Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Vancouver Just Miss the Playoffs

Vancouver won eleven games in a row down the stretch. They were 9-1 in their last ten games. They had the second best first half record in franchise history. But they missed out on the playoffs. Everett finished by winning six straight games, they were 8-2 in their last ten and they held the tie-break over Vancouver as both teams were tied.

Elsewhere Dunedin won while the big boys at the top of the system lost.

Buffalo 4 Worcester 9

Somerset 5 New Hampshire 1

Vancouver 9 Eugene 5

Dunedin 7 Clearwater 2

FCL Tigers 11 FCL Blue Jays 5

Three Stars

Third Star - Austin Cates

Second Star - Carter Cunningham

First Star - Peyton Powell

Boxes

NOTES

It was a tough night for Buffalo pitchers. Anders Tolhurst was the starter, he gave up four runs. Ryan Jennings was charged with a run in relief. Jennings has a 1.70 WHIP in AAA, partly due to a high walk rate (7 in 12 innings). But on the positive side he has 18 K's in 12 innings.

Joey Loperfido had two hits, the only Bison with two. Loperfido has been hanging in with decent, but not great numbers. He is 26 already. Orelvis had an oh-fer and his BA is back under .200. If he doesn't show some life soon he will drop off prospect lists. Yohendrick Pinango hasn't figured out AAA yet, he is hitting .211.

NH had just three hits, all singles. Grant Rogers did OK, he went six innings and struck out seven. He only gave up one earned run.

Vancouver came from behind to win 9-5. Carter Cunningham had a big night. He hit a two run home run in the sixth inning to give the C's the lead. He also singled twice. Aaron Parker also homered and doubled. Jevon Ward singled and doubled and drove in three. Arjun Nimmala was 1-4 with two walks.

Chris McElvain started but couldn't get through three innings. He was charged with five runs.

Peyton Powell had a big game for Dunedin, single, double, home run, three RBI. Austin Coates had five shutout innings with seven K's. Cates hasn't given up ore than one run in an appearance since May 6th.

In the FCL there are no hitters who are really dominating. Drew Jemison has the best numbers but he is 24. David Beckles is next but he is a 21 year old first baseman. Yorman Licourt is also 21 but at least he plays the outfield.

Posted by Gerry on Friday, June 20 2025 @ 07:03 AM EDT.

Vancouver Just Miss the Playoffs | 39 comments | Create New Account

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greenfrog - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#461960) #

People used to debate which SP prospect had the best chance of panning out: Syndergaard, Sanchez or Nicolino. (Syndergaard ended up being the best, but his career was cut short by injuries.)

I wonder if we’ll see a similar debate around Yesavage, Stephen, and King (and maybe Stanifer). Yesavage has the pedigree, but the others have had very good 2025 seasons as well.

greenfrog - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#461961) #

Jim Bowden of the Athletic has proposed one trade for each AL East team. His suggested trade for Toronto is “Acquire RHP Merrill Kelly from Diamondbacks for LHP Kendry Rojas and 2B Sam Shaw.”

That seems like a reasonable trade proposal. But I think the Blue Jays will have to give up more for Kelly, given the current demand across MLB for quality starting pitching.

mendocino - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#461962) #

MLB's weekly mock draft

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-mock-draft-for-june-19-2025?t=mlb-draft-coverage

This is how Callis and Mayo see Round 1 shaking out:

1. Nationals: Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater (Okla.) HS (No. 1)
He's been No. 1 on our Draft list for some time now and still has the best chance at going No. 1 overall to the Nationals.

2. Angels: Kade Anderson, LHP, Louisiana State (No. 3)
If it isn't Holliday, Anderson has the best chance at going No. 1.

3. Mariners: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State (No. 6)
4. Rockies: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State (No. 4)
5. Cardinals: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton (Okla.) HS (No. 5)
6. Pirates: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona (Calif.) HS (No. 2)
7. Marlins: Billy Carlson, SS, Corona (Calif.) HS (No. 7)

8. Blue Jays: Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee (No. 9)
Doyle's gone as high as No. 2 in our previous mocks, but his stock is down slightly. The Blue Jays go for a guy that two, three weeks ago they didn't expect being here.

9. Reds: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma (No. 8)

10. White Sox: JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis (Miss.) HS (No. 10)
Parker's name is buzzy. He's been talked about as high as No. 2.

15. Red Sox: Ike Irish, OF/C, Auburn (No. 21)
Boston can stick Irish in the outfield and let his athleticism and bat play.

Marc Hulet - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#461963) #

I wouldn't trade the Jays 2nd best arm for a No. 4 starter who's about to be a FA and 36 years old. If everyone's healthy, he likely doesn't start in the playoffs.

Shaw, ok he doesn’t really have a defensive home, and maybe Khal Stephen... but even then it's a lot for what you're getting. The Jays already have a couple No. 4 starters and a No. 3 at the top of their rotation.

That's the problem: the Jays already have a bunch of starters that are getting old and have limited ceilings.

Glevin - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#461964) #

"Jim Bowden of the Athletic has proposed one trade for each AL East team. His suggested trade for Toronto is “Acquire RHP Merrill Kelly from Diamondbacks for LHP Kendry Rojas and 2B Sam Shaw.”

That seems like a reasonable trade proposal. But I think the Blue Jays will have to give up more for Kelly, given the current demand across MLB for quality starting pitching."

Not much interest in this kind of trade. Jays don't need rental pitching depth, they need a front-line starter or someone with that potential or at least someone under team control. I'd have WAY more interest in someone like Edward Cabrera who is a decent starter but not a free agent until 2029 and has the stuff to be a potential frontline starter. Give me Peralta for a year and a half.

greenfrog - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#461965) #

for a No. 4 starter who's about to be a FA and 36 years old

Kelly has performed better than any of the Blue Jays starting pitchers in 2025. The team would be able to confidently use him in a WC or postseason series.

Mike Green - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#461966) #

Kelly has been a very good pitcher over the last 4 years. I don't know how exactly he has done it; it seems to be about suppressing BABIP which does seem difficult to do over the long-term but 4 years is a long time. He has gone 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA over 4 post-season starts.

He isn't a conventional ace, but I think #4 starter is underselling him.

mendocino - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#461967) #

Shi Davidi

"Hard-hitting prospect Orelvis Martinez, also with the Bisons, has started taking groundballs at first base to explore another possible pathway for him to the roster, if his bat locks in."

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-crowded-outfield-an-area-of-intrigue-as-trade-deadline-looms/

Mike Green - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#461968) #

It's a good move. It may be that Martinez' defensive challenges have affected his ability to progress with the bat. It isn't that common for a shortstop at age 19 to be a fine-hitting DH/1B at age 25-26, but it's as good a bet as any with him.

greenfrog - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#461969) #

Kelly is on pace for around 4 WAR, 3.41 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 3.23 xFIP, 170-180 IP, 8.9 K/9 and 2.28 BB/9.

Those are closer to #2 SP numbers than they are to #4 SP numbers.

uglyone - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#461970) #

Looking at this last few years i'd be comfortable assuming Kelly should put up around a 90era-/fip-/xfip- in solid but not huge innnigs (i.e. around 5.75ip per start).

what was his injury last year though?

interestingly he probably doesn't project much better than Kikuchi did at the deadline last year, though obviously he's had a much more consistent track record.

Glevin - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#461971) #

Past performance doesn't predict future performance and Kelly is not the kind of guy I am going to bet on leading my team to the World Series. Just like Jose Soriano, David Peterson, Tyler Mahle, or Chris Bassit .Kelly doesn't strike out guys and gives up a lot of hard contact. Maybe he continues to find a way to maintain a 2.53 BABIP but I doubt it. If he were younger and under contract for a couple of years, fine, there's value there but giving up top prospects to go from like 3% chance of winning the WS to a 3.4% chance or something is just not worth it. Jays shouldn't be looking for rentals to begin with unless they are cheap.

greenfrog - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#461972) #

I would love to go get an ace like Skenes, but given that this is a remote possibility, I would be happy to see the Blue Jays go get a very solid SP rental like Kelly at a reasonable cost. With the team's strong defense and improving offense, Kelly could help the team perform well in the postseason. Remember, the team hasn't won a single postseason game under Atkins (apart from the Anthopoulos-constructed 2016 team). Even advancing one round would be an achievement. And pitchers get hurt all the time -- having another good SP in the rotation, and temporarily bumping someone like Lauer to #6 status, would not be a bad thing.

I think I would rather go get a good consistent high-performing arm like Kelly, rather than a high-variance big arm like Alcantara, at this point anyway.

uglyone - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#461973) #

I mean we absolutely should be in the market for rentals. Why wouldn't we be?

I'd hope that we'd try to take more advantage of our glut of decent near-MLB ready talent as trade assets instead of our younger higher ceiling guys, though. i.e. last year's deadline in reverse.

SK in NJ - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#461974) #

The Jays really need a front line starter. They have three #3-4 starters, one former ace who if healthy is probably closer to #4-5 now, and then piecing together the #5 spot with #5/depth starters. Adding another #3-4 isn't going to be a difference making move. I don't think Kelly as a rental would be a bad move necessarily, just not one that raises the ceiling of this team. Tough spot to be in. The Jays system is finally looking to be on the upswing again, so not sure the FO (even if they are fighting for their jobs) would be willing to halt that momentum. AA had one foot out the door in 2015 so he didn't care who he traded, but Shapiro could conceivably come back (if he hasn't been quietly extended already) so he might have some incentive for risk aversion.

Gerry - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#461975) #

From Geoff Pontes at BA:

Is there concern with Landen Maroudis? He was sitting 88-90 his last start, way down from last year.

GP: Absolutely, the feedback wasn’t great in the last rounds of reporting. It feels like he’s still struggling to recover from the surgery. He’s so young and it’s so early, it’s probably worth sitting tight for now.

Marc Hulet - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#461976) #

None of the three arms back from surgery have looked good: McElvain (velo down, not sharp), Maroudis (velo down, not sharp), Barriera (velo up, control = Blass).

Not loving how the Jays development staff has handled the glut of pitchers returning from injury so far. Yes, it's early but I've seen quite a few young pitchers in other orgs come back and look much stronger.

As for the draft, Liam Doyle sounds very reliever-ish to me (high-effort delivery, 2/3 fastball usage, so-so command). And I'm always wary of draft-eligible players who have really only had one good season. Add in his questionable maturity and I'm a pass.

hypobole - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#461977) #

There are 3 reasons to add at the deadline if the team is still in contention. First, the most obvious - put the team in a position to both make the playoffs and to a lesser extent for non-elite teams, succeed in the playoffs. Second, let the players know that the FO is trying to help them. This has ramifications both the current season, to keep morale up, and following, when trying to entice FA's that will invariably be needed. Don't want to look like a "can't win, don't try" organization that constantly ends up at the bottom of player polls. Third, let the fanbase know the team is trying. Want to keep the walkup crowd numbers up.

Nigel - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#461978) #

There is also: what position/head space are you in at the deadline? If you are still wanting to throw resources in just to try to make the playoffs then a Kelly/mid rotation starter makes a lot of sense. If you are focused on trying to win playoff games then another high leverage reliever may make even more. We have seen a semi regular pattern of playoff teams recently trying to win games with what effectively amounts to bullpen games of leverage relievers.

92-93 - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#461979) #

Yimi Garcia (30ip 3hr 8bb 42k) landed the Jays Jonatan Clase last year. It really shouldn't be difficult to (attempt to) improve the bullpen with the plethora of AAAA talent in the Jays org.

uglyone - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#461981) #

It's really hard to know with all the injuries and varied performances.

Projections look like:

1. SS Bichette 116wrc+
2. 3B Barger 109wrc+
3. 1B Guerrero 143wrc+
4. C Kirk 118wrc+
5. RF Santander 114wrc+
6. DH Springer 109wrc+
7. CF Varsho 102wrc+
8. LF Lukes* 111wrc+
9. 2B Gimenez 102wrc+

B. UT Wagner 109wrc+ / Schneider 104wrc+ / Loperfido 92wrc+
B. OF Roden 108wrc+ / Clase 87wrc+ / Straw 77wrc+
B. IF Clement 102wrc+ / Jimenez 107wrc+ / Stefanic 109wrc+
B. C Heineman 94wrc+ / Bethancourt 91wrc+ / Sanchez 75wrc+

SP Gausman 5.7ip/gm, 3.90era, 3.75fip
SP Bassitt 5.7ip/gm, 3.98era, 3.98fip
SP Berrios 5.8ip/gm, 4.26era, 4.29fip
SP Scherzer 4.2ip/gm, 3.86era, 3.83fip

SP/RP Turnbull 2.2ip/gm, 4.12era, 4.05fip
SP/RP Lauer 1.7ip/gm, 4.26era, 4.39fip
SP/RP Manoah 2.1ip/gm, 4.26era, 4.28fip
SP/RP Schultz 1.2ip/gm, 4.29era, 4.20fip
SP/RP Francis 2.4ip/gm, 4.70era, 4.79fip

RP Hoffman 1.0ip/gm, 3.25era, 3.20fip
RP Little 1.0ip/gm, 3.41era, 3.56fip
RP Garcia 1.0ip/gm, 3.55era, 3.50fip
RP Burr 1.0ip/gm, 3.76era, 3.68fip
RP Fluharty 1.0ip/gm, 3.90era, 3.95fip
RP Sandlin 1.0ip/gm, 3.94era, 4.11fip
RP Rodriguez 1.0ip/gm, 4.02era, 3.94fip
RP Fisher 1.0ip/gm, 4.10era, 4.12fip

RP Bruihl 1.0ip/gm, 4.10era, 4.26fip
RP Swanson 1.0ip/gm 4.35era, 4.39fip
RP Green 1.0ip/gm, 4.36era 4.38fip

If the injury reports are all pretty good (Santander, Scherzer, Garcia, Sandlin, Burr) then it sure looks like a high-end SP would be the easiest way to upgrade the team.

That could also end up meaning using Scherzer as potentially a high leverage reliever in the playoffs.

You could argue that adding a bigtime bat in LF might make sense, but tbh if you're a lukes believer (and i am), it would probably be more efficient to find a legit lefty-masher platoon guy to pair up with him.

I don't know that i'd want to spend resources on relievers tbh - as long as the current injury reports aren't too bad.

Nigel - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#461982) #

The problem is that there may be no No 1 starters actually on the market.

Mike Green - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#461985) #

ZiPS ROS projections for the current Jay starters and Kelly:
Kelly 3.65, Scherzer 3.74, Gausman 3.81, Bassitt, 3.85, Berrios 4.14.

For comparison, here are the ZiPS ROS projections for top starters for playoff teams: Skubal 2.61, Crochet 2.98, Valdez 3.27, Fried 3.29, Rasmussen 3.33 Hunter Brown 3.51, Pepiot 4.07, Rodon 4.11, Bello 4.30, Mize 4.32.

It's quite possible that by the end of the season, Kelly will have the best projection of any of the Blue Jay starters by quite a bit.

99BlueJaysWay - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#461988) #

I continue to hold out hope that Manoah will ramp up without issue and look more like his 2021/22 self than the 2023/24 version.

greenfrog - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#461995) #

I don’t want to see Manoah pitch in the playoffs until he has firmly re-established himself as a good major-league SP.

92-93 - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#461997) #

The return will be legendary.

GabrielSyme - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#462001) #

The general challenge with improving this team through trade is that there is a lot of good enough, and not enough outstanding talent. Plus our weakest player so far, Santander, also has the most second-most money committed to him, so it's unlikely the team will commit further resources to displace him.

The biggest spot to upgrade would be the starting rotation, and I think Kelly represents a substantial upgrade both in the regular season and for a post-season rotation. I disagree that Scherzer could be a good option as a post-season reliever. If he comes back strong enough to look like a good relief option, he's probably one of our better starting pitchers. Scherzer is not a guy with wipe-out stuff anymore - he's a guy with a mix of five decent pitches and good command. That says starter to me even if he adds a tick or two to his fastball in relief.

uglyone - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#462006) #

Buffalo roster at the moment:

CF Loperfido
RF Pinango
LF Robertson
3B Wagner
SS Jimenez
2B Stefanic
1B Nunez
DH Martinez
C Bethancourt

UT Clarke
OF Tirotta
IF Rivera
C Sanchez

UT Palmegiani - was on the development list until yesterday. don't know if they can keep 14 position players rostered or not.
OF Schreck - IL
IF Kasevich - IL

So I think someone has to be dropped somehow already. And then when Varsho is healthy this week sometime a 2nd one will have to be dropped. And then when Schreck is healthy (7-day IL) a 3rd has to go. And then when Santander is healthy a 4th. I don't think Kasevich is coming back anytime soon tho.

I'm weirdly fascinated to see what happens.

Myself i hope they just let some of the older guys go - though most of those older guys are performing right now. They could decide to send a guy like Pinango back down to AA, or even Martinez for that matter, but i don't know if they'd want to do that.

greenfrog - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#462007) #

I think the price to acquire one of the best-available SPs like Kelly is going to be surprisingly high — more than what Bowden suggested. But that’s OK. The Blue Jays have a lot of talent to deal from.

It’s also worth remembering that most prospects don’t pan out. Some people were shocked by the return for Kikuchi (Bloss, Wagner, Loperfido) but currently that doesn’t seem like a huge haul of talent.

Glevin - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#462015) #

The problem is that there may be no No 1 starters actually on the market"

There probably aren't in which case getting someone with multiple years of control to replace Bassit makes some sense. Jays are not a team that should be giving up prospects for a mid-rotation rental.

Gerry - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#462017) #

Colby Martin who has been dominating in Dunedin, has been promoted to Vancouver.

greenfrog - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#462022) #

I still haven’t heard a good argument against trading two or three mid-range prospects for Kelly. The team has a relatively deep farm system; they need a SP to help them compete for a postseason spot and in the postseason; Kelly is a good SP (arguably better than any SPs they currently have); there aren’t many SPs available on the market.

It’s not as though trading for a rental this summer precludes the team from adding to their rotation in the off-season via trade or free agency.

Marc Hulet - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#462025) #

I would argue Kendry Rojas is not a mid-range prospect. He's the Jays 2nd best pitching prospect: 995-96 fastball, good control, 3 pitches that get whiffs and was ready for AA before getting hurt to start the year.

Yesavage, Rojas, King and Nimmala almost untouchable for me... and only trade Stanifer and Arias for a multi-year control players.

My next tier (Hate to lose but you gotta give something) would be Watts-Brown, Macko, Stephen, Duran, Schreck, Jimenez, Roden

Glevin - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#462027) #

The good argument is that Kelly doesn't move the needle at all and that while you shouldn't hold on to prospects for no reason, you should save them for things that make a difference. I just don't see Kelly as an improvement and there's a ton of downside with a guy who throws 92. For example, last two seasons against AL East (back of napkin addition) 27 2/3 IP, 32 H, 19 K, 11 BB, 23 ER for a 7.48 ERA. I don't think he'd be a 7.48 ERA pitcher in Toronto but I do think there's a real risk of being worse than what the Jays already have with no chance of being a frontline starter.

uglyone - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#462031) #

I like the "wrong stuff, won't be as good here" argument for Kelly tbh. Not sure which way i lean for him in particular but we've seen guys with good stats and mediocre stuff fail in this division and in the playoffs in general before.

But I think targeting a pitcher with those kinds of stats (or better) is the right thing to do.

greenfrog - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#462034) #

Yeah that’s fair. His stuff *might* be a bit short compared to some other pitchers. Counterarguments include his lengthy track record of success (including in the postseason), and the fact that the NL might now be the better league. It’s not like the old days when the AL was dominant and NL pitchers often struggled coming over to the AL.

Also, his “lesser stuff” might make him a bit easier to acquire in a trade.

hypobole - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#462065) #

Maroudis seemed to have a lot of trouble throwing strike tonight, but did get through 4 scoreless innings. How was his velo?

hypobole - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#462066) #

Never mind, 89-92 on his 4 seamer.

Marc Hulet - Saturday, June 21 2025 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#462077) #

Maroudis is back-end of the top 30 prospects until (if) he gets his stuff back.

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