Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Vancouver Just Miss the Playoffs

Vancouver won eleven games in a row down the stretch. They were 9-1 in their last ten games. They had the second best first half record in franchise history. But they missed out on the playoffs. Everett finished by winning six straight games, they were 8-2 in their last ten and they held the tie-break over Vancouver as both teams were tied.

Elsewhere Dunedin won while the big boys at the top of the system lost.

Buffalo 4 Worcester 9

Somerset 5 New Hampshire 1

Vancouver 9 Eugene 5

Dunedin 7 Clearwater 2

FCL Tigers 11 FCL Blue Jays 5

Three Stars

Third Star - Austin Cates

Second Star - Carter Cunningham

First Star - Peyton Powell

Boxes

NOTES

It was a tough night for Buffalo pitchers. Anders Tolhurst was the starter, he gave up four runs. Ryan Jennings was charged with a run in relief. Jennings has a 1.70 WHIP in AAA, partly due to a high walk rate (7 in 12 innings). But on the positive side he has 18 K's in 12 innings.

Joey Loperfido had two hits, the only Bison with two. Loperfido has been hanging in with decent, but not great numbers. He is 26 already. Orelvis had an oh-fer and his BA is back under .200. If he doesn't show some life soon he will drop off prospect lists. Yohendrick Pinango hasn't figured out AAA yet, he is hitting .211.

NH had just three hits, all singles. Grant Rogers did OK, he went six innings and struck out seven. He only gave up one earned run.

Vancouver came from behind to win 9-5. Carter Cunningham had a big night. He hit a two run home run in the sixth inning to give the C's the lead. He also singled twice. Aaron Parker also homered and doubled. Jevon Ward singled and doubled and drove in three. Arjun Nimmala was 1-4 with two walks.

Chris McElvain started but couldn't get through three innings. He was charged with five runs.

Peyton Powell had a big game for Dunedin, single, double, home run, three RBI. Austin Coates had five shutout innings with seven K's. Cates hasn't given up ore than one run in an appearance since May 6th.

In the FCL there are no hitters who are really dominating. Drew Jemison has the best numbers but he is 24. David Beckles is next but he is a 21 year old first baseman. Yorman Licourt is also 21 but at least he plays the outfield.

Posted by Gerry on Friday, June 20 2025 @ 07:03 AM EDT.

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greenfrog - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#461960) #

People used to debate which SP prospect had the best chance of panning out: Syndergaard, Sanchez or Nicolino. (Syndergaard ended up being the best, but his career was cut short by injuries.)

I wonder if we’ll see a similar debate around Yesavage, Stephen, and King (and maybe Stanifer). Yesavage has the pedigree, but the others have had very good 2025 seasons as well.

greenfrog - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#461961) #

Jim Bowden of the Athletic has proposed one trade for each AL East team. His suggested trade for Toronto is “Acquire RHP Merrill Kelly from Diamondbacks for LHP Kendry Rojas and 2B Sam Shaw.”

That seems like a reasonable trade proposal. But I think the Blue Jays will have to give up more for Kelly, given the current demand across MLB for quality starting pitching.

mendocino - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#461962) #

MLB's weekly mock draft

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-mock-draft-for-june-19-2025?t=mlb-draft-coverage

This is how Callis and Mayo see Round 1 shaking out:

1. Nationals: Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater (Okla.) HS (No. 1)
He's been No. 1 on our Draft list for some time now and still has the best chance at going No. 1 overall to the Nationals.

2. Angels: Kade Anderson, LHP, Louisiana State (No. 3)
If it isn't Holliday, Anderson has the best chance at going No. 1.

3. Mariners: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State (No. 6)
4. Rockies: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State (No. 4)
5. Cardinals: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton (Okla.) HS (No. 5)
6. Pirates: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona (Calif.) HS (No. 2)
7. Marlins: Billy Carlson, SS, Corona (Calif.) HS (No. 7)

8. Blue Jays: Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee (No. 9)
Doyle's gone as high as No. 2 in our previous mocks, but his stock is down slightly. The Blue Jays go for a guy that two, three weeks ago they didn't expect being here.

9. Reds: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma (No. 8)

10. White Sox: JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis (Miss.) HS (No. 10)
Parker's name is buzzy. He's been talked about as high as No. 2.

15. Red Sox: Ike Irish, OF/C, Auburn (No. 21)
Boston can stick Irish in the outfield and let his athleticism and bat play.

Marc Hulet - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#461963) #

I wouldn't trade the Jays 2nd best arm for a No. 4 starter who's about to be a FA and 36 years old. If everyone's healthy, he likely doesn't start in the playoffs.

Shaw, ok he doesn’t really have a defensive home, and maybe Khal Stephen... but even then it's a lot for what you're getting. The Jays already have a couple No. 4 starters and a No. 3 at the top of their rotation.

That's the problem: the Jays already have a bunch of starters that are getting old and have limited ceilings.

Glevin - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#461964) #

"Jim Bowden of the Athletic has proposed one trade for each AL East team. His suggested trade for Toronto is “Acquire RHP Merrill Kelly from Diamondbacks for LHP Kendry Rojas and 2B Sam Shaw.”

That seems like a reasonable trade proposal. But I think the Blue Jays will have to give up more for Kelly, given the current demand across MLB for quality starting pitching."

Not much interest in this kind of trade. Jays don't need rental pitching depth, they need a front-line starter or someone with that potential or at least someone under team control. I'd have WAY more interest in someone like Edward Cabrera who is a decent starter but not a free agent until 2029 and has the stuff to be a potential frontline starter. Give me Peralta for a year and a half.

greenfrog - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#461965) #

for a No. 4 starter who's about to be a FA and 36 years old

Kelly has performed better than any of the Blue Jays starting pitchers in 2025. The team would be able to confidently use him in a WC or postseason series.

Mike Green - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#461966) #

Kelly has been a very good pitcher over the last 4 years. I don't know how exactly he has done it; it seems to be about suppressing BABIP which does seem difficult to do over the long-term but 4 years is a long time. He has gone 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA over 4 post-season starts.

He isn't a conventional ace, but I think #4 starter is underselling him.

mendocino - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#461967) #

Shi Davidi

"Hard-hitting prospect Orelvis Martinez, also with the Bisons, has started taking groundballs at first base to explore another possible pathway for him to the roster, if his bat locks in."

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-crowded-outfield-an-area-of-intrigue-as-trade-deadline-looms/

Mike Green - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#461968) #

It's a good move. It may be that Martinez' defensive challenges have affected his ability to progress with the bat. It isn't that common for a shortstop at age 19 to be a fine-hitting DH/1B at age 25-26, but it's as good a bet as any with him.

greenfrog - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#461969) #

Kelly is on pace for around 4 WAR, 3.41 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 3.23 xFIP, 170-180 IP, 8.9 K/9 and 2.28 BB/9.

Those are closer to #2 SP numbers than they are to #4 SP numbers.

uglyone - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#461970) #

Looking at this last few years i'd be comfortable assuming Kelly should put up around a 90era-/fip-/xfip- in solid but not huge innnigs (i.e. around 5.75ip per start).

what was his injury last year though?

interestingly he probably doesn't project much better than Kikuchi did at the deadline last year, though obviously he's had a much more consistent track record.

Glevin - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#461971) #

Past performance doesn't predict future performance and Kelly is not the kind of guy I am going to bet on leading my team to the World Series. Just like Jose Soriano, David Peterson, Tyler Mahle, or Chris Bassit .Kelly doesn't strike out guys and gives up a lot of hard contact. Maybe he continues to find a way to maintain a 2.53 BABIP but I doubt it. If he were younger and under contract for a couple of years, fine, there's value there but giving up top prospects to go from like 3% chance of winning the WS to a 3.4% chance or something is just not worth it. Jays shouldn't be looking for rentals to begin with unless they are cheap.

greenfrog - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#461972) #

I would love to go get an ace like Skenes, but given that this is a remote possibility, I would be happy to see the Blue Jays go get a very solid SP rental like Kelly at a reasonable cost. With the team's strong defense and improving offense, Kelly could help the team perform well in the postseason. Remember, the team hasn't won a single postseason game under Atkins (apart from the Anthopoulos-constructed 2016 team). Even advancing one round would be an achievement. And pitchers get hurt all the time -- having another good SP in the rotation, and temporarily bumping someone like Lauer to #6 status, would not be a bad thing.

I think I would rather go get a good consistent high-performing arm like Kelly, rather than a high-variance big arm like Alcantara, at this point anyway.

uglyone - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#461973) #

I mean we absolutely should be in the market for rentals. Why wouldn't we be?

I'd hope that we'd try to take more advantage of our glut of decent near-MLB ready talent as trade assets instead of our younger higher ceiling guys, though. i.e. last year's deadline in reverse.

SK in NJ - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#461974) #

The Jays really need a front line starter. They have three #3-4 starters, one former ace who if healthy is probably closer to #4-5 now, and then piecing together the #5 spot with #5/depth starters. Adding another #3-4 isn't going to be a difference making move. I don't think Kelly as a rental would be a bad move necessarily, just not one that raises the ceiling of this team. Tough spot to be in. The Jays system is finally looking to be on the upswing again, so not sure the FO (even if they are fighting for their jobs) would be willing to halt that momentum. AA had one foot out the door in 2015 so he didn't care who he traded, but Shapiro could conceivably come back (if he hasn't been quietly extended already) so he might have some incentive for risk aversion.

Gerry - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#461975) #

From Geoff Pontes at BA:

Is there concern with Landen Maroudis? He was sitting 88-90 his last start, way down from last year.

GP: Absolutely, the feedback wasn’t great in the last rounds of reporting. It feels like he’s still struggling to recover from the surgery. He’s so young and it’s so early, it’s probably worth sitting tight for now.

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