year. His strikeout and walk rates are about the same as last year, which is to say mediocre (6.2/9, 3.3/9) but he is allowing a bunch more fly balls and home runs than he has in the past, although his groundball rate remains the same, and the fly balls are replacing line drives, which is normally a good tradeoff. Buchholz has been tabbed as an ace for a while, but now has thrown over 400 innings of moderately above average ball over parts of four seasons, and doesn't seem to have made the jump. Buchholz has been pretty good against the Jays though - lifetime, Jose Bautista is 5/19 with only 1 home run, Aaron Hill is 8/27, Adam Lind 9/26 with 2 dingers, and Jose Molina 3/5. Patterson, Rivera, JPA, Davis and Escobar are a combined 4/34 against him. In his only start against the Jays this year he walked 5 in 5 innings and gave up 3 runs.

On Saturday it's Brandon Morrow and Big John Lackey. The Red Sox would certainly like their $82.5 million back, but as it seems unlikely that Lackey is so inclined, they keep running him out there. Lackey has been either good or terrible, allowing 3, 1, 9, 8, 2, 0, 1, 6, and 9 runs in his last 8 starts (most recent first) and has gone past six just twice. Lackey has a decent slider, but opposing batters have been teeing off on his fastball for the better part of two years. He also throws a good curve, especially for a righty, and a show me change once every now and then. His command is going, as he issued his most free passes since 2005 last year, and is easily besting both those marks this year, walking 20 in 45 innings, against only 21 strikeouts. Batters have always made solid contact against Lackey, but he managed to keep the ball down, the walks low and the strikeouts high, none of which are the case so far this year. Bautista is 3/14 lifetime, but two of those went over the fence, Adam Lind is 10/18, Rajai Davis 8/21, Patteson 3/18, Hill 4/25.

The rubber match features wild Kyle Drabek against the good Jon, Lester, who I think is one of the best pitchers in baseball, although he is having a down year by his standards. This is actually the second matchup between the two (the first was the David Cooper HR game), though neither acquitted themselves well the first time (Lester was good in his other start against the Jays.) Jon predominantly throws a fastball, which has lost about a mile an hour this year, and an extremely good, albeit slightly slower, cutter (92.5 v. 90). He throws his curveball much less than he has in the past, and his changeup slightly more, though he uses it essentially only against righties. Lester strikes out a ton of guys - slightly more than one an inning in the past, slightly less than one an inning this year. He will walk guys, but not enough to cause alarm. He's also a groundball pitcher. The main differences between last year and this one is he has gotten a little less lucky on balls in play and home runs, but otherwise he still looks pretty good, and he shut down the Jays earlier in the year, allowing 1 run in 6 innings. Bautista is 7/31 with 2 dingers, JPA 3/8, Escobar 3/10, Hill 2/29, Lind 3/17, Patterson 7/15.

The Red Sox pen has been good, one of the better ones when you strip out luck, though that is always dicey when evaluating bullpens. Jon Papelbon has been phenomenal other than people smoking the ball off him - he has a LD rate of 27% and opposing hitters are consequently batting .373 off him on balls in play. He also has 36 strikeouts and 5 walks in 26 innings. Daniel Bard, the #2 guy, has been even better, and throws in the high 90s and has a ridiculous swinging strike rate. Matt Albers and Dan Wheeler do some of the heavy lifting, while Bobby Jenks is on the DL, Hideki Okajima is in the minors and wants to be traded.

So that's that. First pitch 7:07, Jays +129

Advance Scout: Red Sox, June 10-12 | 108 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Alex Obal - Friday, June 10 2011 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#236480) #
Welcome back, Advance Scout.

If I'm John Farrell, Davis, Patterson and (McCoy?) are all bunting for hits at least once against Lackey.

Jonny German - Friday, June 10 2011 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#236490) #
Good read.

I think you're sticking your head in the sand on Buchholz. His career numbers are substantially better than "modestly above average" - his career ERA+ is 120 - and are pulled down by his terrible 76 innings as a 23-year old in 2008. And if leading the league in ERA+ as he did in last year isn't something like an ace... what the heck is? It's true that his numbers this year are far from what he did last year, but it's also true that he appears to have turned a corner after a rough April - his May/June numbers are 44 innings over 7 starts with a 2.89 ERA and 34 Ks to 10 walks.
Chuck - Friday, June 10 2011 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#236492) #

Welcome back, Advance Scout.

Indeed. Welcome back major league team to the forum.

 

Chuck - Friday, June 10 2011 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#236493) #

I think you're sticking your head in the sand on Buchholz.

Buchholz often has gopher ball issues... except when he doesn't. As a rookie, he threw 23 gopherless innings. Last year, he allowed an insanely low 9 in 174 innings. In his three other seasons, he's allowed 34 in 239 innings.

It's not clear where exactly this cat lives, although this year's version looks closer to the truth than last year's. He looks like a good pitcher, but not a great one.

uglyone - Friday, June 10 2011 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#236495) #
the thing is, his good ERA numbers are based entirely on last year's performance - and every other indicator from last year said that his ERA was a fluke.....and this year, that's proving to be true.

Jo-Jo Reyes has near as good numbers across the board as Reyes does this year.
Mike Green - Friday, June 10 2011 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#236497) #
It would be nice to see Rzepczynski back in the rotation soon, with Mills or Cecil taking a turn in the major league bullpen.  It would also be nice to see one of the right-handed relievers sent on to another club with Thames finding his way back to platoon DH.  Finally, Jason Frasor's $5 million salary and decent performance merits some kind of higher leverage role.  Perhaps he can be Duane Ward lite, so the ninth inning willies do not afflict him.



scottt - Friday, June 10 2011 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#236498) #
The word is that Escobar tested his quad and decided he needs another day.

Also Rauch might not be available due to the same issue that gave Janssen a save on Wednesday.

Pedroia has a bruised knee cap and Papelbon is playing through a 3-game suspension which he'll probably serve during interplay.

China fan - Friday, June 10 2011 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#236499) #

Jason Frasor's $5 million salary....

It's actually $3.5-million, according to Cot's and Baseball Reference.  But I agree that he deserves a shot at 8th and 9th inning roles.

....It would be nice to see Rzepczynski back in the rotation soon, with Mills or Cecil taking a turn in the major league bullpen....

I agree on Mills and Cecil, but it might be premature to put Zep into the rotation.  In his last 5 outings, he's given up 6 walks in less than 5 innings.  There's a theory that the league is beginning to adjust to him and beginning to realize that patience is the key, since he misses the plate quite often.  Not sure if this is true, but I'd like to see him showing more consistent command before he gets a rotation try-out.

...It would also be nice to see one of the right-handed relievers sent on to another club with Thames finding his way back to platoon DH....

In my view, Thames is too young to be a platoon hitter, especially at DH.  He needs plenty of time in the outfield if he's to have any chance at a future LF job.  And as a hitter, he should be learning to hit LH and RH.  So give him full-time play at Toronto or at Las Vegas, but not a platoon DH role, please.   As for the bullpen:  I still think the 8-man pen is a good idea for a team where nobody except Romero is going deep into games consistently.

 

lexomatic - Friday, June 10 2011 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#236500) #
Wow, apparently the Rangers have already signed 14 of their picks as per minorleagueball
krose - Friday, June 10 2011 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#236502) #
...It would also be nice to see one of the right-handed relievers sent on to another club with Thames finding his way back to platoon DH....

Can't help wondering if Cooper should be the first position player to be called up. Lind could occasionally play left while Cooper plays first. Shift Patterson to center. A little stronger hitting lineup against righties.

Gerry - Friday, June 10 2011 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#236503) #
As I mentioned yesterday the Vancouver Canadians season starts one week from today so all teams need players. Camps are open this weekend in Florida and Arizona so that teams can put rosters together. The Jays will announce a lot of signings over the weekend or on Monday, not too many of them will be top ten picks from this years draft.
TamRa - Friday, June 10 2011 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#236504) #
Can't help wondering if Cooper should be the first position player to be called up. Lind could occasionally play left while Cooper plays first. Shift Patterson to center. A little stronger hitting lineup against righties.

We have too many LF options for Lind to ever be out there. i think if i wanted to have the ability to backup both 1B and the outfield, which neither Thames nor Cooper can do - I'd try Loewen.

(albeit you need to free a spot on the 40 if you assume the open one belongs to Lawrie - or rather you'd have to create another one when Lawrie is ready)

Mick Doherty - Friday, June 10 2011 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#236506) #
Italics OFF. There.
Mick Doherty - Friday, June 10 2011 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#236507) #

DAMMIT!!!

Spifficus - Friday, June 10 2011 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#236509) #
Prsonally, I like Rzep's stuff better out of the pen. He was quite slider-reliant in the rotation, and that plays better out of the pen,... Especially with his fastball up ancouple ticks.
Mike Green - Friday, June 10 2011 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#236510) #
Pinch-hitting Encarnacion for Nix makes no sense to me.
greenfrog - Friday, June 10 2011 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#236511) #
Chances are, a lineup of RHB that (5 through 1) goes Rivera / Arencibia / Hill / Davis / Nix / McCoy isn't going to do much damage against a quality RHP like Buchholz. As good as Patterson, Bautista and Lind have been, that's a pretty anemic lineup.
scottt - Friday, June 10 2011 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#236512) #
They went 0 for 21 today, but that's not likely to happen often.
The_Game - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 12:37 AM EDT (#236513) #
This team seriously needs more than 2 left-handed bats. Play to win, AA. Stop giving Rivera ABs against righties.
hypobole - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 12:41 AM EDT (#236514) #
Pinch-hitting Encarnacion for Nix makes no sense to me.                                                                                                                                                                 The fact that Nix is hitting .176/.239/.318 vs RH pitching may have had something to do with the decision.
Magpie - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#236515) #
Pinch-hitting Encarnacion for Nix makes no sense to me.

Well, it is Jayson Nix, career .213 hitter. You gotta find someone to hit for him.
Mike Green - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#236517) #
Well, if you combine the pinch-hit penalty and the fact that you are three runs down and the fact that Encarnacion has very significant platoon splits, it amounts to nothing for nothing. Both have about equal possibility of hitting a 3 run homer and that's about it.

It's fundamentally a roster construction problem, of course. Too many right-handed left-side of the defensive spectrum on a short bench due to the eight man pen. Earl Weaver's club could have a couple of these guys because he had a 5 man pen.
#2JBrumfield - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#236518) #
On an unrelated note, a friend of mine went to last night's disaster and said Boston's "More Than A Feeling"  was played between innings.  That's right up there with playing "New York, New York" after an Evil Empire victory here as detailed by an old friend to his here website back in 2005.  The company that rhymes with Dodgers is awesome, ain't it?  Glad I'm avoiding Fenway Park North this weekend.
92-93 - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#236519) #
The fundamental problem here isn't roster construction, I don't think. It's AA's belief that the Blue Jays can't contend in 2011 therefore he must capitalize on any possible asset rather than trying to make the team better. With Thames & Cooper on the lower end of the prospect totem and excelling in AAA it makes little sense keeping them both down while Rivera and Encarnacion are up with the big club, but it appears AA is determined to milk any possible value out of these kind of guys before handing the job to kids in the organization who can better round out the roster. If Snider is indeed an OF of the future they have 3 guys in Thames, Cooper, and Loewen who should all be seeing time with the MLB club this year so they can determine if there's a future as a 4th OF/LH bat off the bench - you don't want to again have to start cutting into Snider's regular playing time once he comes back up. These guys should be taking ABs away from Patterson, Rivera, and Encarnacion while the team has the ABs to give. Then again if it's all about development for the future you can justify trying to milk value out of the veterans - it's a delicate balance.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#236521) #
Agreed with 92-93.  Unfortunately, I think the second half of this year will be more interesting for watching the young players develop (both in the minors and here) and seeing what magic AA can pull off in the trade market, than for what the major league team does.  But we pretty much knew that going in.  In light of that I'm not on board with The Game's idea to play to win, necessarily.

But the team does need a couple more left handed bats, for sure.  It's too bad Lawrie doesn't swing left.  I know the Jays statistically have a good offense this year, but it's obviously not an elite calibre lineup, and you throw a righty who kills righty batters at it and you're basically sunk.

Mike Green - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#236523) #
Hey, #2JB, don't look back. :)
The_Game - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#236525) #
Continuing to start Rivera against righties is only sapping whatever trade value he even has (and it's not going to be a lot). One of Thames/Cooper/Loewen should be up right now and taking those ABs, both for the sake of bettering the team and for the sake of their overall development.

In addition, I'm still not quite sure why Edwin Encarnacion is still with the organization. The manager has no faith in his ability to play any position in the field and he's not hitting, either. Give it up, AA, you're not going to get anything out of this guy.
scottt - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#236528) #
It's the pitching that needs to improve to compete. A solid rotation would also shrink the pen so they can use a platoon at one of the position where they don't have an above average player which would also produce a stronger bench.

Romero is solid. Morrow has regressed. Drabek needs to work on his control. Reyes is a 5th starter. I see Villanueva as a temp.

Shane - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#236529) #

"The fundamental problem here isn't roster construction, I don't think. It's AA's belief that the Blue Jays can't contend in 2011"

Mmm, would seem a little 2008'ish to me. Just different names that the Brad Wilkerson's, Shannon Stewart's, Kevin Mench's. 13-4!? Crippes, what the hell has happened to Morrow? Man.

 

 

 

The_Game - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#236530) #
Morrow is fine, he had a 2.17 FIP/3.30 xFIP heading into this game. That was just the Red Sox being completely locked in.

Really hope this rumour about the league scrapping the divisions and having five playoff spots in the AL comes to fruition. 


Shane - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#236531) #

"Morrow is fine, he had a 2.17 FIP/3.30 xFIP heading into this game. That was just the Red Sox being completely locked in."

Sounds good (regarding Morrow) . I know Aaron Hill has been hitting the ball hard lately without great results, but what do ya think? Do either of his remaining options get picked up? I assume no. Maybe a new one year deal can be reached afterwards (end of season).

The_Game - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#236532) #
There's little chance they'll pick up his options unless he experiences some kind of huge resurgence over the next 3.5 months. And if he doesn't, it's pretty unlikely that he would be the Jays first option at 2B in 2012. I don't think he'll be back.

Mike McCoy for closer, eh.



TamRa - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#236533) #
I think it's a given that unless Hill is playing at near MVP caliber the rest of the way the options won't be picked up. but I don't think it's a given he can't be brought back on a lower salary. Unless you are just willing to settle for scrubs in one position (McCoy, Nix, or something similar) or alternately you can flip one of our "excess" pitching prospects for a promising 2B.

According to BA's Top 100, the ranked 2B prospects would be:

#12 Ackley - surely not available
#40 Lawrie
#50 Hamilton (Reds) - if they intend to keep Phillips - but they might not let him go until they see how that plays out
#53 Franklin (M's) - listed as SS/2B - if he's difficent at short, he's blocked by Ackley (albeit Ackley has a marginal defensive reputation) - still, might be something there.
#54 Kipnis (Indians) - there's a potential opening in Cleveland
#57 Segura (Angels) - blocked by Kendrick
#66 Espinosa - has the job in Washington


there's also - and this might be the most logical fit - the idea that the Red Sox have Iglasias coming and two middle infielders they like. Trading iwthin the division aside, if you could get them interested in something we could spare...

Anyway, tangent aside - there's a difference in "We won't pick up the option (very likely true) and "He won't be back"


The_Game - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#236534) #
Why exactly would the team want to keep a player coming off two awful seasons at any salary? They are supposed to be in the business of trying to win in 2012 (or at least that's what Beeston has told me...though it's not like he hasn't lied to appease the masses before), not letting Hill try for a second straight comeback year at the age of 30.

If Hill's options aren't picked up, it's because the Jays think they can do better than him. And right now, they most certainly can.
Magpie - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#236535) #
Italics... they're back? BEGONE!

Anyway, it turns out Mike McCoy has been on the mound before.
Magpie - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#236536) #
Very strange - the italics were universal in Firefox (which I use for any post that involves HTML and stuff). But they're not a problem in Chrome (my regular browser).
Jdog - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#236537) #
As for 2B prospects

Jean Segura has made the switch to SS and from most reports it looks like he will work at SS.
Hamilton ..is not having a great year and is still at least a couple years away IMHO.
Cleveland would be our best bet as they have Cord Phelps and Jason Kipnis as 2B prospects. Phelps recently got the call up and maybe if he makes a good impression they would be open to dealing Kipnis for some pitching. I would love Kipnis.
Jim - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#236538) #
You look at today's lineup and it's hard to believe they are over .500.  It's still not the lineup that scares me the most.  The rotation is what scares me.

They have 1 starter who has an ERA+ > 100 (yes Morrow has pitched better than his ERA).  The bullpen is fine but that rotation is going to limp through summer unless they get Drabek going and fix Cecil.  I don't know how much longer you can let Drabek stay in the majors, his ERA will be 6+ at the rate he is going.

Shouldn't they stretch out Zep and get him ready to go back into the rotation?  Even though they are only a few games out they don't seem to give off the aura that they think they are contenders. 

cybercavalier - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#236539) #
Several questions seems to reveal themselves in front of me after reading the comments.

If AA is all about value management,

1) would it make sense to let EE play through his woes at 3B until Lawrie is up in T.O. for good ? EE seems to be stronger and possess a more powerful bat than Nix, who can be the more or less late inning designated substitution of EE. Or it appears that EE's value rest only in his bat and the Jays' coaching cannot improve his value. So Nix appears to have the chance of increasing his value with his own performance.

2) Would playing Patterson and Rivera increase their values so much to justify keeping Thames and Cooper in AAA. If the latter two with Snider and Loewen are all the future of the baseball club, it would make sense to play all four of them in Toronto if season 2011 is not supposed to be a season of contending for postseason. If the player transactions are to make the team better overall and not sacrificing prospect development, would it make sense to keep on of the four for regular playing time in T.O. ? The answer of this last question seems to lead the reader back to setting the priority of developing the values of Patterson and Rivera or developing the four prospects. Common sense seems to point to prospect development whereas the relevant player transactions appears to direct the Jays' observer in the opposite.

3) Regarding the situation on Hill, if developing Patterson and Rivera appears to be a priority, it would make sense to put Hill in the lineup pack of Escobar, Bautista and Lind. Based on fans' perceptions, Hill seems not to be a patient hitter. Putting him in the #2 slot in front of Bautista and a patient hitter Escobar against left hand pitching seems to make sense to increase Hill getting better chance of hitting the ball. Also if Patterson (or management for the sake of discusson) was able to capitalize on Bautista's presence behind him to increase Patterson's value, it would make sense to benefit Hill to start in Patterson's place given Hill's history of batting performance, even more sense if increasing Hill's value is a priority.

If Hill's options aren't picked up, it's because the Jays think they can do better than him. And right now, they most certainly can.


Given my comments above, it would make sense to agree with the description in the bolded italics.

Ryan Day - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#236541) #
"Continuing to start Rivera against righties is only sapping whatever trade value he even has..."

I can't imagine that makes any difference. Teams can look at his L/R splits, and they'll certainly notice if he's put in a platoon. No one's going to forget how bad he is against right-handed pitchers just because he doesn't face any for a month or two.
Jim - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#236543) #
Everyone knows what Patterson and Rivera are.  You aren't going to trick someone into forgetting that Corey Patterson has a .294 career OBP over 4300 plate appearances in 12 years. Rivera has had one non-terrible season in his last 5.  You aren't going to get anything approaching a real prospect for either of them no matter how much they play between now and the end of July.
The_Game - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#236544) #
"I can't imagine that makes any difference. Teams can look at his L/R splits, and they'll certainly notice if he's put in a platoon. No one's going to forget how bad he is against right-handed pitchers just because he doesn't face any for a month or two."

It's certainly not helping matters to continue putting the player you want to build value with into situations that he can't succeed in, no?

The_Game - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#236545) #
"Everyone knows what Patterson and Rivera are. You aren't going to trick someone into forgetting that Corey Patterson has a .294 career OBP over 4300 plate appearances in 12 years. Rivera has had one non-terrible season in his last 5. You aren't going to get anything approaching a real prospect for either of them no matter how much they play between now and the end of July."

Add E5 in there too, as he's still on the roster despite the fact that he can't hit or field. If this team doesn't care about winning, it's about time they did it with young players instead of veteran scrubs with little-to-no trade value.

I'm OK with keeping Patterson in the lineup as long as he continues to perform, but the Jays should be working to trade him before the inevitable dropoff occurs.
Jonny German - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#236546) #
"Everyone knows what Patterson and Rivera are."

On the one hand I agree. On the other hand, youneverknow. One year ago we all would have laughed at the idea of flipping Sea Bass Gonzalez for a 27-year-old shortstop with All Star upside.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#236549) #
Really hope this rumour about the league scrapping the divisions and having five playoff spots in the AL comes to fruition.

Hey, I think we all know about the extra wildcard for next year (making five playoff spots) but where did you hear about scrapping divisions?
BlueJayWay - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#236550) #
Oof, tough one today.  A sweep looks almost inevitable at this point. 

Despite this start today, I'm still pretty sanguine about Morrow.  Stuff is there, I think it's only a matter of time before he starts dominating again.  The Sox have a stacked lineup and they're hitting on all cylinders.  Even Doc would have trouble with that team right now.
bpoz - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#236552) #
Regarding the position players for 2011 and going forward, I feel the following way.

1) Quite pleased and willing to stay status quo: JPA, Lind, Y Escobar, J Bautista.

2)Reasonably satisfied with R Davis.

3) Need improvements in DH, 2B, 3B. Patterson has exceeded my expectations which was to not make the team or be the 4th OF. So I am grateful to him. However LF is where I want a lot of Offense from, so I must change Patterson.

3B is Lawrie's to mature into.

DH most likely belongs to EE if the 2012 contract is guaranteed. He has time to come around, but not much with Cooper & Thames developing fast. Cooper & Thames are playing everyday at AAA and doing very well. I can see Cooper as a full time DH but Thames should play in the field.

LF should go to Snider, Thames or Loewen. Patterson is not blocking them, it is up to them to play their way back up.

2B is Hill's for now. It looks like his options will not be picked up. AA will figure out something by ST 2012. Maybe only short term.





cybercavalier - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#236554) #
Re bpoz:

1) I would like to see Hill and Patterson flipping their rank in the batting lineup. With Escobar and Bautista, Hill could benefit while batting second. Recalling the season 2009 with Scutaro, Hill and Lind battling 1-2-3, I believe Escobar and Bautista are better than the 2009 forms of Scutaro and Lind. So why can't Hill at least perform in sync to his 2009 season even if Hill and Patterson could be regarded as players of similar calibre. And they aren't similar players.

2) With #1 in mind, the battling lineup could be:

vs LHP:

SS Escobar, 2B Hill, RF Bautista, 1B Lind as top 4. Rivera, EE, Arencibia and Patterson as 5-8, their battling sequence depends on pitcher-batter matchups, stats and other factors. Davis is #9. Nix could be the sub and part-time starter for EE at 3B.
Magpie - Saturday, June 11 2011 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#236559) #
So why can't Hill at least perform in sync to his 2009

Because it was a fluke?

Anyway, there are seldom any up-and-coming second basemen, seldom any hot second base prospects. It's the nature of the position. Most second basemen come up at another position - usually shortstop (Hill, Pedroia, Kinsler, Cano) - and get moved to second base, generally before they reach the majors.
cybercavalier - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 12:16 AM EDT (#236560) #
Thanks Magpie for comment. I mostly agree.

Because it was a fluke?

To answer that, I just use Jonny German's comment: On the one hand I agree. On the other hand, you never know.

Compare:
One year ago we all would have laughed at the idea of flipping Sea Bass Gonzalez for a 27-year-old shortstop with All Star upside.


Now we would all have laughed at the idea of putting Hill at the top of the order.

Is Gonzalez of similar calibre to Hill ? We never know. But it would appear no harm in trying Hill again at battling second, especially when AA's belief of not contending in 2011 is to be taken seriously. Hill appears to fall out of favor for battling at the top of the order, at least not #1-#5.

Of course, all the above assumes no further input of information, for example stats.
92-93 - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 03:04 AM EDT (#236562) #
Adeiny Hechavarria is essentially our 2nd base prospect. Either he'll play it, or he'll force Yunel to move over.
TamRa - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 03:44 AM EDT (#236563) #
Why exactly would the team want to keep a player coming off two awful seasons at any salary?

Simple - lack of better options.

If Hill's options aren't picked up, it's because the Jays think they can do better than him. And right now, they most certainly can.


Not necessarily, one might just as easily say "they don't think what he brings is worth $8 million"

How do i know this?

Because they thought Edwin Encarnacion wasn't worth upwards of $5 million but they brought him back for half that.

They could easily do the same with Hill IF AA doesn't find an option he likes better.
TamRa - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 04:03 AM EDT (#236564) #
also "they most certainly can" is FAR from a given.

If you mean "the most certainly can trade lawrie, Alvarez and d'Arnaud for a better 2B - well yeah.

But if you mean something similar to sane - it's by no means a given.


As for Adeiny, investment aside, it's not in AA's nature to put all his eggs in that basket - particularly given the persistance of the limp bat.

bpoz - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#236565) #
I agree with TamRa that Hill most likely is gone by 2012 due to poor performance & cost.

Anticipating some kind of 2b replacement:

1)I am almost sure you are joking about the trade package you proposed. Your 3 prospects for something very good. My example R Cano of the NYY alone or in a package. IMO AA would not do it because that would cripple his budget, especially if Cano gets injured or under performs.
2) AA seems quite content (IMO) to sacrifice a season 2010 & 2011 so far as he builds his long term contender. Eveland & unproven SPs in 2010 & for 2011 JoJo Reyes & unproven JPA & Drabek.

I and a few others have guessed wrong about AA's preseason preparations for 2011. For 2012, I expect to be wrong again.

My version for 2012 which IMO will be wrong is:

1) AA will reduce payroll, not to save $ but to develop ML ready youth. JPA was deemed pretty much ready & cost less than Buck. Lawrie @ 3B, home grown prospect @ LF & young SPs @ #3,4,5. This should off set raises to Morrow & Litsch. The 2011 pen is deep, successful & expensive. IMO the 2012 pen can cost less & be just as deep and successful. F Francisco, O Dotel & J Rauch are expensive but IMO just OK in performance.

2)IMO our ready youth has to be given ML playing time. So I expect growing pains similar to Drabek, Reyes & Morrow. As SPs they have to succeed against teams that are not the NYY & Bos and then Succeed against stacked lineups of NYY & Bos. Same thing for the pen.

3) After 2012, when experienced our position players have to provide OBP & a running game. Our pitching has to be deep & talented. AA has clearly expressed these as his goals and has worked to acquire & develop those pieces.

But I am probably wrong.
92-93 - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#236573) #
"There has been no discussion of sending Kyle to triple-A." - John Farrell, pre-game scrum.

Well John, there should be. The false bravado doesn't serve any good.
uglyone - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#236575) #
Simple - lack of better options.

there are many, many better options than a player with a sub.700 ops over the previous two seasons. no matter what.

Not necessarily, one might just as easily say "they don't think what he brings is worth $8 million" How do i know this? Because they thought Edwin Encarnacion wasn't worth upwards of $5 million but they brought him back for half that. They could easily do the same with Hill IF AA doesn't find an option he likes better.

EE posted a .781ops last year, 110ops+, and had 21hr in 367ab. He even played passable defense at 3B last year. And AA thought that was worth a $2m/1yr gamble.

Hill is not doing anything remotely close to that.
uglyone - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#236576) #
and by "sub-.700ops" I actually meant "sub-.600ops", of course.

my bad.
uglyone - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#236577) #
Everyone knows what Patterson and Rivera are.

Rivera I agree with, but not with patterson - patterson has built on last year's solid performance (.721ops) with another solid performance this year (.753ops). I think he's earned himself some trade value as a 4th OF who's hitting with speed and defense type.
The_Game - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#236579) #
Lack of better options? At 2B? Have you seen what Aaron Hill has done for the last two years?

The Jays won't have a problem finding a replacement better than him at that position.

TamRa - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#236586) #
All you have to do is look at the stats. YES Hill had an abysmal year in 2010 and has been just ordinary this year (apart from a very deep slump the first two weeks of the season)

But what are the alternatives?

Here's the list ranked by OPS as of this moment:

Kendrick
Weeks
Zobrist
Cano
Kinsler
Phillips
Pedroia
^None of whom are REMOTELY available.

Izturus (.747) - a possibility.
Espinosa (.736) - rookie, they'd have no motivation to deal him but if you overpaid, say with a catching prospect, they might
Johnson (.736) - a free agent at the end of the year, probably the most obvious option.
Sanchez (.730) - just extended, not on the market
Walker (.727) - see Espinosa
Barney and Beckham (both at .668) - are we really going to lust after a guy hitting .668 as our solution? Everyone else is worse.

so basically you can overpay for one of two young guys because they play a desired position - say with d'Arnaud or Jenkins (and in the abstract, i have no problem dealing Jenkins)

Or you can try to get the best of the role-players - Izturus

Or you can sign Johnson who is arguably not all that much better than Hill - either of them could, in theory, give you something in the high 700's in 2012. Either could be a complete bust.



which is to say, there are some theoretical possibilities, some things that might work out - but that's a considerably different statement than "most certainly"

If, for instance, ian Kinsler weere a free agent and all you had to do was throw wads of money at him, sure.  If there were a dustin Ackley coming along behind a guy like Kinsler so that he was an obvious trade candidate, then yeah.

but major league baseball is simply NOT littered with quality first baseman who also happen to be reasonably on the market.

To repeat, I'm not saying there are NO options - frankly, assuming Boston would do it, I'm pretty enthused with the idea of trying to get Lowrie so they can clear the way for Iglasias.

I'm simply saying the options are few enough that one should not be over-confident you are going to do better.
And to be clear, i'm not talking about money here. if you way "We can have Hill next year at a reduced rate of $5 mil or we can have Izturus at $2 mil - thus the latter is the better option" then fine, i won't argue that.

I'm talking about whether the new guy can be reasonable expected to be notably better on the field. THAT list is not as long as you think.

Look at the list of FA middle infielders here:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/03/2012-mlb-free-agents.html

Outside of Reyes and Rollins - good luck asking either to play 2B -  and possibly Johnson, where are the quality hitters (who don't have an option to be picked up)? 2/3 of the non-option guys are 34 or better right now.

Sure you can bring back Marco Scutaro or sign Clint Barmes or Nick Punto - but you won't have BETTER - just cheaper.

it reminds me of our obsession with Eric Hinske a few years ago. Hinske had value, just not as much value as what he was being paid. He's made a nice little career for himself contributing what he's capeable of. for a much more reasonable salary (his OPS+ since 2007 is slightly higher than it was for his time in Toronto) - he's just doing it for a sensible price.

Hill may never be a good hitter again, but the passion to get rid of him has a lot more to do with his contract than his performance. Heck, John McDonald can't hit, jayson Nix can't hit - no one is up in arms (in fact i think a couple would be fine with nix taking over at 2B) - why? Because neither of them are making $5 million.

the only reason I'd worry about the $5 million is if it were keeping us from signing something else we needed - and it's not. so as far as i'm concerned it's monopoly money. I'm interested in whether Nix is a better player on the field than Hill, not how much one makes relative to the other.

TamRa - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#236587) #
and by "sub-.700ops" I actually meant "sub-.600ops", of course.

so you are "correcting" true information to false information?

TamRa - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#236588) #
"There has been no discussion of sending Kyle to triple-A." - John Farrell, pre-game scrum.

Well John, there should be. The false bravado doesn't serve any good.


Seems we heard a lot of that regarding Snider before he was sent down. I think they are waiting now because the obvious option is Mills and they don't want to do that. If Drabek isn't right by the time Litsch heals, all their claims won't keep Drabek up here.

The_Game - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#236589) #
A .604 OPS is ordinary if you're John McDonald. It's not for a guy who expects to keep a starting job at the Major League level.

Hill has a negative 0.2 WAR this season. There won't be any problem finding a player better than that. Heck, if you want only want a quality stopgap option for cheap in 2012, look no further than Marco Scutaro on the Red Sox.
The_Game - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#236590) #
And Hill doesn't even have a contract with this team after this year, so I'm not understanding your theory that people want to get rid of him because of that. This isn't the Vernon Wells situation. Nor is it the Eric Hinske situation (a guy who still carries value as a platoon player, but nothing else).

People want to get rid of Hill because he's been one of the worst 2B in the majors over the last two seasons. There's no reason for the Jays to keep a black hole at 2B for a third straight year, and Hill himself should have no reasonable expectation of being a starter anywhere in 2012 if this keeps up.
TamRa - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#236591) #
If I had to predict what AA will do about 2B, he will not pick up Hill's option, and he'll then offer Hill and Johnson about 2.5 and go with whoever takes it first. if both go elsewhere, he'll try to trade for Izturus. meanwhile he'll have his eye out to score a player like Kipnis (for example) in a trade for some player we can spare lie Carreno or Sierra or Cooper.

Of course, predicting what AA will do is a bit of a mugs games.

Turning from Hill to a somewhat more pleasent subject:

Despite the (surface) inconsistancies of Morrow, I still believe (and thing the team believes) he has ace potential. His FIP is 2.55 after all and even his xFIP is above average.

Romero needs no elaboration.

McGowan could explode at any moment bot for the sake of this post I'm going to assume he makes it back (ala Carpenter)

Drabek WILL eventually get his head together. Lott or Davidi mentioned in an article that McGowan used to have the same emotional problem - putting the two of them next to each other might be a chance for the older guy to help the younger get his head together.

Litsch is looking like he may have trouble holding up through any given season but expecting him to be injured means expecting a door to open for a prospect.

Cecil was probably not a fluke before this year and will eventually be fine.

the Jays don't seem as upset by Stewart's year as a lot of fans are, and Alvarez has the whole system buzzing.

that's not even mentioning Reyes, Villianueva, Zep or Mills.

It's not inconcievable that in 2012, particularly down the stretch, and thereafter the Jays could have as good a rotation as any in baseball.

Just because there are bumps in the road this year doesn't mean that we should be prepared to be heavily disappointed every year. sometimes it does all come together, and when you have 8-10 options to fill out a rotation, and many of them ace-level ability, you have to be a little optimistic - don't you?



Counter argument:

Romero is fine, but Morrow has never pitched a full season, Cecil has fallen apart, McGowan will never be healthy, Litsch can't stay on the field, Reyes can win a ball game, Drabek can't throw a strike, Villianueva is a stopgap, Zep is a reliever, mills can't pitch in the AL East, Alvarez is probably 2 years away, Stewart is struggling
I know all that. i just prefer to believe that out of that group of talented arms, we should be able to but together a rotation to be proud of.


TamRa - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#236592) #
Hill himself should have no reasonable expectation of being a starter anywhere in 2012 if this keeps up.

If I had anything to bet, I'd have every confidence in risking it on the assertion that he WILL be starting for someone next year.

Are you forgetting that on opening day, 2011 players like Ceaser izturus, Clint Barmes, Brenden Ryan, Jack Wilson, and Rony Cedeno had starting jobs?

As we speak Oakland and Cleveland have worse hitters starting at 2B, KC and Florida have players as bad as Hill and with less impressive track records. the Cubs don't have a reasonable option and have a known history of signing bad contracts.
(Uggla is hitting worse than Hill too but he's not gonna be replaced - or stay this bad)

Hudson is hitting only slightly better in S.D. but has a 2 year deal.

Bill hall started the year as a regular in Houston, got released, and found a job within a week in S.F. - hitting just as bad as Hill

the Dodgers are using Aaron-friggin-Miles.

I wouldn't be a BIT surprised to see, for instance, the Royals sign Aaron Hill - or the Dodger is they get their budget is something like sane shape.

(albeit, not for anything over $2-3 million)
cybercavalier - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#236593) #
Wow, lots of comments on Hill.

1) While looking at Hill's minor league stats, he had never posted over .900 OPS above A ball and spent only 2 seasons in AA and AAA combined (1023 PA in minors). Eric Thames has spent 3 seasons in the minors and performed better (1010 PA). Does this comparison suggest that Hill would be better developed if he spent more time in the ceiling of minor leagues (AA and AAA) ? Or in other words, was he rushed a bit due to other factors: less deep minor league during Hill's minor league tenure than now (Thames' tenure) ?

2) While looking at Hill's major league stats,

season age PA     SO/BB  AB/SO   AB/BB=AB/SO*SO/BB    Positions in batting order
2007      25   657   2.49      6.0        14.94                                  mostly 5,6, 7th
2008      26   229   1.94      6.6        12.804                                mostly 2nd
2009      27   734   2.33      7.0        16.31                                  all batting 2nd
2010      28   580   2.07      6.2        12.834                               mostly 2nd and 6th
2011      29   202   2.36      7.2        16.992                               mostly 5th, then 6th, 4th, 7th, 2nd
 
With 657 and 734 PA respectively in 2007 and 2009, the stats of those seasons more proudly describe what kind of hitter Hill is: he could be much affected by his position in the batting order.

Common understandings:

1) The second batter is supposed to strike out much less, but not necessary draw lots of walks: Hill showed that in 2009.
2) While batting in the middle of the order, the batter is supposed to draw more walks than batting second (among various ways of getting on-base and hitting). And Hill showed that in 2007.

However, In 2011, he actually strikes out less than in 2007 while he bats mostly 5th in both seasons. But he draw even less walks in 2011 than in 2007 or in 2009. Which could mean:

1) his performance is going down unprecedentedly. And the reactions are felt in previous posts (quote: Why exactly would the team want to keep a player coming off two awful seasons at any salary? Simple - lack of better options. If Hill's options aren't picked up, it's because the Jays think they can do better than him. And right now, they most certainly can.)

2) No relationship at all between batting order and Hill's stats in strikeout and walk ratios; thus all my above analysis is garbage. Although this option defeat the purpose of my post, it goes against the common knowledge listed above.

3) adjustment(s) are happening; in 2007, his top-ranked wins probability added occured frequently while batting 7th and 6th For base-run added, it occured frequently while Hill batting 7th.

So I think 2 adjustments in 2011 season are beneficial to Hill's performance:

1) Keep Hill at the 7th spot for most starting lineups.

2) Try to put him among the top or middle of the batting order so he could be exposed to more opportunities including drawing walks. The best way to do this is surround him with the best batters of the lineup, namely Escobar, Bautista and Lind. And the best slot to do this with minimal effect to the batting order is batting second. Such move takes Patterson's place. To take advantage of the common understanding of better performance of right handed batter vs left handed pitcher, Hill start second against LH starting pitchers as a trial to see if he could keep up his strikeout lowering and improve performance.

Frankly, if Patterson was able to build on his last season performance or revive his career in T O. Hill could be also able to.
The_Game - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#236594) #
Why are Aaron Hill and Kelly Johnson being compared?  Kelly Johnson is going to be after a muti-year deal around Dan Uggla's 5 year/62M contract if he keeps up his normal level of production for another year. Aaron Hill will be lucky to get a 1 year deal as a starter anywhere after two awful seasons.

I think some here need to realize and deal with the fact that Aaron Hill is not the same hitter he was a few years ago. His approach at the plate is incredibly poor and he's not hitting for any power whatsoever. Sometimes players just lose it...it happens. When it happens, though, there's no reason to stick with such a player for three years running.
Chuck - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#236595) #

Common understandings:

1) The second batter is supposed to strike out much less, but not necessary draw lots of walks: Hill showed that in 2009.
2) While batting in the middle of the order, the batter is supposed to draw more walks than batting second (among various ways of getting on-base and hitting). And Hill showed that in 2007.

I'm not sure how common this line of thinking still is.

Back in the day, the number 2 hitter was invariably a low OBP contact hitter who was a strong bunter. It's not clear that that was a sound strategy back then despite its prevalence. Nowadays, the number 2 hitter is often asked to serve the role of table setter, like the leadoff hitter. And this certainly makes intuitive sense to me. The guys who used to bat 2nd are now, rightfully, batting at the bottom of the order.

ayjackson - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#236597) #
Hill has been a 5 WAR player in two of the last four seasons.  He's been unlucky so far this season.  I'm not certain he'll continue to tank for the rest of the year.  People are overreacting.
The_Game - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#236598) #
I'd love to hear the explanation about how Aaron Hill has been unlucky this season with a .281 wOBA. His BABIP (.272) is actually quite average for a flyball hitter like him.

And why are we cherrypicking stats that happened years in the past? We're nearly at 800 PA of poor performance now. At some point, you have to accept that he's not that same hitter anymore.
Jim - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#236599) #
"There has been no discussion of sending Kyle to triple-A." - John Farrell, pre-game scrum.

It's not a lie if you know the truth? 
ayjackson - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#236600) #

I don't think the last 200 PA's look at all like the previous 600 from a batted-ball perspective, that's why I'd like to wait until the rest of the year until giving up on a proven 5WAR player.   Even if you normalized his HR/FB % and IFH% a bit, he'd have production fairly close to league average.

 

Mike Green - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#236601) #
That might have been the least enjoyable ball game I have ever been to. Jon Lester was good, but I was in no mood to watch a dissection. Each of Jose Bautista's at-bats was a pleasure, but everything else was tedious. And waiting for the Sox to explode against Drabek was no fun at all.

Jim - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#236602) #
In the past 5 years Patterson has been through 5 different organizations (Baltimore twice).  Yes, he's probably put together his best few months since 2003.  He was such a hot commodity coming off of last year's big year that he got a one year deal for less than a million. 

He hasn't appeared for a team that had a winning record in the major leagues since 2004.  He's a 5th outfielder on a second division team.  240 decent plate appearances don't change that. 

What started as a promising group of pennant races is quickly falling apart.  There might not be all that many buyers.  In the American League by July 31st there is a chance there will only be 5-6 teams that even would be in a position to buy, which will deflate the tiny returns anyway since there will be a multitude of sellers.


greenfrog - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#236604) #
On the plus side, the number of teams not in pennant races might give some impetus to the realignment movement...
The_Game - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#236605) #
It makes me laugh to see someone call Aaron Hill a "proven 5 WAR player." I mean, I suppose that makes Corey Patterson a 5 WAR player, too, because he once had a career season at that level.

It's kind of like saying Jose Bautista's had a WAR below 2 in two of the last four seasons, so that's what we should expect from him going forward. That's a largely irrelevant thing to say, though, because we both know that he's a completely different player than he was a few years ago. The same thing applies for Hill, except he's gone the opposite way.

And again, there is absolutely nothing unlucky about what Aaron Hill's done for the last two seasons. He's been a pitiful hitter at the plate and his batted-ball profile doesn't indicate success in the future.
ayjackson - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#236607) #

We're only here to entertain you, Game.  Do brush up on your reading comprehension skills though.

If somebody's done something twice in his life, he's proven he can do it.  I've never said I expect that level in the future, but that it's evidence he can be better than he was last season and is perhaps not the worst second baseman in the majors.

 

The_Game - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#236608) #
We're only here to entertain you, Game. Do brush up on your reading comprehension skills though.

Touchy, are we? If you didn't say such excuse-ridden, apologetic things, there wouldn't be anything to laugh it.

If somebody's done something twice in his life, he's proven he can do it.

And Vernon Wells has proven he can perform at a .900 OPS level twice in his career. That doesn't make it at all relevant to what kind of player he is right now.

I've never said I expect that level in the future, but that it's evidence he can be better than he was last season and is perhaps not the worst second baseman in the majors.

It's only evidence that Aaron Hill used to be a good player. He's not that player anymore. He hasn't been for 800 PA. If this keeps up for another 400 PA (and one would assume it would, he has shown no progress in any area or any kind of change in approach), there is absolutely no reason to bring him back next season.
scottt - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#236611) #
Back in the day, the number 2 hitter was invariably a low OBP contact hitter who was a strong bunter. It's not clear that that was a sound strategy back then despite its prevalence. Nowadays, the number 2 hitter is often asked to serve the role of table setter, like the leadoff hitter. And this certainly makes intuitive sense to me. The guys who used to bat 2nd are now, rightfully, batting at the bottom of the order.

Teams were never batting their worse hitter second. Teams had often only 1 or 2 power bats and the lineup was optimized to put those in the 3-4-5 range. There wasn't that much bunting. There was more hit and runs, more "productive outs". 

Escobar is the Jays ideal #2, but Davis doesn't get on base enough to lead.
TamRa - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#236613) #
Why are Aaron Hill and Kelly Johnson being compared?  Kelly Johnson is going to be after a muti-year deal around Dan Uggla's 5 year/62M contract if he keeps up his normal level of production for another year.

with all due respect, that's an insane expectation (if indeed he has it)

Uglla's career OPS+ coming into this year was 117 and it's never been lower than 108.

Johnsons was 109, and he's been as low as 82 - and it's only 97 this year. In other words, his "normal level of production" is equivilant to Uggla's worst year ever. 3/27 would be a quite generous contract.

He is certainly better positioned than Hill right now, and overall he's apparently a marginally better hitter (albeit with a disturbing peak/valley pattern). but he's not remotely on Uggla's level.




China fan - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#236614) #

.....He's not that player anymore. He hasn't been for 800 PA....

It's actually not at all certain that 800 PA is a fully guaranteed way of predicting the future.  Last year, Adam Lind had 613 terrible plate appearances, but he has bounced back to a .947 OPS this year.  Jose Bautista had 2000 mediocre plate appearances before his breakthrough season in 2010.   You might think that 613 plate appearances or 2000 plate appearances are enough to predict the future, but it turned out that they weren't any guide to the future at all.  Similarly, a lot of people assumed that Travis Snider would have a breakout season in 2011, and a lot of people assumed that Brett Cecil was a proven major-leaguer this year.  Lots of things can change dramatically from year to year.  Things that seem blazingly obvious to us in the pre-season can be proven dead wrong within a few months.  I'm not sure if it's time to dump Aaron Hill, or to assume that he'll never be any use to the Jays again.  I'm kind of glad that I'm not paid the big bucks to make these decisions.  But I've seen enough fans proven wrong to know that I won't assume anything about future results if Farrell and Anthopolous believe that Hill is worth keeping.

scottt - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#236615) #
What started as a promising group of pennant races is quickly falling apart.  There might not be all that many buyers.  In the American League by July 31st there is a chance there will only be 5-6 teams that even would be in a position to buy, which will deflate the tiny returns anyway since there will be a multitude of sellers.

The American League isn't that relevant since the Jays don't usually trade in the division anyway. To me, it looks like any other years. Which team do you see as potential buyer turned seller? 
The_Game - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#236616) #
with all due respect, that's an insane expectation (if indeed he has it)

No, it isn't at all. Kelly Johnson's career OPS+ is 108. Dan Uggla's career OPS+ is 113. Johnson is also two years younger than Uggla and a far better defensive player (Uggla is abysmal defensively, by the way). He'll be asking for at least Uggla's contract if he keeps performing up to his expected level. A 1 year/$2.5M offer to him from the Jays (which I believe you referred to above) would be seen as a joke, I'm sure.
TamRa - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#236617) #
to be clear, when I argue this point I'm NOT saying "Aaron Hill could be great" I'm saying "there's not much out there"

(albeit I'll go ahead and concede that Johnson would be a pretty good get)

My opinion of Hill right now, subject to change, is that he's a .675-.725 hitter (depending on how well the slugging is working for him) who plays above average defense. (in the last 152 PA, his slash rates are .266/.322/.353/.675 and while I think the slugging can range a bit higher, that's pretty much who he is right now)

so when I start looking through wHat's available, I'm pretty much asking "can this guy give you a .750 or better OPS with at least average D?"

If the answer to that is "I'm not sure" or "no" then I don't bother to persue him unless Hill signs elsewhere.


The_Game - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#236618) #
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/when-samples-become-reliable/

We're way past the point of this just being a small sample size with Aaron Hill. He's a bad hitter, and he's been a bad hitter for a long while now. There's obviously no reason to dump Hill right now (you might as well give him the entirety of this hopeless season to prove whether he has anything left), but a resurgence shouldn't be anybody's expectation and the Jays should be preparing to move on without him.
TamRa - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#236619) #
No, it isn't at all. Kelly Johnson's career OPS+ is 108. Dan Uggla's career OPS+ is 113.

Uggla was at 117 when the deal was signed. More importantly, 123 over his previous three seasons (Johnson's was almost exactly the same as his career number coming into 2011)

I will concede however that my initial comment on Johnson was way too low - something more like 3/24 should be pretty obtainable.

The_Game - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#236620) #
Hill did not manage a .700 OPS in 2008, 2010, or 2011 (to this point), btw. And he hasn't performed at a good level in 800 PA, unfortunately.

The Jays can very easily find better than that, and one would hope that they would (assuming they're actually planning on contending in 2012).

The_Game - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#236622) #
Uggla was at 117 when the deal was signed. More importantly, 123 over his previous three seasons (Johnson's was almost exactly the same as his career number coming into 2011) I will concede however that my initial comment on Johnson was way too low - something more like 3/24 should be pretty obtainable.

Offensively, it's still not a huge edge. You seem to be ignoring the fact that Johnson is both younger and a far superior defensive player. He'll get far more than 3/24, as he should.
Jim - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#236625) #
The American League isn't that relevant since the Jays don't usually trade in the division anyway. To me, it looks like any other years. Which team do you see as potential buyer turned seller?


I fully expect the AL West to be close to over by July 31st.  The White Sox need to get things going to make a race in the Central.  Can Tampa stick with New York and Boston?  Maybe.  That's about it.  In the AL I expect there to be a max of 6 buyers - Texas, New York, Boston, Chicago, Detroit and Tampa.

The NL might have some races.  Atlanta should stick around, St. Louis, Cincinnati and Milwaukee will be in the mix.  The question is the West... Can Arizona keep playing decently and can SF overcome all the injuries.  You could end up with Atlanta, Phili, St. Louis, Cinci, Milwaukee, Arizona, Colorado and San Fran.  Somewhere around a mix of 15 buyers and 15 sellers. 

4th and 5th outfielders are a dime a dozen.  The player they might be able to get something for is Molina - there isn't a catcher to be found anywhere.The state of catching the major leagues is frightening. 
ayjackson - Sunday, June 12 2011 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#236631) #
Touchy, are we? If you didn't say such excuse-ridden, apologetic things, there wouldn't be anything to laugh it.

I think most around here deserve a little more respect than that.  You might find DJF more fitting to your style.
cybercavalier - Monday, June 13 2011 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#236642) #
Thanks Chuck. I learn more today. Frankly, Getting on-base is emphasized more than in the past and has been the trend nowadays. But shall the Jays follow this trend ? I am inclined to take the situation in these 3 ways:

1) Escobar is the Jays ideal #2; I agree with that. But since the Jays decide to put him leading off and Patterson batting second, Hill could also bat second vs left handed starting pitching.

2) Be creative with the lineup. Escobar, Bautista, Lind as the regular 2-3-4 batter. The other batters round out the lineup; say if Molina is the starting C and Davis is considered not getting on base enough, could Molina be the lead-off? Against some left handed starting pitching, serve Lind as the DH, Rivera as the 1B-man, rotating McCoy or Molina to leadoff. Note: I am not against JohnnyMac, but he is basically the prototype of WYSIWYG (defense, some hitting, helping out in clubhouse, a fans favorite etc.) to be relied upon.

3) Be creative with adjustment on Davis, Hill and EE. They for various reasons fall short of expectations: can`t lead off due to not getting on-base enough, can`t field even though the bat strength is there etc..

cybercavalier - Monday, June 13 2011 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#236645) #
O, I forgot several lines for points #2.

See Bass Gonzalez was chipping in at various slots before traded to the Braves, could Patterson be treated similarly ? Even if Patterson may not be traded in 2011, the team at least figures out what value Patterson contributes. Is he a trading chip only ? or a keeper as a backup #4 outfielder, in case Thames et al. would be showing growing pains in major league.

The_Game - Monday, June 13 2011 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#236664) #

I think most around here deserve a little more respect than that.

When you say something worth respecting, you'll get respect from me. If you say something that is so apologetic that it makes me laugh, I'm not going to shy away from saying so.

 You might find DJF more fitting to your style.

This from the guy, who rather than attacking my argument, chose to make a quip about my reading comprehension skills out of frustration. Might want to take your own advice there.

Mick Doherty - Monday, June 13 2011 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#236671) #

Guys! (both of you) C'mon ... Da Box is generally recognized as an online venue for civil banter and polite disagreement. Those who forget that  -- they are regrettably dismissed. (I am not for a moment suggesting either of you are near that point; it's only happened twice I can think of in almost ten years.)

Seriously,everyone -- and I have had to learn this the hard way myself in the past -- if you're responding to something that personally hacks you off, before you even hit the "Preview" button, go away for a few hours, come back and see if you don't realize "not worth it ...."

If you want to mildly and amusingly  insult someone for insisting John McDonald should DH and hit third, fine. Otherwise, take a step back, take a breath, take a new path.

Thank you,
Mgmt.

 

Hodgie - Monday, June 13 2011 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#236684) #
If you want to mildly and amusingly insult someone for insisting John McDonald should DH and hit third, fine.

Et tu Brute? First John Lackey and now Mick. What a brute part to kill so capital a fellow.

Mick Doherty - Monday, June 13 2011 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#236685) #

:-)

Fair enough, Hodgie, and bonus points for the Shakespearean reference.

But I'd love to see the fallout on this site, much less the other, far-less-civilized, online venuses if  the Blud Jays rolled out a lineup with 3. McDonald, 3B sketched in place!

uglyone - Monday, June 13 2011 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#236686) #
anyone who is talking about offering Hill a similar contract as Kelly Johnson this offseason, really, REALLY needs to re-calibrate their valuations of each player.
Chuck - Monday, June 13 2011 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#236688) #

Teams were never batting their worse hitter second... There wasn't that much bunting.

I'm thinking you may be too young to remember the 70s and earlier. Larry Bowa, Tim Foli, Frank Taveras, Rodney Scott...

The 1961 Yankees are a particularly interesting case. Batting ahead of Maris and Mantle, guys who hit 115 homeruns, were Richardson (295 OBP) and Kubek (306 OBP). They combined for 164 runs scored. Why were they batting 1-2? Because they were middle infielders and faster than Skowron and Berra and Howard and Blanchard. Hell, they each recorded 10 sacrifice bunts despite Maris and Mantle being equally likely to get an extra-base hit as a single. Why did they bunt? Because that's what you did, damn it. That's what the book said and when you play in sepia-hued times, that's what you do.

Chuck - Monday, June 13 2011 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#236689) #

Escobar is the Jays ideal #2; I agree with that.

He's also their ideal #1 hitter. His 360 OBP certainly has to trump his inability to steal bases. Unfortunately, the team has no other on-base beast to occupy the other of the top 2 slots.

uglyone - Monday, June 13 2011 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#236693) #
Lawrie, Brett
scottt - Tuesday, June 14 2011 @ 07:14 AM EDT (#236714) #
10 sacrifice bunts doesn't seem like that many. It's not quite NL pitcher territory.
Thomas - Tuesday, June 14 2011 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#236716) #
The player they might be able to get something for is Molina - there isn't a catcher to be found anywhere.The state of catching the major leagues is frightening.

I don't tend to include Molina among Toronto's tradeable assets, but I think that's a good point. Many backup catchers leave a lot to be desired.

92-93 - Tuesday, June 14 2011 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#236718) #
Jose Molina is currently a Type B who you would have no fear offering arbitration to. He's got a lot more value than one would imagine.
bpoz - Tuesday, June 14 2011 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#236724) #
How did J Molina earn the Type B status ? This year or last year performance. And you don't have to be afraid of Arb over-payment if he accepts.

How about some of our relievers. Camp; is he doing well enough to get a B. Dotel, Rauch & Francisco are they doing badly enough to lose their B status & Francisco $4mil may not be attractive.

Thanks
92-93 - Tuesday, June 14 2011 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#236725) #
bpoz - Wednesday, June 15 2011 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#236809) #
Thanks 92-93. That was very helpful.
ayjackson - Wednesday, June 15 2011 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#236839) #

Guys! (both of you) C'mon

My apologies.  I shouldn't have take offense and generally respect The_Game's opinion.

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