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The affiliates did well on a night that featured a ton of doubles for a couple of the teams.


Las Vegas 10 at Colorado Springs 5

Jesse Litsch was just okay but Las Vegas managed to cruise to victory anyway. LItsch went 7 innings and allowed 4 runs, on 5 hits and 3 walks, striking out 6. The 51s scored 2 in the first and fourth and four in the second, and that was all she wrote. Brett Lawrie was 3 for 5 with a double, David Cooper 2 for 4 with a double and a walk, and Danny Perales and Jayson Nix were both 3 for 5 with 2 doubles. Darin Mastroianni singled and walked twice while Brian Jeroloman singled twice.

Reading 3 at New Hampshire 4

This one became close in the 9th, where Reading did all their scoring. Clint Everts walked the leadoff batter and was replaced by Evan Crawford, who promptly gave up a double, single and double to bring the Jr. Phillies within one with a runner on second and none out. Bobby Korecky came on though and shut the door. He gave up a bunt single, but the Cats got the runner at the plate on a ground ball and then two consecutive fly balls to end the game. Henderson Alvarez was the starter in this one and he was pretty good, tossing seven scoreless innings, allowing 5 hits while striking out four and walking none. He also got 11 of 15 outs in play on the ground. Alvarez is just 21, and in 69.1 AA innings has a K/BB of 48/14 and an ERA of 2.86.

Meanwhile on the offensive side of things, Callix Crabbe, Moises Sierra and Mike McDade all had 2 hits, with Sierra and Crabbe both hitting dingers. Adeiny Hechavarria singled and walked, while Anthony Gose singled and was caught stealing and Travis d'Arnaud went 0 for 4 and struck out twice.

Fort Myers 6 at Dunedin 5


This one was tied after six and eight, but Fort Myers scored twice in the 9th on a leadoff triple and two out single, and Dunedin could only muster 1, leaving a runner on third to end the game.  Sean Ochinko went 3/5 with 2 doubles, Kevin Ahrens 2 for 3 with 2 walks and a double, and Chris Hopkins 2/4 with 2 doubles. Dustin McGowan wasn't scored upon in his 2.1 innings, striking out 4 batters, though he did walk 2 and give up 2 hits. Ryan Tepera did most of the pitching, but got dinged for 4 runs on 5 hits in 5.1 innings, with a 3/1 K/BB.

Wisconsin 5 at Lansing 6 (12 innings)


Well I guess that's what you get for coming out against unions. But seriously, Wisconsin opened for four in the first against Sean Nolin, who would pitch another 4.2 scoreless innings, allowing a total of 6 hits against no walks and 5 strikeouts in his total of 5.2 innings. Michael Crouse was 3 for 5 and scored twice, and one of the hits was a two run home run. He also stole 3 bases. So, yeah. Carlos Perez singled and walked twice, and no other Lugnut did anything especially memorable. In his last 10 games Perez is reaching at a .408 clip but has only two XBH, both doubles.

Eugene 11 at Vancouver 6

This was just an old fashioned beatdown, as Jesse Hernandez (7 ER in 4 IP) and Shane Davis (4 ER in 1.1 IP) were both knocked around. Jonathan Jones, Nicholas Baligod, Stephen McQuail, Shane Opitz and Pierce Rankin all had 2 hits for the Canadians.

Burlington 5 at Bluefield 16

The B-Jays led 16-0 after 5, which mostly puts a damper on things for the other team, which nevertheless managed to tack on a 5 spot in the 7th. This was after Myles Jaye left, so Jaye's line was 5 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K, 0 R. Unfortunately from a rooting perspective, Aaron Sanchez was the guy to come in next, and he got lit up for all 5 of those runs, in 1.2 innings, during which time he managed to give up 3 hits and walk 4. Offensively Andy Fermin led the way with 4 hits including a home run, while Kevin Pilar, Matt Johnson and Aaron Munoz all had 2 hits, with Johnson homering and stealing. Gustavo Pierre also singled and walked twice and scored 4 runs.

GCL Jays 6 at GCL Braves 7

DSL Jays 4 at DSL Braves 10

3 Stars!
3rd Star! Andy Fermin - 4/5, HR, 3 R, 2 RBI
2nd Star! Michael Crouse - 3/5, HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, 3 SB
1st Star! Henderson Alvearez - 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 4 K.
Wins and Doubles | 29 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Gerry - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#238999) #

In the Fisher Cats game the play at the plate in the ninth was reportedly another webgem from Hech.

Kevin Gray has post game audio here, starting with Sal Fasano talking about Hech, followed by Fasano and Pete Walker talking about Alvarez, followed by Alvarez himself and d'Arnaud, all talking about Alvarez.

Charlie - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#239005) #
With the trade deadline approaching Edwin Encarnacion has started to hit consistently and with power. Always a streaky player it seems like this might create the best chance for the Jays to try to get anything for him. On the other hand, Lawrie's imminent arrival at 3B and the need to provide AB's for young players makes him useless within less than two weeks. Other teams must know AA would love to deal EE for anything.

What teams do you think might be interested? And, at what price?

- Pittsburgh: it seems like they want to do something to capitalize on their surging fortunes. Adding EE could give them some power at 3B and at a price they could afford. Hmmm, maybe they've got another journeyman outfielder we could snag ...

- Milwaukee: his acquisition could light a fire under the lacklustre Casey McGhee and placate the fans who want another postseason appearance while Prince Fielder is still around. Unfortunately their farm system doesn't offer much but, assuming we did some serious scouting before dealing Marcum we must know what there is up and down.

- Philadelphia: they've gotten 5 HRs out of third base all year. Polanco's got back problems (never a good sign for a player of his vintage). Again, we must know their farm system quite well.

Thoughts? Would EE fetch anything right now?
jgadfly - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#239006) #
Thanks Gerry ... I didn't realize that there was a difference between "major" and "minor" league baseballs ... Alvarez' consistency is starting to match up with his potential ... Same with d'Arnaud & Hechavarria ... great !
Ryan Day - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#239007) #
Would a contending team be willing to put Encarnacion at third base every day? That seems unlikely, since even the Jays have been reluctant to play him there regularly. If teams don't like his glove, that limits him to DH or a bench role, which probably isn't worth a whole lot in a trade.

Unless he has another one of those insane series, like when he totally dismantled the Twins last September, I don't think most teams would give up much for him. It could be better to hang on to him and either retain him for next year, or decline his option and try to pick up a draft pick.

uglyone - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#239009) #
not sure where to put this, but....

....McCoy > Hill.
Ishai - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#239018) #
The Pirates might want to play Edwin at 1B, since his bat is superior to a certain ex-Blue Jay from whom they are getting minimal production.
stevieboy22 - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#239019) #
McCoy > Hill

That actually leaves some good questions about what to do at second base....
Is Hill at point where you give up on him?
Are we getting near the point where it might make sense to let McCoy play 3 times a week and see if he can produce at this level? Or is it a given McCoy can't play everyday?
Should AA be looking for a project to give a shot at second base for the rest of the season?
And then the obvious, is AA gonna sell a good chunk of the farm for a Hanley? I say offer a big package giving up anyone but  D'Arnaud or Lawrie, perhaps Drabek, Hechavarria, Gose, Knecht, Litsch and Mills catch their eye?

stevieboy22 - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#239020) #
The Pirates might want to play Edwin at 1B, since his bat is superior to a certain ex-Blue Jay from whom they are getting minimal production.

But if Edwin takes over at first for Lyle, how will Lyle save Edwin from 87 errors this season? - Mike Wilner
Mike Green - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#239021) #
If McCoy is better than Hill, Jose Molina is way, way better than J.P. Arencibia. Speaking of which, not only is McCoy better than Hill, he has an extra year of life experience which surely counts for something. And he's got frequent flyer miles coming out the yin-yang.

Cynicalguy - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#239023) #

EE is getting close to type B free agent, and Hill is type A currently, so both would be get playing time for the rest of the year.  If they can squeeze out a compensation pick out of EE, that would be way more than they would get back in a trade....yes assuming he declines arb and someone signs him to a major league contract. 

And getting players like Hanley is not AA's style, he likes to get players before they breakout and become superstars, and sign them to team friendly deals...which means no Pujols, Fielder and no Darvish.

Chuck - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#239024) #

And he's got frequent flyer miles coming out the yin-yang.

Suppose he'll use them in the off-season to fly to Vegas? Nah, me neither.

 

bpoz - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#239026) #
Sometimes you are happy that you could not trade a player.

Did not EE just steal some bases. I have faith in him, he can still hit 20 Hr. He has had a rough year by being used where he was not expected to and the constant errors had to deflate his spirit.

Someone posted a lineup that can be utilized right now. Esobar, Thames, Bautista, Lind, EE, Snider, JPA, Hill & Davis. This looks good to me and can be completed when Lawrie comes up, with Davis becoming the 4th OF & Baustia going to the OF. Thames & Snider's play have earned them ABs. I hope that Thames, Snider & Lawrie can get to a consistently productive state by 2013 which will compliment Escobar, Lind & Bautista. I don't know how consistent JPA will become but IMO he will have hot streaks. So I can see us having a strong & deep offense in 2013, with the likes of McDade, d'Arnaud & Sierra helping out a bit.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#239028) #
Nestor Molina had a no-hitter, and a 3-0 lead through 5 innings. He must be on a tight pitch count because he was pulled, and in the sixth Aaron Loup gave up the no-hitter, the shutout and the lead.
hypobole - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 11:51 PM EDT (#239029) #
Not to be outdone, Justin Nicolino also threw 5 no hit innings for Vancouver before his night was done, including 9 K's. A solitary walk was his only blemish.
Shaker - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#239031) #

EE has a pretty team friendly option for 2012 at $3.5M.  Given that we have a bunch of young LHB from AAA (Thames, Snider, Cooper, Loewen) ready to compete/rotate in 2012, I would think AA would exercise the EE option as a nice platoon/complement to the young guys breaking in to the majors.  League average production for league average expense.

As for 2B, there's not much in the FA pool, so barring a Reyes signing (as if) or nice trade (Hanley, Uggla, Prado?) we'd be looking at Kelly Johnson or Adam Kennedy, if a Hill deal can't be "restructured".  Would AA offer a $4-5M deal to Hill with a $8M option for 2013?  Would Hill accept that?

BalzacChieftain - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#239032) #
Hill's one of the worst regulars in the league over the past 2 seasons. I don't think he will have a whole lot of bargaining power when AA declines his options at the end of the year. The deal you are suggesting seems preposterous when one considers that a recently signed Escobar, who provides value, would be making a comparable amount of money to a newly signed Hill.
ayjackson - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#239033) #

Hill`s one of my leading candidate to be moved at the deadline.  He needs a change of scenery and coaching and I think there`ll be a team that thinks they can turn him around.

I think EE will also be dealt.  Teams are looking for RH bats and EE is a cheap and (steaky) good one.

bpoz - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#239034) #
My choice is that Hill has the rest of the season to prove if he is better than we have seen in 2010 & so far in 2011. If he cannot improve, then AA should decline the options and not even try to sign him to a low $ contract. Hill needs a new start with a new team to reestablish himself.

I would accept a utility player like Scuttoro or a FA like A Gonzales that is cheap & temporary until something comes along. Our surplus pitching can be used to trade for infield prospects to add to our own infield prospects. Eventually someone will good will show up.
Lylemcr - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#239035) #

I have been really impressed with the Jays offense lately.  This weekend will be a good test for them.

They are sitting at the same record as last year.  Not bad, they shedded some payroll, traded thier #1 starter for a future 3b and had issues with the bullpen.  As many issues as they have had this year, it kind of makes you feel that they could have a decent year this year.  If they can get the bullpen issues sorted out and maybe one more starter starts pitching to last years potential, they could have a really good year.  I am not saying playoffs, but sniffing it out maybe....

Mike Green - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#239036) #
EE is a cheap and (steaky) good one

..personally I thought that he was more rib roasty.
sam - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#239037) #
I know people here are casually assuming a lot of free agents with "b" status will reject arbitration, but I just don't see it with any of them.
Chuck - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#239038) #

If they can get the bullpen issues sorted out and maybe one more starter

If I only had balls, said the queen, I'd be king.

BlueJayWay - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#239041) #
Hill`s one of my leading candidate to be moved at the deadline.  He needs a change of scenery and coaching and I think there`ll be a team that thinks they can turn him around.

I agree.  Hill is still young-ish, and has enough past success that I could see some team thinking "we can fix him."  He might be the classic change of scenery guy.
Ryan Day - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#239044) #
I agree there will be at least a few teams who think they can fix Hill, but I don't know if you'd get much for him. Barring a big resurgence in the second half, the Jays won't pick up his options, and even offering him arbitration might be doubtful - if he's still an A, no one will give up a draft pick for him, and it's doubtful he'd get another $5 million contract on the open market. So how much would a team be willing to give up mid-season to get a reclamation project who's likely to be a free agent in a few months?

(It wouldn't surprise me to see the Jays decline the options, then try to sign Hill to one-year-plus-option type deal, unless another strong candidate for second appears.)

Shaker - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#239048) #

Aren't our starting pitching issues much graver than our bullpen issues?

We are 25th in mlb in ERA, WHIP, OPS against, K:BB, etc in starting pitching, yet are average or slightly above in relief stats.  Our bullpen is adequate (though obviously lacking a stopper) yet our rotation is held together by twine.

I mean, I know we WANT Drabek and Morrow and Zach to be awesome, but so far their career stats do not show that, yet.  On the other hand, the body of work of Frasor, Camp, Janssen, Dotel, Rauch etc shows a pattern of adequacy or better.



Matthew E - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#239051) #
Aren't our starting pitching issues much graver than our bullpen issues? [...] I mean, I know we WANT Drabek and Morrow and Zach to be awesome, but so far their career stats do not show that, yet.

Right, but that doesn't mean there's a starting pitching issue. Maybe these guys aren't good enough yet, but there's a plan in place: take this young starting pitching and develop it. It's not something that needs to be fixed via trades or signings. They already have, probably, the right guys.
AK - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#239052) #
I agree. Hill is still young-ish, and has enough past success that I could see some team thinking "we can fix him." He might be the classic change of scenery guy.

I'm not sure that he needs to be fixed, or needs a change of scenery.

Hill's batted ball data is almost identical to his 2009 season, except his 2011 BABIP is .256 rather than .288 and his 2011 HR/FB is 3.5% rather than 14.9%.

Average HR/FB is usually 10.6% (although this year Derrek Lee is right in the middle of qualified players and he's at 10.0%) , and according to the HBT xBABIP calculator Hill's BABIP should be .306 rather than .256. If Hill was simply not unlucky, you're talking about an above average second baseman (something like 290/330/450) rather than the terrible one he's been thus far this year.

Mike Green - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#239053) #
HR/FB rates do tend to centralize over a pitcher's career, but not for a position player.  Jim Thome can be expected to have a much higher HR/FB rate than Rajai Davis each and every year.  Aaron Hill's seasonal HR/FB rate has had greater fluctuation than most players.
smcs - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#239055) #
Aren't our starting pitching issues much graver than our bullpen issues?

Well, one problem sort of flows into the other. The Jays starting pitchers have averaged 5.9 IP/GS, good for 3rd last in the AL. Average is 6.2, Best is 6.6 (SEA) and worst is 5.4 (BAL, a real outlier). The removal of Kyle Drabek and his 5.2 IP/GS has probably helped, but the only starter going more than the league average of 6.2 IP/GS is Ricky Romero, at 6.7. In 99 games, the starters have 5 complete games, 11 times where the starter left the game in line for the win, but the bullpen blew it (doesn't mean team lost) and 11 times where the starter left the game in line for the loss, but the Jays came back to tie it or take the lead (doesn't mean the Jays won). The starters have also bequeathed 171 runners to the bullpen (most in the AL), with 41 scoring. Overall, the bullpen has allowed 23% of inherited runners to score (41-175), good for 2nd best in the AL. Rauch and Francisco have been very good at this. Janssen was sitting at 25% (3-12) before yesterday, but is now at 40% (6-15).

The Jays have played 99 games thus far, and the relievers have combined for 308 relief appearances, which is more per game than years past. No single reliever is being used significantly more than anyone else (although Luis Perez does lead the league in 4.4 outs per relief appearance). Frasor, Camp, Rzepcyznski and Rauch have appeared in 43, 42, 42 and 41 games respectively. Dotel, Francisco and Janssen have all spent time on the DL, but have appeared in 34, 32 and 30 games respectively. The only reliever with more than 1.0 IP/G is Perez, with Rauch sitting at 41 IP in 41 G. The bullpen is decent, but it just gets used a lot. Nobody has stepped clearly in front of anybody else, each reliever at times looking good and at times looking bad, which has led, I think, to the curious usage patterns by Farrell. He goes into each game with a plan, just the plan seems to change from game to game.
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